Quality Wins - A Troubling Observation

[Do The Reich Thing]

A big question that looms large over this regime, is when will they get their statement win against a quality opponent?

 

Under McDermott the Bills have had two quality wins against teams that went on to make the playoffs that year. Amazingly enough NONE of them have been at home. They were both in 2017: @KC and @ATL

 

Are the Bills really just beating teams that they should and are they not that good? I hope not, but until they prove otherwise it appears to be the case. They seem to be content with mediocrity and doing just enough. This season feels like 2017 again with an even weaker schedule. McBeane has a lot to prove in my opinion and they need to get a quality win at HOME. Against the Ravens is the only chance left this year.   

Edited October 28, 2019 by Do The Reich Thing

[Z-Mann]

Totally agree.  They can beat bad teams, flip the coin against an "ok" team, lose against good teams.  Give me any kind of a statement win, home or away.  They will have a few chances later in the season (Patriots, Ravens, Cowboys), but it is difficult to see them winning those games....

 

[Rigotz]

Wow this is a really interesting and fresh opinion.

Did everyone else know that we have an easy schedule this year and haven't beaten a tough opponent?

 

THANK YOU!!!!!

[Steve O]

2 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

Totally agree.  They can beat bad teams, flip the coin against an "ok" team, lose against good teams.  Give me any kind of a statement win, home or away.  They will have a few chances later in the season (Patriots, Ravens, Cowboys), but it is difficult to see them winning those games....

 

If the Bills and Cowboys perform the way both did against the Eagles, might be best to plan an early Thanksgiving day dinner, lest the game spoils our appetites.

[blacklabel]

One of these "statement" wins will come.

 

What's interesting is the two remaining undefeated teams have also had powderpuff schedules and I don't hear anyone talking about that. 

 

And remember, the Bills weren't due to "arrive" until next year. They've had some success, perhaps unexpected for this season, but that type of stuff can only build confidence and help propel them to where they wanna go. Expectations skyrocket after a 5-1 start and then a loss happens and everyone forgets how young this team is and how much turnover they've had on the offensive side of the ball. They're still discovering their identity. 

[billybob71]

They will probably win one of those games (Cowboys, Ravens, Pats) but they will probably also lose at least one of the "easy" games to the Jets, Dolphins, Browns, Redskins etc. Welcome to the NFL people it changes from week to week depending on match ups, turnovers,coaching and especially officiating. And made even more unpredictable with a young QB. 

[Happy]

2 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

One of these "statement" wins will come.

 

What's interesting is the two remaining undefeated teams have also had powderpuff schedules and I don't hear anyone talking about that. 

 

And remember, the Bills weren't due to "arrive" until next year. They've had some success, perhaps unexpected for this season, but that type of stuff can only build confidence and help propel them to where they wanna go. Expectations skyrocket after a 5-1 start and then a loss happens and everyone forgets how young this team is and how much turnover they've had on the offensive side of the ball. They're still discovering their identity. 

 

San Fran is in arguably the toughest division in pro football.  NE has beat every team for years, so they have nothing to prove.

[Do The Reich Thing]

10 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Wow this is a really interesting and fresh opinion.

Did everyone else know that we have an easy schedule this year and haven't beaten a tough opponent?

 

THANK YOU!!!!!

 

I know you're frustrated, but don't take it out on me lol. This is an observation on us not winning a statement game

5 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

One of these "statement" wins will come.

 

What's interesting is the two remaining undefeated teams have also had powderpuff schedules and I don't hear anyone talking about that. 

 

And remember, the Bills weren't due to "arrive" until next year. They've had some success, perhaps unexpected for this season, but that type of stuff can only build confidence and help propel them to where they wanna go. Expectations skyrocket after a 5-1 start and then a loss happens and everyone forgets how young this team is and how much turnover they've had on the offensive side of the ball. They're still discovering their identity. 

I hope you're right and I love the optimism

[jkeerie]

2 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

One of these "statement" wins will come.

 

What's interesting is the two remaining undefeated teams have also had powderpuff schedules and I don't hear anyone talking about that. 

