**2023 degenerative gamblers thread **

[BillsShredder83]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

They were upset by unranked Texas A&M

 

It wasn't a great football team but they're an Sec program

Didn't an abysmal program take them to the wire last or 2 years ago?  It was like an App State level team lol I think you're right they were upset by an SEC team, but they needed a FG as time expired to pull it out

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Didn't an abysmal program take them to the wire last or 2 years ago?  It was like an App State level team lol I think you're right they were upset by an SEC team, but they needed a FG as time expired to pull it out

UT took them to the wire last year with there back up QB

 

Won on a field goal as time expired 

[bobobonators]

https://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

https://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/

I know the number by heart thank you

[BBFL]

What’s your choice of betting platform? I’m back and forth between FanDuel and DraftKings
 

I don’t know what Draft Kings did but I usually roll with a 4 game parlay and most of the stacked odds don’t payout like they used to. Also they way they’ve formatted the main screen for bets, not a fan. 

[Buffalo716]

40 minutes ago, BBFL said:

What’s your choice of betting platform? I’m back and forth between FanDuel and DraftKings
 

I don’t know what Draft Kings did but I usually roll with a 4 game parlay and most of the stacked odds don’t payout like they used to. Also they way they’ve formatted the main screen for bets, not a fan. 

I've used everything over 25 years 

 

Bodawg, draft kings, mybookie, a personal bookie and the casino 

 

Now a days the casino is the easiest for me ...but i can't do NY college teams at the casino

 

So mybookie or draft kings is my online today ... And I can't do NY college teams with draft kings 

Edited August 14, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Da webster guy]

4 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Gambling on football is as old as the sport

 

I'm sure plenty of people have been gambling on football for 20 years here... That's why it's fun to start a thread where people share their picks

 

Where did I ever say I was an expert? I said I'm only going to share things that I am spending money on myself that I consider a lock 

 

And I have friends who are legitimate sharps

You don't have to defend yourself to anyone, this is a great thread idea.   I will probably lurk and not offer too much but I have a friend who digs into college as deep as anyone and has had some very big years.

 

One thing I've heard from the ultra experienced gamblers is that if you want to bet on the favorite you should bet early.

 

Line movement can be erratic, but generally, favorites are more popular with the public, and so the line tends to move against them after the betting line is opened.

This new world of legalized online betting has created a ton of casual bettors who generally don’t consider odds or the point spread too strongly. They simply bet on the favorite as soon as the line is released. Over time, the line tends to move against the favorite, making them a less attractive bet.

 

Conversely, if you like the road underdog it is often worth waiting a few days after the line is released. Generally, the public bets on favorites which leads to line movement in favor of the underdog. 

 

One more technique to use if you know which side you like (Bills): decide on a price that works for you and wait to see if the line moves onto your price. If it doesn’t, don’t bet.

 

Here's another thought:

 

Opening line in the morning:

Bills – 6 (-110)

Fins+6 (-110)

Line in the evening:

Bills-9 (-110)

Fins +9 (-110)

This line movement indicates that a lot of money has been placed on the Bills in a short space of time. Although movement does tend to go against the favorite, it is often quite gradual.

 

A big jump like this suggests that the smartest bettors with the most money (or sharps) think that the original line offered by the sportsbook was very good value.

If you spot a situation like this, a good move will be to quickly check other sportsbooks to see if the Bills are available anywhere else at -6. Since sportsbooks react to the bets they receive themselves (as opposed to bets received by other sportsbooks) lines move at different speeds in different books.  We've seen some pretty big discrepancies just between draft kings, caesars, fan duel etc

 

Dramatic movement over a short period of time indicates big money from clued-in bettors. Gradual movement in one direction indicates public perception and of course sometimes line movement is orchestrated by sportsbooks to entice people to bet on a specific side of the bet because they're too heavily imbalanced.

 

Last thought:  If you and someone you trust completely disagree on a bet but are both going to bet it anyway, leave the sportsbooks out of it and just bet each other then whip out the venmo at the end of the game and square up.   No sense letting the fat cats take 10% for doing nothing.

 

Also if you don't think Damar Hamlin isn't winning comeback player of the year you're insane.   The dude was clinically dead and a year later he's out there hammering ball carriers.  Sure Tua had a concussion or two, but for god's sake man our boy came back from the afterlife to win back his starting job.   Bet your grandma's pension on that one and take her to Hawaii when you cash out......

