Devin Singletary YPA vs 8Man box

[GoBills808]

Just now, YattaOkasan said:

Just to note he can be both 

1) Really good against a small sample set of 8 man boxes (thus not holding back his YPC).

2) Still faced a few number of 8 man boxes and have his YPC drop if he faced more.  

 

His vision and contact balance is still so amazing.  Cover 1 did the Pittsburgh game and while the fumbles were rough some of his vision is insane (he jump cuts away from a guy coming from behind him; how?).

It COULD be both, certainly, but from what I've seen it's more likely that it isn't. 

[Mat68]

He is a 3 down back.  He needs a back than can play any situation like himself.  I feel confident with him getting a carry 2 and 10, 3 and 10, 4th and goal.  He is so good at making the first man miss that he should be on the field when it matters.  I think another talented back is needed to give him rest.  You cant scheme and back a role in the offense over singeltary.

[Big Turk]

Singletary is going to be a star...last year was only the tip of the iceberg with him

[maryland-bills-fan]

.He didn't play in short yardage situations, so that inflated his yard per carry.  They used the QB or Gore for those.  He ran in a lot of 3rd and 25 situations and got 15 yards. Better punting field position and no risk of a pick6. The QB was used in short yardage situations rather than him. The QB had more than half the rushing yards of Singletary.

 

He was about 16th in the league in rushing if you give him credit for 4 games he missed. (expected for an undersized guy running mainly between the tackles).

 

I think yards gained is a good measure of a RB.  I think TD's scored are a good measure for a RB.  He is not top 10 in those- more like top 16.  He had 4 TD's total for the year.

 

We need a guy with break away speed and big play ability.  We need a guy who is good in the passing game.  We need a guy who can line up as a WR and be dangerous with single coverage. He was about #44 in RB receiving.  NO, the Bills are smart enough to have passed a lot to him if it were effective. That is not the excuse.

 

Singletayr is you complementary back and not the RB1A on a top team.

Edited April 24, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[maryland-bills-fan]

13 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

He is a 3 down back.  He needs a back than can play any situation like himself.  I feel confident with him getting a carry 2 and 10, 3 and 10, 4th and goal.  He is so good at making the first man miss that he should be on the field when it matters.  I think another talented back is needed to give him rest.  You cant scheme and back a role in the offense over singeltary.

They why did they use Gore and Allen in those goal line situations?  The bills schemed around his limitations and made use of what he did well.

[Gugny]

@GoBills808 .... I love you for this thread.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

@GoBills808 .... I love you for this thread.

Yes I know

[Gugny]

31 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Singletary is going to be a star...last year was only the tip of the iceberg with him

 

Absolutely agree.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Half or more of the examples are not 8 guys in the box.  There may be 8 guys in the picture but it is because the formation has a WR in motion or in close to the O-line.  This draws the defender in but also add an extra blocker - the WR.  A stacked box is when a team brings down an extra DB and leaves only 3 DBs in zone or cover zero in the backfield.  

[Royale with Cheese]

And some of you people wanted to sign Derrick Henry.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

56 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

They why did they use Gore and Allen in those goal line situations?  The bills schemed around his limitations and made use of what he did well.

Because McD falls in love with the wrong guys - see Murphy, Gore, DiMarco and Peterman

[GreggTX]

He certainly passes the eye test no matter what the numbers say. He is special. Bring in Carlos Hyde to back him up and we're strong at RB, IMO. What our running game really needs is a huge upgrade at RT and RG, but Beans has done nothing to improve the OL this offseason. Trent Williams appears appears to be the only option, but does Beane think he's a process guy? Would he even sign for the right price? Ford needs to move inside, but the prospect of starting Nsekhe or Williams at RT is pretty scary. We ranked pretty high in rushing yards as a team, but much of that was due to Allen's scrambling ability.

Edited April 24, 2020 by GreggTX

[Mango]

55 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Half or more of the examples are not 8 guys in the box.  There may be 8 guys in the picture but it is because the formation has a WR in motion or in close to the O-line.  This draws the defender in but also add an extra blocker - the WR.  A stacked box is when a team brings down an extra DB and leaves only 3 DBs in zone or cover zero in the backfield.  

