Game thread: MNF Cincinnati at Jacksonville

[SWATeam]

Pretty bad scenario with Lawrence going down.  We're not likely to catch JAX as they are 3 clear of us because of the head to head.  And the Jags play CLE this week who we need to lose as well.

[Gregg]

Any word on the injury to Trevor. Haven't heard how much time he will miss. It didn't look good.

[BBFL]

34 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:

I strongly disagree with this take. And the disrespect you’re spewing out at Tua and Purdy is uncalled for. But you know what, I’m sure that they don’t care one iota what people think of them. They’ll just keep winning and laughing at the doubters.

But but but… Strength of schedules…

screw the fish but they are a vastly better team with Tua under center. As are the 9ers and Purdy. 

[Einstein]

8 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

They still would have had hope because of who they play.  Now they are in a situation where they can steal the 7 seed.

 

A loss last night would have lowered their playoff odds to 2%.
 

 

Id rather have a motivated team that has hope to go out and beat the opponents we need.

 

They aren’t winning out, which is what they would need to get into the playoffs.

[Heitz]

1 hour ago, Bob Jones said:

They did X-rays last night, so if it was broken, they’d know that now.

 

He is going in for an MRI this morning.

 

My prediction is that he’ll miss at least 2 games, maybe 3, and they still win the division.

 

FWIW, I broke my ankle years ago and while an Xray saw the break on the one side, the MRI saw a break on the other the the xray didn't show.  

 

Now, the next time I broke my OTHER ankle, the bone was sticking out so that one looked (and felt) kinda obvi... 😳

[Dukestreetking]

8 hours ago, Nitro said:

What is with AFC startingQBs getting knocked out of games and possibly the season?   Jags are not going far without Lawrence.   Should have pounded the rock more but hindsight is 20/20

 

Aside: looking up TL injury status... ESPN tells me JA has current, longest start-streak at 83 games (!), well ahead of Herbert at 61.

 

Yet another note to add to The No Ring Blues.

[Bills!Win!]

AFC Qb’s to get injured 

 

Joe Burrow 

Deshaun Watson 

Anthony Richardson 

Trevor Lawrence 

Aaron Rodgers

Kenny Pickett

 

Mahomes, you’re next 

 

[Bob Jones]

29 minutes ago, Heitz said:

 

FWIW, I broke my ankle years ago and while an Xray saw the break on the one side, the MRI saw a break on the other the the xray didn't show.  

 

Now, the next time I broke my OTHER ankle, the bone was sticking out so that one looked (and felt) kinda obvi... 😳

Huh. Seems odd that they wouldn't have shot X-rays from multiple angles, or at least both sides. HMO? LOL

 

When I broke my collar bone, they did shoot X-rays from both the front & back, although it was broken in two places so it was easy to see in any case.

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

But just 1 game out of the playoffs. The next 2 games IMO are huge for the Bills go 1-1 and the playoffs are likely go 0-2 and it’s highly unlikely. 

 

Going 1-1 is more unlikely to get in than it is likely.

[stevestojan]

16 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Going 1-1 is more unlikely to get in than it is likely.

I’d normally agree but this is the weirdest AFC year I can remember. I don’t think the Bills deserve a playoff spot based on losses to NE, Jets, and Broncos, but this isn’t the NCAAF. 
 

Such a shame that this is the year we horribly underperform when every other team besides the Ravens and Dolphins are getting decimated by injuries. 

[Casey D]

44 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Going 1-1 is more unlikely to get in than it is likely.

Actually according to NYT playoff machine, Bills lose to Dallas and win all other games, 57% chance of being in playoffs. Beat Dallas too, and it is over 99%.

[Success]

Before yesterday, I was pretty confident 10-7 would do the trick.  But Cincy's win & the Jags losing Lawrence throws a wrench into things.

 

[Casey D]

4 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Actually according to NYT playoff machine, Bills lose to Dallas and win all other games, 57% chance of being in playoffs. Beat Dallas too, and it is over 99%.

