Etienne thought he was going to be a Bill

[Gugny]

On 5/22/2021 at 5:44 PM, DJB said:

 

 

Why does Ryan Talbot think this is interesting?  A lot of people thought the Bills would take him.  Click bait.

[Mr. WEO]

10 hours ago, Doc said:

 

I've heard that good offenses can't be helped by better players.  Heard it right here on this board, actually.

 

Imagine adding a WR, a RB AND a TE who could each score 11 or more TDs.  Those guys could turn a decent season into an MVP season!  A mediocre scoring Offense into the best in the league!

[DrDawkinstein]

22 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

There is zero frame of reference for that take.

 

Who are these organization changing RB's?

 

How many times did we have to watch the Saints face-plant in the playoffs to realize that the impact of an Alvin Kamara doesn't really make much of a difference?

 

Teams without great regular season RB play have been consistently winning SB's for decades now.    It's not important to have an exceptional RB.

 

 

We arent talking about "organization changing RBs". There are no such thing.

 

We already have our organization changing GM, and organization changing HC, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, our organization changing QB.

 

The skill players we surround him with just help make us that much more dangerous in an Offensive league. Especially a pass-catching RB like ETN. And expecially when the rest of our Offense is already built.

 

You write all these posts like folks are arguing ETN is some savior who is going to lift the Bills out of the dungeon.

 

Nah, son.

 

He's the cherry on top that helps take us from AFC Championship game level to Super Bowl level.

 

Again, you are still arguing from the perspective of the 20 year drought.

 

Need to put all those Paxton Lynches behind you and get with the Process.

 

Stay humble, stay hungry. 😘

 

[ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin]

On 5/22/2021 at 6:58 PM, Victory Formation said:

And if Etienne does end up being a Christian McCafferry talent, do you pay a RB $16M/yr when it comes to their second contract?

No, but you do get Christian McCaffrey talent lined up in the backfield with Josh Allen for 5 years. The offense becomes even more explosive and difficult to stop.

[Plano]

On 5/22/2021 at 6:31 PM, Doc said:

 

And if Rousseu  ends up a HOF DE and Etienne is out of the league after his rookie contract?

what if he shot you in the face?

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

'Etienne thought he was going to be a Bill'

Sitting there on Capitol Hill.

Edited May 24, 2021 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[djp14150]

On 5/22/2021 at 5:50 PM, Process said:

We saw in the Bills Embedded video we were trying to move up in the first. We'll probably never know who it was for and that's probably for the best. If Beane was trying to trade up for a RB I'd rather not know about it. 

ithink buffalo would have drafted Trevor Lawrence if he fell to their pick......

[starrymessenger]

If Beane was seriously trying to move up it was for J Phillips imo. Pass rush was a greater need than RB, even a very good one who could figure in the passing game. The Bucs RBs are not what beat Mahomes and the Chiefs, it was their D line. Beane wanted pass rushers so bad he drafted two with his first picks. I tend to think that was his focus all along. 

[McLovin392]

On 5/22/2021 at 6:19 PM, StHustle said:

 

How can you say this? If Etienne ends up a HOF and Rousseau is out of the league after his rookie contract would your view still hold water? A top level RB who can also line up wide and catch as good as a starting caliber slot receiver is more valuable than an average pass rusher any day.

See C.J. Spiller.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

We arent talking about "organization changing RBs". There are no such thing.

 

We already have our organization changing GM, and organization changing HC, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, our organization changing QB.

 

The skill players we surround him with just help make us that much more dangerous in an Offensive league. Especially a pass-catching RB like ETN. And expecially when the rest of our Offense is already built.

 

You write all these posts like folks are arguing ETN is some savior who is going to lift the Bills out of the dungeon.

 

Nah, son.

 

He's the cherry on top that helps take us from AFC Championship game level to Super Bowl level.

 

Again, you are still arguing from the perspective of the 20 year drought.

 

Need to put all those Paxton Lynches behind you and get with the Process.

