Is Josh Allen really as INT prone as being made out to be? Spoiler Alert - NO

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Still has nothing to do with the conversation around Josh's interception rate or this thread.  

Correct but a turnover is a turnover. And you can probably make an argument that a fumble will result in better field position for the opponent as it is likely less far downfield and/or behind the LOS than an INT. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

 

Hysterical lol. @Alphadawg7 you dog! Josh worse than Daniel Jones, Sammy Bradford and Neil "the Wheel" O'Donnell?

 

 

the lengths they go to to protect the narrative…. It’s like the other one who walked through all the seasons he wasn’t INT leader and then switched to int% for the season he was… 😂 

 

as they say the first step is admitting you have a problem. It’s like getting Tim Tebow fans to admit he had some mechanics issues. 

[Alphadawg7]

19 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

What’s the purpose of this exercise? Turnovers hurt a team’s chances of winning. Allen has a negative narrative of being a qb that, while great, is prone to mistakes and turning the ball over. So I don’t get your insistence that fumbles should not count. Why? Because it bolster the case against Allen? I doubt Allen cares. I’m sure he and the team recognize this is an issue and are working on solutions to get them lowered. 

 

LMAO, this is just getting comical now.  I just can't explain this again...seriously my bad everyone for starting a thread about "interceptions" and expecting the conversation to be about "interceptions".  

[FireChans]

18 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

the lengths they go to to protect the narrative…. It’s like the other one who walked through all the seasons he wasn’t INT leader and then switched to int% for the season he was… 😂 

 

as they say the first step is admitting you have a problem. It’s like getting Tim Tebow fans to admit he had some mechanics issues. 

Saying "this QB is great and one of the best in the NFL but turns it over a lot" shouldn't be hard

[Alphadawg7]

 

25 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean I guess you proved your point of the thread. Allen has never led the nfl in ints. Myself and others think it would be more interesting to include all ints and fumbles because the stat is Allen leads in turnovers since he entered the nfl.

 

Everyone knows Allen is awesome. But why are so many soccer moms about him? Just feel like this was misleading and deflecting of the point that Allen has some turnover issues. He is making $45 million. Hes allowed to be held to a really high standard.

 

I addressed interceptions and frequency of them specifically for 3 reasons:  

1.   Almost every single person is referencing his interceptions in media.

2.  Darius Slays comments after the Phi game saying that of course his INT totals will be higher with how much he has to throw.

3.  The constant lazy Farve comparisons.

 

This is literally why I looked into this and was curious to how Allen stacked up against not just Farve but other greats both recent and in the past.  I did not start a thread about turnovers, fumbles or anything else...just fact checking where Allens interception rate was after Slays comments made me want to look into it. 

 

But others apparently have a different agenda...so be it. 

 

 

 

 

[John from Riverside]

My question has always been if the quarterback gets the receiver right in the hands with the ball and he bounces it in the air and it’s intercepted. Should the quarterback get blamed for that
 

Because that seems to happen to Josh Allen a lot

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

My question has always been if the quarterback gets the receiver right in the hands with the ball and he bounces it in the air and it’s intercepted. Should the quarterback get blamed for that
 

Because that seems to happen to Josh Allen a lot

 

And it is why coming into Philly that Dan Orlovsky pointed out that Josh was tied for 7th best with CJ Stroud on thowing the least amount of interceptable passes.  He said that him leading the NFL still despite that in INT is a telling sign that his teammates are letting him down more than they should. 

[Meatloaf63]

4 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I make this argument all the time but people dont want to hear it.  However his INT% is going up not down.  This year his INT rate is up to 3.0% which is too high.  In 2020 it was 1.7% which should be close to his target.  

He had better wide receivers that year.

4 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

Are Allen’s stats being inflated here by counting total touchdowns rather than passing touchdowns.  That is commonly done by Allen supporters.  

I take it you’re not an Allen supporter🤦‍♂️

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

I addressed interceptions and frequency of them specifically for 3 reasons:  

1.   Almost every single person is referencing his interceptions in media.

2.  Darius Slays comments after the Phi game saying that of course his INT totals will be higher with how much he has to throw.

