The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[B-Man]

AN OPTIMISTIC TAKE ON COVID-19

 

 

Michael Levitt is an “American-British-Israeli” chemist who won the Nobel Prize for chemistry in 2013. He spends a lot of time in China and has followed the coronavirus epidemic from the beginning. The Jerusalem Post highlights Levitt’s optimistic view of the epidemic, in part because the contagion is waning in China:

“The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day — that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyze numbers and that is exponential growth.”

Had the growth continued at that rate, the whole world would have become infected within 90 days. But as Levitt continued to process the numbers, the pattern changed. On February 1, when he first looked at the statistics, Hubei Province had 1,800 new cases a day. By February 6, that number had reached 4,700 new cases a day.

But on February 7, something changed. “The number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop,” Levitt said. “A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”

By plotting the data forward, Levitt has predicted that the virus will likely disappear from China by the end of March.

Levitt explains one of the reasons why the spread of the disease slows:

The reason for the slowdown is due to the fact that exponential models assume that people with the virus will continue to infect others at a steady rate. In the early phase of COVID-19, that rate was 2.2 people a day on average.

“In exponential growth models, you assume that new people can be infected every day, because you keep meeting new people,” Levitt said. “But, if you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day. You can meet new people on public transportation, for example; but even on the bus, after some time most passengers will either be infected or immune.”

Levitt also concludes that most people are naturally immune to COVID-19:

In Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, the whole population theoretically was at risk of becoming infected, but only 3% were.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship represented the worst-case scenario in terms of disease spread, as the close confines of the ship offered optimal conditions for the virus to be passed among those aboard. The population density aboard the ship was the equivalent of trying to cram the whole Israeli population into an area 30 kilometers square. In addition, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system, and communal dining rooms.

“Those are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and still, only 20% were infected. It is a lot, but pretty similar to the infection rate of the common flu,” Levitt said. Based on those figures, his conclusion was that most people are simply naturally immune.

Let’s hope that proves to be true. The cruise ship experience seems to be powerful evidence that it is.

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

[fansince88]

10 minutes ago, B-Man said:

AN OPTIMISTIC TAKE ON COVID-19

 

 

Michael Levitt is an “American-British-Israeli” chemist who won the Nobel Prize for chemistry in 2013. He spends a lot of time in China and has followed the coronavirus epidemic from the beginning. The Jerusalem Post highlights Levitt’s optimistic view of the epidemic, in part because the contagion is waning in China:

“The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day — that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyze numbers and that is exponential growth.”

Had the growth continued at that rate, the whole world would have become infected within 90 days. But as Levitt continued to process the numbers, the pattern changed. On February 1, when he first looked at the statistics, Hubei Province had 1,800 new cases a day. By February 6, that number had reached 4,700 new cases a day.

But on February 7, something changed. “The number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop,” Levitt said. “A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”

By plotting the data forward, Levitt has predicted that the virus will likely disappear from China by the end of March.

Levitt explains one of the reasons why the spread of the disease slows:

The reason for the slowdown is due to the fact that exponential models assume that people with the virus will continue to infect others at a steady rate. In the early phase of COVID-19, that rate was 2.2 people a day on average.

“In exponential growth models, you assume that new people can be infected every day, because you keep meeting new people,” Levitt said. “But, if you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day. You can meet new people on public transportation, for example; but even on the bus, after some time most passengers will either be infected or immune.”

Levitt also concludes that most people are naturally immune to COVID-19:

In Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, the whole population theoretically was at risk of becoming infected, but only 3% were.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship represented the worst-case scenario in terms of disease spread, as the close confines of the ship offered optimal conditions for the virus to be passed among those aboard. The population density aboard the ship was the equivalent of trying to cram the whole Israeli population into an area 30 kilometers square. In addition, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system, and communal dining rooms.

“Those are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and still, only 20% were infected. It is a lot, but pretty similar to the infection rate of the common flu,” Levitt said. Based on those figures, his conclusion was that most people are simply naturally immune.

Let’s hope that proves to be true. The cruise ship experience seems to be powerful evidence that it is.

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

I believe the cruise ship offers the best medium to compare mortality rates as well. .85%. These people were stuck on the same ship for 3+ weeks. 

[123719bwiqrb]

I like it.  Best news I've heard all day.

[bbb]

7 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

I like it.  Best news I've heard all day.

