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NE Ran 40+ Times Yet only Won TOP by 2 minutes - How did the Bills Lose?


HardyBoy

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This narrative that the Bills defense didn't control the game, or should be embarrassed is crazy.

 

New England winning time of possession by only two minutes in a game they ran like 44 times for over 200 yards is really not impressive. How is that even possible? Bills just couldn't finish drives. Yes, some of that is great red zone scheme I'm sure, but the wind impacted a sure back shoulder td to Diggs late in the game that busted that scheme dead to rights.

 

Agree with McD here 100%, they should have won that game and it wasn't good coaching by the Pats, it was poor execution by the Bills o

and bad luck for the Bills due to weather in key moments. The long td to Diggs that he just couldn't track, that back shoulder where Diggs had the guy dead to rights, plus the missed fg by Bass...all three plays doomed by the wind.

 

Though I will say, I think Belichick just showed ATL how to not blow a 28-3 lead, while only having a 1 point lead!

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Honestly...we lost because we didnt throw the football until late in the game.

 

Allens arm pretty much held up in the wind like it was intended. That was one of the reasons he was drafted...but didnt use that advantage from the jump.

 

Did we actually think wed be able to run against the freakin pats D?

 

Like...where is the trust? Whose idea is it that we want to become more balanced without improving the offensive line?

 

We should be throwing the ball 45 times a game until the offensive line is improved.

 

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20 minutes ago, Ramza86 said:

Honestly...we lost because we didnt throw the football until late in the game.

Allens arm pretty much held up in the wind like it was intended. That was one of the reasons he was drafted...but didnt use that advantage from the jump.

Did we actually think wed be able to run against the freakin pats D?

Like...where is the trust? Whose idea is it that we want to become more balanced without improving the offensive line?

We should be throwing the ball 45 times a game until the offensive line is improved.

 

I'd be interested if you could construct an argument for that based upon specific plays or a drive.

 

Given that Allen threw a couple of incompletions to the R that drifted R (and one was nearly picked off) and that Allen in his presser pointed out that the wind affected the threw to Gabe Davis, I think it's a pretty hard argument to make.

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In a 10-14 game you can't do this:

 

- Fumble a handoff on 1st and 10 at the Opponent's 29 yard line, with the wind at your back.

- Go from 1st and goal at the Opponent's 6 yard line to 4th and 14 with the game on the line.

- Miss a 33 yard field goal.

- Drop several easy first downs.

- Drop touchdowns.

 

That's why we lost. Not because Bill Belichick is a genius. Not because we are a worse team than the Patriots.

We shot ourselves in the foot in a game where the weather favored the Patriots style of play.

 

Simple as that.

 

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To McDermott, it's very simple and it's pretty hard to argue.  We had 4 trips to the red zone and we only scored a TD on 1 of them, any points on half.

That has been a consistent problem for us this year.  In the Tennessee game, 2 of 5.  3 of 5 we win.

 

The reasons are varied - offensive penalties, sacks, drops, incompletions.  Offensive penalties have been killer.

 

But IMO it comes down to, we have the talent and we're kicking ourselves in the nuts.

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

In a 10-14 game you can't do this:

 

- Fumble a handoff on 1st and 10 at the Opponent's 29 yard line, with the wind at your back.

- Go from 1st and goal at the Opponent's 6 yard line to 4th and 14 with the game on the line.

- Miss a 33 yard field goal.

- Drop several easy first downs.

- Drop touchdowns.

 

That's why we lost. Not because Bill Belichick is a genius. Not because we are a worse team than the Patriots.

We shot ourselves in the foot in a game where the weather favored the Patriots style of play.

 

Simple as that.

 

Unfortunately, on a weather day, you can miss a 33 yd fieldgoal - which simply emphasizes your previous point.

Run for no Gain

9 yd sack

Incomplete pass to Knox

 

Of the 3, taking that 9 yd sack was killer.  Without it, it's a 24 yd fieldgoal, and maybe it's 3 points and we can kick another for the win the next drive.

