Jeremiah has us taking a DT at 28 in his latest mock

[Gigs]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

It's not the preferred choice by me or most fans. But it's not an "AWFUL" idea. 

 

Right now we have Ed Oliver and Daquan Jones at DT and that's literally it. And we use a heavy rotation there.

 

DT will probably be one of our first 2 picks. And there's an argument to be made with how deep WR is and how thin top prospect D-Line talent is that it makes more sense to take the DT first and trade up in Round 2 for a WR.

 

I'd rather we didn't do that. But to say there isn't merit in the idea or that it's "AWFUL" isn't true.

Fans have no idea how deep the WR class is

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

DT is a great idea. I don’t understand why fans hate DL so much.

You got Oliver and Daquon for the next 2 years at DT though.

 

i get the bills rotate a lot, but a first round pick on a rotational Dt who wouldn't even start is not appealing in my personal opinion lol

[Fan in Chicago]

23 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

Worst mistake is passing up talent to reach for a position.  

That cannot be labelled "worst mistake" in a vacuum. Generally on stacked rosters or in a weak draft class, this is true. 

But, this is a rare year where our weakness is matched with a good draft class for that position. Besides that, our main rival also needs WRs and will undoubtedly pick the best available at their #32 spot. 

So, if the BPA is a DT and the next best WR is let's say ranked #29-#31 on the Bills' board, you take the WR to strengthen your own team to help outscore the Chiefs and also to keep that guy away from that rival.

Doing anything but a WR would be a great example of being a slave to the BPA strategy without thinking of these other angles. I don't think Beane will get too cute. He will draft a WR at #28 or move up a bit 

Edited March 19 by Fan in Chicago

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, Gigs said:

Fans have no idea how deep the WR class is

The excellent depth at WR in this draft has been oft mentioned on these boards. What strategy one should adopt in light of that perception is where disputes arise. And that depth is not homogeneous, so the players with particular traits one might favor could still be a relatively rare bird.

[gonzo1105]

Just now, Gigs said:

Fans have no idea how deep the WR class is

This is why most fans can’t be taken seriously because they get on one track minds have their favorites are told by media when a guy is going to go then act crazy when we don’t take their guy only to watch him drop another full round. 
 

Just like this thread it makes a lot of sense to take Newton if he falls to the Bills but 90% of people want a WR but not only a WR but one that fits a very specific criteria at 28. If they take a guy like McConkey or Roman Wilson this place will still go apeshit. 
 

It has to be Brian Thomas or Mitchell or Legette. Thomas will be gone and Legette isn’t going in round 1. So basically that leaves Mitchell one player they lost fans will be happy with. 
 

There was a small percentage of people hyping up Dalton Kincaid last year and it was met with this same resistance about WR. I’m sure the vast majority of that 90% is thrilled we have Kincaid now but some will still B word because it could have been Sam LaPorta 

[Big Blitz]

Feels like drafting D line stalled after the Oliver - AJ - Rousseau - Basham run. 
 

 

I’m still trying to figure out how we can get Washington’s 2 seconds.  

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

That cannot be labelled "worst mistake" in a vacuum. Generally on stacked rosters or in a weak draft class, this is true. 

But, this is a rare year where our weakness is matched with a good draft class for that position. Besides that, our main rival also needs WRs and will undoubtedly pick the best available at their #32 spot. 

So, if the BPA is a DT and the next best WR is let's say ranked #29-#31 on the Bills' board, you take the WR to strengthen your own team to help outscore the Chiefs and also to keep that guy away from that rival.

Doing anything but a WR would be a great example of being a slave to the BPA strategy without thinking of these other angles. I don't think Beane will get too cute. He will draft a WR at #28 or move up a bit 

 

I don't disagree with what you are saying about it not being a vacuum, I do however definitely disagree that WR is our weakest position.  Don't get me wrong, I 100% want WR first, even a trade up, we need a succession plan to Diggs and this draft has too much talent.  

