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Week 15: Bills at Steelers on SNF


YoloinOhio

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5 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said:

I feel this game will determine our season.  We currently control our own destiny. If we win we are in the playoffs.

 

If we lose, we lose the tie breaker with the Steelers.  We then need to hope the Steelers lose to either the Jets or the Ravens.  If the Ravens have clinched home field throughout the playoffs, they may be resting their starters and Steelers could win that game.

 

This is a defining game.  Defense needs to play at their best.  The offense must protect Allen better.  Allen needs to hit some long passes.  I am a huge Allen fan, but his continually over throwing open receivers down field is getting hard to take.  If he had hit one of those throws vs the Ravens, we would have won the game.

 

I am really concerned about this game Sunday night.

 

Go Bills!

If we win any of the 3 games we are in the playoffs.  Tie breaker with the Steelers doesn't matter at all.  I don't know what you are getting at.

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5 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said:

I feel this game will determine our season.  We currently control our own destiny. If we win we are in the playoffs.

 

If we lose, we lose the tie breaker with the Steelers.  We then need to hope the Steelers lose to either the Jets or the Ravens.  If the Ravens have clinched home field throughout the playoffs, they may be resting their starters and Steelers could win that game.

 

This is a defining game.  Defense needs to play at their best.  The offense must protect Allen better.  Allen needs to hit some long passes.  I am a huge Allen fan, but his continually over throwing open receivers down field is getting hard to take.  If he had hit one of those throws vs the Ravens, we would have won the game.

 

I am really concerned about this game Sunday night.

 

Go Bills!

I hope they win obviously but there is no tiebreaker scenario here. The Bills only need to win one of the final 3 games to make the playoffs. They control their own destiny when it comes to simply punching the ticket. 

Edited by YoloinOhio
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Matt Parrino article from NYUp:

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2019/12/how-josh-allen-bills-offense-is-planning-to-bounce-back-vs-steelers-no-5-pass-defense.html

 

Some Steelers-sided perspective on Allen:

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2019/12/11/21011129/steelers-prepare-for-a-different-form-of-running-quarterback-in-bills-josh-allen-nfl-news-week-15

Spoiler: they think he's a little different in running style than Kyler Murray, they've noticed his banged-up ankle, and they believe a spy will help

 

How they think their offense can beat us:

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2019/12/11/21004023/steelers-staying-ahead-of-the-chains-will-be-the-key-to-offensive-success-vs-the-bills-duck-hodges

Spoiler: they think we are vulnerable to the inside zone and have pulled up Eagles footage to demonstrate.  Hope we've fixed it!

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On 12/10/2019 at 6:23 PM, Heitz said:

Are there a lot of TBD'ers heading to the game?   Should we start a roll call thread?  Where's the Pinto tailgate (haven't seen it pop up on Twitter yet).

 

I'm heading to the 'Burgh on Friday to meet up with hometown homies and college bros!  Parking in one of the Gold lots and other friends are at Stage AE.

 

Should be fun, I've never been to a game in Heinz Field (only a couple in Three Rivers BITD) and I haven't seen the crew in a loooong time!  :beer:

 

Enjoy man, hopefully there will be a large Bills contingent there with you to turn up the noise on the inexperienced Hodges. 

 

I was at Heinz Field to see UB play University of Pittsburgh back in 2007 or 2008. Was a cool stadium from what I can remember, we were up in the nosebleeds. Pitt had a certain RB back then as well who made a lot of tacklers look silly (Shady). 

 

Go Bills!

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21 hours ago, Greg S said:

 

It's amazing that they are only 6-7 when you look their talent.

It really is...Exhibit A that coaching and culture do matter (and that having a meddlesome sociopath for an owner can really hurt your team's chances for success). 

 

Thankfully, I think we're in good shape on all three and another great off-season would vault our Bills into the upper echelon of genuine Super Bowl contenders.

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50 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

Really hope they are just being cautious with Liuget, we will really need him this week to stop the Steelers rushing attack. 

 

We do? Not so sure...they're 24th in rushing yards per game, and only 5 teams average fewer YPC than Pittsburgh.

 

Contrast that with Buffalo, who averages almost a full YPC more.

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People saying PGH offense is bad overlook that they are getting back their two best skill position players this week. The Bills will not be seeing the same team that has been out there the last few games. 

 

The Steelers have one of the best defenses in football, an improved offense, a great coach, at home, huge game, have won 7 of 8...hard to feel like this is anything but a very hard game. 

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2 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

People saying PGH offense is bad overlook that they are getting back their two best skill position players this week. The Bills will not be seeing the same team that has been out there the last few games. 

