Down Years Will Come. When You Have an Elite QB, Even Down Years Aren't So Bad.

[The Frankish Reich]

We're not exactly sure where the 2023 Bills will be in the competition cycle. It kind of looks like a retooling (certainly not rebuilding) year. Maybe it will work and we'll easily win the division again and make a playoff run. But at some time - as it does for every team other than that one whose name must not be spoken - there will be down years. Excepting that one exception, the question is this: When you have an elite (on a HOF track) QB, what do "down years" look like? Answer: Not so bad at all, and certainly not so long.

 

Examples: current (or recently retired) QBs who have been/are on a HOF trajectory through a 10 year career:

 

1. Aaron Rodgers. Since taking over as starter and going 6-10, his record as a starter was under .500 just once - a 6-9-1 in 2018. And then he and the Pack immediately rebounded to 3 consecutive 13-3 records until going 8-9 last year. In short, his team (with him at QB) had ONE down year over the course of 13 seasons. Not bad.

 

2. Drew Brees. Yes, I'll even include the Chargers years. After an 8-8 rookie season and a terrible 2-9 the following year, he put up the following seasons for the Chargers and then the Saints:

 

11-4

9-7, 9-7

10-6 (first Saints year), 7-9, 8-8, 13-2, 11-5, 13-3, 7-9, 7-8, 7-9, 11-5, 13-2, 8-3, 9-3

 

One mediocre two-year streak with the Saints, and then another mediocre 3 year streak. No horrible seasons among them; just mediocre retooling years. And 8 seriously winning seasons in the rest of his Saints career.

 

3. Peyton Manning. Terrible 3-13 rookie year. Then one 6-10 season in his third year, but other than that never worse than 10-6 in his Colts career. Then a season on the IL, then a Broncos career of 13-3, 13-3, 12-4, 7-2 (yeah, that one goes to the defense). So ... basically the teams he QB'd had ONE bad season out of 16 following his rookie year.

 

4. Russell Wilson. Yeah, hindsight is 20/20. But as he went into his 10th season he was clearly on the HOF trajectory. Started out 11-5 as a rookie, then his worst season through his age 31 season was a 9-7. Then 6-8 in his last Seattle season, and the horrid 4-11 as a Bronco. But still: a 9 year run in which he always had a winning record, including a 13-3, and two 12-4s.

 

I do think its not too early to say that Josh Allen, barring serious injury or erosion of his skills by taking repeated poundings*, is on the elite/HOF track. And so things may get "bad" in Orchard Park, but they'll likely be Drew Brees/Saints bad (a 2-3 year run of mediocrity), or even better, Aaron Rodgers bad (think 7-10 one year, then a quick rebound). QBs are so overwhelmingly important in today's NFL that if you have consistently exceptional QB play you just don't ever have lengthy downturns or (barring injury) disastrous 5-12 type seasons. I think the Bills are doing the right thing now. It's a little frustrating because we were so close, and now other teams have caught up or even passed us. But I can live with the down seasons the other greats produced. We will be back. And back. And back again.

 

*This is the wild card. I've also been looking at aging patterns of QBs who depend heavily on their running skills. Not "mobile QBs" who scramble to buy time (think Mahomes) and only try to run downhill when a critical game is on the line. I'm thinking of the guys who consistently had 400 or 500 yard rushing seasons. QBs who feature the designed (or option) run as a key feature of their game (and, in turn, their success). Guys like Newton, Wilson, McNair, McNabb, Cunningham. And now guys like Allen and Hurts and Lamar and Murray. And I gotta admit it, I'm a little worried. More on that later.

 

 

Edited March 27, 2023 by The Frankish Reich

[Success]

It's what Burrow said, imo.  Our window is wide open as long as Allen is playing.

 

Not that we won't have "down" years, but that probably means getting a WC spot.  

 

[The Frankish Reich]

44 minutes ago, Success said:

It's what Burrow said, imo.  Our window is wide open as long as Allen is playing.

 

Not that we won't have "down" years, but that probably means getting a WC spot.  

 

Or at least being in the running for a playoff spot right up until the final 2 weeks. Believe me, after two decades of futility, I can live with this kind of drought.

[Kwai San]

A mighty tome was written by @The Frankish Reich which I think is one of the cooler screen names here on this site.  Sadly I agree about the running QB issue even tho JA17's injuries seem to happen whilst in the pocket.  ALL the more reason for massive OL upgrade!!  Good read!

 

Thanks!

