The Bills Formula For Winning in 2019 Was Never Sustainable For Playoffs

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

After a big loss like last night, fans are obviously going to be pointing fingers.  Everyone has one unit or person to blame, and the truth it’s never just a player, a coach, or an official.  It’s usually a combination of all.  We can blame whoever we want (personally I think Allen melted down in the second half) but that’s what happened last night - a total team loss.  (....)

It would be foolish and shortsighted to think that this is how McDermott wants to win.  I think that given how bad the offense has been, he knows that this is the Bills best chance to win, which likely explains some of the play calls.  They just don’t have an offense that can score more than 17 points, and again, I think QB play is a huge reason for this.  (....)

Why does this happen?  It’s largely a mix between execution and playcalling.  Again, I’m going to be accused of being a “hater” or a “crusader” as it’s called in here - but I think the biggest reason why has to do with Josh Allen not having the ability (yet?) to show that he can consistently finish drives with TD’s in moments when they need him to, like Watson did last night.  While it isn’t all on Josh, his teammates have let him down too and you can argue some of the play calls haven’t put them in a good position. 

 

Decent posts with good points and you're entitled to your opinion.  I like the "preemptive strike" though.  "Again, I’m going to be accused of being a “hater” or a “crusader” as it’s called in here - but I think the biggest reason why has to do with Josh Allen not having the ability (yet?) to show that he can consistently finish drives with TD’s in moments when they need him to, like Watson did last night."

 

As you point out, it isn't all on Josh, teammates have let him down and play calls haven't put them in good position on other occasions.  If the offense is bad, it isn't all on Josh.

 

Riddle me this: your hypothesis is that the Bills have gone all conservative on offense and run run run once they get a lead because Josh Allen isn't good enough to score more.  But then when they need a comeback, they set him free and most of the time this season (the exception being the Iggles game) he either comes through or brings them close.

 

Isn't there a bit of a paradox there?  You think it's all on Allen and the coaches are trying to hide him - except when they really need him for a comeback, then they put it all on his shoulders and most of the  time this season, he's either come through or come close.

The Bills had 425 yards of offense yesterday (using net passing).  Josh Allen was responsible for 361 of them passing running and receiving.  For math lovers, that's 85%  of yesterday's offense.

 

1 hour ago, Phil The Thrill said:

I think you might be missing the point though.  The reason they didn’t go for the kill is because they don’t have a QB that has shown the ability to pull this off.  Allen melted down last night and even if they went for the kill, I don’t think anything changes

But scoring less that 20 points a game loses games which is what Allen has consistently done alL season long.  Right now, he isn’t good enough to score more than 17 points a game

 

Phil, the difference between a discussion and a crusade is that in a discussion, people accept that others have different points of view and bring up new lines of argument and evidence in their rebuttal.  Crusaders tell people with a different point of view that they're wrong, and reiterate their beliefs over.  and over.  and over again.

 

If you're told you're doing something, perhaps you should look into the reasons, and not just "cry before you're hurt" then show the basis for the claim.

 

 

[NoSaint]

21 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea.... the skills position leaves a lot to be desired though..... and I just don't trust the regimes judgment offensively.

 

The offense has been mostly bad since McBeane arrived.... not sure it ever becomes a good unit under these guys. McDermott seems clueless on how to assemble it.

im not arguing it’s good, but also that it only goes so far to argue they haven’t tried to upgrade it either. It needs more pieces but the investment isn’t neglectful. Which ties back to the question on whether it happens. 
 

I think they over invest this year and it spikes a bit but we will see. And that doesn’t speak to whether they can get more talent out of less resources once the roster matures out of rookie deals for so many key spots. 

[Phil The Thrill]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Decent posts with good points and you're entitled to your opinion.  I like the "preemptive strike" though.  "Again, I’m going to be accused of being a “hater” or a “crusader” as it’s called in here - but I think the biggest reason why has to do with Josh Allen not having the ability (yet?) to show that he can consistently finish drives with TD’s in moments when they need him to, like Watson did last night."

 

As you point out, it isn't all on Josh, teammates have let him down and play calls haven't put them in good position on other occasions.  If the offense is bad, it isn't all on Josh.

 

Riddle me this: your hypothesis is that the Bills have gone all conservative on offense and run run run once they get a lead because Josh Allen isn't good enough to score more.  But then when they need a comeback, they set him free and most of the time this season (the exception being the Iggles game) he either comes through or brings them close.

