A brutally honest look at the Bills' playoff games

[All_Pro_Bills]

14 hours ago, Arm of Harm said:

1) Defensive coaching. The defensive coaching staff did a good job overall against the Ravens. The same was not true of the playoff games against the Colts or the Chiefs. I understand that Frank Reich and Andy Reid are two of the best offensive minds in the game. But make no mistake: the Bills' defensive coaching staff was beaten like a rented mule in both those games. Reich's 4th down call is a good example of that. That would have been an easy touchdown, had the Colts players executed. They didn't, and turned the ball over on downs. Periodic execution failures by Colts players obscured just how badly the Bills' defensive coaching staff was dominated by Reich and his offensive coaches. The Chiefs didn't have that problem. Of the 7 Chiefs drives which didn't end in kneel downs, 5 resulted in touchdowns, and another went for a field goal. The total dominance of the Chiefs offense over the Bills' defense was alone sufficient to determine the outcome of the game. Defensive coaching might be this team's single greatest weakness.

 

Solution: Above all, this idea of "soft zone" needs to die. The idea of "let them move the chains with the underneath stuff" needs to no longer be tolerated. In place of these things, I'd like to see more defensive gameplans like the one this coaching staff prepared against the Patriots a year or two ago. I'm thinking of the game where Brady and the Patriots offense were totally stymied. The Patriots won that game anyway due to a blocked punt and the total domination of the Patriots defense over the Bills offense. 

 

3) Edmunds. Edmunds had a good game against the Ravens, but did not play well against the Colts or the Chiefs. Great physical tools, but struggles with the mental side of the game. Also I recently read that opposing QBs have a 130 QB rating when targeting Edmunds. People are talking about letting Milano walk in order to have the cap space to re-sign Edmunds, or to allow an OLB position to open up for Edmunds. I don't understand the logic of letting go of a guy who's produced (Milano) in order to keep a guy who hasn't (Edmunds). Edmunds has had three years here for the light to go on. At this point we need to see him for what he produces, not for what his potential is or what his draft status was. 

 

Solution: re-sign Milano. Wait until next year to do anything about upgrading Edmunds, because the Bills don't have the picks or cap space to address the problem this year.

 

 

A couple comments on coaching and Edmunds:

 

Defensive Coaching: All defenses schemes have an objective of forcing the offense into making mistakes.  Its a matter of how much pressure or emphasis they have on forcing these errors.  Ir might be something like missing a blocking assignment or the QB throwing the ball into some disguised coverage or maybe forcing a lot of turnovers.  Another element is defensive players making positive plays, winning their one-on-one battles, outplaying their opponent.  The problem with the soft zone scheme is that its almost totally dependent on the offense making mistakes rather than your defensive guys making a play.  The idea is I'm going to make you effectively execute 10 to 12 plays in a row without making a mistake and I'm betting you can't do that combined with a low-risk defensive approach that avoids making the big mistakes on defense.  Sort of like a low risk, low reward scenario.

The problem is no soft zone strategy is going to ever beat an elite offensive executed effectively.  That's what the Chiefs did.  The Bills defense as set up and with the defensive roster are not capable of playing an aggressive pressure defense.  If you want to get more aggressive your going to have to change not only the scheme but also the players.  That takes time so I don't expect much to happen here in the short term except trying to plug in some players the coaching staff and front office think are upgrades.  But the improvements, if any, will be incremental and not some extreme improvement into next season.  My assessment is the Bills are not going to consistently win against a team like the Chiefs that has great talent and great execution unless they alter their base defensive strategy along with targeting players with a different set of skills to match a more aggressive style.  At this point its a case of sitting back and letting them pick you apart.  Swapping out one or two players on defense isn't going to change that outcome unless the Bills offense upgrades to the point of matching KC point for point and makes it something like a last team to have the ball wins situation.

 

Edmunds:   This is a tough one.  One problem is the Bills use nickel most of the time as their base defense, 4-2-5.  So really there is no MLB in a classic sense under a 4-3-4.  I agree with other posters that Edmunds might be a better fit under a 3-4 system.  But the Bills aren't going to change their entire defense to accommodate one player.  So either Edmunds adapts and becomes proficient at playing in this system or he doesn't.  In 3 years he has had his struggles.  One other possibility I haven't seen discussed here is to trade him to a needy 3-4 team.  Maybe get back a 2nd rounder and use that draft choice elsewhere or to draft a MLB that might be a better fit.  I propose this because for some reason the league values his play more than most here as evidenced by his selection to the Pro Bowl.  His trade value at this time would seem high.  Better to move a player a year early than a year to late when his stock might be a lot lower.  The risk is that its highly likely you have to watch him excel in that 3-4 with his new team and you'll look like an idiot for the next 5 to 8 years.  The other approach is to give him another year and hope the light goes on.  To me that seems unlikely to happen.  Maybe the coaching staff needs to use more 4-3 and drop the emphasis on the 4-2-5 nickel which has its own issues.  The other thing is what to do with Milano.  He's important to the Bills defense but I'm hard pressed to consider him a top LB relative to the other players in the league.  Is he even in the top 5 of players at his position?  I don't know.  But the issue is paying a lot vs. finding a comparable replacement in the short term.  The other possibility here is to use the one year franchise tag and give yourself another year to decide what to do longer term.  