I think keeping Bengals alive might be a good thing.  They have lots of games against other contenders like Pitt and Indy and Cleveland, so they need to be motivated so these teams savage each other.

[Scott7975]

4 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Actually according to NYT playoff machine, Bills lose to Dallas and win all other games, 57% chance of being in playoffs. Beat Dallas too, and it is over 99%.

 

Not sure how odds work.  I play with the playoff machine.  I find that to give a better look than mathematical odds. If we lose a game, our easiest path would be Denver losing.  All the other teams seem to just bounce back and forth ahead of us depending on who you choose to win or not.  There aren't that many good scenarios for the Bills to get in if they lose a game other than some Denver losses.  At least not that I can find.  I'm not going to sit here and say I played every scenario out because it's just too hard to keep track of but I did a bunch and included some unlikely losses to teams and the Bills still didn't get in.

2 minutes ago, Casey D said:

I think keeping Bengals alive might be a good thing.  They have lots of games against other contenders like Pitt and Indy and Cleveland, so they need to be motivated so these teams savage each other.

 

They don't savage each other though.  There are 6 teams either ahead of us or tied with us that hold a tie breaker on us.  When one savages, the others climb.

[BADOLBILZ]

11 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

At this rate the AFC will be devoid of quality qbs come playoff time.

 

 

Browning might actually be quality.

 

I remember watching him early in his college career at Washington and thinking he would probably end up being a high first round pick.

 

Then his really feeble arm took that off of the table.

 

But,  as often happens nowadays🤔............he's developed a much stronger arm in the pro's.........and now all the other things that made him so impressive at Washington are translating.    No reason he can't be a Brock Purdy type with the talent around him in Cincy.

 

 

[Punching Bag]

Replayed today (Tuesday) on NFL  

03:00 PM EST

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars

 

NFL Network is also replaying 49ers slaughter of Eagles so they must figure a lot of fans in NFC want to see it.

08:00 PM EST

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

[ngbills]

1 hour ago, Casey D said:

I think keeping Bengals alive might be a good thing.  They have lots of games against other contenders like Pitt and Indy and Cleveland, so they need to be motivated so these teams savage each other.

Problem is with so many teams ahead of us there are a lot wins going around when those teams play each other. I dont see 10 wins being enough:

 

Jax only needs 2 wins (ends with TB, Car, Ten)

Cle only needs 3 wins (Jax next week and then needs 2 vs Chi/NYJ; Losses to CIN and HOU give them wins)

Hou needs 3 wins (Cle is one and then needs 2 vs NYJ/Ten twice; Loss to Colts give them 1)

Ind needs3 wins (Hou is 1 and then need 2 vs ATL/LVR; Losses to CIN and PIT would give them each 1)

Cin needs 4 wins (Ind is 1, Cle is 2; Need 2 vs MIN/PIT/KC. Loss to PIT gives them 1)

Pit needs 3 wins (CIN is 1, Ind is 2; Need 1 vs NE/SEA/BAL).

Den needs 4 wins vs LAC twice/DET/NE/LVR

 

Bottom line is that a lot has to go right to get in. Even 11 and we could be out. At 11-6 and all likely favorites win the Bills are out. 

[HappyDays]

This is bad for our playoff chances at 10-7 IMO. Unless the Jaguars lose 4 of their 5 remaining games they're ahead of us in that scenario. They have a game against the Browns this weekend and we really need the Browns to get 3 more losses.

[BADOLBILZ]

24 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

This is bad for our playoff chances at 10-7 IMO. Unless the Jaguars lose 4 of their 5 remaining games they're ahead of us in that scenario. They have a game against the Browns this weekend and we really need the Browns to get 3 more losses.

 

 

On the plus side..........it's good for our #1 seed chances. 😕

[transplantbillsfan]

@Scott7975 saying I was aggressive for no reason 

12 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

what it does is keep all the teams even. A few are bound to shine through that. The Bills need to be one of them.  I’m not being a eeyore. I’m being realistic while you are being a homer. 

