The Bills Formula For Winning in 2019 Was Never Sustainable For Playoffs

[Phil The Thrill]

After a big loss like last night, fans are obviously going to be pointing fingers.  Everyone has one unit or person to blame, and the truth it’s never just a player, a coach, or an official.  It’s usually a combination of all.  We can blame whoever we want (personally I think Allen melted down in the second half) but that’s what happened last night - a total team loss.  

 

But last night was also the perfect example

of how so many games played out this season - especially against good teams.   The formula for winning is based on the defenses ability to hold teams under 17-20 points.  This is a problem because in the playoffs you’ll be playing good offenses and this is unlikely.  
 

If the defense slips up a little and is unable to limit a team to under 17 points, the Bills usually lose.   Outside of Miami, the Bills have never won a game when the opponent have scored more than 17 points.  We’re not talking blowouts either.  The offense has not been good enough to score more than 20 points in almost every game this year.  It happened again last night.  
 

It would be foolish and shortsighted to think that this is how McDermott wants to win.  I think that given how bad the offense has been, he knows that this is the Bills best chance to win, which likely explains some of the play calls.  They just don’t have an offense that can score more than 17 points, and again, I think QB play is a huge reason for this.  

I also do think he deserves credit for winning 10 games with an underperforming offense.  The overall coaching job this year has been great. 

 

Take a look:

 

N.Y. Jets

W 17-16

N.Y. Giants

W 28-14

Cincinnati

W 21-17

New England

L 16-10

Tennessee

W 14-7

Miami

W 31-21

Philadelphia

L 31-13

Washington

W 24-9

Cleveland

L 19-16

Miami

W 37-20

Denver

W 20-3

Dallas

W 26-15

Baltimore

L 24-17

PittsburgH

W 17-10

New England

L 24-17

 

Why does this happen?  It’s largely a mix between execution and playcalling.  Again, I’m going to be accused of being a “hater” or a “crusader” as it’s called in here - but I think the biggest reason why has to do with Josh Allen not having the ability (yet?) to show that he can consistently finish drives with TD’s in moments when they need him to, like Watson did last night.  While it isn’t all on Josh, his teammates have let him down too and you can argue some of the play calls haven’t put them in a good position.  
 

For the Bills to get better, this will have to improve and the team should improve the offensive talent  in the offseason again.  
 

But 2020 will be a giant year.  All the usual suspects should be back next year - McDermott, Daboll, Allen, and there won’t be any excuses next year.  
 

It’s put up or shut up and the excuses of this being “a young team that is growing” is running out.  Onto 2020.

Edited January 5, 2020 by Phil The Thrill

[SoCal Deek]

One thing I’ll remember from the year is that other than the odd game against the Eagles, the Bills never lost by more than a single score, including yesterday. That’s pretty remarkable over a long season.

[Phil The Thrill]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

One thing I’ll remember from the year is that other than the odd game against the Eagles, the Bills never lost by more than a single score, including yesterday. That’s pretty remarkable over a long season.

 

It’s a testament for having a great defense and an offense that doesn’t score enough points.  But it’s also a sign of good coaching IMO

[SCBills]

Allen and Singletary were our entire offense.   
 

A second year QB and a rookie RB.  
 

Josh had 264 yards passing, 92 yards rushing and a TD reception.  
 

Singletary was our leading RECEIVER.  (Huh?)

 

We desperately need some upgrades on Offense, and these stats, in a playoff game, could not be more eye opening.  
 

You are correct in how the game was coached.  Get up 2 scores, then limit mistakes and hope the defense holds.  Not going for the jugular haunted them, and they better have learned their lesson.   I do think, with improved talent, next year they will. 
 

 

Edited January 5, 2020 by SCBills

[oldmanfan]

Defense and running the ball wins playoff games.  In the second half our D let down and we quit letting Motor and Allen run.

[Phil The Thrill]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Allen and Singletary were our entire offense.   
 

A second year QB and a rookie RB.  
 

Josh had 264 yards passing, 92 yards rushing and a TD reception.  
 

Singletary was our leading RECEIVER.  (Huh?)

 

We desperately need some upgrades on Offense, and these stats, in a playoff game, could not be more eye opening.  
 

You are correct in how the game was coached.  Get up 2 scores, then limit mistakes and hope the defense holds.  Not going for the jugular haunted them, and they better have learned their lesson. 

I think you might be missing the point though.  The reason they didn’t go for the kill is because they don’t have a QB that has shown the ability to pull this off.  Allen melted down last night and even if they went for the kill, I don’t think anything changes

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Defense and running the ball wins playoff games.  In the second half our D let down and we quit letting Motor and Allen run.