 

But, we are definitely weaker at other positions right now.  Diggs, Samuel, and Shakir is a pretty strong trio of WR's while we are missing starters all over our defense.  

 

Also, I think you are looking it at it wrong on how you evaluate closely graded players from different positions, and this has even been directly stated by Beane multiple times.  When the draft is deep at one of those positions but has a steep drop off at the other, then the one with the drop off he will often give more value too there because he can still find a quality player later at the other position.  So with how deep WR is, according to Beane, if another position is closely graded to the WR he would take but doesn't have a lot to be desired later at that position, he will probably go that other position and take a WR after.  

 

Again, I am on your side...I too want a WR and I am hoping we go get Thomas or Odunze if he somehow slips to 20...or if not maybe trade back a short bit from 28 to add another 3rd and then take one of Coleman, Leggette, Franklin, McConkey, or Pearsall near the top of the 2nd.  

 

I still think WR is most likely our first pick, and hope so too.  Just saying, it wont surprise me if we either wait until the 2nd or make a trade back first and then go WR either.  

 

 

Edited March 19 by Alphadawg7

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, Big Blitz said:

Feels like drafting D line stalled after the Oliver - AJ - Rousseau - Basham run. 
 

 

I’m still trying to figure out how we can get Washington’s 2 seconds.  

Houston has 2 seconds as well.  🤐 I know how we can get either team’s but there’s another thread on it

[Big Blitz]

57 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

If that were in their plans, they wouldn't have signed Mike Williams today to an up to 15m contract to go along with Garrett Wilson. 

Williams is a 1 year deal off an ACL.  
 

They don’t have a need on D.  They can draft IOL later.  
 

They’re going WR.  

 

 

More young elite WR talent also attracts QBs looking to move. 

Edited March 19 by Big Blitz

[Buffalo_Stampede]

13 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

You got Oliver and Daquon for the next 2 years at DT though.

 

i get the bills rotate a lot, but a first round pick on a rotational Dt who wouldn't even start is not appealing in my personal opinion lol

I look at DT 3 as a starter for the Bills.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

This is why most fans can’t be taken seriously because they get on one track minds have their favorites are told by media when a guy is going to go then act crazy when we don’t take their guy only to watch him drop another full round. 
 

Just like this thread it makes a lot of sense to take Newton if he falls to the Bills but 90% of people want a WR but not only a WR but one that fits a very specific criteria at 28. If they take a guy like McConkey or Roman Wilson this place will still go apeshit. 
 

It has to be Brian Thomas or Mitchell or Legette. Thomas will be gone and Legette isn’t going in round 1. So basically that leaves Mitchell one player they lost fans will be happy with. 
 

There was a small percentage of people hyping up Dalton Kincaid last year and it was met with this same resistance about WR. I’m sure the vast majority of that 90% is thrilled we have Kincaid now but some will still B word because it could have been Sam LaPorta 

I dunno, I thought part of what makes the off-season fun is figuring out who you like and why, and rooting for that to happen. You can go back and check. @NewEra and I were among the few who argued for Kincaid well before the draft. That was partly looking at the weak WR draft and sensing Kincaid could be the best playmaker on the board.

 

I personally want a big X with speed. Thomas, Mitchell, and Legette are the fellas that make the most sense to me. Alternatively, I'm one of those who loves McConkey, so I won't be sad if he's the choice. Legette apparently is likely to go in the second, but I'd be surprised if he makes it to #60. Regardless, you can have derision for ordinary folks, I guess. If the Bills take someone I don't like, I'm going to be unhappy about it, then hope he turns out well for my team.

[CoudyBills]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

DT is a great idea. I don’t understand why fans hate DL so much.

DT doesn't win games.

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

/wrist

 

Good Lord, this would be an AWFUL idea

 

Last one I did I had DT as our first pick as well. I did trade back and pick up a third. Ended up with T'Vondre Sweat and Leggette. That would be a good start IMO.

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

The WR investment is more about replacing Diggs. Future investment. 