 

Edited December 5, 2023 by transplantbillsfan

[RiotAct]

22 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

On the plus side..........it's good for our #1 seed chances. 😕

lol

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is bad for our playoff chances at 10-7 IMO. Unless the Jaguars lose 4 of their 5 remaining games they're ahead of us in that scenario. They have a game against the Browns this weekend and we really need the Browns to get 3 more losses.

 

The Jags play both Bucs and Panthers and then finish with the Titans … yep only 1 more win isn’t very likely …

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

dude you being aggressive for no reason. I’m here cheering my team every week. You in like 3 threads. One of them being your own MVP thread every year. 
 

you all excited the bengals won and trying to tell people they wrong for wanting a Jags win. I’m trying to show you how you’re wrong and you getting upset and personal. No reason to get personal. Learn how to argue and communicate. 

 

I have an idea... why don't you go play with the playoff machine.  There are not a lot of scenarios where the Bills make it if they lose even 1 game.  If they win out they are probably in but you are under this strong impression that the Bills can still lose 1 game and be fine.  They aren't.  Todays game made that worse but you can't comprehend that because you think any 10 win team is in.  Thats just not true this year.

 

I had purposely given losses to teams that shouldn't lose with the Bills only losing the Dallas game and the Bills still didn't get in.  Like it really is that bad.  Everytime you make cleveland lose the colts get in.  Make the colts lose cleveland is back in. etc.  Best chance I can find to get them in with losing a game is making Denver lose some.  Jags, Hou, Colts, Browns, Bengals, Pitts are all just in too good of a position right now.  One loses to the other then the other gets in.  So if you want to get the Bills in with a loss it almost has to be Denver that loses.

 

Except the NFL doesn't work this way.  Teams lose all the time that shouldn't.  Take a look at Buffalo all year.  Take a look at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Take a look at the Jags last night.

 

There will be upsets.

 

Just as an example, the Tennessee Titans play the Texans twice, the Dolphins once, and the Jags once along with the Seahawks.

 

I be that as you wrote in your winners, you gave the Titans ZERO wins over the next 5 games.

 

Now, rather than playing that "favorites," do you actually think the Titans are going 0-5 in the next 5 games?

 

If you believe they will, we can throw down a friendly wager... because I highly doubt they don't win at least 1, but probably 2 of those remaining games... and not just based on the "resting starters" notion of the last game. If I had to guess I'd say they split with the Texans.

 

11 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Best chance... like I said way back at the Denver game is to win the division.  The Bills need to win out from here or pray Denver loses.  The Bengals win made that worse because it threw an extra team back in the picture.  Personally, I think you take issue with my post because you been fighting me on this 5-2 stuff since I made that post back at the Denver game.  So far it still looks that way.

 

I didn't take issue with your post all that much.  Just don't call other people homers and expect them not to respond.

[transplantbillsfan]

12 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

you all excited the bengals won and trying to tell people they wrong for wanting a Jags win. I’m trying to show you how you’re wrong and you getting upset and personal. No reason to get personal. Learn how to argue and communicate. 

 

The Bengals won and the Jags starting QB got a fairly serious injury that will almost certainly keep him out at least 1 or 2 games.  It sets up a scenario where the Jags could lose more than they win over the next 5.

 

The Bengals have a really tough schedule to end the year with the Colts, Vikings, Steelers, Chiefs and Browns.

 

Not worried about them winning out with Jake Browning at QB with that schedule.

 

12 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I have an idea... why don't you go play with the playoff machine.  There are not a lot of scenarios where the Bills make it if they lose even 1 game.  If they win out they are probably in but you are under this strong impression that the Bills can still lose 1 game and be fine.  They aren't.  Todays game made that worse but you can't comprehend that because you think any 10 win team is in.  Thats just not true this year.

 

I disagree.  I played with the playoff machine and there are a bunch of scenarios with the Bills making the playoffs with 1 loss.

 

Yes, it relies on other teams to lose.  But those losses are entirely possible.  And there are several possibilities.