 

Democracy Dies in Darkness
	World Alert Mar 18, 10:02 PM
	China reports no new local coronavirus infections for the first time since the outbreak began All 34 infections diagnosed on Wednesday were in people arriving into China from abroad, the National Health Commission said. Read more »

[GG]

Finally a scientifically plausible explanation why China infections peaked.  Extrapolating to the US would get us mostly clear by May?

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

https://www.marvistavet.com/feline-infectious-peritonitis.pml

 

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE FELINE ENTERIC CORONAVIRUS?   Here are some basics about this virus: It is common wherever cats are housed in groups and it is readily transmitted between cats.   Transmission is typically by contact with infected feces. This means that the litter box is the usual place where infection takes place. Coronavirus infection is unusual in cats that free-roam outdoors (no litter box) or who live in homes where there is only one cat. The virus enters the new host’s body via the nose and mouth. Coronavirus readily sticks to clothing and can be transported easily this way. Coronavirus also survives up to 2 weeks in cat litter dust.	Electron Micrograph of a Coronavirus showing the characteristic halo-like structures for which it is named. (Photocredit: CDC Public Heath Image Library)
An active infection lasts several weeks to a few months. Virus is shed in the infected cat’s stool during this period. If the cat is reinfected, virus sheds again for weeks to months. During this time, the cat may or may not seem at all ill. Some infected cats do not shed virus.   Households with fewer than 5 cats eventually spontaneously clear of coronavirus. Households with more than 5 cats virtually never clear of coronavirus.	(original graphic by marvistavet.com)
Most household disinfectants readily kill coronavirus immediately. Room temperature kills coronavirus within 48 hours. Carpeting is protective to the virus and the virus is able to survive in carpeting for at least 7 weeks.   Once a cat has been infected with the virus and recovered, the cat can be easily re-infected by continued exposure to infected feces. In this way, many catteries where there are always cats sharing litter boxes never rid themselves of this infection.   The enteric coronavirus attacks intestinal cells and creates GI upset. As the long as the infection is confined to the GI tract, there will be no FIP.   Cats can have coronavirus. But by cat to cat contact. I think by feces?

[bbb]

[123719bwiqrb]

11 minutes ago, GG said:

Finally a scientifically plausible explanation why China infections peaked.  Extrapolating to the US would get us mostly clear by May?

Yes, but it may take a little longer as we will not take the same approach as China (think military lockdowns). 

 

I have Barenaked Ladies tickets for July 7th at Artpark, and I fully expect to be there with my friends.

 

I love you Coronabug, but don't go away mad, just go away.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, GG said:

Finally a scientifically plausible explanation why China infections peaked.  Extrapolating to the US would get us mostly clear by May?

 

It's what i'm hoping. And doesn't mutate or change it self like the flu (different flu shots each year).  Because RNA. Worried about the most. and family, friends and people don't get hurt right now with this. This virus is new.

 

The number that is inconsistent to me Hubei, China has the most cases but rest part of China way down doesn't match. There is soo many people in China. Don't think they are totality out of the woods yet. They have to be careful tho. 

 

Hoping it is over in May. Witch would be good for everyone. 

[Taro T]

19 minutes ago, GG said:

Finally a scientifically plausible explanation why China infections peaked.  Extrapolating to the US would get us mostly clear by May?

 

Totally unscientific, but am expecting this to be done ramping up around April 1 & clearing to the point of being able to resume normalcy by around May 1.  That article gives a reason to expect that could be plausible.  Especially if there is any seasonality to how this progresses, it should be plausible.  (Still won't visit my parents until there's way more to go on than just that though.)

 

 

[Hedge]

 

 

I'm guessing there is a high likelihood that it doesn't stop at just 2 members of Congress.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

This is what I mean have to play it safe. Looks like they are doing it right now. Witch is really good. 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/asia/hong-kong-coronavirus-second-wave-intl-hnk/index.html

 

On Tuesday, the city's government issued a red notice for all foreign countries, requiring anyone arriving from overseas to undergo a 14-day home quarantine. Of the 10 new cases reported that day, almost all had recently traveled in Europe or the United States.

"In view of proliferation of the disease and continuous increase in the number of cases reported around the world, members of the public are strongly urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside Hong Kong," the city's Center for Health Protection said in a statement.

