The Athletic Article: Daboll and Allen

[inthebuff]

https://theathletic.com/2086946/2020/09/23/teds-film-room-these-three-quarterback-play-caller-duos-need-more-respect/?source=dailyemail

Buffalo: Josh Allen and Brian Daboll

There are a few reasons why Josh Allen’s development doesn’t get talked about a lot. First, there were a lot of draft pundits who weren’t very high on Allen. He had amazing physical tools but his accuracy and processing ability were lacking coming out of the University of Wyoming. Although Allen has steadily improved his accuracy, he still misses some easy passes. When he does miss, he misses by a lot, and it can be jarring to see at times and affects people’s perception of him. Lastly, the Bills offense just wasn’t very good last year — they only averaged 19.6 points per game, ranking 23rd in the league. To Allen’s credit, Buffalo didn’t have a lot of weapons, and he definitely showed signs of improvement, but the accuracy problem was evident.

“Per Trumedia, 23 percent of Allen’s passes were off target, which was the worst rate in the league among those 26 passers,” ESPN’s Bill Barnwell included in his analysis of Allen’s 2019 season.

So far this season, Allen looks much more accurate, especially passing deep. This was apparent in the fourth quarter against Miami when he made jaw-dropping pass after jaw-dropping pass to bring the Bills back and win the game. In the fourth quarter, Allen was 6 for 8 (75 percent) for 145 yards and two touchdowns and averaged 18.1 yards per attempt.

His first touchdown in the fourth quarter came as a result of playmaking ability and anticipation. Anticipation was an area in which Allen could struggle at times in his first two seasons, but it looks like he’s doing a much better job of throwing to open areas before his receivers uncover.

6:03 mark of the fourth quarter, third-and-6

The Dolphins play a ton of man coverage, so Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll responded with a steady diet of rub concepts throughout the game. In the play above, Allen had a rub concept to his right with John Brown running a dig on the backside to his left.

Allen looked to the rub concept first but didn’t like what he saw. He might have seen that the No. 1 (farthest outside) receiver, Gabriel Davis, who was supposed to set the pick, had a hard time getting off press coverage and getting to his landmark. He was right because the rub was unsuccessful, and both receivers ended up being covered.

Next, Allen looked to Brown on the backside, but Brown had two defenders on his side and was covered.

After looking to Brown, edge pressure got to Allen, so he quickly stepped up and moved the ball to his left hand to avoid getting stripped while keeping his eyes downfield.

After he got away from the pressure, he reset his base and anticipated that Davis would uncover on the scramble drill. He began his throwing motion right as Davis was breaking back toward the sideline.

If Allen didn’t throw the ball with anticipation, defensive back Eric Rowe might have been able to get in the passing window. However, Allen threw a perfect pass outside of Rowe’s reach, and Davis made an incredible diving catch for the touchdown, giving the Bills a four-point lead after the extra point.

Allen’s ability to see the entire field and read coverages looked improved as well. On the play before his game-sealing touchdown pass, he nearly threw a costly interception. He wanted to hit Brown on a crossing route, but there seemed to be a miscommunication. Brown flattened his route out, but Allen threw the ball upfield and hit cornerback Xavien Howard right in the hands. Luckily for the Bills, Howard dropped it.

On the next play, Daboll went right back to attacking the deep middle of the field with Brown.

3:17 mark of the fourth quarter, third-and-9

This time, Brown ran a divide route.

Instead of coming out in a one deep safety look, the defense had two safeties deep, but it was only a disguise. After the snap, the play side safety rotated down and became the “rat” to help on short to intermediate in-breaking routes, while the backside safety, Bobby McCain, doubled Stefon Diggs on the other side.

Initially, Allen looked to Diggs but saw that was being doubled. McCain looked like he was anticipating that Diggs was going to run an intermediate route because he slowed down his backpedal and got flat-footed.

From the end zone angle you could see Allen looked to his second progression, which was Brown on the divide route.

Strangely, Allen looked back to his left. He might have been double-checking that McCain didn’t drop deep enough to make a play on Brown.