Edited January 28, 2021 by All_Pro_Bills

[BillsFanSD]

You lost me at the Christian Wade part.

[Eastport bills]

21 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Jerry Hughes has six sacks in the last four playoff games and 3 in the last 2. I don't think he's the problem.  As for Edmunds in coverage, he's kind of set up to fail vis-a-vis passer rating. He plays the short center zone, and if a QB has time, is accurate, and has a good TE to throw to who knows how to adjust his route, the receiver will be open because Edmunds will have guessed already and the receiver can adjust. A better pass rush, and those completions result in 2-3 picks per season. As @MAJBobby has written, Will LB is the easiest position to play and MLB is arguably the hardest. It's tough to compare Milano and Edmunds because of that. Moreover, I think people forget how young Edmunds is. He is literally 22 and has off-the-charts physical talent. Be patient with him. If he doesn't pan out in the next couple of years, sure, cut the cord. 

In full agreement, Edmunds must continue to bulk up and get better. His ceiling is high. A better d-line would help him immeasurably. Milano is not worth the price,because he also can't overcome limited pass rush and is a bit fragile. 

[ganesh]

On 1/28/2021 at 5:00 AM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

The Bills philosophy is we're going to wear you down with our depth and keep rotating solid, but not great players out there.  In 2018 and 2019 it worked, this year not nearly as well.

It worked in the regular season but not in the playoffs.  We have to have the talent to play with the big boys

On 1/29/2021 at 1:41 AM, Eastport bills said:

In full agreement, Edmunds must continue to bulk up and get better. His ceiling is high. A better d-line would help him immeasurably. Milano is not worth the price,because he also can't overcome limited pass rush and is a bit fragile. 

Agreed. Unless Milano signs a 1-year  prove it deal, I don't see him being re-signed

[Rebel101]

On 1/27/2021 at 5:25 PM, Arm of Harm said:

1) Defensive coaching. The defensive coaching staff did a good job overall against the Ravens. The same was not true of the playoff games against the Colts or the Chiefs. I understand that Frank Reich and Andy Reid are two of the best offensive minds in the game. But make no mistake: the Bills' defensive coaching staff was beaten like a rented mule in both those games. Reich's 4th down call is a good example of that. That would have been an easy touchdown, had the Colts players executed. They didn't, and turned the ball over on downs. Periodic execution failures by Colts players obscured just how badly the Bills' defensive coaching staff was dominated by Reich and his offensive coaches. The Chiefs didn't have that problem. Of the 7 Chiefs drives which didn't end in kneel downs, 5 resulted in touchdowns, and another went for a field goal. The total dominance of the Chiefs offense over the Bills' defense was alone sufficient to determine the outcome of the game. Defensive coaching might be this team's single greatest weakness.

 

Solution: Above all, this idea of "soft zone" needs to die. The idea of "let them move the chains with the underneath stuff" needs to no longer be tolerated. In place of these things, I'd like to see more defensive gameplans like the one this coaching staff prepared against the Patriots a year or two ago. I'm thinking of the game where Brady and the Patriots offense were totally stymied. The Patriots won that game anyway due to a blocked punt and the total domination of the Patriots defense over the Bills offense. 

 

2) Defensive line. McDermott and Beane have made a considerable investment in the defensive line, in terms of both salary cap space and draft picks. The defensive line was dominated by a (very good) Colts OL, as well as by the Chiefs OL. I get that both Rivers and Mahomes tend to get rid of the ball quickly. But during the course of the regular season the defensive line also failed to justify the very considerable resource investment made in it.

 

Solution: draft a pass rusher. Also sign or draft a 1 tech DT. Any existing DL who isn't contributing to the level of his salary needs to either be cut outright, or else given a massive pay cut. None of Hughes, Addison, or Murphy should make next year what they made this year. The world will keep spinning even if we lose all three.