"The CHP strongly urges the public to maintain at all times strict personal and environmental hygiene, which is key to personal protection against infection and prevention of the spread of the disease in the community. On a personal level, members of the public should wear a surgical mask when having respiratory symptoms, taking public transport or staying in crowded places. They  should also perform hand hygiene frequently, especially before touching the mouth, nose or eyes."

[Doc Brown]

Just an FYI....

 

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by Doc Brown

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

 

Got to take care other people need help doctors   

[Prickly Pete]

2 hours ago, ScotSHO said:

Yes, but it may take a little longer as we will not take the same approach as China (think military lockdowns). 

 

I have Barenaked Ladies tickets for July 7th at Artpark, and I fully expect to be there with my friends.

 

I love you Coronabug, but don't go away mad, just go away.

 

 

The Barenaked Ladies is the big event you are all in on for this summer? My God....

 

 

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by 32ABBA

[LikeIGiveADarn]

8 minutes ago, 32ABBA said:

 

 

The Barenaked Ladies is the big event you are all in on for this summer? My God....

 

 

 

 

 

BNL are triple platinum! Are you?

Edited March 19, 2020 by LikeIGiveADarn

[Hedge]

 

 

[Prickly Pete]

4 hours ago, LikeIGiveADarn said:

 

 

BNL are triple platinum! Are you?

 

Kidz Bop have sold 17 million units.

 

BNL is music for weenies.

 

PS. On second thought, a better comparison is The Wiggles...

 

"They (The Wiggles) have earned several Platinum, Double Platinum and Multi-Platinum records, as well as sold 23 million DVDs and 7 million CDs, and have performed, on average, to one million people per year."

 

BNL is Wiggles music for, um... "grown ups".

 

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by 32ABBA

[PetermansRedemption]

3 hours ago, 32ABBA said:

 

Kidz Bop have sold 17 million units.

 

BNL is music for weenies.

 

PS. On second thought, a better comparison is The Wiggles...

 

"They (The Wiggles) have earned several Platinum, Double Platinum and Multi-Platinum records, as well as sold 23 million DVDs and 7 million CDs, and have performed, on average, to one million people per year."

 

BNL is Wiggles music for, um... "grown ups".

 

 

Imagine being the person who, while the world is falling apart, has their top priority as criticizing music. 

[Prickly Pete]

8 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Imagine being the person who, while the world is falling apart, has their top priority as criticizing music. 

 

 

I can't imagine that.

 

A Peterman Fan....wow.

 

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by 32ABBA

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

3 hours ago, 32ABBA said:

 

Kidz Bop have sold 17 million units.

 

BNL is music for weenies.

 

PS. On second thought, a better comparison is The Wiggles...

 

"They (The Wiggles) have earned several Platinum, Double Platinum and Multi-Platinum records, as well as sold 23 million DVDs and 7 million CDs, and have performed, on average, to one million people per year."

 

BNL is Wiggles music for, um... "grown ups".

 

 

“Weenies”?? This is the sort of thing I would have said when I was 14. Yes...

 

This is me in grade 9!
 

I will give you 500 bonus points for dropping the wiggles in a Coronavirus thread. That is not easy. 

[nkreed]

4 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

“Weenies”?? This is the sort of thing I would have said when I was 14. Yes...

 

This is me in grade 9!
 

I will give you 500 bonus points for dropping the wiggles in a Coronavirus thread. That is not easy. 

I see what you did there!?

[ALF]

Thousands of medical staff infected with coronavirus in Italy

 

At least 2,629 health workers have been infected by coronavirus since the onset of the outbreak in February

The data has sent shock waves through the country's already strained healthcare system.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/rising-number-medical-staff-infected-coronavirus-italy-200318183939314.html

 

'Everything is out of our control': San Francisco eases into lockdown

San Francisco is two days into a lockdown that has no definite end. What happens next is anyone's guess.

 

The city and its surrounding counties imposed shelter-in-place restrictions Tuesday just after midnight, forcing millions of people to stay home and stay put except for essential needs such as shopping for groceries, getting medications, caring for others and exercising.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/everything-out-our-control-san-francisco-eases-lockdown-n1163376

 

San Francisco goes into 24-hour lockdown for 3 weeks per fox news

Edited March 19, 2020 by ALF

[TH3]

13 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Let's see..................what was the U.S. government busy with back in January ?

 

 

 

 

.

