The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Chef Jim]

News from the front:

 

Had our first dine in restaurant dinner tonight in over three months for the wife’s birthday tonight. The restaurant was full and only saw two patrons with masks. The whole staff wore masks however. On the drive home down PCH it appeared that every restaurant was full. The streets were full and the traffic was heavy. Looks like The OC is back open for business. ?

[Unforgiven]

3 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

 

Maybe it's all a big f%^&ing lie.

[Big Blitz]

 

[Doc Brown]

18 hours ago, Magox said:

The most in depth data driven look that I have seen on deaths due to the lockdowns.

 

 

I'm glad somebody is tracking this and as bad as they are I expected these numbers to be higher.  Especially the suicide/drug abuse deaths.   My inkling is both lockdown deaths and the covid-19 deaths are both underreported.  It's impossible to tell whether without these lockdowns how many more covid deaths there would have been so I'm sure this will be a debate that goes on for years on whether they were unnecessary, too strict, just right, or not strict enough.

[shoshin]

6 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Dude...maybe you’re not aware but this is an Internet chat room! If you want to have private conversations this is not the venue.

 

I’m still proud of you for quoting some source. 

 

6 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

 

 

PS: We know, we know, you’re REALLY concerned about the virus. 

It’s shut down our economy. I’m concerned about that in a big way as we all should be and remains my big concern about the virus. I’m watching the data to see if it will affect it further. 
 

Pretty much zero concern about the actual virus. If I get it, I’ll likely be ok. If not, oh well. We all cash out chips in at some point. 

[shoshin]

22 hours ago, Magox said:

The most in depth data driven look that I have seen on deaths due to the lockdowns.

 

 

That’s wildly loosely done, and even if you say none of his excess pneumonia deaths are Covid (a pretty bad assumption) his excess 2020 deaths are a smallish portion of the total excess deaths and it is not comparing the impact of shutdown-lives-saved vs shutdown-lives-lost, which would be a more appropriate comparison when measuring the impact of the shutdown on deaths. 
 

That guy has some pretty sloppy math at times, including the fact that in his own chart above, some of his numbers don’t even match! His twitter followers lap him up like he’s posting infallible assumptions. I applaud efforts though you have to question someone so sloppy. 

Edited June 14, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I'm glad somebody is tracking this and as bad as they are I expected these numbers to be higher.  Especially the suicide/drug abuse deaths.   My inkling is both lockdown deaths and the covid-19 deaths are both underreported.  It's impossible to tell whether without these lockdowns how many more covid deaths there would have been so I'm sure this will be a debate that goes on for years on whether they were unnecessary, too strict, just right, or not strict enough.

 

Yeah, he’s done really good work.  The most in depth work that I have followed on Twitter.  The other guys who I follow which do great work as well primarily just aggregate data.

 

This guy aggregates the data compares it to other data and puts in formulas to come to conclusions. He’s been right with his predictions up to now every step of the way.   
 

He cuts through all the vacuous panic porn analysis that is out there.

 

 

[shoshin]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

 

He’s been right with his predictions up to now every step of the way.   
 

He cuts through all the vacuous panic porn analysis that is out there.

 

 

Sure he has. Sure he does. 
 

Care to explain this stupid and wildly wrong bit of fear porn prediction?
 

The food is running out!!!

Edited June 14, 2020 by shoshin

[plenzmd1]

9 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

News from the front:

 

Had our first dine in restaurant dinner tonight in over three months for the wife’s birthday tonight. The restaurant was full and only saw two patrons with masks. The whole staff wore masks however. On the drive home down PCH it appeared that every restaurant was full. The streets were full and the traffic was heavy. Looks like The OC is back open for business. ?

trending on Twitter

 

BTW,apropos of nothing, came to our place in DC last night for first time since late April . We live essentially in area called Adams Morgan, about a mile from White House. So sad to see so much boarded up even up here.

 

Went to dinner last night at a place actually near the White House, protests were two block over.,..not living  here full time  we just never put two and two togetherr and did not hit us where we were going until Uber dropped us off 3 blocks away as street was closed off with some kind of huge military vehicle.