 

Can you explain what you mean by "more about"?  More about future investment than a DT would be?

 

That wouldn't track.

 

You are much more likely to get big rookie production from a WR than a DT.

 

The top 6 rookie producing WR combined last year averaged 1,040 yards.   Nacua skews that data up but you still had a bunch of guys averaging over 50 yards receiving per game and making huge impacts for playoff teams........not just also-rans padding stats.

 

The Bills still need a WR2 now and going forward.  

 

[gonzo1105]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

I dunno, I thought part of what makes the off-season fun is figuring out who you like and why, and rooting for that to happen. You can go back and check. @NewEra and I were among the few who argued for Kincaid well before the draft. That was partly looking at the weak WR draft and sensing Kincaid could be the best playmaker on the board.

 

I personally want a big X with speed. Thomas, Mitchell, and Legette are the fellas that make the most sense to me. Alternatively, I'm one of those who loves McConkey, so I won't be sad if he's the choice. Legette apparently is likely to go in the second, but I'd be surprised if he makes it to #60. Regardless, you can have derision for ordinary folks, I guess. If the Bills take someone I don't like, I'm going to be unhappy about it, then hope he turns out well for my team.

You don’t find it slightly dumb to go into a draft with only liking 3 guys for a late first round pick 2 of which have an incredibly low percentage of happening. 
 

I just think the common fan is a fool for not looking at the totality of the roster and understanding that yea DT is a possibility and a huge need and is a very possible pick at 28. Newton is a good player and Jeremiah is one of the best in the business 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Can you explain what you mean by "more about"?  More about future investment than a DT would be?

 

That wouldn't track.

 

You are much more likely to get big rookie production from a WR than a DT.

 

The top 6 rookie producing WR combined last year averaged 1,040 yards.   Nacua skews that data up but you still had a bunch of guys averaging over 50 yards receiving per game and making huge impacts for playoff teams........not just also-rans padding stats.

 

The Bills still need a WR2 now and going forward.  

 

I think a rookie WR on the Bills tops out around 50-60 targets next year. I don’t see a path to more unless they really hit on the player. It’s a pretty crowded target share with another receiver added.

 

The Bills need an X on paper, but I’m not sure if that X role will continue to be the same since we have a new OC. Our 1st, 2nd, and likely 3rd in targets are already on the roster in Diggs, Kincaid, and Samuel. You’d likely see the rookie slot in close to Samuel but possibly sharing targets with Shakir.

 

[Dr. Who]

Just now, gonzo1105 said:

You don’t find it slightly dumb to go into a draft with only liking 3 guys for a late first round pick 2 of which have an incredibly low percentage of happening. 
 

I just think the common fan is a fool for not looking at the totality of the roster and understanding that yea DT is a possibility and a huge need and is a very possible pick at 28. Newton is a good player and Jeremiah is one of the best in the business 

First, I don't think it's a low percentage that Thomas, Mitchell, and Legette will all be gone. Most people think you'd have to trade up for Thomas, might have to make a small trade up for Mitchell, and could probably trade back into the early second and still get Legette. So I don't think it is a static strategy lacking complexity and nuance. And in general, those arguing for WR early are making larger arguments than just a particular player, and most are open to other possibilities.

 

I think you've created a bit of a straw man. And almost everyone recognizes DT is a need. I personally think there are decent DTs that can be had Day 2 and some even Day 3, but they won't be Newton. Newton will split time with Ed, right? But maybe a big X replaces Davis outright, and is a particular kind of WR we still lack. And maybe you could peruse @HappyDays and @Kirby Jackson and @BADOLBILZ and @BillsFanForever19 and @Beck Water and, I dunno, quite a few more on this board that don't strike me the least bit dumb, who appear to think WR in the first round is the best choice for this draft.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

11 minutes ago, CoudyBills said:

DT doesn't win games.

I would only put QB in that category.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I would only put QB in that category.