I was thinking the same thing. Also a bunch of the stills are post snap not pre snap. You can’t take a picture of the field after they hand the ball off and yell “8 guys chasing the guy with the ball, must have stacked the box”. 

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

.He didn't play in short yardage situations, so that inflated his yard per carry.  They used the QB or Gore for those.  He ran in a lot of 3rd and 25 situations and got 15 yards. Better punting field position and no risk of a pick6. The QB was used in short yardage situations rather than him. The QB had more than half the rushing yards of Singletary.

 

He was about 16th in the league in rushing if you give him credit for 4 games he missed. (expected for an undersized guy running mainly between the tackles).

 

I think yards gained is a good measure of a RB.  I think TD's scored are a good measure for a RB.  He is not top 10 in those- more like top 16.  He had 4 TD's total for the year.

 

We need a guy with break away speed and big play ability.  We need a guy who is good in the passing game.  We need a guy who can line up as a WR and be dangerous with single coverage. He was about #44 in RB receiving.  NO, the Bills are smart enough to have passed a lot to him if it were effective. That is not the excuse.

 

Singletayr is you complementary back and not the RB1A on a top team.

Nope

[Prickly Pete]

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Just to note he can be both 

1) Really good against a small sample set of 8 man boxes (thus not holding back his YPC).

2) Still faced a few number of 8 man boxes and have his YPC drop if he faced more.  

 

His vision and contact balance is still so amazing.  Cover 1 did the Pittsburgh game and while the fumbles were rough some of his vision is insane (he jump cuts away from a guy coming from behind him; how?).

 

 

he makes guys nervous when he approaches, and then look silly.

 

Singletary has been making people take note. This guy has some nice  analysis, and the plays he shows aren't just TD's, mostly just regular runs, and he's not  some guy from Buffalo, acting like a homer. This guy even mentions that Singletary appears to have been gaining respect from opponents.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by 32ABBA

[MJS]

3 hours ago, The Dean said:

 

For the record, if he only had 8 plays and you looked at ALL of them, it isn't a "sample" it's a "census". And sample sizes don't mean anything when you have a verified census.

The 8 plays are a sample. 

 

Census is specifically having to do with people, I believe. I think what you are describing is the difference between a statistic and a parameter. Parameter is a characteristic of 100% of your population (population being a group of people, things, animals, or phenomena that share common characteristics.) A statistic is a characteristic of a sample of the population.

 

In this case, I think the true population would be the total carries of all running backs, perhaps ever, because we are trying to decide whether or not his averages are good or not, and that takes referencing basically all our knowledge about carries and their characteristics.

 

So in this case, 8 carries is an extremely small sample size. Even all his carries from last year are a small sample size (which makes sense because it takes at least a couple years of play for people to come to a consensus about a player, because our reference is our knowledge of players that came before and who are currently playing).

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, 32ABBA said:

 

 

he makes guys nervous when he approaches, and then look silly.

 

Singletary has been making people take note. This guy has some nice  analysis, and the plays he shows aren't just TD's, mostly just regular runs, and he's not  some guy from Buffalo, acting like a homer. This guy even mentions that Singletary appears to have been gaining respect from opponents.

 

 

 

 

Nice video! 

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, GreggTX said:

He certainly passes the eye test no matter what the numbers say. He is special. Bring in Carlos Hyde to back him up and we're strong at RB, IMO. What our running game really needs is a huge upgrade at RT and RG, but Beans has done nothing to improve the OL this offseason. Trent Williams appears appears to be the only option, but does Beane think he's a process guy? Would he even sign for the right price? Ford needs to move inside, but the prospect of starting Nsekhe or Williams at RT is pretty scary. We ranked pretty high in rushing yards as a team, but much of that was due to Allen's scrambling ability.

 

The biggest improvement in analytic studies with the offensive lines are made via continuity not bringing in new players necessarily.

[maryland-bills-fan]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Yes I know

Get a room you two.

[longtimebillsfan]

8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Recently @thebandit27 @Blokestradamus and I had a discussion about Singletary's sparkling 5.1 yards per carry (good for 4th in the league for qualifying RBs). The point of contention was that his average was inflated due to seeing a very low amount of 8man boxes, as illustrated by ESPN's NextGen stats ranking him dead last among RBs facing such defenses at a rate of only 5.3% of his total carries. For reference, Tevin Coleman faced the highest amount of 8man at 40.15% of his rushes. 

