The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[JetsFan20]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

It's going to be a major problem everywhere. 

 

Anytime it infects a vulnerable population like that it will be bad.

 

I'm extremely worried about Florida and their older population. I can't believe they waited as long as they did to take decisive action. 

 

The whole country needs to be shut down for 30 days and Trump needs to deliver an emergency address to the nation as though the country was just attacked by another country/terrorists/whatever. 

 

Shut it down for 30 days, quarantine the sick, and give the healthcare system a fighting chance if it's not already too late. 

What does that mean exactly? I’d say 70 percent of the workforce is still going in everyday. Pretty much every blue collar job outside of restaurant worker is deemed essential. 
 

 

[B-Man]

DEATHS: 

 

Israeli coronavirus fatalities are mostly elderly men, average age 79.8. 

 

“64% of dead are male, only 6% under 60, in line with global averages; 50,000 now deceased worldwide, with nearly a million infections.”

 

This doesn’t mean people aren’t dying; it’s just about which people. Admittedly, all things equal, a virus that kills mostly old people is less of a civilizational stressor than one that kills mostly young people.

 

 

 

 

[reddogblitz]

8 hours ago, ScotSHO said:

 

That is great.  When will we have access to this?  My bet - probably early 2021.

 

My bet is by the 4th of July you will be able to buy one at Rite-Aid.

 

actually I made this prediction 3 weeks ago.

[billsfan1959]

7 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

My bet is by the 4th of July you will be able to buy one at Rite-Aid.

 

actually I made this prediction 3 weeks ago.

You might want to consult with jrober38 and his predictive models. There might not be anyone left alive by then...

[keepthefaith]

5 hours ago, Capco said:

 

Pardon?  I'm not changing anything.  I said I think he had "petty and/or racist" motives for the travel ban.  I did not say the travel ban was exclusively racist at any point in time.  And I stand by my statement.  

 

None of those examples screams "hmmm we might have some racist undertones here" to you?  Not a single one?  

 

It takes some unique talent to get your head that far in the sand.  

 

There's a lot to read on that wiki, but here is a favorite from the page.

 

Elizabeth Warren

 

Trump gave Senator Elizabeth Warren the nickname "Pocahontas" due to a controversy over her ancestry.

In 2012, controversy arose when it was charged that Senator Elizabeth Warren had used a claim of Native American ancestry early in her career to gain hiring preference.^[150] Warren denies that she ever claimed to be a minority to secure employment, and a review of her employment history and interviews of her past employers has been unable to find anything that supports the charge.^[151] Picking up on the controversy, Trump has frequently referred to her as "Pocahontas", including at a White House event where he addressed Native American veterans who served in the US military during World War II.^[152] Warren responded: "It was deeply unfortunate that the President of the United States cannot even make it through a ceremony honoring these heroes without throwing out a racial slur."^[152] Speaking on PBS NewsHour, Mark Shields commented, "It's one thing when Donald Trump uses Pocahontas to attack or taunt one senator, Elizabeth Warren. This, quite frankly, is beyond that. I mean, this is racial. It's racist. It is."^[153]

The general secretary of the Alliance of Colonial Era Tribes, John Norwood, said Trump's nickname for Warren is "insulting to all American Indians" and "smacks of racism", adding that Trump should "stop using our historical people of significance as a racial slur against one of his opponents."^[152] The president of the National Congress of American Indians said: "We regret that the president's use of the name Pocahontas as a slur to insult a political adversary is overshadowing the true purpose of today's White House ceremony."^[152] White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said that complaints that the nickname is a racial slur are "ridiculous", and that "What most people find offensive is Senator Warren lying about her heritage to advance her career."^[152][154]

 

^{So wiki states that Warren denies using minority status to secure employment.  That's false, she has admitted it and even an application or two signed by her have been circulated in public.  She's earned the nickname.  What should disparage American Indians is her use of their minority status.    Trump is simply calling her out for what she did.  Nothing racist about it unless you view the world and all comments and actions through the prism of race.  She declared herself an Indian.  Trump is simply recognizing it.  Low hanging fruit and brilliant branding at the same time.}  

[B-Man]

There goes that media narrative…

 

 

Fauci Busts Media Nonsense: Trump Has Always Taken Virus ‘Seriously’ From the Beginning

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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.

Edited April 3, 2020 by B-Man

[Q-baby!]

48 minutes ago, B-Man said:

There goes that media narrative…

 

 

Fauci Busts Media Nonsense: Trump Has Always Taken Virus ‘Seriously’ From the Beginning

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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.