3.  The constant lazy Farve comparisons.

 

This is literally why I looked into this and was curious to how Allen stacked up against not just Farve but other greats both recent and in the past.  I did not start a thread about turnovers, fumbles or anything else...just fact checking where Allens interception rate was after Slays comments made me want to look into it. 

 

But others apparently have a different agenda...so be it. 

 

 

 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/11/14/bills-josh-allen-interception-issues

 

SI:AM | Josh Allen’s Turnover Issues Are Sinking the Bills

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/11/14/josh-allen-turnover-issues-bills-broncos-russell-wilson

 

Josh Allen’s Turnover Issues Can No Longer Be Overlooked

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/josh-allen-turnovers-bills-qb-interceptions-fumbles-problem-issues/iarfyhwyodsurqzleuwhq3bo

 

Josh Allen turnover problems: Breaking down Bills QB's recent issues with fumbles and interceptions

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/djsiddiqi/2023/09/12/josh-allen-and-his-turnover-issues-create-a-major-problem-for-the-buffalo-bills/?sh=163e0da04d4d

 

Josh Allen And His Turnover Issues Create A Major Problem For The Buffalo Bills

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/josh-allen-interceptions-fumbles-turnovers-bills-qb/c16a2675a4a49e7a22163407

 

Josh Allen interceptions: Bills QB leads league in picks, lost fumbles as turnover problems continue

 

https://apnews.com/article/josh-allen-bills-turnovers-analysis-77d6e53e22ad938400d9dc415f1df1b3

 

Josh Allen’s turnover troubles too much to overcome in Bills season-opening loss

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/bills-josh-allen-turnover-machine-112747394.html

 

The Bills' Josh Allen is a turnover machine, and he's the only one to blame

 

Come on. There's intentionally obtuse and then this.

Edited November 30, 2023 by FireChans

[GoBills808]

49 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I get that. I'm kinda torn on it because a mishandled snap and basically an automatic loss of down happens a lot more than a true fumble that is a mad scramble.

 

Hysterical lol. @Alphadawg7 you dog! Josh worse than Daniel Jones, Sammy Bradford and Neil "the Wheel" O'Donnell?

 

You switched the samples. And the pathology reports! You kill Lentz, too?! Huh?! Did you?!

 

Sure, which is why if you're gonna include his rushing TD's, then include his fumbles.

That's the point of this exercise 

 

If you put Allen's total TD/INT up he's going to fare really well because he is a TD machine

 

If you go total TDs/turnovers (or INTs+fumbles) he still does ok but not as well obviously

 

The context is how much he's asked to do wrt offensive production/surrounding talent/schem coaching etc etc vs his peers

 

He's still top tier no matter how you slice it imo

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/11/14/bills-josh-allen-interception-issues

 

SI:AM | Josh Allen’s Turnover Issues Are Sinking the Bills

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/11/14/josh-allen-turnover-issues-bills-broncos-russell-wilson

 

Josh Allen’s Turnover Issues Can No Longer Be Overlooked

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/josh-allen-turnovers-bills-qb-interceptions-fumbles-problem-issues/iarfyhwyodsurqzleuwhq3bo

 

Josh Allen turnover problems: Breaking down Bills QB's recent issues with fumbles and interceptions

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/djsiddiqi/2023/09/12/josh-allen-and-his-turnover-issues-create-a-major-problem-for-the-buffalo-bills/?sh=163e0da04d4d

 

Josh Allen And His Turnover Issues Create A Major Problem For The Buffalo Bills

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/josh-allen-interceptions-fumbles-turnovers-bills-qb/c16a2675a4a49e7a22163407

 

Josh Allen interceptions: Bills QB leads league in picks, lost fumbles as turnover problems continue

 

https://apnews.com/article/josh-allen-bills-turnovers-analysis-77d6e53e22ad938400d9dc415f1df1b3

 

Josh Allen’s turnover troubles too much to overcome in Bills season-opening loss

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/bills-josh-allen-turnover-machine-112747394.html

 

The Bills' Josh Allen is a turnover machine, and he's the only one to blame

 

Come on. There's intentionally obtuse and then this.

 

LMAO you are kidding right?  You can google "Josh Allen Interceptions" and find a long list too.  And who does that?  Turn on any of the mainstream sports shows and podcasts and they are always talking about interceptions.  