 

3) Edmunds. Edmunds had a good game against the Ravens, but did not play well against the Colts or the Chiefs. Great physical tools, but struggles with the mental side of the game. Also I recently read that opposing QBs have a 130 QB rating when targeting Edmunds. People are talking about letting Milano walk in order to have the cap space to re-sign Edmunds, or to allow an OLB position to open up for Edmunds. I don't understand the logic of letting go of a guy who's produced (Milano) in order to keep a guy who hasn't (Edmunds). Edmunds has had three years here for the light to go on. At this point we need to see him for what he produces, not for what his potential is or what his draft status was. 

 

Solution: re-sign Milano. Wait until next year to do anything about upgrading Edmunds, because the Bills don't have the picks or cap space to address the problem this year.

 

4) Offensive line. During the regular season it was normal for the offensive line to do a good job of pass protection, but a bad job of run blocking. On a running play all it takes is one OL to lose his individual battle, and then you have a defender who's not where he's supposed to be. That will often spoil the play. The OL seemingly took its level of play down a notch or two during the playoffs. The run blocking was bad as usual. But the pass protection was often bad as well, especially against the Colts and Chiefs.

 

Solution: Upgrade at least one OG spot. Ideally both. The Bills should not be afraid to use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on an OG. You could easily justify using both those picks on OGs. (And pray that at least one of those picks works out better than Cody Ford!)

 

5) Running back. To a certain extent I think the Bills' RBs are getting blamed for the offensive line failures. That said, there's also some truth to the argument that the Bills don't have a speed guy at that position, and would benefit from one. However, the Bills do not have the draft picks or salary cap space to make a major investment here. Those picks need to be invested on the offensive and defensive lines.

 

Solution:  Christian Wade (rugby guy) has been on the roster two full years now. Surely he has learned the game of football and the Bills' offense. Unless some better option comes along, they should sign him to the regular season roster, and sprinkle him in on returns, trick plays, and occasional running plays.

 

6) Tight end. With Buffalo's five best WRs all injured for the Chiefs game, it would have been nice to have had a good TE to pick up some of the slack. While Knox has his moments he is not an upper tier TE.

 

Solution: The Bills probably don't have the resources to address this problem this offseason, so they might need to wait a year to deal with this. Ideally Knox improves significantly during that year, and this problem goes away.

 

 

Agree with all of it. I’d have liked to see Frazier go. His scheme against the Ravens was perfect tho. It did hurt us losing star and we need to cut all that dead FA weight from last year on the DLine. And the entire OL needs reworked as well. We need to be able to get pressure with a 4 man rush. And Edmunds isnt a solution to anything. Milano is key. Edmunds is being named to pro bowls is mind boggling. The only thing he does well is chase after someone who got past him. He’s made a few big stops but someone who has all the physical gifts should be making triple the # of plays he’s making. I don’t remember any picks and hardly any sacks. A pro bowl MLB should have both. Plus he’s not even better then Milano in coverage. I will really look at McBeane sideways if they give more money to Edmunds and don’t sign Milano. ***** I will look at McBeane sideways for not signing Milano. But I’ve already done that. In Beanes press conference he said we’d love to have him back but he has earned the right to see what he can get in FA. Which means they can’t pay him what he is going to make. We should franchise tag him until next year when hopefully the cap goes back up.

[JerseyBills]

I only read 2 paragraphs and will read it all, I just had to say , we did a masterful job vs Bal

 

They were the hottest team in the game coming into that game. Averaging 33 ppg. We held em to 3!

[Philly McButterpants]

Really glad some of you are not in charge of running the team...  Christian Wade is the answer?

 

Re: the Defense - I'm not sure why they flip-flop on philosophy.  The Ravens game was all about taking away what they do best.  Heck, even the first Chiefs game was about that.

 

The AFCCG soft zone was just mind boggling.

 

Tag Milano with the Franchise or Transition tag to keep him a year.  Figure out what to do with Edmunds (Brain transplant or cut ties seem to be the only two viable options - face reality:  all the potential in the world is NOT going to make him develop good instincts.  He's not good), and invest a 2nd rounder in a guy to play opposite Tre.  

Edited January 30, 2021 by Philly McButterpants

[Turf Toejam 34]

On 1/28/2021 at 3:11 PM, Eastport bills said:

In full agreement, Edmunds must continue to bulk up and get better. His ceiling is high. A better d-line would help him immeasurably. Milano is not worth the price,because he also can't overcome limited pass rush and is a bit fragile. 

