Is Josh Allen really as INT prone as being made out to be? Spoiler Alert - NO

[Alphadawg7]

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

[WotAGuy]

I feel like statistical comparisons are more relevant against his peers than ex players.  The game has changed so much, even since Brees started playing. 

[Dillenger4]

Compelling argument - thanks for sharing! Makes sense. I would love to see interception at "a bad time in game" stat. Josh is #3 all-time. Google it....

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

I feel like statistical comparisons are more relevant against his peers than ex players.  The game has changed so much, even since Brees started playing. 

 

CORRECTION:  I said 3rd because I saw a stat about that on Twitter, but when I went back it wasn't the same stat.  I will need to go do a check myself on the current ones, so don't want to give you bad info.  After doing a quick check amongst the better QB's of Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Herbert, Lamar, Tua, and Burrow.  

 

On that spot check, it went Mahomes and Hurts as top 2, then Herbert and Lamar were just above Allen, then it was Allen with Burrow slightly behind him, and Tua was far back at 2.4 to 1.  So he was at 5th not 3rd before checking everyone else.  But him, Lamar, Herbert, and Burrow were all pretty closely grouped.  Hurts has a high INT rate compared to passing TD's, but he has so many tush push rushing TD's that it makes his TD to INT rate pretty good.  

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[BuffBillsForLife]

Leave Brit Brett alone!

[WotAGuy]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Ok, he is 3rd in the NFL amongst his peers now behind only Rodgers and Mahomes.  

That’s what is important - how he stacks up against the Hurts, Mahomes, Jacksons of the current group.  Statistically Josh is right up there, but he is unique in his ability to make something out of nothing. Hard to measure that statistically. I’m glad the Bills don’t have to play against Josh.  He’s got to really piss ya off watching him do what he does as an opponent. 

[TheWei44]

Nice work here!  And it is key to measure it this way (picks relative to throws) - So many stats thrown around these days fail to account for 17-game season, changes in rules, whether QB sits most of his first year, etc.  This is much more of a pure metric.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by TheWei44

[Success]

To me, the ratio part is the most important.

 

JA knows how to score TD's.

 

[PatsFanNH]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

OMG while I agree, You shouldn’t comparing his stats to guys who have played like a decade longer or more than him just isn’t a good comparison! Farve has more Int Than any other QB in NFL history! He owns that record by a lot! 
 

the problem for Allen is a lot of his INT the last 8 games have turned into points for the other team.. and with every loss less than a TD those end up being huge.. and just like the QB gets to much credit for wins they get just as much blame for losses. 

[zman44]

I’m all for your argument but it seems like you’re giving Josh rushing TDs with his TD to Int rate and not including fumbles which he did have a pretty big problem with.   Would need to re do the other QBs ratios accordingly but I’d imagine his fumbles are much higher than most QBs.  

[Alphadawg7]

13 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

That’s what is important - how he stacks up against the Hurts, Mahomes, Jacksons of the current group.  Statistically Josh is right up there, but he is unique in his ability to make something out of nothing. Hard to measure that statistically. I’m glad the Bills don’t have to play against Josh.  He’s got to really piss ya off watching him do what he does as an opponent. 

 

See my correction on my comment above where I misread a tweet that said 3rd, but it was talking a different ratio.  So I went back and edited my comment to reflect that so you don't get wrong info.  

[H2o]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

And all of the bold/underlined QB's are in the HOF. This is what I was talking about with the clown world photo "building the worst QB" bull crap. Many people are stupid and have trouble developing a rational thought of their own, so they repeat whatever clown on social media or some "sports" network says. The bobbleheads in sports media they listen to still hold that ax to the grindstone every chance they get. Completely clueless insights from most of them with constant regurgitation of the same ole feces based off of a single play or taking a quick glance at a stat line. It's cool though. Hopefully Josh gets to hoist a Lombardi one day (which I still believe happens) and then does this during the press conference. 

 

[Alphadawg7]

22 minutes ago, zman44 said:

I’m all for your argument but it seems like you’re giving Josh rushing TDs with his TD to Int rate and not including fumbles which he did have a pretty big problem with.   Would need to re do the other QBs ratios accordingly but I’d imagine his fumbles are much higher than most QBs.  

 

Correct, I did not include fumbles as the meat of the thread was addressing the media narrative that Josh in interception prone, so it was how often does he really throw interceptions.  

 

For the TD to INT rate, I did include rushing TD's for all QB's as a comparison to how often he throws an INT vs scoring a TD as this again was addressing the narrative about his interception totals being too high.  

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[SWATeam]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Correct, I did not include fumbles as the meat of the thread was addressing the media narrative that Josh in interception prone, so it was how often does he really throw interceptions.  

 

For the TD to INT rate, I did include rushing TD's for all QB's as a comparison to how often he throws an INT vs scoring a TD as this again was addressing the narrative about his interception totals being too high.  