The buck stops where?

11 hours ago, IDBillzFan said:

Ugh.

 

 

See DT JR and Kim Garfoyle birthday party at MaraLago

8 hours ago, GG said:

Finally a scientifically plausible explanation why China infections peaked.  Extrapolating to the US would get us mostly clear by May?

They had a LOCKDOWN....we have toilet paper hoarding

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

17 minutes ago, TH3 said:

The buck stops where?

See DT JR and Kim Garfoyle birthday party at MaraLago

They had a LOCKDOWN....we have toilet paper hoarding

Given the structure of our government, since the President was powerless to stop the process, the buck would stop with Pelosi, no?  The government was near-singularly focused on an impeachment gambit that failed miserably, as everyone in America with integrity and a functioning brain knew it would.  You can hate your President and still be critical of the people you entrusted with power. Ask more from your leaders.  Expect more. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On 3/18/2020 at 8:09 AM, billsfan1959 said:

 

Yes, it is pathetic. There is a national and global crisis going on, the likes of which nobody has had to deal with before. There are people all over this world that have dealt with pandemics and this has overwhelmed all of them. People at the national level have been, and are trying to do everything they can to get through this in the best way possible.

 

Instead of doing what they can to keep people calm and support efforts to get through this, people like you do all you can to sow seeds of blame and fear. It is absolutely rich that you accuse anyone of being in "lock step" in supporting their party when you and your party can't stop your hyperbole, blame, and fear mongering even in the midst of a crisis.

 

If people aren't part of the solution, then they are part of the problem and should just STFU.

 

You are delusional.  Keep kissing Don't ass and pretending he's perfect.  

 

I spread fear?  thats funny,  because I pointed out that Dandy Don, Reality TV "star" disbanded the Obama Administrations Pandemic Team?  

 

STFU?  Bravo my man.  What happened to freedom of speech?  Or does freedom of speech only apply to Don't Lemmings? 

 

Here's a clue.  If you don't like what I post 

 

Use the Ignore feature.  

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[123719bwiqrb]

Wow, I didn't know the mere mention of BNLs would trigger so many delicate egos.  I for one will have a little fun with my friends come July.  Similar to the SLIPKNOT concert last summer.  

[whatdrought]

1 hour ago, ALF said:

Thousands of medical staff infected with coronavirus in Italy

 

At least 2,629 health workers have been infected by coronavirus since the onset of the outbreak in February

The data has sent shock waves through the country's already strained healthcare system.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/rising-number-medical-staff-infected-coronavirus-italy-200318183939314.html

 

'Everything is out of our control': San Francisco eases into lockdown

San Francisco is two days into a lockdown that has no definite end. What happens next is anyone's guess.

 

The city and its surrounding counties imposed shelter-in-place restrictions Tuesday just after midnight, forcing millions of people to stay home and stay put except for essential needs such as shopping for groceries, getting medications, caring for others and exercising.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/everything-out-our-control-san-francisco-eases-lockdown-n1163376

 

San Francisco goes into 24-hour lockdown for 3 weeks per fox news

Good news is, if the plumbing stops working and the ***** piles up, San Francisconians will be right at home...

[billsfan1959]

29 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

You are delusional.  Keep kissing Don't ass and pretending he's perfect.  

 

I spread fear?  thats funny,  because I pointed out that Dandy Don, Reality TV "star" disbanded the Obama Administrations Pandemic Team?  

 

STFU?  Bravo my man.  What happened to freedom of speech?  Or does freedom of speech only apply to Don't Lemmings? 

 

Here's a clue.  If you don't like what I post 

 

Use the Ignore feature.  

 

 

I didn't vote for Trump, I don't kiss anyone's ass, and perfection doesn't exist in human beings.

 

There is a time for political attacks and then there is a time to keep your mouth shut and be supportive. It isn't about freedom of speech, it is about the greater good.

 

Unfortunately, people like you are too arrogant and self-absorbed to know the difference - and are only concerned with the need to prop up your own sense of self-perfection by constantly "enlightening" the uninformed masses from your perch of intellectual and moral superiority.

 

Funny you should use any phrase with the word "clue" in it, as it is clear you don't have a clue.

Edited March 19, 2020 by billsfan1959

[GG]

1 hour ago, TH3 said:

 

They had a LOCKDOWN....we have toilet paper hoarding

 

They locked down ONE province you moron, out of a country of 1.4 billion.

