Magox Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, snafu said: The optimist in me thinks that whoever’s making decisions know that there are likely a lot more infected people out there and pushing out the re-opening dates is timed to when they project to be much closer to herd status. Even if it is 25% higher, then NYC is pretty close to having herd immunity. Thats the optimistic take I’ve got. New York has around 225,000 confirmed cases. This test is showing 50-85 times greater may have it. Imagine if you have let's say 25 times greater. That would be over 5,625,000 cases. You would be getting pretty close to herd immunity levels. That would be good news on that front, but I think what would be even better news is that the mortality rate would be dramatically lower than the confirmed test rate count. Which based off that data, you could change up public policy. 3 minutes ago, shoshin said: I’m all for any good news. But this thing would have to be the most contagious MF on the planet to have infected that many people that quickly. So I remain a bit suspicious. I think there is a decent chance that what might be the most dangerous part of this VIRUS is how contagious it is. It could end up being 10 times more contagious than the regular flu. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snafu Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, Magox said: New York has around 225,000 confirmed cases. This test is showing 50-85 times greater may have it. Imagine if you have let's say 25 times greater. That would be over 5,625,000 cases. You would be getting pretty close to herd immunity levels. That would be good news on that front, but I think what would be even better news is that the mortality rate would be dramatically lower than the confirmed test rate count. Which based off that data, you could change up public policy. Thats my take. I was trying to do the numbers yesterday (I’m no statistician) but in NYS they trported about 7,500 cases day over day. Extrapolated out to May 15 is when I was figuring they figured herd — considering a 10x rate of error. Like you say, if 25x, then they obvioulsly get there a lot quicker. NYC getting hit hard and coming out quickest is actually better for the rest of the country, in my view. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Magox said: New York has around 225,000 confirmed cases. This test is showing 50-85 times greater may have it. Imagine if you have let's say 25 times greater. That would be over 5,625,000 cases. You would be getting pretty close to herd immunity levels. That would be good news on that front, but I think what would be even better news is that the mortality rate would be dramatically lower than the confirmed test rate count. Which based off that data, you could change up public policy. I think there is a decent chance that what might be the most dangerous part of this VIRUS is how contagious it is. It could end up being 10 times more contagious than the regular flu. It’s already 4X as contagious right? This would make it 300x. I would be surprised if that’s the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, shoshin said: It’s already 4X as contagious right? This would make it 300x. I would be surprised if that’s the case. I'm not sure that's how it's calculated. I think there are more variables involved in attempting to extrapolate the rate of contagion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, shoshin said: I’m all for any good news. But this thing would have to be the most contagious MF on the planet to have infected that many people that quickly. So I remain a bit suspicious. 1 minute ago, shoshin said: It’s already 4X as contagious right? This would make it 300x. I would be surprised if that’s the case. ... Unless it's origin point was a bioweapons lab in Wuhan. Then that kind of contagion makes way more sense (because they were designing it to be precisely that). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Magox said: I'm not sure that's how it's calculated. I think there are more variables involved in attempting to extrapolate the rate of contagion. This is @Hapless Bills Fan territory. Your take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MILFHUNTER#518 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Italy thinks the virus had been there since early October. The hospitals saw a rash of people with severe flu like symptoms, so bad they had to be hospitalized, many dying. Oddly, in December here in the Capital District/Albany area we saw the same thing (minus the mortality). https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/coronavirus-was-sweeping-europe-october-21762115 4 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: ... Unless it's origin point was a bioweapons lab in Wuhan. Then that kind of contagion makes way more sense (because they were designing it to be precisely that). The Brits are kinda second guessing that theory... https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/coronavirus-began-months-earlier-not-21882132 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, BillStime said: Putin doesn't pay me to answer questions. That doesn't make any sense. None of this makes any sense. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, shoshin said: This is @Hapless Bills Fan territory. Your take? