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Why arm strength matters(Mac Jones/Josh Allen comparison in playoff game by Cover 1)


Big Turk

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1 hour ago, Ayjent said:

Mac Jones is a limited QB in physical attributes, but he played pretty well for a rookie.  Thing is, I don't know how much better he can be.  I feel like he is going to be a capable starter because he is not flustered in the pocket and makes good accurate throws, but I don't really see him taking a huge step forward from his rookie year.  The Pats could have done much worse with a QB pick, and he was an improvement over Cam Newton by a mile.

 

Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are in their own stratosphere of talent, though.  Yes the old dogs of Brady and Rodgers are still impressive as hell, but any GM in the league would take Allen or Mahomes if they could pick any QB in the league to put on their team.  There is a tier below with Burrow, Brady, Rodgers, Russel Wilson, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert.  You could throw Matt Stafford in there as well I suppose.  But then there are the rest IMO - guys who are decent, but are going to hold you back as much as they push you forward.  Some are definitely better than others, and an argument can be made for guys like Carr, Watson, Ryan, Murray, and a few others, being a notch above the pack as well, but I don't trust any of that group to be consistent enough.  Mac Jones isn't even in that group IMO.

 

Agree with both main thoughts here.

 

Jones reminds me of Brady as a first year starter in 2001.  He wasn't that impressive except that he tended to make good decisions, especially for a QB with such limited experience (the game after Bledsoe got injured was his first NFL start).  For several years after 2001, there were always debates on the old BBMB over whether Brady was a "system QB" or "a franchise QB".  I guess we all found out he was for real.  It wasn't Brady's arm strength that made him the GOAT any more than it's lack of arm strength that has sent Carson Wentz from Philly to Indy to Washington, DC.  It's a combination of traits, but more than anything, it's decision making -- knowing when and where to throw the ball.

 

Mahomes and Allen have shown they're truly special.  Mahomes has shown that since his first game in 2017.   Allen took a couple of years to develop because he was so raw when he came into the league.  I think that the most likely candidates to join them on the podium are Watson, Herbert and Burrow although it's likely that not all of them -- or possibly none of them -- actually achieve the same status. 

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On 4/9/2022 at 7:38 PM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I’m pretty shocked with how they’re building their teams honestly…feels like they’re playing for a wildcard.  I would’ve revamped the defense rather than signing tyreek if I was Miami 

 

Allen has owned them and is practically undefendable now. Why bother? Going to hold him to 26 instead of 30+?

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When Jones was letting that ball go the receiver was open and I thought TD. When Hyde makes the interception my first thoughts were, that’s an incredible play and that ball took to long to get there. If you look at Jones’ passing charts there are not a lot of passes beyond 15 yards and most are shorter. He is better throwing to his left, does not have much of a game over the middle. Maybe he improves or maybe that’s who he is. He had a good season for a rookie, but I keep thinking he is like a first year pitcher, once everyone gets a look at him and figures out what he can and cannot do, things get rough.

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On 4/9/2022 at 2:15 PM, Big Turk said:

Really good breakdown...

 

Both threw the ball from the 42 yard line on the opposite hash...

 

Mac Jones ball took 3.1 seconds to get 1 yard deep in the end zone.

 

Josh Allen's ball took 2.5 seconds to get 7 yards deep in the end zone.

 

One was an INT, the other a TD. One of these things is not like the others...

 

 

This is a BS argument.  Strongest arms don’t make a qb.

 

he underthrew his WR.  Had he threw it a split second earlier it might have been a TD pass where S would have not gotten to it. If he threw it at a slightly lower angle would have gotten there a split second sooner.

 

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41 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

This is a BS argument.  Strongest arms don’t make a qb.

 

he underthrew his WR.  Had he threw it a split second earlier it might have been a TD pass where S would have not gotten to it. If he threw it at a slightly lower angle would have gotten there a split second sooner.

 

Elite physical tools make a huge difference, period.

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44 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

This is a BS argument.  Strongest arms don’t make a qb.