 

Stay humble, stay hungry. 😘

 

 

 

 

I get that the drought made some of you very out of touch with how the league works now.

 

But even if you go back to the last Bills SB run adding a first round RB has NEVER raised any already championship-game-level team to a SB winning team. 

 

You gotta' go back to Tony Dorsett in 1977 to find a 1st round RB that put a team over the top.

 

Things have changed a bit since then.

 

Stay willful, say ignorant, Doc.  😘

 

 

[TheFunPolice]

I bet we were trying to move up for Paye when he fell that far. We almost got him as it was. 

[BADOLBILZ]

15 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

MCC not MCM, yes.  He’s unique and was absolutely worth the pick.  This is self evident.  No sane fan or FO would ever prefer Mostert to him, no matter what decade it is.  Bad example 

 

Bad example?

 

McCaffrey makes $16M per year.    

 

Mostert makes $3M.

 

Mostert is actually better than CMC on his 150 touches and then is fresh for the playoffs.    

 

I will take the latter and have a RB by committee approach......which you need anyway because RB's get hurt.........as evidenced by CMC missing most of last season after getting that 4 year $64M deal.

 

Then spend that $13M in cap space elsewhere.   Like maybe on the OT or at WR or at pass rusher or CB.    Edge/island positions where individual talent can have a greater impact on winning and losing.

 

And rather than throw the ball to a RB for 8 yards per grab I will use the modern approach and just throw it to my $7M slot guy Cole Beasley and have him put up nearly 1,000 yards at a much higher clip per reception.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

15 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Yep. Makes no sense. None. Just because our offense was elite last year shouldn’t mean you aren’t trying to make it even better.

 

 

Of course the offense should be trying to get better.........but RB isn't a position that warrants big invesement..........and first round picks are prime chips........it's the equivalent of a $15M-$20M per year chip in free agency...........you gotta' use that chip wisely.

 

Using one on a RB is just bad business.

 

And for the people like you and @DrDawkinstein...........get your heads out of the sand...........if the best case scenario played out and somehow Travis Etienne were to put up seasons like Alvin Kamara or Christian McCaffrey then they are NOT playing 5 years on that rookie deal.

 

You will get 3 years......and then you will have to give them a big 4-5 year extension or they will withhold services............so there goes your "draft one in the first every 5 years" plan.

[Mr. WEO]

34 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Bad example?

 

McCaffrey makes $16M per year.    

 

Mostert makes $3M.

 

Mostert is actually better than CMC on his 150 touches and then is fresh for the playoffs.    

 

I will take the latter and have a RB by committee approach......which you need anyway because RB's get hurt.........as evidenced by CMC missing most of last season after getting that 4 year $64M deal.

 

Then spend that $13M in cap space elsewhere.   Like maybe on the OT or at WR or at pass rusher or CB.    Edge/island positions where individual talent can have a greater impact on winning and losing.

 

And rather than throw the ball to a RB for 8 yards per grab I will use the modern approach and just throw it to my $7M slot guy Cole Beasley and have him put up nearly 1,000 yards at a much higher clip per reception.

 

 

McCaffery was a huge bargain in his first 3 seasons on a rookie contract (I already pointed that out).  He accounted for an astounding 66 TDs for that Offense in 2 years.  That's insane value by dollars and draft capital.   Defenses had to game plan around him.   For that team there is no other single edge/CB/OT (LOL)/WR who would have had anything close to the same impact on "winning and losing".

 

None of this is true for Mostert, who is a minimal receiving threat (at least his OC thinks so, with so few targets) and, as an extremely low mileage RB, couldn't stay on the field even as a 10-15 carry back.  124 touches and he was out of commission 3 different times last year.

 

Might as well yearn for CJ Spiller coming back.....

[DrDawkinstein]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

I get that the drought made some of you very out of touch with how the league works now.

 

But even if you go back to the last Bills SB run adding a first round RB has NEVER raised any already championship-game-level team to a SB winning team. 