[Foxx]

9 hours ago, GG said:

Finally a scientifically plausible explanation why China infections peaked.  Extrapolating to the US would get us mostly clear by May?

i think i may have missed what you are talking about. could you point me towards what it is you are referring to?

 

TYIA

[Buffalo_Gal]

This happened yesterday...

 

Senate passes coronavirus package as Treasury proposes rescue with emergency checks
 

"I do not believe we should let perfection be the enemy of something that will help even a subset of workers," Mitch McConnell says.
 

Washington is mobilizing to rescue the country from potentially disastrous economic consequences from the global coronavirus outbreak, with the Senate on Wednesday passing a multi-billion dollar emergency package and quickly getting to work on a larger stimulus agreement.
 

With Senate leaders vowing to work at “warp speed” to blunt the financial fallout from the pandemic, the Treasury Department unveiled to lawmakers a plan for $250 billion in direct payments to Americans starting April 6.
 

Meanwhile, Senate Republicans were inching closer on Wednesday to unveiling their proposal for a third, even larger stimulus package to address the epidemic, which is likely to include some of Treasury's ideas.
 

The Senate’s approval Wednesday of the House-passed coronavirus bill, known as “phase two,” comes as Republican senators are expected to begin negotiations with Democrats on a trillion-dollar “phase three” stimulus package as early as Wednesday night.
 

</snip>

[GG]

2 minutes ago, Foxx said:

i think i may have missed what you are talking about. could you point me towards what it is you are referring to?

 

TYIA

 

B-Man's link of the Israeli's scientist's analysis (above) and his view that the virus will naturally cycle through in a relatively short span.   Was a plausible explanation of why China's cases essentially dropped.

 

Of course, I'm willing to wait until Rosanna Arquette offers her guidance.

[Foxx]

https://twitter.com/MichaelCoudrey/status/1240281991771123718

 

[Foxx]

3 minutes ago, GG said:

 

B-Man's link of the Israeli's scientist's analysis (above) and his view that the virus will naturally cycle through in a relatively short span.   Was a plausible explanation of why China's cases essentially dropped.

 

Of course, I'm willing to wait until Rosanna Arquette offers her guidance.

thanks. i did read that and wasn't quite sure that was the 'scientifically plausible' item you were referring to.

[KRC]

13 hours ago, IDBillzFan said:

Ugh.

 

 

 

These are the same people who need safe spaces to protect themselves from microaggressions. 

[GG]

10 minutes ago, Foxx said:

thanks. i did read that and wasn't quite sure that was the 'scientifically plausible' item you were referring to.

 

It is, on purely statistical basis.   

 

As I said before, it's not in China's interest to suppress new cases, because that would open them up to much greater questioning on either the virus's origin or having the cure.

[Westside]

4 minutes ago, GG said:

 

It is, on purely statistical basis.   

 

As I said before, it's not in China's interest to suppress new cases, because that would open them up to much greater questioning on either the virus's origin or having the cure.

I don't trust china. Even if Biden says they are our friend. 

[TH3]

35 minutes ago, GG said:

 

B-Man's link of the Israeli's scientist's analysis (above) and his view that the virus will naturally cycle through in a relatively short span.   Was a plausible explanation of why China's cases essentially dropped.

 

Of course, I'm willing to wait until Rosanna Arquette offers her guidance.

Basing any kind of analysis on what the Chinese release is just plain a waste of time...Look at Italy.

 

My take....It is inevitable that like DT said....CV is going to "wash through" our country. Ultimately there will be hundreds of thousands...if not millions of casualties (pending a vaccine). 

 

No amount of economic help from the Feds can replace the loss of economic activity that is going to be incurred in a quarantine/shutdown. Think about this: A restaurant is in a plaza...shuts down - employees out of work. Restaurant has credit line with bank and a lease with a developer. Developer out of rent can't make payments might default on mortgage, restaurant out of credit line conditions with bank. Employees can't pay bills with a $1,000 check. Multiply by millions. 

 

This is the reality that we are looking at - and if you get a hold of leaked meetings and reports.....they know it

 

What I think is going to happen? A policy of low risk people get on with their lives and the high risk try to stay out of harms way. Hundreds of thousands if not millions of casualties and not much to stop it....and that is the choice that is going to be made.