Better team comp - early to mid 2000's Colts?

[bigfootindy]

Update for this year… check the comp again…. Very, very strange.

 

I think a better comparison would be the early to mid 2000 Colts teams.  This team reminds me so much of that Colts team.  If you look at the playoff record they had before they won their Super Bowl, its eerily similar.  Taken from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/playoffs.htm and https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/playoffs.htm for reference:

 

Colts 2000 -> Lost in Wildcard round      Bills 2017 -> Lost in Wildcard round

Colts 2001 -> Missed playoffs      Bills 2018 -> Missed playoffs

Colts 2002 -> Lost in Wildcard round      Bills 2019 -> Lost in Wildcard round

Colts 2003 -> Went to AFC Championship, lost to NE      Bills 2020 -> Went to AFC Championship, lost to KC

Colts 2004 -> Lost to NE in divisional round      Bills 2021 -> Lost to KC in divisional round

 

Taking a look at what the future might hold, if past is prologue:

Colts 2005 -> Lost in divisional round to Pitt      Bills 2022 -> Lost in divisional round to Cinci

Colts 2006 -> Beat NE in AFC Championship, won Super Bowl      Bills 2023 -> Beat KC in AFC Championship, win Super Bowl?

 

I'd take that, wouldn't you? 😆

Edited January 23, 2023 by bigfootindy
Updated stats for 2022 season

[Motorin']

This is a pretty good comparison. There are obvious differences. But the conventional wisdom as to why the Colts couldn't get over the hump (until they did) was that their defense was too soft. 

 

But if Mahomes / Allen is the new Brady / Manning than Josh is the Payton to Mahomes Tom.

 

I'd like to skip a step in that progression and win it all next year please. 

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, bigfootindy said:

With a few days in the rear view mirror, and others talking about comparing this team to the late 80's Bills teams, I think a better comparison would be the early to mid 2000 Colts teams.  This team reminds me so much of that Colts team.  If you look at the playoff record they had before they won their Super Bowl, its eerily similar.  Taken from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/playoffs.htm and https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/playoffs.htm for reference:

 

Colts 2000 -> Lost in Wildcard round      Bills 2017 -> Lost in Wildcard round

Colts 2001 -> Missed playoffs      Bills 2018 -> Missed playoffs

Colts 2002 -> Lost in Wildcard round      Bills 2019 -> Lost in Wildcard round

Colts 2003 -> Went to AFC Championship, lost to NE      Bills 2020 -> Went to AFC Championship, lost to KC

Colts 2004 -> Lost to NE in divisional round      Bills 2021 -> Lost to KC in divisional round

 

Taking a look at what the future might hold, if past is prologue:

Colts 2005 -> Lost in divisional round to Pitt      Bills 2022 -> ??

Colts 2006 -> Beat NE in AFC Championship, won Super Bowl      Bills 2023 -> Beat KC in AFC Championship, win Super Bowl?

 

I'd take that, wouldn't you? 😆

 

There is some similarity. They were right there with the Pats but couldn't get past them. 

 

Our time will come.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

If I get to watch allen have a HoF career and win 1 super bowl, I'd be happy. I'd love for him to win multiple, but I'd absolute take that career path. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

I’d also be curious about comparing the relative coaching turnover between them then? Any coordinator changes over that stretch which helped or hurt in getting over the NE hump or were they fairly consistent? 

[Big Turk]

17 minutes ago, bigfootindy said:

With a few days in the rear view mirror, and others talking about comparing this team to the late 80's Bills teams, I think a better comparison would be the early to mid 2000 Colts teams.  This team reminds me so much of that Colts team.  If you look at the playoff record they had before they won their Super Bowl, its eerily similar.  Taken from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/playoffs.htm and https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/playoffs.htm for reference:

 

Colts 2000 -> Lost in Wildcard round      Bills 2017 -> Lost in Wildcard round

Colts 2001 -> Missed playoffs      Bills 2018 -> Missed playoffs

Colts 2002 -> Lost in Wildcard round      Bills 2019 -> Lost in Wildcard round

Colts 2003 -> Went to AFC Championship, lost to NE      Bills 2020 -> Went to AFC Championship, lost to KC

Colts 2004 -> Lost to NE in divisional round      Bills 2021 -> Lost to KC in divisional round

 

Taking a look at what the future might hold, if past is prologue:

Colts 2005 -> Lost in divisional round to Pitt      Bills 2022 -> ??

Colts 2006 -> Beat NE in AFC Championship, won Super Bowl      Bills 2023 -> Beat KC in AFC Championship, win Super Bowl?

 

I'd take that, wouldn't you? 😆

 

Winning A super bowl? Hell yes.

[RyanC883]

better comp at this point: 1990's Dolphins.  

[SectionC3]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is some similarity. They were right there with the Pats but couldn't get past them. 

 

Our time will come.

Agreed. It’s going to happen. I read Barnwell’s thesis that the Bills may have blown their best shot to reach the Super Bowl.  Give me a break.  Allen will have a long career, and I get that he’s at the tail of his rookie deal.  But things will happen to other teams, too.  Injuries, flukes, mutual assured destruction (e.g., Burrow takes out Herbert or Mahomes for us next year), etc.  We just need to keep grinding and to keep getting better. 

