I expect Beane to continue his method of trading up in the early draft.

[maryland-bills-fan]

Draft history of the Bills for the last 3 years.

==================================================================================

2017

Round 1 pick 27 ……….. Tre White.   Bills trade down from 10 to 27 and get KC’s 2018 #1 pick. We get a starter as expected this high in the draft.  The cupboard is bare- get a 1^st round pick player, a #1 for next year’s QB and a 3^rd round pick (used to move up)

Round 2 pick 5  ………. Zay Jones     TRADED UP.  Used 3^rd round pick to move up to take 4^th best receiver in draft

Round 2 pick 31 …….  Darold Dawkins.  TRADED UP.  Used 3^rd round pick and both of 5^th round picks to get “one of the last offensive linemen with obvious starting potential as a rookie”

Round 3   NO PICKS    SPENT THESE PICKS TO MOVE UP IN DRAFT TO GET SUPERIOR PLAYERS

Round 4     NO PICKS    SPENT THIS PICK TO MOVE UP IN DRAFT TO GET SUPERIOR PLAYERS

Round 5, Pick 19   Matt Milano, LB, Boston College.  They took a chance on a high upside guy. Picked at #163, whereas most expectations had him as a #229

Round 5, Pick 28     Nathan Peterman, QB, Pittsburgh    Low, “need a guy pick”. No longer around.

 

Round 6, Pick 11     Tanner Vallejo, LB, Boise State           Low, “need a guy pick”. No longer around.

2018

Round 1 pick 7       Josh Allen.   TRADED UP .  Used two second round draft picks to move up from #12 to #7

Round 1 pick 16   Tremain Edwards   TRADED UP.   Used a 3^rd round pick (got a 5^th back) to move up from 22 to 16.

Round 2   NO PICKS    SPENT THESE PICKS TO MOVE UP IN DRAFT TO GET SUPERIOR PLAYERS

Round 3  (96)   Harrison Philllips DT.   BPA and also a need because of Kyle Williams retirement

Round 4 (121)   Taron Johnson CB   nickel CB        Often ranked as #163 so draft a round early

Round 5 (154)     Siran Neal   CB    backup nickel CB   Played CB, S and LB in college

Round 5 (166)    Wyatt Teller  G    low round o-lineman. Traded away.

Round 6 (187)    RR McCloud WR              4^th string WR and gadget play

Round 7 (255)  Austin Proehl  WR  gone

 

 

2019

Round 1 pick 9   Ed Oliver DT    We could have used a DE here but went with BPA who could be special at DT.

Round 2 pick 6   Cody Ford G     TRADED UP.  Used a 5^th round pick (15) to move up from #40 to #38.

Round 3 pick 10  Singletary  RB    To share touches with HOF Mike McCoy. 4^th RB selected.

Round 3 (96)   Dawson Knox TE   TRADED UP.  Used both 4^th round picks (112, 131)

Round 4    NO PICKS    SPENT THESE PICKS TO MOVE UP IN DRAFT TO GET SUPERIOR PLAYERS

Round 5 (147)   Vosean Josephy LB.    Rated maybe 9^th best LB, a 3-4 round guy. Drafted on potential, needs to grow. Injured 2019.  “red shirt” ?

Round 6 (181) Jaquan Johnson  S    2^nd string strong safety

Round 7 (225) Darrly Johnson LB      gone   OPPS. This guy is the DE Daryl Johnson and he is still on the team as a good potential player.

Round 7 (228)  Sweeney TE    4^th string TE

=================================================================================

2020    so far

Round 1  Stefon Diggs WR     TRADED UP     Bills used their R1(#22),  2021 R4(?), R5 (155) and R6(207) picks . They got a number one receiver, which is a better WR then they could have gotten in the 2020 draft.

Round 2  (#54)

Round 3 (#86)

Round 4 (#128)

Round 5 (#155) 4    NO PICK    SPENT PICK TO MOVE UP IN DRAFT

 

Round 5 (#167)

Round 6 (#188)

Round 6 (#201)    NO PICK    SPENT PICK TO MOVE UP IN DRAFT

Round 7 (#239)

=====================================================================

Okay. In 2017, 2018  2019 Beane has the following record in the first three rounds.

2017: 2 of 3 picks were traded up

2018:  2 of 2 picks were traded up

2019:  2 of 4 picks were traded up

6 of 9 traded up= 66%.   He is one for 3 this year and we haven’t even gotten to the draft yet.   Notice that every year, he has traded up twice in the top of the draft?  Notice that he talks about “touchdown makers” and “difference makers”.    Notice that the defense has been filled up in free agency and the offensive line has been also had veterans added?