 

Isn't there a bit of a paradox there?  You think it's all on Allen and the coaches are trying to hide him - except when they really need him for a comeback, then they put it all on his shoulders and most of the  time this season, he's either come through or come close.

The Bills had 425 yards of offense yesterday (using net passing).  Josh Allen was responsible for 361 of them passing running and receiving.  For math lovers, that's 85%  of yesterday's offense.

 

 

Phil, the difference between a discussion and a crusade is that in a discussion, people accept that others have different points of view and bring up new lines of argument and evidence in their rebuttal.  Crusaders tell people with a different point of view that they're wrong, and reiterate their beliefs over.  and over.  and over again.

 

If you're told you're doing something, perhaps you should look into the reasons, and not just "cry before you're hurt" then show the reasons.

 

 

To your point, Yes I do believe coaches are trying to hide him.  The reason they “put it on his shoulders” ’is because they have no other choice to and the game situation dictates that.   This goes back to formula for winning.  They don’t want it to get to the point where Allen has to win the game, and I think this dictated some of the decisions that fans are calling conservative.  

 

But I also think earlier in the 3rd quarter they could have called better plays and gotten Singletary more involved and not used Gore.  
 

Where your argument falls apart is that Josh hasn’t been able to keep up with teams that score 17 points or more.  It happened in Cleveland, Baltimore, NE and now today.   He has not come through and while he does deserve credit for fighting to get they last second FG in regulation, you can argue it never should have gotten to that point.   On the previous possession Josh lost over 30 yards and it took a solid defensive stand on 4th down to get the football back.  

Again this is just my opinion, but after the game last night, I think it’s fair to question of Josh can actually turn the corner and become a better QB going into 2020.  

 

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Phil The Thrill said:

I think you might be missing the point though.  The reason they didn’t go for the kill is because they don’t have a QB that has shown the ability to pull this off.  Allen melted down last night and even if they went for the kill, I don’t think anything changes

But scoring less that 20 points a game loses games which is what Allen has consistently done alL season long.  Right now, he isn’t good enough to score more than 17 points a game

 Look at the games yesterday.  And Allen would have had your magical number if a couple guys catch passes they should have caught.

 

He made some great plays yesterday and a few boneheaded plays.  He’s a second year guy that showed a lot of progress this season.  Including getting them the tying FG in regulation with just over a minute and no time outs.  He needs to continue improving but trying to say he was the sole cause of this loss is ridiculous.

[billsfan1959]

21 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

There were a bunch of discussions about how the Bills offense was the reason we were winning games and the defense wasn't carrying us at all. Prior to yesterday ofc.

 

This is patently untrue at worst and grossly exaggerated at best.

 

24 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Just another game we got carried by our offense, like we did all year.

 

You have been a strong critic of Allen and you are doing nothing more with this post than to say, "See how right I was?" and gloating after a loss. If what you need at this moment is to pat yourself on the back, have at it. It feels a bit unnecessary; however, it is your right.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

we gave up 2 touchdowns in 3 quarters after half time. This wasn’t an epic defensive collapse. It was an above average game from the unit. They shouldn’t have to be historically good at all times.

 

When you hold a team to less than 100 yds offense in the first half, then allow 275 in the 2nd half and OT, I would call that a defensive collapse.  Whether it's epic or not I leave to the reader.  Likewise, when you limit a team to 8 minutes TOP in the first half then allow them 28:20 in the 2nd half an OT.  That's a defensive collapse.  The defense is not responsible for the crap position they were placed in by Allen's fumble and did well to hold them to 3 points.  Other than that...

 

"Dance with what brung ya".  When more resources have been put into the D and the coach's formula for winning is "Shut-down D plus good enough O" then you need to dance.

[Maine-iac]

Everybody lauding Singletary.  He is a great runner and reciever but I definately saw him miss some blocks in pass protection and that is probably why Gore was in there.  As far as the formula for winning, the victory was there for the taking, we just didn't finish.

[Green Lightning]

1 hour ago, Heitz said:

Lotta truths in this thread.  Bottom line for me, is that we need more talent on the O, stat.

Abree. This should be job one.

[BuffaloFan68]

1 hour ago, zow2 said:

It struck me last night how our season ended just like it began in the Jets game...but in reverse. This time we blew the 16-0 lead.  
 

