DK Metcalf mea culpa

[BarleyNY]

18 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

ORLY?

 

Look strictly at production, and tell me again it was nuts.

 

Yes.  Really.  Metcalf was a risky pick not because he didn’t have a high ceiling, but because of the very real possibility that he would fail.  People can play the hindsight game all they want, but he was who he was as a prospect.  He was a supremely big, fast WR who lacked lateral agility and was very raw technically.  You do not take such a player in the top 10 because the bust rate for that kind of player is high.  Day 2?  Have at it.  
 

To his credit he has worked very hard and has improved his route running a great deal.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

12 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

And he makes them in Seattle. I don’t see the point. We needed a lineman as well. It’s not a miss on a draft pick in year one. 

I didn’t say anything about a Draft miss, just that dk Metcalf looks much more promising and versatile than I and many others originally thought and coincidentally a number of his plays remind us all that the bills WRs aren’t very good.  
 

do you see it now? 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

41 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:

Beane can't find WRs... Get FA We s that you know are good.

he’s drafted 1 in the sixth round  since he started and a few UDFAs.  Not sure it’s been a draft priority for him 

[Happy]

9 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Ford will be a solid lineman for years to come. Bills will get a WR in FA or draft this year.

 

We can only hope Ford will at least make a solid G.  Supposedly the draft is deep in WRs this year.

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

Yes.  Really.  Metcalf was a risky pick not because he didn’t have a high ceiling, but because of the very real possibility that he would fail.  People can play the hindsight game all they want, but he was who he was as a prospect.  He was a supremely big, fast WR who lacked lateral agility and was very raw technically.  You do not take such a player in the top 10 because the bust rate for that kind of player is high.  Day 2?  Have at it.  
 

To his credit he has worked very hard and has improved his route running a great deal.

 

As I said in the lead up to the draft, I would argue that aside from potential health concerns (which you and I wouldn't have a clue about), he was one of the safest prospects in the draft. At the absolute minimum, it was easy to see he'd be what he was this year: a very dangerous vertical threat and a very dangerous contested catch threat. On Day 1, he was immediately a mismatch for pretty much every corner in the NFL.

 

Obviously Seattle hopes he rounds his skillset out so that he can impact the game in more ways; but from Day 1 without improving on anything from college, he was going to be a guy that you basically pray drops the ball or you send a safety to help over the top and therefore open up the offense for everyone else.

 

Edit: That's not to say that he'd be considered a good pick in the top 10 if he never improved on anything, but his floor (aside from potential injuries) was that he was going to be a very good deep threat that opens things up for his teammates every single play. That's better than a lot of picks end up being and would have helped our offense a lot.

 

Edit x2: Also just FWIW, I did have Oliver higher on my board than DK. But DK was my next choice and both of them were top 7ish prospects IMO.

Edited January 6, 2020 by DCOrange

[PetermansRedemption]

My draft crush was Josh Allen in 2018. In 2019 it was DK Metcalf. I would have taken him at 9 if Oliver wasn’t there. Given how things shaped up I would have ran to the podium in the second round to grab him. I said it at draft time, even if your first year plan for DK was to tell him to run straight a few times a game and chuck the 50/50 ball to him, ok. Add in a few screens as well. 

[racketmaster]

Would have liked AJ Brown in  the 2nd. Maybe one of the few mistake Beane has made was trading up for Ford. Hopefully, Ford develops into a solid OT but it sure would have been nice to have had a legitimate #1 wr on the outside last week. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

As I said in the lead up to the draft, I would argue that aside from potential health concerns (which you and I wouldn't have a clue about), he was one of the safest prospects in the draft. At the absolute minimum, it was easy to see he'd be what he was this year: a very dangerous vertical threat and a very dangerous contested catch threat. On Day 1, he was immediately a mismatch for pretty much every corner in the NFL.

 

Obviously Seattle hopes he rounds his skillset out so that he can impact the game in more ways; but from Day 1 without improving on anything from college, he was going to be a guy that you basically pray drops the ball or you send a safety to help over the top and therefore open up the offense for everyone else.

Dangerous vertical threat? Have you watched any Seahawks games? Very few of his catches are go routes. He catches mostly slants and WR screens. 

[DCOrange]

2 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Dangerous vertical threat? Have you watched any Seahawks games? Very few of his catches are go routes. He catches mostly slants and WR screens. 

