D521646 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Don't know about anyone else, but it seemed to me that deferring on the kickoff was ill conceived last year and the years under Gailey. It almost always put us in the hole early, and IMO having the ball in the second half was not enough to justify the strategy. Take the damn ball if we win the toss, attempt to put pressure on the opposing team with a 7 point lead. What say you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I agree based off the last several years. Belichick and his staff did a much better job then the Bills coaching staffs making adjustments at half time. I would take the ball and let EJ and the O have a crack at NE. Let EJ get in rythm early with some high percentage throws and let him hand the ball of to CJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D521646 Posted September 6, 2013 Author Share Posted September 6, 2013 My guess is that BB will make EJ beat them in the air by loading the box, and until he can do that, that's what we can expect from the Patriots come Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 There are a number of interesting articles about the decision to receive or defer. Below is one of them. From the stats cited in the article, it seems that team that choose to receive the kickoff first on winning coin toss actually do less well than those who defer. "....Since the start of the 2010 season, flip-winning clubs that have opted to receive first are 185-209 (.470), versus 140-115 (.549) for those deferring." Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/jim_trotter/11/15/coin-flips/index.html#ixzz2e7tTvwPG link to SI article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Always take the ball to start the second half, I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I always want the ball to start the 2nd half...always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D521646 Posted September 6, 2013 Author Share Posted September 6, 2013 Interesting, I would have thought that most would choose to take the ball in the first half? Of course this is all predicated on the principle that we actually score with our first possession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Interesting, I would have thought that most would choose to take the ball in the first half? Of course this is all predicated on the principle that we actually score with our first possession. I just think I'd rather have the ball after seeing the other team's game plan and being able to make adjustments. I also like the idea of being able to either keep or wrest back momentum with a score to open the 2nd half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonInBuffalo Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 During my years as a season ticket holder, I lost count of the number of times the visiting team took the 2nd half kickoff and marched down the field and scored while the stands were still half empty. (people still finishing their smoke breaks, waiting in beer lines, ...) That alone may be justifiable reason to always defer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I always want the ball to start the 2nd half...always. I hear you that is the rule. Just like you do not go for 2 until the fourth quarter. But when you have watched one set of coaches constantly out coach another with adjustments at half, i think it is time to change it up. You also send another message to your rookie by taking it in the first that you have confidence in him. Marrone being an o minded guy might just do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D521646 Posted September 6, 2013 Author Share Posted September 6, 2013 Well the Broncos deferred last night and it worked out well, but, but, well they do have this QB named Manning, so perhaps not a good gauge for the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Deferring makes sense, as taking the ball after halftime allows that team to take "first" opportunity of halftime adjustments. Furthermore, it gives one team the opportunity to have two consecutive drives (ending the 1st half, beginning the 2nd). I have no problem whatsoever with a strategy to defer 100% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladiebla Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Interesting, I would have thought that most would choose to take the ball in the first half? Of course this is all predicated on the principle that we actually score with our first possession. Statistically you'll get more possesions by defering. Still I think the morale part of it outweighs the statistical probaility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I am much more interested to find out whether Marrone will break with the pathetic Bills' coaching traditions of punting from inside the other team's territory, not going for it on 4th down, and failing to go for 2-point conversions when appropriate. He talks like a confident coach, but let's see if his decision-making backs that up. Perhaps some Syracuse fans will chime in regarding his game-day decisions when he coached the Orangemen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FluffHead Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I like to take the ball if I think we are the worse team. When that is the case, if you can get points on the opening drive, it really makes your team believe. If I think we are the favorite and our team believes we will win, ill defer and take the possession to start the second half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPS Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Deferring makes sense most of the time. But I'd love to see the Bills set the tone with a huge return against the new ST of the Pats. Forget smart. Let's be aggressive. Of course, a touchback screws it up...., but I'd love to hear that stadium at 1:20 pm after a Bills KO return for a TD. Play your strengths and play them early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I had some more thoughts on this topic, but I will defer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nemhoff Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Take the freaking kick off and go get 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D521646 Posted September 6, 2013 Author Share Posted September 6, 2013 I had some more thoughts on this topic, but I will defer. Took you that long to come up with that? You're slipping eball.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 (edited) take the damn ball!!! IIRC one advantage of deffering is to select which way to face in the 2nd half (4th) into the sun (if it's out) or into the wind, (that always changes in Buffalo) If you want the ball so bad in the 3rd qtr take it away from them in 3 plays or less. Edited September 6, 2013 by BillsFan-4-Ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fridge Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Just win (the coin toss) baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Defer. We have a new D in town, and I want to see what they can do to Brady and the Cheaties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koufax Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Statistically and logically deferring is the choice. Plus playing your home opener and having the start of the game excitement, one defensive stop with a loud crowd can really get things moving in the momentum category, and one three and out doesn't take the wind out of your sails. I'm hoping for a flashback to Takeo Spikes first game after his injury to start the 2006 season. If Brady scores a touchdown it is expected, and doesn't really ruin the