Week 13: Bills at Pats on TNF

[Low Positive]

Just now, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Did they actually practice today?

Walk-through

[nosejob]

1 hour ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

9 against Detroit was high, 4.5 seems low. I think a lot of people are over emphasizing the V.M. injury. If there is one QB the Bills can beat w/o Miller, it is Jones. Jones is atrocious so far against the blitz. If the Bills can send people and hurry him, Jones will make mistakes. Looking for Milano, Edmunds, Johnson, and Hamlin to be blitzing from all angles. I am going to go out on a limb and say Elam gets a sack.  

I agree but playing Klein in 4-3 on early downs to kill the run is a must to force them to throw. We can't be giving up 4/5 yds a carry for 1st downs.

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

Disagree, it takes away pass rushers and/or allows Josh to better see where the pressure is coming from. Also allows more weapons in space for him to identify and quickly get the ball to. Im willing to bet we see a decent amount of spread offense. We will see tomorrow night. 

Going 4WR takes away pass rushers?  How so?  
 

what it does is take the TE off the field and leaves quessenberry or Brown on an island with Judon.  

Just now, nosejob said:

I agree but playing Klein in 4-3 on early downs to kill the run is a must to force them to throw. We can't be giving up 4/5 yds a carry for 1st downs.

The pats don’t have a good run game….. we don’t need 3 LBs to stop them.

[PaattMaann]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Going 4WR takes away pass rushers?  How so?  
 

what it does is take the TE off the field and leaves quessenberry or Brown on an island with Judon.  

 

4 and especially 5 wide limits blitzing possibilities/where free rushers can come from. This is a major reason colleges use spread offenses, to help QBs. 

 

5 offensive linemen and three or four down linemen on D doesn't necessarily leave anyone on an island with Judon. In fact I would expect them to have 2 men dedicated to him a lot, regardless of formation.

 

4 Wide also leaves the RB in to help chip on Judon/1 on 1 pass rusher. 

Edited November 30, 2022 by PaattMaann

[Airseven]

I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the offense can muster 20 points.

[Beck Water]

28 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Morse is playing.  Quentin Morris is questionable, illness.  I think he'll play too.

 

Morris has been a 12-20 snaps on offense a game kind of guy, except vs. Pitt (when he played for Knox) and Cleveland (when we played a very high number of heavy sets, including 2 TE sets).

 

You may be right that he's active, especially as he's also a full-time STer. 

 

I was kind of hoping to see him as a WR #5, especially since I thought he looked pretty good against Pittsburgh when he got his chance - would have had a nice TD if the ball hadn't hit the DB in the leg on the way to his hands - or in heavy sets as vs. Detroit.

 

But with him being out so much, thinking we won't see that.

 

I just don't want to see empty sets when we can't pass protect worth beans.

[Patrick Duffy]

8 minutes ago, Airseven said:

I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the offense can muster 20 points.

 

You must be stuck on the way back machine with Tyrod at QB

[DapperCam]

Both teams top 5 in defensive DVOA. Might be a low scoring affair.

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

8 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Morris has been a 12-20 snaps on offense a game kind of guy, except vs. Pitt (when he played for Knox) and Cleveland (when we played a very high number of heavy sets, including 2 TE sets).

 

You may be right that he's active, especially as he's also a full-time STer. 

 

I was kind of hoping to see him as a WR #5, especially since I thought he looked pretty good against Pittsburgh when he got his chance - would have had a nice TD if the ball hadn't hit the DB in the leg on the way to his hands - or in heavy sets as vs. Detroit.

 

But with him being out so much, thinking we won't see that.

 

I just don't want to see empty sets when we can't pass protect worth beans.

Yeah, I could see us running a lot more 2 TE sets this week.  Since Dion is out, and one area to attack the Pats in the passing game is their LBs.

 

Won't be surprised to see Sweeney active too, if our gameplan is to deploy TEs more this week.

