SoCal Deek Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Thanksgiving will be huge. I’ll be there! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Likely scenario has Week 17 has a win and in game. Really need to have the Steelers, Colts, Raiders, and Texans to lose games down the back stretch here. Dont want to risk the entire season on beating the Jets Week 17. Beat the Broncos, Steelers, and Jets and youre in, plain and simple. Dont lose any of those games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said: Likely scenario has Week 17 has a win and in game. Really need to have the Steelers, Colts, Raiders, and Texans to lose games down the back stretch here. Dont want to risk the entire season on beating the Jets Week 17. Beat the Broncos, Steelers, and Jets and youre in, plain and simple. Dont lose any of those games. In this scenario the Jets will be fired up for revenge. It wasn't that long ago they needed a week 17 win at Buffalo to make the playoffs and the Bills ended their season. That was the game Fitz threw 3 INT's. I hope the Bills have a playoff spot clinched before week 17 but I doubt this will be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 23 minutes ago, ProeBills said: I'm also guilty of looking at the standings and remaining schedules to figure out the Bills' playoff path. Certainly I'm going to root in any individual non-Bills game for the best outcome that helps the Bills as in this thread. But......this type of analysis (below) is Bills fandom (and media) stuck in the Bills' miserable past. Top Wild Card: Buffalo Bills Current record: 7-3 Likely wins remaining: 2 (vs DEN, vs NYJ) Likely losses remaining: 3 (at DAL, vs BAL, at NE) Toss-ups remaining: 1 (at PIT) The miserable past had fans clinging to remote hopes that the stars would align for opponent losses and tie-breakers would fall in the Bills' favor. Likely losses????? Really??? I am going to choose to embrace The Process. Pretty sure the conversation in the locker room this week isn't "we gotta win this one cause we have some likely losses coming up". Like the players, I expect to win every one of the next 6 "this week's games". The Bills are in the driver's seat here. This year the other teams are praying for Bills' losses. Enjoy the ride. It's been a while. In past seasons, at the midway point,the Bills were always chasing the WC. This season they have control of the WC. Just Win Baby!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, Greg S said: In this scenario the Jets will be fired up for revenge. It wasn't that long ago they needed a week 17 win at Buffalo to make the playoffs and the Bills ended their season. That was the game Fitz threw 3 INT's. I hope the Bills have a playoff spot clinched before week 17 but I doubt this will be the case. The only way they dont need that game is if they somehow beat one of the Ravens, Cowboys or Patriots. And then dont lose to either the Steelers or Broncos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theAteam Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Greg S said: In this scenario the Jets will be fired up for revenge. It wasn't that long ago they needed a week 17 win at Buffalo to make the playoffs and the Bills ended their season. That was the game Fitz threw 3 INT's. I hope the Bills have a playoff spot clinched before week 17 but I doubt this will be the case. Was there anyone on the Jets that played in that game and is still on their roster? Hell, Leveon Bell was on the Steelers team that got put into the playoffs because we won that game. They might play for the spoiler factor but I'm not seeing a revenge game scenario. Edited November 19, 2019 by theAteam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronxbomber21 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 (edited) There is a big Thursday night game with the Colts & Texans so one of those 2 teams will be getting a loss who are we rooting against ? Edited November 19, 2019 by Bronxbomber21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrbojanglezs Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 I am glad all the hard teams area at the END of the season....more time for the team to improve and give them our best effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, theAteam said: Was there anyone on the Jets that played in that game and is still on their roster? Hell, Leveon Bell was on the Steelers team that got put into the playoffs because we won that game. They might play for the spoiler factor but I'm not seeing a revenge game scenario. It was what 2015, or 2016? It's possible some players were on the roster but I don't know. I am a Bills fan who lives in NJ so I have plenty of family, friends, co-workers who are Jets fans, and it has already been said to me how they hope the Bills need a week 17 win and the Jets can get payback. I am sure when the time comes if that is the scenario the NYC media will bring it up about the Jets getting payback on the Bills. I remember when the Bills ruined the Jets season it was big news here in the NY/NJ area. Jets fans were calling WFAN (local sports station) cursing out the Jets and the Bills. It will be a story here if the Bills need a week 17 win to get in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said: