Josh’s stats so far - the Ken Dorsey Offense

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

Josh runs on just wing it and sling it. 
 

My guess is there’s a lot going on here part is on the OL, but part of it is Josh identifying and setting the protection at the LOS. 

wait for the all22

 

you are going to be amazed at how poorly the offensive line played yesterday

[Airseven]

Not sure if it’s Dorsey’s play design or Allen’s recognition that’s the bigger hindrance. I do know Dorsey would look better if the OL could block or if Allen could hit some of these open throws. The ‘ole scramble-right-and-chuck-it has been figured out.

[Mango]

A lot of talk about Josh’s game changing a ton in year 2 under Dorsey. 
 

Dorsey deserves some blame here. Mostly around play calling and play design. 
 

But one thing I’m slow to come around on is Dorsey being responsible for a change in Allen’s tendencies in year 2 as OC. KD was Josh’s QB coach for 3 years, helping Josh to know when to throw and when to run. Last year Allen ran more in 16 games than any season in his career. And now suddenly in year 5 with Allen, Dorsey has gone “remember everything we talked about the last 4-5 years. Screw it. Only stay behind the line of scrimmage.”

 

It doesn’t add up to me. 

[CSBill]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

We are second in the NFL in RZ TD percentage.

Problem is, we have not been getting to the red zone in the last three games. 

[HoofHearted]

4 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Yep.  Josh may like shotgun, but they are more effective under center.  McBeane may want 12 and 21 personnel, but safe ball control football is not the way.

 

Josh cooks under 11 personnel.  What the hell are they doing when Harty gets 1 catch and McD pulls him.  The fastest guy on the team except for Isabella.

 

Stop with this insistence on ball control and 12 personnel.  Josh likes throwing it downfield and to WR’s and is darn good at it.

 

Stop with handcuffing Josh running.  It’s not working.  It’s a big part of his game.

 

We drove in Q4 twice for TD’s because we went 11.  We also have success in empty.

 

The defense is seriously hurt by the losses of Daquan, Milano, Tre and temporarily Oliver.  Our defense works with interior pressure.  We had none yesterday and made Mack look all world.

 

This was most pathetic loss of the McD era.  You guys know me and I’m very positive about my Bills because I love them and have been in McBeanes corner, but something dramatic needs to  change 

 

I can’t watch another performance like this with Tampa.  Besides I’ll never hear the end of it from all of my friends in Tampa.

This is exactly why they're in 12 personnel...

[MAJBobby]

40 minutes ago, jlgarsh said:

He drops the easy catches too sometimes. The nickname Dropsome Knox didn't come overnight 

So that is the pivot for the late throw making an easy catch exponentially harder is Knox drops easy ones two and why I gave him a nickname?

[ALLinALLEN]

I just went back and watch the game online and Josh was scrambling backwards on almost every dropback.....Did the OLine play bad or are teams starting to send more rushers knowing that Josh is trying to take safe short throws and not running? 

[jlgarsh]

14 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

So that is the pivot for the late throw making an easy catch exponentially harder is Knox drops easy ones two and why I gave him a nickname?

The throw could have been a bit earlier/better. But Knox is getting paid $15 million to make catches that aren't ideal. 

[MAJBobby]

Just now, jlgarsh said:

The throw could have been a bit earlier/better. But Knox is getting paid $15 million to make catches that aren't ideal. 

Could have SHOULD HAVE.  GET THE BALL OUT ON TIME that would be Ideal

16 minutes ago, ALLinALLEN said:

I just went back and watch the game online and Josh was scrambling backwards on almost every dropback.....Did the OLine play bad or are teams starting to send more rushers knowing that Josh is trying to take safe short throws and not running? 

Should an Elite QB not be able to see the pressure and get to the Hot?

[Gugny]

4 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

It seems like Allen doesn’t trust the 1st read.  He holds it, scrambles out and tries to make the great play throwing on the run.

 

What happened to snap, 3 step drop and out?

Beane ignored the need for a WR2. 

[Scott7975]

I don't care if Dorsey scheme is amazing and the dude calls a perfect game.  If our offense can't run that offense then it is the wrong offense.  Our talent is subpar, our oline started good and is now a big failure as well.  They took an elite QB and turned him into a mid QB asking him to do things that isn't what he excels at. They neutured Josh to play safe football.  This is what McDermott wants. This is why Daboll left mad. This is why Dorsey got the job, because he is a yes sir man.

 

I don't care what the stats show.  This offense is bad and the stats are feeding off a couple games.  If people are blind and can't see this offense is dumpster fire then there is nothing anyone can tell them.  They just want to pump stats at you. We haven't done jack in 3 weeks now. 2nd and short is a good time to take shots.  We had 2nd and short 6 times this week.  It was a Cook run every time.  Yes, he got the first down 5/6 times but its a missed opportunity to take a deep shot that could get a big chunk in favor of playing safe, predictable football that needs to be perfect execution with a bunch of mediocre guys and only 2 real playmakers. One of which has been castrated.

