Jump to content

The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19


Hedge

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Gary M said:

 

Positives are increasing, because they are testing younger people with milder symptoms, who were not being tested before, and don't need hospitalization.

 

All the while deaths are declining.

 

image.thumb.png.09cef6aa29e6c349f707f345dbe77f36.png

see, that is where the logic fails me...if before we were only testing people who had more severe symptoms, testing people with less sysmpotoms should yiels a lower positivity rate no? So lets say before we did 100 tests on really sick and older people, and 10 were positive, we have a 10% positivity rate. One would expect if we did 1000 tests and testing people with less symptoms and more do to contact tracing, same 1000 tests should yield something less than 100 positives. So increase in # of cases for sure, but decrease in positivity rate.

 

But that is not what we are seeing, we are seeing like  120 positives?

 

Agreed death rates are falling, but think we need to see 2 to 3 weeks out after these huge spikes in FLa etc

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

see, that is where the logic fails me...if before we were only testing people who had more severe symptoms, testing people with less sysmpotoms should yiels a lower positivity rate no? So lets say before we did 100 tests on really sick and older people, and 10 were positive, we have a 10% positivity rate. 

 

No you were likely to have 100% positive if they were older with symptoms.

 

One would expect if we did 1000 tests and testing people with less symptoms and more do to contact tracing, same 1000 tests should yield something less than 100 positives. So increase in # of cases for sure, but decrease in positivity rate.

 

 No they are finding more people who are positive but asymptomatic, thus the decline in hospitalizations and deaths.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

This is the full list of countries whose nationals will be allowed to enter Europe:

 

Algeria

Australia

Canada

Georgia

Japan

Montenegro

Morocco

New Zealand

Rwanda

Serbia

South Korea

Thailand

Tunisia

Uruguay

 

*China allowed if it allows Europeans to enter China. 

Nice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

see, that is where the logic fails me...if before we were only testing people who had more severe symptoms, testing people with less sysmpotoms should yiels a lower positivity rate no? So lets say before we did 100 tests on really sick and older people, and 10 were positive, we have a 10% positivity rate. One would expect if we did 1000 tests and testing people with less symptoms and more do to contact tracing, same 1000 tests should yield something less than 100 positives. So increase in # of cases for sure, but decrease in positivity rate.

 

But that is not what we are seeing, we are seeing like  120 positives?

 

Agreed death rates are falling, but think we need to see 2 to 3 weeks out after these huge spikes in FLa etc

maybe the lack of logic in the testing results is due to what's hidden in the black box of PCR testing

 

Can anyone point to the standard for what triggers a positive covid test?

It is not a binary system under which you have it or you don't

the PCR test could show the existence of some coronavirus, but not enough to be considered a positive

partly the reason the test has a 30% error rate

 

how much is too much?

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by spartacus
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Taro T said:

 

 

Shoshin is wrong when he calls for PPP to be scrapped, but at least when he's here he does try to have a legit discussion.

 

Probably not the right thread for this comment, but if we drive away the handful of more liberal leaning posters like him that actually want to have a discussion, then we are left with an echo chamber for the most part with bad actors like Gary & Kemp throwing their bombs to disrupt that echo chamber.  It would be far better to either have Gary and his ilk grow up or leave than to run off Shoshin.  My 2 cents.


I agree.  There are some left leaning posters here that I really appreciate (I’m not really right leaning in my opinion).  We need to ignore the garbage posters and flatten the garbage curve. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, meazza said:


I agree.  There are some left leaning posters here that I really appreciate (I’m not really right leaning in my opinion).  We need to ignore the garbage posters and flatten the garbage curve. 

It's tough and It's getting pretty scary. Positive tests for garbage posters have been spiking in the last month.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, shoshin said:

This is the full list of countries whose nationals will be allowed to enter Europe:

 

Algeria

Australia

Canada

Georgia

Japan

Montenegro

Morocco

New Zealand

Rwanda

Serbia

South Korea

Thailand

Tunisia

Uruguay

 

*China allowed if it allows Europeans to enter China. 


That is interesting. We ordered a rug when we were in Morocco in March and got an email earlier this week that they were not allowed to start working on it until mid-July (the email said July 16th).