Yes, I've watched plenty. I would expect that the majority of catches for basically every receiver are not go routes. He's still going north-south more than almost any other WR in football, and that's backed up both by the eye test and the numbers.

[BuffaloBill963]

13 hours ago, NewEra said:

Why? 

He clearly views himself as superior in some ways and gets off on people actually showing humility. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Please prove that statement.

 

He had two really good games, and the rest of the year did next to nothing.

 

Could he become a good rotational DT? Sure. Is that worth a #9 pick? I doubt it.

 

DT takes a few years to devleop. I didn’t like the pick but iti s far too soon to say it wasn't worth the pick

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Portland said:

DT takes a few years to devleop. I didn’t like the pick but iti s far too soon to say it wasn't worth the pick

 

If the first sentence is true, then wasting a #9 pick on a player who won't make an impact for three years at THIS stage of the rebuild was an error.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

7 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Yes, I've watched plenty. I would expect that the majority of catches for basically every receiver are not go routes. He's still going north-south more than almost any other WR in football, and that's backed up both by the eye test and the numbers.

He is a physically dominant player the Bills always seem to lack. OJ, Bruce, Mario, and maybe TO are a small handful of players that were able to dominate by shear physicality in Bills uniform. Bills need that type of player at WR.

[Don Otreply]

 I just want the team to be successful,  and frankly the team was successful this past season. ( not as much as I would like) Me, I don’t dwell on stuff like,  wish we shoulda done this or that... smh, to many variables in play to think a given choice in the past would change outcomes in a way one thinks it will is a vain endeavor. 

 

Go Bills!!!

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Just now, Joe in Winslow said:

 

If the first sentence is true, then wasting a #9 pick on a player who won't make an impact for three years at THIS stage of the rebuild was an error.

 

How do you figure that, they were a four win team last year and have a second year QB. If Beane and McD have done anything it is to say they are building for long term success. 
 

That said I would have traded up for Josh Allen OLB or traded down. 

[HeHateMe]

bUT ThE CoNe DriLL MaN!!

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

14 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

You should dwell on this for the next five years or so at least. 

You know we passed on Gronk for Torell Troup, right?

[BarleyNY]

36 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

As I said in the lead up to the draft, I would argue that aside from potential health concerns (which you and I wouldn't have a clue about), he was one of the safest prospects in the draft. At the absolute minimum, it was easy to see he'd be what he was this year: a very dangerous vertical threat and a very dangerous contested catch threat. On Day 1, he was immediately a mismatch for pretty much every corner in the NFL.

 

Obviously Seattle hopes he rounds his skillset out so that he can impact the game in more ways; but from Day 1 without improving on anything from college, he was going to be a guy that you basically pray drops the ball or you send a safety to help over the top and therefore open up the offense for everyone else.

 

Edit: That's not to say that he'd be considered a good pick in the top 10 if he never improved on anything, but his floor (aside from potential injuries) was that he was going to be a very good deep threat that opens things up for his teammates every single play. That's better than a lot of picks end up being and would have helped our offense a lot.

 

Edit x2: Also just FWIW, I did have Oliver higher on my board than DK. But DK was my next choice and both of them were top 7ish prospects IMO.

His neck injuries were definitely a concern to those of us without access to his medicals as you note.  Even if that checked out I can’t believe that you’d consider him a safe pick.  Elite speed and ability to outmuscle corners, yes.  In spades.  But coupled with suspect hands, terrible lateral agility and inexperience as a route runner he definitely carried a fair bit of risk.  If we’d have flipped 74 and 96 for a late 2nd round pick and taken him, I’d have applauded it.  But at 9, hell no.  Incidentally, if he would’ve been our pick at 9 I don’t think we’d be looking at him nearly as favorably.  A top 10 pick at WR should be a lock to be a dominant, game changing player.  A quality WR, sure, but I don’t see top 10 pick. 
 

Incidentally Oliver was the best prospect I thought we’d have a chance to get at 9.  The Simmons injury really put getting a top DT in jeopardy.  I was ecstatic we got Oliver at 9.  I had a clump if players rated similarly if he’d have gone at 8 and we couldn’t move back. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by BarleyNY

[Motor26]

12 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

If the first sentence is true, then wasting a #9 pick on a player who won't make an impact for three years at THIS stage of the rebuild was an error.

