Buffalo Bills & Drops

[Billsfan1972]

9 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

So you don’t think Mahomes is a better, more accurate passer than Allen?  It’s not a confidence that both of those players had the best seasons of their careers with Mahomes.  The problem with some fans and I believe the coaching staff is they try to make Allen into something he’s not.  He is never going to be a Brady pinpoint passer.  But he can still be really successful if you tailor the offense to him like Baltimore does with Jackson. Obviously, there’s risk but imo our offense should look more like Baltimore than prime NE. 

Again missing the point.  Never fails.

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

Again missing the point.  Never fails.

Yup. That some people will never admit that Allen struggles with accuracy. I’ll step out of the thread because I dare have a critical point on Allen. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

5 hours ago, HOUSE said:

It's been windy

 

...Lester Hates Time.......

 

[Billsfan1972]

7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yup. That some people will never admit that Allen struggles with accuracy. I’ll step out of the thread because I dare have a critical point on Allen. 

That was not the point of the thread.  I didn't mention Allen in any of the posts until you showed up....

[HappyDays]

16 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

And I believe a big part of the problem with drops is Allen with sometimes lack of touch.  It also shows up on YAC with balls the receivers can’t catch in stride.  Brady has a rag arm now but he puts the ball where guys can catch and run.  
 

It’s a problem with guys with big arms.  Hard to just turn it down.  Losman had a missile but couldn’t calm it down enough.  I think Allen is better but he’s more of the problem with drops than you are willing to say. 

 

This is complete nonsense. Allen's accuracy and touch has nothing to do with receivers dropping balls that hit them in the hands. Kelvin Benjamin didn't go to Kansas City and suddenly learn to catch the ball. Zay Jones didn't go to Oakland and become a starting caliber receiver. John Brown seems to catch Allen's passes just fine. Knox, less so. Cole Beasley can catch the ball in the flat but send him more than 20 yards down field and it's a toss up. Drop percentage as measured by the NFL is extremely favorable towards the receivers. There are several times I have seen a receiver drop the ball but the NFL didn't consider it a drop because a defender was in the vicinity or the pass was a little high or whatever. If you think our official drop percentage is influenced by Allen's throws you don't understand how they measure it.

21 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I’ll step out of the thread because I dare have a critical point on Allen. 

 

Is this really what you think? This is a thread about receivers dropping passes that hit them in the hands in uncontested situations and you come in talking about Allen's accuracy and touch. Brown and Beasley have been #2 or #3 receivers for their entire career. Knox and Singletary are rookies that didn't catch the ball much in college. Don't you think maybe the players dropping the passes are at fault at all?

[Billsfan1972]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is complete nonsense. Allen's accuracy and touch has nothing to do with receivers dropping balls that hit them in the hands. Kelvin Benjamin didn't go to Kansas City and suddenly learn to catch the ball. Zay Jones didn't go to Oakland and become a starting caliber receiver. John Brown seems to catch Allen's passes just fine. Knox, less so. Cole Beasley can catch the ball in the flat but send him more than 20 yards down field and it's a toss up. Drop percentage as measured by the NFL is extremely favorable towards the receivers. There are several times I have seen a receiver drop the ball but the NFL didn't consider it a drop because a defender was in the vicinity or the pass was a little high or whatever. If you think our official drop percentage is influenced by Allen's throws you don't understand how they measure it.

 

Is this really what you think? This is a thread about receivers dropping passes that hit them in the hands in uncontested situations and you come in talking about Allen's accuracy and touch. Brown and Beasley have been #2 or #3 receivers for their entire career. Knox and Singletary are rookies that didn't catch the ball much in college. Don't you think maybe the players dropping the passes are at fault at all?

No.... It's always Allen throwing too hard or not accurately.......?

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

And I believe a big part of the problem with drops is Allen with sometimes lack of touch.  It also shows up on YAC with balls the receivers can’t catch in stride.  Brady has a rag arm now but he puts the ball where guys can catch and run.  
 

It’s a problem with guys with big arms.  Hard to just turn it down.  Losman had a missile but couldn’t calm it down enough.  I think Allen is better but he’s more of the problem with drops than you are willing to say. 

Travis Kelce does this-

 

Dawson Knox does this- 

 

Tyreek Hill does this-

 

Cole Beasley does this-

 

Bonus of Singletary doing this-

 

and this

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

49 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

No what I said is I've deemed a LOT MORE BALLS AS DROPS, then the official stats.  To be a drop it pretty much needs to be a feather pass where the receiver is wide open, doesn't have to extend, leave their feet or anticipate a hit.  Vs. Baltimore the only two deemed drops were SIngletary & Knox were were VERY EASY CATCHES....

