What would/should a Milano extension look like?

[machine gun kelly]

That’s the 23rd paid LB.

[Fr. Jerk]

 

Everything with extras on it, ya dig?

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

9 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

That's not what I meant. I meant you need draft picks on their initial contract to fill out your team. Once you pay Allen there will be little room left. You can't sign everyone. You need to pick and choose who to let go and where you can draft replacements. Of course Milano on a team friendly deal would be great. But those dollars will add up and limit your options in the future. 

They got lucky and got a very good player at low cost. Now don't make a mistake and overpay to keep him.

At 4-60 you let him walk and get a 3rd round comp pick. Easy choice. 

Just ask what Belichick would do.  No way he pays 60 M for an undersized LB that he can replace in the draft or free agency for 1/5th the price.

gotcha. I’d be willing to overpay slightly as long as the years weren’t too much.
 

Transition or franchise tags might be a better option considering they will go down if the cap does and gives more time to decide what Allen’s contract might look like. 
 

Even if the cap goes down they will have the space until Allen’s contract goes up so might as well spend it on Milano as opposed to overpaying someone in free agency. 

[2ForMacAdoo]

24 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea. Have to figure out who to prioritize, but I it's too early to say on Josh. This year will determine that, IMO.

 

I agree though. They are going to have to let some guys walk and Milano seems like one they will.

Agreed on Josh. May also be too early to say on Tremaine and Oliver. For Josh and those two guys, I'm going on raw talent and potential ceiling. Milano, while a nice find in the 5th round, just isn't in the same category. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

58 minutes ago, Chemical said:

gotcha. I’d be willing to overpay slightly as long as the years weren’t too much.
 

Transition or franchise tags might be a better option considering they will go down if the cap does and gives more time to decide what Allen’s contract might look like. 
 

Even if the cap goes down they will have the space until Allen’s contract goes up so might as well spend it on Milano as opposed to overpaying someone in free agency. 

I agree on the tag. Before Dawkins was extended I advocated for signing either Dawkins or Milano and tagging the other. Bills have cap space now to add a player like Clowney or roll it over and tag a player like Milano. For one year he will be grossly overpaid but there is no long term issue with the cap by avoiding a 4 year deal.

[Magox]

On 8/14/2020 at 9:24 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

There is a lot of discussion in the “who is next” thread about Milano. He’s in the last year of his deal and seems to be pretty polarizing when it comes to his next contract. I felt that this discussion needed to be broken out to talk just about Milano and the numbers. Is Milano’s playmaking ability the product of the system or the reason that the system is so effective? It’s a little chicken and egg
 

In my opinion the Bills came into this offseason wanting to extend Dawkins, Spain and Milano (obviously Beane and McDermott too but they don’t factor into the cap). The Bills probably had a total number in mind for these 3. Dawkins contract is probably almost exactly what they expected. Spain was a bargain for the Bills. He was probably $2m-$3M less than they expected on an annual basis. What they expect for Milano is anybody’s guess. It seems like most projections are in the $14M a year range. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buffalorumblings.com/platform/amp/2020/3/2/21157016/contract-projection-for-buffalo-bills-linebacker-matt-milano-highest-paid-linebacker-in-the-nfl
 

Would you be comfortable with Milano at roughly the same deal that Dawkins just signed? Let’s say 4 years and $56M. If not, what would your contract offer to Milano be? 

 

 

 

 

I think the Bills ideally would like to see if they are able to draft someone or have someone in place that can replace him that plays at a similar level.  But if they cannot do that and view him as an integral piece then I think an extension of 4 years $45 million with $25 million guaranteed would be what they would be willing to pay him.

[BarleyNY]

Here is a link to Spotrac’s $13M AAV estimate (4/$52M).  I knew Milano would be the toughest decision going forward.  Lots of contracts at more important positions coming due soon.  Also there’s the matter of having a lot of cap space tied up in the LB corps in a few seasons once Edmunds is extended.
 

I’m not too worried about a one year dip in the cap as long as it comes roaring back as expected in 2022.  I am worried about affording Tre, Allen and Edmunds in addition to Milano though.  My heart says see if he’ll take a bit of a discount on an extension now and get it done.  My head says to extend Tre now and have Milano play out the season, test the market and give us a last look to match what he finds.  Then hope it’s not a great market for him and we can afford to keep him. 

