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Are there any high risk players worth a gamble?


HOUSE

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This guy has a ton of talent but they keep finding weed in his car. But he says its all behind him now :rolleyes:

26 years old, former basket ball player, big and can make the tough catches against smaller DBs.

 

 

Edited by HOUSE
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Just now, mattynh said:

I think AJ Green is the risky guy to talk about.  High price, high output if healthy.....the risk obviously is IF HEALTHY.   Green Beckham does not seem like a McBeane type, but the risk would be low, he would not require a monster contract.

 

Minimum deal, prove it contract, any trouble SEE YA !

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15 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

This guy has a ton of talent but they keep finding weed in his car. But he says its all behind him now :rolleyes:

26 years old, former basket ball player, big and can make the tough catches against smaller DBs.

 

 

 Dorial Green Beckham hasn’t played since the 2016 season.  Why would you want to bother?  He’s not even playing in the CFL or XFL.  Hard pass.

 

In general, I’ve got no problem taking small gambles on potentially big payoffs.  They usually don’t work out, but that’s why you draft those players on day 3.  Or sign them to an incentive laden contract with low guarantees. 

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I think Green has a lot of hard miles on him.

 

Just think about playing the scavengers and squeelers 2 times a year for your career.

 

They like to hit hard and punishing the Bengals best weapon would be high on the to do list.

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34 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

This guy has a ton of talent but they keep finding weed in his car. But he says its all behind him now :rolleyes:

26 years old, former basket ball player, big and can make the tough catches against smaller DBs.

 

 

 

He was waved by the Eagles in June 2017, before his two most recent weed offenses

Hasn't played since the 2016 season

 

When he did play, catch rate <50% and his best year (of the two he played) was 549 yds. 

 

There are plenty of WR FA with better stats who have played more recently and don't have his baggage.  He seems to fall in the category "guys who haven't shown enough to be worth the risk"

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12 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Don't we have someone like him on the roster already...aka Duke Williams?

 

Negative, Duke 1) has not been arrested 2x for weed since the last time he played 2) spent time on a 53 man roster last season 3) caught 63% of balls thrown at him 4) in 4 games, gained 166 yds which projects to >600 yds in a 16 game season

 

29 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

 

Minimum deal, prove it contract, any trouble SEE YA !

 

But you can bring in players who have shown as much or more, and who don't have his baggage.  Why even give him a 90 spot vs someone who's played more recently and shown similar?

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Negative, Duke 1) has not been arrested 2x for weed since the last time he played 2) spent time on a 53 man roster last season 3) caught 63% of balls thrown at him 4) in 4 games, gained 166 yds which projects to >600 yds in a 16 game season

 

I was basing my statement on "big and can make the tough catches against smaller DBs."  Who is also a risk coming from the CFL and was on the practice roster the majority of the year.

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23 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 Dorial Green Beckham hasn’t played since the 2016 season.  Why would you want to bother?  He’s not even playing in the CFL or XFL.  Hard pass.

 

In general, I’ve got no problem taking small gambles on potentially big payoffs.  They usually don’t work out, but that’s why you draft those players on day 3.  Or sign them to an incentive laden contract with low guarantees. 

 

Probably not allowed in Canada....lol

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2 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

I was basing my statement on "big and can make the tough catches against smaller DBs."  Who is also a risk coming from the CFL and was on the practice roster the majority of the year.

 

? Duke only played 4 games.  But he was on the 53-man roster for 12 games, only on the practice squad the first 4.

 

But if Dorial Green-Beckham had beat feet to a CFL roster and played his ass off the last 3 seasons with no trouble, I could be more of the "take a look" mind.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

? Duke only played 4 games.  But he was on the 53-man roster for 12 games, only on the practice squad the first 4.

 

Fair enough; barely SAW THE FIELD.

4 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

I was basing my statement on "big and can make the tough catches against smaller DBs."  Who is also a risk coming from the CFL and was on the practice roster the majority of the year.

 

Then again, can he really make the tough catches?  

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I don't expect Beane to take on any high risk players.  I can't think of one that is worth spending money to get.  AJ Green is a decent guy but has developed an injury history that is typical for players his age.  When you look back at the recent moves made by the Bills, they haven't signed any head cases or players with any red flag character issues.  There are other low risk options available to address the Bill's roster issues.