 

he underthrew his WR.  Had he threw it a split second earlier it might have been a TD pass where S would have not gotten to it. If he threw it at a slightly lower angle would have gotten there a split second sooner.

 

He can’t get it there throwing it at a lower angle, that’s the point. 

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48 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

This is a BS argument.  Strongest arms don’t make a qb.

 

he underthrew his WR.  Had he threw it a split second earlier it might have been a TD pass where S would have not gotten to it. If he threw it at a slightly lower angle would have gotten there a split second sooner.

 

Or if he didn't have a rag arm, maybe it wouldn't have taken a half second longer to get there?

 

Dude...do you not understand how physics work? Players who can't throw the ball with enough velocity to use a lower angle have to put more air under the ball.

 

That's the entire point.

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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Or if he didn't have a rag arm, maybe it wouldn't have taken a half second longer to get there?

 

Dude...do you not understand how physics work? Players who can't throw the ball with enough velocity to use a lower angle have to put more air under the ball.

 

That's the entire point.


im a data scientist and I understand the formulas on projectile motion.

 

distance is based on velocity and throwing angle of the projectile.  Time of release also matters.

 

i can’t tell that in the replay to say what the reason was.

 

this doesn’t remotely say why Allen is better…it’s a piss poor argument that have big holes.

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13 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I am not debating that with you but there is a certain Pats fan on here who will. 

He is a hoot isn’t he 😁👍

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50 minutes ago, djp14150 said:


im a data scientist and I understand the formulas on projectile motion.

 

distance is based on velocity and throwing angle of the projectile.  Time of release also matters.

 

i can’t tell that in the replay to say what the reason was.

 

this doesn’t remotely say why Allen is better…it’s a piss poor argument that have big holes.

 

Velocity is the part Jones is lacking in that equation. Don't try and overcomplicate things. The simplest answer is usually the correct one.

 

 

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4 hours ago, djp14150 said:

This is a BS argument.  Strongest arms don’t make a qb.

 

he underthrew his WR.  Had he threw it a split second earlier it might have been a TD pass where S would have not gotten to it. If he threw it at a slightly lower angle would have gotten there a split second sooner.

 

If , if , would he , if he , had he , it might have , 

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On 4/9/2022 at 7:26 PM, FireChans said:

 

I think it’s extremely oversimplifying it by saying it’s just arm strength is the difference between the two plays. Micah’s

play was unreal. 

 

I think you’re missing the point.  If Jones gets the ball there faster, with less arc, Hyde can’t make that play.  Hence, arm strength.

 

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10 hours ago, djp14150 said:


im a data scientist and I understand the formulas on projectile motion.

 

distance is based on velocity and throwing angle of the projectile.  Time of release also matters.

 

i can’t tell that in the replay to say what the reason was.

 

this doesn’t remotely say why Allen is better…it’s a piss poor argument that have big holes.

Since you are a data scientist, can you say that Jones could get the ball to that spot on the field throwing at a lower angle OR would that cause the ball to land at a different location? 

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11 hours ago, CoudyBills said:

Elite physical tools make a huge difference, period.

 

Physical tools don't mean much without the ability to process information quickly and make good decisions.  The history of the NFL is filled with highly drafted QBs with "elite physical tools" who crashed and burned on their inability to master the mental nuances of the pro game.  Conversely, there are QBs with lesser tools who have successful careers because their ability to make plays because they make good decisions.   Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, and Jimmy Garappolo are all examples of not the greatest physical tools that have been successful.    If elite physical tools were so "huge", so many QBs with elite arms wouldn't fail in the NFL. 

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1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

Physical tools don't mean much without the ability to process information quickly and make good decisions.  The history of the NFL is filled with highly drafted QBs with "elite physical tools" who crashed and burned on their inability to master the mental nuances of the pro game.  Conversely, there are QBs with lesser tools who have successful careers because their ability to make plays because they make good decisions.   Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, and Jimmy Garappolo are all examples of not the greatest physical tools that have been successful.    If elite physical tools were so "huge", so many QBs with elite arms wouldn't fail in the NFL. 

