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3rd and long Defense


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The Ravens game was very nerve wrecking for me to watch. Especially when the Bills have opposing offense in third and long situations. The Bill always prefer to play it safe and rush 3 or 4 and drop everyone back into coverage. I don't know about you guys, but can the coaches please stop and throw that defense out. How many times do we have to watch the quarterback hang back there and have all day to find a soft spot  for a completion in this defense. How many times we have to watch our linebackers and corners sink to deep, miss tackles and be indiscipline and try to jump a route. Why are we not aggressive in these situations and force the QB to throw the ball quicker , allowing us to hopefully come up and make a tackle. This terrible defense cost us the game last year against Houston and almost cost us last week. How do we give up a third and eighteen to a running quarterback? Go get him the same way we have been doing all night. Fortunately for us the Chiefs third down and long  defense is just as bad as ours. Just watch last week Browns defense to confirm. Which ever team wins this area of the game will be going to Super Bowl. I just hope our coaches don't play conservative and have Mahomes convert a long third down to keep a drive alive to beat us. How do we fix our third down defense and not give us heart attack. I am at the point where I am surprise if the other team does not convert a third and long against us. 

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1 minute ago, kirkwoodus13 said:

The Ravens game was very nerve wrecking for me to watch. Especially when the Bills have opposing offense in third and long situations. The Bill always prefer to play it safe and rush 3 or 4 and drop everyone back into coverage. I don't know about you guys, but can the coaches please stop and throw that defense out. How many times do we have to watch the quarterback hang back there and have all day to find a soft spot  for a completion in this defense. How many times we have to watch our linebackers and corners sink to deep, miss tackles and be indiscipline and try to jump a route. Why are we not aggressive in these situations and force the QB to throw the ball quicker , allowing us to hopefully come up and make a tackle. This terrible defense cost us the game last year against Houston and almost cost us last week. How do we give up a third and eighteen to a running quarterback? Go get him the same way we have been doing all night. Fortunately for us the Chiefs third down and long  defense is just as bad as ours. Just watch last week Browns defense to confirm. Which ever team wins this area of the game will be going to Super Bowl. I just hope our coaches don't play conservative and have Mahomes convert a long third down to keep a drive alive to beat us. How do we fix our third down defense and not give us heart attack. I am at the point where I am surprise if the other team does not convert a third and long against us. 

 

Not sure the Ravens game is the one you want to use as your standard for poor defense....

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Yes it is because if 24 does not make that play, then go back and look at the amount of times the defense had the ravens in third and long situation on that one drive alone and could not get of the field. hopefully we don't pay the price against KC. I want a defense that the offense automatically turns and hand the ball off those situations because they know that defense is either going to stop you or worse take the ball away. Teams don't fear us in these long yardage situations

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Depending on where on the field, 3rd and long can also be a time to go long... not worrying necessarily about an interception cuz it would be just like a punt. So in preventing that scenario, the defense is playing more of a "prevent" defense... allowing them some of yardage to gain, but hopefully stopping them short. Sometimes the offense makes a play and get the 1st. It's frustrating for sure, but they don't score. The alternative ("regular" defense) opens up more possibilities of a deep play when a team is somewhat desperate in a 3rd and long situation.

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3 minutes ago, kirkwoodus13 said:

Yes it is because if 24 does not make that play, then go back and look at the amount of times the defense had the ravens in third and long situation on that one drive alone and could not get of the field. hopefully we don't pay the price against KC. I want a defense that the offense automatically turns and hand the ball off those situations because they know that defense is either going to stop you or worse take the ball away. Teams don't fear us in these long yardage situations

 

The Bills defense has been one of the better defenses (DVOA) over the last 8 weeks and is currently ranked 2nd (DVOA), just behind Tampa of the final four teams. This just in: They are going to face some pretty good offenses in the playoffs, each presenting its own unique challenge. They need to make the plays they need to make - and they have been doing just that. 

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Agree. When we drop everyone on 3rd & long, we are highly vulnerable to QBs running for it. That's happened plenty of times this season, & is more frustrating to me than allowing a first down completion.