Houston made halftime adjustments.  Watson started getting the ball out quickly.  Our D wilted late.  Allen needs to do better. In Buffalo we think he’s going to be great. I read other fan sites around the USA and they think Allen is a mess and somewhere between Mariota and Trubisky on the scale of QBs.  He has raise his level of accuracy going forward and learn to throw passes with more of an arc instead of always so flat. That’s my opinion.

Quick passes are the Achilles heal of our D & unfortunately our O doesn’t have a decent quick-pass game. Josh has GOT to learn to fire that ball out a lot quicker - he seems like a mobile version of Bledsoe 

[DuckyBoys]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Singletary was our leading WR in a playoff game.  
 

Brown had a nice season, and Beasley is a good slot, but we desperately need WR help.   Hopkins came alive, on Tre White of all people, when it mattered.  Presenting a big target to Watson, with separation.   Obviously we can’t just go out and get a Hopkins, but Brown and Beasley ain’t it.  They’re nice complementary pieces, but tell me why Duke, in his first playoff game, looked like our best WR option?   ....because he was.  ....and he's not the answer.  I’d keep him on the roster, but give me two big WRs in the offseason.   I’m sick of this smurf garbage. 

 

Agreed in 2018 they gave Josh Allen a 1977 AMC Pacer with a blown headgasket to work with  In 2019 he got 2005 Camry with bald tires.  Troubling to me is how we continued to surround Josh with a over the hill 36 yr old rb, plus a bunch of special teams guys in key moments  Did my eyes deceive me or was Dimarco in more snaps in OT than Singeltary?  How was Duke inactive all those games.  Not saying he's Calvin Johnson but at minimum he was a viable 3rd target

[NoSaint]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

When you hold a team to less than 100 yds offense in the first half, then allow 275 in the 2nd half and OT, I would call that a defensive collapse.  Whether it's epic or not I leave to the reader.  Likewise, when you limit a team to 8 minutes TOP in the first half then allow them 28:20 in the 2nd half an OT.  That's a defensive collapse.  The defense is not responsible for the crap position they were placed in by Allen's fumble and did well to hold them to 3 points.  Other than that...

 

"Dance with what brung ya".  When more resources have been put into the D and the coach's formula for winning is "Shut-down D plus good enough O" then you need to dance.

In the “collapse” they allowed 22 points in 3 quarters which is about average play for this league (24 and change across 4 being average). They also had a HUGE stop to get us the ball and a chance to win at the end of regulation, in a position they shouldn’t have been put in. 
 

It’s definitely a step down from pitching a shutout the first half but if the need is to shut out good opponents there’s a problem.
 

they were not perfect but the step back from GREAT, to relatively average, shouldn’t be the focal point of the discussion about what went wrong when our only TD In 5 quarters came on a busted coverage on a trick play.

 

the defense missed a few steps in the dance but wasn’t bad overall. The long conversion is an ugly play to point but perfection isn’t the expectation.  The offense stepped on toes, fell a few times and soiled themselves in the end.

Edited January 5, 2020 by NoSaint

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

To your point, Yes I do believe coaches are trying to hide him.  The reason they “put it on his shoulders” ’is because they have no other choice to and the game situation dictates that.   This goes back to formula for winning.  They don’t want it to get to the point where Allen has to win the game, and I think this dictated some of the decisions that fans are calling conservative.  

 

So then you need to address the paradox that when they do "put it on his shoulders", he either comes through or comes very close.  He got us in position to tie the game and send it to OT.  He got it down to the last play against the Ravens and NE where arguably a better route and a jump ball receiver might win it.

 

If anything, that would argue that the "trying to hide him" (if that's what the coaches are doing) is mistaken. 

 

How many pass plays were called in the 2nd half?  How many rush plays?  How successful were the pass plays?  How successful were the rush plays? 

 

4 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Where your argument falls apart is that Josh hasn’t been able to keep up with teams that score 17 points or more.  It happened in Cleveland, Baltimore, NE and now today. 

 

You need to present an argument that it's Josh that's the issue here.  So far, you haven't.  It's just a repeated assertion.  "Josh hasn't been able to keep up with".  But then the paradoxical assertion that the coaches go all conservative and run run run because they're hiding Josh (who can't keep up, but doesn't get the chance, until he does then sometimes he can and sometimes he can't?) 

 

I can't keep up (with your line of reasoning)

 

4 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Again this is just my opinion, but after the game last night, I think it’s fair to question of Josh can actually turn the corner and become a better QB going into 2020. 