 

The Steelers have one of the best defenses in football, an improved offense, a great coach, at home, huge game, have won 7 of 8...hard to feel like this is anything but a very hard game. 

 

Neither of those players were having even a decent year for them.

 

JuJu had only 3 games with more than 70 yards (out of 10), and Connor average 3.3 YPC or fewer in 5/8 games.

 

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8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

We do? Not so sure...they're 24th in rushing yards per game, and only 5 teams average fewer YPC than Pittsburgh.

 

Contrast that with Buffalo, who averages almost a full YPC more.

 

without Conner, now with Conner. They have also gotten better schematically and statistically in their run game recently (sure, opponents have something to do with it). 140 last game, 124 before that, 160 before that...add in Conner, Pouncey back...yea I am worried about their run game more so than their passing attack. And we have been much better against the run since adding Liuget, so yea...I do think we need him in the lineup. 

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15 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

We haven't beaten the Steelers in 20 years. October 10th 1999 was the last time we beat them. We are 0-7 against them since. I hope we are able to snap that streak on Sunday night. I'm getting pretty pumped. Playoff spot on the line. Let's get it done

The history is tough to review, but it doesn’t mean much. There are only two players, and zero coaches on this team who even played the Steelers last time they met 3 years ago, let alone 20 years ago. While this current team has never played on SNF, many of the players have on other teams before coming to the Bills and have experienced success. If the Bills lose it will have nothing to do with the history of the Steelers or SNF. 

Edited by YoloinOhio
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https://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2019/film-room-steelers-defense

 

Based on this analysis - Gore needs to be deactivated this week, Yeldon should take his place.  They allow running backs to slip into the flat and dare you to throw it to them - they're fine with giving up a 4-5 yard swing pass.  We need to stay patient and take advantage of that, and Yeldon offers far more upside as a receiver out of the backfield.

 

I repeat: there is ZERO REASON Gore should be active this week, he adds nothing to the gameplan against that kind of defense.

Edited by Coach Tuesday
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7 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2019/film-room-steelers-defense

 

Based on this analysis - Gore needs to be deactivated this week, Yeldon should take his place.  They allow running backs to slip into the flat and dare you to throw it to them - they're fine with giving up a 4-5 yard swing pass.  We need to stay patient and take advantage of that, and Yeldon offers far more upside as a receiver out of the backfield.

 

I repeat: there is ZERO REASON Gore should be active this week, he adds nothing to the gameplan against that kind of defense.

 

The other thing I noticed is that they typically allow an offense to use their slot defender as a key. If Daboll and Josh have picked up on that tendency and can get comfortable with it, the hot throws will be there all game long.

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2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The other thing I noticed is that they typically allow an offense to use their slot defender as a key. If Daboll and Josh have picked up on that tendency and can get comfortable with it, the hot throws will be there all game long.

 

That, and you need to spread out the defenders.  If they try to go heavy with the max protect and bunch formations like they did last week, we'll likely see much of the same results.

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4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The other thing I noticed is that they typically allow an offense to use their slot defender as a key. If Daboll and Josh have picked up on that tendency and can get comfortable with it, the hot throws will be there all game long.

I would try to get Mark Barron into bad matchups. He’s been gross this year. 

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5 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2019/film-room-steelers-defense

 

Based on this analysis - Gore needs to be deactivated this week, Yeldon should take his place.  They allow running backs to slip into the flat and dare you to throw it to them - they're fine with giving up a 4-5 yard swing pass.  We need to stay patient and take advantage of that, and Yeldon offers far more upside as a receiver out of the backfield.

 

I repeat: there is ZERO REASON Gore should be active this week, he adds nothing to the gameplan against that kind of defense.

Which defense does he add anything against? His fresh legs wore off by week 3, he is toast. 

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On 12/9/2019 at 12:16 PM, CommonCents said:

An easy game? Allen Josh got slammed around for the better part of 3 quarters. The Steelers are even better at getting the QB.

 

I can assure you, no one at OBD is expecting any easy one this week. 

 

 

Yep. This looks like a 6-3-type game, unless there are turnovers, which the Steelers defense excels at, incidentally. It's a real test of the offense. The book on Allen, written by the Pats* and reinscribed by the Ravens, is open for anyone to read. Cheat the safeties in close to the LOS, since Allen can't hit the deep routes, and mix up the constant blitzes. I hope Daboll has them practicing screens and hot reads. 

