The Bills Formula For Winning in 2019 Was Never Sustainable For Playoffs

[Phil The Thrill]

After a big loss like last night, fans are obviously going to be pointing fingers.  Everyone has one unit or person to blame, and the truth it’s never just a player, a coach, or an official.  It’s usually a combination of all.  We can blame whoever we want (personally I think Allen melted down in the second half) but that’s what happened last night - a total team loss.  

 

But last night was also the perfect example

of how so many games played out this season - especially against good teams.   The formula for winning is based on the defenses ability to hold teams under 17-20 points.  This is a problem because in the playoffs you’ll be playing good offenses and this is unlikely.  
 

If the defense slips up a little and is unable to limit a team to under 17 points, the Bills usually lose.   Outside of Miami, the Bills have never won a game when the opponent have scored more than 17 points.  We’re not talking blowouts either.  The offense has not been good enough to score more than 20 points in almost every game this year.  It happened again last night.  
 

It would be foolish and shortsighted to think that this is how McDermott wants to win.  I think that given how bad the offense has been, he knows that this is the Bills best chance to win, which likely explains some of the play calls.  They just don’t have an offense that can score more than 17 points, and again, I think QB play is a huge reason for this.  

I also do think he deserves credit for winning 10 games with an underperforming offense.  The overall coaching job this year has been great. 

 

Take a look:

 

N.Y. Jets

W 17-16

N.Y. Giants

W 28-14

Cincinnati

W 21-17

New England

L 16-10

Tennessee

W 14-7

Miami

W 31-21

Philadelphia

L 31-13

Washington

W 24-9

Cleveland

L 19-16

Miami

W 37-20

Denver

W 20-3

Dallas

W 26-15

Baltimore

L 24-17

PittsburgH

W 17-10

New England

L 24-17

 

Why does this happen?  It’s largely a mix between execution and playcalling.  Again, I’m going to be accused of being a “hater” or a “crusader” as it’s called in here - but I think the biggest reason why has to do with Josh Allen not having the ability (yet?) to show that he can consistently finish drives with TD’s in moments when they need him to, like Watson did last night.  While it isn’t all on Josh, his teammates have let him down too and you can argue some of the play calls haven’t put them in a good position.  
 

For the Bills to get better, this will have to improve and the team should improve the offensive talent  in the offseason again.  
 

But 2020 will be a giant year.  All the usual suspects should be back next year - McDermott, Daboll, Allen, and there won’t be any excuses next year.  
 

It’s put up or shut up and the excuses of this being “a young team that is growing” is running out.  Onto 2020.

Edited January 5, 2020 by Phil The Thrill

[SoCal Deek]

One thing I’ll remember from the year is that other than the odd game against the Eagles, the Bills never lost by more than a single score, including yesterday. That’s pretty remarkable over a long season.

[Phil The Thrill]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

One thing I’ll remember from the year is that other than the odd game against the Eagles, the Bills never lost by more than a single score, including yesterday. That’s pretty remarkable over a long season.

 

It’s a testament for having a great defense and an offense that doesn’t score enough points.  But it’s also a sign of good coaching IMO

[SCBills]

Allen and Singletary were our entire offense.   
 

A second year QB and a rookie RB.  
 

Josh had 264 yards passing, 92 yards rushing and a TD reception.  
 

Singletary was our leading RECEIVER.  (Huh?)

 

We desperately need some upgrades on Offense, and these stats, in a playoff game, could not be more eye opening.  
 

You are correct in how the game was coached.  Get up 2 scores, then limit mistakes and hope the defense holds.  Not going for the jugular haunted them, and they better have learned their lesson.   I do think, with improved talent, next year they will. 
 

 

Edited January 5, 2020 by SCBills

[oldmanfan]

Defense and running the ball wins playoff games.  In the second half our D let down and we quit letting Motor and Allen run.

[Phil The Thrill]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Allen and Singletary were our entire offense.   
 

A second year QB and a rookie RB.  
 

Josh had 264 yards passing, 92 yards rushing and a TD reception.  
 

Singletary was our leading RECEIVER.  (Huh?)

 

We desperately need some upgrades on Offense, and these stats, in a playoff game, could not be more eye opening.  
 

You are correct in how the game was coached.  Get up 2 scores, then limit mistakes and hope the defense holds.  Not going for the jugular haunted them, and they better have learned their lesson. 

I think you might be missing the point though.  The reason they didn’t go for the kill is because they don’t have a QB that has shown the ability to pull this off.  Allen melted down last night and even if they went for the kill, I don’t think anything changes

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Defense and running the ball wins playoff games.  In the second half our D let down and we quit letting Motor and Allen run.

