Go for 2?

[mannc]

Anyone think Marrone should have gone for 2 after the Goodwin TD? I doubt any NFL coaches would have, but it's not a bad move if you think your chances of making the deuce are better than winning in OT. Not saying Marrone should have gone for it, but it would have been defensible, at least.

[bowery4]

I thought about too, could do a fake in that situation, Moorman is back. But seriously, after not being able to score the TD and giving the ball up on downs, no.

[CSBill]

I had the same thought, but then I remembered, we were at the one yard line with four chances earlier in the game . . . and how did that turn out?

[cage]

I am an advocate for that strategy at times, but I don't think I would have done it yesterday. The D had found its way by the 4th quarter and it was reasonable to expect that they could have won in OT. In fact they did get the stop in OT period, but the offense couldn't move and then ST gave up a big return.

[ganesh]

I am an advocate for that strategy at times, but I don't think I would have done it yesterday. The D had found its way by the 4th quarter and it was reasonable to expect that they could have won in OT. In fact they did get the stop in OT period, but the offense couldn't move and then ST gave up a big return.

 

To be fair to the offense, they were pinned deep in their own territory/ The chance of them moving the sticks was pretty low.

[J-Bo]

Absolutely not.

[mannc]

I thought about too, could do a fake in that situation, Moorman is back. But seriously, after not being able to score the TD and giving the ball up on downs, no.

I had not thought about a fake kick on the extra point. That might have been sweet. Doubt the Bengals would have been expecting it.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Absolutely not.

 

Absolutely yes (in hindsight!)

[CountryCletus]

Not a chance! Momentum was clearly on our side...

[Max997]

I actually thought about that only bc it was a game they shouldnt even have been in at that point but they had all the momentum so why not ride it into OT

[papazoid]

not with a 1:08 left on the clock.

 

if there was like 10 seconds, then yes.

[mannc]

not with a 1:08 left on the clock.

 

if there was like 10 seconds, then yes.

Why would that matter?

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Anyone think Marrone should have gone for 2 after the Goodwin TD? I doubt any NFL coaches would have, but it's not a bad move if you think your chances of making the deuce are better than winning in OT. Not saying Marrone should have gone for it, but it would have been defensible, at least.

lose now or lose later

 

hmmmmmm

[Boatdrinks]

Normally I would say absolutely not. If I had known that Hackett would turtle if given anything less than ideal field position in OT I'd say yes. Your statistical chances of making it are probably higher than that no guts series in OT and you could always do an onside kick if you don' make it. The book says extend the game, but I guess I was hoping for more agrressive offense to follow in the OT vs the complete no balls playcalling I should have expected. I mean, playing for punting room is not advised in OT, yet he went against the book there. Screw it, why not.

[Steve O]

Pretty sure Cinci was out of timeouts, so they would not have been able to change who was in. Like the chances of converting the deuce better than winning the coin flip. So yes, I was hoping we would go for two. Especially in hindsight.

[ALLEN1QB]

It didn't cross my mind but I like how you think.Good idea.

Edited October 14, 2013 by BLEDSOE1QB

[Nathan]

In hindsight would have been a great call, especially given how terrible our one offensive series was in OT.

[Bangarang]

No. Tie the game.

[Webster Guy]

Pretty sure Cinci was out of timeouts, so they would not have been able to change who was in. Like the chances of converting the deuce better than winning the coin flip. So yes, I was hoping we would go for two. Especially in hindsight.

 

The NFL conversion percentage of 2 pointers is 48% since they've adopted it in the big leagues.

 

I love how people say "absolutely not" without thinking. You are 7 point underdog at home and you have a QB in his 2nd nfl start. Your secondary is playing poorly and for the first time all year your kick coverage is looking weak.

 

When you flip a coin you have a 50% chance of winning the toss (unless you're the Saints, who have lost a remarkable 11 straight coin flips at the outset of their games)

 

I don't know what the new percentages are with the 2 year old rule that a field goal doesn't win it automatically, but it's safe to say that you have a greater chance of winning if you win the overtime toss. It used to be 60% of the teams in OT that win the coin toss win the game. It's lower with the rule change, say 52% of the teams that win the coin toss win the game.