[eball]

4 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Here is a link to Spotrac’s $13M AAV estimate (4/$52M).  I knew Milano would be the toughest decision going forward.  Lots of contracts at more important positions coming due soon.  Also there’s the matter of having a lot of cap space tied up in the LB corps in a few seasons once Edmunds is extended.
 

I’m not too worried about a one year dip in the cap as long as it comes roaring back as expected in 2022.  I am worried about affording Tre, Allen and Edmunds in addition to Milano though.  My heart says see if he’ll take a bit of a discount on an extension now and get it done.  My head says to extend Tre now and have Milano play out the season, test the market and give us a last look to match what he finds.  Then hope it’s not a great market for him and we can afford to keep him. 

 

I feel like Milano is not a guy who will push for a top end deal.  Just my gut.  I think he understands what players and positions need to "get paid" and will give the Bills a discount.  The Bills aren't going to extend Tre now because it's not in Tre's best interests to do that and you need two to tango.  The only reason for Tre to extend now is if he fears injury, but I don't see that happening.  My instincts tell me Beane is feeling out Milano and his agent for just what they're pushing for; if it's in the 14M range they will likely let it play out; if he's in the 12-13M range perhaps a deal gets done.  I don't think Milano is successful just because of the scheme, though -- the guy is talented and would shine in any defense.

[BarleyNY]

3 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I feel like Milano is not a guy who will push for a top end deal.  Just my gut.  I think he understands what players and positions need to "get paid" and will give the Bills a discount.  The Bills aren't going to extend Tre now because it's not in Tre's best interests to do that and you need two to tango.  The only reason for Tre to extend now is if he fears injury, but I don't see that happening.  My instincts tell me Beane is feeling out Milano and his agent for just what they're pushing for; if it's in the 14M range they will likely let it play out; if he's in the 12-13M range perhaps a deal gets done.  I don't think Milano is successful just because of the scheme, though -- the guy is talented and would shine in any defense.

Agree on Milano, but Tre has no reason not to do an extension now if he wants to stay here.  Elite players aren’t taking discounts due to the (probable) cap dip next season.  My bet is now that Dawkins is done Tre will be next up. 
 

I’d like to see the Bills find a way to keep Milano, but I don’t know that they are planning on it.  One thing that hasn’t been brought up is the Klein contract.  I know that $6M (3/$18M) isn’t huge money in the NFL, but I think they’re covering themselves in case they can’t keep Milano.  Or maybe they have accepted that they won’t be able to keep him.  I dunno.  I’d need an honest talk with Beane to know that.  If Milano is extended, then I’d expect Klein to be one and done here though.  Teams don’t usually pay their third LB even that much.  I guess we shall see how it plays out. 

[Dkollidas]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

Agree on Milano, but Tre has no reason not to do an extension now if he wants to stay here.  Elite players aren’t taking discounts due to the (probable) cap dip next season.  My bet is now that Dawkins is done Tre will be next up. 
 

I’d like to see the Bills find a way to keep Milano, but I don’t know that they are planning on it.  One thing that hasn’t been brought up is the Klein contract.  I know that $6M (3/$18M) isn’t huge money in the NFL, but I think they’re covering themselves in case they can’t keep Milano.  Or maybe they have accepted that they won’t be able to keep him.  I dunno.  I’d need an honest talk with Beane to know that.  If Milano is extended, then I’d expect Klein to be one and done here though.  Teams don’t usually pay their third LB even that much.  I guess we shall see how it plays out. 

I think Tre gets done after this season. He’ll play next season on his 5th year, and if they come up with a new deal, it might even replace the 5th year option. No need to rush it. They’re taking a patient approach to make sure all their ducks are in a row. Have faith in Beane’s math skills. 

[BarleyNY]

37 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

I think Tre gets done after this season. He’ll play next season on his 5th year, and if they come up with a new deal, it might even replace the 5th year option. No need to rush it. They’re taking a patient approach to make sure all their ducks are in a row. Have faith in Beane’s math skills. 