 

And remember, the Bills weren't due to "arrive" until next year. They've had some success, perhaps unexpected for this season, but that type of stuff can only build confidence and help propel them to where they wanna go. Expectations skyrocket after a 5-1 start and then a loss happens and everyone forgets how young this team is and how much turnover they've had on the offensive side of the ball. They're still discovering their identity. 

Excellent post.  I know the Bills played a horrid game yesterday against a team with a "losing" record, but the Eagles are not a bad football team.  They did expose some glaring holes defensively.  So now we need to see how the Bills coaching staff responds.  Get back to fundamentals.  Be critical of the coaching mistakes and move on.  There have been a handful of posters over the past weeks with the Bills winning.  Now with coming out flat against Miami and after this loss, the naysayers are pouncing.  We need to be realistic and take one game at a time.  

[ngbills]

13 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

One of these "statement" wins will come.

 

What's interesting is the two remaining undefeated teams have also had powderpuff schedules and I don't hear anyone talking about that. 

 

And remember, the Bills weren't due to "arrive" until next year. They've had some success, perhaps unexpected for this season, but that type of stuff can only build confidence and help propel them to where they wanna go. Expectations skyrocket after a 5-1 start and then a loss happens and everyone forgets how young this team is and how much turnover they've had on the offensive side of the ball. They're still discovering their identity. 

 

4 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

Excellent post.  I know the Bills played a horrid game yesterday against a team with a "losing" record, but the Eagles are not a bad football team.  They did expose some glaring holes defensively.  So now we need to see how the Bills coaching staff responds.  Get back to fundamentals.  Be critical of the coaching mistakes and move on.  There have been a handful of posters over the past weeks with the Bills winning.  Now with coming out flat against Miami and after this loss, the naysayers are pouncing.  We need to be realistic and take one game at a time.  

Seriously?

 

The Pats and SF are destroying teams every week. They are in a different class than the Bills.

 

Due to arrive next year? Every year its next year. While other teams are making super bowl plans we are talking about how the plan has always been next year or the year after. 

Jan 11 2017 Bills hire McD

Jan 12 2017 Rams hire McVay

Feb 6 2017 49ers hire Shanahan

 

But yeah the Bills need more time. 

[blacklabel]

11 minutes ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

 

I hope you're right and I love the optimism

 

Thanks. I just try to temper expectations, you know? Obviously it's difficult to really believe that this team has it together after we've seen starts like this before only to watch them burnout in the second half of the season. But I believe this team is more coherent and coached better than those past teams. I mean, most fans have been saying they can go 10-6, 11-5 maybe... well the losses have to happen sometime, right? This team has a good, solid foundation right now and they're still building. There are gonna be bumps in the road. Overall, I think they're gonna be alright.

[Mr. WEO]

How about a quality win against a team with a losing record?

[Do The Reich Thing]

1 minute ago, blacklabel said:

 

Thanks. I just try to temper expectations, you know? Obviously it's difficult to really believe that this team has it together after we've seen starts like this before only to watch them burnout in the second half of the season. But I believe this team is more coherent and coached better than those past teams. I mean, most fans have been saying they can go 10-6, 11-5 maybe... well the losses have to happen sometime, right? This team has a good, solid foundation right now and they're still building. There are gonna be bumps in the road. Overall, I think they're gonna be alright.

 

Agreed... I just know the common perception is, "what have you done for me lately" and "I want it now not later."

 

This season feels eerily similar to 2017 up to this point which does slightly worry me because that was supposed to be the rebuilding year. I think this regime can and will get it done, but it would be nice to get a quality win sooner than later. I think it happens against the Cowboys or Ravens.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

32 minutes ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

A big question that looms large over this regime, is when will they get their statement win against a quality opponent?

 

Under McDermott the Bills have had two quality wins against teams that went on to make the playoffs that year. Amazingly enough NONE of them have been at home. They were both in 2017: @KC and @ATL

 

Are the Bills really just beating teams that they should and are they not that good? I hope not, but until they prove otherwise it appears to be the case. They seem to be content with mediocrity and doing just enough. This season feels like 2017 again with an even weaker schedule. McBeane has a lot to prove in my opinion and they need to get a quality win at HOME. Against the Ravens is the only chance left this year.   