 

You gotta' go back to Tony Dorsett in 1977 to find a 1st round RB that put a team over the top.

 

Things have changed a bit since then.

 

Stay willful, say ignorant, Doc.  😘

 

 

 

Classic Badol. When confronted with an alternative argument, ignore the details completely and double-down on the already accepted point you are unnecessarily reiterating in order to feel "right".

 

You could make your RB/Dorsett/Super Bowl argument about ANY position besides QB. Because it's vague and nonsensical and cant really be proven in a team game. It doesnt mean teams shouldn't be trying to improve other positions, especially when they already have a loaded roster at pretty much every other spot. Nor does it mean those other positions/draft picks/FAs didnt help put a team over the top.

 

None of what you are saying changes the fact that ETN is a major upgrade over our current RBs. And by making a major upgrade and adding an offensive weapon, it would help this team take another step forward.

 

You could make your same Dorsett argument for WR, but look at how much adding Diggs has helped our offense. And look at what we had to spend to get him.

 

ETN could have been a huge addition to this offense and could have helped us take a step forward. And would have been worth it in this window we are currently in.

 

No amount of arguing, or emojis will change that. It's fine if you want to say you don't think so, but it certainly isnt fact or hard set in any rule book.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by DrDawkinstein

[billsfan89]

On 5/22/2021 at 4:11 PM, Process said:

In poker if you make a call on the turn with a hand that has a 5% chance of winning, and get there on the river, did you make a good call?

 

Doesn't matter if ETN ends up being Barry Sanders and Rousseau another Aaron Maybin.

In the end the player’s careers will justify the decision making retroactively or call into question the decision making. But in terms of general philosophy it is always better to not trade up for a non-QB player and it is a better bet to take a chance on a pass rusher than a RB.

 

The Bills made the right decision on paper will it pan out in reality? I hope so but that’s TBD. I will say that it is always best to make the prudent move on paper as the odds are typically better in your favor.

[machine gun kelly]

5 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

'Etienne thought he was going to be a Bill'

Sitting there on Capitol Hill.

Hahahaha.

 

But maybe he was just thinking this....

The sad thing is half the people on this board have no idea why that was so funny.

 

I used to love schoolhouse rock as a tyqe 

[BillsFan1988]

On 5/23/2021 at 1:58 AM, Victory Formation said:

And if Etienne does end up being a Christian McCafferry talent, do you pay a RB $16M/yr when it comes to their second contract?

U pay him no prb. U don't take a player in the draft worrying about what your gonna have to pay him in his 2nd contract and if u knew u would have to pay him top dollar it makes that much more sense to select him no matter the position they play. 

[3rdand12]

On 5/23/2021 at 4:05 PM, Doc said:

 

After using 2-3rd round picks on RBs the prior 2 drafts, signing an UDFA who looked promising in his limited playing time, and adding a "homerun threat" in Breida in FA, I never took drafting ETN in the first seriously.

I think they were open minded. Guessing it was more about BPA "That fit the scheme "
 and will never know for sure

 But the Kid was worth consideration at 30

 or later

[BuffaloBill]

I just have trouble picking a RB in the 1st round - not worth it in today’s NFL.

[without a drought]

8 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

'Etienne thought he was going to be a Bill'

Sitting there on Capitol Hill.

He looks slow and has small hands. Glad the Bills didn't take him.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

18 minutes ago, without a drought said:

He looks slow and has small hands. Glad the Bills didn't take him.

Wouldn't take:

but they did have:

🤔

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Wouldn't take:

but they did have:

🤔

H.R. Puff’n’Stuff??!?

Edited May 25, 2021 by Coach Tuesday

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Mr. Puff’n’Stuff??!?

Yes, a few of us referred to Kroft as HR Pufnstuf, since his last name was similar to Sid and Marty Krofft's last name.  They were the creators of the show.  'He couldn't do a little, 'cause he couldn't do enough!'