There is a big Thursday night game with the Colts & Texans so one of those 2 teams will be getting a loss who are we rooting against ? I thought the Texans had the easier schedule, it looks like they have the exact same strength of schedule remaining. We spend the remainder of the season rooting against whoever loses this game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boco357 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said: I thought the Texans had the easier schedule, it looks like they have the exact same strength of schedule remaining. We spend the remainder of the season rooting against whoever loses this game. I would root for Houston since Indy already has 4 conference losses and this would give them 5--5 in the conference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngbills Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 11 hours ago, matter2003 said: Cleveland is not going to make the playoffs...Miami is not an easy win...and Cincinnati will probably beat them once...they have to win a game somewhere. I mean people already are figuring out who is going to win and lose before the games are even played....doesnt work like that. I'll guarantee you at least 3 of your above predictions are wrong. It's a week to week league, every week is different and you don't know who is going to be hurt for all pf these games... 538 lists the Bills as having a 71% chance of making the playoffs, far and away the highest of any wild card team. Indy is second with a 54% chance and nobody else is above 40%. Houston is predicted to win the AFC South with a 71% chance of making the playoffs. Funny you start by saying "Cleveland is not going to make the playoffs...Miami is not an easy win...and Cincinnati will probably beat them once...they have to win a game somewhere." Then go on to be critical of others saying "I mean people already are figuring out who is going to win and lose before the games are even played....doesnt work like that." That is the point of this all. Playing with who wins that game or this game and how it impacts who gets in the playoffs. That is why ESPN has the playoff machine in the first place. Obviously no one knows what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Bronxbomber21 said: There is a big Thursday night game with the Colts & Texans so one of those 2 teams will be getting a loss who are we rooting against ? #3 Colts - Wins tie break over Kansas City based on head-to-head win percentage #4 Chiefs - Wins tie break over Oakland based on head-to-head win percentage. #5 Bills #6 Houston - Wins tie break over Oakland based on head-to-head win percentage. #7 Raiders Unless you want the Colts and Texans flip flopping week to week .... I'd say the Colts AFC tiebreakers: Indianapolis is ahead of Houston in the AFC South based on head to head (1-0). Houston is ahead of Oakland based on head to head (1-0). Pittsburgh is ahead of Tennessee based on conference record (4-3 to the Titans' 3-4). Cleveland is ahead of Jacksonville based on conference record (Browns' 4-3 to the Jaguars' 4-4). Denver is ahead of the N.Y. Jets based on conference record (3-4 to the Jets' 0-6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla03 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 I think beating denver and then sneaking a win vs dallas on thanksgiving is our best hope. that way we only need 1 win between the steelers and jets. Baltimore is a nightmare matchup for us. best running attack in the league and a defense that feasts off turnovers. and we have never beat Brady in Foxboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 1 hour ago, theAteam said: Was there anyone on the Jets that played in that game and is still on their roster? Hell, Leveon Bell was on the Steelers team that got put into the playoffs because we won that game. They might play for the spoiler factor but I'm not seeing a revenge game scenario. Probably not a lot of players on either team that actually played in that game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 (edited) 38 minutes ago, ngbills said: Funny you start by saying "Cleveland is not going to make the playoffs...Miami is not an easy win...and Cincinnati will probably beat them once...they have to win a game somewhere." Then go on to be critical of others saying "I mean people already are figuring out who is going to win and lose before the games are even played....doesnt work like that." That is the point of this all. Playing with who wins that game or this game and how it impacts who gets in the playoffs. That is why ESPN has the playoff machine in the first place. Obviously no one knows what will happen. That's a valid point...i think i meant determining every games outcomes to come up with a final record is likely not effective...there are always shocking outcomes or losses that teams have down the stretch where the team buckles under pressure or plays too tight or have an inexplicable bad game, etc...and that includes the Bills...we have no idea how they will handle the pressure of the next 6 games and having expectations put on them. Its easy to fly under the radar when nothing is expected...now that there are some expectations, everything changes. Edited November 19, 2019 by