Strange, but QB often ends up throwing to WR.

[gonzo1105]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

First, I don't think it's a low percentage that Thomas, Mitchell, and Legette will all be gone. Most people think you'd have to trade up for Thomas, might have to make a small trade up for Mitchell, and could probably trade back into the early second and still get Legette. So I don't think it is a static strategy lacking complexity and nuance. And in general, those arguing for WR early are making larger arguments than just a particular player, and most are open to other possibilities.

 

I think you've created a bit of a straw man. And almost everyone recognizes DT is a need. I personally think there are decent DTs that can be had Day 2 and some even Day 3, but they won't be Newton. Newton will split time with Ed, right? But maybe a big X replaces Davis outright, and is a particular kind of WR we still lack. And maybe you could peruse @HappyDays and @Kirby Jackson and @BADOLBILZ and @BillsFanForever19 and @Beck Water and, I dunno, quite a few more on this board that don't strike me the least bit dumb, who appear to think WR in the first round is the best choice for this draft.

There is nothing more straw man than I like 3 players. It’s not about WR it’s about if they go WR and it’s not a specific player they will still be upset. I posed this question weeks ago and said if they take McConkey and while you said you’d be okay there were many others who said they wouldn’t be accepting of that. 
 

If the Bills take WR I get it, if they take Chop Robinson I get it, if they take Jerzahn Newton or Cooper DeJean I get it.  Even if they took Jackson Powers Johnson it makes sense. 
 

If they take Brock Bowers or a Tackle or a Nickle Corner I might be more upset. 
 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

10 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Strange, but QB often ends up throwing to WR.

So much goes into it but the QB makes it all work.

 

I’m not sure what you’re arguing. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I think a rookie WR on the Bills tops out around 50-60 targets next year. I don’t see a path to more unless they really hit on the player. It’s a pretty crowded target share with another receiver added.

 

The Bills need an X on paper, but I’m not sure if that X role will continue to be the same since we have a new OC. Our 1st, 2nd, and likely 3rd in targets are already on the roster in Diggs, Kincaid, and Samuel. You’d likely see the rookie slot in close to Samuel but possibly sharing targets with Shakir.

 

 

 

But WR is more about the future than what?

 

The targets and path talk is the same at any position.    What late first round DL from the draft figures to garner the same or more snap share as the Bills returning 5 of Rousseau/Jones/Oliver/Epenesa/Miller?  

 

A first round guard or a safety would have an obvious path to a starting job right away if that's the criteria but otherwise any rookie figures to have to share snaps/targets for this team "unless they really hit on the players". 

 

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

But WR is more about the future than what?

 

The targets and path talk is the same at any position.    What late first round DL from the draft figures to garner the same or more snap share as the Bills returning 5 of Rousseau/Jones/Oliver/Epenesa/Miller?  

 

A first round guard or a safety would have an obvious path to a starting job right away if that's the criteria but otherwise any rookie figures to have to share snaps/targets for this team "unless they really hit on the players". 

 

Sounds to me there should be more of a Cooper DeJean crowd around here with this line of thinking. What percentage of this board do you think would be okay with DeJean even though he’d be a 100% starter at Safety day 1? 

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

There is nothing more straw man than I like 3 players. It’s not about WR it’s about if they go WR and it’s not a specific player they will still be upset. I posed this question weeks ago and said if they take McConkey and while you said you’d be okay there were many others who said they wouldn’t be accepting of that. 
 

If the Bills take WR I get it, if they take Chop Robinson I get it, if they take Jerzahn Newton or Cooper DeJean I get it.  Even if they took Jackson Powers Johnson it makes sense. 
 

If they take Brock Bowers or a Tackle or a Nickle Corner I might be more upset. 
 

 

Okay, you might be arguing with human nature, but I understand your view.

