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Wawrow hints an Internal Issues with the Bills


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10 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

You just dont get it.  When a defense can T-off based on formation and situation, it makes it a lot easier to defend.

 

Again, this is one of those myths that fans heard once and now can’t let go of. It’s not true.

 

Studies have been done on this. We don’t have to guess anymore. Let’s take a look

 

Sean Clements (a data analyst an NFL team), conducted a study a few years ago. He found that establishing the run does not affect the passing game, or vice versa. 

 

spRCM8_YVQxyeRe6WwgZLh3qF3KulCrX7nCjI3Ll

 

The boxplot shows little correlation between volume running and an increase of success passing. In other words, running the ball does not keep the defense “honest”.

 

We also have Ben Baldwin, the economist who runs a lot of football numbers on Twitter, who showed that expected points on offensive DECREASES as the number of rushing attempts increases. Contrary to the belief running the ball will help to set up the pass and score. 

 

ppWycNBvX7iwXVp96CYxDt2k8ylbRuni4FtjPm28

 

Conclusion: What you believe is a myth. You’re that 84 year old grandpa that everyone rolls their eyes at because he keeps saying the team needs to bring back the old single wing formation.

 

10 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Our offense is already figured out by formation so now they are barely even one dimensional.  

 

Figured out? The offense is #1 in yards and #2 in points. 2 of the 3 losses featured an offense that had over 480 yards in the game. It is ludicrous to say the offense is figured out.

 

They are struggling in the redzone which is the true problem.

 

10 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 Even the Chiefs run the football.

 

The Chiefs, Bengals, Vikings and Chargers all run the ball less than we do. This chart shows rushing attempts.

 

3-A64-C927-8165-4376-82-C2-4793-E017-A08

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23 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

many such examples.

 

this isn't close to being the best team in  the league.

 

Is it the best? Only one team will prove that. Is is close to being the best. Absolutely. To think otherwise shows embarrassing recency bias. 

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24 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

I guess the Vikings believed the myth too when they said in the post game pressers that they knew exactly what we were going to do in the 2nd half based on our formations. 

 

Post the actual quote. I can’t find it. Then we can discuss it.

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4 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

 

Is it the best? Only one team will prove that. Is is close to being the best. Absolutely. To think otherwise shows embarrassing recency bias. 

if you're constantly crapping yourself in pressure situations, you're not close to being the best, sorry.

 

Could they improve? Maybe, but I'm not holding my breath. This team has a worse record than both the Giants AND Jets, despite supposedly being more talented than both.

 

 

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On 11/15/2022 at 10:05 AM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

many such examples.

 

this isn't close to being the best team in  the league.

 

According to DVOA it still is.  If they aren't, why does it take good teams to have the Bills basically piss away myriad chances to win, have leads(2 of them double digit leads), and pretty much take miracles for these teams to win on the last possession by 3 points or less?  

 

A team who is also turning the ball over at an NFL leading rate.  With the entire starting secondary out...plus other starters.  There aren't many, if ANY, teams that would even be competitive under those circumstances, let alone up big and only losing due to mind numbing mistakes they are inflicting on themselves.

 

And in 2 of the losses they had nearly 500 yards of offense.  

 

Like what are you watching?

 

Sounds like you are one of these doom and gloom people who always sees the glass mostly empty. At the end of the day, you will be proven wrong in your assessment. Whether you will actually admit it or not is another thing.

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2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Again, I’m not trying to be dismissive, but you’re incorrect on the reasoning. I spent 2007-2021 on New Orleans. You see, hear and talk Saints all day. I know this better than just about anyone here. Googling records, without context, is useless. BB lost at the Jets. He then went to 9 Super Bowls (or whatever). Payton is AN ELITE HC and can pick whichever job he wants next year. The Bills would be appealing to him (not saying that the job will be open). If the Bills squander another year though they need to be thinking about it. I doubt that they will but Sean Payton is the answer to our offensive woes and swagger that has disappeared. I said that before the season and am sticking with that now.

 

I suspect that he takes over the Dallas job (where his family lives) but will have plenty of opportunties. If you think that he might be an oc somewhere you’re WAY less informed than I ever gave you credit for. 

