How many wins do the Bills get without Josh?

[mjt328]

Last season, the worst offense in the entire league (Cleveland) averaged just over 15 points per game.

The Bills defense allowed less than 15 points a total of six times.

 

Last season, the offensive league average in points was around 22 points per game.

The Bills defense allowed less than 22 points a total of ten times.

 

We know the Bills defense underperforms badly in the postseason against the NFL's elite passers.  But in the regular season, they don't play those guys very often.  In the regular season, this defense is consistently a Top 5-10 unit.  So if you just start with that side of the ball, it's totally reasonable to say this team could win about 8 games... assuming they get an average performance from the offense (as you stipulated).  I will also remind everyone that Sean McDermott walked into the locker room and coached this team to a 9-7 record in his first year, with Tyrod Taylor at QB.

 

Now would this team get an "average" offensive performance with Mitch Trubisky as the starting QB?  Very unlikely.

 

[JROC INTEL]

11 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

I see where this is going.  I agree.  I would trade 4 first rounders for Burrow to fill this glaring hole. 

As talented as the guy is, I personally don’t like his attitude and body language. Reminds me a lot of cam newton or aaron Rodgers, very off putting.

[Bill from NYC]

59 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

I see where this is going.  I agree.  I would trade 4 first rounders for Burrow to fill this glaring hole. 

No way! We need them to draft cornerbacks.

[damj]

9 hours ago, Draconator said:

2112

We have assumed control

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Replace McDermott with Reid and Bills have 2 superbowls 

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

Replace McDermott with Reid and Bills have 2 superbowls 

Andy Reid got fired because he got pegged as the guy who couldn't win the big one 

 

He had absolutely insane rosters for years which were absolutely good enough to win the super bowls and he didn't which is why he was fired 

 

Players and coaches grow... Andy Reid is not foolproof.. I have seen him get out coached with my own eyes before

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, mjt328 said:

We know the Bills defense underperforms badly in the postseason against the NFL's elite passers.  But in the regular season, they don't play those guys very often.  In the regular season, this defense is consistently a Top 5-10 unit.  So if you just start with that side of the ball, it's totally reasonable to say this team could win about 8 games... assuming they get an average performance from the offense (as you stipulated).  I will also remind everyone that Sean McDermott walked into the locker room and coached this team to a 9-7 record in his first year, with Tyrod Taylor at QB.

 

I assume the question is referring to last year. The 2017 Bills facing last year's schedule would absolutely not have gone 9-7 and made the wildcard. I would say 7-9 at best. The competition in the AFC has gotten a lot tougher since then and we're playing a 1st place schedule.

[MikePJ76]

Maybe don’t tempt fate with question like this?

[The Frankish Reich]

Well, there’s 2 different scenarios here. 
A. Tour starting QB goes down for the season in the first series. Aaron Rodgers. The offense is, at least in theory, built around his skill set. And he occupies a ton of salary space so your backup isn’t a really good backup. Disaster. 
B. Your GM decides it’s just not worth paying Kirk Cousins that kind of money. So you bring in a first rounder and take a flyer on a once highly-regarded and still youngish QB. Sam Darnold does just fine thank you because Cousins wasn’t that good after all, and because Darnold had something in him after all. 

[QB Bills]

I pray we never find out. A lot of you grossly overrate the talent on this roster outside of Josh Allen. And it's not like there's a heady coach leading the way to mask this. 

 

Also, let's not compare this team to the Pats the year Brady got hurt. That was a loaded roster coming off an almost unbeaten season. Their top receiver was Randy Moss. The Bills top receiver this year is closer to Kate Moss than Randy.

[klos63]

11 hours ago, Another Fan said:

Or I’ll just say for the sake of argument average quarterback play.  
 

I’d say only 8 or 9.  
 

Point being I think too much is still put on his shoulders to carry the team.  

That's what we pay him for.  I dont think too much is on his shoulders,  it's just the right amount for a superstar QB, but we also spent high picks on Cook, Coleman, Torrence, Brown... to help. 

He's got big shoulders,  nothing to worry about. 

[Victory Formation]

Without Josh?? 6-7 wins tops..

[Augie]

10 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Without Josh?? 6-7 wins tops..

 

We will still have A QB, it won’t be a power play. A decent replacement and we would adjust and do better than that, IMO. 

 

As great as Josh is, and I love him like everyone else, but I feel that some people see it like it’s all on him, and he does it despite the coaching. We have a team around him, and I feel like it’s disrespectful of them and the coaching staff to get so little credit. Josh makes us GREAT, but they are pretty darned good too. 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

As far as off season thread topics go, this one is in the top 10%…

I'm just excited we got @DaBillsFanSince1973 to say 2 words. 

[Augie]

2 hours ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

Replace McDermott with Reid and Bills have 2 superbowls 

 

I don’t think that’s actually allowed.   

 

.

Edited 2 hours ago by Augie

[julian]

12 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Take away JA17 and this is a 5-6 win team if you are being objective.  The OL is the only unit on the team that is above average and it’s certain that JA pads their stats a little by being nearly impossible to sack.  The WRs are a pathetically weak group, TEs are average (with potential for better), RBs are good, but again, make them the focal point by taking away JA, they aren’t carrying anything. 
 

The defense is mediocre against good teams and if teams felt comfortable running and imposing their will, not fearing JA putting 30+ on them, they get mauled.  I have hopes for the DL being better and helping the LBs be able to move around and be effective again.  Thats all speculation at this point and the secondary is a huge question mark, we know of exactly two guys who would be starters on other teams.  Maybe the draft has made that better, maybe not.  
 

JA makes this team, it’s not a question and it’s not debatable in my eyes.  He IS the most VALUABLE player to any team in the league.  
 

I feel he is worth 2-3 more wins than Mahomes is to KC and I’d say 4-5 more than Jackson for Baltimore.  Baltimore was still reasonable before Henry, with guys that can’t even win back up jobs now.

This is about as spot on as any post I’ve read recently, for some fans unfortunately they won’t realize just how much of a force Allen is until he’s gone.