 

There are holes on the team, so there are multiple positions that make sense from that perspective. The argument for WR is not just about a hole at WR2, but a desire to see a shift in team-building strategy towards prioritizing offense with Josh Allen, a generational QB who too often is asked to elevate mediocre talent. It's also considers that hitting on a potential WR1 going forward gets a premium position on a rookie contract, allowing one to use that "savings" elsewhere in constructing a roster. Cooper Dejean is an exciting player, but he's a S in the NFL, and you ought to have noticed it is a position that is not as expensive to fill as WR.

 

Center in the first is not the smartest play for similar reasons, and also because you can find good Centers later in the draft. In this draft alone, Van Pran and Frazier on day 2, and probably Bortolini and Limmer on day 3.

[Beck Water]

20 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Strange, but QB often ends up throwing to WR.

 

It has happened that a QB caught his own pass, but it's very very rare - and usually doesn't go for much gain.

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

So much goes into it but the QB makes it all work.

 

I’m not sure what you’re arguing. 

If you get Josh Allen better WR talent, he'll win more games. 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

If we select a DT in the 1st round we get what we have coming to us.

[Turbo44]

I’d be okay with a DeJean or DL in rd 1 if we get a Legette type in rd 2. After the top 4 wr’s , all likely gone before we pick (barring a high cost to move in the teens) the 10th wr is probably just as likely to success as the 5th. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

But WR is more about the future than what?

 

The targets and path talk is the same at any position.    What late first round DL from the draft figures to garner the same or more snap share as the Bills returning 5 of Rousseau/Jones/Oliver/Epenesa/Miller?  

 

A first round guard or a safety would have an obvious path to a starting job right away if that's the criteria but otherwise any rookie figures to have to share snaps/targets for this team "unless they really hit on the players". 

 

I thought the person I replied to was implying that we need a WR next year to get the offense back to where it was a few years ago. I don’t think a WR at 28 will impact the season next year as much as some think. It might be year 2 when we see the biggest impact.

 

Now if we trade up it’s a different story.

[Billl]

I’d run to the podium if he’s still on the board when Kansas City picks.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

If you get Josh Allen better WR talent, he'll win more games. 

Thats a big myth simply because the offense isn’t why we lose games when it matters. 

[BillsFan2313]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

If you get Josh Allen better WR talent, he'll win more games. 

 

Dude forgot all the drops in the KC game and remembers how many sacks our heavily invested DL had in that game.....

[BADOLBILZ]

27 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

There is nothing more straw man than I like 3 players. It’s not about WR it’s about if they go WR and it’s not a specific player they will still be upset. I posed this question weeks ago and said if they take McConkey and while you said you’d be okay there were many others who said they wouldn’t be accepting of that. 
 

If the Bills take WR I get it, if they take Chop Robinson I get it, if they take Jerzahn Newton or Cooper DeJean I get it.  Even if they took Jackson Powers Johnson it makes sense. 
 

If they take Brock Bowers or a Tackle or a Nickle Corner I might be more upset. 
 

 

 

 

You don't appear to have any real philosophy or game plan wrt to drafting on day 1.   Is it just immediate need-based and no regard for the value of the position or, say,  how it impacts by far the most important player on the team?   

 

 

For instance, why would you be upset with a tackle?   Spencer Brown is a free agent next winter.   Suppose he plays well........do you really want to pay him $20M aav?   If there is a future star LT that you could put at RT for a couple seasons and then switch him to left if and when Dawkins flames out or needs to kick inside then why would you be upset?   I'm not saying that would be ideal because I think the WR position is both a need and a place that is likely to provide BPA and also best player as a rookie at #28.    But the draft is a process, not just an annual event to patch perceived immediate needs in the lineup.

Edited March 19 by BADOLBILZ

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

Dude forgot all the drops in the KC game and remembers how many sacks our heavily invested DL had in that game.....

We’re talking about the draft. Value matters.

 

After the top 4 WRs for me I see a lot of equally graded WRs. 

Edited March 19 by Buffalo_Stampede

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

If we take a DT at 28 that is the direct result of McD pulling his weight.