 

That is a large discrepancy. Singletary had 151 total attempts last season, and some quick math says he only faced what ESPN refers to as an '8 man box' eight times throughout the season. If true, that could explain his high YPA...he was getting carries vs nickel and taking advantage of some good playcalling from Daboll. Not having anything better to do I pulled up his highlight reel (more on this later) to see what it showed. Examples below-

 

...one of his first carries against the Jets, went for 21 yards. 

 

 another carry against the Jets, this one went for 13.

 

 

 gained 14 yards here

 

more to follow

 

 

 

It would be interesting to see what the league average is for rushing attempts vs 8 men in the box.

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 7-8 in the box is standard in the NFL

 

9 in the box is considered stacked

 

 

 

9 in the box happens around 20 - 30 times a season, mostly in goal-line stand type situations.

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

This is true.  They brought in Gore for those "need one yard for a TD or 1st down" plays.  Singletary ran a lot on 1st down, when the DE were wide to contain Allen and the defense had to defend against both pass and run.   The coaches were good. You set up every play to get the max yardage and most of the time it works.  But Singletary didn't have many plays were 3 yards got the first down, which would bring down his averge.

 

Also, the Bills played very conservative when they had a lead and at the end of the season.  If they were ahead in score and in a 3rd and 25,  they would often run a safe running play with Singletary, rather than risk a pick-6 or an incomplete.   So a 15 yard run padded Singletary's yards per carry, but didn't get a first down.  The other team would concede the unsuccessful run for NO first down.  The Bills would be okay with getting 15 more yard of field position before the punt and with taking a minute off the clock.

 

I have never been a fan of "how good his yards per carry" is as a measure of how good he is.  Total yards, for the primary runner is the metric there.  He was #22 in that (#17 if you gave him his average for the 4 games he missed as injured).  That is not good enough if you are going to use your RB as a weapon to beat other teams. It is okay if you just want to look good an flirt with the playoffs.

 

 

Right, totally. Just to buttress your argument here, could you come up with, say four or five examples of the situation that you argue "often" happened ... where he got 15 yards to pad his stats but didn't get the first down? We'll wait.

 

That's a ridiculous point. That may have happened one or two times but every team in the league pads the stats of their backs in that way when it's near the end of the game and they're ahead. But they also degrade the RB stats by running more than they pass late in the game which makes them much more predictable. (For ex, in the first quarter, KC passed 68% of the time, highest in the league, and in the 4th quarter 47%, 29th highest.)  https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situational-run-pass-ratios--off-.html  Buffalo's YPA in the 4th quarter was 0.7 YPA lower than in the first quarter. Singletary's YPA didn't benefit from running late in the game.

 

Yards per carry isn't just a good measure of an RB's performance, it's the best measure. Not perfect, but absolutely the best if you have to choose one measure. Arguably the single worst measure is total yards. It does mean something for the guys who got a ton of carries ... if you got a ton of carries and your YPA is still high, that's impressive. But for everyone else it means far far less than YPA. YPA correlates to effectiveness and effectiveness is what you want from a back.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

They why did they use Gore and Allen in those goal line situations?  The bills schemed around his limitations and made use of what he did well.

 

 

First, they didn't always use Gore and Allen. Singletary had a very nice 2.5 yard TD run against Washington. As for why they used Allen, it's for several reasons, first because when he scrambles he can sometimes turn passes into running TDs, 2nd because running sneaks can be very effective at scoring if teams don't fill the middle with bodies and because forcing them to do so can create problems for them elsewhere. Like any quick-hitting play sneaks can surprise and be very effective, and RPO plays stress the defense knowing they have to defend both run and pass.

 

As for why they used Gore, they seem to have a philosophical liking for big strong vertical backs in some situations. Plus it was very obvious that they absolutely loved Gore.

 

That they "schemed around [Singletary's] weaknesses" is purely your assumption. They might as easily have been scheming around defensive tendencies, not to mention Allen's, the OL's and Gore's perceived strengths. Or simply playing to their own philosophies about heavy backs in certain situations. So far every year they've had at least one big pounding back on the roster even when their evasive back was by far their best. Was it because they were "scheming around Singletary's weaknesses] that they ran Allen for 8 TDs ... in 2018 when Singletary was still in college? Or is it just something that they like as a philosophy? No, you're right, it's probably that they were putting that idea in place as practice for when they drafted Singletary the next  year.

