The Bills First Round Selection (#27) will be offense. And from among these five players.

[Chaos]

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

Edited April 22, 2023 by Chaos

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I disagree with 3 TE being a possibility at #27.

 

#2 TE is a need, but OL and LB should be addressed first. There is a ton of depth at TE in this draft, so we should get the best OT while there are some left and wait until the 3rd for a guy like Tucker Kraft or Luke Schoonmaker.

[Chaos]

Just now, Allen2Diggs said:

I disagree with 3 TE being a possibility at #27

You are free to disagree. It is a partially free country. 

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Baring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

It they go offense in the first, this is a plausible list. I'd be surprised if Kincaid or Wright are there at 27. Mayer, maybe. I'd rather take Washington, though Mayer is the more complete player right now. Not sure what to make of Flowers -- super skilled, but tiny with midget arms. He probably still goes before the Bills' pick.

[Chaos]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

Not sure what to make of Flowers -- super skilled, but tiny with midget arms

Bills don't seem troubled by taking players without prototype measurements.  I am not saying I would pick Flowers.  This is what I think the Bills will do though. 

[NeverOutNick]

11 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

I like your premise but it’s flawed because Flowers and Wright would be ahead of both Mayer and Kincaid based on talent and a more glaring need. I do like all 5 of those players though and even if I don’t think Washington is worth a top 30 selection, I would be happy with any of those 5 players being our first pick. 
 

but hopefully Flowers and Wright are off the board if one of the TEs are selected 

Edited April 22, 2023 by NeverOutNick

[Dr. Who]

Just now, Chaos said:

Bills don't seem troubled by taking players without prototype measurements.  I am not saying I would pick Flowers.  This is what I think the Bills will do though. 

He's a slot receiver. I can't see him on the outside. I think Addison is more likely what they are looking for, but I'm just guessing.

[NeverOutNick]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

He's a slot receiver. I can't see him on the outside. I think Addison is more likely what they are looking for, but I'm just guessing.

Flowers is 100% not just a slot receiver. Just because he’s small doesn’t make him pigeon holed to the slot. Kid is special and can play anywhere. Great vertical and inside/out game. Is Tyreek Hill just a slot? Was Antonio Brown? Those dude are the same height as Zay

[Warriorspikes51]

Washington could literally have 10 + TDs as a rookie if used in the Red Zone.

he’d also bring some unpredictability as he can be an extra OT on runs or a real threat in pass game

Edited April 22, 2023 by Warriorspikes51

[sonyab1974]

What is the schedule for the draft when they show the Bills?

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, NeverOutNick said:

Flowers is 100% not just a slot receiver. Just because he’s small doesn’t make him pigeon holed to the slot. Kid is special and can play anywhere. Great vertical and inside/out game. Is Tyreek Hill just a slot? Was Antonio Brown? Those dude are the same height as Zay

Guess we'll see. He did play outside in college, but numerous draft profiles question whether he'll be able to do so at the pro level. His small arms give him a smaller catch radius and he's had a problem with drops. I personally would prefer a larger receiver, but there's no doubt he's talented.

[LABILLBACKER]

I absolutely love Darnell Wright and want him as our long term RT.  But if by some miracle JSN, Flowers or Kincaid are there then I'll pray Beane has his scouts on the right page.  

[TheBeaneBandit]

24 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

I like your premise but it’s flawed because Flowers and Wright would be ahead of both Mayer and Kincaid based on talent and a more glaring need. I do like all 5 of those players though and even if I don’t think Washington is worth a top 30 selection, I would be happy with any of those 5 players being our first pick. 
 

but hopefully Flowers and Wright are off the board if one of the TEs are selected 

I think Wright and Flowers aren't even first rounders in most years. The three TEs are all legit, although with Washington it is more with the upside.

[Maynard]

5 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I absolutely love Darnell Wright and want him as our long term RT.  But if by some miracle JSN, Flowers or Kincaid are there then I'll pray Beane has his scouts on the right page.  

I think Wright will be long gone. I’ve read Chicago has a real thing for him. 

[GunnerBill]

The closer we get the more I feel like it will be Addison. Either at #27 or with a small trade up to snag him. 

[NeverOutNick]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

The closer we get the more I feel like it will be Addison. Either at #27 or with a small trade up to snag him. 

As long as small is just a couple spots and no more than a 4th round pick that’s fine. Still need OL help day 2

[Beck Water]

29 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

He's a slot receiver. I can't see him on the outside. I think Addison is more likely what they are looking for, but I'm just guessing.

 

I am not lobbying for Flowers.  But FWIW, Greg Cosell, who has watched a minute of NFL film, profiled Zay Flowers as a WR he saw as being able to play at "all 3 levels" in the NFL.