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The sometimes lacking 3rd and long defense in my opinion is a direct result of not having an elite pass rusher on the D-line. When you watch a team that has that elite pass rusher I feel as though on third and long situations is where they dial up the pass rush and put pressure or absorb a double/triple team that allows someone else to blitz or beat a one on one situation. 

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I used to think the same thing about our 3rd and long defense but it’s not just a Bills phenomenon.  Happens all over the NFL.  Saw it happen multiple times in last weeks playoffs.  

Just so many dynamic playmakers in the NFL today

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46 minutes ago, 947 said:

Agree. When we drop everyone on 3rd & long, we are highly vulnerable to QBs running for it. That's happened plenty of times this season, & is more frustrating to me than allowing a first down completion.

How do you think the Browns feel knowing that they let a 50 year old back-up QB that nobody knew was still in the league run for a 3rd and 15 and prevent an AFC Championship of their own....

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1 hour ago, kirkwoodus13 said:

The Ravens game was very nerve wrecking for me to watch. Especially when the Bills have opposing offense in third and long situations. The Bill always prefer to play it safe and rush 3 or 4 and drop everyone back into coverage. I don't know about you guys, but can the coaches please stop and throw that defense out. How many times do we have to watch the quarterback hang back there and have all day to find a soft spot  for a completion in this defense. How many times we have to watch our linebackers and corners sink to deep, miss tackles and be indiscipline and try to jump a route. Why are we not aggressive in these situations and force the QB to throw the ball quicker , allowing us to hopefully come up and make a tackle. This terrible defense cost us the game last year against Houston and almost cost us last week. How do we give up a third and eighteen to a running quarterback? Go get him the same way we have been doing all night. Fortunately for us the Chiefs third down and long  defense is just as bad as ours. Just watch last week Browns defense to confirm. Which ever team wins this area of the game will be going to Super Bowl. I just hope our coaches don't play conservative and have Mahomes convert a long third down to keep a drive alive to beat us. How do we fix our third down defense and not give us heart attack. I am at the point where I am surprise if the other team does not convert a third and long against us. 

 

Give up a 3rd and 18 to a running QB?

 

Hah!  Did you see the TD run Lamar had versus the  Titans?

 

What you are largely bemoaning is our bend but dont break defense.  Yes it can be frustrating to watch BUT our goal was to limit big plays which by and large they did.  

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Well, if Mahomes hits on 80% of his passes like last time the D is in for a long long day.  They have to change something. 

 

Conversely the Bills offense acts like they are in 3rd and long on nearly every down.  It has served them well with the most offensive production over a season in many years.  But it can also lead to a massive offensive flameout when it doesn't work, like last week vs. Baltimore.  

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4 minutes ago, Houston's #1 Bills Fan said:

It just brought back memories of the Texan's game and 3rd and 18(?). I re-watched the Chiefs game last night and saw the same thing. 3rd and long and they f'ing convert! I hate that!!!


Other teams say the same about Bills as they are one of the best teams at converting 3rd and long. It is an offensive league

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58 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I used to think the same thing about our 3rd and long defense but it’s not just a Bills phenomenon.  Happens all over the NFL.  Saw it happen multiple times in last weeks playoffs.  

Yep look at Cleveland and the 3rd and 14 when Henne ran for 13 yards. 

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I completely agree.  As well as the D played, just too many third down conversions both Playoff games (& 4th down).

 

Two vs. the Ravens stood out, flipped field position & cost the Bills points 

 

1. 2ND & 30 from the 1 yard line and allow an easy 12 yard completion and then a 20 yard one for the first.

2. Huntley's first play from scrimmage and he runs for 19 yards.  Instead of a kick from the end zone, a 55 yard boot to the 24.

 

Vs. Indy they were 9-17 on third downs and 2-4 Fourth Downs.

Vs. Ravens 7-17 on third downs.  

 

 

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Teams are something like 34% on 3rd and more-than-10 against the Bills.
 

Take out the Jets and Broncos, and teams are over 40% on 3rd and more-than-10 against Buffalo.

 

that seems... not good. That’s league average across all third downs.