 

So you McD lovers who are petrified of going back to the drought in case McD is fired, you reap what you sow !!!

 

Hopefully Josh gets sick of the Sh*t at some point !

[BADOLBILZ]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I thought the person I replied to was implying that we need a WR next year to get the offense back to where it was a few years ago. I don’t think a WR at 28 will impact the season next year as much as some think. It might be year 2 when we see the biggest impact.

 

Now if we trade up it’s a different story.

 

 

Again...........what position do you think promises more immediate help that also promises *comparable* long term value than WR?

 

It's easy to come up with a reason to not draft any position.   What's difficult is to compare and separate the options.

 

I understand that we have people who are borderline frantic about patching every hole on paper...........not saying that's you but anyone who thinks that drafting a center or safety in round 1, for instance,  is a good use of such a limited resource(1st round pick) is obviously coming from an immediately needy perspective.    

Edited March 19 by BADOLBILZ

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You don't appear to have any real philosophy or game plan wrt to drafting on day 1.   Is it just immediate need-based and no regard for the value of the position or, say,  how it impacts by far the most important player on the team?   

 

 

For instance, why would you be upset with a tackle?   Spencer Brown is a free agent next winter.   Suppose he plays well........do you really want to pay him $20M aav?   If there is a future star LT that you could put at RT for a couple seasons and then switch him to left if and when Dawkins flames out or needs to kick inside then why would you be upset?   I'm not saying that would be ideal because I think the WR position is both a need and a place that is likely to provide BPA and also best player as a rookie at #28.    But the draft is a process, not just an annual event to patch perceived immediate needs in the lineup.

How is drafting a big X not a full an immediate need position. Again, I asked why McConkey would be a bad pick and the vast majority called him a slot when he’s an ideal replacement for Diggs in the future. 
 

Taking a DT isn’t just filling ms immediate need. We have 2 guys in the roster one of which tore his pec and is 33 years old and is likely here for 1 year before he’s cut. Take Chop Robinson is not an immediate need as we now have 5 DEs with game experience. 
 

Yea DeJean is one of those guys and he’s maybe by a round better than any other Safety on the board. 
 

You’re right there sounds like nothing more gameplan than I like 3 players and if I don’t get them then idk what to do. Do you think Brandon Beane is sitting there with his big board and telling everyone yup we’re only looking at WR here at 28. 
 

I don’t want a tackle because I think we have an in-house option in RVD who played really well last year when called upon. 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

26 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Sounds to me there should be more of a Cooper DeJean crowd around here with this line of thinking. What percentage of this board do you think would be okay with DeJean even though he’d be a 100% starter at Safety day 1? 

 

 

There are always people who want to throw a first round pick at any perceived position of need.    Even if it's devalued.   There is a very vocal minority that often suggests RB in round 1 every year so any position outside of ST only will please some people if it's a perceived immediate need.

[Dunkirk Donski]

2 hours ago, Malazan said:

I like how people in here act like the Bills already did this..

 

Also, Daniel Jeremiah definitely 'has the pulse' of the Bills..

 

2023: Quentin Johnston (WR)

2022: Breece Hall (RB)

2021: Asante Samuel Jr. (CB)

2020: --

2019: T.J. Hockensen (TE)

2018: Josh Rosen (QB)

 

So based on his results.. the Bills are absolutely taking a WR then.. Mock drafts are not meant to be 'accurate' or based on 'inside information'. They're meant to generate traffic by getting people to run to reddit, facebook, message boards, etc screaming about this stuff.

He picked the same josh I did.  Definitely a dumbass 

[NoSaint]

21 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

I’d be okay with a DeJean or DL in rd 1 if we get a Legette type in rd 2. After the top 4 wr’s , all likely gone before we pick (barring a high cost to move in the teens) the 10th wr is probably just as likely to success as the 5th. 

Dejean if he’s great - half the paycheck of a wr still. 
 

you have to hit on DE or WR in the draft to reset the window to being akin to having a rookie contract qb.