Edited October 23, 2023 by Scott7975

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Airseven said:

Not sure if it’s Dorsey’s play design or Allen’s recognition that’s the bigger hindrance. I do know Dorsey would look better if the OL could block or if Allen could hit some of these open throws. The ‘ole scramble-right-and-chuck-it has been figured out.

For the record Allen hits most of his open throws.  That is not the problem. The drop in the O lines pass protection effectiveness is the problem.

 

And don't you think Allen would look better if the OL could block to?  After all Allen is the immediate recipient of the O lines problems in both a literal and figurative way.

 

 

 

 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

5 hours ago, Roundybout said:

Through seven games, Josh’s stats are as follows:  

 

2020: 175/259, 2,018 yards, 16 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 12 sacks.  

2021: 178/272, 1,972 yards, 17 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 8 sacks.  

2022: 173/264, 2,198 yards, 19 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 11 sacks.  

2023: 174/246, 1,841 yards 15 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 10 sacks.  

 

We see that Josh has thrown fewer passes with a similar amount completions, but with fewer yards and touchdowns, reflecting an offense prioritizing safe football instead of explosive plays. We also see more interceptions although that’s skewed by the awful Jets game.  

 

We also see a bit more success in the run game aside from Josh, as Cook’s 417 yards are the best a Bills RB has had through this span in some time. 

I dont get it, when I add the bolded numbers they total more than the underlined numbers.  So fewer attempts but MORE yards and MORE TD's!?!?  At the end of the day, from a statistical stand point, not sure there is any significance to these numbers....it is 7 games.  Except for interceptions....those are up, are we blaming Dorsey? 

[ngbills]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

For the record Allen hits most of his open throws.  That is not the problem. The drop in the O lines pass protection effectiveness is the problem.

 

And don't you think Allen would look better if the OL could block to?  After all Allen is the immediate recipient of the O lines problems in both a literal and figurative way.

 

 

 

 

 

We have had bad OL's in the past. They are not adjusting to either quicker routes, hot reads or Allen runs/stepping up in the pocket. Right now Allen is holding on to the ball, scrambling to the side vs stepping up, and slinging it. 

[Matt_In_NH]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

We are second in the NFL in RZ TD percentage.

Also second in points......however, the last three weeks have been a problem, not sure anyone will really disagree with that.  I do think there are unrealistic expectations that the offense should crush all defenses every week no matter what.

[Roundybout]

8 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I dont get it, when I add the bolded numbers they total more than the underlined numbers.  So fewer attempts but MORE yards and MORE TD's!?!?  At the end of the day, from a statistical stand point, not sure there is any significance to these numbers....it is 7 games.  Except for interceptions....those are up, are we blaming Dorsey? 

1,841 is more than 2,018 and 1,972?

[Returntoglory]

5 hours ago, Roundybout said:

Through seven games, Josh’s stats are as follows:  

 

2020: 175/259, 2,018 yards, 16 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 12 sacks.  

2021: 178/272, 1,972 yards, 17 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 8 sacks.  

2022: 173/264, 2,198 yards, 19 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 11 sacks.  

2023: 174/246, 1,841 yards 15 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 10 sacks.  

 

We see that Josh has thrown fewer passes with a similar amount completions, but with fewer yards and touchdowns, reflecting an offense prioritizing safe football instead of explosive plays. We also see more interceptions although that’s skewed by the awful Jets game.  

 

We also see a bit more success in the run game aside from Josh, as Cook’s 417 yards are the best a Bills RB has had through this span in some time. 

But yet you leave out Josh's running Stats.

[Big Turk]

5 hours ago, zow2 said:

On ESPN this morning, Orlovsky showed specific plays where the Bills fail miserably when responding to heavy pressure and blitzing.  It's a big problem he says and been that way for 5 years.  But they didn't blame Allen even though he makes some bad decisions.  Said We would never come back in any of these games without Allen being amazing.

 

The problem specifically seems to be in the 1st halves, because the protection gets better in the 2nd halves. 

[Billl]

8 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I dont get it, when I add the bolded numbers they total more than the underlined numbers.  So fewer attempts but MORE yards and MORE TD's!?!?  At the end of the day, from a statistical stand point, not sure there is any significance to these numbers....it is 7 games.  Except for interceptions....those are up, are we blaming Dorsey? 

The stats don't tell the whole story due to the fact that McDermott is more than happy to run up the score and pad stats when he can.  Josh has 10 TD passes, 2 INTs, and 0 fumbles in the 4 wins.  He's got 5 TD passes, 5 INTs, and 3 fumbles in the 3 losses.