matter2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngbills Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, matter2003 said: That's a valid point...i think i meant determining every games outcomes to come up with a final record is likely not effective...there are always shocking outcomes or losses that teams have down the stretch where the team buckles under pressure and plays too tight...and that includes the Bills...we have no idea how they will handle the pressure of the next 6 games and having expectations put on them. Its easy to fly under the radar when nothing is expected...now that there are some expectations, everything changes. Agreed. Hopefully Bills are not part of the shocking outcomes. Losing a week 17 game to a 3-12 Jets team to miss the playoffs. Very likely scenario they are in a win and your in game to close the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 (edited) 2 minutes ago, ngbills said: Agreed. Hopefully Bills are not part of the shocking outcomes. Losing a week 17 game to a 3-12 Jets team to miss the playoffs. Very likely scenario they are in a win and your in game to close the season. Yup....but wouldn't that be ironic if we end up losing in the same situation the Jets were in against us a few years ago with Fitz and they lost to miss the playoffs? Doesn't matter what the record is, division games are never gimme games at any point and the Bills are not so much better than the Jets that it would be a shocking upset if they lost...especially if Darnold continues his good play the last few games... Edited November 19, 2019 by matter2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 2 hours ago, thenorthremembers said: The only way they dont need that game is if they somehow beat one two of the Ravens, Cowboys or Patriots. And then dont lose to either the Steelers or Broncos. Any Other Games FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBaumer Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 If buffalo loses to Pitt, no playoffs for sure. If they do beat Pitt, I still think they will need Chargers to knock off the Chiefs in week 17 for us to get in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 (edited) 18 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said: If buffalo loses to Pitt, no playoffs for sure. If they do beat Pitt, I still think they will need Chargers to knock off the Chiefs in week 17 for us to get in.... Chargers to knock off the Chiefs is not in any reasonable scenario that I came across http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine Win against Denver, Pitt and NYJ and its a lock. It shouldn't matter what the other teams do with one caveat If you base the machine to Win % I got the Bills out of the WC - The LAST thing we need to see is a Houston Indy TIE Edited November 19, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngbills Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 1 hour ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: Chargers to knock off the Chiefs is not in any reasonable scenario that I came across http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine Win against Denver, Pitt and NYJ and its a lock. It shouldn't matter what the other teams do with one caveat If you base the machine to Win % I got the Bills out of the WC - The LAST thing we need to see is a Houston Indy TIE We win these 3 and we are 10-6. Still can miss out if Ind beats HOU and all else falls according to current win %. Per ESPN OAK in at 11-5 IND in at 11-5 HOU in at 10-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lenigmusx Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 33 minutes ago, ngbills said: We win these 3 and we are 10-6. Still can miss out if Ind beats HOU and all else falls according to current win %. Per ESPN OAK in at 11-5 IND in at 11-5 HOU in at 10-6 Run the table and win the division! 13-3 all the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 According to the NYT, the Bills can go 2-4 and still be 67% for the playoffs IF they beat Pittsburgh. 3-3 gets them in ~90% of the time regardless of who the wins come against. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 All I know is that if we go 13-3 we're in, and we have a >60% shot at a bye. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmotionallyUnstable Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Week 12 Rooting Interests (Bolded teams): Broncos vs. BILLS...8-3! COLTS vs. Texans...Bringing the Colts to 7-4, and dropping the Texans to 6-5. It’s not ideal, but someone has to win. I think I’d prefer the Colts as the division winner. I’d want no part of having to play Watson in the playoffs round one. However, I think the Texans are the better team. Raiders vs. JETS...We can always hope for them to fall to 6-5, but they’ll likely take care of business and end the week at 7-4, one game back from us. DOLPHINS vs. Browns...I actually like the Dolphins here, and don’t think it’d be all that crazy to expect a good game from the Phins. A Browns loss will hand them their 7th loss, likely taking them out of contention. Steelers vs. BENGALS...You just never know with division games... JAGUARS vs. Titans...Both teams would then sit at 5-6. I’m not concerned about either, as I think they have a mixed bag along the rest of