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5 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

I don't expect Beane to take on any high risk players.  I can't think of one that is worth spending money to get.  AJ Green is a decent guy but has developed an injury history that is typical for players his age.  When you look back at the recent moves made by the Bills, they haven't signed any head cases or players with any red flag character issues.  There are other low risk options available to address the Bill's roster issues.

They signed some injury risk players to decent money such as Trent Murphy and Kroft.

Edited by Buffalo_Stampede
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47 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Fair enough; barely SAW THE FIELD.

Then again, can he really make the tough catches?  

 

Duke made some tough catches.  He missed some he could have had.  He did better actually than a bunch of guys we had previously or proposed as alternatives (like D G-B.  or Devin Funchess in all but the 3rd of his 5 seasons).

 

He's functionally a rookie in the NFL.   Many of us give Dawson Knox a "pass" on literally dropping 1 out of every 5 passes thrown in his direction (roughly 1 out of 4 catchable throws) because "rookie and he'll get better".  So there's a chance if Duke is motivated and working his butt off, he'll get better.

 

I love me some Dawson Knox and I hope so too, but I don't want the outcome next year to ride on hopes for improvement.   Same with Duke.

 

I would like to see upgrades brought in at both TE and WR, but I don't see Dorial G-B (or Devin Funchess) as that "upgrade" to Duke.

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9 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

I don't expect Beane to take on any high risk players.  I can't think of one that is worth spending money to get.  AJ Green is a decent guy but has developed an injury history that is typical for players his age.  When you look back at the recent moves made by the Bills, they haven't signed any head cases or players with any red flag character issues.  There are other low risk options available to address the Bill's roster issues.

 

They're apparently looking at signing Greg Olsen, who has an injury history perhaps not too dissimilar to Green?

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1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

This guy has a ton of talent but they keep finding weed in his car. But he says its all behind him now :rolleyes:

26 years old, former basket ball player, big and can make the tough catches against smaller DBs.

 

 

The problem is obvious here.....they need to stop looking in his car! 

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I think Perryman (WR-Tampa) is somewhat a high risk.  The guy was a relative bust with the Ravens, had a good statistical year last year on a team that throws it A TON.  Not sure what he would be here, and he will likely be mid-range in price.  

 

Not sure I'd go after him, but I wouldn't hate it either.  

 

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8 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

I think Perryman (WR-Tampa) is somewhat a high risk.  The guy was a relative bust with the Ravens, had a good statistical year last year on a team that throws it A TON.  Not sure what he would be here, and he will likely be mid-range in price.  

 

Not sure I'd go after him, but I wouldn't hate it either.  

 

I could see a deal similar to Kroft’s offered to him. Maybe a little more guaranteed and higher Avg yearly salary. 

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2 hours ago, mattynh said:

I think AJ Green is the risky guy to talk about.  High price, high output if healthy.....the risk obviously is IF HEALTHY.   Green Beckham does not seem like a McBeane type, but the risk would be low, he would not require a monster contract.

 

I'm all in on AJ Green if the price is right. Spottrac has his market value at 2yrs, 18M which seems unbelievably low to me. I would be thrilled to get him at 3/27 in a similar deal as we got John Brown.

 

- He's been in Bengals purgatory for years and has seemed to function well on a small market team.

- Huge target for JA ... his numbers are down in recent years but his YPC is not - he's still getting downfield.

- He's had a whole year away from football and would be coming with something to prove.

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2 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

I don't expect Beane to take on any high risk players.  I can't think of one that is worth spending money to get.  AJ Green is a decent guy but has developed an injury history that is typical for players his age.  When you look back at the recent moves made by the Bills, they haven't signed any head cases or players with any red flag character issues.  There are other low risk options available to address the Bill's roster issues.

Beane signed an injured PED busted Murphy. Kroft had injury history and so did Morse.  Spencer Long as well. There is nothing in Beane history to say he would avoid signing Green if he is cleared to play.

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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

They signed some injury risk players to decent money such as Trent Murphy and Kroft.