[Golden]

2 hours ago, boyst said:

Dawkins and miller put

Morse questionable 

I believe Morse is good to go

[NewEra]

25 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

4 and especially 5 wide limits blitzing possibilities/where free rushers can come from. This is a major reason colleges use spread offenses, to help QBs. 

 

5 offensive linemen and three or four down linemen on D doesn't necessarily leave anyone on an island with Judon. In fact I would expect them to have 2 men dedicated to him a lot, regardless of formation.

 

4 Wide also leaves the RB in to help chip on Judon/1 on 1 pass rusher. 

Blitzing opportunities……I’m not talking about blitzing.  I don’t see why anyone would blitz us tbh.  Our OL can barely block 4 men with 5.  

The problem with keeping our rb in to block, the RB is the guy that is in a mismatch with the Pats slow LB-  I think chipping with the TE is a much more efficient strat.  
 

agree to disagree.
 

last year when we went 5 wide, we got destroyed.  We stopped doing that in week 3-4 because it was so bad

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

12 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Both teams top 5 in defensive DVOA. Might be a low scoring affair.

 

 

Bills need to play it safe. Not turn the ball over. Play good field position. Play good ST. And get points when they can. No shame in scoring like 4 FG’s, and winning this 19-10.

[newcam2012]

31 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Going 4WR takes away pass rushers?  How so?  
 

what it does is take the TE off the field and leaves quessenberry or Brown on an island with Judon.  

The pats don’t have a good run game….. we don’t need 3 LBs to stop them.

The Pats offense is poor statistically in both passing and running. Their red zone efficiency is worst than Buffalo's. If the Pats have any chance to win its probably because if their defense. Allen and others have to protect the ball. Last game, the Pats offense looked good but I don't expect that kind of performance from Jones. Both of these coaches will have solid schemes since they know each other well. The difference maker in recent games has been Allen. Can't he be that guy with his current injury? 

4 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Bills need to play it safe. Not turn the ball over. Play good field position. Play good ST. And get points when they can. No shame in scoring like 4 FG’s, and winning this 19-10.

I agree but I also think this kind of game favors the Pats too. They would love to play a slow grind out physical game. 

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The Pats offense is poor statistically in both passing and running. Their red zone efficiency is worst than Buffalo's. If the Pats have any chance to win its probably because if their defense. Allen and others have to protect the ball. Last game, the Pats offense looked good but I don't expect that kind of performance from Jones. Both of these coaches will have solid schemes since they know each other well. The difference maker in recent games has been Allen. Can't he be that guy with his current injury? 

I’m sure he’ll be that guy again.  Dunno if it this week with Dawkins out, but we’ll soon see

[John from Riverside]

35 minutes ago, Airseven said:

I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the offense can muster 20 points.

Yes, because it’s not like we haven’t done that before against the patriots….oh wait

Edited November 30, 2022 by John from Riverside

[Greg S]

40 minutes ago, Airseven said:

I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the offense can muster 20 points.

 

I agree Mac Jones and company will have a tough time scoring 20 against the Bills D. If the Bills don't turn the ball over, they might not get to 17.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Greg S

[buffblue]

1 hour ago, balln said:

Dawkins out makes me nervous 

Yep he is such an indispensable player for us. Dion has to be one of the most underrated tackles in the league

[PaattMaann]

16 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Blitzing opportunities……I’m not talking about blitzing.  I don’t see why anyone would blitz us tbh.  Our OL can barely block 4 men with 5.  

The problem with keeping our rb in to block, the RB is the guy that is in a mismatch with the Pats slow LB-  I think chipping with the TE is a much more efficient strat.  
 

agree to disagree.
 

last year when we went 5 wide, we got destroyed.  We stopped doing that in week 3-4 because it was so bad

 

RB chip and go out into the flats, motion RB out of backfield pre snap and get him in space on one of their 260 pound slow LBs...some good options there. We will see what they do tomorrow! 

[Bray Wyatt]

I wonder if this is why we got Hines, for matchups like this. Didnt want to give BB any tape on how we would use him, at least thats a hope of mine lol

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The difference maker in recent games has been Allen. Can't he be that guy with his current injury?