Of course he took it seriously. How do you think we went from 15 cases to zero so quickly? Magic? 

[Scraps]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Serious question that I'm having a hard time finding.  What did they report to him?  How good was their information?  That would go a long way in judging whether his response was adequate or not.

Like I'm supposed to know exactly what was said in those classified briefings in the White House?  Its not like someone is going to come out and give all the details for fear of receiving the Vindman treatment.  Best I can surmise is they thought things were far more severe in China that they were admitting to.  Several former administration officials were tweeting or writing op-eds about it in January.  If the administration didn't have similar information, doesn't that show incompetence on their part?

 

Is there really any doubt that his response was inadequate?  All the happy talk saying things were under control and would soon go to zero when it was expanding?  A woefully inadequate request for $2.5 billion?  Happy talk about churches packed on Easter?  Isn't it obvious that he failed miserably?

[Hedge]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[shoshin]

14 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

You're fooling yourself if you think a fascist solution will fly with most of this country. It won't. It's not a concern, it's a fact. So what you're advocating for is a solution that has no hope of working -- to which I have to ask, what's the point of suggesting something that has zero chance of working in this country? It's like the others yesterday who are upset the world isn't perfect and things can't instantly get made/produced/approved just because they demand it. 

 

There's reality. 

 

Then there's fantasy. 

 

What you're suggesting (only with tracking, not testing for clarity) is a fascist fantasy. It's making a promise of security in exchange for giving up innate rights, but the reality is the solution offers no real security -- just the illusion of it. Like the Patriot Act. Live Free or Die is more than a motto for a lot of Americans. Any sort of tracking, medical implants, chips, or certificates like they're trying in Germany just will never be accepted here -- and, I'd argue, should be resisted at all costs. 

 

(Again, I'm a Hollywood Liberal saying this -- imagine what the libertarians or conservatives will say)

 

 

You do realize that shutting down till June and reopening with "trusted" distancing and no tracking just puts us right back where we are now in August right? Meaning what we are doing now would make little difference economically and wrt bombing hospitals and deaths?

 

I've not vetted these authors but they make a point that saves me from pasting in links to all the studies. All the models show a surge following a shutdown now. Deaths in the millions,  cases in the hundreds of millions. The choices are multiple "small" shutdowns like this one, a shutdown and huge surge, or follow the Korea model of test and trace while you're open for business.

 

https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

 

I guess a final option is find a cure in 2 months but that's a magical thought. There were options we didn't follow including to just surge and not shutdown. The UK tried that a bit and that's not working so well now that they are shutdown.

 

If you want this to be the only massive shutdown to avoid the only case surge, tracking has to be part of the plan. The admin knows it and I'm sure Fauci has been told to zip it until they can tease it out because people like you will say they are forming a fascist state. But that plan is coming. Trump is not stupid enough to want to go through this in waves of shutdowns. I

 

If you can present a scenario that has worked and that gets us back to economic health starting in June and avoids a massive case surge, without massive testing and tracking to shut down outbreaks, I'm all ears. 

 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by shoshin

[Teddy KGB]

8 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

It's going to be a major problem everywhere. 

 

Anytime it infects a vulnerable population like that it will be bad.

 

I'm extremely worried about Florida and their older population. I can't believe they waited as long as they did to take decisive action. 

 

The whole country needs to be shut down for 30 days and Trump needs to deliver an emergency address to the nation as though the country was just attacked by another country/terrorists/whatever. 

 

Shut it down for 30 days, quarantine the sick, and give the healthcare system a fighting chance if it's not already too late. 

Go hide in your panic room and let the adults worry about it.   It’s amazing how your ppp content is somehow more ######ed than your football content. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

12 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

***** 'em.

 

Yep, get US out of the UN.

 

[fansince88]

9 hours ago, Jon in Pasadena said:

Not me.  I'd rather have 1 good thing than 10 crappy things.  If I can't afford a good thing right now, I save up for it until I can. Imagine that.

Save......what is this save thing you speak of? Same here. While I do buy quite a bit of hand tools from Harbor Freight when it comes to most of the power tools I own they are the quality brand names. I do however have their 12"compound miter saw. Great tool.

[Magox]

Well, that Fauci clip will make the rounds today.

 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Magox

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Yep, get US out of the UN.

 

 

You remember what happened when the USSR didn't show up for a few meetings of the Security Council?

 

Yeah, as long as the UN exists, the US needs to keep its seat on the Security Council.  All for reforming the UN; it is horribly corrupt.  But it would be foolish to leave it.