Edited March 27, 2023 by Kwai San

[Frostbite]

I dont care if we have 9 wins and get the last wildcard spot, anything can happen with Josh at the helm. A down year will be 7 or less wins with no shot at the playoffs which is hard to do with how Josh can carry the entire team to a win.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

but wait...they can't win a SB without DHopkins.

 

 

 

very rational and good post, OP.

[Einstein]

The entire point is to win a Super Bowl.

 

Anything less is a failure.

 

[Gugny]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

The entire point is to win a Super Bowl.

 

Anything less is a failure.

 

 

I have to agree.

 

For 17 years, a successful Bills season was, "making the playoffs."

This team is beyond that.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

38 minutes ago, Einstein said:

The entire point is to win a Super Bowl.

 

Anything less is a failure.

who's to say they don't get 2?

 

no need to think failure when no one can predict the future. unless maybe you change your name from Albert to Michel.

 

the OP mention several examples (teams/QBs) that had down years in their career, yet still managed to raise the Lombardi.

 

 

[Nextmanup]

48 minutes ago, Einstein said:

The entire point is to win a Super Bowl.

 

Anything less is a failure.

 

Not for a lot of Bills fans, obviously! 

 

This entire thread is about accepting failure and being happy with it...which many Bills fans seem to not mind doing, by nature.  I wonder if it's a WNY thing.

 

I'm a native WNYer and I hate this stuff.

 

Rationalization is a powerful drug in the land of Bills Mafia!

 

 

Edited March 28, 2023 by Nextmanup

[Mister Defense]

This appears to now be a down year coming up, as this past year was. It was clear to most that by the time the playoffs came this year the Bills were playing with a lesser team than the Chiefs and Bengals.  My concern this year is that some other team(s) may also move ahead of the Bills, leaving us with even less hope that this  is 'the year'.

 

The Bills need to address their weak areas: wide receivers, offensive line, linebacker and so far are not coming through. That could change.

 

If I hear they are looking for 'depth' on the offensive line, once again, and so settling for mediocrity, and ditto for the wide receiver position, instead of addressing another fundamental weakness, then I will go into this season not expecting the Bills to compete for a championship.

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Ah yes, let's lower those expectations

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

12 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Ah yes, let's lower those expectations

how is showing teams who had down years yet still won a SB, lowering expectations?

 

 

 

that's balderdash!

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

how is showing teams who had down years yet still won a SB, lowering expectations?

 

 

 

that's balderdash!

This team should be selling out to win it all

 

not half-assing it. just mo

 

[gordong]

Sorry but our window is not open this year without some upgrades still needed.  and the bills are short on money and again next year.. we are entering a mini rebuild like it or not.  the defense is worse than last year. (better in secondary, worse at LB, As it stands,  worse at D-line)  we STILL can't rush the passer.

 Offense we have made a couple good moves but I still dont like our Online for run blocking. and brown would need to take a huge leap. WR we need a #2 because other teams are just going to take Diggs away and are any of the WR they signed good enough to take over a game if needed? I don't see it?  RB we got much better IF he can stay healthy. going to be a really tuff road this year considering the division and conf.

 

Edited March 28, 2023 by gordong

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

3 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

This team should be selling out to win it all

 

not half-assing it. just mo

 

let's see what the end result is before claiming lowering expectations. still have some time before kicking off the season. I can't predict whether my expectations will be raised or lowered until the roster is set at 52 players. even then, I'm willing to, with much anticipation, see how the season plays out.

 

I can however realize bbfs is real and it can create doubt until they actually (with hopes they do) show the baby. 🏆

 

time will tell and I still have a little time left on this earth to watch, enjoy and pull for my team and looking for at least 1 before I die. 

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

OP you are correct. Only one team wins a Championship per year.

However it is interesting that the QBs you referenced in the OP all have Championships.

Bills and Allen don't have one yet. Thus the anxiety of a window closing or not knowing if McDermott and Beane are good enough to win a Championship.  

 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

Not for a lot of Bills fans, obviously! 

 

This entire thread is about accepting failure and being happy with it...which many Bills fans seem to not mind doing, by nature.  I wonder if it's a WNY thing.

 

I'm a native WNYer and I hate this stuff.

 

Rationalization is a powerful drug in the land of Bills Mafia!

 

It's very sad.

[dje85]

This thread is a joke (mainly the replys). We went 13-3 in the regular season last year and outside of middle linebacker we have upgraded or maintained status quo most positions  from last year.  Our biggest issue at the end of the season were the injury bug that took Vonn and Hyde early in the season. We will have them back healthy next season. I don't understand where all the sky is falling is coming from. We are still the team to beat in the East (The Jets haven't proven crap and the jury is still out on if Tua can stay healthy.) Step off the ledge friends. It will be okay.