[bigfootindy]

3 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

Agreed. It’s going to happen. I read Barnwell’s thesis that the Bills may have blown their best shot to reach the Super Bowl.  Give me a break.  Allen will have a long career, and I get that he’s at the tail of his rookie deal.  But things will happen to other teams, too.  Injuries, flukes, mutual assured destruction (e.g., Burrow takes out Herbert or Mahomes for us next year), etc.  We just need to keep grinding and to keep getting better. 

 

That article drove me nuts!  Is it a blown opportunity?  Yeah, but with Allen we've got potentially a decade or more shots at it.  5 years ago we would have killed for one shot, would we not have?  Lets be honest, 15 years ago we would have.  Amazing how much expectations have changed

 

[MJS]

Great comp, honestly. The Chiefs are obviously the new Patriots. All the other good teams in the AFC will need to find ways to beat them in the playoffs if they want their own shot at a superbowl.

 

Fans are pretty down thinking that we lost our opportunity for a Superbowl, but there are more opportunities in the future for sure.

[SectionC3]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Great comp, honestly. The Chiefs are obviously the new Patriots. All the other good teams in the AFC will need to find ways to beat them in the playoffs if they want their own shot at a superbowl.

 

Fans are pretty down thinking that we lost our opportunity for a Superbowl, but there are more opportunities in the future for sure.

We’re going to get them.  Look.  Both coaching staffs screwed up royally at the end of a game for the ages.  I’m not saying that it shouldn’t hurt, and I’m not saying that we don’t have a number of areas in which to improve.  But they do, too.  The margin is thin.  We just have to be better next time.  And I’m confident that we will get there.  

 

I’d say the same thing if the field goal at the end of regulation hit an upright and bounced out, or if the last sequence of regulation was handled properly.  It’s literally a game of inches, and it sucks that several months of preparation was wasted by something eminently controllable at the end.  We just have to keep on grinding and good things will happen. 

[MJS]

4 minutes ago, bigfootindy said:

 

That article drove me nuts!  Is it a blown opportunity?  Yeah, but with Allen we've got potentially a decade or more shots at it.  5 years ago we would have killed for one shot, would we not have?  Lets be honest, 15 years ago we would have.  Amazing how much expectations have changed

 

Not to mention that the list of QB's to win the Superbowl on their rookie deal is much shorter than the list of QB's who did not. You have Mahomes and Wilson from the past decade or more and that's it. The rest were established QB's. Maybe you could include the Eagles because Wentz was on a rookie contract, but he didn't play at all that post-season. Foles did.

[Low Positive]

The difference in 2006 is that the the AFC Championship was played in Indianapolis. We need to get them at home next time.

[Bookie Man]

Or early-mid 90's 49ers. And Chiefs are our Cowboys.

[bigfootindy]

Obviously, heartbreaking, again.

 

Reposting this one, this is very, very weird for a comp.

[bills11]

On 1/26/2022 at 10:30 AM, bigfootindy said:

Update for this year… check the comp again…. Very, very strange.

 

I think a better comparison would be the early to mid 2000 Colts teams.  This team reminds me so much of that Colts team.  If you look at the playoff record they had before they won their Super Bowl, its eerily similar.  Taken from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/playoffs.htm and https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/playoffs.htm for reference:

 

Colts 2000 -> Lost in Wildcard round      Bills 2017 -> Lost in Wildcard round

Colts 2001 -> Missed playoffs      Bills 2018 -> Missed playoffs

Colts 2002 -> Lost in Wildcard round      Bills 2019 -> Lost in Wildcard round

Colts 2003 -> Went to AFC Championship, lost to NE      Bills 2020 -> Went to AFC Championship, lost to KC

Colts 2004 -> Lost to NE in divisional round      Bills 2021 -> Lost to KC in divisional round

 

Taking a look at what the future might hold, if past is prologue:

Colts 2005 -> Lost in divisional round to Pitt      Bills 2022 -> Lost in divisional round to Cinci

Colts 2006 -> Beat NE in AFC Championship, won Super Bowl      Bills 2023 -> Beat KC in AFC Championship, win Super Bowl?

 

I'd take that, wouldn't you? 😆

Spot on just made this comparison in the post game thread

[Nextmanup]

On 1/26/2022 at 11:47 AM, FrenchConnection said:

The difference in 2006 is that the the AFC Championship was played in Indianapolis. We need to get them at home next time.

Speaking of getting our opponent on home turf...

 

🤔

 

 

36 minutes ago, bigfootindy said:

Obviously, heartbreaking, again.

 

Reposting this one, this is very, very weird for a comp.

Since you seem to be good at this sort of thing, would you consider whipping up a chart showing head coach, OC, and DC names over the same period of time?

 

I could look each season up but I'm lazy. 

 

I wonder if Indy did a lot of coordinator change during that time---or none! 

 

I assume it was all Tony Dungy the whole time as HC too.