 

 

This stage in the rebuild? You mean like the first year they were going to be competitive? The window just opened up for the Bills. Oliver will develop.

[mannc]

As pissed off as I was that we didn’t take Metcalf when he was available in round 2, I’d feel even worse if I had spent a late first round pick on a WR and it turned out to be N’Keal Harry.

[starrymessenger]

I was not surprised DK dropped in the draft. I liked him but in the second. I also liked Samuel and especially AJ Brown better, and long term still probably do.

Edited January 6, 2020 by starrymessenger

[DCOrange]

31 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

His neck injuries were definitely a concern to those of us without access to his medicals as you note.  Even if that checked out I can’t believe that you’d consider him a safe pick.  Elite speed and ability to outmuscle corners, yes.  In spades.  But coupled with suspect hands, terrible lateral agility and inexperience as a route runner he definitely carried a fair bit of risk.  If we’d have flipped 74 and 96 for a late 2nd round pick and taken him, I’d have applauded it.  But at 9, hell no.  Incidentally, if he would’ve been our pick at 9 I don’t think we’d be looking at him nearly as favorably.  A top 10 pick at WR should be a lock to be a dominant, game changing player.  A quality WR, sure, but I don’t see top 10 pick. 
 

Incidentally Oliver was the best prospect I thought we’d have a chance to get at 9.  The Simmons injury really put getting a top DT in jeopardy.  I was ecstatic we got Oliver at 9.  I had a clump if players rated similarly if he’d have gone at 8 and we couldn’t move back. 

I would argue that DK was a gamechanger from day 1, just not in the traditional, 100-catch per year, kind of way. The threat of him changes the way the defense has to defend the Seahawks basically every play.

[BarleyNY]

29 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I would argue that DK was a gamechanger from day 1, just not in the traditional, 100-catch per year, kind of way. The threat of him changes the way the defense has to defend the Seahawks basically every play.

I’d argue that he is a fine WR with potential to be a game changer, but that you’re overstating his impact to date.  He wasn’t even the most productive receiver on his team (though he had a very good season for a rookie).  And it doesn’t change the risk-reward factor.  High upside WRs who have big questions about their games generally fall out of the first round.  Sometimes you get Juju Smith Schuster and sometimes you get Zay Jones - and more often than not it’s the latter.  That why you don’t take prospects like that 9th overall, you take them later.  I’m just going to leave it there. 

[4BillsintheBurgh]

8 hours ago, Lenigmusx said:

Singletary is going to be one of the best backs in the league for the next few years. I would not give that pick back for anyone.

Disagree there too, he doesn't have the flat out speed. He is nice around the line of scrimmage and can get some chunk yardage but it will be difficult for him to carry our team offensively. I'm really hoping C Wade can learn the pass blocking assignments because I would really love the two of them as a one two punch.

[Boca BIlls]

6 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

he’s drafted 1 in the sixth round  since he started and a few UDFAs.  Not sure it’s been a draft priority for him 

Might be a reason for that...

[Alphadawg7]

Here is where I say I told you so.  

 

I was championing DK Metcalf long before his combine.  I kept telling everyone he was the one true legit #1 WR in the draft.  Funny how much people argued with me about him who actually knew nothing really about him.  All they said was "3 cone" over and over or that he was too big.  One guy swore he would be popped for steroids and it was impossible to be that fit without them lmao.  

 

Here are the WR's I was targeting going into the draft when everyone kept telling it was a bad draft for WR's even though I kept saying it was quite good.  

Metcalf

Harry

AJ Brown

Deebo

McLaurin

Campbell

 

Most turned out to be pretty darn good rookies (one got hurt).  I also said Zay sucks and would get traded (and they did try and trade him before the season started).  I also said keep an eye out for David Sills V if the Bills don't draft a WR early.  I also said don't sleep on Duke, he had a shot to make the team and could push to start (which he eventually did, including the playoffs).

 

Hmmmm...maybe I know a little something about WR's...someone call Beane and have them bring me in on a consultants deal to help fix the WR position this year ?

 

NOTE:  I dont fault Beane for not drafting a WR though last year, we had a lot of holes to fill and I had no issues with any of his picks on draft night.  I personally would have taken DK instead of Ford, but at the time of the draft I also got the Ford pick and was fine with building up our trenches.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

19 hours ago, NewEra said:

Why? 