 

You can't miss the playoffs 40% of the time with Drew Brees and be beyond reproach.

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34 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Again, this is one of those myths that fans heard once and now can’t let go of. It’s not true.

 

Studies have been done on this. We don’t have to guess anymore. Let’s take a look

 

Sean Clements (a data analyst an NFL team), conducted a study a few years ago. He found that establishing the run does not affect the passing game, or vice versa. 

 

spRCM8_YVQxyeRe6WwgZLh3qF3KulCrX7nCjI3Ll

 

The boxplot shows little correlation between volume running and an increase of success passing. In other words, running the ball does not keep the defense “honest”.

 

We also have Ben Baldwin, the economist who runs a lot of football numbers on Twitter, who showed that expected points on offensive DECREASES as the number of rushing attempts increases. Contrary to the belief running the ball will help to set up the pass and score. 

 

ppWycNBvX7iwXVp96CYxDt2k8ylbRuni4FtjPm28

 

Conclusion: What you believe is a myth. You’re that 84 year old grandpa that everyone rolls their eyes at because he keeps saying the team needs to bring back the old single wing formation.

 

 

Figured out? The offense is #1 in yards and #2 in points. 2 of the 3 losses featured an offense that had over 480 yards in the game. It is ludicrous to say the offense is figured out.

 

They are struggling in the redzone which is the true problem.

 

 

The Chiefs, Bengals, Vikings and Chargers all run the ball less than we do. This chart shows rushing attempts.

 

3-A64-C927-8165-4376-82-C2-4793-E017-A08

 

That's a whole lot of data without context. 

 

Your scatter plots have zero ability to give any useful details on a game to game basis. 

 

Had the Bills ran the ball more in the 2nd half against the Vikings, took more time off the clock, converted more short yardage 1st downs and won the game by a score of 27-17, the correlation of points to running attempts would have held up. But they would have won.

 

Is it really surprising that more running attempts take more time off the clock and result in fewer points? Ask the Atlanta Falcons about running the ball in second halves with leads. 

Edited by Motorin'
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2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

According to DVOA it still is.  If they aren't, why does it take good teams to have the Bills basically piss away myriad chances to win, have leads(2 of them double digit leads), and pretty much take miracles for these teams to win on the last possession by 3 points or less?  

 

A team who is also turning the ball over at an NFL leading rate.  

 

And in 2 of the losses they had nearly 500 yards of offense.  

 

Like what are you watching?

The Bills are very good at building a big lead quickly and making it hard for a majority of the teams to keep up.

 

Keep us in a tight game all it takes is 2 offensive stalls with (as of now) an injury depleted defense to get right back in it. Hyde and Poyer had the big plays locked down, Edmunds takes away part of the playing field and we are missing a huge part of what makes our defense so good. With the b team in, mistakes can and will be made, poor angles, missed tackles, going for ints instead of knocking passes down (mental lapses) and now an offense that is known to make mistakes and stall out puts more pressure on themselves and, well, you get what we have here...

 

Looking at some of the plays cover 1 puts up, it looks like there are some plays we don't get the proper spacing on, plays josh has not executed well all season and we keep calling them and arent improving on those fundamental issues, etc. These are part of the drivers of allowing games to be close and outer inability to put the games away. If you can't do this properly, you have to rely on hero ball to pull it out or lose it.

 

Sean preaches fundamentals, and there are fundamental coaching issues within the schemes, players and within the coaching ranks that hurt this team a lot. This is what will start and keep going the divide between offense vs defense, we do our job why can't you do yours...

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

That's a whole lot of data without context. 

 

Studies using league wide, year long or multi year long averages, provide THE context. It is the standard. The basis to which all analytics is predicated.

 

You wanting to use 1 game as an unfounded data point to overrule the standard is the absurd idea.

 

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6 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

The Bills are very good at building a big lead quickly and making it hard for a majority of the teams to keep up.

 

Keep us in a tight game all it takes is 2 offensive stalls with (as of now) an injury depleted defense to get right back in it. Hyde and Poyer had the big plays locked down, Edmunds takes away part of the playing field and we are missing a huge part of what makes our defense so good. With the b team in, mistakes can and will be made, poor angles, missed tackles, going for ints instead of knocking passes down (mental lapses) and now an offense that is known to make mistakes and stall out puts more pressure on themselves and, well, you get what we have here...