This conversation is with regard to Mac and Josh.  

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3 hours ago, eball said:

 

I think you’re missing the point.  If Jones gets the ball there faster, with less arc, Hyde can’t make that play.  Hence, arm strength.

 

And if he throws it a little more outside, Hyde also can’t make that play.

 

I stand by that it’s not as simple as arm strength.

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3 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Since you are a data scientist, can you say that Jones could get the ball to that spot on the field throwing at a lower angle OR would that cause the ball to land at a different location? 


i coukd not tell his throwing snake and how much ooomof he had on it.

 

45 degree angle gets you the farthest. +/- around 45 cuts out on distance. Higher degrees will take more time and can be affected more by w8nd.

 

in a windy day if you can do the throw at say 30 degrees you won’t be as affected from winds altering trajectory than a high ball.  If you have good arm stragth you can throw far at low angles….limiting wind effects.

 

it’s similar with golf and driving a ball. You hit a ball below tree line wind won’t factor in as much as a high arc drive where the ball got above the tree line.

 

Jones missing the pass is more of timing of throw than arm.

 

with all deep passes you want it ahead of your receiver because DBs are usually behind them.

 

another factor is the safety anticipation of the throw and playing it.  
 

no analysis was done on looking off the safety or other route distractions that could have limited safety help.

 

 

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2 hours ago, CoudyBills said:

This conversation is with regard to Mac and Josh.  

 

This "conversation" is simply a poor attempt to dump on Jones (and the Pats) and pretend it's not by making generalized statements about physical traits being supreme.  That's nonsense.   What makes Allen an elite NFL QB isn't his arm strength but all his "intangibles", especially his drive, his processing ability, his decision making.  He came with the drive but he's had to work on his mechanics to improve his accuracy, he had to learn to read/recognize defenses, and he had to improve his decision making based on his experience.   Guess what, most QBs who have come into the NFL with great arms have never improved nearly as much as Allen has, which is, again, why he's special.

 

If Jones has as much drive and other intangibles as Allen, based off of his rookie season, Jones may very well become a successful NFL QB if he continues to work on his game.  He won't be in Allen's level but there aren't many QBs who are.

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4 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

This "conversation" is simply a poor attempt to dump on Jones (and the Pats) and pretend it's not by making generalized statements about physical traits being supreme.  That's nonsense.   What makes Allen an elite NFL QB isn't his arm strength but all his "intangibles", especially his drive, his processing ability, his decision making.  He came with the drive but he's had to work on his mechanics to improve his accuracy, he had to learn to read/recognize defenses, and he had to improve his decision making based on his experience.   Guess what, most QBs who have come into the NFL with great arms have never improved nearly as much as Allen has, which is, again, why he's special.

 

If Jones has as much drive and other intangibles as Allen, based off of his rookie season, Jones may very well become a successful NFL QB if he continues to work on his game.  He won't be in Allen's level but there aren't many QBs who are.

 

This isn't about whether Jones can be successful or not on this level. It's simply showing he doesn't have the arm strength to make a throw that Allen effortlessly makes. Can Jones be an elite game manager? Sure. But at the end of the day he is just a game manager. They can do really well in the regular season...look at Alex Smith with the Chiefs or Chad Pennington. But once they get in the playoffs it's a different game.

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1 hour ago, FireChans said:

And if he throws it a little more outside, Hyde also can’t make that play.

 

I stand by that it’s not as simple as arm strength.

 

Sounds like you're just arguing to argue.  Suit yourself.

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57 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

This "conversation" is simply a poor attempt to dump on Jones (and the Pats) and pretend it's not by making generalized statements about physical traits being supreme.  That's nonsense.   What makes Allen an elite NFL QB isn't his arm strength but all his "intangibles", especially his drive, his processing ability, his decision making.  He came with the drive but he's had to work on his mechanics to improve his accuracy, he had to learn to read/recognize defenses, and he had to improve his decision making based on his experience.   Guess what, most QBs who have come into the NFL with great arms have never improved nearly as much as Allen has, which is, again, why he's special.