[without a drought]

46 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Wouldn't take:

but they did have:

🤔

Well, who's your friend when things get rough?

[Coach Tuesday]

30 minutes ago, without a drought said:

Well, who's your friend when things get rough?

 

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

9 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

 

Word. 

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

H.R. Puff’n’Stuff??!?

Nah, that’s Dawkins today in practice.

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Classic Badol. When confronted with an alternative argument, ignore the details completely and double-down on the already accepted point you are unnecessarily reiterating in order to feel "right".

 

You could make your RB/Dorsett/Super Bowl argument about ANY position besides QB. Because it's vague and nonsensical and cant really be proven in a team game. It doesnt mean teams shouldn't be trying to improve other positions, especially when they already have a loaded roster at pretty much every other spot. Nor does it mean those other positions/draft picks/FAs didnt help put a team over the top.

 

None of what you are saying changes the fact that ETN is a major upgrade over our current RBs. And by making a major upgrade and adding an offensive weapon, it would help this team take another step forward.

 

You could make your same Dorsett argument for WR, but look at how much adding Diggs has helped our offense. And look at what we had to spend to get him.

 

ETN could have been a huge addition to this offense and could have helped us take a step forward. And would have been worth it in this window we are currently in.

 

No amount of arguing, or emojis will change that. It's fine if you want to say you don't think so, but it certainly isnt fact or hard set in any rule book.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not ignoring details.........I'm the one providing them against your vague and unsupported argument that Etienne is the missing piece that the Bills need to get thru the AFC and win the Super Bowl.

 

And you are making a straw man out of the Dorsett point...........I'm not the one expecting a rookie at ANY position to elevate the team immediately..........that's simply not a realistic expectation.

 

The only "details" of your argument are:

 

1. He'd be great right away........another Kamara or McCaffrey.

2. Giving him the ball a lot like those guys would only improve the offense.......regardless of any opportunities that takes away elsewhere.

3. Use him up for 5 years and then draft another in round 1.

 

None of those things are reasonable expectations based on anything close to "recent" history of the league.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

20 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

McCaffery was a huge bargain in his first 3 seasons on a rookie contract (I already pointed that out).  He accounted for an astounding 66 TDs for that Offense in 2 years.  That's insane value by dollars and draft capital.   Defenses had to game plan around him.   For that team there is no other single edge/CB/OT (LOL)/WR who would have had anything close to the same impact on "winning and losing".

 

None of this is true for Mostert, who is a minimal receiving threat (at least his OC thinks so, with so few targets) and, as an extremely low mileage RB, couldn't stay on the field even as a 10-15 carry back.  124 touches and he was out of commission 3 different times last year.

 

Might as well yearn for CJ Spiller coming back.....

 

 

No....c'mon bro......McCaffrey did not account for "an astounding 66 TD's"  in 2 years. 😆

 

He put up 32 over his first 3 seasons.............which you should expect from a RB taken in the top 10 of a draft.

 

He's the exception though...........not just in production but because he was a first round prospect as a WR as well.   

 

But in spite of all of that production the Panthers haven't been any good.  

 

If you can't pass the ball downfield and pressure the QB you aren't likely to be a SB contender...........and if you use a top 10 pick on a RB or sign one to a huge contract you are limiting your ability to acquire the players that do those more important things.

 

Mostert, on the other hand,  fits the profile of a lot of #1 RB's on SB winners.........a scheme specific player who little is invested in.

 

The fact that he's been SO exceptional when he has the ball the last two seasons is more of a bonus than a prerequisite.

[Thurman#1]

On 5/24/2021 at 1:19 AM, Buffalo619 said:

What are you? The body language football expert? 

 

 

Hah. Hardly, but you don't have to be a body language expert to know what's going on with these guys. They aren't playing poker, they're in their own draft room. Past Embedded versions have shown them be very happy and very disappointed and it was very very easily visible. As it was here.