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We have to play zone and bend don't break prevent. We have no choice based on personnel. We have no 1 tech to free up Ed or a blitzer. And as much as I love Jerry's effort, we have no elite pass rushers. Our gameplan for Lamar was brilliant. We for the most part kept him in that pocket. We sacked/pressured him 5x more than Rivers. I think Leslie & Sean will dial up a few more blitzes than normal. But we will remain in "bend don't break" mode. Add Star next year and a better DE and that changes. 

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13 minutes ago, Ecmic82 said:

Teams are something like 34% on 3rd and more-than-10 against the Bills.
 

Take out the Jets and Broncos, and teams are over 40% on 3rd and more-than-10 against Buffalo.

 

that seems... not good. That’s league average across all third downs.

 

Cover 2 is usually preferred in third and long.  2 backers and NB inside and 2 CBs on the boundaries.  But its a read play - sometimes the boundary guys play deep and it fleshes out more like quarters.  the olb and nb then cover the boundaries. 

 

You can both limit big plays and underneath depending on the route concept.  And there's nothing you can do pre-snap to flesh out what the corners do - it happens as the play is happening.  You can also position the nickel and LBs on the LOS to give a blitz look, and then rotate into a complete cover 2 look.  

 

At the same time - buffalo might be forced to play a bit more man in this one.  QBs who can buy time effectively are nightmares for a zone defense.  

 

 

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10 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We have to play zone and bend don't break prevent. We have no choice based on personnel. We have no 1 tech to free up Ed or a blitzer. And as much as I love Jerry's effort, we have no elite pass rushers. Our gameplan for Lamar was brilliant. We for the most part kept him in that pocket. We sacked/pressured him 5x more than Rivers. I think Leslie & Sean will dial up a few more blitzes than normal. But we will remain in "bend don't break" mode. Add Star next year and a better DE and that changes. 

Hopefully Patrick's foot is still bothering him. As one of the things that is a key to his success, is like Josh, that he can move away from rushers and make a long pass downfield. If we can keep him in the pocket and collapse it quickly he won't be able to make big plays downfield. 

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To take some stats into account. The bills also completed about 35% of their chances on 3rd and longs 

 

Football players are paid to play, and coaches are paid to draw a play that will work 

 

The league average Converting third and long this year was 20%. The bills were worse than average but not some statistical outlier

 

34% is worse than average but not a crazy statistical outlier. We have four years of our defense on film

 

 

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I am sorry but teams seem to know what we are going to do in third and long situations. The defense have to win on first down this week to get KC in long 2nd and 3rd down situations. Then Leslie and Sean has to send pressure to get the ball out of Mahomes hand quickly. I expect a lot man to man this week. Tre White need to earn that contract on SUNDAY

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7 hours ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

How do you think the Browns feel knowing that they let a 50 year old back-up QB that nobody knew was still in the league run for a 3rd and 15 and prevent an AFC Championship of their own....

 

They feel terrible about their scouting department who did not even know who Chiefs' backup QB.

 

And they had amazingly poor math skills.

 

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9 hours ago, BuffaloBillies said:

Depending on where on the field, 3rd and long can also be a time to go long... not worrying necessarily about an interception cuz it would be just like a punt. So in preventing that scenario, the defense is playing more of a "prevent" defense... allowing them some of yardage to gain, but hopefully stopping them short. Sometimes the offense makes a play and get the 1st. It's frustrating for sure, but they don't score. The alternative ("regular" defense) opens up more possibilities of a deep play when a team is somewhat desperate in a 3rd and long situation.

It also helps kill the clock.

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9 hours ago, BuffaloBillies said:

Depending on where on the field, 3rd and long can also be a time to go long... not worrying necessarily about an interception cuz it would be just like a punt. So in preventing that scenario, the defense is playing more of a "prevent" defense... allowing them some of yardage to gain, but hopefully stopping them short. Sometimes the offense makes a play and get the 1st. It's frustrating for sure, but they don't score. The alternative ("regular" defense) opens up more possibilities of a deep play when a team is somewhat desperate in a 3rd and long situation.


I look at it like the Hail Mary - you don’t want to be 100% predictable but pressure is your friend, and if you don’t have to defend the first 5-10 yards underneath you can still have great coverage while firing a bullet at the qb

 

i don’t blitz 100% there but overloading a spot on the line would be my tactic more often then not 

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