 

Looking at some of the plays cover 1 puts up, it looks like there are some plays we don't get the proper spacing on, plays josh has not executed well all season and we keep calling them and arent improving on those fundamental issues, etc. These are part of the drivers of allowing games to be close and outer inability to put the games away. If you can't do this properly, you have to rely on hero ball to pull it out or lose it.

 

Sean preaches fundamentals, and there are fundamental coaching issues within the schemes, players and within the coaching ranks that hurt this team a lot. This is what will start and keep going the divide between offense vs defense, we do our job why can't you do yours...

 

 

 

The Bills simply need to carry their first half game over to the second half and we likely won't lose another game.

Edited by Big Turk
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18 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

According to DVOA it still is.  If they aren't, why does it take good teams to have the Bills basically piss away myriad chances to win, have leads(2 of them double digit leads), and pretty much take miracles for these teams to win on the last possession by 3 points or less?  

 

A team who is also turning the ball over at an NFL leading rate.  With the entire starting secondary out...plus other starters.  There aren't many, if ANY, teams that would even be competitive under those circumstances, let alone up big and only losing due to mind numbing mistakes they are inflicting on themselves.

 

And in 2 of the losses they had nearly 500 yards of offense.  

 

Like what are you watching?

 

Sounds like you are one of these doom and gloom people who always sees the glass mostly empty. At the end of the day, you will be proven wrong in your assessment. Whether you will actually admit it or not is another thing.

Maybe, just maybe, DVOA isn't reliable.

 

Hey, if, IFFFFFF they turn it around and win the division, secure home field throughout AND make it to the super bowl, I'll gladly eat my crow. But I feel pretty confident that most if not all those things won't happen.

 

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2 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Maybe, just maybe, DVOA isn't reliable.

 

Hey, if, IFFFFFF they turn it around and win the division, secure home field throughout AND make it to the super bowl, I'll gladly eat my crow. But I feel pretty confident that most if not all those things won't happen.

 

 

You are right., They are going to finish 8-9. 😅🤣

 

You are bordering on troll territory at this point.

 

You been posting while out being chased by the Jersey Devil again??

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12 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

You laugh, but swamp squatch exists!!

 

 

I don't doubt it actually...Paranormal Caught On Camera and Mysteries and Monsters on Discovery+ is pretty eye opening to things that probably shouldn't exist but seemingly do...interestingly, the military seems to have some involvement in a lot of these which makes you wonder if they are somehow things created by them and put in various remote locations to do experiments with.

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On 11/14/2022 at 7:56 AM, BillMafia716ix said:

Maybe Singletary and Dorsey got some kind of beef going on. Maybe that’s why he didn’t see the ball the 2nd half.  If so, I side with Motor. 

I dont even like Singletary... but I would too.i would side with anyone over Dorsey

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48 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Maybe, just maybe, DVOA isn't reliable.

 

Hey, if, IFFFFFF they turn it around and win the division, secure home field throughout AND make it to the super bowl, I'll gladly eat my crow. But I feel pretty confident that most if not all those things won't happen.

 

Half of those won't happen as of the way we play now. No super bowl, no 1st seed, no division title at this point either.

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4 minutes ago, boyst said:

Half of those won't happen as of the way we play now. No super bowl, no 1st seed, no division title at this point either.

 

The good thing is those aren't based on how we play now...just like none of those things would have happened at this point in the season for any of the last 3 teams that won the SB if we were looking at it objectively after 10-12 games. KC lost 4 of 6 to go to 6-4, TB lost 3 of 4 to go to 7-5, including a 38-3 demolition job at the hands of the Saints, and Rams lost 3 straight to go to 7-4, including getting bombed by the 49ers 31-10.  In the end, it didn't matter how they were playing in week 10, 11 or 12.  Just like it won't matter with this team.

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On 11/14/2022 at 2:27 PM, LeGOATski said:

Has @john wawrowposted in this thread yet? I love when he brings his BS to the board and then gets all mad when people call him out on it.