[Thurman#1]

On 5/24/2021 at 9:57 PM, DrDawkinstein said:

 

We arent talking about "organization changing RBs". There are no such thing.

 

We already have our organization changing GM, and organization changing HC, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, our organization changing QB.

 

The skill players we surround him with just help make us that much more dangerous in an Offensive league. Especially a pass-catching RB like ETN. And expecially when the rest of our Offense is already built.

 

You write all these posts like folks are arguing ETN is some savior who is going to lift the Bills out of the dungeon.

 

Nah, son.

 

He's the cherry on top that helps take us from AFC Championship game level to Super Bowl level.

 

Again, you are still arguing from the perspective of the 20 year drought.

 

Need to put all those Paxton Lynches behind you and get with the Process.

 

Stay humble, stay hungry. 😘

 

 

 

Yeah, because look at the difference Edwards-Helaire made to the Chiefs as a pass-catching back when he was the cherry on top that took them from a Super Bowl championship to a ... well ... a Super Bowl loss.

 

Give the Chiefs a chance to go back in time and pick an OL or something else instead, and they'd do it in a second.

 

I totally agree with you about "organization changing RBs." 

 

But what the Bills need as a cherry was better work on both lines, IMO, and in pass rush in particular. Plus the WRs to stay healthy into the postseason.

 

 

On 5/24/2021 at 9:49 AM, whorlnut said:

So not sharing your “opinion” makes me and others “out-of-touch”.  How nice of you...

Exactly. To argue that having someone like Kamara, McCaffery, or even Etienne seems silly. They would automatically make this offense better than it is with what we currently have. 

 

 

Disagree. Did Edwards-Helaire make KC's offense better? Their run game was better the year before, and they still are mostly a passing offense, just like us. Did they throw a lot to E-H or did they just keep throwing to the receivers and Kelce? 

 

It simply is not automatic. Possible? Yeah. But far from automatic.

Edited May 25, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 5/23/2021 at 7:46 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

If he becomes McCaffery or Kamara I think you can justify that. The problem is anything short of that and I struggle to justify much more than $8m per. The number of running backs who are in that offensive weapon tier is very small. Etienne being good not great would almost certainly mean letting him walk after his rookie deal. 

 

Beane definitely said it again. He said it in the pre-draft presser. I think the interest in Etienne was real. Whether he was a guy they were trying to trade up for or whether they'd have taken him over Rousseau if he was there at #30 I am not sure. But I 100% believe they had interest in him. 

 

 

In the post-draft presser he cast doubt on it. Not to mention their lack of depression when he was picked in the Embedded video.

 

I'd agree they had interest. IMO their CBs they valued highly enough to pick there were gone, and if that had also been true for pass rusher and probably another group of four to six guys, and he was still there, they'd have taken him. I think there were legitimate ways for it to fall that they'd have been picking him if they weren't trading back.

 

I greatly doubt they'd have traded up for him.

 

Agreed with your first paragraph. People on here are comparing McCaffrey and Etienne and that's not a particularly reasonable comparison. Etienne didn't go #8 as McCaffrey did, and that's for good reason.

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

In the post-draft presser he cast doubt on it. Not to mention their lack of depression when he was picked in the Embedded video.

 

I'd agree they had interest. IMO their CBs they valued highly enough to pick there were gone, and if that had also been true for pass rusher and probably another group of four to six guys, and he was still there, they'd have taken him. I think there were legitimate ways for it to fall that they'd have been picking him if they weren't trading back.

 

I greatly doubt they'd have traded up for him.

 

 

I don't know if they'd have traded up for him, that is impossible to know for sure. We know they had interest in trading up for someone and it was rumoured that the team they had particularly targeted getting ahead of was Jacksonville. I strongly doubt that was for an edge rusher because the Jags have Allen and Chaisson it is probably their strongest spot. That doesn't mean it was definitely to get ahead of Jacksonville or that it was definitely for Etienne, but I certainly don't think the people coming to that conclusion are making a massive leap. It is at least plausible based on that things we know and the things that have been reported.  