But scoring less that 20 points a game loses games which is what Allen has consistently done alL season long.  Right now, he isn’t good enough to score more than 17 points a game

Edited January 5, 2020 by Phil The Thrill

[dayman]

It is both true that the offense needs upgrading and that Allen is a prime reason we don't score. 

 

Allen did meltdown last night in the second half, did fail to finish drives with TDs in the first half, and is to blame for us not putting points up. 

 

 

[Doc]

And yet...there the Bills were driving for what could have been the winning FG in OT only to have the refs decide the outcome on their final drive.

 

Edit: let me add that I didn't think the Bills would have made it far in the playoffs because of the offense.  But they should have won that game at least.

Edited January 5, 2020 by Doc

[SCBills]

13 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

I think you might be missing the point though.  The reason they didn’t go for the kill is because they don’t have a QB that has shown the ability to pull this off.  Allen melted down last night and even if they went for the kill, I don’t think anything changes

But scoring less that 20 points a game loses games which is what Allen has consistently done alL season long.  Right now, he isn’t good enough to score more than 17 points a game

I think it’s 50/50.   We probably score a TD if Allen gets the ball out quicker to Brown on the sideline out at the 4.   He doesn’t.  Brown only gets one foot in.  We kick a FG.  
 

However, running on 2nd and 10 out of a heavy set, for one yard, does not put Allen and the Offense in a good position to continually have to convert 3rd and longs. 
 

Lots of blame to go around, but Allen was dealing in that first half, and after the first drive, we went conservative as soon as we knew we had 3 points on the board.   The Gore run prior to the half was unforgivable.   Instead of having multiple chances at a TD, we gave ourselves one, on a low percentage throw from 25 yards out.  Repeat that thought process all game, all season really... 
 

 

Edited January 5, 2020 by SCBills

[Heitz]

Lotta truths in this thread.  Bottom line for me, is that we need more talent on the O, stat.

[Phil The Thrill]

Just now, SCBills said:

I think it’s 50/50.   We probably score a TD if Allen gets the ball out quicker to Brown on the sideline out at the 4.   He doesn’t.  Brown only gets one foot in.  We kick a FG.  
 

However, running on 2nd and 10 out of a heavy set, for one yard, does not put Allen and the Offense in a good position to continually have to convert 3rd and longs. 
 

Lots of blame to go around, but Allen was dealing in that first half, and after the first drive, we went conservative as soon as we knew we had 3 points on the board.   The Gore run prior to the half was unforgivable.  

Maybe.... but I do think that Josh’s limitations really influence the playcalling 

[NoSaint]

23 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Allen and Singletary were our entire offense.   
 

A second year QB and a rookie RB.  
 

Josh had 264 yards passing, 92 yards rushing and a TD reception.  
 

Singletary was our leading RECEIVER.  (Huh?)

 

We desperately need some upgrades on Offense, and these stats, in a playoff game, could not be more eye opening.  
 

You are correct in how the game was coached.  Get up 2 scores, then limit mistakes and hope the defense holds.  Not going for the jugular haunted them, and they better have learned their lesson.   I do think, with improved talent, next year they will. 
 

 

plenty of us have been getting hammered for saying you need stars to win in this league for the duration of this regime. 
 

tre is a star on D and made a huge play. We need that guy that can get after the qb reliably in the biggest moment, the pass catcher, and hopefully Allen. 
 

we just burned one of our easiest opportunities to pair those stars with a great supporting cast. 

Edited January 5, 2020 by NoSaint

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

3 Seasons

McDermott Offense averages 18.5 points per game.

 

Tyrod Taylor, Nate Peterman, Matt Barkley, Josh Allen, the other guys...

 

Doesn’t matter who, usually ends up being the same outcome... 1-2 Touchdowns 1-2 Field Goals per game.  And hope the defense holds.

 

one constant?  Coach McDermott and his philosophy.

 

So...

[SCBills]

6 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

plenty of us have been getting hammered for saying you need stars to win in this league for the duration of this regime. 
 

tre is a star on D and made a huge play. We need that guy that can get after the qb reliably in the biggest movement, the pass catcher, and hopefully Allen. 

Yup.  In the end, it was Watson/Hopkins/Watt vs Allen/Singletary/Tre.  
 

I thought we would win the game, even with their star power being stronger and more experienced, but like McDermott... I didn’t realize our “elite” defense would fold against a Texans team missing their 3rd  best weapon on Offense. 
 