Interesting observation, I hadn't thought of it that way, but it is very true. My theory has always been, to be part of group of teams in the NFL you need to win 50% of your games to prove you belong. If you want to be a team that is sustainably a playoff team, you need to get your share of wins against them.

[cd1]

Bills fans already know what hell feels like so this is nothing...

[Do The Reich Thing]

2 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Interesting observation, I hadn't thought of it that way, but it is very true. My theory has always been, to be part of group of teams in the NFL you need to win 50% of your games to prove you belong. If you want to be a team that is sustainably a playoff team, you need to get your share of wins against them.

 

Handle our business against who we have to and beat the Cowboys on Turkey Day or the Ravens at home. Just have the killer instinct and go for it! I'm begging McD to stop playing not to lose.

[corta765]

2018 Minnesota. Vikings would’ve made the playoffs with that win and no one gave the Bills a chance to win.

 

This coaching staff seems to get 1-2 wins yearly you don’t expect so I wouldn’t freak out yet.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 minute ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

 

Handle our business against who we have to and beat the Cowboys on Turkey Day or the Ravens at home. Just have the killer instinct and go for it! I'm begging McD to stop playing not to lose.

Yes I feel the lack of aggressiveness and playing to win. The funny thing is, that when you coach like McD it usually means playing fundamental ball and avoiding errors, "don't beat yourself". We still routinely do that, not only on the field as players, but the coaching staff is guilty as well.

[ngbills]

Just now, corta765 said:

2018 Minnesota. Vikings would’ve made the playoffs with that win and no one gave the Bills a chance to win.

 

This coaching staff seems to get 1-2 wins yearly you don’t expect so I wouldn’t freak out yet.

Wow. Low bar we have here. Win 1-2 games against good teams. Hope for an easy schedule so maybe we can get 7-9 wins. 

[H2o]

3 minutes ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

 

Handle our business against who we have to and beat the Cowboys on Turkey Day or the Ravens at home. Just have the killer instinct and go for it! I'm begging McD to stop playing not to lose.

I think the defense is built for the bend, but don't break approach. Yesterday, when they started blitzing due to Philly's effective ground game, is when the big plays happened for chunk yardage. They are going to have to figure out that Zone-Read offense quickly because Dallas and Baltimore run the same thing with MUCH MORE athletic QB's than Philly. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

3 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Wow. Low bar we have here. Win 1-2 games against good teams. Hope for an easy schedule so maybe we can get 7-9 wins. 

Yeah I agree. Not good enough to win only when expected to, and then steal a game a year.

[US Egg]

Blowout losses speak volumes.

 

Imo, 10 of McD's 19 losses have been such.

[Socal-805]

48 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

Totally agree.  They can beat bad teams, flip the coin against an "ok" team, lose against good teams.  Give me any kind of a statement win, home or away.  They will have a few chances later in the season (Patriots, Ravens, Cowboys), but it is difficult to see them winning those games....

 

 

+ 1 

 

MIAMI put up 21 points and like 380 yards agaust this team.

 

 

[Casey D]

1 hour ago, Steve O said:

If the Bills and Cowboys perform the way both did against the Eagles, might be best to plan an early Thanksgiving day dinner, lest the game spoils our appetites.

Or if the Cowboys perform as they did against the Jets and our defense against the Pats--- extra food for all!!!!!

[Bob in STL]

1 hour ago, Z-Mann said:

Totally agree.  They can beat bad teams, flip the coin against an "ok" team, lose against good teams.  Give me any kind of a statement win, home or away.  They will have a few chances later in the season (Patriots, Ravens, Cowboys), but it is difficult to see them winning those games....

 

 

I am going to the Cowboys game in Dallas.  If they win it should not be difficult see, I have decent seats. 

[Mark80]

1 hour ago, Socal-805 said:

 

+ 1 

 

MIAMI put up 21 points and like 380 yards agaust this team.

 

 

 

Yeah, and the best QB of all time didn't do crap.  What's your point?

[blacklabel]

3 minutes ago, ngbills said:

 

Seriously?