 

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m sure he’ll be that guy again.  Dunno if it this week with Dawkins out, but we’ll soon see

 

I think it's more than the elbow myself. I mean, don't get me wrong here....definitely would say the injury plays a part for sure. However I think it's something else also, possibly his confidence to a little drop and also Dorsey may have toned it down with some of the play calls during this time.

 

Reason why I say this is some of the passes from Josh (ex. 40 yd dart to Diggs where only Diggs could get it) where it seems to me the elbow isn't bothering him quite as much, which I'm extremely happy about.

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

RB chip and go out into the flats, motion RB out of backfield pre snap and get him in space on one of their 260 pound slow LBs...some good options there. We will see what they do tomorrow! 

I hear ya.  I just don’t think knox should be on the sidelines very much vs this D. We shall see

[nosejob]

5 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

I wonder if this is why we got Hines, for matchups like this. Didnt want to give BB any tape on how we would use him, at least thats a hope of mine lol

Seems like every time I watch Josh drop back ( on TV), there's always a back open at the top of the screen. He has to learn to pull the trigger on those quickly before it's a wasted 4th read and a loss of what could have been a positive play.

[Pabstblueribbon]

Hoodie vs Dorsey is going to be an interesting one to watch. 

[nosejob]

3 minutes ago, Pabstblueribbon said:

Hoodie vs Dorsey is going to be an interesting one to watch. 

What's gonna be interesting is watching the Hoodie junior with his mullet making Chucky faces.

[Patrick Duffy]

23 minutes ago, NewEra said:

The problem with keeping our rb in to block, the RB is the guy that is in a mismatch with the Pats slow LB-  I think chipping with the TE is a much more efficient strat.

 

Agree, could use 2 RBs at times with 1 helping block and sending the other against the LB. I'm sure we will likely see some of it all with TE/RB helping in the back field. Will be paying close attention to how Dorsey handles this situation.

 

Guess we'll see a little of how much he's learned so far as OC

[Pabstblueribbon]

10 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Seems like every time I watch Josh drop back ( on TV), there's always a back open at the top of the screen. He has to learn to pull the trigger on those quickly before it's a wasted 4th read and a loss of what could have been a positive play.

 

I'm going to go back tonight and re-watch last year's playoff game but if memory serves me, Motor feasted on this exact observation against the pats. 5-7yrd passes in the middle of the field.

[Greg S]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Money coming in on Patriots… line -4 now.

 

Not surprised. I think this will be a FG game. Similar to Detroit where the outcome is still in doubt late into the 4th quarter. The Pats are 6-5 and in a tough AFC their backs are against the wall. They fall to 6-6 they can probably kiss the playoffs goodbye. 

[nosejob]

3 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

Agree, could use 2 RBs at times with 1 helping block and sending the other against the LB. I'm sure we will likely see some of it all with TE/RB helping in the back field. Will be paying close attention to how Dorsey handles this situation.

 

Guess we'll see a little of how much he's learned so far as OC

I'd really like to see some progress with being able to break opponents backs with the short game. Dumpoffs, screens, reverses....heck , how about a flea flicker or some trickery. I thought maybe Dorsey would be along these lines, but not so much...yet.

4 minutes ago, Pabstblueribbon said:

 

I'm going to go back tonight and re-watch last year's playoff game but if memory serves me, Motor feasted on this exact observation against the pats. 5-7yrd passes in the middle of the field.

Please post observations.

3 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

Not surprised. I think this will be a FG game. Similar to Detroit where the outcome is still in doubt late into the 4th quarter. The Pats are 6-5 and in a tough AFC their backs are against the wall. They fall to 6-6 they can probably kiss the playoffs goodbye. 

.....And if we fall to 0-3 in the division.....this is a must win, then we got 10 days to reset for a home game.

[Greg S]

4 minutes ago, nosejob said:

I'd really like to see some progress with being able to break opponents backs with the short game. Dumpoffs, screens, reverses....heck , how about a flea flicker or some trickery. I thought maybe Dorsey would be along these lines, but not so much...yet.