 

If Jones has as much drive and other intangibles as Allen, based off of his rookie season, Jones may very well become a successful NFL QB if he continues to work on his game.  He won't be in Allen's level but there aren't many QBs who are.

It’s always okay to dump on the entire Pats organization, to include their QB, in fact if you are a real fan you dump on any team that’s not your own, like it or not, it’s a rule…,  😁👍

 

 

 

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Yes, a guy with freakish arm strength can make plays that an average arm can't.  That's been true throughout the entire history of the forward pass.  That doesn't mean Mac Jones can't be a good-to-great QB.  He just needs to make up for it in different ways (pre-snap reads, anticipation, looking guys off, ball placement, etc.).  Yes, he's an extreme outlier, but look at what Drew Brees accomplished over his career with an average arm.  And Brady didn't have a particularly strong arm when he entered the league, but he somehow improved that over time through "diet and excercise."  I'm not about to write a guy off after a solid rookie season where he led a mediocre roster to the playoffs. 

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On 4/9/2022 at 6:31 PM, PonyBoy said:

I agree with your video and stat post. However! Bills fans and NFL fans would say, that was a ridiculous closing speed interception & perception by Hyde!!!

That is a lazer beam like Allens its likely a TD.  The air under the ball allowed the extra time needed to make a play on the ball.   It doesnt make any blanket statements about Jones success level.  Simply, this time of year traits get downplayed by many looking at draft prospects.  This video shows why things like arm strength can make a difference.  

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On 4/9/2022 at 5:41 PM, FireChans said:

Lol I mean sure, but Mac’s ball a little more accurately placed outside is a TD. And Sanders was way more open.

Yeah, but it was not accurate, and it took long to get there.  Maybe he was more open because the DBs could not close on it?  

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1 hour ago, TheBrownBear said:

I'm not about to write a guy off after a solid rookie season where he led a mediocre roster to the playoffs. 

 

Define "led."  Are you really suggesting the Pats*** won games last year because of Mac Jones' play?  I think most outside observers would say the Pats*** made it to the playoffs behind a stellar defense and running game.  Was he serviceable?  Sure.  He put up a decent rating with his dinks and dunks, but from what I witnessed he didn't ever put the team on his back.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

It’s always okay to dump on the entire Pats organization, to include their QB, in fact if you are a real fan you dump on any team that’s not your own, like it or not, it’s a rule…,  😁👍

 

 

 

 

After decades of being on the receiving end of manure from Pats, Fins, and Jests fans because this franchise was so hopeless for so long, I revel in knowing that we have one of the very best organizations in the NFL that found a generational talent at QB.  I don't get my jollies rubbing other teams' proverbial noses in poop on a MB.  The Bills kicking butt during the season and playoffs is sweet enough revenge.

 

1 hour ago, TheBrownBear said:

Yes, a guy with freakish arm strength can make plays that an average arm can't.  That's been true throughout the entire history of the forward pass.  That doesn't mean Mac Jones can't be a good-to-great QB.  He just needs to make up for it in different ways (pre-snap reads, anticipation, looking guys off, ball placement, etc.).  Yes, he's an extreme outlier, but look at what Drew Brees accomplished over his career with an average arm.  And Brady didn't have a particularly strong arm when he entered the league, but he somehow improved that over time through "diet and excercise."  I'm not about to write a guy off after a solid rookie season where he led a mediocre roster to the playoffs. 

 

Totally agree.  IMO, Belichick wanted Jones because he thinks he can coach him into a facsimile of Brady.  Maybe he can but he probably won't, but certainly Brady and Brees are examples of guys without rocket arms who are going to Canton on the first ballot.

 

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

That is a lazer beam like Allens its likely a TD.  The air under the ball allowed the extra time needed to make a play on the ball.   It doesnt make any blanket statements about Jones success level.  Simply, this time of year traits get downplayed by many looking at draft prospects.  This video

 

shows why things like arm strength can make a difference.  

