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ESPN Football Power Index 2020 Season Simulation

DCOrange

By DCOrange
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DCOrange Veteran

DCOrange

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https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29196114/2020-nfl-season-projections-chances-make-super-bowl-win-division-land-top-draft-spot-more

 

Top 10:

  1. Kansas City
  2. Baltimore
  3. San Francisco
  4. New Orleans
  5. Dallas
  6. Philadelphia
  7. Seattle
  8. Tampa Bay
  9. New England
  10. Buffalo

 

Buffalo edges New England out as the favorites in the AFC East (41.0% chance versus a 40.9% chance for New England) due to an easier schedule.

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GunnerBill Hall of Famer

GunnerBill

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Other than New England I make that top 10 about right. In the AFC I would be shocked if it isn't one if Baltimore, KC or Buffalo in the Superbowl. We are the third most likely of that trio but I just can't see anyone else I even give a shot to. The NFC is deeper but more jumbled at the top.

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Kirby Jackson Hall of Famer

Kirby Jackson

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3 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

So why is Buff 10 and NE*** 9? 

 

If I understand it correctly the rankings are their likelihood to win the Super Bowl based on the model. On paper the Bills have an easier schedule than the Pats which is why they are division favorites but not ahead of them in terms of the Super Bowl. FWIW, I’m on record as the Pats being a 6 win team but that’s the logic I think.

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Other than New England I make that top 10 about right. In the AFC I would be shocked if it isn't one if Baltimore, KC or Buffalo in the Superbowl. We are the third most likely of that trio but I just can't see anyone else I even give a shot to. The NFC is deeper but more jumbled at the top.

I agree here but give Pittsburgh and Cleveland slight chances at the Super Bowl. Things would have to go right in both cases but it isn’t impossible IMO. I’d give them combined less than a 5% chance I think (certainly less than 10%). 

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DCOrange Veteran

DCOrange

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15 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

So why is Buff 10 and NE*** 9? 

 

Basically, the rankings are the formulaic team ratings. They think New England is slightly better than Buffalo. But factor in the schedules and Buffalo is the slight favorite to win the division despite being a slightly worse team.

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SlimShady'sSpaceForce Hall of Famer

SlimShady'sSpaceForce

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15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If I understand it correctly the rankings are their likelihood to win the Super Bowl based on the model. On paper the Bills have an easier schedule than the Pats which is why they are division favorites but not ahead of them in terms of the Super Bowl. FWIW, I’m on record as the Pats being a 6 win team but that’s the logic I think.

 

 

LOL   OK,   I've seen other outlets say that NE* will be 7 to 9 win team. 

 

4 would suit me just fine :D 

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BillsFan17 Veteran

BillsFan17

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Its one thing that the Pats lost Brady, but hes not the only player the Pats lost. There were players like Van Noy, Collins, Shelton for instance who are no longer there. Yes, the Pats have always had a good, next man up, but with their secondary getting older and their draft class is more raw than ready...

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Florida Bills Fanatic RFA

Florida Bills Fanatic

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I'm not sold on the Cowgirls at five.  Their secondary will need to play much better for them to have a good season.  The O-line isn't the dominating force that it used to be.  Losing their center will negatively impact the group's performance.  I'm not even sure that they are better than Philly in what is a weak division. 

People shouldn't disregard the Steelers.  They have a good defense and are getting their QB back from injury.  Love him or hate him, Big Ben is the grease that makes that offense roll.  New England is probably on the list because of their past performance and people don't know what to expect.  They lost more than Brady and I expect them to struggle more on defense than they have in the past.

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C.Biscuit97 Hall of Famer

C.Biscuit97

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5 minutes ago, MOVALLEYRANDY said:

Schedule ?

Don't say that in front of Skip Bayless. Of course, now he's switched his allegiance to the Bucs from the pats, I think.

You take anything that guy says serious?  Dude is basically a clown and getting paid a ton for it.  It blows my mind how people even pay attention to him.  
 

And does that mean we like ESPN now?

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JerseyBills All Pro

JerseyBills

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I like that Pitt and Hou aren't up there. 

We were neck n neck with Hou last year but we upgraded and they downgraded imo. 

And ppl are acting like the almost 40 year old Big Ben is just going to come back and be his old self, after ANOTHER major injury.

Pitts defense is still great , but that O is a major question mark.

 

I believe Buff is the 3rd best AFC team right now and I believe the gap between us and Bal is closer than most think. Interested to see if that OL is as dominant without one of the best Gs in the game (Yanda,retired) . We played them super tough. You give us our upgrades in that game and I feel we win. We have the personnel to shut down Lamar and their run game .

 

Feels great to be a legit AFC contender!!

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Kirby Jackson Hall of Famer

Kirby Jackson

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37 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Baltimore will be a .500 team, New England won’t even make it to .500. There are other teams to keep an eye on like Indy and maybe Pitt or Cleveland. Besides KC there isn’t one team In the AFC that’s a tough matchup for the Bills. 

Baltimore has the easiest SOS in the NFL.

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twist_to_open RFA

twist_to_open

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Every team they listed made the playoffs last year except Dallas, who ESPN is infatuated with, and Tampa Bay, TB12 effect. History shows there is always a fairly large turnover of playoff teams each year. So I'm not buying any of it. It's a lazy fluff peice. Let them play the season out.