 

We decided to ga anyway, had a lovely meal outside on a perfect night, surrounded by boarded up buildings. Walked over to  the protest for a few minutes after dinner..was more just a big party...and finally got my wife to get a scooter account and ride one home as not a Taxi  or Uber to found..well, Uber was around but wanted $35 for a mile ride.

 

She has a great time, and is now hooked !

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

trending on Twitter

 

BTW,apropos of nothing, came to our place in DC last night for first time since late April . We live essentially in area called Adams Morgan, about a mile from White House. So sad to see so much boarded up even up here.

 

Went to dinner last night at a place actually near the White House, protests were two block over.,..not living  here full time  we just never put two and two togetherr and did not hit us where we were going until Uber dropped us off 3 blocks away as street was closed off with some kind of huge military vehicle.

 

We decided to ga anyway, had a lovely meal outside on a perfect night, surrounded by boarded up buildings. Walked over to  the protest for a few minutes after dinner..was more just a big party...and finally got my wife to get a scooter account and ride one home as not a Taxi  or Uber to found..well, Uber was around but wanted $35 for a mile ride.

 

She has a great time, and is now hooked !

I worked on a few of the newer buildings in that area! If you're there as we get closer to sports time check out Grand Central

[SoCal Deek]

Yesterday, Saturday, once again no states reported triple digit deaths...NYS was down to 50 from daily highs that approached 1,000 at the peak. 35 states were in single digits with 20 reporting zero Covid 19 deaths. New cases are up in some of the states that hadn’t seen the high deaths counts early on but so far it doesn’t appear to be correlating to fatalities.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Yesterday, Saturday, once again no states reported triple digit deaths...NYS was down to 50 from daily highs that approached 1,000 at the peak. 35 states were in single digits with 20 reporting zero Covid 19 deaths. New cases are up in some of the states that hadn’t seen the high deaths counts early on but so far it doesn’t appear to be correlating to fatalities.

 

I think when they figured out blood clots,pneumonia  to this virus among other things with this virus. Finding out how to help people better.Most days under 100 deaths and everything else single digit deaths. 

 

China yesterday has 41 cases highest in two months.

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

I think when they figured out blood clots,pneumonia  to this virus among other things with this virus. Finding out how to help people better.Most days under 100 deaths and everything else single digit deaths. 

 

China yesterday has 41 cases highest in two months.

That’s good to know. We certainly bought ourselves time, and my hope is that time was put to good use by the scientific community. 

[plenzmd1]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I worked on a few of the newer buildings in that area! If you're there as we get closer to sports time check out Grand Central

Know it well.  Our place is about a block and a half from there, walked by yesterday and they were actually open and have people outside having lunch. I am more of an exile’s guy when it comes to Buffalo Sports, about two blocks over on U Street

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Yesterday, Saturday, once again no states reported triple digit deaths...NYS was down to 50 from daily highs that approached 1,000 at the peak. 35 states were in single digits with 20 reporting zero Covid 19 deaths. New cases are up in some of the states that hadn’t seen the high deaths counts early on but so far it doesn’t appear to be correlating to fatalities.

 

I don't know that these counts tell us a lot. Watch hospitalizations and deaths...while keeping only half an eye on case counts. 

 

The hospitalization data, however, blows chunks. If you've spent any time digging into the state hosp data, you know how horrible it is. It's strange because I have no doubt every hospital can tell you nearly instantly what their capacity and availability is and I'd think states could gather this. But they seemingly cannot do it consistently well. For PA, I've only seen the hospitalization data start to be clear in the last 10 days. Before that, there were still wild swings of hundreds of cases in and out depending on the data dumps. 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 14, 2020 by shoshin

[B-Man]

"I was rude to a stranger. Celebrate me."

 

 

 

[Magox]

Cutting through the panic porn

 

 

 

 

 

 

Check out the “legacy data”.  Some of the data That is coming in is from over a month ago.  
 

 

[GG]

I know the panic is over because one of the most over protective wives in the neighborhood actually allowed me to hang with her husband in the back yard. 

