2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Current Odds as of this morning. Odd via Bovada.

 

Purdy -200

Jackson +450

Prescott +750

Allen +850

McCaffery +1000

Hurts +1800

 

Allen has had a meteoric rise two straight weeks from +5500 down to +2200 down to +850. Had the Eagles game gone the Bills way he would probably be right there with Jackson at +450.

 

With Purdy and Jackson going head-to-head this week it could really give one of them a boost while possibly dropping the other down to third behind Allen. Assuming both Bills and Cowboys win this week, I see Allen leapfrogging Dak. The number one thing Allen needs right now more than TD's, yards, less turnovers, is just wins. Just keep stacking wins. Any loss would be the nail in the coffin for his MVP chances. 

 

As shocking as it sounds, I could see the loser of the Purdy/Jackson match up falling into a virtual tie with Allen. Yes, Purdy could stumble from -200 favorite to around +500 with Allen with a single loss. A Purdy loss would be huge in really opening the conversation up for all of the top 4 or 5. And because of Jackson's weak statistical output the door would remain open for guys like Dak, Allen and Purdy to capture the award before seasons end. 

 

 

 

 

Let me spin a theory on a possible scenario, so Purdy and Lamar go head to head, Ravens and 49ers have defenses so both may not light it up, but 49ers are my bet and Lamar is going to drop. He's honestly there because of team record and not shooting himself in the foot he hasn't really done anything amazing just look at his stats it's like he's there because nobody else is. Purdy I think wins and still splits with McCaffery but maybe the Ravens limit the performance wouldn't normally hurt his position except what else I think may happen.

 

So would you look at that Josh Allen hovering at the edge like an avalanche waiting to happen. So first on the schedule is the Chargers would not be surprised if lights them up interim coach surge be damned. Also conveniently timed with all this several former MVP leading candidates are all taking the turnover crown from Allen. Following weeks he has Patriots which yeah didn't play well the first time well that's happened before and he followed that up with a big performance not to mention Dorsey was predictable Brady not so much. Then the Dolphins I don't think I need to elaborate there.

 

Yeah the path is there.

[DCOrange]

I think Allen wins MVP if we win the division. If we are a wild card, he’ll have to play his ass off to have a chance. Missing the playoffs is obviously not an option if he wants to win MVP. 
 

Really though this feels like a year where a non-QB should win, be it McCaffrey or Tyreek. The QBs have all been pretty blah this season. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

I think Allen wins MVP if we win the division. If we are a wild card, he’ll have to play his ass off to have a chance. Missing the playoffs is obviously not an option if he wants to win MVP. 
 

Really though this feels like a year where a non-QB should win, be it McCaffrey or Tyreek. The QBs have all been pretty blah this season. 

 

 

I agree.....it's been the year of the playmaker.......not the QB.

 

Defense's are making it hard for QB's to make the plays and the teams that are killing it this year are doing so because they have multiple play makers and defense's simply can't bracket them all.    

 

We tend to look at the Bills struggles under a microscope and thus can blame things like injuries and end-of-game coaching but in the scope of the entire league it's much easier to explain.  If they had a guy opposite Diggs who could make plays those close losses wouldn't even have been close games.   It's not a coincidence that guys like McCaffrey and Tyreek also have 1B options at playmaker.........and it's not a coincidence that the Bills look much better now that Cook has emerged as someone that defense's have to pay if they don't account for him.

 

[DapperCam]

Allen has to win out with 12 TDs and 2 or less turnovers.

 

Bills have to win the division and getting the #2 seed would help a lot as well. It’s a long shot, but he’s definitely gone on a heater like that in the past.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I agree.....it's been the year of the playmaker.......not the QB.

 

Defense's are making it hard for QB's to make the plays and the teams that are killing it this year are doing so because they have multiple play makers and defense's simply can't bracket them all.    

 

We tend to look at the Bills struggles under a microscope and thus can blame things like injuries and end-of-game coaching but in the scope of the entire league it's much easier to explain.  If they had a guy opposite Diggs who could make plays those close losses wouldn't even have been close games.   It's not a coincidence that guys like McCaffrey and Tyreek also have 1B options at playmaker.........and it's not a coincidence that the Bills look much better now that Cook has emerged as someone that defense's have to pay if they don't account for him.

 

 

Totally agree. The game this year has been about what your guys can do once they have the ball in their hands.

[HappyDays]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Totally agree. The game this year has been about what your guys can do once they have the ball in their hands.

 

Or what they can do when the ball is in the air... Drew Lock managed to out duel Jalen Hurts last night because his pass catchers made several exceptional catches on their game winning drive. You could probably count the number of exceptional plays by Bills pass catchers on one hand this year... Ditto for the Chiefs.