No Bills fans want to compare themselves to the worst & this is why we have the 300 yard arguments & such about the offense.  Forget being top 5 (or 10), three years @ the very bottom of passing stats (2016-2018) didn't phase some here......

I agree with your sentiment re: drops and what is officially deemed as such. The Bills WRs and TEs May not “ drop” more passes than the average team by a whole lot. What that doesn’t account for is the many, many passes caught by other teams players that were far from perfect throws. The Bills pass catchers rarely make these types of grabs, and others make them pretty routinely. If you watch a lot of NFL games, the Bills passing game seems lacking and depends on perfect throws to make plays. 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So drops are a bit subjective.  Someone is looking at the ball and deciding whether or not it's catchable with "reasonable effort". 

"Completable balls" is another subjective judgement.

 

Myself, I like to keep things as objective as possible and look at relative drop rates, since all teams have their share of throw-aways and misfires.

 

I hear you that they are subjective to all of us.  However, stats sites define what a drop is and that is applied to everyone.  It isn't as subjective as you think it is and it essentially more so favors the receiver by a country mile.  Here is what ESPN says about their drop statistic...

 

Quote

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Good question in the comments section from Los Angeles Rams of St. Louis regarding dropped passes: What constitutes one, exactly?

2011 Drops Through Week 3

Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information passed along the written standard our game charters rely upon to reduce subjectivity.

This standard says drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort."

Basically, we're talking about blatant drops, not the ones where your old man leans over and says anything that grazed the receiver anywhere was a drop in his day.

"Only use this if the receiver is 100 percent at fault and no one else can be blamed for the incompletion," ESPN tells its game charters. "Pass interference that wasn't called/passes thrown just outside the receiver's reach, etc., are NOT drops."

https://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/45689/what-constitutes-a-dropped-pass

 

Just about any statistics site uses the same principal.  With this in mind, I believe what I said earlier.  Drop ball math should be applied to catchable balls, not attempts.  Again, if a ball isn't catchable it has zero chance of being a drop.  Since all recorded drops are catchable passes and since all drops are only recorded if its an ordinary type catch(not something the receiver has to dive or lean or make some funky play even if it hits his hands), there really is no subjectivity here. 

 

This is why many fans see 4 drops and wonder why only 1 drop is recorded in the stat column.  Hitting the hands does not apply to this stat.  Even if the ball is thrown slightly behind the receiver and the dude has to do nothing but put his hands to the right of his helmet to catch the ball... it wont be recorded as a drop because it is not considered an ordinary effort.

 

 

[Real McClappy]

14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Travis Kelce does this-

 

Dawson Knox does this- 

 

Tyreek Hill does this-

 

Cole Beasley does this-

 

Bonus of Singletary doing this-

 

and this

 

 

These were huge drops in that Ravens game that really helped decide a football game. 

 

I like Knox overall but he's a huge liability at this phase. If he doesn't clean it up we need to be looking for another pass catching TE early in next years draft. 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2019 by Real McCoy

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Are they though? I mean Michael Thomas is amazing but outside him I think you could argue Texans, Chiefs, Vikings, Browns, maybe even Lions have better overall pass catchers.  

 

I agree. I mean if you took Thomas out it is a bottom 5 of the NFL receiving corps. Who would be the #1 in that scenario? Ted Ginn? Yuck. 

[Billsfan1972]

12 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I hear you that they are subjective to all of us.  However, stats sites define what a drop is and that is applied to everyone.  It isn't as subjective as you think it is and it essentially more so favors the receiver by a country mile.  Here is what ESPN says about their drop statistic...

 

 

Just about any statistics site uses the same principal.  With this in mind, I believe what I said earlier.  Drop ball math should be applied to catchable balls, not attempts.  Again, if a ball isn't catchable it has zero chance of being a drop.  Since all recorded drops are catchable passes and since all drops are only recorded if its an ordinary type catch(not something the receiver has to dive or lean or make some funky play even if it hits his hands), there really is no subjectivity here. 

 

This is why many fans see 4 drops and wonder why only 1 drop is recorded in the stat column.  Hitting the hands does not apply to this stat.  Even if the ball is thrown slightly behind the receiver and the dude has to do nothing but put his hands to the right of his helmet to catch the ball... it wont be recorded as a drop because it is not considered an ordinary effort.

 

 

Saved Zay Jones stats!!!!!!!  He seldom made any effort if not in his hands.?