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Kirby Jackson Hall of Famer

Kirby Jackson

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19 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I hear ya. I just don’t buy that team. Total gut and I know that means nothing. 

Oh I think that they could regress but I’m not sure that they can win less than 10 games no matter what. They could take a step back, and a fairly significant one and be an 11 or 12 win team. The AFC South and the NFC East isn’t exactly murder’s row. Add the Pats to that and their path is pretty clear. I think that their division is better but even if they go 4-2 there and lose to the Chiefs there aren’t a lot more losses floating out there.

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Don Otreply All Pro

Don Otreply

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Great! We’re a top ten team, we are crushing the off season... ???

 

Go Bills!!!

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atlbillsfan1975 All Pro

atlbillsfan1975

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1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Oh I think that they could regress but I’m not sure that they can win less than 10 games no matter what. They could take a step back, and a fairly significant one and be an 11 or 12 win team. The AFC South and the NFC East isn’t exactly murder’s row. Add the Pats to that and their path is pretty clear. I think that their division is better but even if they go 4-2 there and lose to the Chiefs there aren’t a lot more losses floating out there.

Yep, for me it all comes down to how Lamar progresses. If he can’t sit back and pick teams apart, the Ravens will look a lot like they did against Tenn. Tenn has a solid D but figured out the scheme to keep Lamar confused. I think the AFC south has some tough defenses for Lamar to go against. The NFC East has similar physical defenses. 

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Paup 1995MVP Veteran

Paup 1995MVP

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12 hours ago, DCOrange said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29196114/2020-nfl-season-projections-chances-make-super-bowl-win-division-land-top-draft-spot-more

 

Top 10:

  1. Kansas City
  2. Baltimore
  3. San Francisco
  4. New Orleans
  5. Dallas
  6. Philadelphia
  7. Seattle
  8. Tampa Bay
  9. New England
  10. Buffalo

 

Buffalo edges New England out as the favorites in the AFC East (41.0% chance versus a 40.9% chance for New England) due to an easier schedule.

We are way too low at 10.  I put us ahead of the Pats Tampa Philly Dallas for sure.  And we are right there with the Seahawks.  I am putting us 5th behind KC Baltimore SF and NO.  And we will give those teams all they can handle.  The league will figure out Lamar Jackson and make him throw a whole lot more.  The Bills stuffed the Ravens offense pretty well.  Teams will follow that blueprint.  They will be good, but not as good as this past season.  We will be very good.  The team should have the mindset that we are going to win the division and be playing in the Super Bowl next February.  No more of this crap offense we have had for what seems like forever.  Everyone is exited about Josh Allen.  Well we haven't scored much since he took over.  This is the year!!  Time we show some swag.  Let the NFL know we have arrived.  Josh Norman will give us a little edge too.  It is going to be exciting.  Nothing less than 11-5 will do.  

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BuffaloMatt Veteran

BuffaloMatt

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21 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

I'm not sold on the Cowgirls at five.  Their secondary will need to play much better for them to have a good season.  The O-line isn't the dominating force that it used to be.  Losing their center will negatively impact the group's performance.  I'm not even sure that they are better than Philly in what is a weak division. 

People shouldn't disregard the Steelers.  They have a good defense and are getting their QB back from injury.  Love him or hate him, Big Ben is the grease that makes that offense roll.  New England is probably on the list because of their past performance and people don't know what to expect.  They lost more than Brady and I expect them to struggle more on defense than they have in the past.

Dak struggles under the weight of his contract and expectations. 

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Giuseppe Tognarelli Veteran

Giuseppe Tognarelli

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On 5/26/2020 at 11:25 AM, GunnerBill said:

Other than New England I make that top 10 about right. In the AFC I would be shocked if it isn't one if Baltimore, KC or Buffalo in the Superbowl. We are the third most likely of that trio but I just can't see anyone else I even give a shot to. The NFC is deeper but more jumbled at the top.

I'm very comfortable being the #3 team. That means one upset or QB injury and we're in the championship game, where anything can happen.

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y2zipper RFA

y2zipper

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There are some wonky things to me about the projections here. I think New England is way too high but outside of that the top ten is okay. I also think that Green Bay, Minnesota and Houston are a better set of teams than the Rams. 

 

Houston in particular at 24 is absurdly low for a team that's as well-coached as they are and for a team that's going to get superstar play out of Watson. 

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Beast All Pro

Beast

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We kicked the ever living ***** out of Dallas on their own turf, our young core will be a year older and we added Diggs....and the Cowboys are rated way better?

 

LMAO

 

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DCOrange Veteran

DCOrange

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1 hour ago, Beast said:

We kicked the ever living ***** out of Dallas on their own turf, our young core will be a year older and we added Diggs....and the Cowboys are rated way better?

 

LMAO

 

They have them as less than a win better. I don't think the gap is very large at all.

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Steve Billieve RFA

Steve Billieve

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On 5/26/2020 at 11:24 AM, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

So why is Buff 10 and NE*** 9? 

 

It's the unwritten law of American Media.  If you say something nice about the Bills you HAVE to rank the Pats immediately above them.

Think it has something to do with the deflategate settlement.

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