 

I didn't see Beane cast any doubt on the need for a home run hitting back in the post-draft presser. What he said was the Bills do not have a "need" at running back. That is consistent with how he articulated it earlier in the offseason. But he did say in the pre-draft presser that he had no philosophical aversion to a back in round 1 but it had to be someone who gave them the dimension they didn't have. Nor should that surprise anyone. In his time in the front office in Caroline they drafted three first round running backs and they signed all those guys to decently sized second contracts too. I suspect from his background Brandon Beane does not subscribe to the "dime a dollar" theory. He has spent two decent assets in 3rd round picks on them here too and we know (because Beane told us) in the Singletary case even tried to trade up for him but couldn't seal a deal and in the end he dropped to them anyway. 

 

Again, no idea whether Etienne would have been the pick if he was on the board at #30 as well as Rousseau. The fact is he wasn't. I said before the draft I thought #30 was down to corner, edge or Etienne. I still believe that and I agree with you that by #30 the corners were gone, indeed Beane said as much in the post-draft presser. In a scenario where Rousseau wasn't there and Etienne was but the rest of the picks were the same.... then I think there is a better than average chance he'd have been the pick. 

[DrDawkinstein]

59 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, because look at the difference Edwards-Helaire made to the Chiefs as a pass-catching back when he was the cherry on top that took them from a Super Bowl championship to a ... well ... a Super Bowl loss.

 

Give the Chiefs a chance to go back in time and pick an OL or something else instead, and they'd do it in a second.

 

I totally agree with you about "organization changing RBs." 

 

But what the Bills need as a cherry was better work on both lines, IMO, and in pass rush in particular. Plus the WRs to stay healthy into the postseason.

 

Disagree. Did Edwards-Helaire make KC's offense better? Their run game was better the year before, and they still are mostly a passing offense, just like us. Did they throw a lot to E-H or did they just keep throwing to the receivers and Kelce? 

 

It simply is not automatic. Possible? Yeah. But far from automatic.

 

I'm not comparing ETN to CEH in KC's offense. Or their freak injury streak that dismantled their OL. Which, btw, Beane is far more ready for with his OL depth.

 

I'm comparing to the 2020 Bills.

 

I'm comparing him to what we've seen out of Singletary and Moss in the Bills' offense. And I see major room for improvement over those guys. Moss still has some potential, but I'm just about done with Singletary.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

No....c'mon bro......McCaffrey did not account for "an astounding 66 TD's"  in 2 years. 😆

 

He put up 32 over his first 3 seasons.............which you should expect from a RB taken in the top 10 of a draft.

 

He's the exception though...........not just in production but because he was a first round prospect as a WR as well.   

 

But in spite of all of that production the Panthers haven't been any good.  

 

If you can't pass the ball downfield and pressure the QB you aren't likely to be a SB contender...........and if you use a top 10 pick on a RB or sign one to a huge contract you are limiting your ability to acquire the players that do those more important things.

 

Mostert, on the other hand,  fits the profile of a lot of #1 RB's on SB winners.........a scheme specific player who little is invested in.

 

The fact that he's been SO exceptional when he has the ball the last two seasons is more of a bonus than a prerequisite.

 

Yeah not sure here I got 66 lol.  It's 39 in first 3 years.

 

Yes he is the exception, but for the Panthers, his value is massive.  Not his fault they don't have a QB the past 3 years.  He IS the Offense.

 

I'm not arguing you should sign a RB top 10.  I'm saying you can't put Mccaffrey and a guy like Mostert in the same discussion regarding RB value.  They are orders of magnitude apart.  Even Matt Breida was more valuable than Mostert as a RB who caught passes for SF in '18-'19.  

[DrDawkinstein]

14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The only "details" of your argument are:

 

1. He'd be great right away........another Kamara or McCaffrey. Nope, NEVER said that at all. I only expect him to be much better than Singletary and Moss

2. Giving him the ball a lot like those guys would only improve the offense.......regardless of any opportunities that takes away elsewhere. Nope, NEVER said that at all. I only want him to get Singletary and Moss's touches.