 

This is why its pointless to start threads on this board...honestly, prob be my last for a while. 

[Meatloaf63]

2 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

Doesn’t matter when you’re constantly turning the ball over.  Its impossible to stay consistent and when your not consistent you lose football games. Just like Sunday. Josh interception vs. Philly completely changed the momentum of the game. Philly got the lead and gained confidence. 

They already had confidence and were scoring at will.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

That's the point of this exercise 

 

If you put Allen's total TD/INT up he's going to fare really well because he is a TD machine

 

If you go total TDs/turnovers (or INTs+fumbles) he still does ok but not as well obviously

 

The context is how much he's asked to do wrt offensive production/surrounding talent/schem coaching etc etc vs his peers

 

He's still top tier no matter how you slice it imo

See I'd just love to see this comparison. If Allen has say, the third best TD/TO ratio since entering the league, I'd be like, "yeah the criticism of his INT's and fumbles is overblown."

 

@Alphadawg7 didn't do that. That probably would have refuted the narrative. It's a shame.

 

I agree he's top tier regardless. Your stance has been he's such a tuddy machine, you gotta live with some TO's too, and I don't disagree with that

[Meatloaf63]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/11/14/bills-josh-allen-interception-issues

 

SI:AM | Josh Allen’s Turnover Issues Are Sinking the Bills

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/11/14/josh-allen-turnover-issues-bills-broncos-russell-wilson

 

Josh Allen’s Turnover Issues Can No Longer Be Overlooked

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/josh-allen-turnovers-bills-qb-interceptions-fumbles-problem-issues/iarfyhwyodsurqzleuwhq3bo

 

Josh Allen turnover problems: Breaking down Bills QB's recent issues with fumbles and interceptions

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/djsiddiqi/2023/09/12/josh-allen-and-his-turnover-issues-create-a-major-problem-for-the-buffalo-bills/?sh=163e0da04d4d

 

Josh Allen And His Turnover Issues Create A Major Problem For The Buffalo Bills

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/josh-allen-interceptions-fumbles-turnovers-bills-qb/c16a2675a4a49e7a22163407

 

Josh Allen interceptions: Bills QB leads league in picks, lost fumbles as turnover problems continue

 

https://apnews.com/article/josh-allen-bills-turnovers-analysis-77d6e53e22ad938400d9dc415f1df1b3

 

Josh Allen’s turnover troubles too much to overcome in Bills season-opening loss

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/bills-josh-allen-turnover-machine-112747394.html

 

The Bills' Josh Allen is a turnover machine, and he's the only one to blame

 

Come on. There's intentionally obtuse and then this.

Posting a bunch of poorly written articles is proving the original poster’s point and you fell right into it.

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

LMAO you are kidding right?  You can google "Josh Allen Interceptions" and find a long list too.  And who does that?  Turn on any of the mainstream sports shows and podcasts and they are always talking about interceptions.  

 

This is why its pointless to start threads on this board...honestly, prob be my last for a while. 

Don’t let a few 🤡’s spoil it for you.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

See I'd just love to see this comparison. If Allen has say, the third best TD/TO ratio since entering the league, I'd be like, "yeah the criticism of his INT's and fumbles is overblown."

 

@Alphadawg7 didn't do that. That probably would have refuted the narrative. It's a shame.

 

I agree he's top tier regardless. Your stance has been he's such a tuddy machine, you gotta live with some TO's too, and I don't disagree with that

 

If that is the comparison you want to see, then go do the work and post a thread on it.  You don't need to hijack another thread and try and get someone else to do the work for you that took the time to talk about something else.  

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Meatloaf63 said:

Posting a bunch of poorly written articles is proving the original poster’s point and you fell right into it.

They all say turnovers, not just interceptions, and the OP has been saying the "narrative is only about his interceptions, not fumbles" lol.

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

If that is the comparison you want to see, then go do the work and post a thread on it.  You don't need to hijack another thread and try and get someone else to do the work for you that took the time to talk about something else.  

I think we had some pretty good discussion here, personally. I'm sorry I didn't agree with your premise or OP. That's kinda what happens when you make a topic. 

 

You put yourself out there for discussion and sometimes criticism/feedback.