 

Unfortunately, QBs like Rodgers or Mahomes or Allen don't come along that often.   That's why they're "generational talents".  

 

Mostly, the best a team can realistically hope for is getting a Russell Wilson or a Ben Roethlisberger or Drew Brees.  They're great QBs but a team that finds a Rodgers, Mahomes or Allen has a horseshoe up its butt.  For a team to get into the position to draft a top QB prospect when it needs one usually means having several circumstances to fall their way.  The best QB in a draft class may very well not be the #1 overall pick.  Rodgers (#24), Mahomes(#10) or Allen(#7) weren't the first QBs taken in their draft classes. 

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37 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Define "led."  Are you really suggesting the Pats*** won games last year because of Mac Jones' play?  I think most outside observers would say the Pats*** made it to the playoffs behind a stellar defense and running game.  Was he serviceable?  Sure.  He put up a decent rating with his dinks and dunks, but from I witnessed he didn't ever put the team on his back.

"Led" in that he started 17 games for a playoff team, completed 67% of his passes and threw for over 3800 yards - as a rookie.  We tend to think Bill treated him with kid gloves because of the wind game, but he attempted 521 passes, which puts him in the top half of the league.  He clearly elevated that offense compared to what they rolled out there in 2020.  I'm not saying he strikes fear in me as a Bills fan, but he clearly was a difference maker for the Pats as a rookie and was light years ahead of a guy like Tua.  

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2 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

I'm not saying he strikes fear in me as a Bills fan, but he clearly was a difference maker for the Pats as a rookie and was light years ahead of a guy like Tua.  

 

And that's where we disagree.  I think Belichick can take just about any mid-level QB and get that performance out of him with his dink and dunk system if he's got a strong defense and running game.  Calling Jones a "difference-maker" is hilarious; in extreme conditions he wasn't even allowed to play the position.

 

Only three QBs who started all 17 games last season threw for fewer yards than Jones.  Only three threw fewer TDs.  He is a "middle of the pack" QB in just about every aspect of the game, which is fine.  He can have a nice little NFL career.  Gotta dream bigger with a 1st round QB.

 

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3 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

After decades of being on the receiving end of manure from Pats, Fins, and Jests fans because this franchise was so hopeless for so long, I revel in knowing that we have one of the very best organizations in the NFL that found a generational talent at QB.  I don't get my jollies rubbing other teams' proverbial noses in poop on a MB.  The Bills kicking butt during the season and playoffs is sweet enough revenge.

 

 

Totally agree.  IMO, Belichick wanted Jones because he thinks he can coach him into a facsimile of Brady.  Maybe he can but he probably won't, but certainly Brady and Brees are examples of guys without rocket arms who are going to Canton on the first ballot.

 

 

Unfortunately, QBs like Rodgers or Mahomes or Allen don't come along that often.   That's why they're "generational talents".  

 

Mostly, the best a team can realistically hope for is getting a Russell Wilson or a Ben Roethlisberger or Drew Brees.  They're great QBs but a team that finds a Rodgers, Mahomes or Allen has a horseshoe up its butt.  For a team to get into the position to draft a top QB prospect when it needs one usually means having several circumstances to fall their way.  The best QB in a draft class may very well not be the #1 overall pick.  Rodgers (#24), Mahomes(#10) or Allen(#7) weren't the first QBs taken in their draft classes. 

Sports without talking smack with friends and other teams fans is a vastly reduced experience, where would we be if no one ever busted a fins fan over their weak little QB? Or a jets fan about the tire fire that is that organization?? The freaking world would stop spinning on its axis, the space time continuum would collapse, I could end up the dictator of the planet earth…, and really, who wants that????  We are all better off talking some trash from time to time, it soothes the soul, much like a well mixed martini and a cigarette 🚬 

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Arm strength is not all about launching the ball 60 yards down the field.

 

I don't think most fans have an appreciation for HOW LONG OF A THROW a pass is that goes 7 yards downfield, but goes close to the width of the field, or from one hash mark to the other.  There is a lot of open space out there on an NFL football field!

