New Buscaglia mock has Bills trading up to 7 for Malik Nabers

[Logic]

For those who don't want to pay the totally-worth-it $1.99 per month to subscribe to the Athletic (can you even get a pack of gum for that any more?), here's Joe Buscaglia's latest 7 round Bills mock draft. I gotta say, if this happened, I might cry tears of joy.

https://theathletic.com/5391796/2024/04/05/buffalo-bills-mock-draft-stefon-diggs-trade/

 

TRADE!

Tennessee Titans trade Nos. 7, 182 to Bills for Nos. 28, 60, 133 and 2025 1st

The pick at No. 7: Bills – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

I continue to believe that anything, including a move like this one on draft day, is a real possibility for the Bills. Beane has long been an aggressive draft-day trader when he’s excited about a prospect and how he’d fit their system. Now, with a gaping hole for a top target at wide receiver and where the Bills are in their build, this is the type of move Beane could rationalize as one that puts them over the top for the foreseeable future.

The cost of doing business might be high for some, which is understandable. I’m sure it will evoke memories of the Bills’ move up the board to take Sammy Watkins in 2014. But this is an entirely different situation from 2014 — almost comically so. Back then, it was the desperate move of a franchise hoping Watkins would help EJ Manuel become the franchise quarterback while blatantly ignoring several warning signs he was not that player. Now, there’s nothing for their quarterback to prove. The Bills have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen, a still-talented roster around him, and a pretty good idea that they’ll be pushing for the playoffs at the very least in 2024.

By arming him with a young receiver with elite potential on a rookie deal for the next four years, it gives the Bills a lot of flexibility for how they spend through the duration of the receiver’s rookie deal. I’d liken this move more to the one the Atlanta Falcons made in 2011 to fly up the board and select Julio Jones, already with a top quarterback in Matt Ryan in place. They certainly didn’t regret that trade for a second.

 

The recent trade of Diggs, and acquiring the Vikings’ 2025 2nd from the Texans, could empower Beane to make a stark move up the board like this one, too. With an extremely unsettled quarterback room — either starting journeyman backup Sam Darnold or a rookie — that pick has a good chance of turning into an early second-round selection. If that does happen, the Bills could easily get themselves back at the end of the first round next year, or just view their early second-round pick as their first-round pick replacement for dealing it away to get a potential game-changing receiver. For the right player, Beane will move a first-round pick.

 

Is Nabers worth this type of move? In a more standard draft year, Nabers would easily be the best receiver prospect by a wide margin and likely one of the first players selected. He is outrageously talented and smooth, with the explosiveness to win however the Bills ask him to. The separation is effortless whether he’s at X, Z or slot and he gets the defender to bite at his breakdown constantly. He can win with physicality or speed and will eat cushion from off-defenders alive. Nabers has excellent, crisp footwork, and his contested catch concentration is simply outstanding. On top of it all, he can be a monster with yards after the catch, either using physicality to drag defenders or his 4.35 speed to blow up a play.

Nabers has all the potential to be a star in the NFL, and with one of the league’s best quarterbacks in Allen, it increases that likelihood by a large margin. Nabers is worth the hype. But would he make everyone forget about the price tag? It certainly looks like he has all the potential to do so. And with the Bills looking like they’ll have cap space to work with in 2025, it could be the catalyst to another push toward the top of the AFC.


Rest of draft:

 

[billieve420]

Team better be right if they make a move like this as there is a number of holes to fill. Not sure if that would be something I would personally do. I would rather take slow approach even if we end up being slightly worse off this year. 

[FLFan]

I am no expert and will defer to those who study this in detail, but Nabers looks like the real deal to me and looks to be a very good fit for the Bills.  I think if Beane pulled this off we would be forgetting about Diggs in no time.  This is a high price but solidifies that WR spot for the next 5 years and immediately makes the Bills offense more dangerous than they have been in at least the past year.  Worth the risk.  

[gonzo1105]

No way Cole Bishop falls to the end of the 4th 

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

Team better be right if they make a move like this as there is a number of holes to fill. Not sure if that would be something I would personally do. I would rather take slow approach even if we end up being slightly worse off this year. 