[Meatloaf63]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

They all say turnovers, not just interceptions, and the OP has been saying the "narrative is only about his interceptions, not fumbles" lol.

You can carry it to fumbles if you want, but then you have to bring in how many rushes does he have vs every other and rushing yards & rushing TD’s and then the narrative will get destroyed again as only Jackson and maybe Mahomes will be in the same class. Duh LOL…

[stevewin]

I've often thought with all the stat processing outlets, next gen stats etc it should be easy enough to create a metric 'Interceptions QB at Fault' - take out the ones that bounce off receivers hands and maybe even hail mary's at the end of half/game that are just thrown up as prayers (advanced stat could even try to determine if receiver at fault by not running route, stopping route etc) - willing to bet Josh's IQAF would be lower than a lot of QBs he has more ints than now

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Saying "this QB is great and one of the best in the NFL but turns it over a lot" shouldn't be hard

Or even…. God forbid… he’s really good, but if he just big boy’d up in a few areas of his game the team would be winning superbowls. 
 

It’s so hard to watch such a great talent continue to underachieve when it matters. 
 

!@#$ even Tom Brady said it to him…. Just manage risk a bit and win!!! 

Maybe he knows something about winning??

[CSBill]

5 hours ago, SWATeam said:

I see 8 fumbles in 8 playoff games.  To go along with 56 regular season fumbles.  It's very hard to argue that he hasn't been a turnover machine.

 

To me, the fumbles have always been the most troubling. Many--most--of those come when he is trying to do too much. But this season has not been as bad. He only has 4 in 12 games (3 lost); last year, it was 13, and 5 lost.

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

He leads the league in turnovers every year. That’s not a coincidence. It’s facts

Just last year Dak threw more INT's then Allen playing in 5 less games.

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

LMAO you are kidding right?  You can google "Josh Allen Interceptions" and find a long list too.  And who does that?  Turn on any of the mainstream sports shows and podcasts and they are always talking about interceptions.  

 

This is why its pointless to start threads on this board...honestly, prob be my last for a while. 

What I find ridiculous is these trolling cretins make you have to defend A BUFFALO BILLS QB who is one of the top 2 QB's in the NFL on a Buffalo Bills message board.  What the FREAKING hell is that?

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

Oh and for the record including all fumble rather then fumbles lost is stupid.  Why not include dropped INT's or almost INT's? 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

Doesn’t matter when you’re constantly turning the ball over.  Its impossible to stay consistent and when your not consistent you lose football games. Just like Sunday. Josh interception vs. Philly completely changed the momentum of the game. Philly got the lead and gained confidence. 

WRONG. What completely changed the momentum of the game was the defenses inability to stop the Eagles once they got hot.  You seem to forget that the Eagles had easily gone down the field to cut the Bills lead from 24 - 14 to 24 - 21. That changed the momentum.  Allen's INT after that was a product of his forcing the ball realizing that the D was falling apart again.  What's surprising and a testament to Allen's skill is that after falling behind 28 - 24 Allen led the Bills on a TD drive that retook the lead, regained momentum and should have won the game.

 

You and others are pushing a deeply dishonest take on what happened last Sunday.  And you're doing it so you can bash Allen. 

 

 

[MJS]

Do you notice how most of those on that list below Josh Allen are from different eras of the game?

 

Allen has a high INT% this year. He is at 3.0, which is bad in today's NFL. In my opinion, you want to be at 2.5 or under, which other years he has been. Clearly, it is too much this year.

 

Of QB's who have started 11 or more games this year, only Mac Jones has a higher INT%.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Do you notice how most of those on that list below Josh Allen are from different eras of the game?

 

Allen has a high INT% this year. He is at 3.0, which is bad in today's NFL. In my opinion, you want to be at 2.5 or under, which other years he has been. Clearly, it is too much this year.

 

Of QB's who have started 11 or more games this year, only Mac Jones has a higher INT%.

 

He is at 1.22% since Brady took over if you don't count the Hail Mary.  2 games is a small sample size, but its a substantial difference.  Offense was avg 20.5 PPG final 6 games Dorsey was here against mostly pretty weak competition and 33 PPG against the stellar Jets D that smashed the Bills offense week 1 under Dorsey and a tough D from one of the best teams in the league on the road in Philly.