3. Use him up for 5 years and then draft another in round 1. Yep, and it's just a loose plan regarding not paying a RB a 2nd contract, and the ability to afford using a higher pick on a RB when you are a perennial playoff team.

 

None of those things are reasonable expectations based on anything close to "recent" history of the league. All of those are reasonable expectations given the level of prospect and player ETN has been vs Singletary and Moss.

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't know if they'd have traded up for him, that is impossible to know for sure. We know they had interest in trading up for someone and it was rumoured that the team they had particularly targeted getting ahead of was Jacksonville. I strongly doubt that was for an edge rusher because the Jags have Allen and Chaisson it is probably their strongest spot. That doesn't mean it was definitely to get ahead of Jacksonville or that it was definitely for Etienne, but I certainly don't think the people coming to that conclusion are making a massive leap. It is at least plausible based on that things we know and the things that have been reported.  

 

I didn't see Beane cast any doubt on the need for a home run hitting back in the post-draft presser. What he said was the Bills do not have a "need" at running back. That is consistent with how he articulated it earlier in the offseason. But he did say in the pre-draft presser that he had no philosophical aversion to a back in round 1 but it had to be someone who gave them the dimension they didn't have. Nor should that surprise anyone. In his time in the front office in Caroline they drafted three first round running backs and they signed all those guys to decently sized second contracts too. I suspect from his background Brandon Beane does not subscribe to the "dime a dollar" theory. He has spent two decent assets in 3rd round picks on them here too and we know (because Beane told us) in the Singletary case even tried to trade up for him but couldn't seal a deal and in the end he dropped to them anyway. 

 

Again, no idea whether Etienne would have been the pick if he was on the board at #30 as well as Rousseau. The fact is he wasn't. I said before the draft I thought #30 was down to corner, edge or Etienne. I still believe that and I agree with you that by #30 the corners were gone, indeed Beane said as much in the post-draft presser. In a scenario where Rousseau wasn't there and Etienne was but the rest of the picks were the same.... then I think there is a better than average chance he'd have been the pick. 

 

 

He also said in the post-draft PC, "We were never targeting a running back or anything like that. I think that got overblown, it sounds like." That's not absolute proof, but it's pretty indicative. Certainly means they weren't trying to trade up for Etienne.

 

Logic said that he'd said in the pre-draft presser that we didn't have a home-run hitter on the roster. I said I didn't think he'd said that after we got Breida. I was correct. He said in the pre-draft PC that neither of the top two guys were home run hitter, not that we didn't have one. In fact, we do have one. I don't know how many snaps he'll get, but we've got one.

 

Precisely, "I don't think either one of our backs are home run hitters." He said "either" which is not used for three or more. 

 

Logic also said, "Beane literally said that if a running back added something to the room that they didn't already have, they'd absolutely take him." Again, no, he didn't say that. "They'd absolutely take him"? No, he never said that, nor would he. He seemed to indicate he might consider them in that situation, but he absolutely did not say either of those things Logic said he did, and you seemed to back him up on.

 

Guess we'll have to disagree on what they'd have done if Rousseau wasn't there and Etienne was. I'd bet that the way things fell, if Rousseau was gone but Etienne was there but everything else was the same that they'd have been grabbing one of probably Joe Tryon, Elijah Moore, Landon Dickerson, Christian Barmore or Teven Jenkins. Maybe Onwuzurike or Eichenberg as well. 

 

I can definitely see situations where they'd have taken him, but the way it fell, it sure looks doubtful to me.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I'm not comparing ETN to CEH in KC's offense. Or their freak injury streak that dismantled their OL. Which, btw, Beane is far more ready for with his OL depth.

 

I'm comparing to the 2020 Bills.