But scoring less that 20 points a game loses games which is what Allen has consistently done alL season long.  Right now, he isn’t good enough to score more than 17 points a game

Edited January 5, 2020 by Phil The Thrill

[dayman]

It is both true that the offense needs upgrading and that Allen is a prime reason we don't score. 

 

Allen did meltdown last night in the second half, did fail to finish drives with TDs in the first half, and is to blame for us not putting points up. 

 

 

[Doc]

And yet...there the Bills were driving for what could have been the winning FG in OT only to have the refs decide the outcome on their final drive.

 

Edit: let me add that I didn't think the Bills would have made it far in the playoffs because of the offense.  But they should have won that game at least.

Edited January 5, 2020 by Doc

[SCBills]

13 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

I think you might be missing the point though.  The reason they didn’t go for the kill is because they don’t have a QB that has shown the ability to pull this off.  Allen melted down last night and even if they went for the kill, I don’t think anything changes

But scoring less that 20 points a game loses games which is what Allen has consistently done alL season long.  Right now, he isn’t good enough to score more than 17 points a game

I think it’s 50/50.   We probably score a TD if Allen gets the ball out quicker to Brown on the sideline out at the 4.   He doesn’t.  Brown only gets one foot in.  We kick a FG.  
 

However, running on 2nd and 10 out of a heavy set, for one yard, does not put Allen and the Offense in a good position to continually have to convert 3rd and longs. 
 

Lots of blame to go around, but Allen was dealing in that first half, and after the first drive, we went conservative as soon as we knew we had 3 points on the board.   The Gore run prior to the half was unforgivable.   Instead of having multiple chances at a TD, we gave ourselves one, on a low percentage throw from 25 yards out.  Repeat that thought process all game, all season really... 
 

 

Edited January 5, 2020 by SCBills

[Heitz]

Lotta truths in this thread.  Bottom line for me, is that we need more talent on the O, stat.

[Phil The Thrill]

Just now, SCBills said:

I think it’s 50/50.   We probably score a TD if Allen gets the ball out quicker to Brown on the sideline out at the 4.   He doesn’t.  Brown only gets one foot in.  We kick a FG.  
 

However, running on 2nd and 10 out of a heavy set, for one yard, does not put Allen and the Offense in a good position to continually have to convert 3rd and longs. 
 

Lots of blame to go around, but Allen was dealing in that first half, and after the first drive, we went conservative as soon as we knew we had 3 points on the board.   The Gore run prior to the half was unforgivable.  

Maybe.... but I do think that Josh’s limitations really influence the playcalling 

[NoSaint]

23 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Allen and Singletary were our entire offense.   
 

A second year QB and a rookie RB.  
 

Josh had 264 yards passing, 92 yards rushing and a TD reception.  
 

Singletary was our leading RECEIVER.  (Huh?)

 

We desperately need some upgrades on Offense, and these stats, in a playoff game, could not be more eye opening.  
 

You are correct in how the game was coached.  Get up 2 scores, then limit mistakes and hope the defense holds.  Not going for the jugular haunted them, and they better have learned their lesson.   I do think, with improved talent, next year they will. 
 

 

plenty of us have been getting hammered for saying you need stars to win in this league for the duration of this regime. 
 

tre is a star on D and made a huge play. We need that guy that can get after the qb reliably in the biggest moment, the pass catcher, and hopefully Allen. 
 

we just burned one of our easiest opportunities to pair those stars with a great supporting cast. 

Edited January 5, 2020 by NoSaint

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

3 Seasons

McDermott Offense averages 18.5 points per game.

 

Tyrod Taylor, Nate Peterman, Matt Barkley, Josh Allen, the other guys...

 

Doesn’t matter who, usually ends up being the same outcome... 1-2 Touchdowns 1-2 Field Goals per game.  And hope the defense holds.

 

one constant?  Coach McDermott and his philosophy.

 

So...

[SCBills]

6 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

plenty of us have been getting hammered for saying you need stars to win in this league for the duration of this regime. 
 

tre is a star on D and made a huge play. We need that guy that can get after the qb reliably in the biggest movement, the pass catcher, and hopefully Allen. 

Yup.  In the end, it was Watson/Hopkins/Watt vs Allen/Singletary/Tre.  
 

I thought we would win the game, even with their star power being stronger and more experienced, but like McDermott... I didn’t realize our “elite” defense would fold against a Texans team missing their 3rd  best weapon on Offense. 
 

Star Power beat Conventional Wisdom.  
 

Big time learning moment. 
 