While it’s not a problem for Tre to get his deal done after the season there are advantages to getting it done early:

- a bit of a discount on his contract in exchange for more cash earlier
- freeing up some cap space in the 2020-2021 block which could help with a lowered cap in 2021

- improved clarity regarding what can be done for other players like Milano

- heading off the possibility of any problems with him

 

It's important for the Bills to engage with him and his agent now (and I’m sure they have) even if a deal does not happen right away.  The main reason a deal would not be reached soon is if Tre is trying to maximize his contract and is willing to wait to do that.  If so, that’s fine.  I am sure the Bills would keep in touch and that they let him know that they’re willing to deal now or later. 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

While it’s not a problem for Tre to get his deal done after the season there are advantages to getting it done early:

- a bit of a discount on his contract in exchange for more cash earlier
- freeing up some cap space in the 2020-2021 block which could help with a lowered cap in 2021

- improved clarity regarding what can be done for other players like Milano

- heading off the possibility of any problems with him

 

It's important for the Bills to engage with him and his agent now (and I’m sure they have) even if a deal does not happen right away.  The main reason a deal would not be reached soon is if Tre is trying to maximize his contract and is willing to wait to do that.  If so, that’s fine.  I am sure the Bills would keep in touch and that they let him know that they’re willing to deal now or later. 

 

I would bet good money that Tre and his agent have almost zero interest in getting a deal done this year. And that is the major, and only, hold up.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I would bet good money that Tre and his agent have almost zero interest in getting a deal done this year. And that is the major, and only, hold up.

Yup.  If it doesn’t get done this offseason, it’s nearly 100% that it’s due to Tre’s side.  I couldn’t begin to speak to his actual thoughts on it.  Sometimes a lot of what is said is just posturing.  I don’t blame a player for betting on himself and trying to maximize his contract, but it would be nice to see it get done soon. 

[uticaclub]

Would we get a comp pick if we let Milano walk? Turn a 5th round pick into a 3rd round pick

[Mountain Man]

On 8/14/2020 at 2:28 PM, LeviF91 said:

 

For context, $14M salary this year would make Milano the 12th highest paid LB in the league.  Even excluding guys on their rookie deals still, Milano is not close to being the 12th best LB in the league.

But in terms of value to a team, he is close to it. The Bills system is one of the most LB dependent in the entire league 

2 hours ago, uticaclub said:

Would we get a comp pick if we let Milano walk? Turn a 5th round pick into a 3rd round pick

Only if you release more qualifying FAs than you sign. So you'd need to release a lot more players than just Milano 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Mountain Man said:

But in terms of value to a team, he is close to it. The Bills system is one of the most LB dependent in the entire league 

Only if you release more qualifying FAs than you sign. So you'd need to release a lot more players than just Milano 

 

And depends the value of what Milano signs for elsewhere. The likelihood is it would be a 3rd. But if the Bills do their usual stacking of oline and dline depth in free agency and some of those guys make the roster then it cancels out.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

super size it 

 

 

I eat one for every tackle 

 

[billsfan89]

Milano if I had to guess should be in the range of 8 to 9 million if he takes an extension now (the discount of certainty) if he turns in a strong season and hits the market I can see him getting a 10 to 11 million dollar deal. Overall I think with Dawkins signed the team can afford to play somewhat tight with Milano.

 

Name a price you feel comfortable with (a modest amount relativey speaking) and let him and his agent decide if it makes sense for him or if they want to hit the open market.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

 

 

 

[purple haze]

On 8/16/2020 at 6:50 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s not even in the neighborhood of what he’s going to get. He will be WAY closer to 4-60 than 4-30.

4/48-50 is the sweet spot.  That’s where he belongs.  Can he get more on the open market?  I’m not so sure.

[Lurker]

Right now, it looks like a handshake and trading phone numbers on the way out the door...

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

25 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Right now, it looks like a handshake and trading phone numbers on the way out the door...

I think the Bills like him. 
if he has a solid year they’ll find a way to pay him.  
 

how much?
??

[Thurman#1]

On 8/14/2020 at 10:28 PM, LeviF91 said:

 

For context, $14M salary this year would make Milano the 12th highest paid LB in the league.  Even excluding guys on their rookie deals still, Milano is not close to being the 12th best LB in the league.

 

 

Yes, but the guys signing new contracts making them the 12th highest paid LB in the league are NEVER the 12th best. Probably more like 20th to 25th, which probably is about where Milano fits. That's how new contracts work. The first year they seem high, the 2nd and 3rd year new people have gotten new contracts and the guy who was 12th is now closer to where he should be. And in the 3rd to 5th year he's lower. That's how it works.

 

When Milano went out last year the whole defense was noticeably worse, and when he came back they were suddenly and obviously better again. 

