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Josh Allen Home Reg Season After Nov


Back2Buff

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2 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

Josh Allen at home in the regular season after Nov is gross.  A couple anomalies, but the guy is not a good cold weather QB.  I took out the game in 2019 vs Jets when he was pulled, but he averages 55% with 2 TD and 1 INT.  He is always wildly inaccurate when the weather gets cold.

 

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Your point is well taken, but Josh's best statistical games listed here are against the Dolphins.

 

Also, the Bills won most of these games

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Allen is fine in cold weather.   He is not particularly good in sloppy weather (wind, rain, and/or snow).   Obvious sloppy field games where he was outplayed by the opposing QB is, of course, by Burrows in last year's playoff game and by Matt Ryan in Allen's three interception game against the Falcons a few years back (although Allen did win the game with his legs once he stopped throwing it so much.)  There was also the Eagles game against Carson Wentz in 2019 but maybe you don't want to count that since Allen hadn't hit his stride yet.  I am sure there are others but those are the ones that are just off the top of my head.  You can also argue he was outplayed by Bill Belichick's strategy in the famous Mac Jones two pass game,


To me, the issue is that Allen doesn't like to adjust for his passing game for weather except to throw the ball harder which just leads to more drops and less accuracy.

 

 

Edited by Billy Claude
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2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Rain and wind in that stadium is so much worse than cold and snow. It really a miserable weather stadium. I hate it.


Totally agree with that.

On the day that the Argos were playing in the 1982 Grey Cup, I had preordered a meaningless game v.s. the Baltimore Colts. It was that terrible cold,persistent rain inthe upper regions of Rich. A completely miserable day, which I tried to avoid ever again! 
 

It is zero fun to play in that shite!
 

The Bills won 20-0.

The Argos lost the Grey Cup.

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1 hour ago, Drew21PA said:

Have to laugh with these narratives 

 

thank you for using logic

 

why are people picking apart Allen right now?

 

are we serious?

F you read some of my posts you’ll see I’ve been disappointed in him at times this year.  IMO he could have better prepared and has a little too much Hollywood going right now, but the premise of this particular thread is a joke.

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17 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

Allen is fine in cold weather.   He is not particularly good in sloppy weather (wind, rain, and/or snow).   Obvious sloppy field games where he was outplayed by the opposing QB is, of course, by Burrows in last year's playoff game and by Matt Ryan in Allen's three interception game against the Falcons a few years back (although Allen did win the game with his legs once he stopped throwing it so much.)  There was also the Eagles game against Carson Wentz in 2019 but maybe you don't want to count that since Allen hadn't hit his stride yet.  I am sure there are others but those are the ones that are just off the top of my head.  You can also argue he was outplayed by Bill Belichick's strategy in the famous Mac Jones two pass game,


To me, the issue is that Allen doesn't like to adjust for his passing game for weather except to throw the ball harder which just leads to more drops and less accuracy.

 

 

 

This is a good point.  He always seems like he is throwing a missile when the weather gets colder, and he has way less control.  

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3 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

Josh Allen at home in the regular season after Nov is gross.  A couple anomalies, but the guy is not a good cold weather QB.  I took out the game in 2019 vs Jets when he was pulled, but he averages 55% with 2 TD and 1 INT.  He is always wildly inaccurate when the weather gets cold.

 

image.thumb.png.15e43cf3977f7f9b111088b3792a04b6.png

 

Interesting thread!  

 

Here's some more detail.  Looking at his career splits, and without any detail, it seems that his November is the problematic month.  His Decembers are good from a scoring perspective primarily.  

 

His QB Rating is worst in December, but his stats otherwise, again, sans any detail, are second only to October.  

 

Career

Sept:    13-7 (20 games), 468 of 717, 65.3%, 5,156, 36/18 (2-to-1),  92.7, 53 Sacks for 333 yards, 257.8 Y/G  

Oct:      15-7 (22 games), 472 of 726, 65.0%, 5,522, 44/15 (2.9 to 1), 99.5, 30 Sacks for 174 yards, 251.0 Y/G 

Nov:     13-9 (22 games), 466 of 722, 64.5%, 5,401, 33/22 (1.5 to 1), 89.6, 42 Sacks for 263 yards, 245.5 Y/G 

Dec:     17-8 (25 games), 481 of 815, 59.0%, 5,428, 44/16 (2.75 to 1), 88.8, 44 Sacks for 275 yards, 217.1 Y/G 

 

 

 

Edited by PBF81
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3 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Very clever qualifying it with “regular season” to exclude possibly the best game any QB ever played. 
 

Also:

 

Including 2018

Including games like Atlanta/Carolina where the game plans were clearly different due to how bad the opposition was

Using the Dallas game from three weeks ago as a data point implying poor QB play.  Did you watch that one?

 

What is the Bills record in the games you list above?  How about if you exclude 2018?

 

2018

L

W

W

2019

L

L

2020

W

W

2021

L

W

W
2022

W

W

W

2023

W

W

 

W-L 11-4 (if you want to exclude the 2019 Jets game 11-3)

 

Next

 

3 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

Josh Allen at home in the regular season after Nov is gross.  A couple anomalies, but the guy is not a good cold weather QB.  I took out the game in 2019 vs Jets when he was pulled, but he averages 55% with 2 TD and 1 INT.  He is always wildly inaccurate when the weather gets cold.