 

The similarities really are remarkable.  Thing is, the one doesn't have much to do with the other.  

[Man with No Name]

Tom Moore was Peyton's o coordinator his whole time in Indy. Peyton of course had a to of influence himself. very possibly more than any player ever. 

Indy was finally able to get over the hump because their defense gelled together towards the end of that season. Bob Sanders was finally healthy, and they had Mathis and Freeney who could get to the qb at will when the moment called for it. 

[Ray Stonada]

Scary accurate comparison. Feel like we will get a Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years with Allen and Diggs still playing great. We are not as far off as people think. Need better luck with injuries, some young talent, to get rid of some players who aren't truly dialed in.

 

Best of all, the next five years Allen will be 27, 28, 29, 30 and 31. Prime!

[The Firebaugh Kid]

13 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Scary accurate comparison. Feel like we will get a Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years with Allen and Diggs still playing great. We are not as far off as people think. Need better luck with injuries, some young talent, to get rid of some players who aren't truly dialed in.

 

Best of all, the next five years Allen will be 27, 28, 29, 30 and 31. Prime!

All the more reason to invest heavily into the offensive line and WR room. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

16 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Scary accurate comparison. Feel like we will get a Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years with Allen and Diggs still playing great. We are not as far off as people think. Need better luck with injuries, some young talent, to get rid of some players who aren't truly dialed in.

 

Best of all, the next five years Allen will be 27, 28, 29, 30 and 31. Prime!

 

 Might I suggest no more Thanksgiving Day games. Lost our best defensive player to ACL injuries back to back years in that game.

 

 

[Ray Stonada]

Just now, The Firebaugh Kid said:

All the more reason to invest heavily into the offensive line and WR room. 

 

Agree. To me it's the offensive line that's most needed. If we build that up Philly-style, a WR corps of Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Beasley and Brown plus Knox, Morris, Cook, Motor, Hines, and Gilliam looks pretty good to me. We don't really need McKenzie and Taiwan Jones made too many blunders to keep, IMO.

[Success]

On 1/26/2022 at 10:46 AM, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

If I get to watch allen have a HoF career and win 1 super bowl, I'd be happy. I'd love for him to win multiple, but I'd absolute take that career path. 

 

At this point, that's what it's all about for me - the "just one before I die."

 

I think I had grander ambitions last year, but after the last 2 exits, I'm realizing how hard this is gonna be. The AFC is stacked, and will be stacked for most of Allen's career.  We just have to break out of there one time.

 

[Buffalo03]

On 1/26/2022 at 10:43 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

There is some similarity. They were right there with the Pats but couldn't get past them. 

 

Our time will come.

Not if our players keep "running out of gas" in the divisional round

[MPL]

I don't know, guys. This one is close, too: 
 

Chargers 2004 -> Lost in Wildcard round   //   Bills 2017 -> Lost in Wildcard round

Chargers 2005 -> Missed playoffs  //    Bills 2018 -> Missed playoffs

Chargers 2006 -> Lost in divisional round  //  Bills 2019 -> Lost in Wildcard round

Chargers 2007 -> Went to AFC Championship, lost to NE    //  Bills 2020 -> Went to AFC Championship, lost to KC

Chargers 2008 -> Lost to Pitt in divisional round   //   Bills 2021 -> Lost to KC in divisional round

Chargers 2009 -> Lost in divisional round to Jets   //   Bills 2022 -> Lost in divisional round to Cinnci

Chargers 2010 -> Missed playoffs. // Bills 2023 -> Tune in to find out

Is Sean McDermott closer to Marty S or is he more like Tony Dungy? Is Josh Allen more likely to win a Super Bowl or have 9 children? 

 

[ngbills]

This stops at comparing those Indy OL to ours. Not even close.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

16 minutes ago, Success said:

 

At this point, that's what it's all about for me - the "just one before I die."

 

I think I had grander ambitions last year, but after the last 2 exits, I'm realizing how hard this is gonna be. The AFC is stacked, and will be stacked for most of Allen's career.  We just have to break out of there one time.

 

 

Big Ben won 2.  The Steelers beat manning and brady a total of once in those 2 seasons.  Brady knee year was one, and the other was Jake Plummer and the broncos in the AFC championship.  The colts lost to the chargers in one of the other ones. 

 

There's Herbert, Lawrence, Lamar, Watson, Tua as well... this isn't going to be easy any year.  I do think that instead of prioritizing 1st round byes, and home field advantage, we need to get our team focused and ready for playoffs.  This season was an absolute grind, and it ended up taking its toll.  Lots of stuff happened, major injuries, blizzards, game cancellations, and one of the wonkiest schedules I can remember.  

 

I think the major takeaway to me is being able to adjust who we are and what we do on both sides of the ball.  This needs to evolve during the year, as well as week to week.  They did this more effectively down the stretch last season and honestly it helped Allen reset and be more prepared for the playoffs.  

[Not Applicable]

Those Colts teams wildly underachieved and ultimately only got a title because NE uncharacteristically melted down against them in the AFCCG before a Super Bowl where they got to go against Rex Grossman. Lotta Dungy-McDermott similarities.