 

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3 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

In a 10-14 game you can't do this:

 

- Fumble a handoff on 1st and 10 at the Opponent's 29 yard line, with the wind at your back.

- Go from 1st and goal at the Opponent's 6 yard line to 4th and 14 with the game on the line.

- Miss a 33 yard field goal.

- Drop several easy first downs.

- Drop touchdowns.

 

That's why we lost. Not because Bill Belichick is a genius. Not because we are a worse team than the Patriots.

We shot ourselves in the foot in a game where the weather favored the Patriots style of play.

 

Simple as that.

 

I think you nailed it on the head. My initial morning after reactions was all hate to our D. After really looking at the D performance this game 100% was not on that side of the Ball regardless what some people here or in the media are spewing. At the end of the day the Defense gave up 14points and most importantly 3 in the entire 2nd half., that is supposed to win us games. 

The entire O shoulders this loss. Our offense ran more offensive plays in the game versus the Pats Offense 57-49 and straight could not execute.

 

The Bills flat out need help on the Oline and our play makers beside Allen to make plays.

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As they say it only takes 1 or 2 plays that can completely change the out come of a game and to me those were the one if Diggs could have caught that ball in the end zone which he usually does but didn't this time & i don't hold that against him because he's usually money but game over .

 

Then if Knox could have caught his targets or if Bass could have predicted that huge gust of wind that blew his kick out of the uprights i think the game would have ended differently .

 

But all in all it was a lot closer than it actually was and i hate that they lost i still think they should use Gilliam or Williams more in the back field giving the running game some ass either blocking or just in short yardage . 

 

Motor is a keeper and i think is a back that needs more carries to get in a rhythm Moss is okay but i never liked the pick both our backs are small Moss is 207 lbs Motor is 203 lbs \, Gilliam is 244 lbs & Williams is 215 lbs i think especially as it has been said that the Bills need to be more physical one or both of these guys need to be utilized & only then will the run game be more productive despite some of the shortcomings of the O line . JMHO ...

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2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Unfortunately, on a weather day, you can miss a 33 yd fieldgoal - which simply emphasizes your previous point.

Run for no Gain

9 yd sack

Incomplete pass to Knox

 

Of the 3, taking that 9 yd sack was killer.  Without it, it's a 24 yd fieldgoal, and maybe it's 3 points and we can kick another for the win the next drive.

 

The other I'd add is Allen thinking he got them offside (he didn't; the NE player didn't cross the line) and then throwing a no-chance pass and complaining to the refs. That's the third time he's done something like that this year on a play in which he thought he got the guy to jump but didn't and then played like he could throw it away. 

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5 minutes ago, T master said:

As they say it only takes 1 or 2 plays that can completely change the out come of a game and to me those were the one if Diggs could have caught that ball in the end zone which he usually does but didn't this time & i don't hold that against him because he's usually money but game over .

 

Then if Knox could have caught his targets or if Bass could have predicted that huge gust of wind that blew his kick out of the uprights i think the game would have ended differently .

 

But all in all it was a lot closer than it actually was and i hate that they lost i still think they should use Gilliam or Williams more in the back field giving the running game some ass either blocking or just in short yardage . 

 

Motor is a keeper and i think is a back that needs more carries to get in a rhythm Moss is okay but i never liked the pick both our backs are small Moss is 207 lbs Motor is 203 lbs \, Gilliam is 244 lbs & Williams is 215 lbs i think especially as it has been said that the Bills need to be more physical one or both of these guys need to be utilized & only then will the run game be more productive despite some of the shortcomings of the O line . JMHO ...

 

I thought they did some effective runs with Gilliam as a lead blocker hmmm hmmm Jets game?  We showed a more varied run game to some success there, as I recall.  But Gilliam has been nursing an ankle injury, was questionable for the game, and they had him inactive - need two legs and feet to play FB effectively

 

"That guy on the practice squad" is always the fan favorite to "fix" the team, but the coaches see these guys every day.  I have to think if they felt the PS guy could play more effectively than the guy on the field, they'd get their shot.