 

The Pats and SF are destroying teams every week. They are in a different class than the Bills.

 

Due to arrive next year? Every year its next year. While other teams are making super bowl plans we are talking about how the plan has always been next year or the year after. 

Jan 11 2017 Bills hire McD

Jan 12 2017 Rams hire McVay

Feb 6 2017 49ers hire Shanahan

 

But yeah the Bills need more time. 

 

San Fran went 6-10 and 4-12 in Shanahan's first two seasons. They haven't experienced as much turnover. Rams had a pretty solid team with their franchise QB already in place when McVay took over. McBeane have had to pretty much build this thing from scratch.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

A big question that looms large over this regime, is when will they get their statement win against a quality opponent?

 

Under McDermott the Bills have had two quality wins against teams that went on to make the playoffs that year. Amazingly enough NONE of them have been at home. They were both in 2017: @KC and @ATL

 

Are the Bills really just beating teams that they should and are they not that good? I hope not, but until they prove otherwise it appears to be the case. They seem to be content with mediocrity and doing just enough. This season feels like 2017 again with an even weaker schedule. McBeane has a lot to prove in my opinion and they need to get a quality win at HOME. Against the Ravens is the only chance left this year.   

As I said in the Rockpile Review, good teams do two things:  They win the games they should, and they win some of the games against quality opponents.  Pre-McDermott, the Bills didn't consistently win the games they SHOULD win.  Now at least they're doing that.   Qualiity wins, as you point out, are the next step. 

[ngbills]

20 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

San Fran went 6-10 and 4-12 in Shanahan's first two seasons. They haven't experienced as much turnover. Rams had a pretty solid team with their franchise QB already in place when McVay took over. McBeane have had to pretty much build this thing from scratch.

Myth.

 

McVay and Shanahan have built those teams into winners. Rams offense was horrendous for a number of years before he got there and he turned it around. 49ers were terrible on both sides of the ball. Bills offense the last 3 years has yet to be as good as it was the 3 years before McD got hired. The D was good/decent ranked 4, 15, 16 before McD and has been 18. 18, 5 with him. Sobering facts. 

Edited October 28, 2019 by ngbills

[jrober38]

At this point the Bills are who I thought they'd be.

 

They're a team that plays hard, and has a very good defense and a bad offense that suffers from badly from inconsistency. 

 

The result is that our defense is good enough to allow us to beat most bad teams we play, and our offense is never going to let us beat anyone good.

 

The Bills look like they'll coast into the playoffs with 10 wins and a wildcard birth, mostly due to the fact they play arguably the weakest schedule I've ever seen a Bills team face, but overall this is not a good team relative to the top teams in the NFL. The defense is solid, but the offense isn't even close to being good enough at this point. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

At this point the Bills are who I thought they'd be.

 

They're a team that plays hard, and has a very good defense and a bad offense that suffers from badly from inconsistency. 

 

The result is that our defense is good enough to allow us to beat most bad teams we play, and our offense is never going to let us beat anyone good.

 

The Bills look like they'll coast into the playoffs with 10 wins and a wildcard birth, mostly due to the fact they play arguably the weakest schedule I've ever seen a Bills team face, but overall this is not a good team relative to the top teams in the NFL. The defense is solid, but the offense isn't even close to being good enough at this point. 

And anyone with eyes could have looked at the roster preseason and come to that conclusion. 

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

And anyone with eyes could have looked at the roster preseason and come to that conclusion. 

 

Sure, but people are acting like they think this team is good. It's not.

 

Our offense is a major problem, with essentially every position group contributing to our inability to score points. 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Sure, but people are acting like they think this team is good. It's not.

 

Our offense is a major problem, with essentially every position group contributing to our inability to score points. 

If by 'good' you mean 'compare favorably with top NFL teams', then no, they're not 'good'. I don't think many Bills fans would have put this team in that category before the season started. The roster, especially on offense as you mention, isn't talented enough yet.

 

However I think they're 'good' in the sense that they will win a significant majority of their games and be one of the top defensive teams in the league and average/below average offensively, and probably earn a wildcard. And I think that's a reasonable definition of 'good'. 