[Ray Ray]

Can we please develop a screen pass play.  The OL, which can’t block, maybe good at blocking for a screen pass .  Please!

[Roundybout]

3 minutes ago, Returntoglory said:

But yet you leave out Josh's running Stats.

Yes, wanted to focus purely on passing to show how the scheme has changed 

[BuffaloTX]

If I see another shotgun handoff at the 1...

[Matt_In_NH]

10 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

1,841 is more than 2,018 and 1,972?

No the totals for Dorsey’s two years are more than the totals for Dabols two years.  We are talking Dorsey vs dabol right?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Even I don’t know how this is possible? Is every other offense just terrible? 

 

 

[Buffaloflash]

5 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

The offensive coordinator does take blame when the offense seems uncoordinated. 

Or, very predictable.

[Matt_In_NH]

6 minutes ago, Billl said:

The stats don't tell the whole story due to the fact that McDermott is more than happy to run up the score and pad stats when he can.  Josh has 10 TD passes, 2 INTs, and 0 fumbles in the 4 wins.  He's got 5 TD passes, 5 INTs, and 3 fumbles in the 3 losses.

Running up the score and having better stats in wins are different things.  The bills have not run up the score.   
 

if you are advocating for cutting out turnovers sign me up.  

[ngbills]

Pick group 1 or group 2:

 

Group 1:

297 passing yards (7th), 56 rushing yards (2nd)

317 passing yards (6th), 10 rushing yards (12th)

400 passing yards (2nd), 47 rushing yards (4th)

213 passing yards (12th), 70 rushing yards (1st)

424 passing yards (1st), 42 rushing yards (6th)

329 passing yards (4th), 32 rushing yards (8th)

218 passing yards (11th tied), 49 rushing yards (3rd)

 

Group 2

236 passing yards (10th), 36 rushing yards (7th)

274 passing yards (8th), 7 rushing yards (13th)

218 passing yards (11th tied), 46 rushing yards (5th)

320 passing yards (5th), 17 rushing yards (9th tied)

359 passing yards (3rd), 14 rushing yards (10th)

169 passing yards (13th), 11 rushing yards (11th)

265 passing yards (9th), 17 rushing yards (9th tied)

 

Group 1 has 5 of the top 7 passing yards and 5 of the top 6 rushing yards. But Allen is having a better year because he is completely more 1 yard dump offs. Ok. 

[Yockopondowsk]

It is on Dorsey. Opponents don’t fear us.  They should’ve been looking for that swing pass late, that’s on McD.  

[PBF81]

5 hours ago, Roundybout said:

We also see a bit more success in the run game aside from Josh, as Cook’s 417 yards are the best a Bills RB has had through this span in some time. 

 

Last season through 7 games we had 860 rushing yards.  

This season, 790 so far.  

 

642 and 4 TDs w/o Allen's contributions.  Cook has 1 TD, Murray 2, and Harris 1.  

 

Last season thru 7 games Allen had 306 yards and 2 TDs.  

 

Without him last season, the first 7 games, the team had 554 yards.  Cook & McKenzie both had 1 TD.  

 

 

[Billl]

12 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Running up the score and having better stats in wins are different things.  The bills have not run up the score.   
 

if you are advocating for cutting out turnovers sign me up.  

In their first 3 wins of the season, they had big leads at halftime in each.  They proceeded to outscore their opponents by a combined 55-9 in the second half.  They absolutely run up the score when they can.

 

They did the same thing early last season winning 31-10 against the Rams, 41-7 against the Titans, and 38-3 against the Steelers.  The combined scores in the second halves of those games was 52-0.  If that isn't running up the score, I don't know what is.

[sunshynman]

They need to take the handcuffs off Josh. Don't call QB running plays, and not too many options plays. But don't tell him not to run when he needs to make a play. His best runs are when the play breaks down and he spies an opening. Don't worry about him sliding or getting out of bounds. When his running he is expecting the hits. Let him do him. He is getting hurt in the pocket! 

 

He should be given 2 or 3 options to call at the line after seeing the D line up. Put it on his shoulders, it's the way the offense runs best. Now it won't work everytime. But we will see less of the stalled lifeless drives that we have the past 3 games. 

 

The D injuries hurt us a lot. Jones being the worst one. We need a second DT now. But if the O get's in sync faster, we score enough to allow the D to be aggressive and can live with some mistakes there. 

[Roundybout]

17 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Even I don’t know how this is possible? Is every other offense just terrible? 

 

 

I don’t understand these magic “advanced” stats. Unless they keep using our games against Washington where we ran up the score.

[Matt_In_NH]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

In their first 3 wins of the season, they had big leads at halftime in each.  They proceeded to outscore their opponents by a combined 55-9 in the second half.  They absolutely run up the score when they can.