I believe that continuing to predict Edmunds "high ceiling" and pointing to his youthfulness doesn't hold water.   This was his third year in the system.    If the light bulb isn't going on by now, when will it?   By using a high pick for MLB, it is obvious that they are looking for a player with many of the capabilities of a Luke Kuechly---a player that in the third year in McDermott's defense had 153 total tackles, 3 sacks, 12 passes defended, 1 interception, and 1 forced fumble.     More bulk isn't going to solve what is going on inside his head.   The TE reception stats for 2020 were atrocious, and right now there's nothing on the horizon to make it any better.

[Eastport bills]

5 hours ago, Turf Toejam 34 said:

I believe that continuing to predict Edmunds "high ceiling" and pointing to his youthfulness doesn't hold water.   This was his third year in the system.    If the light bulb isn't going on by now, when will it?   By using a high pick for MLB, it is obvious that they are looking for a player with many of the capabilities of a Luke Kuechly---a player that in the third year in McDermott's defense had 153 total tackles, 3 sacks, 12 passes defended, 1 interception, and 1 forced fumble.     More bulk isn't going to solve what is going on inside his head.   The TE reception stats for 2020 were atrocious, and right now there's nothing on the horizon to make it any better.

Still can't give up on a guy,22, on rookie contract, who averages well over 100 tackles a season. MLB on a team that goes to AFC championship, must have had many good games. His speed and wingspan are impressive. Maybe it's the coaching. Frazier and co. , we're the problem against KC. 

[Turf Toejam 34]

7 hours ago, Eastport bills said:

Still can't give up on a guy,22, on rookie contract, who averages well over 100 tackles a season. MLB on a team that goes to AFC championship, must have had many good games. His speed and wingspan are impressive. Maybe it's the coaching. Frazier and co. , we're the problem against KC. 

Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane.    I am sure that Frazier didn't view Kelce as a threat.....he's not understanding the job.

[GunnerBill]

What needs to "die" is the constant references to "soft zone" as being a problem without any analysis of how often the Bills are actually in soft zone (which we won't get because most who parrot that phrase don't understand what it means) and what their results are vs other types of coverage. 

[Mango]

On 1/27/2021 at 6:27 PM, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Duke Williams enters chat...

Could you imagine how unstoppable this offense would be with Gibran Hamden slinging the rock to dudes like Da’Rick and Duke. Throw Christian Wade in the backfield, can you you say super bowl?

Beane, asleep at the wheel again...

Edited January 31, 2021 by Mango

[Arm of Harm]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

What needs to "die" is the constant references to "soft zone" as being a problem without any analysis of how often the Bills are actually in soft zone (which we won't get because most who parrot that phrase don't understand what it means) and what their results are vs other types of coverage. 

 

Well then, perhaps you'd like to provide some of that analysis?

[Nextmanup]

On 1/28/2021 at 7:54 AM, BillsFanSD said:

You lost me at the Christian Wade part.

The Christian Wade part was a very minor point in the context of the whole, but everyone keeps harping on about it.

I guess it's supposed to be funny?

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

Edmunds will never thrive unless we turn him outside.  Problem is that's impossible with this 4-2-5. He'll never have the Kuechly instincts of a true MLB. And the youth card doesn't fly anymore. Tremaine's fate will be determined by what we do with Milano? 

[Dukestreetking]

On 1/27/2021 at 8:09 PM, Richard Noggin said:

Plus he {Edmunds} could probably still put on 10-15 LBs and be a scary specimen. 

 I'm obviously cherry-picking from many well-argued, even rich-dense comments. Some I agree, some I'm not so sure about.

 

But this: definitely.

[HOUSE]

This was brutal.....

[SoCal Deek]

16 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Edmunds will never thrive unless we turn him outside.  Problem is that's impossible with this 4-2-5. He'll never have the Kuechly instincts of a true MLB. And the youth card doesn't fly anymore. Tremaine's fate will be determined by what we do with Milano? 

Agreed! I just got the stomach to rewatch the tape of the KC game. Edmunds was literally LOST out there. It was like we were playing down a man. You can’t just run around taking up space and then pile on the play after the catch has been made. Mahomes played him like a fiddle. Edmunds simply cannot play the middle! 

[PrimeTime101]

On 1/27/2021 at 5:25 PM, Arm of Harm said:

1) Defensive coaching. The defensive coaching staff did a good job overall against the Ravens. The same was not true of the playoff games against the Colts or the Chiefs. I understand that Frank Reich and Andy Reid are two of the best offensive minds in the game. But make no mistake: the Bills' defensive coaching staff was beaten like a rented mule in both those games. Reich's 4th down call is a good example of that. That would have been an easy touchdown, had the Colts players executed. They didn't, and turned the ball over on downs. Periodic execution failures by Colts players obscured just how badly the Bills' defensive coaching staff was dominated by Reich and his offensive coaches. The Chiefs didn't have that problem. Of the 7 Chiefs drives which didn't end in kneel downs, 5 resulted in touchdowns, and another went for a field goal. The total dominance of the Chiefs offense over the Bills' defense was alone sufficient to determine the outcome of the game. Defensive coaching might be this team's single greatest weakness.