 

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

You don't have to defend yourself to anyone, this is a great thread idea.   I will probably lurk and not offer too much but I have a friend who digs into college as deep as anyone and has had some very big years.

 

One thing I've heard from the ultra experienced gamblers is that if you want to bet on the favorite you should bet early.

 

Line movement can be erratic, but generally, favorites are more popular with the public, and so the line tends to move against them after the betting line is opened.

This new world of legalized online betting has created a ton of casual bettors who generally don’t consider odds or the point spread too strongly. They simply bet on the favorite as soon as the line is released. Over time, the line tends to move against the favorite, making them a less attractive bet.

 

Conversely, if you like the road underdog it is often worth waiting a few days after the line is released. Generally, the public bets on favorites which leads to line movement in favor of the underdog. 

 

One more technique to use if you know which side you like (Bills): decide on a price that works for you and wait to see if the line moves onto your price. If it doesn’t, don’t bet.

 

Here's another thought:

 

Opening line in the morning:

Bills – 6 (-110)

Fins+6 (-110)

Line in the evening:

Bills-9 (-110)

Fins +9 (-110)

This line movement indicates that a lot of money has been placed on the Bills in a short space of time. Although movement does tend to go against the favorite, it is often quite gradual.

 

A big jump like this suggests that the smartest bettors with the most money (or sharps) think that the original line offered by the sportsbook was very good value.

If you spot a situation like this, a good move will be to quickly check other sportsbooks to see if the Bills are available anywhere else at -6. Since sportsbooks react to the bets they receive themselves (as opposed to bets received by other sportsbooks) lines move at different speeds in different books.  We've seen some pretty big discrepancies just between draft kings, caesars, fan duel etc

 

Dramatic movement over a short period of time indicates big money from clued-in bettors. Gradual movement in one direction indicates public perception and of course sometimes line movement is orchestrated by sportsbooks to entice people to bet on a specific side of the bet because they're too heavily imbalanced.

 

Last thought:  If you and someone you trust completely disagree on a bet but are both going to bet it anyway, leave the sportsbooks out of it and just bet each other then whip out the venmo at the end of the game and square up.   No sense letting the fat cats take 10% for doing nothing.

 

Also if you don't think Damar Hamlin isn't winning comeback player of the year you're insane.   The dude was clinically dead and a year later he's out there hammering ball carriers.  Sure Tua had a concussion or two, but for god's sake man our boy came back from the afterlife to win back his starting job.   Bet your grandma's pension on that one and take her to Hawaii when you cash out......

 

What's the line for demar As comeback? I haven't seen a line for him anywhere

 

My personal bookie who I've used who may or may not be mob connected... Not sure 😁... Will give me a line if I ask but I killed him on college basketball 2 years ago so he hardly answers lol

Edited August 14, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Captain Hindsight]

11 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Did you see the post above yours where the guy placed a million dollars on the chargers money line to beat the jaguars

 

Up 27 nothing

 

A million dollars to win 11 Grand..  and he lost

 

But I want to stick to against the spread and over under with this thread with my picks

What’s funny is I actually bet 10 bucks on the jags at halftime. I realized they were playing the chargers and the chargers tend to loss in spectacular fashion 

[ArdmoreRyno]

14 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I know @ArdmoreRyno use to run a handicapping website

 

Seriously let's figure out the two Bills drive sharps... Versus the marks

 

And let's have fun doing it

 

Keep your own record against the spread in this thread

 

I'd love to take part this year. I've actually have been digging through old computers, pulling old photos and documents off them to save. I have a bunch of formula sheets I used back in the day to come up with my old spreads... would be interesting to see if they still apply today. Figure they would.

[Bill from NYC]

15 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I know @ArdmoreRyno use to run a handicapping website

 

Seriously let's figure out the two Bills drive sharps... Versus the marks

 

And let's have fun doing it

 

Keep your own record against the spread in this thread

I think it is a great idea. Picking only the Bills game and over/under in a thread is far more convenient and less time consuming than picking the entire board. 

 

Is this what is going to happen?