After seeing that McCain was still too shallow to make a play, Allen looked back to Brown and uncorked a beautiful pass that traveled nearly 55 yards in the air to Brown for the touchdown.

Credit to the Bills offensive line. They gave Allen enough time to look left, right, back left and then back right. I don’t know if double-checking where McCain was, was necessary. If Allen saw that McCain didn’t get enough depth initially, he should trust Brown’s speed and his arm to put the ball in the right spot. This is something that Allen will surely look at on film and take note of.

 

Daboll has really leaned into Allen’s mobility and designed an interesting spread-option attack with a lot of two-back looks with tight end Dawson Knox essentially playing fullback. His game plan against Miami’s man-heavy team was a masterclass in how to beat man coverage with a bevy of rub concepts. I do believe the Miami defense is an improved unit. Allen just made some really tough throws against them. Occasionally, Allen is going to miss some easy throws, but if he continues to throw deep accurately and make plays with his legs, the good will far outweigh the bad.

[DrDawkinstein]

Making reads, going through his progressions, throwing with anticipation... with accuracy.

 

Guys, we made it.

[mabden]

 "When he does miss, he misses by a lot, and it can be jarring to see at times and affects people’s perception of him When he does miss, he misses by a lot, and it can be jarring to see at times and affects people’s perception of him"

 

BS.  I have seen Peyton Manning throw ducks in the dirt.  Same with about any other QB in the NFL.

Edited September 24, 2020 by mabden

[eball]

4 minutes ago, mabden said:

 "When he does miss, he misses by a lot, and it can be jarring to see at times and affects people’s perception of him When he does miss, he misses by a lot, and it can be jarring to see at times and affects people’s perception of him"

 

BS.  I have seen Patton Manning throw ducks in the dirt.  Same with about any other QB in the NFL.

 

Gotta get the papers, get the papers.

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, mabden said:

 "When he does miss, he misses by a lot, and it can be jarring to see at times and affects people’s perception of him When he does miss, he misses by a lot, and it can be jarring to see at times and affects people’s perception of him"

 

BS.  I have seen Peyton Manning throw ducks in the dirt.  Same with about any other QB in the NFL.

 

There is some truth in this. Of course every QB misses but Josh occasionally has to egregious miss and it goes viral. It was the Michael Lombardi point on Allen v Darnold last week.... the perception because Josh occasionally has the major miscue is that Darnold is more accurate. But when Josh is on song and in rhythm he is pin point in way you rarely see from Sam Darnold.

 

I just think don't let it bother you. Josh will have the occasional wild throw over the head of John Brown in the enzone week 1. It will likely always be there. But it is an insignificant element when you consider the 12-15 pin point balls he is firing into tight windows in a way only a handful of NFL QBs can. He has had as many big boy NFL throws as any Quarterback in the league through 2 weeks.

[Shaw66]

The more I read about the Dolphins, the more worried I get.   It seems like the Dolphins pass defense schemes were very predictable, executed poorly, and played to Allen's strengths.  Add to that, the Dolphins pass rush was anemic.  That's what added up to Allen's great day. 

 

We'll see what happens when they play tougher opponents, starting this week. 

[dave mcbride]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is some truth in this. Of course every QB misses but Josh occasionally has to egregious miss and it goes viral. It was the Michael Lombardi point on Allen v Darnold last week.... the perception because Josh occasionally has the major miscue is that Darnold is more accurate. But when Josh is on song and in rhythm he is pin point in way you rarely see from Sam Darnold.

 

I just think don't let it bother you. Josh will have the occasional wild throw over the head of John Brown in the enzone week 1. It will likely always be there. But it is an insignificant element when you consider the 12-15 pin point balls he is firing into tight windows in a way only a handful of NFL QBs can. He has had as many big boy NFL throws as any Quarterback in the league through 2 weeks.

Isn't part of it that Allen has made a bunch of wildly inaccurate throws when he runs to his left? He badly overthrew an open receiver early in the Miami game when he ran to his left, and he missed open receivers in the EZ twice when he ran to his left in the Jets game (Knox and then Brown). 