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Charles Romes]

You can’t put 8 in the box against Allen. His arm is too strong. 

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

You can’t put 8 in the box against Allen. His arm is too strong. 

 

But he hasn't consistently hit deep despite that. If he can sharpen that up and it was a little better the last 5 or 6 games then it will force safeties out of the box and then Devin and whoever we draft in this draft will benefit from the same advantage as Patriots backs have for many years - light boxes. 

[Billy Claude]

Are we really to the point where people believe that ESPN will go to the trouble of manipulating data just because they had a player pegged as a (let's say) a 5th rounder rather than a third round?    

[GunnerBill]

50 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

Are we really to the point where people believe that ESPN will go to the trouble of manipulating data just because they had a player pegged as a (let's say) a 5th rounder rather than a third round?    

 

Apparently so.

[Mango]

2 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

Are we really to the point where people believe that ESPN will go to the trouble of manipulating data just because they had a player pegged as a (let's say) a 5th rounder rather than a third round?    

Yeah, if anything I think in 2020 peoples memories are shorter. With Twitter, insta, etc. it’s about what do you think right now, nobody is screaming for consistency. I highly doubt that there is some guy at ESPN making sure that all of their stats line up with draft day prognostications 3 years down the road. Could you imagine the work that would take to do that on a scale of NFL rosters. The tin foil hat it takes to get to a place where you think ESPN is out to get your QB, RB, DE, etc. because of a draft day prediction is wild. 

Edited April 24, 2020 by Mango

[ComradeKayAdams]

12 hours ago, 32ABBA said:

He is a superstar in waiting. Just give him the ball.

 

Superstar? As in future first-team All-Pro? It's possible. Everything about him is potentially elite, with the sole exception of breakaway speed.

 

Fortunately, Buffalo's offense won't have to rely on Singletary becoming elite. He just needs to do his job moving the chains, catching screens out of the backfield, and performing basic pass blocks. Daboll is building the offense around Allen and probably prefers a RB-by-committee approach. Add Carlos Hyde or his draft equivalent (Zack Moss?) as the power back, Yeldon as the third-down back, Jones as a special teams ace, DiMarco as whatever he does, and Wade as a wild-card. Not a bad group!

[thebandit27]

3 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

Are we really to the point where people believe that ESPN will go to the trouble of manipulating data just because they had a player pegged as a (let's say) a 5th rounder rather than a third round?    

The most hilarious thing about it is that the numbers don’t come from ESPN; they come from the league website.

[GunnerBill]

47 minutes ago, Mango said:

Yeah, if anything I think in 2020 peoples memories are shorter. With Twitter, insta, etc. it’s about what do you think right now, nobody is screaming for consistency. I highly doubt that there is some guy at ESPN making sure that all of their stats line up with draft day prognostications 3 years down the road. Could you imagine the work that would take to do that on a scale of NFL rosters. The tin foil hat it takes to get to a place where you think ESPN is out to get your QB, RB, DE, etc. because of a draft day prediction is wild. 

 

Who said anything about doing it across all NFL rosters? They just mark down the Bills players, mark up the Pats players and then call it a wrap and head to the bar. 

 

#TSWfacts

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

The most hilarious thing about it is that the numbers don’t come from ESPN; they come from the league website.

 

Yea I was going to say right at the start I thought NextGen was an NFL think not an ESPN thing. 

[Buffalo716]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

9 in the box happens around 20 - 30 times a season, mostly in goal-line stand type situations.

8-9 in the box is not uncommon in running Downs especially vs good RBs

 

AP has faced 9 man boxes for tons of his career. They creep down both safeties for him.  

 

Seattle has played an 8-9 man box hybrid for years , it's always been why they've been so successful stopping the run . 9 may not be standard across all 32 teams but 9 come into the box for some teams a decent amount

 

 

[GoBills808]

4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

The most hilarious thing about it is that the numbers don’t come from ESPN; they come from the league website.