Edited April 1, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[Dablitzkrieg]

Darnold Dawkins is a bust

[maryland-bills-fan]

Here is the formula for using our draft picks to move up from #54.     Beane has done two trade ups in every year that he has been here.   I guess I'll also work out what would happen if he stays at #54 and moves up from #86 and post it later on this thread.

 

Quote

 

DRAFT PICK            # PICKED      POINTS          CASE1            CASE 2           CASE 3           CASE 4       CASE5        

ROUND 2                  54                    360                  YES                YES                YES                YES               YES

ROUND 3                  86                    160                  YES                YES                x                      YES               x

ROUND 4                  118                  58                    x                      YES                YES                x                     x

ROUND 5                  150                  31                    x                      x                      YES                x                    x

#2 2021                   #54?                180                  x                      x                      x                      YES               x

======================================================================================

We get:                                                                       #38                  #33                  #45                  #31          #54

Move up=                                                                    16                    21                    9                      23                 0

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

Thanks Maryland 

I love looking back at these summaries. I forgot they traded up to Dawson Knox. If that’s true then I’m guessing the coaching staff is going to be under some pressure to prove the front office didn’t make a mistake. We should expect much more from Knox this season. 

I also believe that Vosean Joseph is an X Factor in 2020. He’s like having an extra draft pick this year but one that’s already fully familiar with the Bills defense.

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Darnold Dawkins is a bust

So was Jones.    I seem to remember that the Bills upgraded their scouting department after the 2018 season- which is after they saw how the 2017 draft class did.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/05/07/buffalo-bills-nfl-scouts-dennis-hickey/

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/bills-hire-gray-college-scouting-director-finalize-scouting-staff

The picks have been getting better and seem to be tuned to getting a few all-pro potential players in the draft rather than depth- at lease in the early rounds.

 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I will always choose a GM who believes in his scouting and player assessments that he has the balls to trade up for a player that he wants. 
 

I am very close to buying a jersey with the GM’s name on the back.

[DefenseWins]

Beane wasn't here yet to conduct the 2017 draft. He didn't arrive until later. McD allegedly told Whaley to trade the #10 pick to KC that it used to draft Mahomes and The Bills got Tre White out of in addition to KC's next year's 1st and 3rd rd picks.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandon_Beane

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 minute ago, DefenseWins said:

Beane wasn't here yet to conduct the 2017 draft. He didn't arrive until later. McD allegedly told Whaley to trade the #10 pick to KC that it used to draft Mahomes and The Bills got Tre White out of in addition to KC's next year's 1st and 3rd rd picks.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandon_Beane

 

 

OK. I'm sure your right.

[Markaf431]

Going to be that person.  Can you at least spell his name right?- The title is bothering me.  (yes I know i'm being a jerk and I apologize)

[freddyjj]

24 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Darold Dawkins.

Our LT is Dion Dawkins.

 

Though this guy may have been able to play there too!

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

Good work. I agree. I don’t think they trade up into the first, though I do think it is realistic that they could get to 32 with the Chiefs. I think at the end of the the day they come home with 4-5 draft picks at most. I guessing multiple picks between rounds 2-5. 
 

just a note that Daryll Johnson is still here as a developmental end. Rotated in a bit last year and has potential. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

3 minutes ago, Markaf431 said:

Going to be that person.  Can you at least spell his name right?- The title is bothering me.  (yes I know i'm being a jerk and I apologize)

Brandon Beane.   I had an English teacher as a junior in High School. Her name was Miss English, oddly enough.  Speeling tests were about 20% of you're grade and I have some short term memorizations limitations aunt can't speel well to save my life.  It cost me a letter grade in that class.  Since them, I have always considered spelling to be sort ov a contact sport and a chancre to show you're originalities.

[MrEpsYtown]

13 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I will always choose a GM who believes in his scouting and player assessments that he has the balls to trade up for a player that he wants. 
 

I am very close to buying a jersey with the GM’s name on the back.

I love the fact that he is willing to go get the guy he wants where his value is. It is a very stark contrast to the days of GM Nix freaking out that the receivers were going and trading up and severely overpaying to grab TJ Graham. 

Edited April 1, 2020 by MrEpsYtown

[freddyjj]

32 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

HOF Mike McCoy.

Having fun now.  The Packers DT?   Think you meant Lesean aka Shady

[cage]

I"m not sure he has the ammo to trade-up early on.  I don't see him moving up in the 2nd as it would likely cost a 3rd or 4th, that's probably more than he'd want to give away.  Moving up in the 3rd/4th if it costs a 5th or 6th is certainly possible

[DCOrange]

I personally wouldn't trade up, but I know Beane almost certainly will. If he must, I think trading up from the 4th to get back into the 3rd probably makes the most sense. Won't hurt too much in terms of what we give up but that could allow us to get 3 very good prospects.