 

Note:  Josh has also reduced his fumbles quite a bit and also has zero fumbles in his career in the post season.

Didn't he have that ridiculous lateral fumble against HOU?

Looks like he has 8 postseason fumbles to me?

[Alphadawg7]

32 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

OMG while I agree, You shouldn’t comparing his stats to guys who have played like a decade longer or more than him just isn’t a good comparison! Farve has more Int Than any other QB in NFL history! He owns that record by a lot! 
 

the problem for Allen is a lot of his INT the last 8 games have turned into points for the other team.. and with every loss less than a TD those end up being huge.. and just like the QB gets to much credit for wins they get just as much blame for losses. 

 

The problem is to compare them to all time greats, that means their careers are over.  And I included many recent greats who played in this era and Mahomes.  

And more importantly, to talk about his "last 8 games" without discussing the NIGHT and DAY difference between the Dorsey led offense avg 20.5 PPG for 6 of those games and the Joe Brady led offense avg 33 PPG for the other 2 is leaving out some SIGNIFICANT context.  

 

Allen already has the record for most TD in first 6 years and still has 5 more games to go to finish that 6th year.  Just watch Allen cook the league these final 5 games with the OC switch.  He is the 2nd best QB in the NFL and he is about to remind the world of that here down the stretch.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[SWATeam]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I only checked lost fumbles...which are the turnovers.  I found 0, could have been a mistake, but I saw 0 lost fumbles.  

I see 8 fumbles in 8 playoff games.  To go along with 56 regular season fumbles.  It's very hard to argue that he hasn't been a turnover machine.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

40 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

Couldn't agree more and have been saying the same things myself.

[mjt328]

I agree the media overblows Josh Allen's turnovers (you must include fumbles, not just interceptions).

But that doesn't mean he can't do better.  He does have the most in the NFL this year, and over the last 4-5 years.

 

 

For me, the question is what he provides to the team vs. what he takes away.

He's got 209 touchdowns in 89 career games (2.34 average per game), along with countless 1st-down conversions that nobody else in the league could manage to make.  Compare that to 96 turnovers (1.07 per game).

 

If you look at the Bills losses over the last 4-5 seasons, I would say very few were due to excessive turnovers.  At the same time, the Bills probably don't make the playoffs in any of those years without the special contributions of Allen.

 

[Matt_In_NH]

I make this argument all the time but people dont want to hear it.  However his INT% is going up not down.  This year his INT rate is up to 3.0% which is too high.  In 2020 it was 1.7% which should be close to his target.  

[Alphadawg7]

14 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Didn't he have that ridiculous lateral fumble against HOU?

Looks like he has 8 postseason fumbles to me?

 

Yeah you are right, not sure why one site showed 0...just double checked stat muse and Allen has 2 career lost post season fumbles.  So seems correct answer is 2 actually.  Thanks for pointing that out

 

5 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

I see 8 fumbles in 8 playoff games.  To go along with 56 regular season fumbles.  It's very hard to argue that he hasn't been a turnover machine.

 

He doesn't have 56 fumble turnovers though...he has only 23 lost fumbles, those are the only ones that have been turnovers.  And all the other all time greats had fumbles too I did not factor in.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Charles Romes]

Are Allen’s stats being inflated here by counting total touchdowns rather than passing touchdowns.  That is commonly done by Allen supporters.  

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I make this argument all the time but people dont want to hear it.  However his INT% is going up not down.  This year his INT rate is up to 3.0% which is too high.  In 2020 it was 1.7% which should be close to his target.  

 

To be fair...One word:  D O R S E Y

 

His INT % is at its worst under Dorsey.  It's at his career avg of 2.4% under Brady and really its at 1.2% under Brady because one of his 2 INT's with Brady at OC was a hail mary and not off a targeted pass thrown.

 

4 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

Are Allen’s stats being inflated here by counting total touchdowns rather than passing touchdowns.  That is commonly done by Allen supporters.  

 

First of all, the meat of the stats is INT per pass thrown...has nothing to do with TD's.

 

Second of all, running or passing, its a TD scored by the QB.  It counts the same on the board, to disregard it for him or any QB is pretty absurd.  Take away Hurts rushing TD's and his stats are terrible for example yet he is the MVP front runner.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Matt_In_NH]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

One word:  D O R S E Y

 

His INT % is at its worst under Dorsey.  It's at his career avg of 2.4% under Brady and really its at 1.2% under Brady because one of his 2 INT's with Brady at OC was a hail mary.

Not trying to be argumentative but his worst INT% was as a rookie which was Dabol I think.  And no way you can tell anything about Brady in two games, there is a lack of samples.  I hope like heck he can have some 0 INT games down the stretch.   I don't think it is appropriate to just blame Dorsey for the INT's.  Many have been bad decisions made by Josh, IMO people have blinders on when it ever comes to criticizing Josh.  He can be both the great player that we love and someone who can commit less turnovers.