 

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The other I'd add is Allen thinking he got them offside (he didn't; the NE player didn't cross the line) and then throwing a no-chance pass and complaining to the refs. That's the third time he's done something like that this year on a play in which he thought he got the guy to jump but didn't and then played like he could throw it away. 

 

Agreed.  That Must Stop.  There has to be a play, and it has to be "your next play, your best play". 

 

I wish our "hard hitting journalists" would ask McDermott or Daboll about this issue.

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if we knew before the game that we would give up only 14 points and 240 yards in TOTAL offense we would surely take those stats and the win probability would be surely favorable

the getting owned-embarassed question iis in the context of aseason-long question where TEN-IND-NE have owned the LoS against our D-line dont you think ? Why else would Pats only pass 3 times...and why leave 2-3 CBs in for the majority of snaps...against the heavy package of extra OL when you can sub based on that ?

Note that our captains, with the exception of Diggs who is not avail for interviews ?  do a good job of repping-answering...it was a tough-emotional loss and a zinger of question that may or may not asked properly...

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i think the run pass balance is fine, though sometimes we call a run at the worst moment. We should be using screens and qb runs for our "run game" in certain situations. 

 

We lose because we can't put the ball in the endzone. It's been comically bad this year. Oh, and the badly timed penalties. That's gotta be the coaching, right? Being prepared is the biggest thing BB's teams always have going for them. 

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30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'd be interested if you could construct an argument for that based upon specific plays or a drive.

 

Given that Allen threw a couple of incompletions to the R that drifted R (and one was nearly picked off) and that Allen in his presser pointed out that the wind affected the threw to Gabe Davis, I think it's a pretty hard argument to make.

 

Crass to follow my own post, but my intentions are good.  The OP I'm responding to hypothesizes we lost because we didn't start throwing until late in the game (this despite all the evidence that passes, even Allen's passes, were being effected and he  seemed to be throwing them with more "zip" which made them harder to haul in.

 

Here is a resource that may help (or hurt) the argument:
https://nflcdns.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/58696/BUF_Gamebook.pdf

 

There's a first half summary about page 6.  Note that "offensive plays" include punts, so you have to subtract that out to determine run pass balance.

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2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Considering once they started chucking the ball in the 4th against the wind they had their best two drives of the game…. Sure the wind had an affect on his passes but he was still able to demonstrate he can throw through it …. Why they waited to the 4th to get into passing mode is really infuriating and more proof McD was coaching scared of the weather. 

 

Can you demonstrate factually that they waited until the second half or the 4th quarter to "start chucking the ball"?

 

Also, what were the winds at the start of the game, vs. the start of the 4th Q?

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26 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To McDermott, it's very simple and it's pretty hard to argue.  We had 4 trips to the red zone and we only scored a TD on 1 of them, any points on half.

That has been a consistent problem for us this year.  In the Tennessee game, 2 of 5.  3 of 5 we win.

 

The reasons are varied - offensive penalties, sacks, drops, incompletions.  Offensive penalties have been killer.

 

But IMO it comes down to, we have the talent and we're kicking ourselves in the nuts.

 

 

 

 


I agree on the talent but I also the weakest area of play (Offensive Line and Running Back) are also prime examples why the Bills stall out toward the redzone.  Teams are keying on Allen to take away his running and flooding the endzone with defenders.  
 

Not having to defend against a threat of a run game out the team at a huge disadvantage.  the run calls near the goal line make sense, but the Bills can’t pull it off, even with a numbers advantage 

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18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I thought they did some effective runs with Gilliam as a lead blocker hmmm hmmm Jets game?  We showed a more varied run game to some success there, as I recall.  But Gilliam has been nursing an ankle injury, was questionable for the game, and they had him inactive - need two legs and feet to play FB effectively

 

"That guy on the practice squad" is always the fan favorite to "fix" the team, but the coaches see these guys every day.  I have to think if they felt the PS guy could play more effectively than the guy on the field, they'd get their shot.