 

The vaxx stuff never "nearly tore the team apart" but it was a story Wawrow tried to force down our throats and now he's doubling down. He's of the belief that if you write something down enough times, it becomes fact. That's the kind of journalist he is. He doesn't chase the TRUE story, he chases what he thinks SHOULD be the story. He knows it's the perfect time to hint at trouble right now (as the team hits a rough patch) because that's when he can get the most reaction from readers. Drama, drama, drama.... It just doesn't work as well when the team is winning.

 

No. The Vax stuff never tore the team apart. But it almost did, contributing heavily to the mid-season slump last year until Josh Allen finally put his foot down.

As for what I hinted at, there was one more hint this week on it. ... Still working on getting to the bottom of it.

 

I'm not mad, except for the fact I'm wasting my time responding to, checks name, really, leGoatski.

 

sigh.

 

Just following my instincts and what people tell me, to get to the truth. You're the one speculating on what I know and don't.

 

jw

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1 minute ago, john wawrow said:

 

No. The Vax stuff never tore the team apart. But it almost did, contributing heavily to the mid-season slump last year until Josh Allen finally put his foot down.

As for what I hinted at, there was one more hint this week on it. ... Still working on getting to the bottom of it.

 

I'm not mad, except for the fact I'm wasting my time responding to, checks name, really, leGoatski.

 

sigh.

 

Just following my instincts and what people tell me, to get to the truth. You're the one speculating on what I know and don't.

 

jw


If the “Vax issue” contributed heavily to last seasons slump, this team has ZERO chance of winning a super bowl. 
 

(Im not really buying that anyways)

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4 minutes ago, john wawrow said:

 

No. The Vax stuff never tore the team apart. But it almost did, contributing heavily to the mid-season slump last year until Josh Allen finally put his foot down.

As for what I hinted at, there was one more hint this week on it. ... Still working on getting to the bottom of it.

 

I'm not mad, except for the fact I'm wasting my time responding to, checks name, really, leGoatski.

 

sigh.

 

Just following my instincts and what people tell me, to get to the truth. You're the one speculating on what I know and don't.

 

jw

Great. Now we have to decode the other hint. You are gonna give us a stroke. Thaaaaaaaaaanks John

 

And now we are off to 40 more pages! 

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13 minutes ago, john wawrow said:

 

No. The Vax stuff never tore the team apart. But it almost did, contributing heavily to the mid-season slump last year until Josh Allen finally put his foot down.

As for what I hinted at, there was one more hint this week on it. ... Still working on getting to the bottom of it.

 

I'm not mad, except for the fact I'm wasting my time responding to, checks name, really, leGoatski.

 

sigh.

 

Just following my instincts and what people tell me, to get to the truth. You're the one speculating on what I know and don't.

 

jw

 

Half the team doesn't read the Buffalo News. That must be it. 

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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

I don't doubt it actually...Paranormal Caught On Camera and Mysteries and Monsters on Discovery+ is pretty eye opening to things that probably shouldn't exist but seemingly do...interestingly, the military seems to have some involvement in a lot of these which makes you wonder if they are somehow things created by them and put in various remote locations to do experiments with.

 

Don’t EVEN get me started on what is on the ocean floor!!!

 

 

 

😋

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19 minutes ago, john wawrow said:

 

No. The Vax stuff never tore the team apart. But it almost did, contributing heavily to the mid-season slump last year until Josh Allen finally put his foot down.

As for what I hinted at, there was one more hint this week on it. ... Still working on getting to the bottom of it.

 

I'm not mad, except for the fact I'm wasting my time responding to, checks name, really, leGoatski.

 

sigh.

 

Just following my instincts and what people tell me, to get to the truth. You're the one speculating on what I know and don't.

 

jw

 

You are making it sound as if the Bills are the only thing with stuff like this going on.  I would virtually guarantee there is similar stuff going on with every team across the NFL. To suggest you are going to have 150+ people all involved that will get along great, have no friction and sing Kum-Bay-Yah for 9 months a year is silliness.  As was the case of The Bickering Bills, it will likely be more of a media generated issue than an actual issue.

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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

The Bills simply need to carry their first half game over to the second half and we likely won't lose another game.