 

Solution: Above all, this idea of "soft zone" needs to die. The idea of "let them move the chains with the underneath stuff" needs to no longer be tolerated. In place of these things, I'd like to see more defensive gameplans like the one this coaching staff prepared against the Patriots a year or two ago. I'm thinking of the game where Brady and the Patriots offense were totally stymied. The Patriots won that game anyway due to a blocked punt and the total domination of the Patriots defense over the Bills offense. 

 

2) Defensive line. McDermott and Beane have made a considerable investment in the defensive line, in terms of both salary cap space and draft picks. The defensive line was dominated by a (very good) Colts OL, as well as by the Chiefs OL. I get that both Rivers and Mahomes tend to get rid of the ball quickly. But during the course of the regular season the defensive line also failed to justify the very considerable resource investment made in it.

 

Solution: draft a pass rusher. Also sign or draft a 1 tech DT. Any existing DL who isn't contributing to the level of his salary needs to either be cut outright, or else given a massive pay cut. None of Hughes, Addison, or Murphy should make next year what they made this year. The world will keep spinning even if we lose all three.

 

3) Edmunds. Edmunds had a good game against the Ravens, but did not play well against the Colts or the Chiefs. Great physical tools, but struggles with the mental side of the game. Also I recently read that opposing QBs have a 130 QB rating when targeting Edmunds. People are talking about letting Milano walk in order to have the cap space to re-sign Edmunds, or to allow an OLB position to open up for Edmunds. I don't understand the logic of letting go of a guy who's produced (Milano) in order to keep a guy who hasn't (Edmunds). Edmunds has had three years here for the light to go on. At this point we need to see him for what he produces, not for what his potential is or what his draft status was. 

 

Solution: re-sign Milano. Wait until next year to do anything about upgrading Edmunds, because the Bills don't have the picks or cap space to address the problem this year.

 

4) Offensive line. During the regular season it was normal for the offensive line to do a good job of pass protection, but a bad job of run blocking. On a running play all it takes is one OL to lose his individual battle, and then you have a defender who's not where he's supposed to be. That will often spoil the play. The OL seemingly took its level of play down a notch or two during the playoffs. The run blocking was bad as usual. But the pass protection was often bad as well, especially against the Colts and Chiefs.

 

Solution: Upgrade at least one OG spot. Ideally both. The Bills should not be afraid to use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on an OG. You could easily justify using both those picks on OGs. (And pray that at least one of those picks works out better than Cody Ford!)

 

5) Running back. To a certain extent I think the Bills' RBs are getting blamed for the offensive line failures. That said, there's also some truth to the argument that the Bills don't have a speed guy at that position, and would benefit from one. However, the Bills do not have the draft picks or salary cap space to make a major investment here. Those picks need to be invested on the offensive and defensive lines.

 

Solution:  Christian Wade (rugby guy) has been on the roster two full years now. Surely he has learned the game of football and the Bills' offense. Unless some better option comes along, they should sign him to the regular season roster, and sprinkle him in on returns, trick plays, and occasional running plays.

 

6) Tight end. With Buffalo's five best WRs all injured for the Chiefs game, it would have been nice to have had a good TE to pick up some of the slack. While Knox has his moments he is not an upper tier TE.

 

Solution: The Bills probably don't have the resources to address this problem this offseason, so they might need to wait a year to deal with this. Ideally Knox improves significantly during that year, and this problem goes away.

 

 

well well.. where to start... I know... Your solutions I bolded one at a time...

D'Line our DE's produced better in years but that is because of the failure at the DT position.. We need a big one tech DT as you said and as double teams are more drawn to the interior of the line, the DE's will be able to be more versatile. We are over paying to many DT that produce little to nothing and thats the issue.

 

LBS ya need to get over this idea that we are moving Edmunds... Milano is going to test the market and will be long gone. When failure starts at the D'Line, dare I say this phrase... there is a trickle down effect that hurts the rest of the defense.. starts on the line.. Line makes LBS look bad and so on.

 

RB's Wade? really? the guy is 29 years old I think 30 by the time next season starts and you think Wade is the answer? no... lol

 

to much wrong and not enough right about this post... sorry 

[Dukestreetking]

6 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

This was brutal.....