I understand your point of view.

Personally, I think we've seen what it's like to have a bunch of good to above average players and not enough GREAT players on the roster. It gets us to the Divisional round, and then we lose to a team with more GREAT players.

Me? I want more GREAT players around Josh Allen, and Nabers has the potential for greatness.

Give me one elite, blue chip playmaker with the potential for GREATNESS over a handful of potentially GOOD players, all day long and twice on Sundays.

[BBFL]

Would rather they hold on to 60 personally and move up to the teens and get a possible falling Odunze or Thomas Jr. 
 

Nabers looks to be the real deal but there’s a lot of talent in this draft that would even allow you to double dip if you can hang on to 60. They likely wont, but you never know. 

 

Just now, Logic said:

I understand your point of view.

Personally, I think we've seen what it's like to have a bunch of good to above average players and not enough GREAT players on the roster. It gets us to the Divisional round, and then we lose to a team with more GREAT players.

Me? I want more GREAT players around Josh Allen, and Nabers has the potential for greatness.

Give me one elite, blue chip playmaker with the potential for GREATNESS over a handful of potentially GOOD players, all day long and twice on Sundays.

 

That’s actually a reasonable stance and I can’t go against the logic you’ve displayed here. 

[Bruffalo]

I really don't like the idea of losing this year's second round pick, but I'm okay with moving up for a top WR talent.  

1 minute ago, BBFL said:

Would rather they hold on to 60 personally and move up to the teens and get a possible falling Odunze or Thomas Jr. 
 

Nabers looks to be the real deal but there’s a lot of talent in this draft that would even allow you to double dip if you can hang on to 60. They likely wont, but you never know. 

 

 

That’s actually a reasonable stance and I can’t go against the logic you’ve displayed here. 

Double dipping is where I'm at too. I think it makes more sense.  Give me a AD Mitchell and Franklin/Legette/Polk/McConkey. You've got so much talent then. 

 

If they do move up, I want to see them go get a low-risk high reward FA like Thomas. 

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

I understand your point of view.

Personally, I think we've seen what it's like to have a bunch of good to above average players and not enough GREAT players on the roster. It gets us to the Divisional round, and then we lose to a team with more GREAT players.

Me? I want more GREAT players around Josh Allen, and Nabers has the potential for greatness.

Give me one elite, blue chip playmaker with the potential for GREATNESS over a handful of potentially GOOD players, all day long and twice on Sundays.

Great point. 
 

Why have we lost to KC in the playoffs?

 

Allen & Mahomes cancel each other out. 
 

Chris Jones has made big plays in every game and Kelce (Hill before the trade) always step up their game. 
 

Who on our Defense has consistently stepped up in the postseason?

 

Who on our Offense has consistently stepped up in the postseason?

 

The answer to both of those questions is nobody.   A play here, a big game there, but Josh Allen hasn’t had anyone on this team that year in/year out, he goes into the postseason knowing he’s got dudes ready to ball out.  
 

That has to change. 

[Warriorspikes51]

This is very interesting.  Joe B is usually pretty plugged in. 

I would prefer to try and keep 60 and give up one of our 2nds next year.  They can have our higher 4th this year to make up for that 

 

28, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd 

[Logic]

The other reason I like this trade -- aside from Nabers being an absolute dawg -- is that the Bills still have a full slate of picks this year. 

Look at the draft results above. They still walk out of the draft with 9 players. 

Then, even in 2025, they lack a 1st, but have two 2nds, one of which could be very early in the round.

In the trade outlined in this mock, they'd be getting an elite prospect, still drafting a full draft's worth of players this year, AND still having a full slate worth of picks (albeit with an extra 2nd instead of a 1st) next year.

How could anyone not want to do that?

[Chicken Boo]

Wouldn't complain at all.  This is our Ja'Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson (LSU pun intended).

[NewEra]

I’d do that in a heartbeat 

[Nephilim17]

Haven't consulted the latest trade chart, but I'm surprised that Bills picks are enough for 7th overall and 182 this year.

[Logic]

Just now, NewEra said:

I’d do that in a heartbeat 

Me too. I'd even throw in a handy.