[meazza]

20 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

News from the front:

 

Had our first dine in restaurant dinner tonight in over three months for the wife’s birthday tonight. The restaurant was full and only saw two patrons with masks. The whole staff wore masks however. On the drive home down PCH it appeared that every restaurant was full. The streets were full and the traffic was heavy. Looks like The OC is back open for business. ?

 

Happy birthday Mrs Chef.

[SoCal Deek]

5 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

I don't know that these counts tell us a lot. Watch hospitalizations and deaths...while keeping only half an eye on case counts. 

 

The hospitalization data, however, blows chunks. If you've spent any time digging into the state hosp data, you know how horrible it is. It's strange because I have no doubt every hospital can tell you nearly instantly what their capacity and availability is and I'd think states could gather this. But they seemingly cannot do it consistently well. For PA, I've only seen the hospitalization data start to be clear in the last 10 days. Before that, there were still wild swings of hundreds of cases in and out depending on the data dumps. 

 

 

 

 

Once again in an effort to keep things simple, I’ve focused consistently (90 days now from the same site) on a single statistic....deaths. That’s the baseline in my scientific methodology. They can always fudge numbers on cases, new cases, and hospitalizations...but it’s hard to argue with deaths. You’re either dead or you’re not. It’s not a perfect analysis for sure but it’s simple and easy to track in a chat room. 

[Chef Jim]

25 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

Happy birthday Mrs Chef.

Awww thanks man!  She had a great weekend.  She appreciated the wishes. 

19 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Once again in an effort to keep things simple, I’ve focused consistently (90 days now from the same site) on a single statistic....deaths. That’s the baseline in my scientific methodology. They can always fudge numbers on cases, new cases, and hospitalizations...but it’s hard to argue with deaths. You’re either dead or you’re not. It’s not a perfect analysis for sure but it’s simple and easy to track in a chat room. 

Well they can fudge what they died from. 

Edited June 15, 2020 by Chef Jim

[SoCal Deek]

21 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

Awww thanks man!  She had a great weekend.  She appreciated the wishes. 

Well they can fudge what they died from. 

Yes they can, but I’ve figured if I used the same site they ‘should’ count them the same every day. With so much misinformation these days, I felt if I went to the same single source throughout it would be the best baseline....and in my ‘study’ I’ve reported a daily and consistent plummeting of fatalities day after day after day for weeks. . 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

38 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

Awww thanks man!  She had a great weekend.  She appreciated the wishes. 

Well they can fudge what they died from. 

 

Happy Birthday Mrs. Chef.

 

 

On a different topic does anyone think that covid19 is here to stay for years? Just wondering what others think.

[Cinga]

32 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

Happy Birthday Mrs. Chef.

 

 

On a different topic does anyone think that covid19 is here to stay for years? Just wondering what others think.

 

It's a Rona, and there is no reason to believe it won't go away just like MERs and SARs did. In fact evidence now coming out of Italy shows it may do so even quicker that they did.

[JetsFan20]

36 minutes ago, Cinga said:

 

It's a Rona, and there is no reason to believe it won't go away just like MERs and SARs did. In fact evidence now coming out of Italy shows it may do so even quicker that they did.

Its not going away, but there is nothing to be done at this point. One of the doctors on Meet The Press today flat out said that the exposure is too great in the US to eradicate it and it will take a vaccine to rid ourselves of it. 
 

 

[B-Man]

 

Not adding up.

 

 

COVID-19 “Spike”? Or Spin?

 

 

 

[fansince88]

7 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:

Its not going away, but there is nothing to be done at this point. One of the doctors on Meet The Press today flat out said that the exposure is too great in the US to eradicate it and it will take a vaccine to rid ourselves of it. 
 

 

Lots of doctors have said lots of things. I for one am dizzy from the back and forth of the knowledgeable morons. 

[SoCal Deek]

Yesterday, Sunday, a total of 40 states reported single digit Covid 19 deaths and 20 of those reported ZERO. Those are the lowest numbers I’ve seen even for a Sunday. And NY State reported 37 deaths which is definitely a low point during the pandemic. 