[Scott7975]

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Saved Zay Jones stats!!!!!!!  He seldom made any effort if not in his hands.?

 

Right?

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Saved Zay Jones stats!!!!!!!  He seldom made any effort if not in his hands.?

 

It is true and it is why I think you have to look at drops and overall catch %. I know catch percentage is generally higher for possession guys as against big play guys and that factors in but seriously if a guy is barely breaking 50% of his targets there is normally a problem even if his official "drop" numbers are low. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

I agree with your sentiment re: drops and what is officially deemed as such. The Bills WRs and TEs May not “ drop” more passes than the average team by a whole lot. What that doesn’t account for is the many, many passes caught by other teams players that were far from perfect throws. The Bills pass catchers rarely make these types of grabs, and others make them pretty routinely. If you watch a lot of NFL games, the Bills passing game seems lacking and depends on perfect throws to make plays. 

 

Except they do drop more passes than the average team.  6.5% drops vs 3.9% drops is about 50% more.

 

And, to the point you and others have made, those are merely the balls scored as drops.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is why some fans underestimate. Some qbs throw more catchable balls. I always feel drops is a stat that people want to lean on for Allen.  He has never been a particularly accurate since high school.  So either he consistently plays with terrible brick hand wrs or he doesn’t throw the most catchable balls.  I bet there are plenty of rocket armed qbs who have a lot of drops.  The difference between those guys and say Mahomes is Mahomes has excellent touch on his balls (sounds dirty).  

 

Seems like you’re passing the blame from Allen. I remember numerous crossing patterns where the ball is behind the receiver that they manage to get their hands on (but for any receiver going reaching behind while going in the opposite direction is extremely hard) that might count as a drop.  
 

allen has improved in the underneath passing area but he still isn’t consistently good enough. 

 

A drop is a drop and a poor pass is a poor pass.  There may be a tiny bit of overlap but the two things are different and counted differently.

 

I would hazard to guess that the great majority of dropped passes (over 95%) are NOT on Allen.  Just like the great majority of missed throws are not on the receivers running the route wrong.  One measure describes a receiving problem and one a QB problem.  Don't try to make BOTH measures about Allen.  It reeks of bias.

 

And I've never said that Allen doesn't throw bad passes.  EVERY QB does.  As for Mahomes throwing "catchable" balls I can only go by what I've seen and what I see are receivers who CATCH his passes even when they're poorly thrown.  How many times have you seen Kelsey grab a ball that was down around his knees or soaring over his head? 

 

And down here in Southern Ohio High School football is big and I watch most of the Friday Night games the team in my community plays.  And every time someone talks about Allen's accuracy in HIGH SCHOOL they lose a lot of credibility with me.  What a player does in high school has almost nothing to do with what they do in the NFL.  NOTHING.  It tells me you don't actually watch much HS football.

 

 

 

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

20 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

These were huge drops in that Ravens game that really helped decide a football game. 

 

I like Knox overall but he's a huge liability at this phase. If he doesn't clean it up we need to be looking for another pass catching TE early in next years draft. 

 

 

 

Allen's DEEP throw to Singleterry was on the money and if #26 had more experience on fly patterns he would have run through that catch and not tried to jump for the ball.  And Fouts said exactly that.

 

The quick flat pass to Singleterry was PERFECT and if he makes his guy miss that's a huge gain. 

 

The throw to Knox was PERFECT and may have been a TD if the small DB misses the tackle as Knox turns towards the end zone.

 

The throw to Beasley was also PERFECT and was made after Allen got out of trouble in a collapsing picket.  These 4 plays ALL happened in the 3rd quarter.  Had the catches been made the Bills win the game. 

 

 

 

 

[Michael1962]

Maybe someone brought this up already but the related thing that amazes me is when I watch pretty much any other team and their receivers not only catch the balls thrown to them but also catch some that most would label "circus catches" or catches where everyone is amazed that the receiver could catch it.  Meanwhile our receivers struggle with basics.  If I saw one of our receivers make a spectacular catch I would pinch myself/make sure I wasn't hallucinating.

[NoSaint]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Not that it's good, but pro.football.reference gives our team drop rate as 6.4% - which is leading the league, by a good chalk. 

Last year we were mid-league with 4.8%

 

I am not sure, but I think Knox with his 20% drop rate may be a good part of that increase.  Singletary 10.8% also not good.  Some people attribute this to being rookies, as many times the drop is on easier passes where they have a ton of room - they transition to thinking about the run before they've finished "looking in" the ball.