 

I'm comparing him to what we've seen out of Singletary and Moss in the Bills' offense. And I see major room for improvement over those guys. Moss still has some potential, but I'm just about done with Singletary.

 

 

You're not comparing them? Why not? You absolutely should. They were picked within a couple of spots of each other, or would have been if the Bills had taken Etienne at 30. Both are serious passing threats. Both (if you consider Etienne possibly going to Buffalo) went or would have gone to teams built around sensational QBs throwing to excellent WR corps who throw a very large percentage of plays.

 

The situations were very parallel indeed.

 

And injuries happen. It wasn't all that freaky. It happened to all our WRs. It's not that weird that it happened to their two tackles.

 

You see major room for improvement over Singletary and Moss? More reason for comparison. KC obviously saw major room for improvement over their 2019 RB room, which was Damien Williams, Darrel Williams and the aging LeSean McCoy. And yet they got actually fewer run yards after drafting Edwards-Helaire, and about the same amount of passing yards to RBs.

 

And being done with Singletary is nuts, I think.

 

The Bills were one of the two or three worst teams in the league last year in terms of yards before contact and yet Singletary still managed 4.4 YPC. There's every indication that with better blocking he'll once again be a very productive guy.

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

1. He'd be great right away........another Kamara or McCaffrey. Nope, NEVER said that at all. I only expect him to be much better than Singletary and Moss

2. Giving him the ball a lot like those guys would only improve the offense.......regardless of any opportunities that takes away elsewhere. Nope, NEVER said that at all. I only want him to get Singletary and Moss's touches.

3. Use him up for 5 years and then draft another in round 1. Yep, and it's just a loose plan regarding not paying a RB a 2nd contract, and the ability to afford using a higher pick on a RB when you are a perennial playoff team.

 

None of those things are reasonable expectations based on anything close to "recent" history of the league. All of those are reasonable expectations given the level of prospect and player ETN has been vs Singletary and Moss.

 

I am trying to not Wade to deep in here, but let’s get some perspective on this.

 

Lets assume you are giving him most of the touches that went to Singletary and Moss.  Their average per carry (with all our complaining) was top 30 in the league at 4.4 and 4.3.  So if we dare to assume that ETN is significantly better (which is unproven and only a hope) and assume he runs like Kamara for an average of 5.0 YPC - a huge assumption.  
 

If every carry that was given to the 2 starters was given to ETN instead and he was on par with Kamara as a top 10 RB - you get close to 160 more yards at the end of the season or about 9 yards more per game.  ETN versus Moss and Singletary gets you less than 1 first down as a RB.

 

If you do the same exercise with receiving yards - you give him every touch by Singletary and Moss and you make the huge assumption that ETN produces similar to Kamara.  You have ETN at the top end getting about 6 more receiving yards per game than Singletary and Moss.

 

So if we max out ETN to mirror Kamara (and I don’t believe he will produce anything close) we get maybe 1 first down a game.  Also Kamara produced significantly less per touch than a true WR like Beasley, Diggs, Brown, or Davis.  So if we end up taking touches in the passing game away from WRs to ETN because he is a better receiver than Singletary and Moss - then you are actually creating a situation where we produce less offense than 2020 because you are taking the ball from great WRs and give it to a RB.

 

Look ETN at 30 would have been fine, but as you see with Jacksonville- they are basically treating him like a WR.  He was never going to get the touches in the running game - so basically what we are seeing is he is great for a team with weak WRs, but on a team with a strong passing game and 4 excellent WRs - he provides little.

 

Could he help the Bills win more games maybe, but the data suggests that the difference he brings is most games would not be the difference between beating teams and losing - that rides on Josh Allen’s arm.  He brings a bit of support to the offense and maybe a change of pace, but even if he produces at an incredible rate (Alvin Kamara type averages) he produces 15 more yards than Singletary and Moss if every touch went his way and since they play by committee- really less than half of that is reasonable - you are looking at him producing and additional 8 yards a game.

 

 

Edited May 25, 2021 by Rochesterfan