Ffs,

 

Adjustments get made to counter what we are doing and we stink and countering back quick enough, by the time we do, we have a few lost possessions in the second half (3 points, 3 points, 6 points) and with a defense that is injured right up the middle and our shell over top not being there....bad things man, bad things....

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2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Ffs,

 

Adjustments get made to counter what we are doing and we stink and countering back quick enough, by the time we do, we have a few lost possessions in the second half (3 points, 3 points, 6 points) and with a defense that is injured right up the middle and our shell over top not being there....bad things man, bad things....

 

The best thing is...we have Josh F**king Allen and he is likely to figure it out sooner rather than later based on prior results.

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2 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

It’s just a purely factual statistic which points out your use of 1) a straw man argument and 2) a red herring to avoid good faith discussion.

 

I never made a comparison of talent or said that Singletary is as good as Kamara. I just used Kamara to prove that total rushing yardage per season isn’t the sole indication of talent. Kamara fit the bill because he has the same YPC average (4.6) as Singletary,  played with a top 5 QB, and played in a pass heavy offense. When it comes to receiving (overall talent factor) there’s no comparison as Kamara has four seasons with 80+ receptions and several seasons with 15+ TDs. 

Glad you at least pointed out Kamaras TDs and receiving stats. They are incomparable. To even bring his name up in the argument is ridiculous regardless what you or anyone else says about my comments of 1k yards. Forget 1k yards. He’s never even got 900. He’s got 13 total rushing TDs in 3.5 years. He’s just not good. Never has been. There is no argument that proves that he is. Just because he’s had a few good runs in his career. He’s a dud at the position and if he’s resigned which I highly doubt, it’ll be for a very team friendly deal. And we will continue to look for other RBs that can take away his Carrie’s like we’ve done the last 2.5 years with multiple draft picks, free agents, and trades. 

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26 minutes ago, boyst said:

Great. Now we have to decode the other hint. You are gonna give us a stroke. Thaaaaaaaaaanks John

 

And now we are off to 40 more pages! 

 

Aside from coaching, I wonder if this falls under the category of players who could be playing but aren't based on pending UFA decisions and Tre being healthy enough to play but not...

 

just trying to think of what else is out there

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1 minute ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Aside from coaching, I wonder if this falls under the category of players who could be playing but aren't based on pending UFA decisions and Tre being healthy enough to play but not...

 

just trying to think of what else is out there

at this point it's just fun.

 

a decision based on signing someone like OBJ would be interesting and could really be disruptive. i have a feeling he may not gel here like some people think.

 

the tre being healthy thing is interesting. WGR had a good point this morning that this was the first real time he's been away from football and missed time - which i don't think is accurate because i thought he tore his knee already once. still, could see him not ready to play yet.

 

i have to ponder this situation with players because the few i'd suspect to be cancerous are showing no signs of it. hmmph. maybe i will put some feelers out.

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4 minutes ago, boyst said:

at this point it's just fun.

 

a decision based on signing someone like OBJ would be interesting and could really be disruptive. i have a feeling he may not gel here like some people think.

 

the tre being healthy thing is interesting. WGR had a good point this morning that this was the first real time he's been away from football and missed time - which i don't think is accurate because i thought he tore his knee already once. still, could see him not ready to play yet.

 

i have to ponder this situation with players because the few i'd suspect to be cancerous are showing no signs of it. hmmph. maybe i will put some feelers out.

 

Players have regularly spoken about at some point how it is more of a mental thing than a physical thing with trusting your body and leg to be back to normal and trusting it will be fine if you push it hard and do things like you used to before getting hurt, especially with serious long term injuries like ACL's.  Perhaps Tre doesn't trust his body enough and isn't giving the coaches enough confidence to put him back in yet.

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7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, Dorsey's doing a bad job.

 

I personally find an offense that is #1 in the league to be abhorrent. Almost as abhorrent as an offense that is #2 in scoring. We've got to improve!! But clearly this tire fire is all Dorsey's fault and no blame can be laid elsewhere.

 

Yes, he is doing a bad job. Your vaunted #1 offense over the last 3 weeks has scored 3 points, 3 points, 6 points in the second half.  I realize you are the king of condescending replies around here but nowhere did I say its all Dorsey's fault.