 

In fact, Josh Allens INT % was 17% higher under Dorsey than Daboll, and that includes Daboll having to coach Allen his first 2 years as a RAW player with no weapons or talent around him to work with.  Dorsey had prime Allen with Diggs and company, including this year which is probably the most talented offensive roster in the Beane/Allen ERA.  

 

So I think there it is safe to say that Dorsey is a big reason for that and it might just be different moving forward with Brady (or whoever if Brady isn't back next year).  

[Thurman#1]

Spoiler alert:  YES.

 

2.5% last year. That's high. Seriously high. 25th best ranking in the NFL in 2022 in terms of INT percentage. Only 34 players qualifed for the list by having 200 or more attempts. 25th out of 34. The guys behind Josh that year? Stafford, Carr, Matt Ryan, Zach Wilson, Mariota, Davis Mills, Wentz, Justin Fields and Dak dead last. 

 

Now the guys just ahead of him, from 2.2% and back to Josh? Aaron Rodgers having a down year. Russ Wilson having a catastrophic year. Kenny Pickett, Taylor Heinicke, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield and Mac Jones. Again, those are the guys ABOVE Josh.

 

3.0% this year. That's terrible. No kidding, it's really bad. Seriously high. 29th best ranking in the NFL in 2022 in terms of INT percentage. Only 35 guys have qualified with the 200 attempts threshold this year so far. The guys behind Josh? Aidan O'Connell, Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, Ryan Tannehill, Tyson Bagent and Jimmy Garoppolo. How does that list look?

 

And the ten guys immediately ABOVE Josh this year, in order from best to worst? Bryce Young, Deshaun Watson, Minshew, Josh Dobbs, Stafford, Tagovailoa, Sam Howell, Jordan Love, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts and Desmond Ridder. There's a QB or two there who are good, but mostly dross.

 

So, yeah, Allen is having too many INTs the last couple of years. He just is.

 

Yeah, he managed to do quite a bit better from 2019 to 2021, at 2.0%, 1.7% and 2.3%. Those much better years keep his career numbers looking reasonable. 

 

But right now he's just not avoiding INTs like he should.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

He is at 1.22% since Brady took over if you don't count the Hail Mary.  2 games is a small sample size, but its a substantial difference.  Offense was avg 20.5 PPG final 6 games Dorsey was here against mostly pretty weak competition and 33 PPG against the stellar Jets D that smashed the Bills offense week 1 under Dorsey and a tough D from one of the best teams in the league on the road in Philly.

 

In fact, Josh Allens INT % was 17% higher under Dorsey than Daboll, and that includes Daboll having to coach Allen his first 2 years as a RAW player with no weapons or talent around him to work with.  Dorsey had prime Allen with Diggs and company, including this year which is probably the most talented offensive roster in the Beane/Allen ERA.  

 

So I think there it is safe to say that Dorsey is a big reason for that and it might just be different moving forward with Brady (or whoever if Brady isn't back next year).  

 

 

Fair enough that the last two games he's been better. That's a positive trend. It makes me hopeful.

 

But it's really not safe to say that Dorsey is a big reason for that. The uptrend had started the year before Dorsey took over. 2.3%, his figure in Daboll's last year, was Allen's worst under Daboll barring Allen's rookie year. And the difference between Daboll's last year and Dorsey's first was the difference between 2.3% and 2.5%.  Not a significant difference.

 

So no, it's not safe to say that. It's very possible that it's a factor, but equally possible the uptick is something else, perhaps a more relaxed way of handling the off-season than he had earlier, for instance. Not saying that's it, but it's one of a number of possibilities among possible major factors. And Dorsey is one of those.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, MJS said:

Do you notice how most of those on that list below Josh Allen are from different eras of the game?

 

Allen has a high INT% this year. He is at 3.0, which is bad in today's NFL. In my opinion, you want to be at 2.5 or under, which other years he has been. Clearly, it is too much this year.

 

Of QB's who have started 11 or more games this year, only Mac Jones has a higher INT%.

 

 

More like 2.0%, honestly. 2.5% is still pretty bad these days.