[TOboy]

I’d do this in a heartbeat! Nabers is the type of guy a team like this doesn’t get to add. He’s a top of the draft and likely top of the league receiver with elite traits. A guy that could potentially be better than Diggs was, and we’d have him on a rookie deal. You do it and don’t look back for a second. 
 

As for the other holes on the roster, like many I went into last year thinking we were too weak at MLB. I’m not saying we a TB at S or DT to come in and play at a pro bowl level, but I trust in Beane and McDermott to fill those holes. 

[H2o]

I would take Nabers every day of the week and twice on Sunday. 

[Warriorspikes51]

Not to pour water on this campfire, but Nabers was "live" on his social media yesterday after his visit with the Chargers  in LA talking to a realtor and viewing the ocean from a spectacular patio 

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

Me too. I'd even throw in a handy.

A two-handy!

[Buffalo_Stampede]

[Logic]

1 minute ago, Nephilim17 said:

Haven't consulted the latest trade chart, but I'm surprised that Bills picks are enough for 7th overall and 182 this year.

I feel like it heavily depends on which trade chart you use. The Jimmy Johnson chart or the Rich Hill chart.

Either way, they're both just guides, and we see NFL GMs buck their wisdom every year.

But even if the Bills needed to throw in an extra later round pick, or didn't get the 182 back in the trade, I'd STILL make this move.

[TOboy]

9 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

This is very interesting.  Joe B is usually pretty plugged in. 

I would prefer to try and keep 60 and give up one of our 2nds next year.  They can have our higher 4th this year to make up for that 

 

28, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd 

I’d prefer that too, but I don’t think next years 2 holds near as much value (despite our 2 being end of round). 

[TheBeaneBandit]

I would actually totally do that trade. We'd still have two seconds next year one which could be very high and we get an almost guaranteed alpha receiver.

[Logic]

Just now, TOboy said:

I’d prefer that too, but I don’t think next years 2 holds near as much value (despite our 2 being end of round). 

Agreed.

The general rule of thumb is that next year's picks lose one round of value.

So a 2025 2nd is the same value as a 2024 3rd.

[oldmanfan]

18 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

Team better be right if they make a move like this as there is a number of holes to fill. Not sure if that would be something I would personally do. I would rather take slow approach even if we end up being slightly worse off this year. 

Where are these holes?  I’ll go position by position:

 

QB:  Josh.  Duh

RB:  Cook and Williams.  Pick up a road grader late in the draft

OL:  all set there, only lost Morse and picked up Collins for depth

DL:  all set at DT, might look at DE in the draft but have 3 guys there already

LB:  no holes there

CB:  have your starters, probably add a guy late

S:  have your starters in Rapp and Edward’s, backup with Lewis, probably draft another.

 

So spend some capital to get a WR.

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

I understand your point of view.

Personally, I think we've seen what it's like to have a bunch of good to above average players and not enough GREAT players on the roster. It gets us to the Divisional round, and then we lose to a team with more GREAT players.

Me? I want more GREAT players around Josh Allen, and Nabers has the potential for greatness.

Give me one elite, blue chip playmaker with the potential for GREATNESS over a handful of potentially GOOD players, all day long and twice on Sundays.

 

It's an interesting point.

 

One of the things I found interesting about the Speak! segment talking about Diggs, was someone - Emmanuel Acho?  talking about the importance of "freakazoids".  He said almost every team in the NFL has about 3, the 49rs have 6, and you can practice hard and prepare well and play hard but if you don't have enough "freakazoids" you know you're going to lose because you don't have enough talent.  

So who are the Bills' "freakazoids"?

 

Obviously, Josh Allen is one.  Diggs was one - Houston is treating him like one - Cosell thinks he's not or no longer one.  Does Cook have "freakazoid" potential?  Does Kinkaid?  

On Defense, who?  Ed Oliver?  Matt Milano?  Tre White at his best was a "freakazoid", as was "all-pro Po"

 

Obviously, the highest probability of landing a "freakazoid" is at the top of the 1st round, but all top of the 1st round picks don't become "freakazoids", and "freakazoids" can be found in every round.  