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24 minutes ago, boyst said:

at this point it's just fun.

 

a decision based on signing someone like OBJ would be interesting and could really be disruptive. i have a feeling he may not gel here like some people think.

 

the tre being healthy thing is interesting. WGR had a good point this morning that this was the first real time he's been away from football and missed time - which i don't think is accurate because i thought he tore his knee already once. still, could see him not ready to play yet.

 

i have to ponder this situation with players because the few i'd suspect to be cancerous are showing no signs of it. hmmph. maybe i will put some feelers out.


If one looks at Wawrow’s tweets from Sunday, they’re entirely focused on the offense and Josh making dumb turnovers, rather than checking the ball down.  Could be something like certain guys demanding the ball, Gabe Davis unhappy about his pay relative to others, etc.  Who knows now!

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After further review, I'm sticking to my guess about McDermott being a taskmaster type but also trying to be a player's coach.

 

Even up to his last year in NE, Brady NEVER made the call to go for it on 4th down. That was 100% Belichick. Brady was treated like a 7th round rookie even after 20 years there, which I'm not saying is good (he obviously got sick of it) but the HC is who he is: a mumbling, control freak grumpy guy who is always miserable. You know what to expect. and also, the decisions are his. Period. If Brady tried that I would expect Bill to call a timeout, tell "the QB" to sit his ass on the bench, and then punt the ball. 

 

There have been some clues that I've noticed that McDermott carries himself that way but isn't consistent, which is likely to cause problems. McKenzie was talking about the 13 seconds last winter on his YouTube show from whatever local restaurant he was in for it all season, and when asked about 13 seconds basically said it was McDermott's call and the team didn't know anything more than we do. 

 

He basically said something to the effect of coach made the call, and that's it. We're just players. No explanation owed, and none given. Clean out your lockers, have a good offseason and thanks for the effort. 

 

That why I was shocked when he resigned here. I thought for sure he was a goner, especially after those comments. He just seemed annoyed and ready to move on. 

 

If McD is a "my way or the highway" type with some players but not all (Allen) then I could see there being a real issue. Players are sort of hard wired to accept the miserable taskmaster HC, or the gregarious "you got the DAWG in ya!" type, but you can't go back and forth based on who you're talking to. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, john wawrow said:

 

No. The Vax stuff never tore the team apart. But it almost did, contributing heavily to the mid-season slump last year until Josh Allen finally put his foot down.

As for what I hinted at, there was one more hint this week on it. ... Still working on getting to the bottom of it.

 

I'm not mad, except for the fact I'm wasting my time responding to, checks name, really, leGoatski.

 

sigh.

 

Just following my instincts and what people tell me, to get to the truth. You're the one speculating on what I know and don't.

 

jw

 

Honestly... you shouldnt talk about things that you cant talk about.  Saying things like "there is internal conflict with the team" but not being able to talk about what that is, is kind of horseshit.  All it does is create rumors about what that can be and all that does is create conflict with Bills fans arguing about it. Rumors then end up being some kind of fact.  If you cant talk about something then dont say anything at all.  There is zero reason to say anything.

 

If you have a story then break it.  Otherwise just stop.

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34 minutes ago, boyst said:

at this point it's just fun.

 

a decision based on signing someone like OBJ would be interesting and could really be disruptive. i have a feeling he may not gel here like some people think.

 

the tre being healthy thing is interesting. WGR had a good point this morning that this was the first real time he's been away from football and missed time - which i don't think is accurate because i thought he tore his knee already once. still, could see him not ready to play yet.

 

i have to ponder this situation with players because the few i'd suspect to be cancerous are showing no signs of it. hmmph. maybe i will put some feelers out.

I heard that from Sal this am too. It certainly seems like it is a mental hurdle for him. 

 

I don't see Diggs as cancerous, I see him as a very, very passionate player. I don't think Edmunds or Oliver would dog it, but I could see Poyer betting on a big raise this offseason and trying to stay healthy and trying to show his worth to the team. 

 

I think OBJ would be enough to give everyone a big kick in the ass the right way at this point where we are this year

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