 

Didn't Williams also do some really good things against the Fins in a fairly recent game if my memory serves me correct which does fail me quite often and yes i agree you do need both legs but the combo of backs they are using now isn't getting it done which of the 2 i like motor better his YPC average i believe is better .

 

Plus i think the run game need more ass which hopefully helps in the physicality aspect not only blocking but in short yardage & Williams is 215 lbs Berida is the speed but only 190 lbs and has shown that he can make some plays but IMHO i would sit Moss & use either of the 2 heavier backs to try to make a difference .

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45 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

In a 10-14 game you can't do this:

 

- Fumble a handoff on 1st and 10 at the Opponent's 29 yard line, with the wind at your back.

- Go from 1st and goal at the Opponent's 6 yard line to 4th and 14 with the game on the line.

- Miss a 33 yard field goal.

- Drop several easy first downs.

- Drop touchdowns.

 

That's why we lost. Not because Bill Belichick is a genius. Not because we are a worse team than the Patriots.

We shot ourselves in the foot in a game where the weather favored the Patriots style of play.

 

Simple as that.

 

Is mcd going to bench half the team now? Mckenzie should have been used that game not sure what the deal is that started this

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1 minute ago, T master said:

Didn't Williams also do some really good things against the Fins in a fairly recent game if my memory serves me correct which does fail me quite often .

 

Williams played in the season finale against the Dolphins, primarily in the 2nd half.  He looked good, but he was also playing against a shoulder-slumped team that was already heading for the bus, not the NE Patriots with the bit in their teeth.

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Just now, Billl said:

In your opinion, did McDaniels call better plays than Daboll, or did the Patriots simply execute better?

Both.

 

Our running plays are sooo vanilla and everyone watching the game knows when we are running the ball. I formation? run. Josh under center? 80% chance we're running it. There's no creativity to our run game. Patriots create space with their run game. They had a game plan. They put 6 offensive linemen on the field for a TON of snaps and dared the Bills to stop them.. they didn't... so yeah McDaniels called a better game than Daboll. If you don't think so, I think you're incredibly football illiterate. 

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4 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Brian Daboll

 

I feel certain that Daboll designed the play for Breida to mis-handle the exchange and fumble, for Knox to drop a pass that hit him in the numbers for a first down, for Diggs to fail to haul in a pass that hits him on the wrists,  for delay of game penalty, for offensive holding and false start penalties at bad times etc etc

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1 hour ago, HardyBoy said:

This narrative that the Bills defense didn't control the game, or should be embarrassed is crazy.

 

New England winning time of possession by only two minutes in a game they ran like 44 times for over 200 yards is really not impressive. How is that even possible? Bills just couldn't finish drives. Yes, some of that is great red zone scheme I'm sure, but the wind impacted a sure back shoulder td to Diggs late in the game that busted that scheme dead to rights.

 

Agree with McD here 100%, they should have won that game and it wasn't good coaching by the Pats, it was poor execution by the Bills o

and bad luck for the Bills due to weather in key moments. The long td to Diggs that he just couldn't track, that back shoulder where Diggs had the guy dead to rights, plus the missed fg by Bass...all three plays doomed by the wind.

 

Though I will say, I think Belichick just showed ATL how to not blow a 28-3 lead, while only having a 1 point lead!

we didn't score enough. Bass missed FG was killer

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3 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Our running plays are sooo vanilla and everyone watching the game knows when we are running the ball. I formation? run. Josh under center? 80% chance we're running it. There's no creativity to our run game. Patriots create space with their run game. They had a game plan. They put 6 offensive linemen on the field for a TON of snaps and dared the Bills to stop them.. they didn't... so yeah McDaniels called a better game than Daboll. If you don't think so, I think you're incredibly football illiterate. 

 

There's no need to call anyone who disagrees with you "incredibly football illiterate".  That doesn't add to the discussion here.