I nearly always agree w your comments and/or p**s my pants at your impeccable comedic content & timing.

 

But, in this case...you gotta give @Arm of Harm credit for precisely laying out a problem followed directly by her/his proposed solution. Unusual here. Even if you don't agree....well done, imv.

 

Hell, reads exactly like a go/no-go mission brief. Makes me feel like blasting "Let the Bodies Hit the Floor" (h/t @chknwing334) fr a thread far, far away.

 

(Maybe you were speaking of thread more generally??)

[BigDingus]

One thing you have to remember about the lines is that Star sat out due to COVID (as well as CB EJ Gaines) and Cody Ford was out due to injury.

Get these 2 guys back, and both the lines improve quite a bit.

Also, if you think the Bills won't take a RB in the draft, I think you're in for a surprise. I'm almost certain a good one will fall to them (as several good ones fell late last year) and snag one.

[Arm of Harm]

On 1/28/2021 at 7:37 AM, All_Pro_Bills said:

A couple comments on coaching and Edmunds:

 

Defensive Coaching: All defenses schemes have an objective of forcing the offense into making mistakes.  Its a matter of how much pressure or emphasis they have on forcing these errors.  Ir might be something like missing a blocking assignment or the QB throwing the ball into some disguised coverage or maybe forcing a lot of turnovers.  Another element is defensive players making positive plays, winning their one-on-one battles, outplaying their opponent.  The problem with the soft zone scheme is that its almost totally dependent on the offense making mistakes rather than your defensive guys making a play.  The idea is I'm going to make you effectively execute 10 to 12 plays in a row without making a mistake and I'm betting you can't do that combined with a low-risk defensive approach that avoids making the big mistakes on defense.  Sort of like a low risk, low reward scenario.

The problem is no soft zone strategy is going to ever beat an elite offensive executed effectively.  That's what the Chiefs did.  The Bills defense as set up and with the defensive roster are not capable of playing an aggressive pressure defense.  If you want to get more aggressive your going to have to change not only the scheme but also the players.  That takes time so I don't expect much to happen here in the short term except trying to plug in some players the coaching staff and front office think are upgrades.  But the improvements, if any, will be incremental and not some extreme improvement into next season.  My assessment is the Bills are not going to consistently win against a team like the Chiefs that has great talent and great execution unless they alter their base defensive strategy along with targeting players with a different set of skills to match a more aggressive style.  At this point its a case of sitting back and letting them pick you apart.  Swapping out one or two players on defense isn't going to change that outcome unless the Bills offense upgrades to the point of matching KC point for point and makes it something like a last team to have the ball wins situation.

 

Edmunds:   This is a tough one.  One problem is the Bills use nickel most of the time as their base defense, 4-2-5.  So really there is no MLB in a classic sense under a 4-3-4.  I agree with other posters that Edmunds might be a better fit under a 3-4 system.  But the Bills aren't going to change their entire defense to accommodate one player.  So either Edmunds adapts and becomes proficient at playing in this system or he doesn't.  In 3 years he has had his struggles.  One other possibility I haven't seen discussed here is to trade him to a needy 3-4 team.  Maybe get back a 2nd rounder and use that draft choice elsewhere or to draft a MLB that might be a better fit.  I propose this because for some reason the league values his play more than most here as evidenced by his selection to the Pro Bowl.  His trade value at this time would seem high.  Better to move a player a year early than a year to late when his stock might be a lot lower.  The risk is that its highly likely you have to watch him excel in that 3-4 with his new team and you'll look like an idiot for the next 5 to 8 years.  The other approach is to give him another year and hope the light goes on.  To me that seems unlikely to happen.  Maybe the coaching staff needs to use more 4-3 and drop the emphasis on the 4-2-5 nickel which has its own issues.  The other thing is what to do with Milano.  He's important to the Bills defense but I'm hard pressed to consider him a top LB relative to the other players in the league.  Is he even in the top 5 of players at his position?  I don't know.  But the issue is paying a lot vs. finding a comparable replacement in the short term.  The other possibility here is to use the one year franchise tag and give yourself another year to decide what to do longer term.  

 

Great post. A few thoughts:

 

In the playoffs, the Bills defense got eaten alive by Rivers and Mahomes. They did a great job against the Ravens though. Perhaps that's because unlike those other two teams, the Ravens aren't designed to pick you apart with short, underneath passes? Whatever the reason might be, during the 2020 regular season the Bills defense allowed more pass completions to TEs than any other defense in the league. That is clear and compelling evidence the Bills defense was getting eaten by the underneath stuff.