 

But something is off with the calculation of 11% drops.  It's simply not that high.

I don’t believe it’s an official stat so there wouldn’t be uniform numbers 

[Prickly Pete]

9 hours ago, Gugny said:

Wind means nothing when the ball hits receivers either on the hands or in the chest.  The ball is there.

 

And if a pass catcher can't handle a fastball, then he doesn't belong in the NFL.

 

It's pathetic and it's cost us games.  A lot of these drops have been either imminent first downs or imminent touchdowns.

 

Ridiculous.

 

 

Where do you get this?

To act like how fast the ball is coming doesn't affect how difficult it can be to catch, is just nonsense. Like because they are in the NFL, the laws of physics don't apply.

 

"They're professionals, if they shoot the ball out of a cannon, and they cannot catch it, they should lose their job."

 

 

I am all onboard with Josh Allen, but I think the lack of touch on his passes is one of his biggest problems.

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, Michael1962 said:

Maybe someone brought this up already but the related thing that amazes me is when I watch pretty much any other team and their receivers not only catch the balls thrown to them but also catch some that most would label "circus catches" or catches where everyone is amazed that the receiver could catch it.  Meanwhile our receivers struggle with basics.  If I saw one of our receivers make a spectacular catch I would pinch myself/make sure I wasn't hallucinating.

 

Well Knox did have that nice 1 handed catch, but yet he dropped the easy one. So I guess it cancels out lol

[LSHMEAB]

This has turned into another debate in which both stances have merit. A) Allen is not the most accurate QB out there and he needs to improve his ball placement and B) The receiving unit as a whole is mediocre, inexperienced, and lacking that big time weapon.

[Gugny]

49 minutes ago, 32ABBA said:

 

 

Where do you get this?

To act like how fast the ball is coming doesn't affect how difficult it can be to catch, is just nonsense. Like because they are in the NFL, the laws of physics don't apply.

 

"They're professionals, if they shoot the ball out of a cannon, and they cannot catch it, they should lose their job."

 

 

I am all onboard with Josh Allen, but I think the lack of touch on his passes is one of his biggest problems.

 

 

The ball isn't being shot out of a cannon; it's being thrown by a human being.  Said ball is also hitting professional pass catchers in the hands and/or chest.  It's inexcusable for them to drop those passes.  Period.

 

This is not about physics.  It's about people who are paid an ass ton of money to catch passes being thrown by another person.

 

Stop with the BS excuses.

[LABILLBACKER]

59 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

This has turned into another debate in which both stances have merit. A) Allen is not the most accurate QB out there and he needs to improve his ball placement and B) The receiving unit as a whole is mediocre, inexperienced, and lacking that big time weapon.

I will say the majority of the blame (75%) is on our wrs/te. But I would be remiss if I didn't mention that Josh has to on some throws reduce velocity and increase touch. The only problem he has on longer throws (30+) is flat trajectory.  And that's something he'll have to fix on his own. In the meantime boys, catch the damn ball. 

[CoudyBills]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Travis Kelce does this-

 

Dawson Knox does this- 

 

Tyreek Hill does this-

 

Cole Beasley does this-

 

Bonus of Singletary doing this-

 

and this

 

 

What's not clear here?  Clearly Josh can't hit the broad side of a...or um duh.  Giddy Up Horse Face.

[Real McClappy]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

 

 

The ball isn't being shot out of a cannon; it's being thrown by a human being.  Said ball is also hitting professional pass catchers in the hands and/or chest.  It's inexcusable for them to drop those passes.  Period.

 

This is not about physics.  It's about people who are paid an ass ton of money to catch passes being thrown by another person.

 

Stop with the BS excuses.

This 100 times over. 

 

Let's blame Allen and Daboll as our players can't execute. It's really that simple!

 

If players can't catch Allen's "cannons or lazers" then find players that will when the ball hits them in both hands. 

 

All I can think of is the Crowder inexcusable drop TD last game wide open against  the Ravens = Bills.

Then followed by the insane Crowder TD = Not Bills

 

Wide open Drop - Bills

Insane catch - Not Bills

Our players never make these contested catches. We need to get better fast as it's a bigger problem than most think. Just bash Daboll and Allen due to execution issues.  It's a cool story..........

 

 

Pew, Pew

Edited December 15, 2019 by Real McCoy

[Prickly Pete]

4 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

 

The ball isn't being shot out of a cannon; it's being thrown by a human being.  Said ball is also hitting professional pass catchers in the hands and/or chest.  It's inexcusable for them to drop those passes.  Period.