[Magox]

And people wonder why it isn't over.

 

 

[Cinga]

11 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:

Its not going away, but there is nothing to be done at this point. One of the doctors on Meet The Press today flat out said that the exposure is too great in the US to eradicate it and it will take a vaccine to rid ourselves of it. 
 

 

 

I'm aware of what some supposed "experts" are saying, however as I stated, other Ronas HAVE gone away, and I see no evidence that this one will be an exception

[Beast]

13 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Once again in an effort to keep things simple, I’ve focused consistently (90 days now from the same site) on a single statistic....deaths. That’s the baseline in my scientific methodology. They can always fudge numbers on cases, new cases, and hospitalizations...but it’s hard to argue with deaths. You’re either dead or you’re not. It’s not a perfect analysis for sure but it’s simple and easy to track in a chat room. 

 

I wish that the ages of these deaths were more available, as well as if they had anything else going on at the time of their death.

Edited June 15, 2020 by Beast

[3rdnlng]

11 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:

Its not going away, but there is nothing to be done at this point. One of the doctors on Meet The Press today flat out said that the exposure is too great in the US to eradicate it and it will take a vaccine to rid ourselves of it. 
 

 

It's worse down in the NYC/Jersey area because of the incompetence of De Blasio & Cuomo coupled with the commuting and travel in and out of the City on a daily basis. Cuomo & De Blasio simply weren't up to the task. They were totally unprepared and then begged for the Feds to bail them out. Once they were bailed out they then started to bite the hand that fed them. This of course was after stashing Covid-19 patients in nursing homes. Now they're letting everyone out of prison and De Blasio is recommending cutting the NYPD budget. I especially liked De Blasio's brilliant move to call for a curfew at 11:00 pm after a few nights of rioting that started around 9:00 pm. Don't judge the rest of the country on the basis of what the NYC area did. 

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, Beast said:

 

I wish that the ages of these deaths were more available, as well as if they had anything else going on at the time of their death.

They are readily available. I urge you to go to the CDC website where you’ll find the official statistics. What you’ll discover is that 90% of the deaths are from our ‘senior’ population and that a total of less than TEN school aged children have died from Covid 19 across the entire United States!. I choose to post only an overview because the deep data is way too cumbersome. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

Sure, none of the data is being manipulated. At all.
 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

 

ANALYSIS: TRUE. 

 

Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed. 

 

And it’s some pretty heavy hitters who are saying so.

 

 

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

NO. JUST NO. 

 

 

Lockdown Fever: CDC Warning of Coronavirus Shut-In #2.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[B-Man]

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Tiberius]

Quote

Florida’s Department of Health on Saturday morning reported a new daily record high of 2,581 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 — surpassing the previous high by 679. The previous high was hit on Friday. And the high before that was hit on Thursday.

 

By 

Jennifer Rubin 

Opinion writer

June 15, 2020 at 12:00 p.m. EDT

When red-state governors threw open the doors of businesses and public venues a few weeks ago — before infection rates dropped and without a robust testing or tracing system and strict social-distancing guidelines — the result was entirely predictable. Red-state governors boasted that they had a better idea than the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. They insisted they were smarter and tougher than governors following a go-slow approach. On May 19, I wrote: “If premature, rash and uninformed decision-making leads to unnecessary deaths, governors, candidly, will have blood on their hands. And the country will have a catastrophe in the making.” That is precisely what happened.

The Post reports: “Texas and its largest city, Houston — the fourth biggest in the country — are reaching new peaks in coronavirus hospitalizations amid a wave of warnings from officials that infections in many states are surging.” Hospitalizations in Texas reached more than 2,200 on Saturday. But it’s not just Texas. The Post notes that “hospitalizations related to the virus are up more than 10 percent since Memorial Day in at least 10 states — more than 120 percent in Arkansas and nearly 75 percent in Arizona."

 

Those three red states are paying the price for their governors’ arrogant and reckless disregard of expert advice. The red-state governors, who curried favor with President Trump by putting the economy over health, must be held accountable for the horrible result.