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, fansince88 said:

Save......what is this save thing you speak of? Same here. While I do buy quite a bit of hand tools from Harbor Freight when it comes to most of the power tools I own they are the quality brand names. I do however have their 12"compound miter saw. Great tool.

 

I've been a Dewalt guy for most of the power tools I own. During my time in isolation I have had a lot of them out while working on a tiered deck (and small greenhouse for my wife) that I started last year 

[Tiberius]

1 hour ago, Teddy KGB said:

Go hide in your panic room and let the adults worry about it.   It’s amazing how your ppp content is somehow more ######ed than your football content. 

It would be better if you hide your ignorance instead. Moron 

[Warren Zevon]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

Well, that Fauci clip will make the rounds today.

 

 

 

This is the story of the morning

 

 

Trump cultists everywhere now saying Fauci is part of the #DeepState

[Tiberius]

8 hours ago, B-Man said:

There goes that media narrative…

 

 

Fauci Busts Media Nonsense: Trump Has Always Taken Virus ‘Seriously’ From the Beginning

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

 

.

Feb. 10: “Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now.” — Trump at the White House. (See our item “Will the New Coronavirus ‘Go Away’ in April?“)

[billsfan1959]

8 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

It would be better if you hide your ignorance instead. Moron 

 

What exactly is his ignorance here? jrober38 has had an apocalyptic tone to his posts throughout this thread. Seriously, the guy has been a non-stop, worst-case scenario prophet ad nauseam....

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

31 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

You remember what happened when the USSR didn't show up for a few meetings of the Security Council?

 

Yeah, as long as the UN exists, the US needs to keep its seat on the Security Council.  All for reforming the UN; it is horribly corrupt.  But it would be foolish to leave it.

 

Well, at the very least we can neuter it, considering we're the top funder of it.

 

Cut off all funding.

 

[Tiberius]

4 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

What exactly is his ignorance here? jrober38 has had an apocalyptic tone to his posts throughout this thread. Seriously, the guy has been a non-stop, worst-case scenario prophet ad nauseam....

He's right, though. This thing has probably only just begun. Highly contagious and yet less than one percent have been infected? That means this thing is a time bomb if we don't get a handle on it. Hope you are safe there airman! 

[CommonCents]

2 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

He's right, though. This thing has probably only just begun. Highly contagious and yet less than one percent have been infected? That means this thing is a time bomb if we don't get a handle on it. Hope you are safe there airman! 

Or it means a ton of others already have it and barely showed any symptoms. No one really knows and I think that’s why people are scared. 

[billsfan1959]

7 hours ago, Scraps said:

Like I'm supposed to know exactly what was said in those classified briefings in the White House?  Its not like someone is going to come out and give all the details for fear of receiving the Vindman treatment.  Best I can surmise is they thought things were far more severe in China that they were admitting to.  Several former administration officials were tweeting or writing op-eds about it in January.  If the administration didn't have similar information, doesn't that show incompetence on their part?

 

Is there really any doubt that his response was inadequate?  All the happy talk saying things were under control and would soon go to zero when it was expanding?  A woefully inadequate request for $2.5 billion?  Happy talk about churches packed on Easter?  Isn't it obvious that he failed miserably?

 

Pretty much what was shared in those classified briefings to the House Intelligence Committee, currently chaired by Adam Schiff in a congress controlled by Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats.

 

7 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

He's right, though. This thing has probably only just begun. Highly contagious and yet less than one percent have been infected? That means this thing is a time bomb if we don't get a handle on it. Hope you are safe there airman! 

 

Ok, Tiberius, I'll play along. Serious question? How do you think this is going to play out here. Do you think the United States will follow a path closer to Germany? Closer to Italy? Somewhere in between? Or worse than Italy?

 

BTW, all the data seems to suggest far more people have been infected than have been identified - and nobody knows what that percentage is.

Edited April 3, 2020 by billsfan1959

[123719bwiqrb]

9 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

My bet is by the 4th of July you will be able to buy one at Rite-Aid.

 

actually I made this prediction 3 weeks ago.

 

I like your optimism.  Here's hoping!

[Tiberius]

3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Pretty much what was shared in those classified briefings to the House Intelligence Committee, currently chaired by Adam Schiff in a congress controlled by Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats.

 

Ok, Tiberius, I'll play along. Serious question? How do you think this is going to play out here. Do you think the United States will follow a path closer to Germany? Closer to Italy? Somewhere in between? Or worse than Italy?

Hard to say, because even Italy is not all of Italy, but the northern part is bad, while southern Italy isn't. I guess we will be like that, too. I'd guess that this thing rolls through the country at different times. I see Albany Georgia is getting hit hard now. Technology will be our saviour, if we get testing, vaccine and more medical supplies we will manage. 

