27 may be obvious even if unexpected

[4merper4mer]

This year’s draft it reputed to be weak in general.  The Bills, like every other team, have holes to fill but impact at 27 seems unlikely  in 2023.  There truly is only one choice to gain real value if he falls to 27:

 

Hendon Hooker.

 

QBs have value 10x any other position.  Will the value we get from Hooker arrive in 2023?  Maybe, maybe not.

 

The top option would be to not actually select Hooker but trade the pick to move down a little and get additional picks in 2024 from which we might derive value.

 

Next choice is to play a game of chicken with teams that think they can trade up in the 28-31 range and get him.  Remember Miami cheated so only 31 first rounders.  If they won’t trade with us, simply draft Hooker and hold him hostage for a few hours or up to a year.

 

The least likely but still realistic option is to draft Hooker and entertain the possibility of developing him and getting a King’s ransom for Allen in 2-3 years.  I don’t love this as I am a big fan of Josh, but it’s a business.

 

If Hooker is there at 27 our pick simply has to involve him via trade, extortion or true selection.  There is no way to get that amount of value from anyone else.  Crappy receivers, decent receivers that may still be there in the 2nd, running back, OL who may end up being matched by another guy in the 3rd?  Absolutely no way.  GAIN value for the team.

 

If Hooker is gone, which he probably will be, then we can be pedestrian.  If not, be bold.

[Doc]

In.

[Aussie Joe]

Obvious…

 

Right..

[Johnnyp566]

Hooker is not going in the first round. This is a product of the media only wanting to focus on 1 position in terms of draft coverage and the more they have early then the more talking points they have. Draft coverage is extremely difficult these days because it’s so quarterback centric. 

[4merper4mer]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

Obvious…

 

Right..

It is obvious.  Get value.  Depending on which teams have already picked a QB, there will still be several teams interested in Hooker.  In addition to gaining capital, we may be able to prevent him going to NE or another AFC team.

[LyndonvilleBill]

Day Drinkin can be a lot of fun.😁

[Success]

I believe in the multiverse, and that every possibility exists in some alternate universe.  But I don't think there is a universe where this is happening.

 

[4merper4mer]

Just now, Johnnyp566 said:

Hooker is not going in the first round. This is a product of the media only wanting to focus on 1 position in terms of draft coverage and the more they have early then the more talking points they have. Draft coverage is extremely difficult these days because it’s so quarterback centric. 

Lol.  If you think there isn’t first round interest in Hooker you might why to try to catch that turnip truck you fell off.

Just now, Success said:

I believe in the multiverse, and that every possibility exists in some alternate universe.  But I don't think there is a universe where this is happening.

 

I’ll be here to accept your apologies if Hooker doesn’t go in the top 26.

[90sBills]

Sure of course. Everyone can see Allen has hit his peak and will decline. Let’s look for his replacement now. 🙄

[4merper4mer]

3 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Sure of course. Everyone can see Allen has hit his peak and will decline. Let’s look for his replacement now. 🙄

Did you read it? I made it clear that this option is a distant third choice.

[90sBills]

4 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Did you read it? I made it clear that this option is a distant third choice.

Any choice that includes drafting a qb in the first round while having Allen in his prime deserves eyerolls. 

[Dr. Who]

Lot of 3D Chess going on in your calculations. It is initially so implausible, folks are just going to ridicule.

I think I follow your rationale. While superficially outrageous, it's not unjustifiable if you rate Hooker that high.

I believe that there are questions about him because the Tennessee offense was so driven by the quick strike and getting the ball out rapidly

that no one truly knows how he would process reading NFL defenses. And he's an older player -- so I'm not sure your valuation is correct.

You are gambling that it is shared enough by other NFL teams to make the pick a commodity that will pay off.

 

I certainly do not see Josh Allen traded in 3 years because Hendon Hooker has displayed sufficient brilliance to make that an equitable decision.