As I have said before of all the countries we entered into from January through March (includes 4 on that list) only Morocco had us fill out anything on contacting us, and wanting to know if we were near any COVID-19 people.  I posted the forms early in this thread.

 

Edited by Buffalo_Gal
  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't see a problem with Europe banning the US from entering into their countries.  It makes total sense, it would be crazy if they didn't.   Truth be told, I'm not sure when they will relax those rules.  Not probably until early next year.

  • Like (+1) 1
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

I don't see a problem with Europe banning the US from entering into their countries.  It makes total sense, it would be crazy if they didn't.   Truth be told, I'm not sure when they will relax those rules.  Not probably until early next year.

I agree. If it was smart for us to ban them, the reverse is also true. Nothing to see here.

  • Like (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

Based on the above graphs, looks like ~2 weeks minimum and closer to 3 weeks. But something appears different so far and hopefully that continues to be the case. Arizona, Texas, and Florida are the test states. 

Georgia was the test state. They opened the first week of May.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Silly you! It takes until the first week in November to get the actual results back.

 

I agree with him. I overlooked Georgia for that. I think we just need to see if AZ, TX, and FL can weather the hospitalizations. If they can, I don't think deaths will spike particularly. We are headed to the lowest Tuesday in forever--by a lot. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, B-Man said:

 

 

...so why the hell would you contradict MSM and muddy the waters with FACTS?........shame, shame............and we'll have our usual 649,000 annual deaths related to heart disease with no mention......or annual tally of 60,000+ flu deaths........YAWN......

  • Like (+1) 1
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Magox said:

Very impressive drop in deaths today. 
 

 


Lowest Tuesday in forever. Today begins the marking of two weeks since cases started rising. So this is now the big window to watch. If not much happens in the next two weeks, this thing needs monitoring come November, but no one can justify a shut down unless there’s a shocking change in the virus. 

  • Like (+1) 4
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe this is the lowest death total for a Tuesday since March.

The 7 day moving average now stands at 512.

 

 

 

 

How much lower can it go?  Based on the total infections I wouldn’t think too much lower.

 

 

Edited by Magox
  • Like (+1) 1
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:


Lowest Tuesday in forever. Today begins the marking of two weeks since cases started rising. So this is now the big window to watch. If not much happens in the next two weeks, this thing needs monitoring come November, but no one can justify a shut down unless there’s a shocking change in the virus. 

Silly you. ANYTHING that will hurt the President will be justified by these self proclaimed  ‘Science’ defenders. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Magox said:

I don't see a problem with Europe banning the US from entering into their countries.  It makes total sense, it would be crazy if they didn't.   Truth be told, I'm not sure when they will relax those rules.  Not probably until early next year.

 

Again this is good news for the US economy! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

The problem becomes, whose science?

 

There are partisan asshat 'scientists' on both sides who will manipulate the data to come to whatever conclusion their political masters find most expedient.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, shoshin said:


Lowest Tuesday in forever. Today begins the marking of two weeks since cases started rising. So this is now the big window to watch. If not much happens in the next two weeks, this thing needs monitoring come November, but no one can justify a shut down unless there’s a shocking change in the virus. 


Yeah, except that the media is pushing cases like they’re deaths. 

  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Koko78 said:

 

The problem becomes, whose science?

 

There are partisan asshat 'scientists' on both sides who will manipulate the data to come to whatever conclusion their political masters find most expedient.

So to quote Billy Idol....’they blinded you with Science’!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Magox said:

Very impressive drop in deaths today. 
 

 

 

Good news

Ya Magox. I heard lots of site online. Said covid19 because more infectious but less deadly (mutation). There is some some truth with cases and daily reports as evidence. . But who knows.Maybe why lately more cases. But IDK for sure. Just want to hear you're thoughts.

 

Thanks man keeping good posts and updated. Enjoy seeing you here and posts.

 

 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/scientists-analyzing-coronavirus-mutation-might-spread-virus-faster

 

Coronavirus mutation may have made virus more contagious: report

The mutation has been found to affect the virus' spike protein

Fox News Flash top headlines for June 29

Fox News Flash top headlines are here. Check out what's clicking on Foxnews.com.