[SoCal Deek]

All I can say is ‘wow’. People need to step back a bit. It’s now almost a week into April and the world hasn’t ended...not even close. What these past few weeks have proven is that the doomsday projections and analysis were way off. Now, I’m glad we have health officials telling us to be careful and warning everyone about potential risks but much the same as your mother cautioned you as you headed out the door EVERY SINGLE morning and the mere fact that you survived long enough to be in this chat room should be proof that she was just being a mom. I’m pretty sure you didn’t do everything she said. Yet you lived!

[Q-baby!]

8 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

All I can say is ‘wow’. People need to step back a bit. It’s now almost a week into April and the world hasn’t ended...not even close. What these past few weeks have proven is that the doomsday projections and analysis were way off. Now, I’m glad we have health officials telling us to be careful and warning everyone about potential risks but much the same as your mother cautioned you as you headed out the door EVERY SINGLE morning and the mere fact that you survived long enough to be in this chat room should be proof that she was just being a mom. I’m pretty sure you didn’t do everything she said. Yet you lived!

You sound like Trump. Stupid. 
everyone should probably go back to work soon right? That attitude will get people killed. 
 

Oh and it’s April 3rd. You using Trump math? 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Q-baby!

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Q-baby! said:

You sound like Trump. Stupid. 
everyone should probably go back to work soon right? That attitude will get people killed. 
 

Oh and it’s April 3rd. You using Trump math? 

Feel free to stay home Q. That’s up to you. You’ll make your own decision about when it’s safe to come out. (By the way, there are MILLIONS of people out right now, and there will always be, but you wouldn’t know that if you spend every waking second glued to the TV News Media who make money be convincing you that the world is ending, so you better keep consuming the product they sell.) 

[billsfan1959]

40 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Hard to say, because even Italy is not all of Italy, but the northern part is bad, while southern Italy isn't. I guess we will be like that, too. I'd guess that this thing rolls through the country at different times. I see Albany Georgia is getting hit hard now. Technology will be our saviour, if we get testing, vaccine and more medical supplies we will manage. 

 

Right. We don't know. That is my point. However, let's look at what we do know. Spain and Italy have been the hardest hit countries in the entire world. Much of that has to do with (1) the fact that their populations are older with median ages of 43 and 48, respectively  (95% of the virus deaths in Europe have been over the age of 60) and (2) their healthcare systems were overwhelmed early. Right now, they are both around 230 deaths per 1 million.

 

Even though the median age of the US is around 38, there is no evidence our healthcare system will reach anywhere near the burden of those in Spain and Italy, and the actual data suggests we are handling it better, let's say we take the path of Italy and Spain, and even go further with somewhere around 250 deaths per 1 million. That would equate to somewhere around 80,000 deaths.

 

BTW, one of the interesting things in Germany is that the number of confirmed cases, per capita, has been along the same path as most countries, yet they are experiencing fewer deaths, per capita, even with a median age in the range of Spain and Italy. They did some aggressive testing there early; however, much of that stems from (1) the fact that, for some reason, most of their confirmed cases have been with younger people where the death rate is less than the older population, and (2) their healthcare system not only didn't get overwhelmed, but took in people from surrounding countries.

Edited April 3, 2020 by billsfan1959

[Q-baby!]

18 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Feel free to stay home Q. That’s up to you. You’ll make your own decision about when it’s safe to come out. (By the way, there are MILLIONS of people out right now, and there will always be, but you wouldn’t know that if you spend every waking second glued to the TV News Media who make money be convincing you that the world is ending, so you better keep consuming the product they sell.) 

I get all the news I need from the Trump pressers. Don’t watch much more than a half hour beyond that. People are stupid and their actions are going to kill a lot of old people (who cares right?) You keep pretending everything if fine as the death toll climbs. 

[Beast]

20 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Feel free to stay home Q. That’s up to you. You’ll make your own decision about when it’s safe to come out. (By the way, there are MILLIONS of people out right now, and there will always be, but you wouldn’t know that if you spend every waking second glued to the TV News Media who make money be convincing you that the world is ending, so you better keep consuming the product they sell.) 

That’s exactly right. Go to the grocery store.Tons of people there.

 

The funny thing? I am working from home. Early this week my modem took a dump. I went to Walmart to buy another. Why couldn’t I have went to Best Buy? I guess because Walmart sells food I have to go tire where it was absolutely packed?

 

I can only imagine there are many similar stories to mine only different merchandise needed. That could have been bought at different, less crowded, locations.