 

With that in mind, you are looking at a virtual push here probability-wise. Flip a coin or go for 2. The same odds, it just depends on if you feel like extending the game, how are your injuries? weather? do you have a 2pt conversion play that you feel confident in based on the personnel they have and you have? Did you have a long week (we had a 10 day break) where maybe you were able to put in a special play for this situation? Does the other team have a time out for personnel change?

 

It's a great question for the logical thinker, and a long way from "absolutely not"......

 

In hindsight, we lost the game in OT, played poorly and never really had a chance. Maybe one play where we dictate the outcome of the game instead of them would have ended in a different result.

[BuffOrange]

No. The time to go for 2 was after the Chandler TD. That's another thing no coach ever does though.

[DC Greg]

Obviously the book says no, absolutely not, tie the game and go to OT. But I just had that creeping feeling that I wanted them to go for 2, because I didn't think OT was going to go our way. I don't want to want them to go for 2 in that situation... I want the team to get good enough where I am confident in their ability to win those games at the end or in OT.

[Bills Fan since '64]

I know it's against the Football Bible, but I'd have loved to see the Bills go for 2 to win the game after Goodwin's touchdown. I'll bet the odds of converting a 2 are no worse than the odds of winning (conversion rates on the 2 point try are near 50%; winning a game in overtime with a UDFA quarterback and your best receiver out and your defense having a bad day is probably less than a 50/50 proposition).

[MyHorseAteTheKid]

Could you imagine the fan reaction to not making the 2 pointer after going for it on 4th and goal???

[Bills Fan since '64]

With Moorman back, they should have faked the PAT and thrown for the score. Remember this one? http://www.nfl.com/v...ay-Sneaky-Bills

 

By the way, Ryan Denney, who caught that pass, is a Mormon, which made this possibly the first Moorman-to-Mormon TD pass in NFL history.

Edited October 15, 2013 by Bills Fan since '64

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

We still had 3 timeouts and a minute left, so I thought the same thing. We can always try the onside kick if it fails.

[mannc]

Could you imagine the fan reaction to not making the 2 pointer after going for it on 4th and goal???

It would have been a ballsy call, for sure. I can only recall two instances of an NFL team doing it at the end of a game to try for the win instead of OT. I think it succeeded once and failed once, but I don't recall which coaches or teams did it. It was in the last couple years, though. Maybe someone else can help me out here.

[HeHateMe]

This board would have imploded if they did that and didn't get it.

 

You would all call for Marone's head on a stake.

[mannc]

This board would have imploded if they did that and didn't get it.

 

You would all call for Marone's head on a stake.

And if it succeeded, it would be seen as a sign that the era of "safe", timid, play-not-to-lose decision-making by Bills' coaches had come to an end.

[BuffOrange]

It would have been a ballsy call, for sure. I can only recall two instances of an NFL team doing it at the end of a game to try for the win instead of OT. I think it succeeded once and failed once, but I don't recall which coaches or teams did it. It was in the last couple years, though. Maybe someone else can help me out here.

 

Pretty sure Mike Tice did it in New Orleans when he was on his way out the door in Minny.

 

I think it's pretty rare that an NFL team is appreciably less than 50% to win a game in OT though; unless they're lightyears inferior and benefited from a series of miracles in regulation (a blocked punt, a fumble return for TD, etc).

Again the time to go for 2 is when you're down 8.

[l< j]

 

By the way, Ryan Denney, who caught that pass, is a Mormon, which made this possibly the first Moorman-to-Mormon TD pass in NFL history.

 

Awesome.

 

We need an official Department of Obscure Research at TBD. With their own office and everything. I bet there's room in the budget.

[Steve O]

The NFL conversion percentage of 2 pointers is 48% since they've adopted it in the big leagues.

 

I love how people say "absolutely not" without thinking. You are 7 point underdog at home and you have a QB in his 2nd nfl start. Your secondary is playing poorly and for the first time all year your kick coverage is looking weak.