Edited September 24, 2020 by dave mcbride

[BillsShredder83]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Isn't part of it that Allen has made a bunch of wildly inaccurate throws when he runs to his left? He badly overthrew an open receiver early in the Miami game when he ran to his left, and he missed open receivers in the EZ twice when he ran to his left in the Jets game (Knox and then Brown). 

That throw running to the left was classic josh getting too amped up. He escaped pressure, had more time than he realized and over rushed his throw. Adrenaline flying and the ball went a mile over receivers head. While inaccurate, it wasn't like a mechanics issue, just too hyped from escaping a certain sack.  Im not worried about those types of misses and will probably be something as he gets older and can reset his head

[Motorin']

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The more I read about the Dolphins, the more worried I get.   It seems like the Dolphins pass defense schemes were very predictable, executed poorly, and played to Allen's strengths.  Add to that, the Dolphins pass rush was anemic.  That's what added up to Allen's great day. 

 

We'll see what happens when they play tougher opponents, starting this week. 

 

It's not just Allen.  These upcoming games are going to be a serious test of the O-Line. IMO, the amount of time Allen has been given to throw is the #1 reason for his success... It may be that the addition of Diggs and the schemes Daboll has been able to implement make it really difficult for the defense to throw the kitchen sink at Allen like the Pats and Ravens last year...

 

At the same time, the Texans were able to obliterate the O-Line in the playoff game using stunts and just sending 3 or 4 rushers. 

 

I'm really looking forward to see how well the line stands up against tougher competition, and how well Daboll is able to scheme the Bills into situations that A. make the opposing defense freighted to blitz, and B. burn the blitz when it comes. 

Edited September 24, 2020 by Motorin'

[DrDawkinstein]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The more I read about the Dolphins, the more worried I get.   It seems like the Dolphins pass defense schemes were very predictable, executed poorly, and played to Allen's strengths.  Add to that, the Dolphins pass rush was anemic.  That's what added up to Allen's great day. 

 

We'll see what happens when they play tougher opponents, starting this week. 

 

 Remember, the question on Josh was whether he could do these things AT ALL. If he could EVER be accurate. And he is showing that he absolutely can be.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

 

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Isn't part of it that Allen has made a bunch of wildly inaccurate throws when he runs to his left? He badly overthrew an open receiver early in the Miami game when he ran to his left, and he missed open receivers in the EZ twice when he ran to his left in the Jets game (Knox and then Brown). 

 

Every time he does it he doesn't set his feet when rolling left.  

[DCOrange]

Didn't see this article earlier but glad it was posted here. Ted Nguyen is one of my favorite football writers out there right now; great piece here. The breakdowns of Minshew and Dak were good too.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

Didn't see this article earlier but glad it was posted here. Ted Nguyen is one of my favorite football writers out there right now; great piece here. The breakdowns of Minshew and Dak were good too.

 

Agree Ted is excellent.

[eball]

28 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Isn't part of it that Allen has made a bunch of wildly inaccurate throws when he runs to his left? He badly overthrew an open receiver early in the Miami game when he ran to his left, and he missed open receivers in the EZ twice when he ran to his left in the Jets game (Knox and then Brown). 

 

Yup.  When he is moving to his left he doesn't square his shoulders, resulting in these misfires.  You'd have to think it's something they are aware of and another coaching emphasis point.

[TwistofFate]

38 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The more I read about the Dolphins, the more worried I get.   It seems like the Dolphins pass defense schemes were very predictable, executed poorly, and played to Allen's strengths.  Add to that, the Dolphins pass rush was anemic.  That's what added up to Allen's great day. 

 

We'll see what happens when they play tougher opponents, starting this week. 

I agree, but I cant take away that exceptional performance from him.  He made all the throws exactly how we should expect him to.  Let's see what we can do against the Rams.

[ganesh]

48 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The more I read about the Dolphins, the more worried I get.   It seems like the Dolphins pass defense schemes were very predictable, executed poorly, and played to Allen's strengths.  Add to that, the Dolphins pass rush was anemic.  That's what added up to Allen's great day. 