 

That's either a scheme problem or a player problem. Rivers and Mahomes very often got the ball out quickly. If the QB gets rid of the ball in a hurry, the defensive line obviously cannot be blamed for the outcome of the play. Nor is the defensive line the primary culprit for the insanely high (130+) passer rating QBs achieved when targeting Edmunds during the regular season. Were there times when Edmunds got picked on after the QB got away with holding onto the ball a long time? Absolutely. But, you don't surrender a near-perfect passer rating to opposing QBs unless you're giving them the underneath stuff pretty much all the time, even on plays when the QB gets the ball out quickly. Even if the Bills upgraded their DL to become one of the best in the league, that would not fix the defense's tendency to give up the underneath stuff.

 

Edmunds' surrendering a near-perfect passer rating to opposing QBs is either an Edmunds problem or a scheme problem. Edmunds definitely has the physical tools to be good in coverage, but does he have the information processing ability to not get fooled? Does the scheme he's in give him the best opportunity to make plays and shut down opposing receiving targets? If this scheme is asking him to make too many decisions, and making it easier for him to be fooled by opposing offensive coordinators, would a different defensive scheme help him avoid getting fooled so that he could get maximum benefit from his great athletic ability? 

 

There's a reason why I focused more on the defensive scheme and on Edmunds in this post than I did on the defensive line. Is it accurate to say that the defensive line needs another pass rusher, and also needs a 1 tech DT? Yes. But piling all the blame for the defense at the doorstep of the defensive line would be cheap, easy, and at the end of the day wrong. The obviousness of the defensive line's problems shouldn't distract us from the fact that this defense has other, even more serious problems, starting with the defensive scheme.

[BuffaLoko]

On 1/27/2021 at 5:30 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I agree with most of your observations, but not sure I like your solutions all that much!

 

#1 Defensive Coaching.  I agree with the bend but don't break concept is what they are playing allowing them to move the chains.  But they've played the same the past two seasons with much better success.  This year though they were bending much more and even breaking more frequently was the issue.  So think the concept might still be fine, but need better players to reduce the frequency of successful drives by the opponent.

 

#2 Defensive Line is a big issue, but drafting a pass rusher may help the defense in maybe 2023, but not next season.  This team is poised next year to make a deep run as IMO next years schedule is more forgiving so this is their chance.  For that reason would rather they sign an actual star FA edge rusher.  I'm fine with getting rid of Butler and Addison to pay this new guy with.  Think I would keep Jefferson though as can play multiple positions and is still only 26 I believe.  The Bills have used a fair amount of draft resources on the Dline as they've drafted; Oliver, Johnson, Epinosa, and Phillips, plus as stated Jefferson is only 26 so it's not like they've ignored this position.

 

The Bills philosophy is we're going to wear you down with our depth and keep rotating solid, but not great players out there.  In 2018 and 2019 it worked, this year not nearly as well.

 

#3 and #4  Agree with waiting a year on Edmunds and drafting an O-lineman pretty high, 2nd round sounds good.  A lot there will also depend on what happens between Morse, Feliciano, and Williams IMO likely only two of the three will be back, which two not certain.  Of the three would prefer Morse being the odd man out.

 

#5  Running Back I don't think Christian Wade is the answer as big of a mess as the running game was this year.  I think I'd go with Williams ahead of him, but from a fan perspective wouldn't want to count on either being the solution for next season.  Obviously the coaches have seen much more of those two, and maybe they think one of them is ready, or they feel the biggest issue was run blocking.  Would make me nervous if Wade or even Williams is their best answer.

 

#6 Tight End is like drafting an edge rusher.  You could draft a TE who in 4 years will be better than Kerce and Gronk combined, but counting on him as a rookie to look better than Knox is a stretch. TE is one of the harder positions to learn.  For those reasons would give Knox another year, though is likely they will want/need at least a #2 TE to replace Kroft, unless they feel Sweeney is ready for that role.  But that's risky with the heart condition he had as could just as easily be medically retired.

I know you stated this as your opinion only, but have you seen the 2021 schedule? the one I saw in OneBillsLive, in an interview with G. Cosell (spell), done by Tasker and Brown, seemed pretty steep in terms of SOS, to me... I will look for it in a post from a few days ago, and see other source. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by BuffaLoko
Wrong name in source...

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

48 minutes ago, BuffaLoko said:

I know you stated this as your opinion only, but have you seen the 2021 schedule? the one I saw in OneBillsLive, in an interview with Gumble by Tasker and Brown, seemed pretty steep in terms of SOS, to me... I will look for it in a post from a few days ago, and see other source. 