 

They did the same thing early last season winning 31-10 against the Rams, 41-7 against the Titans, and 38-3 against the Steelers.  The combined scores in the second halves of those games was 52-0.  If that isn't running up the score, I don't know what is.

I know you cannot see it another way but 37 and 38 points is not running it up.  They spend 4th quarters running clock.   The dolphins ran up the score vs the broncos.  And I am good scoring 48 vs the dolphins every day. 
 

 

 

 

[ngbills]

Take out the LAV and MIA game and it gets worse.

 

122-184 (66%) completions

1247 passing yards (249 per game)

8 TD

7 INT

22 rushes for 124 yards (25 per game)

 

Is that who Josh Allen is? A 66% completion guy with 250 yds, 1TD/I Int and 25 rushing yards per game?

 

[RunTheBall]

I don’t think Dorsey schemes the offense to take advantage of the opposing defense’s weaknesses.

 

He may scheme against expected defensive looks, but it doesn’t seem like he looks at the opposing players and says “This guy sucks, and this unit blows, so we are going to design our game plan to exploit that” unless it’s a crappy corner one on one with Diggs and then any of us All Pro OC’s as Josh would say could call the same game.

 

Also, there doesn’t seem to be any set up of plays. It’s the friggin Magic 8 Ball offense where you shake up the plays and just run whatever pops up.

 

Good offensive coordinators know how teams are going to attack us, plan how to exploit that, then also plan for the expected defensive adjustments to that exploitation in advance. 

Edited October 23, 2023 by RunTheBall

[Billl]

2 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I know you cannot see it another way but 37 and 38 points is not running it up.  They spend 4th quarters running clock.   The dolphins ran up the score vs the broncos.  And I am good scoring 48 vs the dolphins every day. 
 

 

 

 

There's nothing wrong with it.  I'm just saying that stats get skewed when scores are run up in games that are already decided.  I'm not going to be impressed by an OC who can't win a low scoring game simply because he can put up a ton of fluff points in blowouts.  

[ngbills]

5 minutes ago, Billl said:

In their first 3 wins of the season, they had big leads at halftime in each.  They proceeded to outscore their opponents by a combined 55-9 in the second half.  They absolutely run up the score when they can.

 

They did the same thing early last season winning 31-10 against the Rams, 41-7 against the Titans, and 38-3 against the Steelers.  The combined scores in the second halves of those games was 52-0.  If that isn't running up the score, I don't know what is.

MIA and LAV he played lights out.

The rest have been bad to blah. WASH game we only had 16 points going into the 4th. No need to bring up the NYJ, JAX, NYG, NE games other than point out the O was not good enough, especially early in the last 3 (10 points total in those 1st half. Actually only 17 in the first 3 qtrs of all three- that makes 42 of our last 59 points all in the 4th quarter. You can spin it as at least they dont quit or that Bills were in do or die mode vs teams holding leads. 

[Matt_In_NH]

5 minutes ago, Billl said:

There's nothing wrong with it.  I'm just saying that stats get skewed when scores are run up in games that are already decided.  I'm not going to be impressed by an OC who can't win a low scoring game simply because he can put up a ton of fluff points in blowouts.  

I am good with your reasoning on being impressed but why is it the OCs job to win and lose vs the head coach, defense, quarterback?   Lots of blame on Dorsey but I am not convinced it is totally warranted. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

19 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

I don’t understand these magic “advanced” stats. Unless they keep using our games against Washington where we ran up the score.

Weeks 5-7.

 

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[somnus00]

5 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Yep.  Josh may like shotgun, but they are more effective under center.  McBeane may want 12 and 21 personnel, but safe ball control football is not the way.

 

Josh cooks under 11 personnel.  What the hell are they doing when Harty gets 1 catch and McD pulls him.  The fastest guy on the team except for Isabella.

 

Stop with this insistence on ball control and 12 personnel.  Josh likes throwing it downfield and to WR’s and is darn good at it.

 

Stop with handcuffing Josh running.  It’s not working.  It’s a big part of his game.

 

We drove in Q4 twice for TD’s because we went 11.  We also have success in empty.

 

The defense is seriously hurt by the losses of Daquan, Milano, Tre and temporarily Oliver.  Our defense works with interior pressure.  We had none yesterday and made Mack look all world.

 

This was most pathetic loss of the McD era.  You guys know me and I’m very positive about my Bills because I love them and have been in McBeanes corner, but something dramatic needs to  change 

 

I can’t watch another performance like this with Tampa.  Besides I’ll never hear the end of it from all of my friends in Tampa.

Coach McDermott doesn't have issues benching guys when they make key mistakes. Yet Knox keeps getting the start. He needs to ride the bench with Kincaid getting the start. And like you said, 11 personnel seems to give the Bills a better shot.