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

First of all, the meat of the stats is INT per pass thrown...has nothing to do with TD's.

 

Second of all, running or passing, its a TD scored by the QB.  It counts the same on the board, to disregard it for him or any QB is pretty absurd.  Take away Hurts rushing TD's and his stats are terrible for example yet he is the MVP front runner.  

Does a fumble lost count the same as an INT then?   Also, you cannot put people like Montana and Marino in this conversation without adjusting for their era.  QB's have gotten way more efficient across the board, Allen should be compared to Mahomes, Jackson, Herbert, Rodgers and others playing today

[BillMafia716ix]

He leads the league in turnovers every year. That’s not a coincidence. It’s facts

Edited November 29, 2023 by BillMafia716ix

[BillsFan130]

Yep. I don’t know why people get caught up so much in the INTs.

 

Does he have to limit them at times?

For sure.

 

But we see how ordinary he is when “Josh “ isnt allowed to be “Josh”

 

Got to take some bad with the greatness

[Success]

8 minutes ago, BillMafia716ix said:

He leads the league in turnovers every year. That’s not a coincidence. It’s facts

 

He also leads in TD's.

 

[DuckyBoys]

He's had some extraordinarily bad luck with picks this year  We can always go back to Capt Checkdown type of qb and eliminate a lot of those picks  Its fun watching your qb checkdown on 3rd and 25

[Dablitzkrieg]

Yes, yes he is 

[Freddie's Dead]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

 

Stop confusing us with facts!  What about the fact that he's thrown an INT in 8 straight games, huh?  He sucks, I tell ya!!

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

I agree the media overblows Josh Allen's turnovers (you must include fumbles, not just interceptions).

But that doesn't mean he can't do better.  He does have the most in the NFL this year, and over the last 4-5 years.

 

 

For me, the question is what he provides to the team vs. what he takes away.

He's got 209 touchdowns in 89 career games (2.34 average per game), along with countless 1st-down conversions that nobody else in the league could manage to make.  Compare that to 96 turnovers (1.07 per game).

 

If you look at the Bills losses over the last 4-5 seasons, I would say very few were due to excessive turnovers.  At the same time, the Bills probably don't make the playoffs in any of those years without the special contributions of Allen.

 

 

Under Dorsey, Allens INT % was 17% higher than under Daboll or even Brady. Technically if you don't count the hail mary INT, Allen has 1 INT on real throws in 2 games under Brady and his INT % is half what it was under Dorsey, although the sample size is way too small.  But even if you count the hail mary his INT % is the same as Daboll which is much better than Dorsey.  

 

And no disrespect, but fumbles are not part of the equation when discussing his rate of throwing interceptions, which is what I was addressing here, the media's narrative around how many interceptions Josh throws.  

[Aimee75]

The turnover discussion is exhausting/low hanging fruit. Obviously none of us want him to turn the ball over(and he could clean those up), or give the other team momentum when he does, but outside of The Jets game, I can't think of any this season where his turnovers outright cost the team. It's a low hanging fruit discussion at this point. Usually when he screws up, he atones for it, as he did against The Eagles, and The Broncos. We don't have other players stepping up to the plate when he puts us into position to win, and that is more the problem than anything else. We are literally going to have to score and get the lead of a game with 1 second on the clock at this rate, or blow the other team out, because those are our only chances of winning these days.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

16 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

He's had some extraordinarily bad luck with picks this year  We can always go back to Capt Checkdown type of qb and eliminate a lot of those picks  Its fun watching your qb checkdown on 3rd and 25

 

Coming into the Philly game, I saw Dan Orlovsky say that Josh was tied with CJ Stroud as the 7th best in the NFL on throwing the least amount of interceptable passes, yet he still leads the NFL in INT's.  So why is that...well it suggests two things...good throws by Josh that turn into INT's from a mistake by the receiver and more volume on attempts than lots of other QB's.  

[BullBuchanan]

turnovers are a byproduct of his poor decision making. For every turnover, he has 3-5 more throw into multiple coverages, a missed progression, a bad call of when to stay or bail in the pocket, and when to fight for an extra half yard vs taking a massive hit. He may do just fine on an SAT, but on a football field he's got terrible judgement.

To be his best, he needs an offense that makes the decisions for him, because he's not going to outsmart any defenses and he'll rarely even see the holes.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Coming into the Philly game, I saw Dan Orlovsky say that Josh was tied with CJ Stroud as the 7th best in the NFL on throwing the least amount of interceptable passes, yet he still leads the NFL in INT's.  So why is that...well it suggests two things...good throws by Josh that turn into INT's from a mistake by the receiver and more volume on attempts than lots of other QB's.  