 

To the OP, I'll point out that the same argument people make against drafting ILB in the first, applies to some extent to TE. 

 

The top 10 WR in the league have $20-$30M/yr AAV contracts.

The top 2 TE in the league have contracts over $15M AAV, Kelce is $14.3M, then it tails off down to $10 Even Engram at $11M

 

By the way of the top 10 salary TE in AAV, only two (Njoku and Engram) were drafted in the 1st round.

[TheBeaneBandit]

At least for his first year and beyond unless he gets very serious about strength training.....two words for Wright: Big Softie.

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

As long as small is just a couple spots and no more than a 4th round pick that’s fine. Still need OL help day 2

 

We can get contribution from a 4th rounder, with a little luck. I hope the draft falls to us and we can sit put… or find a partner to move back a little. One thing we know for sure is Beane is not afraid to move around. 

[RiotAct]

31 minutes ago, sonyab1974 said:

What is the schedule for the draft when they show the Bills?

we’ll probably be drafting around 10:30 - 11 PM I’d imagine?  Assuming we stay put at 27, that is

[Chaos]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

To the OP, I'll point out that the same argument people make against drafting ILB in the first, applies to some extent to TE. 

 

The top 10 WR in the league have $20-$30M/yr AAV contracts.

Kincaid is more WR than TE.  Kind of like the early good version of Jimmy Graham. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

we’ll probably be drafting around 10:30 - 11 PM I’d imagine?  Assuming we stay put at 27, that is

 

+6 hours. Think of me when you are watching. 

[The Jokeman]

54 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

I disagree with 3 TE being a possibility at #27.

 

#2 TE is a need, but OL and LB should be addressed first. There is a ton of depth at TE in this draft, so we should get the best OT while there are some left and wait until the 3rd for a guy like Tucker Kraft or Luke Schoonmaker.

TE might not be higher need but some of these TEs in Round 1 are better prospects than OL or LB options.

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I am not lobbying for Flowers.  But FWIW, Greg Cosell, who has watched a minute of NFL film, profiled Zay Flowers as a WR he saw as being able to play at "all 3 levels" in the NFL.

 

To the OP, I'll point out that the same argument people make against drafting ILB in the first, applies to some extent to TE. 

 

The top 10 WR in the league have $20-$30M/yr AAV contracts.

The top 2 TE in the league have contracts over $15M AAV, Kelce is $14.3M, then it tails off down to $10 Even Engram at $11M

 

By the way of the top 10 salary TE in AAV, only two (Njoku and Engram) were drafted in the 1st round.

Cosell's opinion is a definite plus in the Zay Flowers' column. I give more credence to what he says than what I read in an anonymous draft profile.

 

The contract value regarding TE and ILB is a valid point. For me, in this draft particularly, I'd like to focus on offense early. Maybe Wright falls to 27 and that is a legitimate pick. If not, I suspect there is a likelihood that OL and WR may not have someone available when the Bills' pick that I would deem worthy of it. I favor Kincaid because I am thinking of him as a weapon in lieu of a WR. Washington is probably too early for 27, but I will not be shocked if he goes late first. I think he is an exceptional blocker and an underrated RZ threat. And I'm an UGA fan, so biased, but I do believe he could be a valuable piece if Dorsey is willing to gameplan that way.

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

10 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

TE might not be higher need but some of these TEs in Round 1 are better prospects than OL or LB options.

You also have to bear in mind that we probably won't run 11 personel very often so we might get more value out of a solid RT than a high end #2 TE

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Cosell's opinion is a definite plus in the Zay Flowers' column. I give more credence to what he says than what I read in an anonymous draft profile.

 

The contract value regarding TE and ILB is a valid point. For me, in this draft particularly, I'd like to focus on offense early. Maybe Wright falls to 27 and that is a legitimate pick. If not, I suspect there is a likelihood that OL and WR may not have someone available when the Bills' pick that I would deem worthy of it. I favor Kincaid because I am thinking of him as a weapon in lieu of a WR. Washington is probably too early for 27, but I will not be shocked if he goes late first. I think he is an exceptional blocker and an underrated RZ threat. And I'm an UGA fan, so biased, but I do believe he could be a valuable piece if Dorsey is willing to gameplan that way.

During the regular season, the Bills were easily the best non-Redzone offense. They punted considerably fewer times than anyone else. The Bills were short of top tier in Red Zone offense (imo mainly mentally deficient OC work). But  the player that moves the dial the most in the red zone, is the player that will have the biggest impact on the offense. 

1 minute ago, Allen2Diggs said:

You also have to bear in mind that we probably won't run 11 personel very often so we might get more value out of a solid RT than a high end #2 TE

Do you think there is any playcalling decisions made based on the talent on the roster? 