 

So now you're really going to think I'm crazy, admittedly I was thinking about this over a month ago, at that point, didn't think Tampa would make it to the SB. 

 

Having said all that, for a couple months I've felt that 2021 would be the Bills best shot at winning the SB as their schedule is the easiest.  They play the NFC south and AFC south.  Throw in Pitt and KC too.  Yes they play at KC and at Tampa, but really feel one of these years Brady's age is going to catch up with him, it somewhat already has as he's really not the reason physically they are in the SB, it's more the defense.  While it certainly didn't happen this year with KC, typically there's always a SB hangover to deal with also.  I worry about Miami in particular if they get Watson. 

 

But other than Tampa, the rest of the NFC south doesn't worry me too much, same with AFC south, Tenn and maybe Indy if they solve the QB spot could be tough, but both have some questions  Not all that worried about Pitt and Grandpa Ben. 

 

So lets assume they lose to Tampa and KC, add all that up could see them going 12-4 to 13-3 again.  If they can't the last thing I want to blame it on is the schedule.

 

So yes I have seen the schedule and that's the part that I'm excited about!

[BuffaLoko]

7 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

So now you're really going to think I'm crazy, admittedly I was thinking about this over a month ago, at that point, didn't think Tampa would make it to the SB. 

 

Having said all that, for a couple months I've felt that 2021 would be the Bills best shot at winning the SB as their schedule is the easiest.  They play the NFC south and AFC south.  Throw in Pitt and KC too.  Yes they play at KC and at Tampa, but really feel one of these years Brady's age is going to catch up with him, it somewhat already has as he's really not the reason physically they are in the SB, it's more the defense.  While it certainly didn't happen this year with KC, typically there's always a SB hangover to deal with also.  I worry about Miami in particular if they get Watson. 

 

But other than Tampa, the rest of the NFC south doesn't worry me too much, same with AFC south, Tenn and maybe Indy if they solve the QB spot could be tough, but both have some questions  Not all that worried about Pitt and Grandpa Ben. 

 

So lets assume they lose to Tampa and KC, add all that up could see them going 12-4 to 13-3 again.  If they can't the last thing I want to blame it on is the schedule.

 

So yes I have seen the schedule and that's the part that I'm excited about!

hahaha...Everything happened because I replied in a very late mode, but I definitively agree with you, specially with your take thta your (as well as mine) point of view, is affected by timelines. The same than you (and maybe no one in TBD), saw TB12 in just another SB! 🙄, time a few moths ahead will maybe tell us, that i.e. if he loses this Sunday, he might hang the (All Star<9 experiment with TBY once and for all, or look his age. The intriguing idea for me, regarding our KCY match, is that it would very likely define who gets the bye in AFC... thanks for replying... 

Edited February 2, 2021 by BuffaLoko

[Arm of Harm]

3 hours ago, BigDingus said:

One thing you have to remember about the lines is that Star sat out due to COVID (as well as CB EJ Gaines) and Cody Ford was out due to injury.

Get these 2 guys back, and both the lines improve quite a bit.

Also, if you think the Bills won't take a RB in the draft, I think you're in for a surprise. I'm almost certain a good one will fall to them (as several good ones fell late last year) and snag one.

 

I personally have been disappointed in Cody Ford, and don't consider him a starting quality player. His run blocking is bad. Often loses his battle, thus spoiling the play.

 

In defense of your post, you could point out that during the playoffs not only did the OL fail to run block well, but more often than not it also failed to provide good pass protection. A very disappointing performance by the line. Might Ford have gotten dominated less completely in pass protection than the offensive linemen we actually played? Yeah, that's possible.

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Arm of Harm

[Hapless Bills Fan]

23 hours ago, BigDingus said:

One thing you have to remember about the lines is that Star sat out due to COVID (as well as CB EJ Gaines) and Cody Ford was out due to injury.
Get these 2 guys back, and both the lines improve quite a bit.

 

From what Beane said it sounded as though the Bills are "all in" on Cody Ford

 

When I've watched film of run plays where Cody Ford was in there at guard this season, it wasn't pretty.  Now maybe he was hurt, but all the injuries on report are lower body and this looked like a hand placement issue.

 

And evidently the Bills don't think he's the answer at RT, or they wouldn't have put Williams there and moved Ford over. 

 

23 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Also, if you think the Bills won't take a RB in the draft, I think you're in for a surprise. I'm almost certain a good one will fall to them (as several good ones fell late last year) and snag one.

 

Nothing would surprise me, but....