 

We'll see what happens when they play tougher opponents, starting this week. 

may be we should credit our OL for pass protection,

[IgotBILLStopay]

Nice article. It highlights why Allen's arm strength is such a plus. It can make up that extra fraction of a second of indecision - like on the Brown touchdown pass. He checked left, checked right than left again before throwing. Once he gets more confident he will  realize he is not "crossing the road" here and can trust his first read and throw to the left after checking right. In the meanwhile, that pass can still get to the receiver on time despite the extra fraction of a second.

 

After replaying each of JA's throws, I agree that the Gabe Davis TD was the throw of the day. Unlike the Brown TD above - there was no indecision at all. Scrambling to buy time, full anticipation (something Allen was not known for when he came out), and threw it where only his receiver could get it - cant ask more from any QB - and Gabe Davis made the catch of the day. The more one looks at the angle, Allen could not really throw closer to Davis since he had to beat the DB - so he threw it into the tightest window possible - and again the arm strength helped him beat the DB. 

[Chandler#81]

52 minutes ago, ganesh said:

may be we should credit our OL for pass protection,

 

Party pooper😡

😉

[Logic]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

The more I read about the Dolphins, the more worried I get.   It seems like the Dolphins pass defense schemes were very predictable, executed poorly, and played to Allen's strengths.  Add to that, the Dolphins pass rush was anemic.  That's what added up to Allen's great day. 

 

We'll see what happens when they play tougher opponents, starting this week. 

Fair.

I will only say that the things pointed out in the article -- going through progressions, looking off safeties, delivering the ball with anticipation and improved accuracy-- theoretically aren't things that will go away when the quality of competition goes up. He will produce less gaudy stat lines and may have less success overall, but the nuances of the game in which Allen is starting to show proficiency are cause for optimism that continued success overall is likely.

[Mango]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is some truth in this. Of course every QB misses but Josh occasionally has to egregious miss and it goes viral. It was the Michael Lombardi point on Allen v Darnold last week.... the perception because Josh occasionally has the major miscue is that Darnold is more accurate. But when Josh is on song and in rhythm he is pin point in way you rarely see from Sam Darnold.

 

I just think don't let it bother you. Josh will have the occasional wild throw over the head of John Brown in the enzone week 1. It will likely always be there. But it is an insignificant element when you consider the 12-15 pin point balls he is firing into tight windows in a way only a handful of NFL QBs can. He has had as many big boy NFL throws as any Quarterback in the league through 2 weeks.

 

I agree with this. I will add, that Josh can also be either hot or cold. He has a tendency to hit a few wow plays, then miss a bunch of throws that he either didn't deliver a good ball, or didn't see initially. The issue/complaints with Josh has always been consistency, not whether he could or could not make throws, reads etc. 

He has been very consistent so far this year. He has taken a large leap than I thought he would in year 3. It has been great to see!

 

 

Edited September 24, 2020 by Mango

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, mabden said:

 "When he does miss, he misses by a lot, and it can be jarring to see at times and affects people’s perception of him When he does miss, he misses by a lot, and it can be jarring to see at times and affects people’s perception of him"

 

BS.  I have seen Peyton Manning throw ducks in the dirt.  Same with about any other QB in the NFL.

 

The QB lens is different for Allen than for other QBs and will be till it isn't. He came out of a small program as a raw project.

 

He is polarizing because so many fans of the game have an opinion about him. He's trash and will never get better, he needs to correct this or that, he just needs time, he is what he is and is spinning his wheels, etc. 

 

I have never personally seen this level of forensic scrutiny for any QB in the NFL before. I am guilty of the same thing.

 

Allen was very efficient with the ball last year after the NE game. The long ball was the only consistent area off and those made up about 2-3 passes a game.

 

He devoted himself to playing a much more controlled and turnover-free game, leaning on our defense. 

 

I think he was still holding the ball too long trying to be sure he was seeing the right thing and making the right throw. This led to the more inaccurate fastballs to his receivers that were off-platform and lacked anticipation. He would also uncork those long balls long and on a rope settling for just backing defenses up.

 

He was so risk-adverse on throws he made them difficult catches for our receivers and safely-impossible catches for defenders.