Edited January 5, 2020 by SCBills

[CEN-CAL17]

Plain and simple this team needs a top 15 offense minimum to be able to compete for a title.... avg 17-18 pts a game offense won’t cut it....

 

to ask a defense to not give up more than 2 TDs vs these top NFL teams is never gonna work.

 

If this offense can turn things around next year this team may be in the talks for a title. The Bills  offense needs to be around 24-25 pts average. Josh needs to be around a 62-65% completions avg... Bills need a legit RB2 (Jordan Howard FA), and another WR....

 

Fan think this WR Corp needs a round 1 guy, I don’t. Brown, Beasley, Duke, McKenzie, Foster, Knox is a great start to work with.... if we can get a another solid vet, or if Beane can find a steal in round 3 we are good.

 

Bills need a RT, LB and DE.... meaning keep building on the trenches and Defense front 7!!!!!!

[Phil The Thrill]

7 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

3 Seasons

McDermott Offense averages 18.5 points per game.

 

Tyrod Taylor, Nate Peterman, Matt Barkley, Josh Allen, the other guys...

 

Doesn’t matter who, usually ends up being the same outcome... 1-2 Touchdowns 1-2 Field Goals per game.  And hope the defense holds.

 

one constant?  Coach McDermott and his philosophy.

 

So...

Isn’t the other constant that all 3 are not franchise QB’s?  Allen has a pass for being young

 

I also think you have to consider the talent.  The teams in 2017 and 2018 were terrible outside of Shady.

 

In 2019, the Bills hade Allen, Dawkins, and 10 new starters.  We’ll see what happens next year.  Like I said - no excuses

Edited January 5, 2020 by Phil The Thrill

[zow2]

It struck me last night how our season ended just like it began in the Jets game...but in reverse. This time we blew the 16-0 lead.  
 

Houston made halftime adjustments.  Watson started getting the ball out quickly.  Our D wilted late.  Allen needs to do better. In Buffalo we think he’s going to be great. I read other fan sites around the USA and they think Allen is a mess and somewhere between Mariota and Trubisky on the scale of QBs.  He has raise his level of accuracy going forward and learn to throw passes with more of an arc instead of always so flat. That’s my opinion.

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, CEN-CAL17 said:

Plain and simple this team needs a top 15 offense minimum to be able to compete for a title.... avg 17-18 pts a game offense won’t cut it....

 

to ask a defense to not give up more than 2 TDs vs these top NFL teams is never gonna work.

 

If this offense can turn things around next year this team may be in the talks for a title. The Bills  offense needs to be around 24-25 pts average. Josh needs to be around a 62-65% completions avg... Bills need a legit RB2 (Jordan Howard FA), and another WR....

 

Fan think this WR Corp needs a round 1 guy, I don’t. Brown, Beasley, Duke, McKenzie, Foster, Knox is a great start to work with.... if we can get a another solid vet, or if Beane can find a steal in round 3 we are good.

 

Bills need a RT, LB and DE.... meaning keep building on the trenches and Defense front 7!!!!!!

Singletary was our leading WR in a playoff game.  
 

Brown had a nice season, and Beasley is a good slot, but we desperately need WR help.   Hopkins came alive, on Tre White of all people, when it mattered.  Presenting a big target to Watson, with separation.   Obviously we can’t just go out and get a Hopkins, but Brown and Beasley ain’t it.  They’re nice complementary pieces, but tell me why Duke, in his first playoff game, looked like our best WR option?   ....because he was.  ....and he's not the answer.  I’d keep him on the roster, but give me two big WRs in the offseason.   I’m sick of this smurf garbage. 

Edited January 5, 2020 by SCBills

[BillsFanSD]

Let's remember that we just finished Year 2 of a complete team rebuild.  Our offense in particular only returned two starters.  Several of the new additions were guys who we were able to pick up for cheap as stop-gaps. This isn't a finished product.

[NoSaint]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Yup.  In the end, it was Watson/Hopkins/Watt vs Allen/Singletary/Tre.  
 

I thought we would win the game, even with their star power being stronger and more experienced, but like McDermott... I didn’t realize our “elite” defense would fold against a Texans team missing their 3rd  best weapon on Offense. 
 

Star Power beat Conventional Wisdom.  
 

Big time learning moment. 
 

conventional wisdom IS that you get the stars AND depth right now. Pretty much every team with a young qb does it for a reason. 
 

for some reason a lot of our base prefers we remain modest and scrappy instead.

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, zow2 said:

It struck me last night how our season ended just like it began in the Jets game...but in reverse. This time we blew the 16-0 lead.  
 