Please post observations.

.....And if we fall to 0-3 in the division.....this is a must win, then we got 10 days to reset for a home game.

 

It's more of a must win for NE but 0-3 would not be good. Bills will have to sweep the division at home if they lose tomorrow.

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, nosejob said:

'd really like to see some progress with being able to break opponents backs with the short game. Dumpoffs, screens, reverses....heck , how about a flea flicker or some trickery. I thought maybe Dorsey would be along these lines, but not so much...yet.

I get it, I'd love for the screen game to begin to have some success. As for the flea flicker, I don't know how much confidence I'd have that the Oline would hold up enough for that. Specially right now with Dawkins out

[nosejob]

2 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

It's more of a must win for NE but 0-3 would not be good. Bills will have to sweep the division at home if they lose tomorrow.

 

1 minute ago, Patrick Duffy said:

I get it, I'd love for the screen game to begin to have some success. As for the flea flicker, I don't know how much confidence I'd have that the Oline would hold up enough for that. Specially right now with Dawkins out

Well the flicker buys time for John Brown to run down the sideline and a pitch out to Knox who throws it to DIggs for 30 and a TD....Damn, I feel like Henry Winkler in the Waterboy.....

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, nosejob said:

 

Well the flicker buys time for John Brown to run down the sideline and a pitch out to Knox who throws it to DIggs for 30 and a TD....Damn, I feel like Henry Winkler in the Waterboy.....

 

It's not going to buy time if the Oline can't hold up long enough for the play to develop. That's my point....we hve been seeing Josh run for his life lately and now Dawkins is out.

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Patrick Duffy

[Dan]

33 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

 

I think it's more than the elbow myself. I mean, don't get me wrong here....definitely would say the injury plays a part for sure. However I think it's something else also, possibly his confidence to a little drop and also Dorsey may have toned it down with some of the play calls during this time.

 

Reason why I say this is some of the passes from Josh (ex. 40 yd dart to Diggs where only Diggs could get it) where it seems to me the elbow isn't bothering him quite as much, which I'm extremely happy about.

I disagree. I think his elbow is a significant factor into his play lately.  I would imagine he feels it with almost every throw and is very much aware that he’s one hit or tweaked throwing angle from a more significant injury.  All causing him to think more and over compensate some of his throwing motions.  
 

Its those end of the game, miracle throws that are the outlier because he knows he has to do it or lose. So he grits his teeth and lets it rip, so to speak. 

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, Dan said:

I disagree. I think his elbow is a significant factor into his play lately.  I would imagine he feels it with almost every throw and is very much aware that he’s one hit or tweaked throwing angle from a more significant injury.  All causing him to think more and over compensate some of his throwing motions.  
 

Its those end of the game, miracle throws that are the outlier because he knows he has to do it or lose. So he grits his teeth and lets it rip, so to speak. 

 

I'm not saying it isn't a factor. It has been to some degree. I think the Vikings game it was more of an issue than Lions game. One would have to consider he no longer wears the protective sleeve for a week or more which makes it seem it's not as bad as it was.

 

 

[Low Positive]

5 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

I'm not saying it isn't a factor. It has been to some degree. I think the Vikings game it was more of an issue than Lions game. One would have to consider he no longer wears the protective sleeve for a week or more which makes it seem it's not as bad as it was.

 

 

He's throwing a lot of passes too high. I assumed that was because of the elbow.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

I’m sure he’ll be that guy again.  Dunno if it this week with Dawkins out, but we’ll soon see

If he's not the guy this week it will be tough for the Bills to win. 

[Patrick Duffy]

Just now, FrenchConnection said:

He's throwing a lot of passes too high. I assumed that was because of the elbow.

Could very well be, also could be other things I mentioned along with it. 

[Success]

Without Harris, the game is ALL about stopping Stevenson.  He's a great runner, and also one of the most frequent targets for Jones.

 

Limit his yards and impact, and we might get to enjoy another laugher.

 

[Comebackkid]

sure somebody already said this but no Dion Dawkins I guess

[YoloinOhio]