 

 

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

After decades of being on the receiving end of manure from Pats, Fins, and Jests fans because this franchise was so hopeless for so long, I revel in knowing that we have one of the very best organizations in the NFL that found a generational talent at QB.  I don't get my jollies rubbing other teams' proverbial noses in poop on a MB.  The Bills kicking butt during the season and playoffs is sweet enough revenge.

 

 

Totally agree.  IMO, Belichick wanted Jones because he thinks he can coach him into a facsimile of Brady.  Maybe he can but he probably won't, but certainly Brady and Brees are examples of guys without rocket arms who are going to Canton on the first ballot.

 

 

Unfortunately, QBs like Rodgers or Mahomes or Allen don't come along that often.   That's why they're "generational talents".  

 

Mostly, the best a team can realistically hope for is getting a Russell Wilson or a Ben Roethlisberger or Drew Brees.  They're great QBs but a team that finds a Rodgers, Mahomes or Allen has a horseshoe up its butt.  For a team to get into the position to draft a top QB prospect when it needs one usually means having several circumstances to fall their way.  The best QB in a draft class may very well not be the #1 overall pick.  Rodgers (#24), Mahomes(#10) or Allen(#7) weren't the first QBs taken in their draft classes. 

Russel Wilson and especially Drew Brees are absolutely outstanding QBs! 

 

I'd put Brees right up there with Mahomes or Allen, he just came earlier.  He was an exceptional talent. Maybe not the runner, but who cares if you can throw the ball like Drew Brees.

 

Brady is clearly the best of all time--he couldn't run for crap.  Neither could Jim Kelly.

 

 

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2 hours ago, eball said:

 

Only three QBs who started all 17 games last season threw for fewer yards than Jones.  Only three threw fewer TDs.  He is a "middle of the pack" QB in just about every aspect of the game, which is fine.  He can have a nice little NFL career.  Gotta dream bigger with a 1st round QB.

 

Oh yeah, NE should have grabbed Justin Fields, right? 🙄🤨🙄

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6 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

This "conversation" is simply a poor attempt to dump on Jones (and the Pats) and pretend it's not by making generalized statements about physical traits being supreme.  That's nonsense.   What makes Allen an elite NFL QB isn't his arm strength but all his "intangibles", especially his drive, his processing ability, his decision making.  He came with the drive but he's had to work on his mechanics to improve his accuracy, he had to learn to read/recognize defenses, and he had to improve his decision making based on his experience.   Guess what, most QBs who have come into the NFL with great arms have never improved nearly as much as Allen has, which is, again, why he's special.

 

If Jones has as much drive and other intangibles as Allen, based off of his rookie season, Jones may very well become a successful NFL QB if he continues to work on his game.  He won't be in Allen's level but there aren't many QBs who are.

  This conversation is about A single throw where elite physical traits made all the difference. 

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15 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Sports without talking smack with friends and other teams fans is a vastly reduced experience, where would we be if no one ever busted a fins fan over their weak little QB? Or a jets fan about the tire fire that is that organization?? The freaking world would stop spinning on its axis, the space time continuum would collapse, I could end up the dictator of the planet earth…, and really, who wants that????  We are all better off talking some trash from time to time, it soothes the soul, much like a well mixed martini and a cigarette 🚬 

 

I'm old ... I've mellowed.

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On 4/9/2022 at 6:07 PM, The Dean said:

Has someone actually argued that arm strength doesn't matter at all? Has zero impact?  I know that arm strength is only ONE factor, but of course it matters. This seems like a straw man argument to me.

 

You're the one strawmanning, because no one's making the claim that people are saying arm strength doesn't matter AT ALL.  People (Patriot/Dolphin fans) are saying their QBs' lack of arm strength won't hold them back from being an elite QB and better than Josh Allen.  Basically that short accuracy (which they use to inflate completion % with checkdowns) is just that much more important than arm strength.  That or they just outright deny that Tua or McCorkle have weak arms, but that's another argument about delusion.

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