Houston made halftime adjustments.  Watson started getting the ball out quickly.  Our D wilted late.  Allen needs to do better. In Buffalo we think he’s going to be great. I read other fan sites around the USA and they think Allen is a mess and somewhere between Mariota and Trubisky on the scale of QBs.  He has raise his level of accuracy going forward and learn to throw passes with more of an arc instead of always so flat. That’s my opinion.

His 4th quarter meltdown is more defining than the actual game.  He was phenomenal in the first half.  Not asked to do much of anything in the 3rd quarter.  Then had 3 bizarro world plays almost in succession.  We lost, so he gets remembered for that unfortunately.  If we won, he’d be offset by the across-his-body throws that extended drives to tie/win the game.  
 

That’s how it goes.  Especially for people who never really watch him.  
 

 

Edited January 5, 2020 by SCBills

[NoSaint]

1 minute ago, zow2 said:

It struck me last night how our season ended just like it began in the Jets game...but in reverse. This time we blew the 16-0 lead.  
 

Houston made halftime adjustments.  Watson started getting the ball out quickly.  Our D wilted late.  Allen needs to do better. In Buffalo we think he’s going to be great. I read other fan sites around the USA and they think Allen is a mess and somewhere between Mariota and Trubisky on the scale of QBs.  He has raise his level of accuracy going forward and learn to throw passes with more of an arc instead of always so flat. That’s my opinion.

we gave up 2 touchdowns in 3 quarters after half time. This wasn’t an epic defensive collapse. It was an above average game from the unit. They shouldn’t have to be historically good at all times.

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

1 minute ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Isn’t the other constant that all 3 are not franchise QB’s?  Allen has a pass for being young

No pass for Allen on him being young.

 

Allens contemporaries and their successes at the same age and experiences don’t give Allen the Lee-way to play the “green” card.

 

i would more be willing to give Allen a pass based on being saddle with a Head Coach whose philosophies are just way conservative and whose history now shows he doesn’t know how to develop offenses to score points.

 

 

[Doc]

For those criticizing Josh in the 4th quarter, did you actually watch the play of the OL?

[billsfan_34]

1 hour ago, Phil The Thrill said:

 

It’s a testament for having a great defense and an offense that doesn’t score enough points.  But it’s also a sign of good coaching IMO

The next step is to keep this D together and the offense adding some pieces, Josh improving and scoring more points. Allow me to add, and I can’t believe I am saying this, but Poyer seemed like a diminished player this season. Maybe analytics etc can prove me wrong but to the naked eye he just did not seem the same.

Edited January 5, 2020 by billsfan_34

[NoSaint]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

For those criticizing Josh in the 4th quarter, did you actually watch the play of the OL?

Are you trying to imply that excuses his play?

[Phil The Thrill]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

For those criticizing Josh in the 4th quarter, did you actually watch the play of the OL?

Yes and he still melted down 

[SunDSolar]

This offense is way to conservative and this lacks the boot to throat mentality that winning playoff teams must have.

 

Just look at the play call with 32 seconds left in the half.   You come out of a timeout and call a run play.  What the ***** was that about.  This gave us only one shot at the endzone, instead of what should have been multiple tries at it.   

 

Of course the very next play Josh Allen took that one shot, made an absolutely perfect throw, put it on Duke Williams and he dropped it.  

 

This run call was the beginning of the end for this team in this game.  

 

 

[Ya Digg?]

I’m not saying that Allen doesn’t deserve blame, but he’s not the one who gave up 19 points in the second half. And yes, he made some boneheaded decisions (throwing deep to a FB, that lateral) but let’s not forget some of the GREAT throws he made-the throw across the field to Duke, the laser to Singletary on third down across his body as he was forced to the sideline, the perfect throw to Duke in the end zone (tough catch but it could’ve been made). 
 

This is the problem with social media today. Very rarely do people acknowledge the good and bad. If you didn’t like Allen from the beginning you are always looking at the flaws. If you’re in team Allen you are always looking for other reasons why the team played poorly. Was he a reason for the loss last night-yes. If he is in your top 2 or 3 reasons why they lost though you weren’t watching the same game I was 

[Doc]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

Are you trying to imply that excuses his play?

 

What do you think?  The OL couldn't block to save their lives that last quarter.

 

[Big Turk]

The problem is described in more detail in this thread:

 

And this thread:

 

Basically the Bills are the worst team in the NFL in converting drives into opponent territory into points. They were worst in the NFL with 26 drives that ended on the opponent side of the field outside the 35 yard line that resulted in not even a FG attempt. This has gotta change if they want to improve their points per game on offense. Can't have drives consistently stall out there.

[SCBills]

10 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

we gave up 2 touchdowns in 3 quarters after half time. This wasn’t an epic defensive collapse. It was an above average game from the unit. They shouldn’t have to be historically good at all times.