 

For my money Allen and Mahomes have pretty clearly been the most valuable QBs this year and it isn't particularly close. I think the MVP voters should give it to a skill player though just as a nod to how important those players have been this year in particular. If they give it to Purdy might as well re-name the award at this point.

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by HappyDays

[Sherlock Holmes]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Or what they can do when the ball is in the air... Drew Lock managed to out duel Jalen Hurts last night because his pass catchers made several exceptional catches on their game winning drive. You could probably count the number of exceptional plays by Bills pass catchers on one hand this year... Ditto for the Chiefs.

 

For my money Allen and Mahomes have pretty clearly been the most valuable QBs this year and it isn't particularly close. I think the MVP voters should give it to a skill player though just as a nod to how important those players have been this year in particular. If they give it to Purdy might as well re-name the award at this point.

 

Yes, Most Valuable Purdy trophy

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Or what they can do when the ball is in the air... Drew Lock managed to out duel Jalen Hurts last night because his pass catchers made several exceptional catches on their game winning drive. You could probably count the number of exceptional plays by Bills pass catchers on one hand this year... Ditto for the Chiefs.

 

For my money Allen and Mahomes have pretty clearly been the most valuable QBs this year and it isn't particularly close. I think the MVP voters should give it to a skill player though just as a nod to how important those players have been this year in particular. If they give it to Purdy might as well re-name the award at this point.

 

 

I feel the same on Purdy. We saw who he was when Samuel, Williams and CMC were out. It is elite players that win in this league. And the elite players on San Fran do not include the QB.

[DapperCam]

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Or what they can do when the ball is in the air... Drew Lock managed to out duel Jalen Hurts last night because his pass catchers made several exceptional catches on their game winning drive. You could probably count the number of exceptional plays by Bills pass catchers on one hand this year... Ditto for the Chiefs.

 

For my money Allen and Mahomes have pretty clearly been the most valuable QBs this year and it isn't particularly close. I think the MVP voters should give it to a skill player though just as a nod to how important those players have been this year in particular. If they give it to Purdy might as well re-name the award at this point.

 

Most Valuable Game Manager (also known as The Annual Brad Johnson award), given to the game manager that has demonstrated excellence in his field.

[SWATeam]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I feel the same on Purdy. We saw who he was when Samuel, Williams and CMC were out. It is elite players that win in this league. And the elite players on San Fran do not include the QB.

But how did it look with Lance at the controls?  It may not be sexy, but he's an effective point guard.  It's not as easy as it looks running a scheme perfectly, processing and distributing the ball quickly.

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

But how did it look with Lance at the controls?  It may not be sexy, but he's an effective point guard.  It's not as easy as it looks running a scheme perfectly, processing and distributing the ball quickly.

He’s better than Trey Lance. That’s true. 
 

Sort’ve damning with faint praise.

[Warcodered]

 

[GoBills808]

He's the MVP every year the Bills are relevant

 

it's just a matter of whether he wins the award or not

[FireChans]

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I feel the same on Purdy. We saw who he was when Samuel, Williams and CMC were out. It is elite players that win in this league. And the elite players on San Fran do not include the QB.

No shade against Purdy, bc I do believe he is executing the Shanny scheme at a high level.

 

But the Shanny scheme is notorious for being paint by numbers.

 

The honest question about Brock is if every QB was an FA tomorrow, where would Purdy rank contractually? He'd probably be floating around the top 10, which generally is the "good but not elite" QBs.

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

No shade against Purdy, bc I do believe he is executing the Shanny scheme at a high level.

 

But the Shanny scheme is notorious for being paint by numbers.

 

The honest question about Brock is if every QB was an FA tomorrow, where would Purdy rank contractually? He'd probably be floating around the top 10, which generally is the "good but not elite" QBs.

It is

 

You saw how bad Nick mullens actually is, ditto Beathard

 

These guys were reasonable NFL QBs under Shanahan

[DCOrange]

2 hours ago, SWATeam said:

But how did it look with Lance at the controls?  It may not be sexy, but he's an effective point guard.  It's not as easy as it looks running a scheme perfectly, processing and distributing the ball quickly.

Lance started and finished a grand total of 3 games, one of which was in a monsoon that barely resembled a football game (where Lance ended up with the most passing and rushing yards from either team). Kittle missed two of those three games and McCaffrey wasn't on the team yet.

 

Clearly Lance was disappointing enough in practice/was just injured too often for SF to give him a real chance, but I don't think it was really ever proven that the offense wouldn't work with him. And obviously the offense worked quite well with Jimmy G at the helm, who is a below average starting QB at best.