[MJS]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

He is at 1.22% since Brady took over if you don't count the Hail Mary.  2 games is a small sample size, but its a substantial difference.  Offense was avg 20.5 PPG final 6 games Dorsey was here against mostly pretty weak competition and 33 PPG against the stellar Jets D that smashed the Bills offense week 1 under Dorsey and a tough D from one of the best teams in the league on the road in Philly.

 

In fact, Josh Allens INT % was 17% higher under Dorsey than Daboll, and that includes Daboll having to coach Allen his first 2 years as a RAW player with no weapons or talent around him to work with.  Dorsey had prime Allen with Diggs and company, including this year which is probably the most talented offensive roster in the Beane/Allen ERA.  

 

So I think there it is safe to say that Dorsey is a big reason for that and it might just be different moving forward with Brady (or whoever if Brady isn't back next year).  

Hopefully that turns out to be true and will continue.

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

More like 2.0%, honestly. 2.5% is still pretty bad these days.

Yeah, but I meant 2.5 as kind of the upper bound. Ideally you want it lower, for sure.

[ProcessTruster]

15 hours ago, Dillenger4 said:

Compelling argument - thanks for sharing! Makes sense. I would love to see interception at "a bad time in game" stat. Josh is #3 all-time. Google it....

yeah that dumb throw 4th quarter pick to the Eagles was the turning point in the second half for sure.  

[BlazinBill]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

 

If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

 

It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

 

There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

 

Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

 

Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

Tom Brady = 1.8%

Drew Brees = 2.3%

Josh Allen = 2.4%

Matt Stafford = 2.4%

Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

Joe Montana = 2.6%

Steve Young = 2.6%

Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

Peyton Manning = 2.7%

Cam Newton = 2.7%

Dan Marino = 3.0%

Troy Aikman = 3.0%

John Elway = 3.1%

Kurt Warner = 3.1%

Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

Brett Favre = 3.3%

Warren Moon = 3.4%

Jim Kelly = 3.7%

 

Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

 

Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

 

Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

 

It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

 

NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

 

So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

 

Thank you so much for taking the time and effort to put this together. It's good to see the energy put into the best QB to ever wear a Bills jersey.

As fans we tend to get very low and panic when things aren't as they should - probably the biggest reason the majority are not coaches or GM's in The NFL despite the majority on here clearly being qualified- blatant sarcasm there.

We have the guy we need and I still Billieve he brings 1 home- not sure when but almost certain he will - IMO Sunday against the Eagles is another example - that dude just wills this offense to perform when he really needs it too- now we just need the supporti g team to helps balance the ebbs and flows

 

[Chicken Boo]

This is funny, being that Drew Brees also turned the ball over a lot and at the absolute worst times.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

yeah that dumb throw 4th quarter pick to the Eagles was the turning point in the second half for sure.  

In what way?  Did that INT end the game giving the Eagles the win? Did that INT result in the Eagles going on a scoring run and burying the Bills?  What I saw was that Allen came back and led the Bills to the lead with less then 2 minutes left in the game and the D couldn't make it hold up.

 

This notion that Allen's INT was any kind of turning point in that game is just not supported by the evidence.  It was no more a turning point then the dropped TD pass or 2 missed FG's. 

 

In fact if you want to call out the closest thing to a turning point in this game you have to point at the defense allowing the Eagles to march down the field to cut the Bills 24 - 14 lead to 24 - 21 early in the 4th quarter.  That got the crowd back into it and fired up the Eagles D.  A simple stop by the Bills D giving Allen and the offense the ball back in the 4th quarter with a TEN POINT LEAD likley ends the game.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Fair enough that the last two games he's been better. That's a positive trend. It makes me hopeful.

 

But it's really not safe to say that Dorsey is a big reason for that. The uptrend had started the year before Dorsey took over. 2.3%, his figure in Daboll's last year, was Allen's worst under Daboll barring Allen's rookie year. And the difference between Daboll's last year and Dorsey's first was the difference between 2.3% and 2.5%.  Not a significant difference.

 

So no, it's not safe to say that. It's very possible that it's a factor, but equally possible the uptick is something else, perhaps a more relaxed way of handling the off-season than he had earlier, for instance. Not saying that's it, but it's one of a number of possibilities among possible major factors. And Dorsey is one of those.