We actually gave up 3 straight scores. (One off a short field).   The two TD drives were both long, methodical drives that were both capped by 2 point conversions.  
 

We have up a 3rd and 18 in do or die OT.  
 

The Texans were missing the 3rd top weapon after Watson/Hopkins.  
 

I don’t believe today is the day to make excuses for a defense that is heavily weighted in coaching, resources and talent on this roster.  

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

It is not as simple as the OP states. When he says great coaching gets us the 1 point wins or gets us to where we are. I see it as McD and his philosophy make the team competitive and give them a chance in most games. That means 8-8, plus or minus a game or two based on fortune, good or bad. He has proven to be that level of coach. But,  let's not lie to ourselves, the approach keeps the games close, but it's not going to beat playoff caliber teams very often. We just aren't aggressive on offense or defense and put people away. We start our run, run, pass or run,run, run and playing soft coverages and giving them yards. The approach absolutely needs to change and hopefully it will with better talent in some areas. 

Edited January 5, 2020 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[Mark Vader]

48 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

I think you might be missing the point though.  The reason they didn’t go for the kill is because they don’t have a QB that has shown the ability to pull this off.  Allen melted down last night and even if they went for the kill, I don’t think anything changes

But scoring less that 20 points a game loses games which is what Allen has consistently done alL season long.  Right now, he isn’t good enough to score more than 17 points a game

If that were the case, then they wouldn't have been pulling out all the stops like they did on the opening drive.

 

Then we get them settling for a field goal at halftime instead of going for the touchdown.

 

To me that shows lack of killer instinct by McDermott, not Josh Allen.

[Meatloaf63]

45 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

I think you might be missing the point though.  The reason they didn’t go for the kill is because they don’t have a QB that has shown the ability to pull this off.  Allen melted down last night and even if they went for the kill, I don’t think anything changes

But scoring less that 20 points a game loses games which is what Allen has consistently done alL season long.  Right now, he isn’t good enough to score more than 17 points a game

bull####, Allen has shown the ability when the O C trusts him to get it done and the offensive line actually gives him the time to get it done. But terrible execution or poor play calling inside the 30 often leads to 3rd and long where the line can’t handle the blitz and the receivers get zero separation. He threw  two dimes one to brown and one to Williams that were both dropped and cost us 8 points. We abandoned the running game in overtime for only god knows why. This is just drivel from another Josh Allen hater with little understanding of the nuances of the game...

[Mark Vader]

37 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Maybe.... but I do think that Josh’s limitations really influence the playcalling 

I saw no limitations on that opening drive.

 

Was that all a fluke?

[John in Jax]

14 minutes ago, SunDSolar said:

This offense is way to conservative and this lacks the boot to throat mentality that winning playoff teams must have.

 

Just look at the play call with 32 seconds left in the half.   You come out of a timeout and call a run play.  What the ***** was that about.  This gave us only one shot at the endzone, instead of what should have been multiple tries at it.   

 

Of course the very next play Josh Allen took that one shot, made an absolutely perfect throw, put it on Duke Williams and he dropped it.  

 

This run call was the beginning of the end for this team in this game.  

 

 

Yep, you're 100% spot on. And that conservatism/idiocy is on McDummy, and no one else.

[Phil The Thrill]

1 minute ago, Meatloaf63 said:

bull####, Allen has shown the ability when the O C trusts him to get it done and the offensive line actually gives him the time to get it done. But terrible execution or poor play calling inside the 30 often leads to 3rd and long where the line can’t handle the blitz and the receivers get zero separation. He threw  two dimes one to brown and one to Williams that were both dropped and cost us 8 points. We abandoned the running game in overtime for only god knows why. This is just drivel from another Josh Allen hater with little understanding of the nuances of the game...

Or someone that is calling Josh Allen’s second half what it was - an absolute meltdown.  He played poorly

Just now, John in Jax said:

Yep, you're 100% spot on. And that conservatism/idiocy is on McDummy, and no one else.

more excuses for Allen

[Doc]

Just now, Phil The Thrill said:

Or someone that is calling Josh Allen’s second half what it was - an absolute meltdown.  He played poorly

 

Yeah and the rest of the offense and defense played great.

[goldenboy81]

I was really happy with the season til yesterday. 

The players didn't screw this game up,the coaches did.

 

Leaving tre on an island with Hopkins so you could repeatedly blitz Hyde was the dumbest thing to do 2nd half

 

They run when they shouldn't and throw when they should run..

 

It sucks that the coaches had their worst 2nd half adjustments yesterday,and that is a problem that needs to be fixed asap