[Hardhatharry]

I think Beane is looking for only 3-4 picks out of this draft. I think he wants 1-2 that have a chance to start immediately.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

14 minutes ago, cage said:

I"m not sure he has the ammo to trade-up early on.  I don't see him moving up in the 2nd as it would likely cost a 3rd or 4th, that's probably more than he'd want to give away.  Moving up in the 3rd/4th if it costs a 5th or 6th is certainly possible

 

We also traded a pick in 2021 - so i would think picks for that draft are off limits now.  

[DrDawkinstein]

The only thing working against this idea is the notion the most GMs wont be as willing to trade in this draft due to the lack of interviews and visits, and also the limited staff teams are likely to have in the war room.

 

The NFL isnt going to allow a room of 15 guys working the phones. It looks like they are going to allow 5 or so FO members to be in the team war room.

 

Beane may want to trade up, but may have a tougher time than usual finding a partner, and a tougher time than usual getting a deal done in time.

[Hardhatharry]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

The only thing working against this idea is the notion the most GMs wont be as willing to trade in this draft due to the lack of interviews and visits, and also the limited staff teams are likely to have in the war room.

 

The NFL isnt going to allow a room of 15 guys working the phones. It looks like they are going to allow 5 or so FO members to be in the team war room.

 

Beane may want to trade up, but may have a tougher time than usual finding a partner, and a tougher time than usual getting a deal done in time.

Nah I don't see that as anything to worry about. Visits are the smallest part of the process. Also teams are still doing virtual visits so things are going along just fine.

[Stank_Nasty]

50 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

So was Jones.    I seem to remember that the Bills upgraded their scouting department after the 2018 season- which is after they saw how the 2017 draft class did.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/05/07/buffalo-bills-nfl-scouts-dennis-hickey/

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/bills-hire-gray-college-scouting-director-finalize-scouting-staff

The picks have been getting better and seem to be tuned to getting a few all-pro potential players in the draft rather than depth- at lease in the early rounds.

 

He’s mocking you man. Notice he specifically put “darnold” Dawkins is a bust? ... because you called him darnold in your OP. 
 

nobody thinks our actual Dawkins is a bust. 
 

and IMO the 17 draft class was just fine. We got our franchise LT and a 1st team all pro corner. 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[DrDawkinstein]

8 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

Nah I don't see that as anything to worry about. Visits are the smallest part of the process. Also teams are still doing virtual visits so things are going along just fine.

 

Visits are the less important part of all that. Limited staff on draft day is the real key that might change Business As Usual.

[Hardhatharry]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Visits are the less important part of all that. Limited staff on draft day is the real key that might change Business As Usual.

Maybe but everyone can be in the room without actually being in the room with the technology we now have.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Hardhatharry said:

Maybe but everyone can be in the room without actually being in the room with the technology we now have.

 

You'd think so. But have you seen any of the live Bills pressers streamed online? ??

[Hardhatharry]

9 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

You'd think so. But have you seen any of the live Bills pressers streamed online? ??

It's funny but I wanted to find out so I asked Chris Brown about that on twitter. They do the mic thing on purpose b.c the reporters want the questions they ask to not be ruined for them to do write ups. It used to and still does drive me crazy but I guess I understand.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Hardhatharry

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

It's funny but I wanted to find out so I asked Chris Brown about that on twitter. They do the mic thing on purpose b.c the reporters want the questions they ask to not be ruined for them to do write ups. It used to and still does drive me crazy but I guess I understand.

 

It isnt even that. I can remember a few where the video would cut out or freeze, or even drop completely. That may have been a few years ago now, so hopefully with Pegula bucks they upgraded from dial-up to cable internet.

[Charles Romes]

I would like them to stay put this year and trust their ability to pick the BPA at each slot, or even trade down. More good players.  The move up to get picks have not outperformed the staying put picks. 

[Don Otreply]

 

 

Being that Beane stated that he doesn’t want to draft guys who will likely not make the team, and still having seven picks, it would only make sense that he would be looking to trade up, the deal is, you gotta have a partner for that dance. We shall see.

 

Go Bills!!!

[maryland-bills-fan]

28 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

He’s mocking you man. Notice he specifically put “darnold” Dawkins is a bust? ... because you called him darnold in your OP. 
 

nobody thinks our actual Dawkins is a bust. 
 

and IMO the 17 draft class was just fine. We got our franchise LT and a 1st team all pro corner. 

Well thanks. That is irritating but not the worst thing that has every happened.  I guess it is easier to sit back and make cracks, than to do some work to present a new thread on the site.