Star Power beat Conventional Wisdom.  
 

Big time learning moment. 
 

Edited January 5, 2020 by SCBills

[CEN-CAL17]

Plain and simple this team needs a top 15 offense minimum to be able to compete for a title.... avg 17-18 pts a game offense won’t cut it....

 

to ask a defense to not give up more than 2 TDs vs these top NFL teams is never gonna work.

 

If this offense can turn things around next year this team may be in the talks for a title. The Bills  offense needs to be around 24-25 pts average. Josh needs to be around a 62-65% completions avg... Bills need a legit RB2 (Jordan Howard FA), and another WR....

 

Fan think this WR Corp needs a round 1 guy, I don’t. Brown, Beasley, Duke, McKenzie, Foster, Knox is a great start to work with.... if we can get a another solid vet, or if Beane can find a steal in round 3 we are good.

 

Bills need a RT, LB and DE.... meaning keep building on the trenches and Defense front 7!!!!!!

[Phil The Thrill]

7 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

3 Seasons

McDermott Offense averages 18.5 points per game.

 

Tyrod Taylor, Nate Peterman, Matt Barkley, Josh Allen, the other guys...

 

Doesn’t matter who, usually ends up being the same outcome... 1-2 Touchdowns 1-2 Field Goals per game.  And hope the defense holds.

 

one constant?  Coach McDermott and his philosophy.

 

So...

Isn’t the other constant that all 3 are not franchise QB’s?  Allen has a pass for being young

 

I also think you have to consider the talent.  The teams in 2017 and 2018 were terrible outside of Shady.

 

In 2019, the Bills hade Allen, Dawkins, and 10 new starters.  We’ll see what happens next year.  Like I said - no excuses

Edited January 5, 2020 by Phil The Thrill

[zow2]

It struck me last night how our season ended just like it began in the Jets game...but in reverse. This time we blew the 16-0 lead.  
 

Houston made halftime adjustments.  Watson started getting the ball out quickly.  Our D wilted late.  Allen needs to do better. In Buffalo we think he’s going to be great. I read other fan sites around the USA and they think Allen is a mess and somewhere between Mariota and Trubisky on the scale of QBs.  He has raise his level of accuracy going forward and learn to throw passes with more of an arc instead of always so flat. That’s my opinion.

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, CEN-CAL17 said:

Plain and simple this team needs a top 15 offense minimum to be able to compete for a title.... avg 17-18 pts a game offense won’t cut it....

 

to ask a defense to not give up more than 2 TDs vs these top NFL teams is never gonna work.

 

If this offense can turn things around next year this team may be in the talks for a title. The Bills  offense needs to be around 24-25 pts average. Josh needs to be around a 62-65% completions avg... Bills need a legit RB2 (Jordan Howard FA), and another WR....

 

Fan think this WR Corp needs a round 1 guy, I don’t. Brown, Beasley, Duke, McKenzie, Foster, Knox is a great start to work with.... if we can get a another solid vet, or if Beane can find a steal in round 3 we are good.

 

Bills need a RT, LB and DE.... meaning keep building on the trenches and Defense front 7!!!!!!

Singletary was our leading WR in a playoff game.  
 

Brown had a nice season, and Beasley is a good slot, but we desperately need WR help.   Hopkins came alive, on Tre White of all people, when it mattered.  Presenting a big target to Watson, with separation.   Obviously we can’t just go out and get a Hopkins, but Brown and Beasley ain’t it.  They’re nice complementary pieces, but tell me why Duke, in his first playoff game, looked like our best WR option?   ....because he was.  ....and he's not the answer.  I’d keep him on the roster, but give me two big WRs in the offseason.   I’m sick of this smurf garbage. 

Edited January 5, 2020 by SCBills

[BillsFanSD]

Let's remember that we just finished Year 2 of a complete team rebuild.  Our offense in particular only returned two starters.  Several of the new additions were guys who we were able to pick up for cheap as stop-gaps. This isn't a finished product.

[NoSaint]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Yup.  In the end, it was Watson/Hopkins/Watt vs Allen/Singletary/Tre.  
 

I thought we would win the game, even with their star power being stronger and more experienced, but like McDermott... I didn’t realize our “elite” defense would fold against a Texans team missing their 3rd  best weapon on Offense. 
 

Star Power beat Conventional Wisdom.  
 

Big time learning moment. 
 

conventional wisdom IS that you get the stars AND depth right now. Pretty much every team with a young qb does it for a reason. 
 

for some reason a lot of our base prefers we remain modest and scrappy instead.