 

 

4 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Any choice that includes drafting a qb in the first round while having Allen in his prime deserves eyerolls. 

OP reminds me a bit of Flannery O'Connor. Very deadpan sense of humor, so the whole thing might be an elaborate hoax;

then again, might be serious.

[4merper4mer]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Lot of 3D Chess going on in your calculations. It is initially so implausible, folks are just going to ridicule.

I think I follow your rationale. While superficially outrageous, it's not unjustifiable if you rate Hooker that high.

I believe that there are questions about him because the Tennessee offense was so driven by the quick strike and getting the ball out rapidly

that no one truly knows how he would process reading NFL defenses. And he's an older player -- so I'm not sure your valuation is correct.

You are gambling that it is shared enough by other NFL teams to make the pick a commodity that will pay off.

 

I certainly do not see Josh Allen traded in 3 years because Hendon Hooker has displayed sufficient brilliance to make that an equitable decision.

 

 

After the first round the following pre 27 teams could realistically be in a position where they would like to draft and develop Hooker and have the year 5 option:

 

Cardinals

Colts

Seahawks

Lions

Raiders

Titans…not a top candidate IMO

Jets

Pats*

Commaders

Bucs

Ravens…..who I think will take Hooker at 22 btw

Vikes…who could also take him at 23

 

 

Two of those disappear based on where Richardson and Levis go.  There are still a lot.  Add to that the Saints going at pick 29.  There is a lot to work with here and way too much attainable value to throw away.  My personal favorite trade would be to Tampa for pick 50, let’s say a 5th and next year’s 1.  Tampa wants to jump the Saints and the teams above them in round 2….there’s your trigger.  We can still get a reasonable MLB at 50  and if we’re lucky Rashee Rice at 59.

[Doc]

The Packers approve of this.

[4merper4mer]

21 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Any choice that includes drafting a qb in the first round while having Allen in his prime deserves eyerolls. 

Really.  Any choice?  Even if you knew you could instantly flip the player and make your team better?  Shirley.

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

The Packers approve of this.

In no way is this the same.  The Pack miscalculated Rodgers desire and longevity a bit and were only giving themselves option 3 from my original post.  They never even entertained my first two options.

Edited April 8, 2023 by 4merper4mer

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

After the first round the following pre 27 teams could realistically be in a position where they would like to draft and develop Hooker and have the year 5 option:

 

Cardinals

Colts

Seahawks

Lions

Raiders

Titans…not a top candidate IMO

Jets

Pats*

Commaders

Bucs

Ravens…..who I think will take Hooker at 22 btw

Vikes…who could also take him at 23

 

 

Two of those disappear based on where Richardson and Levis go.  There are still a lot.  Add to that the Saints going at pick 29.  There is a lot to work with here and way too much attainable value to throw away.  My personal favorite trade would be to Tampa for pick 50, let’s say a 5th and next year’s 1.  Tampa wants to jump the Saints and the teams above them in round 2….there’s your trigger.  We can still get a reasonable MLB at 50  and if we’re lucky Rashee Rice at 59.

Yes, possible with the Ravens and Vikes. Lot of talking heads with agendas are going to blow their stacks if Baltimore takes him.

Your argument is interesting and outside the box. I don't think many GMs have the confidence to make that assessment and gamble on a pay off.

I am one of those who thinks the value of MLB is somewhat overrated. I believe there is a chance the Bills are serious when they say Edmunds' replacement is already on the roster. If you made that trade as Bills' GM for the Tampa scenario, I'd rather try and get Darnell Washington at 50 if he is still on the board and someone like Matthew Bergeron at 59. Both moves would solidify the blocking and Washington allows for incorporating 12 personnel into the offense if Dorsey is up to the task.

 

But all this is rather academic, because I can't see Beane making the move.

[BillsFan130]

Can’t worry about 3-4 years down the road when you got a Super Bowl window.