 

And you're entitled to your opinion, but if you're going to state it over and over again, it needs to have something more given behind it.  Allen generated something like 82% of our offense yesterday.  361 out of 425 yards.  He took a bad sack and a bad fumble.  He also had crap protection by our OL most of the day and WR who couldn't get their feet down or hang on to a ball.

 

He has improved in a number of measurable metrics through the season.  His fumbling is a problem he needs to address, and he needs to take another step with accuracy.  It's always been reasonable to question whether he'll turn the corner and become a better QB, because when a player has a problem, sometimes they fix it, and sometimes they don't.

 

But what exactly is there about last night that's such a revelation?

 

 

[jethro_tull]

2 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

After a big loss like last night, fans are obviously going to be pointing fingers.  Everyone has one unit or person to blame, and the truth it’s never just a player, a coach, or an official.  It’s usually a combination of all.  We can blame whoever we want (personally I think Allen melted down in the second half) but that’s what happened last night - a total team loss.  

 

But last night was also the perfect example

of how so many games played out this season - especially against good teams.   The formula for winning is based on the defenses ability to hold teams under 17-20 points.  This is a problem because in the playoffs you’ll be playing good offenses and this is unlikely.  
 

If the defense slips up a little and is unable to limit a team to under 17 points, the Bills usually lose.   Outside of Miami, the Bills have never won a game when the opponent have scored more than 17 points.  We’re not talking blowouts either.  The offense has not been good enough to score more than 20 points in almost every game this year.  It happened again last night.  
 

It would be foolish and shortsighted to think that this is how McDermott wants to win.  I think that given how bad the offense has been, he knows that this is the Bills best chance to win, which likely explains some of the play calls.  They just don’t have an offense that can score more than 17 points, and again, I think QB play is a huge reason for this.  

I also do think he deserves credit for winning 10 games with an underperforming offense.  The overall coaching job this year has been great. 

 

Take a look:

 

N.Y. Jets

W 17-16

N.Y. Giants

W 28-14

Cincinnati

W 21-17

New England

L 16-10

Tennessee

W 14-7

Miami

W 31-21

Philadelphia

L 31-13

Washington

W 24-9

Cleveland

L 19-16

Miami

W 37-20

Denver

W 20-3

Dallas

W 26-15

Baltimore

L 24-17

PittsburgH

W 17-10

New England

L 24-17

 

Why does this happen?  It’s largely a mix between execution and playcalling.  Again, I’m going to be accused of being a “hater” or a “crusader” as it’s called in here - but I think the biggest reason why has to do with Josh Allen not having the ability (yet?) to show that he can consistently finish drives with TD’s in moments when they need him to, like Watson did last night.  While it isn’t all on Josh, his teammates have let him down too and you can argue some of the play calls haven’t put them in a good position.  
 

For the Bills to get better, this will have to improve and the team should improve the offensive talent  in the offseason again.  
 

But 2020 will be a giant year.  All the usual suspects should be back next year - McDermott, Daboll, Allen, and there won’t be any excuses next year.  
 

It’s put up or shut up and the excuses of this being “a young team that is growing” is running out.  Onto 2020.

lack of execution and playcalling are the symptoms.  lack of experience and continuity are the cause.  8 new offensive starters.  They'll get there......

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Everybody lauding Singletary.  He is a great runner and reciever but I definately saw him miss some blocks in pass protection and that is probably why Gore was in there.  As far as the formula for winning, the victory was there for the taking, we just didn't finish.

 

Likewise I wondered what happened to Knox.  He's been one of Josh's main go-to's all season.  I think the same "blocking" point is the reason - they wanted Kroft, Smith, and Dimarco in there because they are better blockers, but then taking them out becomes a "tell".

[NoSaint]

20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

When you hold a team to less than 100 yds offense in the first half, then allow 275 in the 2nd half and OT, I would call that a defensive collapse.  Whether it's epic or not I leave to the reader.  Likewise, when you limit a team to 8 minutes TOP in the first half then allow them 28:20 in the 2nd half an OT.  That's a defensive collapse.  The defense is not responsible for the crap position they were placed in by Allen's fumble and did well to hold them to 3 points.  Other than that...

 

"Dance with what brung ya".  When more resources have been put into the D and the coach's formula for winning is "Shut-down D plus good enough O" then you need to dance.