Edited March 28, 2023 by dje85

[frostbitmic]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

The entire point is to win a Super Bowl.

 

Anything less is a failure.

 

That's why they play the game ... That and fame and bank accounts overflowing with cash.

 

As long as the Bills have Josh Allen they always have a chance, give him what he needs and good things will happen.

[Airseven]

As long as the Bills have Allen, they'll be entertaining to watch - including both his feats of athleticism and mental/physical implosions. Having Allen doesn't mean they'll always be contenders despite the team around him. 

[SoCal Deek]

Great post and comments. Bills fans have been through a great deal, especially those of us who’ve been there from the virtual beginning. BOTH the OPs comments and the many responses are CURRENTLY true. What has many of us on edge is the horrible premonition that what if this is all we get? Years of regular season success rivaling the Kelly years; but this time no Super Bowl…not even an appearance. If true it’ll have been a fun decade for sure but the sheer weight of it all will get heavier and heavier with each passing season. 
Go Bills….please! 

[The Frankish Reich]

4 hours ago, Einstein said:

The entire point is to win a Super Bowl.

 

Anything less is a failure.

 

Well, the entire point is building a consistent winner. That’s what Beane and MCDermott stressed when they were brought in. That’s what they’ve delivered on so far. 
Look, it’s great if you draft Mahomes, wait one year, win Super Bowl. Russell Wilson, Big Ben, Brady: same. Sometimes it requires always being in the hunt, making a good move or two at just the right time, and finishing the job. I promised (threatened? However you see it …) a follow-on post addressing “how long can we expect our Peak Josh Allen window to remain open.” Spoiler alert: a while. 

[Einstein]

8 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Well, the entire point is building a consistent winner. 

 

No it's not.

 

The entire point is winning a Super Bowl. A consistent winner without a Super Bowl is actually a consistent loser.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

51 minutes ago, NUT said:

Bills probably won't win double digit games this season. 3rd in the division, etc.

so there is a reason they call you nut. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

37 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Well, the entire point is building a consistent winner. That’s what Beane and MCDermott stressed when they were brought in. That’s what they’ve delivered on so far. 
Look, it’s great if you draft Mahomes, wait one year, win Super Bowl. Russell Wilson, Big Ben, Brady: same. Sometimes it requires always being in the hunt, making a good move or two at just the right time, and finishing the job. I promised (threatened? However you see it …) a follow-on post addressing “how long can we expect our Peak Josh Allen window to remain open.” Spoiler alert: a while. 

Waiting for that good move or two

 

[BillsVet]

3 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Ah yes, let's lower those expectations

 

This thread could be re-titled: "It's hard to win in the NFL."

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, BillsVet said:

 

This thread could be re-titled: "It's hard to win in the NFL."

 

 

Yes, yes it could.

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

8 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Waiting for that good move or two

 

We’ve been through this many times before, but maybe our best window (to grab a Von or a similar game changer) was in 2021. But that time should come again. More than once. 

4 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

This thread could be re-titled: "It's hard to win in the NFL."

 

 

I meant it to be “it’s really hard not to be a consistent winner when you have a HOF level QB.” Glass half full guy here …

[corta765]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Great post and comments. Bills fans have been through a great deal, especially those of us who’ve been there from the virtual beginning. BOTH the OPs comments and the many responses are CURRENTLY true. What has many of us on edge is the horrible premonition that what if this is all we get? Years of regular season success rivaling the Kelly years; but this time no Super Bowl…not even an appearance. If true it’ll have been a fun decade for sure but the sheer weight of it all will get heavier and heavier with each passing season. 
Go Bills….please! 

 

So it is interesting because there are more teams to compete with now so in theory the playoffs are harder, but there are actually more playoff spots open % wise and the prioritization to the league being so QB friendly helps a ton. You really can't compare times as pre free agency once you built a group you could run for a long time without change, that doesn't happen anymore. Even with a great QB you reload two hopefully three times at a lot of spots and you really have to plan it well. The Kelly Bills ascended in a way you kind of dream of by first regaining footing, then relevance, and finally breaking through in 3-4 short years. By comparison HOF guys like Farve were year 6, Manning year 9, and Brees year 8 for their first ring (and for some only). No path for any QB looks the same, Aaron Rodgers is an all time great and if you reversed his career he would've been a chronic failure until the end. Instead he got a ring but never has broken through since for a variety of reasons. Winning a SB title is beyond tough and if you were to take Brady/Pats out of your equation you would see it is so insanely hard to get there multiple times. I hate the Phillip Rivers comparison because it literally is unique to the Chargers as an org (cough Dan Fouts also) and their unwillingness to pay. There isn't a QB of that caliber otherwise who didn't break through with a SB appearance and the league is even more QB friendly.