 

Its all part of his growth mindset. Now he is more confident reading the coverages and can better identify safety help over top.

 

He is letting it rip all over the field with touch and anticipation getting properly set and trusting his eyes and decisions that his receiver is going to have the best odds of hauling it in.

 

He will still have up and down games, but it is clear that he is learning and applying what he has learned.

 

 

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I agree with this. I will add, that Josh can also be either hot or cold. He has a tendency to hit a few wow plays, then miss a bunch of throws that he either didn't deliver a good ball, or didn't see initially. The issue/complaints with Josh has always been constancy, not whether he could or could not make throws, reads etc. 

He has been very consistent so far this year. He has taken a large leap than I thought he would in year 3. It has been great to see!

 

 

Revisionist history. They said he was inconsistent, yes, but they also said he didn't have the tools to be a great QB. They said he was just a big arm and used the occasional misfire as proof. 

[Mango]

2 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

The QB lens is different for Allen than for other QBs and will be till it isn't. He came out of a small program as a raw project.

 

He is polarizing because so many fans of the game have an opinion about him. He's trash and will never get better, he needs to correct this or that, he just needs time, he is what he is and is spinning his wheels, etc. 

 

I have never personally seen this level of forensic scrutiny for any QB in the NFL before. I am guilty of the same thing.

 

Allen was very efficient with the ball last year after the NE game. The long ball was the only consistent area off and those made up about 2-3 passes a game.

 

He devoted himself to playing a much more controlled and turnover-free game, leaning on our defense. 

 

I think he was still holding the ball too long trying to be sure he was seeing the right thing and making the right throw. This led to the more inaccurate fastballs to his receivers that were off-platform and lacked anticipation. He would also uncork those long balls long and on a rope settling for just backing defenses up.

 

He was so risk-adverse on throws he made them difficult catches for our receivers and safely-impossible catches for defenders.

 

Its all part of his growth mindset. Now he is more confident reading the coverages and can better identify safety help over top.

 

He is letting it rip all over the field with touch and anticipation getting properly set and trusting his eyes and decisions that his receiver is going to have the best odds of hauling it in.

 

He will still have up and down games, but it is clear that he is learning and applying what he has learned.

 

 

 

 

 

 

To the bolded point. I think part of that might be because he is our QB so we just have more discussion over it and pay more attention when national pundits mention his name. I would guess guys like Trubisky, Wentz, Sanchez, have all had long threads on their own boards about similar things. 

[Buffalo Boy]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

The more I read about the Dolphins, the more worried I get.   It seems like the Dolphins pass defense schemes were very predictable, executed poorly, and played to Allen's strengths.  Add to that, the Dolphins pass rush was anemic.  That's what added up to Allen's great day. 

 

We'll see what happens when they play tougher opponents, starting this week. 

    I get this point of view. But, good that Josh got some easy outs to get his timing down and his confidence up.

     He hit some sweet passes last year against NE and Baltimore that were flat out dropped. Same thing with the Houston game. The kid is progressing but is nowhere near a finished project. 
     With Allen’s selfless work ethic and desire to improve, imagine where this kid will be in a year or two. 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

The more I read about the Dolphins, the more worried I get.   It seems like the Dolphins pass defense schemes were very predictable, executed poorly, and played to Allen's strengths.  Add to that, the Dolphins pass rush was anemic.  That's what added up to Allen's great day. 

 

We'll see what happens when they play tougher opponents, starting this week. 

 

What is it about it that makes you "worried"?  I don't get that.  If you want to be cautiously optimistic, fine.  But why worried?  Doesnt matter the opponent, those passes Allen threw were pin point accurate and beauties.  These are passes deep he missed last year.  He in 2 weeks has shown a SUBSTANTIAL improvement in anticipation throws.  So regardless of the opponent, he STILL hit those passes.  Not to mention, Miami held NE pass attack in check, while a SB contender got lit up the next week at home by the same NE team.  

 

Nobody was calling the Miami defense terrible after week 1...but Allen lights them up, suddenly they are treated like the worst defense in the NFL.  Its not like our guys were just wide open and Allen was playing catch out there.  There were so many remarkable throws that only get completed with accuracy and timing and anticipation.  