And another reference 19 points in 4 quarters is 5+ points below league average

 

and that 375 normalized to 4 quarters equates to 300 yards in a game, only 5 teams averaged under 300 a game. Houston averaged 363 per game - so we were pretty spot on with an extra quarter 

Edited January 5, 2020 by NoSaint

[Hapless Bills Fan]

35 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

My point wasn’t those guys playing well enough, it’s that we can only hide the offense behind “not enough resources” so much. 
they have spent high picks and free agent dollars there. Not as much but it’s not a neglected wasteland that shouldn’t have expectations attached to them. 

 

Actually, your point is one of the more worrisome points.  They actually have spent resources on offense - Zay Jones in the 2nd, trade 3rd for Kelvin Benjamin, picking up Corey Coleman's $3.5M salary for a week on the roster.  They've used 6 of their 1st 3 round picks on offense in the last 3 years, more if you count the package that went into Allen.  They picked up a bunch of OLmen this off season.

 

The problem is what they've gotten for it.  Singletary is good, but for some reason they don't use him like a bell-cow and they get away from him easily.  Knox may develop, but his blocking isn't "all that" and he needs to fix the dropsies.  Kroft has been injured then invisible.  Smith has been a penalty machine.  I don't think anyone is sold on Ford as a RT, and Dawkins isn't all-world. 

 

Is it that they're trying to go too cheap - 2nd and 3rd round picks at OL when we need to expend more serious resources?  Is the player personnel lacking?  What?

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

One thing I’ll remember from the year is that other than the odd game against the Eagles, the Bills never lost by more than a single score, including yesterday. That’s pretty remarkable over a long season.

Especially considering all the talk last year about how McD consistently gets blown out.....not taking into consideration we the worst wrs in the league and bottom 2-3 offensive lines + starting an extremely raw rookie QB

[NoSaint]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Actually, your point is one of the more worrisome points.  They actually have spent resources on offense - Zay Jones in the 2nd, trade 3rd for Kelvin Benjamin, picking up Corey Coleman's $3.5M salary for a week on the roster.  They've used 6 of their 1st 3 round picks on offense in the last 3 years, more if you count the package that went into Allen.  They picked up a bunch of OLmen this off season.

 

The problem is what they've gotten for it.  Singletary is good, but for some reason they don't use him like a bell-cow and they get away from him easily.  Knox may develop, but his blocking isn't "all that" and he needs to fix the dropsies.  Kroft has been injured then invisible.  Smith has been a penalty machine.  I don't think anyone is sold on Ford as a RT, and Dawkins isn't all-world. 

 

Is it that they're trying to go too cheap - 2nd and 3rd round picks at OL when we need to expend more serious resources?  Is the player personnel lacking?  What?

not sure but I think we’ve too quickly said not enough resources and outside of WR1, it’s absolutely not the story.

 

our TE room is a great example with a FA getting average starter money, smith getting elite te2 money and a 3rd round pick. by definition we’d be above average investment at the position and... well... it’s not a strength. 

Edited January 5, 2020 by NoSaint

[Maine-iac]

Smith and Gore are "reliable".  There are a number of plays where no one was blocked.  I want to know who's causing that.  Is Allen not responsible for spotting that?  If not Allen then who on the OL is not spotting that?  Why are people running completely unblocked into the backfield as much as they are.  The number of plays (running and passing) that blockers completely fail to block anyone is alarming.  Granted outside of Morse and Dawkins I'm not sure we have an OL player I'd pencil in as the starter for next season right now.  I'm no OL coach but many had Ford projecting as a guard and he was fairly well regarded when drafted but I'm going to say I sure hope we draft a tackle early next year.

11 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

And another reference 19 points in 4 quarters is 5+ points below league average

 

and that 375 normalized to 4 quarters equates to 300 yards in a game, only 5 teams averaged under 300 a game. Houston averaged 363 per game - so we were pretty spot on with an extra quarter 

People are going to break it down with stats both on offense and defense.  Truth is we could have won.  One or two plays on offense or defense and we could have won.  That is what the Pats had (I love saying it in past tense).  The killer instinct to take the victory.  If you didn't absolutely put your foot on their throat they'd find a way to win.  It was there, we just didn't take it.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, apuszczalowski said:

You want to use the oline as an excuse yet they were just beat by a team with one thats worse and doesn't need to use it as an excuse

 

Look, Josh had over 370 yards of offense in this game.  He wasn't perfect but he got the Bills to OT and didn't throw the "blindside block" to knock them out of FG range or give up the first down on 3rd and 18.  Never mind the nullifying the TD on the return, the horrible officiating on the blindside block or lack of calls on Watt for RTP of that Texans defender for the helmet to helmet hit on that final drive.