 

When you flip a coin you have a 50% chance of winning the toss (unless you're the Saints, who have lost a remarkable 11 straight coin flips at the outset of their games)

 

I don't know what the new percentages are with the 2 year old rule that a field goal doesn't win it automatically, but it's safe to say that you have a greater chance of winning if you win the overtime toss. It used to be 60% of the teams in OT that win the coin toss win the game. It's lower with the rule change, say 52% of the teams that win the coin toss win the game.

 

With that in mind, you are looking at a virtual push here probability-wise. Flip a coin or go for 2. The same odds, it just depends on if you feel like extending the game, how are your injuries? weather? do you have a 2pt conversion play that you feel confident in based on the personnel they have and you have? Did you have a long week (we had a 10 day break) where maybe you were able to put in a special play for this situation? Does the other team have a time out for personnel change?

 

It's a great question for the logical thinker, and a long way from "absolutely not"......

 

In hindsight, we lost the game in OT, played poorly and never really had a chance. Maybe one play where we dictate the outcome of the game instead of them would have ended in a different result.

I probably didn't elaborate enough on my train of thought for agreeing with the go for two philosophy. The 48% success rate you reference is based in large part on scenario's where the defense is expecting the 2-point attempt..the scoring team down by 2 or up by 1 in the fourth quarter where it really wouldn't make sense to go for one. Cinci would have been caught at least a little by surprise by a two point attempt and without any timeouts would not have been able to adjust. Also, building on your 7 point underdog point, had we gone for two at least the outcome of the game would have been in our own hands rather than a coin flip (even though you point out that winning the flip does not mean winning the game I like the odds). And again, hindsight is 20/20.

[BillsFan130]

not with a 1:08 left on the clock.

 

if there was like 10 seconds, then yes.

perfectly said

[djp14150]

Anyone think Marrone should have gone for 2 after the Goodwin TD? I doubt any NFL coaches would have, but it's not a bad move if you think your chances of making the deuce are better than winning in OT. Not saying Marrone should have gone for it, but it would have been defensible, at least.

 

 

Im sure this crossed his mind. He may have done this if on the road instead of at home.

 

also it was early in the season to do that. Its the kind of call you do later in the season if you have nothing to lose because you were out of the playoffs but taking on an in the hunt for a playoff team.

[Sig1Hunter]

Maybe go for 2 after the Chandler TD? If you fail, you have a second shot at the 2 to tie it on Goodwins TD. If you get it the first time, you are in the catbird seat to win it on Goodwins TD.

[Leelee Phoenix]

Anyone think Marrone should have gone for 2 after the Goodwin TD? I doubt any NFL coaches would have, but it's not a bad move if you think your chances of making the deuce are better than winning in OT.

Odds of converting a two-pointer when the defense is expecting it, is roughly 35-40%

 

It's tempting if you have a play you really believe in, but kicking is the prudent choice.

[Wazzu Bill]

Is it just the nature of being a bills fan or did everybody know going into that OT we were going to lose? No team in their right mind would go for 2, but bills fans knew in their hearts that the odds of scoring 2 may be better than OT =/

[reddogblitz]

no

[Charles Romes]

If there were no time left when goodwin scores you think about it since it wins the game. 15 seconds is all you need for a field goal drive. I was glad they went for 1 since they did not have to stop a go for broke field goal drive, just a Ho hum conservative field goal drive.

[mannc]

 

I probably didn't elaborate enough on my train of thought for agreeing with the go for two philosophy. The 48% success rate you reference is based in large part on scenario's where the defense is expecting the 2-point attempt..the scoring team down by 2 or up by 1 in the fourth quarter where it really wouldn't make sense to go for one. Cinci would have been caught at least a little by surprise by a two point attempt and without any timeouts would not have been able to adjust. Also, building on your 7 point underdog point, had we gone for two at least the outcome of the game would have been in our own hands rather than a coin flip (even though you point out that winning the flip does not mean winning the game I like the odds). And again, hindsight is 20/20.

Good post. I wonder what the odds are if you line up for the kick and fake it. Probably not enough data points. At the college level, I have seen Oregon succeed regularly with fake kick, two point conversions. With the way our special teams have performed this year, i 'm sure something would have gone wrong.

[peterlaw]

I'm thinking about the 2pt conversion Statue of Liberty play run by Boise State to win the Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma. That would have been a sweet way to win against the Bengals.