 

Pick the best player 

[MrEpsYtown]

Did you just watch Kevin Costner’s Draft Day?

Also, I like Hooker. But he’s 25 and hurt with an ACL. This year is his redshirt injury year. So he will maybe be a 26 year old rookie in 2024, coming off a significant injury. People don’t trade future value for guys like that. 

Edited April 8, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[The Wiz]

3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Did you just watch Kevin Costner’s Draft Day?

Funny enough, I did last night 😆.

[Augie]

45 minutes ago, Success said:

I believe in the multiverse, and that every possibility exists in some alternate universe.  But I don't think there is a universe where this is happening.

 

 

Shouldn’t we report this to someone? I mean, that’s kinda messed up! 

[Virgil]

If he was really worth that much trade value, then why wouldn’t anyone trade up in front us and take him?

 

I also can’t imagine the Bills throwing away a pick instead of bringing in someone who can contribute this year.  
 

[SoCal Deek]

As my mother always said: If one’s available…take the hooker every time. 

[MJS]

Have a friend read your post before you hit "send" next time. It will save you some grief.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

There is nothing obvious with this team since Marrone left.

[4merper4mer]

12 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Can’t worry about 3-4 years down the road when you got a Super Bowl window.

 

Pick the best player 

Did you read it?

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Did you just watch Kevin Costner’s Draft Day?

Also, I like Hooker. But he’s 25 and hurt with an ACL. This year is his redshirt injury year. So he will maybe be a 26 year old rookie in 2024. People don’t trade future value for guys like that. 

 

 

Yeah something tells me the OP doesn't know the dude is already mid career-age.   

 

I am all for taking the best QB available in round 1 every year...........long term success will favor an organization that is ultra-QB-centric like that.    The assumption is that 1st round picks mostly hit but the reality is that only about half even get their 5th year option picked up and even less make big impacts.   They are lottery tickets and QB's are the only true jackpots the way the game is played nowadays.

 

But Hooker specifically is a really shaky,  Brandon-Weeden-esque prospect, IMO.

[BillsFan130]

4 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Did you read it?

I just fully did now.

 

I do agree they should try to trade back if the value isn’t there.

 

However, I would respectfully disagree selecting him as I just don’t think it would make much sense

[4merper4mer]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah something tells me the OP doesn't know the dude is already mid career-age.   

 

I am all for taking the best QB available in round 1 every year...........long term success will favor an organization that is ultra-QB-centric like that.    The assumption is that 1st round picks mostly hit but the reality is that only about half even get their 5th year option picked up and even less make big impacts.   They are lottery tickets and QB's are the only true jackpots the way the game is played nowadays.

 

But Hooker specifically is a really shaky,  Brandon-Weeden-esque prospect, IMO.

Two post 27 teams need to like him in order for Buffalo to add value.  If you’ve seen him play I think you’d agree that 2 or more of the teams I listed probably like him to an extent where they would give up some value if he is there at 27…..which he might not be.  Our alternative is a likely worthless WR bust like Addison, a meh LB or picking a good player like Rice way above projected slot.  Worth the acknowledged risk IMO.

[somnus00]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

Lol.  If you think there isn’t first round interest in Hooker you might why to try to catch that turnip truck you fell off.

I’ll be here to accept your apologies if Hooker doesn’t go in the top 26.

Mason Rudolph was a first rounder. Hooker is a better prospect. Getting that 5th year option is incredibly valuable with QBs given the cost of their second contracts. 

[4merper4mer]

1 minute ago, somnus00 said:

Mason Rudolph was a first rounder. Hooker is a better prospect. Getting that 5th year option is incredibly valuable with QBs given the cost of their second contracts. 

I think Rudolph went in the second but your point holds.

[somnus00]

2 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

I think Rudolph went in the second but your point holds.

Thank you, I was way off. Not sure why I could've sworn he went in the first. 