 

Having said all that, I think it's pretty clear Purdy is the best of the three QBs. I don't think he's proven himself to be on the same tier as guys like Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, etc. though, and I don't think he's the most valuable player on his own team, much less in the league (unless you maybe want to argue we should start factoring contracts into the MVP discussion in which his contract is obviously a huge bargain).

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Current Odds as of this morning. Odd via Bovada.

 

Purdy -200

Jackson +450

Prescott +750

Allen +850

McCaffery +1000

Hurts +1800

 

Allen has had a meteoric rise two straight weeks from +5500 down to +2200 down to +850. Had the Eagles game gone the Bills way he would probably be right there with Jackson at +450.

 

With Purdy and Jackson going head-to-head this week it could really give one of them a boost while possibly dropping the other down to third behind Allen. Assuming both Bills and Cowboys win this week, I see Allen leapfrogging Dak. The number one thing Allen needs right now more than TD's, yards, less turnovers, is just wins. Just keep stacking wins. Any loss would be the nail in the coffin for his MVP chances. 

 

As shocking as it sounds, I could see the loser of the Purdy/Jackson match up falling into a virtual tie with Allen. Yes, Purdy could stumble from -200 favorite to around +500 with Allen with a single loss. A Purdy loss would be huge in really opening the conversation up for all of the top 4 or 5. And because of Jackson's weak statistical output the door would remain open for guys like Dak, Allen and Purdy to capture the award before seasons end. 

 

 

This Jackson MVP hype train is just so F*in confusing to me!

 

Am I the only one?

 

I get Purdy.  I get Dak.  Heck, I even understood Tua while it lasted.

 

But Lamar??????

 

Lamar Jackson

3846 total yards

66.3% comp %

22 total TDs

13 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

0 Game Winning Drives

 

Josh Allen

3939 total yards

66.3% comp %

37 total TDs

17 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

2 Game Winning Drives

 

Brock Purdy

3933 total yards

69.8% comp %

31 total TDs

9 total TOs

0 4th Quarter Comebacks

0 Game Winning Drives

 

Dak Prescott

3851 total yards

68.8% comp %

30 Total TDs

9 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

2 Game Winning Drives

 

 

I don't even know if Lamar Jackson ends up with 30 TDs.  There is NO WAY Lamar is winning MVP.  

Edited December 19, 2023 by transplantbillsfan

[DapperCam]

10 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This Jackson MVP hype train is just so F*in confusing to me!

 

Am I the only one?

 

I get Purdy.  I get Dak.  Heck, I even understood Tua while it lasted.

 

But Lamar??????

 

Lamar Jackson

3846 total yards

66.3% comp %

22 total TDs

13 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

0 Game Winning Drives

 

Josh Allen

3939 total yards

66.3% comp %

37 total TDs

17 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

2 Game Winning Drives

 

Brock Purdy

3933 total yards

69.8% comp %

31 total TDs

9 total TOs

0 4th Quarter Comebacks

0 Game Winning Drives

 

Dak Prescott

3851 total yards

68.8% comp %

30 Total TDs

9 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

2 Game Winning Drives

 

 

I don't even know if Lamar Jackson ends up with 30 TDs.  There is NO WAY Lamar is winning MVP.  

Well, the MVP goes to the #1 seed QB from either conference with the best stats.

 

Ravens are going to be the #1 seed in the AFC, so that makes him one of two eligible players for the award.

[Punching Bag]

On 12/15/2023 at 10:15 AM, Since1981 said:

Unless third seed, MVP won’t happen. 1973 OJ MVP didn’t make playoffs—that can’t happen with ethos of MVP in 2023
 

I would argue the system is rigged in that Josh, Patty, Hill are 3 most important players “MIP” holding their teams together—-> as true team MVPs. But that’s not what NFL MVP is anymore. 

 

MVP has become a popularity contest.

[H2o]

Imo, McCaffrey is the MVP. He's easily going to have over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and he's already got 20 TD's. James Cook is #2 in rushing and he's 300 yards behind CMC. He would be having the same success with or without Purdy. Purdy would not be having the same success without McCaffrey. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

54 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This Jackson MVP hype train is just so F*in confusing to me!

 

Am I the only one?

 

I get Purdy.  I get Dak.  Heck, I even understood Tua while it lasted.

 

But Lamar??????