[Thurman#1]

On 8/17/2020 at 2:01 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

I really like Milano and he’s a playmaker.  But you need to have a limit for him.  OLBs are easy to replace and I worry about him staying healthy.  Love the guy but you can’t sign everyone to max deals. 

 

 

Yeah, OLBs are easy to replace ... as long as you don't mind replacing him with an OLB JAG, a replacement level guy. 

 

Thing is ... in McDermott's defense he hasn't had a JAG there. Not in Carolina and not here. There's a reason Carolina paid two LBs a lot of money. And neither Kuechly nor Thomas Davis could rush the passer, so that wasn't it. His system needs an OLB who can defend the pass as well as play the run. There aren't that many guys that fast and agile around who are still tough enough to play the run well and stay healthy.

 

My guess is somewhere between maybe $11.5 and $14 per year. I'm not sure they'll be able to keep him but I'm sure they will try hard. If I were them I'd try to do it this year with the same argument they used with Tre, that if you sign this year [EDIT: if they're down to $5 mill this year that may be impossible]  you won't get quite as much as you'd get if you waited a couple of years but what happens if you get injured? Safety is worth a lot.

 

Might even be as high as $15 or $16 mill a year if they're going to use the skewed math that seems to be the norm now. 

 

Average salary means total salary divided by total years. And by that reckoning, Tre isn't getting the highest CB average by any means. Average salary is NOT taking only some of the money you will receive and dividing it by only some of the years you have contracted to play. Tre's average salary actually is going to be $81 mill over 6 years, which is actually around $13.5 mill a year. 

 

If you're going to calculate Milano's salary the same way, I wouldn't be surprised if it's closer to $15 or $16 mill ...  if you just use extension dollars and extension years.

Edited September 9, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Chandler#81]

Whatever it will look like, we won’t know til next year. -per Beane

[dollars 2 donuts]

It won’t be here and it will be 5 years, no less than 50 million, with 25 million guaranteed.
 

could go as high as 12 million per. 
 

Respectfully, I don’t know who or what some of you have been watching to think at this stage he will be under double digit millions per year.

 

LT is important and I like Dion but he is slightLy above average and got 15 million.  12 million doesn’t even get  Milano in the top 10.  10 million per seems about right.

Edited September 9, 2020 by dollars 2 donuts

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, but the guys signing new contracts making them the 12th highest paid LB in the league are NEVER the 12th best. Probably more like 20th to 25th, which probably is about where Milano fits. That's how new contracts work. The first year they seem high, the 2nd and 3rd year new people have gotten new contracts and the guy who was 12th is now closer to where he should be. And in the 3rd to 5th year he's lower. That's how it works.

 

When Milano went out last year the whole defense was noticeably worse, and when he came back they were suddenly and obviously better again. 

Agree, but the cap is going down next year. This has never happened in the NFL. So the old patterns need to be reconsidered, at least for next 1-2 years. 

[LeviF]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Probably more like 20th to 25th, which probably is about where Milano fits  

No

[Thurman#1]

31 minutes ago, LeviF91 said:

No

 

 

Higher? Fair enough. Maybe you're right. But again, when he was out last year the defense was visibly worse and they got noticeably better the minute he returned. The guy is very good in coverage and also in run defense. There aren't that many guys like that around.

Edited September 9, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

Agree, but the cap is going down next year. This has never happened in the NFL. So the old patterns need to be reconsidered, at least for next 1-2 years. 

 

 

Yes, fair enough, that's very much worth remembering. But if he gets one this year (again, if it's true that we're now down to $5 mill this year this will be pretty much completely out of the question) it could be finessed. Or finessed elsewise next year, such as with a largish signing bonus, a miniscule first year salary and a guaranteed second year salary in 2022 when teams that tightened belts the year before will now have some spare cash available. 

 

I'm not saying they will definitely re-sign him. They have enough good players that some of them will become financial decisions. Milano may be one of those. What I'm saying is that this defense needs a guy like Milano. McD defenses have generally had two, not one highly paid non-rushing LBs, with one of them being a guy like Milano with speed and cover ability attached to toughness and ability to stop the run. Thomas Davis was paid well inside the top ten for LBs when Carolina signed him for a second contract and again when they extended him if I remember correctly. The Bills' future Milano-like guy might not turn out to be Milano, but players with those physical characteristics aren't that easy to find. I believe they'll try very hard to sign him, though it's certainly possible they won't manage it.

 

And I loved Bobby Chandler back in the day.

Edited September 9, 2020 by Thurman#1