 

[ngbills]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

This is bad for our playoff chances at 10-7 IMO. Unless the Jaguars lose 4 of their 5 remaining games they're ahead of us in that scenario. They have a game against the Browns this weekend and we really need the Browns to get 3 more losses.

Will miss enough time to give CLE the win in one of the few they could lose, but back to still get to 11 wins. 

[Bob Jones]

3 hours ago, ngbills said:

Problem is with so many teams ahead of us there are a lot wins going around when those teams play each other. I dont see 10 wins being enough:

 

Jax only needs 2 wins (ends with TB, Car, Ten)

Cle only needs 3 wins (Jax next week and then needs 2 vs Chi/NYJ; Losses to CIN and HOU give them wins)

Hou needs 3 wins (Cle is one and then needs 2 vs NYJ/Ten twice; Loss to Colts give them 1)

Ind needs3 wins (Hou is 1 and then need 2 vs ATL/LVR; Losses to CIN and PIT would give them each 1)

Cin needs 4 wins (Ind is 1, Cle is 2; Need 2 vs MIN/PIT/KC. Loss to PIT gives them 1)

Pit needs 3 wins (CIN is 1, Ind is 2; Need 1 vs NE/SEA/BAL).

Den needs 4 wins vs LAC twice/DET/NE/LVR

 

Bottom line is that a lot has to go right to get in. Even 11 and we could be out. At 11-6 and all likely favorites win the Bills are out. 

Thanks for doing this leg work. Looks like the bottom line is that the Bills need to win out and still get some help from other teams. All these playoff predictor sites are pretty much worthless this far out, because so many teams are in the hunt, and there’s too many variables. I’d even bet that most of the playoff spots in the AFC will be decided on the final Sunday of the season.

 

Would be nice to see the Bills go on a nine game run. 😉

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

@Scott7975 saying I was aggressive for no reason 

 

 

Yeah, I called you a homer because you called me eeyore.

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Except the NFL doesn't work this way.  Teams lose all the time that shouldn't.  Take a look at Buffalo all year.  Take a look at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Take a look at the Jags last night.

 

There will be upsets.

 

Just as an example, the Tennessee Titans play the Texans twice, the Dolphins once, and the Jags once along with the Seahawks.

 

I be that as you wrote in your winners, you gave the Titans ZERO wins over the next 5 games.

 

Now, rather than playing that "favorites," do you actually think the Titans are going 0-5 in the next 5 games?

 

If you believe they will, we can throw down a friendly wager... because I highly doubt they don't win at least 1, but probably 2 of those remaining games... and not just based on the "resting starters" notion of the last game. If I had to guess I'd say they split with the Texans.

 

 

I didn't take issue with your post all that much.  Just don't call other people homers and expect them not to respond.

 

You called me eeyore man. That is literally the only reason I called you a homer.  

 

 

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The Bengals won and the Jags starting QB got a fairly serious injury that will almost certainly keep him out at least 1 or 2 games.  It sets up a scenario where the Jags could lose more than they win over the next 5.

 

The Bengals have a really tough schedule to end the year with the Colts, Vikings, Steelers, Chiefs and Browns.

 

Not worried about them winning out with Jake Browning at QB with that schedule.

 

 

I disagree.  I played with the playoff machine and there are a bunch of scenarios with the Bills making the playoffs with 1 loss.

 

Yes, it relies on other teams to lose.  But those losses are entirely possible.  And there are several possibilities.

 

 

Would love to hear the "bunch" of scenarios.  I found some easy to believe ones with Denver but other than that I was flipping switches all over the place and not getting the Bills in.  Sure, I started with what I think would win but then I went back flipping teams to losses, some of them being not really realistic, and couldn't get the Bills in most of the time.  I found one scenario otherwise which requires Pittsburg losing out, Cinci only winning 1 game, and Browns losing to the Bears.

 

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Scott7975

[Nitro]

On 12/5/2023 at 1:17 AM, Governor said:

It’s just a sprain.

High ankle sprains can take along time to recover from.