 

This is not about physics.  It's about people who are paid an ass ton of money to catch passes being thrown by another person.

 

Stop with the BS excuses.

 

 

Poppycock.

 

I guess the Bills should just get rid of all the receivers again, and start over, because it's 2 years in a row, and I'm betting it will continue regardless of the Receiving Corp.

 

 

 

 

[hemma]

Since it is illegal to capture a player's attention by smacking him with a 2" x 4", do the next best thing.

Bench Knox.  Maybe he'll wake up and after 13 games, get it through his skull that catching the ball is his job.

 

Patience, my glutes.

[ganesh]

21 hours ago, TroutDog said:

For Singletary and Knox, I attribute it to their college careers: nether were pass catchers. In addition, it does take time for most receivers to get used to the NFL level. 
 

As a reminder, Robert Woods was perpetually flamed here: look at him now. Patience is required at this level for almost everyone. 

and the level of concentration required at the NFL level.   They will learn and thrive

[Gugny]

6 hours ago, 32ABBA said:

 

 

Poppycock.

 

I guess the Bills should just get rid of all the receivers again, and start over, because it's 2 years in a row, and I'm betting it will continue regardless of the Receiving Corp.

 

 

 

 

 

All of them?  No.  And I'm sure you'll find someone to take that bet.

[CoudyBills]

13 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Recievers drop balls occasionally. This happens around the league, but Bills recievers outside of Brown and Beasley suck.... still, If Josh could actually hit some deep passes that Ravens game is probably a different outcome.

 

Expecting Singletary to catch that last deep ball is ridiculous. He's a 5' 7" RB diving for an overthrown ball. 

Is it okay to expect Singeltary, Beasley, and Knox to catch the ones that hit them in the hands?  Regarding the deep ball thing, no argument from me.  That first deep ball to JB should have been 6.

[Gugny]

16 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Recievers drop balls occasionally. This happens around the league, but Bills recievers outside of Brown and Beasley suck.... still, If Josh could actually hit some deep passes that Ravens game is probably a different outcome.

 

Expecting Singletary to catch that last deep ball is ridiculous. He's a 5' 7" RB diving for an overthrown ball. 

 

This isn't about Allen's deep ball inaccuracy; it's about drops.  I don't think anyone is saying Josh Allen is perfect.

 

There was at least one drop that would have kept a drive alive and two imminent TD drops (on one of those drives, we still scored) in the Ravens game.  I agree that the there were guys open on a couple of the deep balls; but that's not the topic of this thread.

 

Drops changed outcome of the game every bit as much - if not more - than the missed deep balls.

[Gugny]

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

No argument here.... like I said, outside of Brown and Beasley their receiving corps is awful. 

 

I don't think anyone would, or even can, disagree with that.

[oldmanfan]

When I played PeeWee football the rule was if you got your hands it, you catch it.  Why should that be different for pros?

[CincyBillsFan]

If you haven't yet, check out the "Is Josh Allen a Good QB" thread.  It has one of the best video breakdowns of Allen, focusing on the Baltimore game, that I've ever seen.  Well worth spending 20 minutes watching it.

 

It will leave you very optimistic for the Bill's future.

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

13 hours ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

 

Well Knox did have that nice 1 handed catch, but yet he dropped the easy one. So I guess it cancels out lol

It was a nice catch, but an even more impressive pass.....  BTW 37 yards doesn't represent a "deep ball"?

[Scott7975]

24 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

When I played PeeWee football the rule was if you got your hands it, you catch it.  Why should that be different for pros?

 

Well apparently a QBs arm strength gets better from PeeWee to the pros but receivers hands and concentration don't.

[Billsfan1972]

23 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

When I played PeeWee football the rule was if you got your hands it, you catch it.  Why should that be different for pros?

Agreed, but drops are ruled otherwise.  I.e. Only the Knox & Singletary passes were deemed drops, not the Beasley long ball or any others.

[Scott7975]

5 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

If you haven't yet, check out the "Is Josh Allen a Good QB" thread.  It has one of the best video breakdowns of Allen, focusing on the Baltimore game, that I've ever seen.  Well worth spending 20 minutes watching it.

 

It will leave you very optimistic for the Bill's future.

 

 

 

Absolutely it is the best and most intelligent break down I have seen.

[Patrick Duffy]

4 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

It was a nice catch, but an even more impressive pass.....  BTW 37 yards doesn't represent a "deep ball"?

I don't know? Does it? It looked like maybe an middle of the pack deep ball? Why you ask?