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said: Italy thinks the virus had been there since early October. The hospitals saw a rash of people with severe flu like symptoms, so bad they had to be hospitalized, many dying. Oddly, in December here in the Capital District/Albany area we saw the same thing (minus the mortality). https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/coronavirus-was-sweeping-europe-october-21762115 The Brits are kinda second guessing that theory... https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/coronavirus-began-months-earlier-not-21882132 Phylogenetic analysis of viral mutations is standard stuff, but most of the people doing this work (and there are now 4099 genomes, so the paper above only used 1/4) conclude the viral outbreak started in the November-December time frame. So I'll wait for peer review on that one. If you want to see the Motherlode it's here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?f_country=USA The general consensus of people who study viruses and viral mutations is "bat virus, acquired ability to transmit person to person by natural mutation" Don't expect to see me in here often, I don't have enough PPE ? 1 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: But the general consensus of people who study viruses and viral mutations is "bat virus, acquired ability to transmit person to person by natural mutation" Which does not rule out the origin point being the lab. Especially when the lab is known for studying bat viruses specifically. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justice Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 4 hours ago, TH3 said: ha....look at the two posters above who couldn't get a biz loan....why....because they weren't for you...they were for the connected....and they blame it on the "dems" .....another sht sandwhich on order please!! 2 hours ago, snafu said: If I’m one of the “two posters above who couldn’t get a biz loan” that you’re referring to, then you’ve grossly misrepresented my post. I blamed a moron who works for Chase Bank. Not a “dem”. Try to be honest, or try to figure out what you’re reading and commenting upon. I think you may have misunderstood THS there, snafu. I didn’t take it that way. Sounds to me like he meant the republicans will blame the dems for not adding to the stimulus package and that the money wasn’t meant for you in the first place by the republicans because it was already doled out to the wealthy. I could be wrong. TH3 didn’t exactly word his post properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said: I think golf might be one of the safest things to do without a crowd. Shocked they closed golf courses. Def should reopen them. Every one must have their own golf cart. Or here's a novel idea, they could go old school and walk. Still don't understand why tennis is out. Tennis players NEVER get within 6' of each while playing. Edited April 17, 2020 by reddogblitz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Phylogenetic analysis of viral mutations is standard stuff, but most of the people doing this work (and there are now 4099 genomes, so the paper above only used 1/4) conclude the viral outbreak started in the November-December time frame. So I'll wait for peer review on that one. If you want to see the Motherlode it's here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?f_country=USA The general consensus of people who study viruses and viral mutations is "bat virus, acquired ability to transmit person to person by natural mutation" Don't expect to see me in here often, I don't have enough PPE ? The virus being in Italy in October but only going crazy 3 months later is implausible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Phylogenetic analysis of viral mutations is standard stuff, but most of the people doing this work (and there are now 4099 genomes, so the paper above only used 1/4) conclude the viral outbreak started in the November-December time frame. So I'll wait for peer review on that one. If you want to see the Motherlode it's here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?f_country=USA The general consensus of people who study viruses and viral mutations is "bat virus, acquired ability to transmit person to person by natural mutation" Don't expect to see me in here often, I don't have enough PPE ? ...this is just some incredible stuff and not sure how your industry and colleagues can keep up....do you share the tepid optimism about Remdesivir?...what was interesting is that it specifies RNA which is something you have specified in your ongoing info...... "..It is a nucleotide analog, specifically an adenosine analogue, which inserts into viral RNA chains, causing their premature termination. ..."..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, reddogblitz said: Every one must have their own golf cart. Or here's a novel idea, they could go old school and walk. Still don't understand why tennis is out. Tennis players NEVER get within 6' of each while playing. Both golf and tennis should be open and playing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ...this is just some incredible stuff and not sure how your industry and colleagues can keep up....do you share the tepid optimism about Remdesivir?...what was interesting is that it specifies RNA which is something you have specified in your ongoing info...... "..It is a nucleotide analog, specifically an adenosine analogue, which inserts into viral RNA chains, causing their premature termination. ..."..... AZT, the first HIV drug, is a thymidine analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, reddogblitz said: Every one must have their own golf cart. Or here's a novel idea, they could go old school and walk. Still don't understand why tennis is out. Tennis players NEVER get within 6' of each while playing. They both touch the ball and lots of rec tennis is doubles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, shoshin said: They both touch the ball and lots of rec tennis is doubles. They both esp tennis can get tested that day if neg and play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said: They both esp tennis can get tested that day if neg and play. My bad. I missed that this was a pro tennis discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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