 

Lamar Jackson

3846 total yards

66.3% comp %

22 total TDs

13 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

0 Game Winning Drives

 

Josh Allen

3939 total yards

66.3% comp %

37 total TDs

17 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

2 Game Winning Drives

 

Brock Purdy

3933 total yards

69.8% comp %

31 total TDs

9 total TOs

0 4th Quarter Comebacks

0 Game Winning Drives

 

Dak Prescott

3851 total yards

68.8% comp %

30 Total TDs

9 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

2 Game Winning Drives

 

 

I don't even know if Lamar Jackson ends up with 30 TDs.  There is NO WAY Lamar is winning MVP.  

 

Agreed. He would be one of the most underwhelming MVP's ever. The fact that his team has been first in the conference for much of the season but he's hovered around 4-6th in odds for most the season is very telling. He has a chance to pick up some big wins to finish the season but even Dak at this point I think has a better chance of bouncing back and finishing strong with a respectable 38-39 TD's. 

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This Jackson MVP hype train is just so F*in confusing to me!

 

Am I the only one?

 

I get Purdy.  I get Dak.  Heck, I even understood Tua while it lasted.

 

But Lamar??????

 

Lamar Jackson

3846 total yards

66.3% comp %

22 total TDs

13 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

0 Game Winning Drives

 

Josh Allen

3939 total yards

66.3% comp %

37 total TDs

17 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

2 Game Winning Drives

 

Brock Purdy

3933 total yards

69.8% comp %

31 total TDs

9 total TOs

0 4th Quarter Comebacks

0 Game Winning Drives

 

Dak Prescott

3851 total yards

68.8% comp %

30 Total TDs

9 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

2 Game Winning Drives

 

 

I don't even know if Lamar Jackson ends up with 30 TDs.  There is NO WAY Lamar is winning MVP.  

If the award MUST go to a QB and the Bills miss the playoffs, Lamar or Dak would probably be my choice. He's been mostly great this season and has just been let down by his teammates time after time. Basically the opposite of Purdy where he's been the relative weak link (don't really mean this to be a diss even though it sounds like it; he's played well, but his playmakers have been remarkable) of the team more often than not but his teammates have been good enough that it doesn't matter. Lamar is missing the touchdowns on his resume compared to the others, but it's basically just because once they've gotten to the goal-line, they've let their RBs pound it in basically every time. Gus Edwards has 11 rushing TDs this season and his longest TD is 7 yards; after that it's 3. This isn't the case for any of the other MVP candidates.

 

But again, I really think it should be between Josh Allen (assuming Buffalo at least makes the playoffs), McCaffrey, and Tyreek Hill for MVP this season. I don't think guys like Lamar, Dak, Purdy, etc. are actually deserving this season. It's an underwhelming season for QB play.

Edited December 19, 2023 by DCOrange

[Process]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This Jackson MVP hype train is just so F*in confusing to me!

 

Am I the only one?

 

I get Purdy.  I get Dak.  Heck, I even understood Tua while it lasted.

 

But Lamar??????

 

Lamar Jackson

3846 total yards

66.3% comp %

22 total TDs

13 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

0 Game Winning Drives

 

Josh Allen

3939 total yards

66.3% comp %

37 total TDs

17 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

2 Game Winning Drives

 

Brock Purdy

3933 total yards

69.8% comp %

31 total TDs

9 total TOs

0 4th Quarter Comebacks

0 Game Winning Drives

 

Dak Prescott

3851 total yards

68.8% comp %

30 Total TDs

9 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

2 Game Winning Drives

 

 

I don't even know if Lamar Jackson ends up with 30 TDs.  There is NO WAY Lamar is winning MVP.  

No QB in NFL history gets praised more for 150 yds/1 TD than Lamar Jackson. 

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This Jackson MVP hype train is just so F*in confusing to me!

 

Am I the only one?

 

I get Purdy.  I get Dak.  Heck, I even understood Tua while it lasted.

 

But Lamar??????

 

Lamar Jackson

3846 total yards

66.3% comp %

22 total TDs

13 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

0 Game Winning Drives

 

Josh Allen

3939 total yards

66.3% comp %

37 total TDs

17 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

2 Game Winning Drives

 

Brock Purdy

3933 total yards

69.8% comp %

31 total TDs

9 total TOs

0 4th Quarter Comebacks

0 Game Winning Drives

 

Dak Prescott

3851 total yards

68.8% comp %

30 Total TDs

9 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

2 Game Winning Drives

 

 

I don't even know if Lamar Jackson ends up with 30 TDs.  There is NO WAY Lamar is winning MVP.  

Yeah it's entirely based on team record.

[H2o]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This Jackson MVP hype train is just so F*in confusing to me!

 

Am I the only one?

 

I get Purdy.  I get Dak.  Heck, I even understood Tua while it lasted.

 

But Lamar??????