 

Does it mean Allen will light every defense up every week.  No, but this narrative to be worried about Allen still because the perceived opponent was weak is being exaggerated.  

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It seems like the Dolphins pass defense schemes were very predictable, executed poorly, and played to Allen's strengths.

 

Last year man coverage was actually a weakness, partly due to Allen and partly because our WRs couldn't separate. He was already playing well against zone coverage. The Dolphins secondary isn't elite by any stretch of the imagination but they have talented players back there. The difference is this year Allen is throwing with more anticipation and hitting deep throws, and thanks to Diggs we can now separate against man coverage. The one thing I am still a little concerned about is Allen's ability to hit his hot read on zero blitzes, I don't think the Dolphins tested him.

[Mango]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Revisionist history. They said he was inconsistent, yes, but they also said he didn't have the tools to be a great QB. They said he was just a big arm and used the occasional misfire as proof. 

 

I guess I can only speak for myself. But that has largely been my gripe, not that he could not, but he has not and  has been more than the "occasional" miss fire or misread. He has always had the tools. He has a cannon attached to his shoulder where an arm should be. He is big and strong. He has some wheels. A tenacious runner. A great work ethic and tremendous leader. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

What is it about it that makes you "worried"?  I don't get that.  If you want to be cautiously optimistic, fine.  But why worried?  Doesnt matter the opponent, those passes Allen threw were pin point accurate and beauties.  These are passes deep he missed last year.  He in 2 weeks has shown a SUBSTANTIAL improvement in anticipation throws.  So regardless of the opponent, he STILL hit those passes.  Not to mention, Miami held NE pass attack in check, while a SB contender got lit up the next week at home by the same NE team.  

 

Nobody was calling the Miami defense terrible after week 1...but Allen lights them up, suddenly they are treated like the worst defense in the NFL.  Its not like our guys were just wide open and Allen was playing catch out there.  There were so many remarkable throws that only get completed with accuracy and timing and anticipation.  

 

Does it mean Allen will light every defense up every week.  No, but this narrative to be worried about Allen still because the perceived opponent was weak is being exaggerated.  

Correct. In fact, going into the Buffalo game people would have said the strength of the Dolphins team was their defense and in particular their secondary against the pass.

[WideNine]

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

To the bolded point. I think part of that might be because he is our QB so we just have more discussion over it and pay more attention when national pundits mention his name. I would guess guys like Trubisky, Wentz, Sanchez, have all had long threads on their own boards about similar things. 

 

Certainly possible or probable it is because we are tuned in more to our QB.

 

I just don't recall a qb that seemed to generate the churn of Allen on syndicated sports media shows and publications that has persisted so long.

 

And it is not like he tries to court controversy like Mayfield...he is just working on his craft.

 

Still, it could just be my hightened perception regarding the stale draft analysis narratives and PFF takes that seem to resist revision.

 

 

 

 

 

[IgotBILLStopay]

2 hours ago, ganesh said:

may be we should credit our OL for pass protection,

Spain needs to shape up a bit, but the others have been fabulous so far. And despite the Jets' woes on the offensive side, they are / were a very decent defense with a stout front line.

[IgotBILLStopay]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

The more I read about the Dolphins, the more worried I get.   It seems like the Dolphins pass defense schemes were very predictable, executed poorly, and played to Allen's strengths.  Add to that, the Dolphins pass rush was anemic.  That's what added up to Allen's great day. 

 

We'll see what happens when they play tougher opponents, starting this week. 

That is the national narrative. Why cant these guys come out and admit the Bills offense did well? Bills rack up yards and TDs, why does it have to be that the opponent did badly? As you say, time will tell. If we do well against the Rams, will it be about our great offense or their bad defense? 

 

Miami had a completely different scheme after watching the Bills offense carve up the jets in the first half of game 1.  And yet, Daboll adjusted to the new scheme and devised all those great crossing routes and the offense did not miss a beat. I guess our 17 year drought has made losing to the Bills viewed like the Globetrotters losing to the Generals.