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

If by 'good' you mean 'compare favorably with top NFL teams', then no, they're not 'good'. I don't think many Bills fans would have put this team in that category before the season started. The roster, especially on offense as you mention, isn't talented enough yet.

 

However I think they're 'good' in the sense that they will win a significant majority of their games and be one of the top defensive teams in the league and average/below average offensively, and probably earn a wildcard. And I think that's a reasonable definition of 'good'. 

 

I think that's just taking advantage of a cup cake schedule.

 

Even if we go 10-6 with our wins pretty much all coming over teams picking in the top 10 of the draft, I don't think that makes us a good team. 

[auburnbillsbacker]

We have had below average talent due to flipping the roster.  The franchise is good shape going forward.  

[Socal-805]

11 minutes ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

We have had below average talent due to flipping the roster.  The franchise is good shape going forward.  

 

 

The Bills have the 26th oldest team in the NFl, so, they better keep "flipping"!

 

https://www.phillyvoice.com/ranking-nfl-teams-age-after-53-man-cutdowns-2019-edition/

 

[jkeerie]

3 hours ago, ngbills said:

 

Seriously?

 

The Pats and SF are destroying teams every week. They are in a different class than the Bills.

 

Due to arrive next year? Every year its next year. While other teams are making super bowl plans we are talking about how the plan has always been next year or the year after. 

Jan 11 2017 Bills hire McD

Jan 12 2017 Rams hire McVay

Feb 6 2017 49ers hire Shanahan

 

But yeah the Bills need more time. 

I agree with the Pats and SF being the apparent two best teams in the league with both being undefeated.

 

With respect to the Rams...they had so much talent on that team when McVay took over.  It's like the current Browns.  All they needed was a decent head coach.

 

The Bills had a huge hole to climb out of.  Relatively little talent.  Cap hell.  Horrid front office.  No QB.  They surprised us all with making the playoffs in 2017 where McD did so much with so little talent.  It doesn't matter that they needed help getting into the playoffs.  The fact is they did, and the teams that should have been there, lost the games that would have put them in.  The Bills won theirs.

 

Yesterday's game, no argument, was awful.  Perhaps it's indicative that this team isn't good at all and it's been a facade, or it was just a bad game.  I'm not willing to blow things up and declare McD an abject failure as a result.  There are elements of this team and it's coaching decisions that I'd like to see improved.  I'm willing to give them time.  

[mjt328]

Here is my problem.  How many opponents would actually be considered "quality" level?

 

If we had beaten the Eagles yesterday, they would be 3-5 and probably a long-shot to even make the playoffs.  Suddenly, nobody considers them a quality opponent.

The Titans were generally considered a good team.  But us defeating them is the difference between them being 4-4 and 5-3 (and tied with the Texans).

 

Looking in the AFC, I think it's safe to say that New England and Kansas City are considered quality opponents, hands-down.  Baltimore, Indianapolis and Houston look fairly imposing at the moment, because they have winning records.  But all of them are inconsistent, and a couple bad games/injuries would make victories over those teams suddenly look much less impressive.  The other 10 teams in the AFC are considered nobodies.

 

Another example.  Most would say, the Bills next TRUE TEST is on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys.  But what happens if Dallas drops their games against the Vikings and Patriots... and then we beat them too.  The entire world looks at Dallas with a 6-6 record, and says the Bills weren't able to beat a quality opponent.  

 

The same could be said for the Ravens in Week 14, who currently sit at 5-2.  They face the Patriots, Texans, Rams and 49ers before facing us.  If they drop all of those, you have another 6-6 team marching into Buffalo.

 

 

[corta765]

7 hours ago, ngbills said:

Wow. Low bar we have here. Win 1-2 games against good teams. Hope for an easy schedule so maybe we can get 7-9 wins. 

I mean 10-11 games are against teams we are even or better then sooo yea not bad

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

I would argue that the #1 determining factor of wins and losses is momentum/confidence. A coach or key player who has had success against a team usually continues that success. Wayyyyyy too much analysis is focused on talent and matchups in what is an emotional game.