[billsfan1959]

5 minutes ago, Q-baby! said:

I get all the news I need from the Trump pressers. Don’t watch much more than a half hour beyond that. People are stupid and their actions are going to kill a lot of old people (who cares right?) You keep pretending everything if fine as the death toll climbs. 

 

How many is that going to be? How many people do think are going to die in this country from the virus? I have asked this question of others who keep talking about all the people that are going to die. Please, go on record with what you think is going to happen here and provide your supporting data.

[SoCal Deek]

5 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

That’s exactly right. Go to the grocery store.Tons of people there.

 

The funny thing? I am working from home. Early this week my modem took a dump. I went to Walmart to buy another. Why couldn’t I have went to Best Buy? I guess because Walmart sells food I have to go tire where it was absolutely packed?

 

I can only imagine there are many similar stories to mine only different merchandise needed. That could have been bought at different, less crowded, locations.

Interesting statistic: over One Million people die every year worldwide from traffic accidents. In the USA alone we lose 90 per day!

[BuffaloHokie13]

24 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

BTW, one of the interesting things in Germany is that the number of confirmed cases, per capita, has been along the same path as most countries, yet they are experiencing fewer deaths, per capita, even with a median age in the range of Spain and Italy. They did some aggressive testing there early; however, much of that stems from (1) the fact that, for some reason, most of their confirmed cases have been with younger people where the death rate is less than the older population, and (2) their healthcare system not only didn't get overwhelmed, but took in people from surrounding countries.

I haven't had time to dig into it yet, so feel free to enlighten me if you know more, but I have heard rumblings that in many countries anyone who dies with covid is being counted as opposed to counted specifically those who died from covid. I'm wondering if that is also a part of the discrepancy. It would not surprise me if Germany was providing more valid data by ensuring it is represented properly. 

[billsfan1959]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I haven't had time to dig into it yet, so feel free to enlighten me if you know more, but I have heard rumblings that in many countries anyone who dies with covid is being counted as opposed to counted specifically those who died from covid. I'm wondering if that is also a part of the discrepancy. It would not surprise me if Germany was providing more valid data by ensuring it is represented properly. 

 

I haven't researched that yet either. I think it will be interesting to look at the statistics when this is all over and how they compare to "normal" stats. For instance, approximately 175,000 - 200,000 people die each year in this country from influenza, Pneumonia, and chronic lower respiratory diseases (and you can only imagine what those figures are worldwide). I wonder what those figures will look like when we look back at this year.

Edited April 3, 2020 by billsfan1959

[shoshin]

52 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

All I can say is ‘wow’. People need to step back a bit. It’s now almost a week into April and the world hasn’t ended...not even close. What these past few weeks have proven is that the doomsday projections and analysis were way off. Now, I’m glad we have health officials telling us to be careful and warning everyone about potential risks but much the same as your mother cautioned you as you headed out the door EVERY SINGLE morning and the mere fact that you survived long enough to be in this chat room should be proof that she was just being a mom. I’m pretty sure you didn’t do everything she said. Yet you lived!

 

The underlined was and easy reaction to predict. We social distance and the spread and deaths maybe level in a few weeks and after that, go down...and people then say, "See, it wasn't as bad as people said it would be." 

 

What do you think will happen when we lift the quarantine and the vast majority of the population gets exposed to this instead of the small numbers that we are seeing now? 

 

 

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

The underlined was and easy reaction to predict. We social distance and the spread and deaths maybe level in a few weeks and after that, go down...and people then say, "See, it wasn't as bad as people said it would be." 

 

What do you think will happen when we lift the quarantine and the vast majority of the population gets exposed to this instead of the small numbers that we are seeing now? 

 

You tell us

[Scraps]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

Pretty much what was shared in those classified briefings to the House Intelligence Committee, currently chaired by Adam Schiff in a congress controlled by Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats.

And how am I supposed to know what was said in those classified briefings?  And given Trump's resistance to oversight, how do I know the House Intelligence Committee received the access to all the witnesses they asked for?

[Buffalo_Gal]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I haven't had time to dig into it yet, so feel free to enlighten me if you know more, but I have heard rumblings that in many countries anyone who dies with covid is being counted as opposed to counted specifically those who died from covid. I'm wondering if that is also a part of the discrepancy. It would not surprise me if Germany was providing more valid data by ensuring it is represented properly. 

That is a good thought... the dying "with" is also happening in NYC for a death count numbers.  Looking at the numbers released to date, my guess would be the number of cases are vastly understated (lack of testing, recovery without diagnosis, etc) and the deaths are overstated.