 

I've probably been the foremost Metcalf backer since before the draft around here.

 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

I've probably been the foremost Metcalf backer since before the draft around here.

 

You got lucky that the Seahawks drafted you

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, NewEra said:

You got lucky that the Seahawks drafted you

If only, then I wouldn't be answering my 100th stupid question of the day right now.

 

[Plano]

why is this board obsessed with speaking latin

[JaCrispy]

16 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Wrong!!!

Dawkins, Allen,  Edmunds,  Knox.  

Let me guess, you're an Allen hater.  Front Office.  

Oh dear gussie, no...”hate” is such a strong word and should never be used- even in the most trying of times...But I am, however, still not yet sold on him being a franchise QB- if that’s what you were alluding to...

[Chicken Boo]

How anyone could look at his measurables and scoff at them because of a *****in 3-cone drill is mind boggling.  

 

I saw D.K. coming a mile away.

3 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

I've probably been the foremost Metcalf backer since before the draft around here.

 

 

I beg to differ.  I was on that train in November of last year.

[Solomon Grundy]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Here is where I say I told you so.  

 

I was championing DK Metcalf long before his combine.  I kept telling everyone he was the one true legit #1 WR in the draft.  Funny how much people argued with me about him who actually knew nothing really about him.  All they said was "3 cone" over and over or that he was too big.  One guy swore he would be popped for steroids and it was impossible to be that fit without them lmao.  

 

Here are the WR's I was targeting going into the draft when everyone kept telling it was a bad draft for WR's even though I kept saying it was quite good.  

Metcalf

Harry

AJ Brown

Deebo

McLaurin

Campbell

 

Most turned out to be pretty darn good rookies (one got hurt).  I also said Zay sucks and would get traded (and they did try and trade him before the season started).  I also said keep an eye out for David Sills V if the Bills don't draft a WR early.  I also said don't sleep on Duke, he had a shot to make the team and could push to start (which he eventually did, including the playoffs).

 

Hmmmm...maybe I know a little something about WR's...someone call Beane and have them bring me in on a consultants deal to help fix the WR position this year ?

 

NOTE:  I dont fault Beane for not drafting a WR though last year, we had a lot of holes to fill and I had no issues with any of his picks on draft night.  I personally would have taken DK instead of Ford, but at the time of the draft I also got the Ford pick and was fine with building up our trenches.  

Do a search, I was on board with you!!

9 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Yes.  Really.  Metcalf was a risky pick not because he didn’t have a high ceiling, but because of the very real possibility that he would fail.  People can play the hindsight game all they want, but he was who he was as a prospect.  He was a supremely big, fast WR who lacked lateral agility and was very raw technically.  You do not take such a player in the top 10 because the bust rate for that kind of player is high.  Day 2?  Have at it.  
 

To his credit he has worked very hard and has improved his route running a great deal.

Many of us wanted him in the 2nd. 

[Nihilarian]

I didn't want him either because of his lousy 3 cone drill and he could only one one route...

 

Lots of teams got this one wrong, so I don't feel so bad.

[Lenigmusx]

4 hours ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

Disagree there too, he doesn't have the flat out speed. He is nice around the line of scrimmage and can get some chunk yardage but it will be difficult for him to carry our team offensively. I'm really hoping C Wade can learn the pass blocking assignments because I would really love the two of them as a one two punch.

Agree on Wade but some of the greatest backs in league history weren’t super fast. Even Thurman was not a “break away” back but he could pick up large chunks with his power/shiftiness/ability to hit the hole. That is actually who Singletary reminds me of.  

 

Singletary has the highest yards per carry 5.1 of any back in the league this year. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by Lenigmusx

[Mopreme]

Anybody in this year‘s draft similar to Metcalf or Duke Williams with speed and separation ability? Josh needs some big guys. 

[BarleyNY]

35 minutes ago, the skycap said:

 

Many of us wanted him in the 2nd. 

I’d have been good with that.  I won’t fault a GM for going with a well regarded big ugly at the top of the second though.  I’d have taken Ford too.  But as Metcalf fell to the bottom of the second round I’d have been happy to see them go get him.  Heck, that’s a 3rd and 4th (or less).   Not that I don’t like Singletary.  I really do.

 

Edit: When he fell so far I assumed it was due to his medicals (neck).  Apparently that wasn’t the issue. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by BarleyNY