[Hardhatharry]

3 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Well thanks. That is irritating but not the worst thing that has every happened.  I guess it is easier to sit back and make cracks, than to do some work to present a new thread on the site.

Just a joke I don't think he meant anything by it.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

I personally wouldn't trade up, but I know Beane almost certainly will. If he must, I think trading up from the 4th to get back into the 3rd probably makes the most sense. Won't hurt too much in terms of what we give up but that could allow us to get 3 very good prospects.

I tend to agree with you.  There are two things we can't predict.  First, we don't know if there is someone that Beane really really wants that gets within his range to make a trade in any round at any reasonable price.  Secondly, we don't know if there is a position group that Beane feels a need to have talent added to it.  This could happen if there is a run in the draft with a limited number of decent prospects, like DE.

[OldTimer1960]

In the years that you cited, the Bills had considerably more “draft capital” than they do this year.  I do expect them to try to trade up using their 5th and later picks, but I don’t expect a big move up in the 2nd because I don’t think they will want to give up their 3rd to do so.

 

i can see sitting where they are in the 2nd and maybe moving up a bit in round 3 or trying for a big move up in round 4.  There may be some guys left to start day 3 that are really sticking out on their board - perhaps at WR, RB or maybe CB that they might be willing to part with their 5th, 6th and 7th for.

[Cal]

I wouldn't mind trading up for a edge rusher like Espenza or Matos. Otherwise stay put

Edited April 1, 2020 by Cal

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, freddyjj said:

Our LT is Dion Dawkins.

 

Though this guy may have been able to play there too!

 

 

Oh man, he was a monster - I remember watching him play back in the era of dominant Centers in the NBA.

[Einstein's Dog]

I can see what the OP is suggesting.  I think trade ups to  get about 3 or 4 good players with tracks for contributions.  I'm hoping for a 2020 contributing RB, a WR to be developed, and an Edge for the future if possible.

 

Seems obvious to me that the FO is deliberately saving a spot for drafting a contributing RB.  They must have their evaluations and I expect to see one nabbed in the 2 or 3 round.  Might depend on how the draft breaks.  For instance, if Tampa doesn't select an RB in round 2 it might just be enough to let the Bills pass on an RB and select another area (I hope DE or maybe developmental WR).  Then trade up in the 3rd to pick before Tampa and get one of the RBs they are targeting.

[DrDawkinstein]

35 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

 

 

Being that Beane stated that he doesn’t want to draft guys who will likely not make the team, and still having seven picks, it would only make sense that he would be looking to trade up, the deal is, you gotta have a partner for that dance. We shall see.

 

Go Bills!!!

 

6 picks left right now. And with half of them being 6th and 7th rounders, they dont really give us a lot of value to move that far up in the earlier rounds.

 

I guess I could see him packaging our 4th and a 6th to move up a few slots in the 4th, but I dont see how we can reasonably move up in the 2nd or 3rd and still get 3 quality picks out of the draft.

[RyanC883]

the interesting thing about this draft, is who do you trade up for. 

 

If we trade-up my guess is for an OT.  OT in my opinion is the best position to have a starter on a rookie deal after QB.  This would let us keep Dawkins, and have a rookie OT and Josh Allen together for a long time.  

 

If not OT, perhaps a trade-up for LB Murray from Oklahoma to complete the LB corp?

 

I'm not sure I see an edge I'd trade up for.  (Chaisson appears overrated, IMO.  Total lack of production on stacked LSU D, and would likely cost too much).  I'd rather grab Weaver in the 2nd and trade up back into the 2nd for another impact player. 

 

 RB and WR appear too deep to trade-up, unless there is someone you absolutely love above the rest (and going Weaver first allows you to trade back into the second).  

 

 

[Dablitzkrieg]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

So was Jones.    I seem to remember that the Bills upgraded their scouting department after the 2018 season- which is after they saw how the 2017 draft class did.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/05/07/buffalo-bills-nfl-scouts-dennis-hickey/

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/bills-hire-gray-college-scouting-director-finalize-scouting-staff

The picks have been getting better and seem to be tuned to getting a few all-pro potential players in the draft rather than depth- at lease in the early rounds.

 

I think you missed the point chief.  It is Dion, not Darnold

[PIZ]

3 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Darnold Dawkins is a bust

However, Darold Dawkins is not. 
 

 

[Lurker]

Based on the draft value chart, the Bills could move up 16 spots, to 38th, by trading their third (#86).   Or up four spots to #50 by trading their fourth (#128).     They could move up eight spots in the third, to #78, by trading their fourth.   

 

This suggests that trading pick #86 is the only one that allows a significant value move up the board.   So if they sit pat in round two, I doubt we'll see much moving around in latter rounds, unless it's to jump ahead 1-2 slots to prevent another team from taking their guy...