day, but any sort of stop or turnover can really energize the whole start of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Statistically you'll get more possesions by defering. Still I think the morale part of it outweighs the statistical probaility. You're not taking into account the probability of the morale aspect not working by not being successful with the first possession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Statistically and logically deferring is the choice. Plus playing your home opener and having the start of the game excitement, one defensive stop with a loud crowd can really get things moving in the momentum category, and one three and out doesn't take the wind out of your sails. I'm hoping for a flashback to Takeo Spikes first game after his injury to start the 2006 season. If Brady scores a touchdown it is expected, and doesn't really ruin the day, but any sort of stop or turnover can really energize the whole start of the game. I agree with this. NE scores, no effect. We stop them and sack Brady, or better get a TD on D, the place goes crazy. Major momentum shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I wonder with rules changing where more kickoffs are now being touched back will change the old thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Just win (the coin toss) baby! Wasn't it either Dick Jauron's last year, or JP Losmans last year, we won something like 10 straight coin tosses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Best Player Available Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Wasn't it either Dick Jauron's last year, or JP Losmans last year, we won something like 10 straight coin tosses? At least we won something that year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biglukes Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I usually always prefer to defer. Especially in the home opener. The crowd is fired up, the team is fired up. Keep the energy and the noise going strong instead of immediately quieting down for the offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwight in philly Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I agree with this. NE scores, no effect. We stop them and sack Brady, or better get a TD on D, the place goes crazy. Major momentum shift. count me in also, the crowd needs to stay in the game after the initial pre-game intros, letting the D go and hopefully stop them, get T/O, whatever, gets the crowd amped further. taking the ball has obvious advantages, but the crowd effect will subside if we do. we can all analyze , but my concern is having the team feed off the crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Always defer. Rookie QB starting his first game-- no brainier to defer. He's going to come out jittery and prob go 3 and out on his first drive anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsMagic1 Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Defer. We have a new D in town, and I want to see what they can do to Brady and the Cheaties. I concur let's do defer!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
run dat back Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Don't know about anyone else, but it seemed to me that deferring on the kickoff was ill conceived last year and the years under Gailey. It almost always put us in the hole early, and IMO having the ball in the second half was not enough to justify the strategy. Take the damn ball if we win the toss, attempt to put pressure on the opposing team with a 7 point lead. What say you? I agree. Bills D couldn't stop a check, yet we're giving the ball to the other team for a virtually guaranteed score. By the time we're getting the ball first in the 2nd half, we're down two TDs at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Always defer. It gives you the opportunity for 2 consecutive possessions, i.e. 2 consecutive scores. Plus it allows you to choose when to have the wind or sun at your back which can be a nice edge. You can get just as much momentum from stopping them on the opening drive and then scoring as you can scoring first, then stopping them. Either way you have to score AND stop them from scoring. So that entire argument is a wash either way. Its not about who wins the first drive. It's about who wins the entire game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HankBulloughMellencamp Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Always defer. It gives you the opportunity for 2 consecutive possessions, i.e. 2 consecutive scores. Plus it allows you to choose when to have the wind or sun at your back which can be a nice edge. You can get just as much momentum from stopping them on the opening drive and then scoring as you can scoring first, then stopping them. Either way you have to score AND stop them from scoring. So that entire argument is a wash either way. Its not about who wins the first drive. It's about who wins the entire game. Could not agree more. Always defer. The chance for two consecutive possessions is a huge point. The most important possession of the game is the first possession of the 3rd quarter - it sets the tone for the rest of the game. Having the ability to control the ball (or at least punt it and flip field position) is why deferring is always worth it. Football's version of "last ups" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Peyton deferred last night and then threw 7 TD's..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinii Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Always take the ball to start the second half, I say. For multiple reasons teams generally do what The Big Cat says! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUNCH OF MULARKEY Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Always defer. It gives you the opportunity for 2 consecutive possessions, i.e. 2 consecutive scores. Plus it allows you to choose when to have the wind or sun at your back which can be a nice edge. You can get just as much momentum from stopping them on the opening drive and then scoring as you can scoring first, then stopping them. Either way you have to score AND stop them from scoring. So that entire argument is a wash either way. Its not about who wins the first drive. It's about who wins the entire game. If its windy deferring lets ya choose to have the wind at your back in the fourth quarter, at the Ralph it will backfire cause it swirls so bad in there. I hope we don't miss Lindell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinii Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 During my years as a season ticket holder, I lost count of the number of times the visiting team took the 2nd half kickoff and marched down the field and scored while the stands were still half empty. (people still finishing their smoke breaks, waiting in beer lines, ...) That alone may be justifiable reason to always defer. Precisely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Even back in the day, I was always one to NOT want to receive. People always thought it was stupid. You should always want the ball to start the 2nd half and get to choose what endzone to defend, this sets your team up for the wind in the 4th. Another thing... ALWAYS put your D on the field first. The D can score too! If its windy deferring lets ya choose to have the wind at your back in the fourth quarter, at the Ralph it will backfire cause it swirls so bad in there. I hope we don't miss Lindell... Unless you got Drew Bledsoe making "executive decisions" @ the last second! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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