 

The thing is, in a couple of recent games (Jets I think) we actually DID show some creativity with the run game.  We also operated from under center in the passing game with play action, and used the threat of a run game to set up the pass.  Here's one article about the Jets game detailing how we did this:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-how-play-action-fakes-helped-unleash-josh-allen-bills-offense/article_0f127800-46d7-11ec-ab1e-b76cbdd50fb5.html

 

I don't know why Daboll didn't run more heavy formations OR try to create flow.  He did use 2 TE (with Sweeney) 22% of the time, 13 snaps, and an extra lineman (Bates) 7% of the time, 4 snaps.  Since we only had 55 offensive snaps that weren't punts, that's almost 1/3. 

 

IMHO Sweeney is ineffective - that play where Josh Allen sprawled on the turf then jumped up and tried to make a play?  That was Sweeney getting shoved back into him immediately.  I don't know why we didn't use him less, and Bates more, or go with an extra man more for better blocking, especially since we did run 25x (45%)

 

6 minutes ago, nucci said:

we didn't score enough. Bass missed FG was killer

 

Bass missed field goal was the result of the real killer - 1st and 6 on the NE 6, and neither a 1st down or a TD.  Run for no gain, 9 yd sack, and an incomplete pass to Knox. 

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1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

In a 10-14 game you can't do this:

 

- Fumble a handoff on 1st and 10 at the Opponent's 29 yard line, with the wind at your back.

- Go from 1st and goal at the Opponent's 6 yard line to 4th and 14 with the game on the line.

- Miss a 33 yard field goal.

- Drop several easy first downs.

- Drop touchdowns.

 

That's why we lost. Not because Bill Belichick is a genius. Not because we are a worse team than the Patriots.

We shot ourselves in the foot in a game where the weather favored the Patriots style of play.

 

Simple as that.

 

 

 

Ouch. 

 

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I feel certain that Daboll designed the play for Breida to mis-handle the exchange and fumble, for Knox to drop a pass that hit him in the numbers for a first down, for Diggs to fail to haul in a pass that hits him on the wrists,  for delay of game penalty, for offensive holding and false start penalties at bad times etc etc

 

 

Ow, dammit.

 

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To McDermott, it's very simple and it's pretty hard to argue.  We had 4 trips to the red zone and we only scored a TD on 1 of them, any points on half.

That has been a consistent problem for us this year.  In the Tennessee game, 2 of 5.  3 of 5 we win.

 

The reasons are varied - offensive penalties, sacks, drops, incompletions.  Offensive penalties have been killer.

 

But IMO it comes down to, we have the talent and we're kicking ourselves in the nuts.

 

 

 

 

Aaaargh!

 

This hurts so damn much, all this truth.

 

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

We made more mistakes.

 

 

Gyaaaah! This too!

Edited by Thurman#1
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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

That guy on the practice squad" is always the fan favorite to "fix" the team, but the coaches see these guys every day.  I have to think if they felt the PS guy could play more effectively than the guy on the field, they'd get their shot.

I question this based in the Vernon Butler example

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21 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I feel certain that Daboll designed the play for Breida to mis-handle the exchange and fumble, for Knox to drop a pass that hit him in the numbers for a first down, for Diggs to fail to haul in a pass that hits him on the wrists,  for delay of game penalty, for offensive holding and false start penalties at bad times etc etc

I feel very certain that the Diggs catch was incredibly easy, the Knox pass had no defenders making a great play, the refs called the delay of game early. 

Daboll called a great game.... wonderful. Our run plays were very well designed. 

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27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I feel certain that Daboll designed the play for Breida to mis-handle the exchange and fumble, for Knox to drop a pass that hit him in the numbers for a first down, for Diggs to fail to haul in a pass that hits him on the wrists,  for delay of game penalty, for offensive holding and false start penalties at bad times etc etc

The Knox drop early was atrocious though, when he would have gotten a first. 

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1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Considering once they started chucking the ball in the 4th against the wind they had their best two drives of the game…. Sure the wind had an affect on his passes but he was still able to demonstrate he can throw through it …. Why they waited to the 4th to get into passing mode is really infuriating and more proof McD was coaching scared of the weather. 