[MrEpsYtown]

5 minutes ago, somnus00 said:

Mason Rudolph was a first rounder. Hooker is a better prospect. Getting that 5th year option is incredibly valuable with QBs given the cost of their second contracts. 

 

3 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

I think Rudolph went in the second but your point holds.

Rudolph went in the third, did nothing, and now is a free agent who nobody wants. 

[90sBills]

54 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Really.  Any choice?  Even if you knew you could instantly flip the player and make your team better?  Shirley.

In no way is this the same.  The Pack miscalculated Rodgers desire and longevity a bit and were only giving themselves option 3 from my original post.  They never even entertained my first two options.

If he’s that much in demand that ‘you knew you could instantly flip the player and make your team better’ wouldn’t it make more sense to trade that pick to those teams that want him? It would lessen your risk of wasting a pick if the ‘demand’ never materialized. Just spitballing down your rabbit hole. 

[4merper4mer]

3 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

If he’s that much in demand that ‘you knew you could instantly flip the player and make your team better’ wouldn’t it make more sense to trade that pick to those teams that want him? It would lessen your risk of wasting a pick if the ‘demand’ never materialized. Just spitballing down your rabbit hole. 

Read the original post.

6 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Rudolph went in the third, did nothing, and now is a free agent who nobody wants. 

In an unexpected turn of events it has been revealed that Hooker and Rudolph are, in fact, two different people.

[90sBills]

16 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Read the original post.

In an unexpected turn of events it has been revealed that Hooker and Rudolph are, in fact, two different people.

I did read your original post. That’s why I commented that making the actual pick is not strategically smart. Trading down is fine if you can gain from it. But to actually assume the risk isn’t smart.

 

Edit: But this is the offseason so just chatting football is entertaining!

Edited April 8, 2023 by 90sBills

[Draconator]

1 hour ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Day Drinkin can be a lot of fun.😁

[Yantha]

Excuse me sir, but I believe you meant to post this in the Bills-related unpopular opinion thread.

 

 

QB in round 1 would be bold yes, but also ill advised to say the least.  Josh Allen will be 40 years old before he retires a Bill.

[Simon Says]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

This year’s draft it reputed to be weak in general.  The Bills, like every other team, have holes to fill but impact at 27 seems unlikely  in 2023.  There truly is only one choice to gain real value if he falls to 27:

 

Hendon Hooker.

 

QBs have value 10x any other position.  Will the value we get from Hooker arrive in 2023?  Maybe, maybe not.

 

The top option would be to not actually select Hooker but trade the pick to move down a little and get additional picks in 2024 from which we might derive value.

 

Next choice is to play a game of chicken with teams that think they can trade up in the 28-31 range and get him.  Remember Miami cheated so only 31 first rounders.  If they won’t trade with us, simply draft Hooker and hold him hostage for a few hours or up to a year.

 

The least likely but still realistic option is to draft Hooker and entertain the possibility of developing him and getting a King’s ransom for Allen in 2-3 years.  I don’t love this as I am a big fan of Josh, but it’s a business.

 

If Hooker is there at 27 our pick simply has to involve him via trade, extortion or true selection.  There is no way to get that amount of value from anyone else.  Crappy receivers, decent receivers that may still be there in the 2nd, running back, OL who may end up being matched by another guy in the 3rd?  Absolutely no way.  GAIN value for the team.

 

If Hooker is gone, which he probably will be, then we can be pedestrian.  If not, be bold.

DRAFTING Hooper would be insane and risky. TRADING the pick to a team that wants a QB makes sense. Beane will absolutely not waste this pick. 

[somnus00]

28 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Rudolph went in the third, did nothing, and now is a free agent who nobody wants. 

You are correct. I wasn't advocating for this draft idea. I think it's a horrible concept given the teams current holes. I was just saying that it's easy to see Hooker going in the first. That's all. This team needs contributors now. Not a luxury QB pick.

[LyndonvilleBill]

8 minutes ago, Draconator said:

AMEN!!