 

image.thumb.png.15e43cf3977f7f9b111088b3792a04b6.png

 

So you do know it gets cold in Buffalo prior to December, right?  and that cold weather /winds affect other aspects of the game like WR catch rate etc.?

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57 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

F you read some of my posts you’ll see I’ve been disappointed in him at times this year.  IMO he could have better prepared and has a little too much Hollywood going right now, but the premise of this particular thread is a joke.

This is ridiculous - sounds like a lot of jealousy when I read these sort of comments

 

comments about “social life”

”too much golf”

”Hollywood”

”he makes a lot of money”

 

show the hand of the poster

 

you don’t know him - you have no idea what his workout habits are or training or diet or anythjng

 

just speculation lead by idk what?  Jealousy I guess idk

 

 

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4 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

 

Not really, I remember seeing him play at Wyoming and it seemed when it was cold, he was inaccurate.  So I wanted to see how he has done in NFL, and it tells the same story.


Nobody outside the state of Wyoming watched Josh Allen play at Wyoming. 
 

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I've always thought Allen resembled a better QB on the road (by the eye test), but have no stats to back that up.  Except this year.  This is the season I don't think he's played better in road games.  His best game was @ Philly and that was in rainy weather ironically. It will be interesting to see if he has a very solid game in South Florida in good weather against a team he has performed well against.

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4 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

 

Not really, I remember seeing him play at Wyoming and it seemed when it was cold, he was inaccurate.  So I wanted to see how he has done in NFL, and it tells the same story.

 

Such BS lol.

 

The college football season ends in November and bowl games happen after that.  College football isn't played in the harsh weather as much as the NFL regular season extends into the first week of January.

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4 hours ago, ScotSHO said:

 

I'm not the biggest fan of JA17, he is a rollercoaster for sure.  But I want every opposing QB's stats - I think waht you're complaining about is an open air stadium in the snowbelt.

HAHAHAHA Bills fan who doesn't care for Josh Allen ? LOLOLOLOL who would you prefer Trent Edwards? JP Losman? Dan Darragh?

 

Why would you like a QB of your supposed favorite team who is routinely rated as a top 5 NFL QB LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO

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Stats can be arranged in any manner to show whatever one wants them to show, leaving out the win / loss column is an example…, 

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11 minutes ago, Dick_Cheney said:

Don't worry. The Great Lakes aren't freezing anymore, and in a year or two average temps in Buffalo for that time of the year will probably be in the mid-50s. Things are looking up!

 

Time to buy some lake front property and hold it. I’ll be sitting on a gold mine in 15 years!

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5 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

 

Not really, I remember seeing him play at Wyoming and it seemed when it was cold, he was inaccurate.  So I wanted to see how he has done in NFL, and it tells the same story.

 

So ... just curious. Why are you only using Regular Season games?

 

2022 Wild Card vs New England (Freezing Cold):

85% completion, 5 TD's, 0 INT's, 308 yards passing and they ran the game out. Literally called "The Perfect Game" because they had touchdown drives every time with the starting offense.

 

2022 Divisional vs Kansas City (Freezing Cold):

73% completion, 4 TD's, 0 INT's, 329 yards passing. Out-dueled Mahomes, but lost because defense let him down.

 

2023 AFC Wild Card vs Miami (In Buffalo, Freezing Cold):

59% Completion, 3 TD's, 2 INT's, 352 yards passing. Game winning drive 

 

Overall in the playoffs, Josh All has a 99.6 QBR with 2,334 Yards, 17 Touchdowns and 4 Interceptions.

 

Myth busted. 🙄

 

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2 hours ago, Drew21PA said:

This is ridiculous - sounds like a lot of jealousy when I read these sort of comments

 

comments about “social life”

”too much golf”

”Hollywood”

”he makes a lot of money”

 

show the hand of the poster

 

you don’t know him - you have no idea what his workout habits are or training or diet or anythjng

 

just speculation lead by idk what?  Jealousy I guess idk

 

 

He has looked unprepared in several games this year and has made quite a few unnecessary bad decisions in games.  This includes an arm punt on first down just this week.  As you can see I am defending him against the premise of this thread but it doesn’t mean I worship him.  
 

The “hand” that I am showing is called objectivity.  If you insist that the emperor’s clothes are amazing, then fine.  If another poster like the OP in this thread wants to twist statistics to pretend Josh turns into a pumpkin when it gets cold, then fine.

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Josh Allen was terrible vs the Pats.   I have not seen much discussion but the laterals when he is being tackled was not good decision making.  Sure one "worked", still should not have been done IMO.  The second one was desperation at a time we did not need desperation and he ended up fumbling, that could have gone the other way easily.  On top of that he was just off with ball placement and late with throws....we will need a better form of Josh this week.

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8 hours ago, pocoboy said:

Stadium design. Winter weather = wind = a real s**t show for everything relying upon the atmospheric conditions.

 

Clearly a dome over a new park would be best, but I would imagine a modern design firm is going to figure out how to eliminate some of the quirks that are accentuated by the sunken stadium.

It is cold and wintry in New England too.  Brady didn't seem to have much issue with cold temperatures.

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