 

With his concussion history, Morse was huge injury risk.  Kevin Johnson had an injury history too.  It seems to me that Beane is more willing to take a risk with injured guys that are "process-oriented" rather than on guys that are "character" risks.  Duke Williams and Tyrell Dotson really don't count, because they are end of the roster fringe players on small contracts, whereby both the player and the contract can be easily shed without much issue.

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32 minutes ago, Flip Johnson said:

 

I'm all in on AJ Green if the price is right. Spottrac has his market value at 2yrs, 18M which seems unbelievably low to me. I would be thrilled to get him at 3/27 in a similar deal as we got John Brown.

 

- He's been in Bengals purgatory for years and has seemed to function well on a small market team.

- Huge target for JA ... his numbers are down in recent years but his YPC is not - he's still getting downfield.

- He's had a whole year away from football and would be coming with something to prove.

100% agree. Want him on a short term deal as you suggested. 3 years tops. Make the first two guaranteed and hope you get two great years. 

I have no interest in Cooper on a 5 or 6 year massive deal. That would eat up too much cap needed in 2022 and beyond

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4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He said high risk not imminent danger.


“Danger Will Robinson, Danger”!  Only middle aged guys up even know what I’m talking about which is not being hard on the younger guys.

 

Seriously though, I could see for the right contract, maybe AJ Green, but doubt this would happen.  If anyone wanted to take a chance on a guy with a weed issue, I wouldn’t do it until the new CBA as they are either taking that away, or raise positive threshold so high players would never get for it.  Now is too risky.

 

Stampede, you crack me up at times.  Good post.

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5 hours ago, HOUSE said:

 

Minimum deal, prove it contract, any trouble SEE YA !

If the only option  AJ has is a minimum deal prove it contract I'm sure there are other teams he'd rather consider. NE, BAL, GB, DAL all come to mind. Teams that are in desperate need of #1 or solid #2 WR. He's gonna want an established QB that can boost his stock for his follow up contract. 

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6 hours ago, Flip Johnson said:

 

I'm all in on AJ Green if the price is right. Spottrac has his market value at 2yrs, 18M which seems unbelievably low to me. I would be thrilled to get him at 3/27 in a similar deal as we got John Brown.

 

- He's been in Bengals purgatory for years and has seemed to function well on a small market team.

- Huge target for JA ... his numbers are down in recent years but his YPC is not - he's still getting downfield.

- He's had a whole year away from football and would be coming with something to prove.

I would do that contract also....but like you I am not sure that is his market value.

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8 hours ago, HOUSE said:

 

Minimum deal, prove it contract, any trouble SEE YA !

 

 

...Bungles are talking about possibly tagging him from what I read.............

3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:


“Danger Will Robinson, Danger”!  Only middle aged guys up even know what I’m talking about which is not being hard on the younger guys.

 

Seriously though, I could see for the right contract, maybe AJ Green, but doubt this would happen.  If anyone wanted to take a chance on a guy with a weed issue, I wouldn’t do it until the new CBA as they are either taking that away, or raise positive threshold so high players would never get for it.  Now is too risky.

 

Stampede, you crack me up at times.  Good post.

 

...well Flip Johnson posted Sportac values at 2 years, $18 mil......so if my math is correct, $9 mil a year divided by the nine games he'd probably be healthy for is a cool mil per game....

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7 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

I think Perryman (WR-Tampa) is somewhat a high risk.  The guy was a relative bust with the Ravens, had a good statistical year last year on a team that throws it A TON.  Not sure what he would be here, and he will likely be mid-range in price.  

 

Not sure I'd go after him, but I wouldn't hate it either.  

 

 

Yeah, it's not what people here want - Perriman was the #3 on a team with a strong #1 and #2.

 

Argument for: 2.5x the receiving yards production of Isaiah McKensie.  Different physical type of WR - bigger and heavier guy at 6'2", 215 lbs

 

Argument against: Did that on a team with 1.4x the passing attempts AND a more productive #1 and #2 WR, so who knows what he'd be here.  Wanted out of Cleveland when they traded for OBJ, so might not be content to take a back-seat to Brown, Beasley and Knox - but unclear he has the physical skills to move himself to the fore.  Does not play special teams.

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