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13 minutes ago, finn said:

Yep. This looks like a 6-3-type game, unless there are turnovers, which the Steelers defense excels at, incidentally. It's a real test of the offense. The book on Allen, written by the Pats* and reinscribed by the Ravens, is open for anyone to read. Cheat the safeties in close to the LOS, since Allen can't hit the deep routes, and mix up the constant blitzes. I hope Daboll has them practicing screens and hot reads. 

 

not every team can execute the Book that the Ravens and NE put out there though. In fact, they are likely the only two teams in the league who CAN execute it. 

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Just now, PaattMaann said:

 

not every team can execute the Book that the Ravens and NE put out there though. In fact, they are likely the only two teams in the league who CAN execute it. 

How so, the Steelers have a better front 7 than both of them. Play everything underneath force Allen to beat you over the top. It doesn’t hurt have Minkah running around out there either. 

 

This game is big chance for Allen and company to prove themselves against a top D. 

 

Outside of Duck Dynasty I think the Steelers match up against the Bills better than the Pats do. 

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6 minutes ago, finn said:

Yep. This looks like a 6-3-type game, unless there are turnovers, which the Steelers defense excels at, incidentally. It's a real test of the offense. The book on Allen, written by the Pats* and reinscribed by the Ravens, is open for anyone to read. Cheat the safeties in close to the LOS, since Allen can't hit the deep routes, and mix up the constant blitzes. I hope Daboll has them practicing screens and hot reads. 

 

Teams have been blitzing Allen since the Pats game, but it wasn't until Sunday that his long ball issues seriously impacted the offense.  Not everyone has Baltimore or New England's secondary.  Allen has to be better though or we will continue to be susceptible to teams stacking the box and flooding the short to intermediate routes.

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11 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

How so, the Steelers have a better front 7 than both of them. Play everything underneath force Allen to beat you over the top. It doesn’t hurt have Minkah running around out there either. 

 

This game is big chance for Allen and company to prove themselves against a top D. 

 

Outside of Duck Dynasty I think the Steelers match up against the Bills better than the Pats do. 

 

the how so is you need the BACK END to hold up to a cover 0...and you need to run a lot of man defense. The steelers dont have either of that. I expect them to run their usual zone coverages (defenses Josh and the Offense have done well against) but also adding in some LB/slot blitzes. Way different than what the ravens/pats did to us. 

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1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

The history is tough to review, but it doesn’t mean much. There are only two players, and zero coaches on this team who even played the Steelers last time they met 3 years ago, let alone 20 years ago. While this current team has never played on SNF, many of the players have on other teams before coming to the Bills and have experienced success. If the Bills lose it will have nothing to do with the history of the Steelers or SNF. 

I'm not saying I don't think we'll win. I just found it interesting that we haven't beaten them since Kordell Stewart was their QB

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2 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

I'm not saying I don't think we'll win. I just found it interesting that we haven't beaten them since Kordell Stewart was their QB

Yep, They’ve been good for a long time and we haven’t

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1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2019/film-room-steelers-defense

 

Based on this analysis - Gore needs to be deactivated this week, Yeldon should take his place.  They allow running backs to slip into the flat and dare you to throw it to them - they're fine with giving up a 4-5 yard swing pass.  We need to stay patient and take advantage of that, and Yeldon offers far more upside as a receiver out of the backfield.

 

I repeat: there is ZERO REASON Gore should be active this week, he adds nothing to the gameplan against that kind of defense.

But, I thought the seasons focus was to get him higher up on the all-time rb yards list. Are we supposed to actually try and win?!

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1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

That, and you need to spread out the defenders.  If they try to go heavy with the max protect and bunch formations like they did last week, we'll likely see much of the same results.

 

Yeah, the problem with max protect vs. cover 0 is that when a TE doesn’t go out on a pattern the guy who would be covering him almost always blitzes. They’re almost always going to have a man advantage in the blitz game. I’d rather spread them out and give Josh more room to move around in the pocket (or run) while also giving him more options to throw to.

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Since I have $0 FAAB left, I'm forced to start the Steelers defense against us in the second leg of my fantasy football championship this weekend...so rejoice! The Bills are definitely putting up 40+ points! ?

 

Would sacrifice the $350 prize money in a heartbeat if it meant the Bills would win in a stress-free blowout and clinch the playoff spot!

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9 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Since I have $0 FAAB left, I'm forced to start the Steelers defense against us in the second leg of my fantasy football championship this weekend...so rejoice! The Bills are definitely putting up 40+ points! ?

 

Would sacrifice the $350 prize money in a heartbeat if it meant the Bills would win in a stress-free blowout and clinch the playoff spot!

Forced?  That's a good play, but hopefully it doesn't work out.

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