I think to get "over the hump" we truly need at least one more "freakazoid" on each side of the ball.

 

[Logic]

Seeing so many people drop in to say they're on board with trading up for a WR in this draft does my heart good.

[Nephilim17]

Just now, Logic said:

I feel like it heavily depends on which trade chart you use. The Jimmy Johnson chart or the Rich Hill chart.

Either way, they're both just guides, and we see NFL GMs buck their wisdom every year.

But even if the Bills needed to throw in an extra later round pick, or didn't get the 182 back in the trade, I'd STILL make this move.

I'm not saying I wouldn't do it — if they love Nabers (or Odunze) I'd do it. I just thought getting up to 7th overall would still need a higher pick, like 2025 2nd as well. 

If they think Nabers is generational, do it. If he's just a slightly step above Thomas or Mitchell at the moment, I wouldn't. I'm not a college fan and have just seen highlights.

[BillsFan130]

20 minutes ago, Logic said:

I understand your point of view.

Personally, I think we've seen what it's like to have a bunch of good to above average players and not enough GREAT players on the roster. It gets us to the Divisional round, and then we lose to a team with more GREAT players.

Me? I want more GREAT players around Josh Allen, and Nabers has the potential for greatness.

Give me one elite, blue chip playmaker with the potential for GREATNESS over a handful of potentially GOOD players, all day long and twice on Sundays.

Well said.

 

This is exactly the point I was trying to make when I made a thread a month back on "do the bills have enough elite talent".

 

On the offensive side it's pretty objective that Josh currently has 0 elite players to play with.

[buffaloboyinATL]

3 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Not to pour water on this campfire, but Nabers was "live" on his social media yesterday after his visit with the Chargers  in LA talking to a realtor and viewing the ocean from a spectacular patio 

That was just so that he could be near his QB, Josh Allen's house in the off season.  They can work out together in Dana Point.  

[Big Turk]

It's never happening...a move into the teens for Brian Thomas Jr I could see...a move to 7?  That's nonsense.

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, BillsFan130 said:

Well said.

 

This is exactly the point I was trying to make when I made a thread a month back on "do the bills have enough elite talent".

 

On the offensive side it's pretty objective that Josh currently has 0 elite players to play with.

 

Indeed. Niners have 3, maybe 4.    KC has Kelce + Reid basically counts for an additional 2 

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Logic said:

For those who don't want to pay the totally-worth-it $1.99 per month to subscribe to the Athletic (can you even get a pack of gum for that any more?), here's Joe Buscaglia's latest 7 round Bills mock draft. I gotta say, if this happened, I might cry tears of joy.

https://theathletic.com/5391796/2024/04/05/buffalo-bills-mock-draft-stefon-diggs-trade/

 

TRADE!

Tennessee Titans trade Nos. 7, 182 to Bills for Nos. 28, 60, 133 and 2025 1st

The pick at No. 7: Bills – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

I continue to believe that anything, including a move like this one on draft day, is a real possibility for the Bills. Beane has long been an aggressive draft-day trader when he’s excited about a prospect and how he’d fit their system. Now, with a gaping hole for a top target at wide receiver and where the Bills are in their build, this is the type of move Beane could rationalize as one that puts them over the top for the foreseeable future.

The cost of doing business might be high for some, which is understandable. I’m sure it will evoke memories of the Bills’ move up the board to take Sammy Watkins in 2014. But this is an entirely different situation from 2014 — almost comically so. Back then, it was the desperate move of a franchise hoping Watkins would help EJ Manuel become the franchise quarterback while blatantly ignoring several warning signs he was not that player. Now, there’s nothing for their quarterback to prove. The Bills have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen, a still-talented roster around him, and a pretty good idea that they’ll be pushing for the playoffs at the very least in 2024.

By arming him with a young receiver with elite potential on a rookie deal for the next four years, it gives the Bills a lot of flexibility for how they spend through the duration of the receiver’s rookie deal. I’d liken this move more to the one the Atlanta Falcons made in 2011 to fly up the board and select Julio Jones, already with a top quarterback in Matt Ryan in place. They certainly didn’t regret that trade for a second.