[MasterStrategist]

On 8/13/2023 at 2:57 AM, Buffalo716 said:

The opening line I saw was - 14.5 buffalo... Unless it's a glitch from last seasons game for some reason ... It says August of 23... It seems so high it has to be a glitch 

 

I will scratch that for now 

FanDuel has Buffalo +2.5 and moneyline (Bills) at +115.

 

I like the Steelers QB, DL, and secondary depth.  They've been a solid team in recent preseason games, expect their starters to play most of 1st quarter.

 

If I were to wager, I'd still go Bills moneyline (I don't believe in preseason spreads).  Not as confident as Colts game, but still like that action at +115.  I'm not a fan of their OL, especially 2nd/3rd team compared to our DL depth.  That would likely be the difference again this week

[Buffalo716]

9 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

I think it is a great idea. Picking only the Bills game and over/under in a thread is far more convenient and less time consuming than picking the entire board. 

 

Is this what is going to happen?

You can do whatever you like Bill

 

I'm not going to be picking the entire board weekly... I'm going to pick a couple college games... 2-3

 

Than 1-2 NFL games ... I'm going to look for the best spreads and over unders I can find 

 

I'll keep track of my record ATS to make it fun

 

If you want to do only buffalo bills games... Go for it...and keep track !

[4merper4mer]

Given the name of this thread I’m wondering who in here will be the first to bet the Ravens in a money line preseason game and put the kiss of death o them.

[C.Biscuit97]

Thank for starting this. Not the biggest college football fan (enjoy it but more of a nfl guy), I like Oregon State over wins along with Texas Tech.

On 8/13/2023 at 6:59 PM, Buffalo716 said:

Someone placed 75k on Alabama vs MTSU

 

-25000 money line 

 

$75,000 to win 300

 

But hey... It's 300 bucks

 

What does the $75k the other way get you?

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Thank for starting this. Not the biggest college football fan (enjoy it but more of a nfl guy), I like Oregon State over wins along with Texas Tech.

What does the $75k the other way get you?

1.875 trillion dollars 

[stuvian]

I've already been knocked out of my NFL survivor pool

[BillsShredder83]

On 8/14/2023 at 8:28 AM, ArdmoreRyno said:

 

I'd love to take part this year. I've actually have been digging through old computers, pulling old photos and documents off them to save. I have a bunch of formula sheets I used back in the day to come up with my old spreads... would be interesting to see if they still apply today. Figure they would.

please do, would be cool to follow along 

[BillsShredder83]

Kinda dig Detroit Season Opener at +240.  High offense scoring.  Early season when games can be a lil weird. Gunna wait till closer to gametime when those odds would payout better. KC has also "struggled' early the last few years a bit

[BillsShredder83]

I wish this didnt get moved to Off the Wall!

Whos everybody have for college this weekend?

[Buffalo716]

On 8/25/2023 at 4:19 PM, BillsShredder83 said:

I wish this didnt get moved to Off the Wall!

Whos everybody have for college this weekend?

Well not locked in I am kinda leaning Navy +20.5 

 

I also like under 44.5 Nebraska @ minnesota

 

I have Oklahoma -33.5 vs Arkansas State

 

That's what I'm putting my most money on

 

*** thank God I was getting funny feelings about the ND game and didn't bet it... I was thinking the option could speed up the game and limit possessions 

Edited August 26, 2023 by Buffalo716

[BillsShredder83]

On 8/25/2023 at 4:40 PM, Buffalo716 said:

Well not locked in I am kinda leaning Navy +20.5 

 

I also like under 44.5 Nebraska @ minnesota

 

I have Oklahoma -33.5 vs Arkansas State

 

That's what I'm putting my most money on

 

*** thank God I was getting funny feelings about the ND game and didn't bet it... I was thinking the option could speed up the game and limit possessions 

Lol I got burned on a big ass USC spread because of an onside kick recovery 🙃 it's crazy how good lines are at predicting. Never ceases to amaze

[GoBills808]

On 8/13/2023 at 9:46 AM, GoBills808 said:

definitely fading this thread

 

On 8/13/2023 at 11:33 AM, Beast said:

Take Navy +20.5 at Notre Dame on August 26th.

Navy has been known to play the Irish tough and Navy’s style of offense translates better in an early opening game.