[Talleywhacker]

Whats with the TE fetish ?

The Bills just locked up Knox with a large contract for several years so it makes no sense to draft a TE #1.

TE's usually take a couple years to adapt to the NFL and the Bills are in win now mode.

A WR#2, a LB or a stud guard or tackle to protect Josh make more sense.

If not, I'd be happy drafting a project LS.😏

[whorlnut]

1 hour ago, Allen2Diggs said:

I disagree with 3 TE being a possibility at #27.

 

#2 TE is a need, but OL and LB should be addressed first. There is a ton of depth at TE in this draft, so we should get the best OT while there are some left and wait until the 3rd for a guy like Tucker Kraft or Luke Schoonmaker.

People need to just stop with LB imo. The fact is…no team in this league is scared if we get a LB or not. In fact…teams will laugh at us saying “same old bills”. Nobody cares. That isn’t what will get us over the hump. This is an offensive league and Beane did a great job bringing in Klein to fill that role. The defense is good enough now. Time to draft offense and do right by Allen and the O. 

[MasterStrategist]

If they like Breese or Kancey, that could be a semi-surprise selection.  We have zero Dts under contract after this year.

 

We need to look for a 1-tech type player, but the talent at 3-tech might be tough to pass up in Round 1.

 

Many want Ed out the door, and Settle underperformed LY.  Phillips is situational at best, injury risk waiting to happen.  

 

It's just a matter of when, not if, we draft a DT.  Beane has stated, like many have noted here, that aren't many players graded as 1st rounders.  Fewer than LY, when we moved up for Elam (who they said was their last 1st rounder graded).

 

I don't think we move up, better chance of moving back if an offer presents itself.  I'm starting to envision a scenario we go OL/DT or DT/OL, with our 1st two picks.  Then target a Jayden Reed type in the 3rd

[whorlnut]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

He's a slot receiver. I can't see him on the outside. I think Addison is more likely what they are looking for, but I'm just guessing.

I also think they love Addison. They have been all over him going back to visits to USC to watch him play. He’s the guy that can be the slot and move to the outside later on. I think they would be ok with flowers too. 

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

Why is it okay, as far as "value", to draft a TE in the first round but not a RB?? 

[whorlnut]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

The closer we get the more I feel like it will be Addison. Either at #27 or with a small trade up to snag him. 

This is exactly what I’m feeling. Doesn’t mean it will happen, but there has been a buzz about him that is hard to ignore. 

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

I agree with your list, with the exception of Mayer...he's a good player, but not in the same category as the other two tight ends...you could argue that he was more productive than Washington, but Washington is a unique prospect. 

Edited April 22, 2023 by mannc

[Fan in Chicago]

53 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

+6 hours. Think of me when you are watching. 

Do you get the draft on a channel where you can DVR it? You can then just wake up early, not open and website with draft news and FF through the other crap during the draft broadcast. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Do you get the draft on a channel where you can DVR it? You can then just wake up early, not open and website with draft news and FF through the other crap during the draft broadcast. 

 

I don't want to fast forward. I want to savour every moment. 

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

14 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

People need to just stop with LB imo. The fact is…no team in this league is scared if we get a LB or not. In fact…teams will laugh at us saying “same old bills”. Nobody cares. That isn’t what will get us over the hump. This is an offensive league and Beane did a great job bringing in Klein to fill that role. The defense is good enough now. Time to draft offense and do right by Allen and the O. 

The only lb I would take in the first two rounds is Jack Campbell. I think we can get a guy like Daiyon Henley or Dorian Williams in the later rounds. I think Klein is just a placeholder until the draft.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

*
Discuss? 😁

[whorlnut]

6 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

The only lb I would take in the first two rounds is Jack Campbell. I think we can get a guy like Daiyon Henley or Dorian Williams in the later rounds. I think Klein is just a placeholder until the draft.

Again…no one cares. They just don’t. If McBeanes priority this draft is to replace edmunds with their first resource then it’s a shame. The offense has needed help all season. And I don’t care about all the dumpster divers they got in FA. The offense is still a need. 

[Chaos]

32 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Why is it okay, as far as "value", to draft a TE in the first round but not a RB?? 

Because Travis Kelce showcased that position as the dominant non-QB offensive player in the playoffs last year.

[LEBills]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

I think you are overvaluing the Bills interest in TE. They seem to be targeting more the 2-4th round guys with who they have interviewed and worked out. Kincaid, though “cleared,” also had a back fracture which I think is going to drop him further than people expect.

 

I think it would go more like Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Darnell Wright, Joe Tippman, Matthew Bergeron at 27 if they HAD to go offense at 27. Based on the pre draft visits/workouts we are aware of.