 

The recent trade of Diggs, and acquiring the Vikings’ 2025 2nd from the Texans, could empower Beane to make a stark move up the board like this one, too. With an extremely unsettled quarterback room — either starting journeyman backup Sam Darnold or a rookie — that pick has a good chance of turning into an early second-round selection. If that does happen, the Bills could easily get themselves back at the end of the first round next year, or just view their early second-round pick as their first-round pick replacement for dealing it away to get a potential game-changing receiver. For the right player, Beane will move a first-round pick.

 

Is Nabers worth this type of move? In a more standard draft year, Nabers would easily be the best receiver prospect by a wide margin and likely one of the first players selected. He is outrageously talented and smooth, with the explosiveness to win however the Bills ask him to. The separation is effortless whether he’s at X, Z or slot and he gets the defender to bite at his breakdown constantly. He can win with physicality or speed and will eat cushion from off-defenders alive. Nabers has excellent, crisp footwork, and his contested catch concentration is simply outstanding. On top of it all, he can be a monster with yards after the catch, either using physicality to drag defenders or his 4.35 speed to blow up a play.

Nabers has all the potential to be a star in the NFL, and with one of the league’s best quarterbacks in Allen, it increases that likelihood by a large margin. Nabers is worth the hype. But would he make everyone forget about the price tag? It certainly looks like he has all the potential to do so. And with the Bills looking like they’ll have cap space to work with in 2025, it could be the catalyst to another push toward the top of the AFC.


Rest of draft:

 

 

I like Nabers, Bishop and Davis. Don't like much else (though haven't watched Sundell). And did Joe genuinely draft a LS? 😂

[Warriorspikes51]

With the Chargers badly needing a receiver, we may have to move all the way to #4 if we want our guy.  Whether that's Nabers or MHJ

28, 60, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd    - Guessing it would take this. 
 

Thoughts?

 

Edited April 5 by Warriorspikes51

[JMM]

I don't think that would be enough to get to 7. Would likely take one of next years 2nds as well. 

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I like Nabers, Bishop and Davis. Don't like much else (though haven't watched Sundell). And did Joe genuinely draft a LS? 😂

His reasoning was that the pick in the 7th is very late, so rather than use it on a guy who may not make the roster or may get poached off the practice squad, why not use it to replace 30 year old Reid Ferguson and save that (small) amount of salary cap space. He also claims this fellow is the best long snapper in college football.

I suppose it's the same rationale as drafting a punter. Maybe you'd rather at least take a player who will make your roster than a player at a more traditional position who likely gets cut or poached.

That said...do long snappers EVER get drafted? Aren't they almost always UDFAs?
 

Edited April 5 by Logic

[damj]

Steep price to pay and we have other holes to fill, but I don't hate the idea.

 

I would like it better if we gave them #2 next year instead of this year. Give them the pick we got from Houston which might be in the low 40s.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Logic said:

His reasoning was that the pick in the 7th is very late, so rather than use it on a guy who may not make the roster or may get poached off the practice squad, why not use it to replace 30 year old Reid Ferguson and save that (small) amount of salary cap space. He also claims this fellow is the best long snapper in college football.

I suppose it's the same rationale as drafting a punter. Maybe you'd rather at least take a player who will make your roster than a player at a more traditional position who likely gets cut or poached.

 

 

#FireBeane

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, Logic said:

His reasoning was that the pick in the 7th is very late, so rather than use it on a guy who may not make the roster or may get poached off the practice squad, why not use it to replace 30 year old Reid Ferguson and save that (small) amount of salary cap space. He also claims this fellow is the best long snapper in college football.

I suppose it's the same rationale as drafting a punter. Maybe you'd rather at least take a player who will make your roster than a player at a more traditional position who likely gets cut or poached.

 

 

I think Joe was so impressed with himself he threw his hands up and was like YES let's finish it off with a Long Snapper for kicks 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I'm on board with this. Nabers would awesome to add. So would Harrison, Odunze or Thomas

[damj]

12 minutes ago, TOboy said:

I’d prefer that too, but I don’t think next years 2 holds near as much value (despite our 2 being end of round). 

Not our pick, but the one we got from Houston which might be in the low 40s