 

 

It climbed further this year under Dorsey too.  So his two highest periods of his career were under Dorsey and getting worse.  And again, Dorsey gone and Bills are avg 13 points per game more and against tougher competition.  
 

So everything still suggests Dorsey was a major issue for this offense and didn’t have Allen playing his best football either.

[FLFan]

13 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

WRONG. What completely changed the momentum of the game was the defenses inability to stop the Eagles once they got hot.  You seem to forget that the Eagles had easily gone down the field to cut the Bills lead from 24 - 14 to 24 - 21. That changed the momentum.  Allen's INT after that was a product of his forcing the ball realizing that the D was falling apart again.  What's surprising and a testament to Allen's skill is that after falling behind 28 - 24 Allen led the Bills on a TD drive that retook the lead, regained momentum and should have won the game.

 

You and others are pushing a deeply dishonest take on what happened last Sunday.  And you're doing it so you can bash Allen. 

 

 

Also, Hurts had two turnovers in that game which also impacted the score.  You are right about the “analysis” that you responded to being disingenuous at best.

[Thurman#1]

40 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

It climbed further this year under Dorsey too.  So his two highest periods of his career were under Dorsey and getting worse.  And again, Dorsey gone and Bills are avg 13 points per game more and against tougher competition.  
 

So everything still suggests Dorsey was a major issue for this offense and didn’t have Allen playing his best football either.

 

Not everything, hell, not even this evidence suggests that Dorsey was a major issue for this. It just doesn't. 

 

Hi first very significant rise in percentage, a jump of 0.6 percent, happened under Daboll. Between Daboll's third and fourth years, Allen went from 7th best in the league at 1.6% to 18th best. Again, under Daboll, a major drop.

 

If Dorsey were the problem, his first year, when he took over from Daboll would see a major jump. But that's not what happened. He only got 0.2% worse. 

 

The difference between Dorsey's first and second years would not be significant if Dorsey were the main part of the problem. But in fact he went up 0.5%.

 

What all this tells us is that the ups and downs do NOT correlate well at all with the difference between Daboll and Dorsey. It tells us that it's likely something else. There's likely some effect from the OC, absolutely. But the biggest changes happened between two years when Daboll was coordinator and then again between two years when Dorsey was.

 

Something else is at play. Perhaps several things.

 

I have a guess, myself. Remember early in his career, when in the offseason Josh would go to work on improving one aspect of his game that needed work? Remember? One year it was deep ball accuracy, which improved greatly the next year. The year before that it was mechanics and footwork and using the turn of his torso to generate force. After that it was touch and accuracy on short passes, which also greatly improved. Remember that?

 

What did he work on the last couple of offseasons? We didn't hear much of anything. In his interview with that Dallas podcast he said this offseason he's just relaxing, getting healthy. Whisky was mentioned. This was the best way for him, he said. The switch in girlfriends was not really mentioned, but dating a movie star isn't concentrating on touch and accuracy on short passes.

 

Josh didn't used to get out-worked. These days, he is.

 

 

40 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

It climbed further this year under Dorsey too.  So his two highest periods of his career were under Dorsey and getting worse.  And again, Dorsey gone and Bills are avg 13 points per game more and against tougher competition.  
 

So everything still suggests Dorsey was a major issue for this offense and didn’t have Allen playing his best football either.

 

 

Again, the difference between Daboll's last year and Dorsey's first was statistically pretty much insignificant. 2.3% and 2.5%. If that were where the problem was, that's where we'd see the effects hit. We don't.

[julian]

20 hours ago, SWATeam said:

I see 8 fumbles in 8 playoff games.  To go along with 56 regular season fumbles.  It's very hard to argue that he hasn't been a turnover machine.

Agreed… luckily he’s also a TD machine, a highlight machine and a winning machine.

 

 Bills fans are extremely lucky they turned the card in with Allen’s name on it that fateful day.

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, julian said:

Agreed… luckily he’s also a TD machine, a highlight machine and a winning machine.

 

 Bills fans are extremely lucky they turned the card in with Allen’s name on it that fateful day.