Exactly....Let your 250million dollar qb throw that ball all game long...if we did that then we win simple....100% coaches loss

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1 minute ago, warrior9 said:

The Knox drop early was atrocious though, when he would have gotten a first. 

 

Agree.  And on a windy night, Diggs is one of the best WR in the league, he can make circus one-hand catches, and he can't bring in a ball that hits him on the wrist?

 

I don't wholly disagree with the people who finger Daboll as the source of the problems.  I think he has been a source of the problems at times. 

 

I think when it comes to the run game, he has a "low interest rate", and honestly believed "who needs a run game when we have a Cadillac Passing System?"  He talks about Week-to-Week opponent matchups, but the Bills had effectively become a Spread Offense, with or without his conscious intent and without (to my understanding) one of the key ingredients that make a spread offense work to whit, a speed threat or two at WR to push the safeties deep. 

 

And for whatever reason, we simply have not been disciplined enough on penalties and mistakes (smaller ones like dropping catchable passes or sacks, or drive ending ones like big sacks or turnovers) to make a dink-n-dunk long drive work.  There has to be some coaching aspects there, in terms of how players are coached, and how practice is conducted. 

 

Bottom line: If you can't sustain a drive with a short passing game, you can't blow by defenders with an effective deep game, and you can't run, you can be stopped.  So lacking all those things, is in part on coaches and the FO.

 

But even so, we have had game plans good enough and play calling good enough THAT WE COULD HAVE WON EVERY GAME, without costly mistakes in execution by the players.

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6 minutes ago, Billever76 said:

Exactly....Let your 250million dollar qb throw that ball all game long...if we did that then we win simple....100% coaches loss

 

How many times did the Bills pass in the first half?  How many times did the Bills pass in the 2nd half?  Thanks. 

 

Bear in mind that one of the Bills first half drives was curtailed by a fumble, and one of them was short because it started on the NWE 14

 

Of the 2nd half passes, how many were visibly or by the player's account affected by wind?

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6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

How many times did the Bills pass in the first half?  How many times did the Bills pass in the 2nd half?  Thanks. 

 

Bear in mind that one of the Bills first half drives was curtailed by a fumble, and one of them was short because it started on the NWE 14

You are not seeing the entire picture...when the wind was in our face in the 2nd quarter we became safe and didnt trust our 250m dollar man to make the plays..we forced the run...now had our backs seen the multiple wide open cut back lanes i still think we win.....but id rather trust our qb to win the game than moss or singletary

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2 hours ago, HardyBoy said:

This narrative that the Bills defense didn't control the game, or should be embarrassed is crazy.

 

New England winning time of possession by only two minutes in a game they ran like 44 times for over 200 yards is really not impressive. How is that even possible? Bills just couldn't finish drives. Yes, some of that is great red zone scheme I'm sure, but the wind impacted a sure back shoulder td to Diggs late in the game that busted that scheme dead to rights.

 

Agree with McD here 100%, they should have won that game and it wasn't good coaching by the Pats, it was poor execution by the Bills o

and bad luck for the Bills due to weather in key moments. The long td to Diggs that he just couldn't track, that back shoulder where Diggs had the guy dead to rights, plus the missed fg by Bass...all three plays doomed by the wind.

 

Though I will say, I think Belichick just showed ATL how to not blow a 28-3 lead, while only having a 1 point lead!

 

They ran the ball every play but 3 out of 49 and had three long scoring drives. 
 

while we are on mistakes, the Bills lone TD was an absolute gift and lucky break, otherwise it’s 14-3. 
 

the defense stunk, the offense stunk and the coaching  stunk. 
 

Such A one dimensional offense should have been shut out by a competent nfl defense. They never forced NE to need to throw. That’s just as much on them as anyone. 
 

Puffing your chest about an nfl defense only allowing 14 point to Army’s offense is pathetic, well except army’s offense at least has an athlete at qb… Mac handed off on every down then pats 10 dominated bills 11

Edited by Over 29 years of fanhood
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