Yes you are correct, the nextgen stats are from the NFL and not ESPN. I will edit the post

[Doc]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Right, totally. Just to buttress your argument here, could you come up with, say four or five examples of the situation that you argue "often" happened ... where he got 15 yards to pad his stats but didn't get the first down? We'll wait.

 

That's a ridiculous point. That may have happened one or two times but every team in the league pads the stats of their backs in that way when it's near the end of the game and they're ahead. But they also degrade the RB stats by running more than they pass late in the game which makes them much more predictable. (For ex, in the first quarter, KC passed 68% of the time, highest in the league, and in the 4th quarter 47%, 29th highest.)  https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situational-run-pass-ratios--off-.html  Buffalo's YPA in the 4th quarter was 0.7 YPA lower than in the first quarter. Singletary's YPA didn't benefit from running late in the game.

 

Yards per carry isn't just a good measure of an RB's performance, it's the best measure. Not perfect, but absolutely the best if you have to choose one measure. Arguably the single worst measure is total yards. It does mean something for the guys who got a ton of carries ... if you got a ton of carries and your YPA is still high, that's impressive. But for everyone else it means far far less than YPA. YPA correlates to effectiveness and effectiveness is what you want from a back.

 

I informed him of this before, but he either forgot it or conveniently ignored it.  Last year Devin only carried the ball 5 times on 3rd and 10+ and gained 20 yards.  That actually lowered his average, albeit slightly.

[Thurman#1]

Just now, Doc said:

 

I informed him of this before, but he either forgot it or conveniently ignored it.  Last year Devin only carried the ball 5 times on 3rd and 10+ and gained 20 yards.  That actually lowered his average, albeit slightly.

 

 

Heh heh. Interesting, Doc.

 

And telling as well. 

[Thurman#1]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

8-9 in the box is not uncommon in running Downs especially vs good RBs

 

AP has faced 9 man boxes for tons of his career. They creep down both safeties for him.  

 

Seattle has played an 8-9 man box hybrid for years , it's always been why they've been so successful stopping the run . 9 may not be standard across all 32 teams but 9 come into the box for some teams a decent amount

 

 

 

 

8 - 9, yeah.

 

9? It's very rare. That would leave only two guys to play outside/deep. Assuming only two receivers, it would still mean the CBs were on an island. And for safeties to be up closer is common these days, but actually in the box is really not. While it happens, it's mostly on goal line stands.

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Heh heh. Interesting, Doc.

 

And telling as well. 

 

And mind you, his performance last year was with the 15th rated run blocking OL.

 

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

8 - 9, yeah.

 

9? It's very rare. That would leave only two guys to play outside/deep. Assuming only two receivers, it would still mean the CBs were on an island. And for safeties to be up closer is common these days, but actually in the box is really not. While it happens, it's mostly on goal line stands.

 

Yup.

[Buffalo716]

21 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

8 - 9, yeah.

 

9? It's very rare. That would leave only two guys to play outside/deep. Assuming only two receivers, it would still mean the CBs were on an island. And for safeties to be up closer is common these days, but actually in the box is really not. While it happens, it's mostly on goal line stands.

There's no actual statistics to argue this, but I've been around the game my whole life and seen plenty of 9 man boxes outside of the goal line

 

Is it standard no, but it's not as rare as you think especially with 12 personnel or 22

 

If you only have one or two wide receivers out, you are getting a super stacked box 

 

It not unheard of tho not normal. You get 3rd and inches and offense goes heavy... You can expect 9 in the box

 

I'm not trying to argue it's a base defense or anything

 

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by Buffalo716

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

And mind you, his performance last year was with the 15th rated run blocking OL.

 

 

Yup.

Well, that line must’ve been pretty solid, because Singletary ranked 7th in the NFL in yards-before-contact-per-carry with 2.7.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/rushing_advanced.htm

Either that, or that’s another positive effect from him seeing very few 8-man boxes (#pernextgenbutnotgobills808)

Edited April 24, 2020 by thebandit27

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Well, that line must’ve been pretty solid, because Singletary ranked 7th in the NFL in yards-before-contact-per-carry with 2.7.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/rushing_advanced.htm

Either that, or that’s another positive effect from him seeing very few 8-man boxes (#pernextgenbutnotgobills808)

 

It was PFR's ranking.  And according to this, while he faced a stacked front just 7.3% of the time, he averaged 5.8 YPC.