 

But as a Buffalo fan I get it full heartedly. We go through drought and finally its like maybe its our time... except when is it our time. The 4 SB losses and not breaking through are forever a weight on the franchise and every single player, especially 17 who wears the weight of the region proudly until a title comes. 2018-21 was ascension for this group, 2022 was the first time mortality hit where you maybe had to ask "well this could've been the year so when" and "will it actually happen". That is legitimately fair and tough to have to consider because the other side of the coin blows that we went through. My father use to joke with me "hopefully in my lifetime" and he is turning 67 this year... so f*ck lol starting to run a little short on time here haha. I have dreamed of watching a SB with him and them winning and what that would be like. I have told people I have no desire to see the Bills in their next SB, I want to be in Buffalo and god willing with my father, wife (who is better bills fan then me), and family that day. I already plan on visiting grandparents grave sites with a shot for them in honor, the shout song, and just a nice moment that they broke through finally. I know that the entire fanbase has similar feelings like this when that day comes of how the celebrate which is part of what's organic and real about being a Bills fan, you cannot replicate the community that exists and how it goes. For me I am just enjoying the ride as much as I can, I have said they have until 2030 and I believe they will get a ring in that time. So allll of those feelings mesh into this tension/pressure that sets around that is unavoidable. But remember you have a demigod at QB who has many good years left and if nothing else as long as he is there you got a shot.

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

So it is interesting because there are more teams to compete with now so in theory the playoffs are harder, but there are actually more playoff spots open % wise and the prioritization to the league being so QB friendly helps a ton. You really can't compare times as pre free agency once you built a group you could run for a long time without change, that doesn't happen anymore. Even with a great QB you reload two hopefully three times at a lot of spots and you really have to plan it well. The Kelly Bills ascended in a way you kind of dream of by first regaining footing, then relevance, and finally breaking through in 3-4 short years. By comparison HOF guys like Farve were year 6, Manning year 9, and Brees year 8 for their first ring (and for some only). No path for any QB looks the same, Aaron Rodgers is an all time great and if you reversed his career he would've been a chronic failure until the end. Instead he got a ring but never has broken through since for a variety of reasons. Winning a SB title is beyond tough and if you were to take Brady/Pats out of your equation you would see it is so insanely hard to get there multiple times. I hate the Phillip Rivers comparison because it literally is unique to the Chargers as an org (cough Dan Fouts also) and their unwillingness to pay. There isn't a QB of that caliber otherwise who didn't break through with a SB appearance and the league is even more QB friendly.

 

But as a Buffalo fan I get it full heartedly. We go through drought and finally its like maybe its our time... except when is it our time. The 4 SB losses and not breaking through are forever a weight on the franchise and every single player, especially 17 who wears the weight of the region proudly until a title comes. 2018-21 was ascension for this group, 2022 was the first time mortality hit where you maybe had to ask "well this could've been the year so when" and "will it actually happen". That is legitimately fair and tough to have to consider because the other side of the coin blows that we went through. My father use to joke with me "hopefully in my lifetime" and he is turning 67 this year... so f*ck lol starting to run a little short on time here haha. I have dreamed of watching a SB with him and them winning and what that would be like. I have told people I have no desire to see the Bills in their next SB, I want to be in Buffalo and god willing with my father, wife (who is better bills fan then me), and family that day. I already plan on visiting grandparents grave sites with a shot for them in honor, the shout song, and just a nice moment that they broke through finally. I know that the entire fanbase has similar feelings like this when that day comes of how the celebrate which is part of what's organic and real about being a Bills fan, you cannot replicate the community that exists and how it goes. For me I am just enjoying the ride as much as I can, I have said they have until 2030 and I believe they will get a ring in that time. So allll of those feelings mesh into this tension/pressure that sets around that is unavoidable. But remember you have a demigod at QB who has many good years left and if nothing else as long as he is there you got a shot.

Now I REALLY feel old. 😉

[BillsVet]

20 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

We’ve been through this many times before, but maybe our best window (to grab a Von or a similar game changer) was in 2021. But that time should come again. More than once. 