 

Lamar Jackson

3846 total yards

66.3% comp %

22 total TDs

13 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

0 Game Winning Drives

 

Josh Allen

3939 total yards

66.3% comp %

37 total TDs

17 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

2 Game Winning Drives

 

Brock Purdy

3933 total yards

69.8% comp %

31 total TDs

9 total TOs

0 4th Quarter Comebacks

0 Game Winning Drives

 

Dak Prescott

3851 total yards

68.8% comp %

30 Total TDs

9 total TOs

1 4th Quarter Comeback

2 Game Winning Drives

 

 

I don't even know if Lamar Jackson ends up with 30 TDs.  There is NO WAY Lamar is winning MVP.  

It's Lamar. The sports media bobbleheads drool on themselves over Lamar. But, his team is currently the #1 seed. They also have some huge matchups the next couple of weeks @ SF and then at home against Miami. If Lamar shines in two W's then he could be getting his second trophy. If the Bills were 11-3, and currently #1 in the AFC, Allen would be the clear frontrunner. It's just the nature of the beast. 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Yes, Most Valuable Purdy trophy

 

Purdy-est Player?

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

It is

 

You saw how bad Nick mullens actually is, ditto Beathard

 

These guys were reasonable NFL QBs under Shanahan

 

Only for very brief periods. With those two the seriousness of the limitations showed even within the Shanny scheme. That isn't to dispute that he is the best Quarterback hider in the NFL. He totally is. And by a long way. But the fact Purdy has made it last for a year does suggest he is better than Mullens and Beathard.

[Sherlock Holmes]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Purdy-est Player?

I will be the judge and there will be a 10 way tie at least

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Only for very brief periods. With those two the seriousness of the limitations showed even within the Shanny scheme. That isn't to dispute that he is the best Quarterback hider in the NFL. He totally is. And by a long way. But the fact Purdy has made it last for a year does suggest he is better than Mullens and Beathard.

Garoppolo is the comp I think

[finn]

4 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Agreed. He would be one of the most underwhelming MVP's ever. The fact that his team has been first in the conference for much of the season but he's hovered around 4-6th in odds for most the season is very telling. He has a chance to pick up some big wins to finish the season but even Dak at this point I think has a better chance of bouncing back and finishing strong with a respectable 38-39 TD's. 

Remember Lamar made the Pro Bowl over Allen in 2020, despite inferior numbers nearly across the board? Allen ran second to Rogers in MVP voting and missed out on the Pro Bowl to fricking Lamar Jackson. Same story this year. Allen is twice the QB Jackson is. 

[julian]

I see people saying it’s a blah or down year for QBs so give it to CMC or Tyreek, Allen will end the season with 4600+ total yards 45 TDs and possibly his 4th straight division title.

 

 Are we that spoiled, or just used to this type of prolific production from Allen that we fail to recognize the absurdity of these numbers ?

[BrainwashedBillsFan]

Y’all realize that Josh is gonna go nuts these last three games and win the MVP right? 

[ToGoGo]

“Anybody but Allen” 

[Warcodered]

 

🤔

[Warcodered]

They brought up the INT streak but never really brought up this one even though it's significantly longer.

[H2o]

5 hours ago, Warcodered said:

They brought up the INT streak but never really brought up this one even though it's significantly longer.

That's because it doesn't fit the sports media 🤡 narrative. They only talk about things to knock him down. And even if they do try to disguise their intentions by mentioning a positive, it's usually followed by a "but" afterwards. 

[H2o]

Awwww, @Airseven , how we've missed you as of late. 

[Captain Hindsight]

15 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Only for very brief periods. With those two the seriousness of the limitations showed even within the Shanny scheme. That isn't to dispute that he is the best Quarterback hider in the NFL. He totally is. And by a long way. But the fact Purdy has made it last for a year does suggest he is better than Mullens and Beathard.

Purdy is the real deal. He is in the perfect system for him, but he is excellent at running it. I think he is better than Tua, for example. His vision and ability to see what's happening on the field is really impressive. I still think they would have won the SB last year if he hadn't gotten hurt.

[Captain Hindsight]

17 hours ago, Process said:

No QB in NFL history gets praised more for 150 yds/1 TD than Lamar Jackson. 

I like Lamar and think hes a great player, but he is an ok passer. That doesnt mean he is ineffective, but when teams have made him strictly a passer, he has struggled 

 

I feel the same way about Jalen Hurts too 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

My take on this issue is:

 

Real MVPs (mean most to team) are Josh, Lamar and Jalen

 

If you can't have those guy's just because (Who I'd pick since it's mostly about numbers and being on a good team now)  Christian, Tyreke

 

Who the media is pushing because they love a good manufactured story: Purdy