Scientists are trying to understand a mutation of the novel coronavirus seen around the globe that some believe could make the virus more contagious, according to a report.

The mutation, officially designated D614G or "G" for short, has been found to affect the virus' spike protein, which is a structure that allows it to enter human cells. The more effective the spike protein, the easier it can enter a host's body.

Research has suggested that the mutation, which changes amino acid 614 from “D” (aspartic acid) to “G” (glycine) might make the spike protein more effective, which enhances the virus’ infectiousness, according to The Washington Post.

CORONAVIRUS PATIENTS EXPERIENCING 'TERRIFYING' HOSPITAL DELIRIUM: REPORTS

Researchers have found that out of the roughly 50,000 genomes of the new virus uploaded to a shared database, about 70 percent carried the mutation.

“The epidemiological study and our data together really explain why the [G variant’s] spread in Europe and the U.S. was really fast,” Hyeryun Choe, a virologist at Scripps Research, told the paper. “This is not just accidental.”

Choe was the lead author of an unpublished study on the G variant’s enhanced infectiousness in laboratory cell cultures. He said there were a couple of reasons why "G" was more effective in spreading the virus.

In the mutation, the outer parts of those proteins that bind to a human receptor were less likely to break off, which was a fault of SARS-CoV-2, the virus originated in China that causes COVID-19.

CORONAVIRUS INFECTS 28 MEMBERS OF CALIFORNIA FAMILY, KILLS ONE: COVID-19 'IS A REAL THING'

The faulty mechanism made it so the SARS-CoV-2 had a harder time invading host cells. He added that "G" has more spike proteins, and said those reasons made the mutation 10 times more infectious in lab experiments, according to the Post.

“I think this mutation happened to compensate,” Choe said.

The mutation was also found to be more contagious in four studies that have yet to be peer-reviewed. One study by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory concluded that patients with the "G" mutation also have more virus in their bodies, making them more likely to spread it to others, the report said.

Others believe more studies are needed to d

Edited by Buffalo Bills Fan
  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Reality Check said:

 

 

 

How cute...

 

...the new 2020 quarters have adorable bats on them...

 

...timing is everything...

I got one in change last week and shuddered  a little when I saw it.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

States with highest death tolls since mid May yesterday:

 

CA

AZ 

TX 

 

not huge jumps but also not the continued decline. Watch them now to see how high this rise goes. 

 

FL and GA started their case spikes a week after those states so their window to watch opens next week if we are watching 2 weeks out...The trailing death window is probably 3-4 weeks from case rise though—2 is just the beginning edge. 
 

Florida will finally start reporting statewide hospitalizations this week. Why DeSantis kept that data hidden, who knows. PA Gov Wolf also held back data he had for weeks. The wrong approach. 

 

11 hours ago, shoshin said:


Lowest Tuesday in forever. Today begins the marking of two weeks since cases started rising. So this is now the big window to watch. If not much happens in the next two weeks, this thing needs monitoring come November, but no one can justify a shut down unless there’s a shocking change in the virus. 

 

Deaths at Worldometer much higher than this yesterday. CA data came in late as did others. Total over 700. Maybe not as low as hoped yesterday. 

Edited by shoshin
  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, RiotAct said:

I got one in change last week and shuddered  a little when I saw it.

 

 

Bro, I was emptying my pockets of change yesterday after buying some groceries, and that is when I noticed it.

 

At first, it was a what the ***** is this moment...

 

Strange timing for such an ugly ass coin to be in circulation...

 

I just hope the coins aren't contagious lol.

  • Haha (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yesterday, Tuesday, we appear to have seen the leftover latent reporting from the weekend but with only California registering triple digit Covid deaths. NY reported only 17 deaths and approximately thirty states, again were either in single digits or reported zero fatalities. It’s interesting that even with the recent and now somewhat prolonged spike in new cases across the Southwest the death rate (deaths per million of population) in those states is less than 10% of the overall rate experienced in the NY metro area. I’m guessing the medical profession knows way more about how to treat the virus now than they did then. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...