I meant it to be “it’s really hard not to be a consistent winner when you have a HOF level QB.” Glass half full guy here …

 

We're not even past the draft or into mini-camp, training camp, or the pre-season.  And already people are trying to get out in front of if there are bad results.  Has nothing to do with "glass half full."  It's mentally setting the basement for results and then we can go back and say...look, I told you so!

 

"One of the problems with being a pessimist is that you can never celebrate when you are proven right." - Thomas Sowell

 

But here, there's no celebration...people just start LAMP's as though they earn royalties off their pessimism. 

 

[Gregg]

Since this thread is about down years. Here is the winning percentage of every NFL franchise.

 

NFL on CBS 🏈 on Twitter: "Where's your squad located? https://t.co/VJFMtLCFE2" / Twitter

[boater]

Ugh. If we suffer a down year, this board would be an unreadable place. There will be constant shrill calls to fire McDermott, fire Beane. Fans will be suicidal.

 

Fans have quickly forgotten how easy it is any year to be sub-500. They quickly became accustomed to winning. A down year will be fugly.

 

Please God: no down years.

[SoCal Deek]

27 minutes ago, Gregg said:

Since this thread is about down years. Here is the winning percentage of every NFL franchise.

 

NFL on CBS 🏈 on Twitter: "Where's your squad located? https://t.co/VJFMtLCFE2" / Twitter

As I’ve always said… 7-9 is our sweet spot! Turns out that Dick Jauron was right all along. Go figure. 

[corta765]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Now I REALLY feel old. 😉

 

Lol my bad

49 minutes ago, boater said:

Ugh. If we suffer a down year, this board would be an unreadable place. There will be constant shrill calls to fire McDermott, fire Beane. Fans will be suicidal.

 

Fans have quickly forgotten how easy it is any year to be sub-500. They quickly became accustomed to winning. A down year will be fugly.

 

Please God: no down years.

 

It wasn't too bad until like 2020 which is conversely when the Bills upswing started so you got back some fans who probably took a break or some new ones joined. I will say the last year or two especially has been a bit frustrating as conversations went from some really good strong topics like this to just pure complaining.

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

We're not even past the draft or into mini-camp, training camp, or the pre-season.  And already people are trying to get out in front of if there are bad results.  Has nothing to do with "glass half full."  It's mentally setting the basement for results and then we can go back and say...look, I told you so!

 

"One of the problems with being a pessimist is that you can never celebrate when you are proven right." - Thomas Sowell

 

But here, there's no celebration...people just start LAMP's as though they earn royalties off their pessimism. 

 

I know it's long, but read my OP! I am putting Josh Allen in the same elite group as 1 current HOFer, 2 no-doubt first-ballot HOFers, and one likely HOFer. And I'm saying as long as Allen is healthy we will be in the playoff (and yes, SB) hunt. If your expectations are that this team will go 14-3 or 13-4 every season, you are setting yourself up for disappointment. 

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Great post and comments. Bills fans have been through a great deal, especially those of us who’ve been there from the virtual beginning. BOTH the OPs comments and the many responses are CURRENTLY true. What has many of us on edge is the horrible premonition that what if this is all we get? Years of regular season success rivaling the Kelly years; but this time no Super Bowl…not even an appearance. If true it’ll have been a fun decade for sure but the sheer weight of it all will get heavier and heavier with each passing season. 
Go Bills….please! 

You're right ... that old Bills PTSD. It probably will take one Super Bowl win for us to get past that. But hey, until then we get to watch some pretty fantastic football 17 times a year, and then at least a couple times in the playoffs, right?

[BillsVet]

2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I know it's long, but read my OP! I am putting Josh Allen in the same elite group as 1 current HOFer, 2 no-doubt first-ballot HOFers, and one likely HOFer. And I'm saying as long as Allen is healthy we will be in the playoff (and yes, SB) hunt. If your expectations are that this team will go 14-3 or 13-4 every season, you are setting yourself up for disappointment. 

 

Allen's been in his prime now three seasons - since 2020 - and there are things even he cannot mitigate.  

[billsfan_34]

Not buying it- anything short of hoisting the Lombardi means nothing. Some of us are not getting any younger and the roller coaster ride never quite makes it to the top. We deserve a championships not moral victories anymore. 

[Mikie2times]

It's difficult for fans to accept that often times luck plays a large element in winning it all. It could be in the form of bounces or injuries or countless other things. You always want to field your best team, but in my mind, we have just as much a chance at going all the way as a WC as we do being considered the dominant AFC favorite. In a conference that will likely produce multiple HOF QB's you just need to keep putting yourself in the mix. If you have enough hands to play one of them will be good enough. Allen all but guarantees we will see a lot of hands.