It doesn't matter to these folks

 

They already don't care that Allen scores the most points in the league, or generates the most offensive value, or has one of the highest CPOE, or any number of metrics that put him at the top of the NFL rn...they also won't be satisfied if he isn't also lowest turnover rate in the league

 

Nothing but being at the absolute top of every statistical category, every single game of every single season is acceptable 

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

In what way?  Did that INT end the game giving the Eagles the win? Did that INT result in the Eagles going on a scoring run and burying the Bills?  What I saw was that Allen came back and led the Bills to the lead with less then 2 minutes left in the game and the D couldn't make it hold up.

 

This notion that Allen's INT was any kind of turning point in that game is just not supported by the evidence.  It was no more a turning point then the dropped TD pass or 2 missed FG's. 

 

In fact if you want to call out the closest thing to a turning point in this game you have to point at the defense allowing the Eagles to march down the field to cut the Bills 24 - 14 lead to 24 - 21 early in the 4th quarter.  That got the crowd back into it and fired up the Eagles D.  A simple stop by the Bills D giving Allen and the offense the ball back in the 4th quarter with a TEN POINT LEAD likley ends the game.

 

 

 

 

Did that INT give the Eagles the win?

 

It led directly to seven Eagles points. So, kinda.

 

At that point in the game neither team could stop the other and they were going back and forth between Buffalo up by 10 and Buffalo up by 3.

 

Buffalo up by 3 with the ball and the INT happens. Not only does Buffalo lose the possession but the Eagles get the ball on the Bills 24 yard line, put up seven and take the lead for the first time since the 1st quarter.

 

You're kidding yourself if you don't think that was a huge turning point. Not the only turning point, there were a bunch. But that was a huge moment. 

 

Instead of going back and forth between Bills by 10 and Bills by 3, now the lead is switching back and forth.

 

That defensive failure you're referring to didn't switch things at all, really. They'd been going back and forth from up 3 to up 10 since it was 17-7. That was more of the same. The Bills got the ball back and had been marching up and down the field for a while. Then Josh throws the INT.

 

It was absolutely a big big turning point. It should be pointed out that even with that included Allen had a terrific game. But without that, they probably win. But you could say the same for several other turning points, Cook's drop of a TD catch, the two failures of FGs ...

 

In the end, you're greatly overstating the case here. He's neither "wrong" nor "deeply dishonest." There is no wrong or right here. The two of you have a reasonable disagreement and both of you are spinning like a centrifuge.

 

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It doesn't matter to these folks

 

They already don't care that Allen scores the most points in the league, or generates the most offensive value, or has one of the highest CPOE, or any number of metrics that put him at the top of the NFL rn...they also won't be satisfied if he isn't also lowest turnover rate in the league

 

Nothing but being at the absolute top of every statistical category, every single game of every single season is acceptable 

 

 

Equally, for some folks, INTs are just OK and should be ignored because he's a good player. Nothing but ignoring the INTs and considering them completely acceptable is in any way reasonable.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Thurman#1

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Did that INT give the Eagles the win?

 

It led directly to seven Eagles points. So, kinda.

 

At that point in the game neither team could stop the other and they were going back and forth between Buffalo up by 10 and Buffalo up by 3.

 

Buffalo up by 3 with the ball and the INT happens. Not only does Buffalo lose the possession but the Eagles get the ball on the Bills 24 yard line, put up seven and take the lead for the first time since the 1st quarter.

 

You're kidding yourself if you don't think that was a huge turning point. Not the only turning point, there were a bunch. But that was a huge moment. 

 

Instead of going back and forth between Bills by 10 and Bills by 3, now the lead is switching back and forth.

 

That defensive failure you're referring to didn't switch things at all, really. They'd been going back and forth from up 3 to up 10 since it was 17-7. That was more of the same. The Bills got the ball back and had been marching up and down the field for a while. Then Josh throws the INT.

 

It was absolutely a big big turning point. It should be pointed out that even with that included Allen had a terrific game. But without that, they probably win. But you could say the same for several other turning points, Cook's drop of a TD catch, the two failures of FGs ...

 

In the end, you're greatly overstating the case here. He's neither wrong nor blatantly dishonest. The two of you have a disagreement and both of you are spinning like a centrifuge.

 

 

Equally, for some folks, INTs are just OK and should be ignored because he's a good player. Nothing but ignoring the INTs and considering them completely acceptable is in any way reasonable.

How could I possibly ignore the INTs lol

 

You bring them up every chance you can