Some of it really just variance

 

Don't know if anyone watched the Texans Jags game but Stroud threw Tank Dell the same pass vs the same DB that Allen went deep to Diggs in London, Dell made the contested catch and vs us the DB made the contested INT

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

Add fumbles please

[Alphadawg7]

52 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Not trying to be argumentative but his worst INT% was as a rookie which was Dabol I think.  And no way you can tell anything about Brady in two games, there is a lack of samples.  I hope like heck he can have some 0 INT games down the stretch.   I don't think it is appropriate to just blame Dorsey for the INT's.  Many have been bad decisions made by Josh, IMO people have blinders on when it ever comes to criticizing Josh.  He can be both the great player that we love and someone who can commit less turnovers.

 

I was referring to seasons...I said worst period - as in what was Josh INT % during the period with Daboll vs the his INT % with Dorsey.  And you are only furthering my point as the first 2 years Daboll had hm, Josh was raw and had very little talent or weapons around Josh.  Yet Josh INT % was still significantly lower during the time with Daboll than with Dorsey.  

 

And yes, sample size is small with Brady, but you can't dismiss that mid season the offense went from 20.5 PPG against weak defenses the previous 6 games to 33 PPG against tough defenses in Brady's first 2 games with the same personnel and not having the luxury of spending a whole offseason putting his stamp on the offense (Dorsey had 2).  

 

Josh Allen since Brady took over has 710 yards and 7 TD's in 2 games against tough defenses, and one of those games was in a terrible rain storm.  NIGHT & DAY difference from Dorsey, so its relevant.  

 

52 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Does a fumble lost count the same as an INT then?   Also, you cannot put people like Montana and Marino in this conversation without adjusting for their era.  QB's have gotten way more efficient across the board, Allen should be compared to Mahomes, Jackson, Herbert, Rodgers and others playing today

 

Again, we are discussing frequency of interceptions, has nothing to do with fumbles.  

 

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Add fumbles please

 

Feel free to start a thread to discuss what ever you would like...but here, we are specifically talking about his interceptions and if he is really as prone to throwing Interceptions as he has made out to be.  Which has nothing to do with fumbles.  

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[90sBills]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Again, we are discussing frequency of interceptions, has nothing to do with fumbles.  

 

 

The narrative is Allen being turnover prone. Fumbles are turnovers. They hurt just as bad, if not worse, as interceptions. 

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I was referring to seasons...I said worst period - as in what was Josh INT % during the period with Daboll vs the his INT % with Dorsey.  And you are only furthering my point as the first 2 years Daboll had hm, Josh was raw and had very little talent or weapons around Josh.  Yet Josh INT % was still significantly lower during the time with Daboll than with Dorsey.  

 

And yes, sample size is small with Brady, but you can't dismiss that mid season the offense went from 20.5 PPG against weak defenses the previous 6 games to 33 PPG against tough defenses in Brady's first 2 games with the same personnel and not having the luxury of spending a whole offseason putting his stamp on the offense (Dorsey had 2).  

 

Josh Allen since Brady took over has 710 yards and 7 TD's in 2 games against tough defenses, and one of those games was in a terrible rain storm.  NIGHT & DAY difference from Dorsey, so its relevant.  

 

 

Again, we are discussing frequency of interceptions, has nothing to do with fumbles.  

 

 

Feel free to start a thread to discuss what ever you would like...but here, we are specifically talking about his interceptions and if he is really as prone to throwing Interceptions as he has made out to be.  Which has nothing to do with fumbles.  

 

 

5 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

 

The narrative is Allen being turnover prone. Fumbles are turnovers. They hurt just as bad, if not worse, as interceptions. 

Allen doesn’t turn it over a lot, but let’s not talk about his fumbles is pretty weak tbh. Especially when you count his rushing TD’s.

Edited November 29, 2023 by FireChans

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

Allen doesn’t turn it over a lot, but let’s not talk about his fumbles is pretty weak tbh. 

 

No, read the thread title and OP.  This thread is discussing the narrative around his interceptions which if you turn on a TV is what is predominantly being discussed.  Again, if you or the other poster you quoted want to start your own thread to talk about a completely different topic, then feel free to do so and I will be happy to participate in it.  But the thread title and OP very specifically identified the topic of this conversation.  

 

8 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

 

The narrative is Allen being turnover prone. Fumbles are turnovers. They hurt just as bad, if not worse, as interceptions. 

 

No, his interceptions and leading the NFL right now in interceptions is predominantly what is being discussed.  Regardless, this thread is discussing the narrative around him being prone to interceptions and if that is accurate or not.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[BBFL]

You talk to another teams fans and Josh is brought up, the majority think he’s the real deal. 
 

Weird how some of our fans won’t accept that. He has flaws but the talent is off the charts.