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DCOrange

ESPN Football Power Index 2020 Season Simulation

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Posted (edited)

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29196114/2020-nfl-season-projections-chances-make-super-bowl-win-division-land-top-draft-spot-more

 

Top 10:

  1. Kansas City
  2. Baltimore
  3. San Francisco
  4. New Orleans
  5. Dallas
  6. Philadelphia
  7. Seattle
  8. Tampa Bay
  9. New England
  10. Buffalo

 

Buffalo edges New England out as the favorites in the AFC East (41.0% chance versus a 40.9% chance for New England) due to an easier schedule.

Edited by DCOrange

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10 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Buffalo edges New England out as the favorites in the AFC East (41.0% chance versus a 40.9% chance for New England) due to an easier schedule.

 

So why is Buff 10 and NE*** 9? 

 

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Other than New England I make that top 10 about right. In the AFC I would be shocked if it isn't one if Baltimore, KC or Buffalo in the Superbowl. We are the third most likely of that trio but I just can't see anyone else I even give a shot to. The NFC is deeper but more jumbled at the top.

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3 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

So why is Buff 10 and NE*** 9? 

 

If I understand it correctly the rankings are their likelihood to win the Super Bowl based on the model. On paper the Bills have an easier schedule than the Pats which is why they are division favorites but not ahead of them in terms of the Super Bowl. FWIW, I’m on record as the Pats being a 6 win team but that’s the logic I think.

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Other than New England I make that top 10 about right. In the AFC I would be shocked if it isn't one if Baltimore, KC or Buffalo in the Superbowl. We are the third most likely of that trio but I just can't see anyone else I even give a shot to. The NFC is deeper but more jumbled at the top.

I agree here but give Pittsburgh and Cleveland slight chances at the Super Bowl. Things would have to go right in both cases but it isn’t impossible IMO. I’d give them combined less than a 5% chance I think (certainly less than 10%). 

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I am sick and tired of the New England Patriots love.  Tom Brady was New England and without him they will crumble.  If it isn't evident to anyone yet it will be after this season.

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15 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

So why is Buff 10 and NE*** 9? 

 

Basically, the rankings are the formulaic team ratings. They think New England is slightly better than Buffalo. But factor in the schedules and Buffalo is the slight favorite to win the division despite being a slightly worse team.

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15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If I understand it correctly the rankings are their likelihood to win the Super Bowl based on the model. On paper the Bills have an easier schedule than the Pats which is why they are division favorites but not ahead of them in terms of the Super Bowl. FWIW, I’m on record as the Pats being a 6 win team but that’s the logic I think.

 

 

LOL   OK,   I've seen other outlets say that NE* will be 7 to 9 win team. 

 

4 would suit me just fine :D 

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Its one thing that the Pats lost Brady, but hes not the only player the Pats lost. There were players like Van Noy, Collins, Shelton for instance who are no longer there. Yes, the Pats have always had a good, next man up, but with their secondary getting older and their draft class is more raw than ready...

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I'm not sold on the Cowgirls at five.  Their secondary will need to play much better for them to have a good season.  The O-line isn't the dominating force that it used to be.  Losing their center will negatively impact the group's performance.  I'm not even sure that they are better than Philly in what is a weak division. 

People shouldn't disregard the Steelers.  They have a good defense and are getting their QB back from injury.  Love him or hate him, Big Ben is the grease that makes that offense roll.  New England is probably on the list because of their past performance and people don't know what to expect.  They lost more than Brady and I expect them to struggle more on defense than they have in the past.

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2 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

So why is Buff 10 and NE*** 9? 

 

Schedule ?

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Dallas and NE are massively overrated.

Don't say that in front of Skip Bayless. Of course, now he's switched his allegiance to the Bucs from the pats, I think.

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5 minutes ago, MOVALLEYRANDY said:

Schedule ?

Don't say that in front of Skip Bayless. Of course, now he's switched his allegiance to the Bucs from the pats, I think.

You take anything that guy says serious?  Dude is basically a clown and getting paid a ton for it.  It blows my mind how people even pay attention to him.  
 

And does that mean we like ESPN now?

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Posted (edited)

I like that Pitt and Hou aren't up there. 

We were neck n neck with Hou last year but we upgraded and they downgraded imo. 

And ppl are acting like the almost 40 year old Big Ben is just going to come back and be his old self, after ANOTHER major injury.

Pitts defense is still great , but that O is a major question mark.

 

I believe Buff is the 3rd best AFC team right now and I believe the gap between us and Bal is closer than most think. Interested to see if that OL is as dominant without one of the best Gs in the game (Yanda,retired) . We played them super tough. You give us our upgrades in that game and I feel we win. We have the personnel to shut down Lamar and their run game .

 

Feels great to be a legit AFC contender!!

Edited by JerseyBills

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Baltimore will be a .500 team, New England won’t even make it to .500. There are other teams to keep an eye on like Indy and maybe Pitt or Cleveland. Besides KC there isn’t one team In the AFC that’s a tough matchup for the Bills. 

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37 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Baltimore will be a .500 team, New England won’t even make it to .500. There are other teams to keep an eye on like Indy and maybe Pitt or Cleveland. Besides KC there isn’t one team In the AFC that’s a tough matchup for the Bills. 

Baltimore has the easiest SOS in the NFL.

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1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Baltimore has the easiest SOS in the NFL.

And maybe the most talented roster in the league.

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12 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Baltimore has the easiest SOS in the NFL.

I hear ya. I just don’t buy that team. Total gut and I know that means nothing. 

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Every team they listed made the playoffs last year except Dallas, who ESPN is infatuated with, and Tampa Bay, TB12 effect. History shows there is always a fairly large turnover of playoff teams each year. So I'm not buying any of it. It's a lazy fluff peice. Let them play the season out.

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19 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I hear ya. I just don’t buy that team. Total gut and I know that means nothing. 

Oh I think that they could regress but I’m not sure that they can win less than 10 games no matter what. They could take a step back, and a fairly significant one and be an 11 or 12 win team. The AFC South and the NFC East isn’t exactly murder’s row. Add the Pats to that and their path is pretty clear. I think that their division is better but even if they go 4-2 there and lose to the Chiefs there aren’t a lot more losses floating out there.

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