 

ty sir

[BillsPride12]

Just put a $100 on the Over for Bills wins for the season at 10.5

 

I feel pretty safe....was surprised they didn't set the line at 11 or 11.5 to be honest 

[Buffalo716]

46 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Lol I got burned on a big ass USC spread because of an onside kick recovery 🙃 it's crazy how good lines are at predicting. Never ceases to amaze

They are pros 

 

Literally waiting for Saturday to drop it all on the Oklahoma game

 

Trying to start hot with a big win and start the season off right 

[PromoTheRobot]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

They are pros 

 

Literally waiting for Saturday to drop it all on the Oklahoma game

 

Trying to start hot with a big win and start the season off right 

 

I took UB to stay within 28 of Wisconsin.  I also put a tiny wager on the Bulls winning outright. (15:1)

[Buffalo716]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I took UB to stay within 28 of Wisconsin.  I also put a tiny wager on the Bulls winning outright. (15:1)

I think it like 31 now 

[PromoTheRobot]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

I think it like 31 now 

Not on DraftKings

[Beast]

34 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

ty sir

Yeah, I couldn’t have been more wrong. LOL

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Beast said:

Yeah, I couldn’t have been more wrong. LOL

Wait till I get rolling😂😂 I get it wrong like you wouldn't believe

[Buffalo716]

24 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Not on DraftKings

I can't even bet UB in NY : (

[PromoTheRobot]

40 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I can't even bet UB in NY : (

 

Oh right, because you're in-state.

[Breakout Squad]

So I casually put a $45 bet on the Bills to win against the Jets week 1 ML. It’s not a big wager but I’m a small time bettor. Am I crazy for thinking the Bills are going to win?

[BillsShredder83]

10 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

They are pros 

 

Literally waiting for Saturday to drop it all on the Oklahoma game

 

Trying to start hot with a big win and start the season off right 

Why are you waiting for a fav though? Won't it come up the closer it gets?

 

Take the Favs early, and the dogs late?

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Why are you waiting for a fav though? Won't it come up the closer it gets?

 

Take the Favs early, and the dogs late?

I been busy and wanna place it at the casino 

 

Shoulda got it at 32.5 , now 35 or whatever but I still like 

 

I didn't wanna use Draft kings or anything for this ... I wanna cash out at the casino with enough cash under the limit for signing ... So 999 bucks 

 

Ill just make 2 tickets at different machines and cash them separately 

[Process]

9 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I been busy and wanna place it at the casino 

 

Shoulda got it at 32.5 , now 35 or whatever but I still like 

 

I didn't wanna use Draft kings or anything for this ... I wanna cash out at the casino with enough cash under the limit for signing ... So 999 bucks 

 

Ill just make 2 tickets at different machines and cash them separately 

You are not required to sign anything for transactions over $1k. Just need to show your players card, it's not a big deal. 

[BillsShredder83]

@Buffalo716 hope u got your minn/nebraska in early......  its @ 42.5 line now..... ouch!

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, Process said:

You are not required to sign anything for transactions over $1k. Just need to show your players card, it's not a big deal. 

Pretty sure you get a W-2G to fill out 

 

Casino winnings over a certain amount are taxed by New York State and they will fill out the form and give it to you

Edited August 31, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Metal Man]

On 8/19/2023 at 4:14 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Thank for starting this. Not the biggest college football fan (enjoy it but more of a nfl guy), I like Oregon State over wins along with Texas Tech.

What does the $75k the other way get you?

 

Assuming the odds are +25000 the other way it would be $18,750,000.

 

For anyone that is interested in the math on the odds lines they work like this.

 

If the odds are + the formula for what you would win is x/100 * $Bet

so: 25000 / 100 * $75,000 = $18,750,000

 

If the odds are - the formula for calculating winnings is 100/x * $Bet

so: 100 / 25000 * $75,000 = $300

 

Just to assist anyone still on the fence about becoming a part of the degenerate gamblers club with the rest of us. 😀😈

 

 

[T&C]

30 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Pretty sure you get a W-2G to fill out 

 

Casino winnings over a certain amount are taxed by New York State and they will fill out the form and give it to you

I thought that now it's anything over $600.00... betting, lottery, ebay, etc. 

Edited August 31, 2023 by T&C