the way, and will both likely fizzle our to a disappointing 8-8 or 7-9 COWBOYS vs. Patriots...Let’s go!!!!! Ravens vs. RAMS...Not a huge deal here, but why not root for the NFC to serve up some humble pie and bring those birds back down to earth a few weeks ahead of our meeting. Ravens are hot, and I bet they keep it rolling Teams on Byes: Chiefs, Chargers Synopsis: This could be a very boring week for AFC teams looking to gain ground on the wild card. Many teams in the hunt play games vs. non-contenders and struggling teams. It’s also a chance for one of those teams to sneak a win, and the unfortunate victim to suffer a crippling loss. As many have stated, the only thing that matters is the Bills to win. I think that this point should be emphasized in a week where many contenders likely are looking at adding to their win columns. Playoff Predictions Post-Week 12: Division Leaders: Patriots (9-2) Ravens (9-2) Chiefs (7-4) Texans (7-4) Wild Card: 1) Bills (8-3) 2) Raiders (7-4) In the Hunt: 3) Steelers (6-5) 2) Colts (6-5) 5) Jaguars (5-6) 6) Browns (5-6) 7) Titans (5-6) Disclaimers: I am not sure who owns tie breakers, and am not willing to do the leg work on which 5th or 6th team has the H2H advantage in a hypothetical situation that probably won’t ever happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 (edited) 19 hours ago, Bronxbomber21 said: There is a big Thursday night game with the Colts & Texans so one of those 2 teams will be getting a loss who are we rooting against ? I think we root for the Texans, because if we win Sunday, we would hold a tie-breaker over the Colts the rest of the season (common opponents--according to another thread) Or, "just win baby" that beats all tie-breakers Edited November 20, 2019 by CSBill 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 On 11/19/2019 at 3:14 PM, KD in CA said: According to the NYT, the Bills can go 2-4 and still be 67% for the playoffs IF they beat Pittsburgh. 3-3 gets them in ~90% of the time regardless of who the wins come against. I don't see it ... Not unless all the other contenders do just a poorly. On 11/19/2019 at 9:29 PM, EmotionallyUnstable said: Disclaimers: I am not sure who owns tie breakers, and am not willing to do the leg work on which 5th or 6th team has the H2H advantage in a hypothetical situation that probably won’t ever happen. AFC tiebreakers: Indianapolis is ahead of Houston in the AFC South based on head to head (1-0). Houston is ahead of Oakland based on head to head (1-0). Pittsburgh is ahead of Tennessee based on conference record (4-3 to the Titans' 3-4). Cleveland is ahead of Jacksonville based on conference record (Browns' 4-3 to the Jaguars' 4-4). Denver is ahead of the N.Y. Jets based on conference record (3-4 to the Jets' 0-6). On 11/20/2019 at 5:52 AM, CSBill said: I think we root for the Texans, because if we win Sunday, we would hold a tie-breaker over the Colts the rest of the season (common opponents--according to another thread) Or, "just win baby" that beats all tie-breakers Give the Colts the Div and let HOU sink. Based on conference Wins Buffalo has a much better W/L ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auburnbillsbacker Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 (edited) There is a 46% chance that the Bills make the playoffs according to this nfl.com video. http://www.nfl.com/videos/game-theory/0ap3000001079033/Game-Theory-Every-team-s-chance-to-make-playoffs-as-of-Week-12 Edited November 21, 2019 by auburnbillsbacker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 57 minutes ago, auburnbillsbacker said: There is a 46% chance that the Bills make the playoffs according to this nfl.com video. http://www.nfl.com/videos/game-theory/0ap3000001079033/Game-Theory-Every-team-s-chance-to-make-playoffs-as-of-Week-12 Statistics.. You got to love them, and by that I mean they are useless. 46% to 80% that's not a small margin of error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorkScrewHill Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 I am not cool enough to be able to start a thread .. .. so I thought this was the best place to put this. Mohammed Sanu to be out potentially several weeks. Anything to hurt the Patriots is appreciated. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/patriots-mohamed-sanu-expected-to-miss-battle-with-cowboys-could-reportedly-be-sidelined-a-few-weeks/. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 NYT https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html 66% 2 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said: I am not cool enough to be able to start a thread .. .. so I thought this was the best place to put this. Mohammed Sanu to be out potentially several weeks. Anything to hurt the Patriots is appreciated. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/patriots-mohamed-sanu-expected-to-miss-battle-with-cowboys-could-reportedly-be-sidelined-a-few-weeks/. Thank You. well sort of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 Not that I'm a fan of Buffalo Rumblings but they do have some good things to post https://sports.yahoo.com/m/78cffebe-a642-32cc-a5df-bf19a768bbea/afc-playoff-picture%3A-bills.html Buffalo Bills (7-3) over Denver Broncos (3-7) Sunday, November 24, 1:00 PM Eastern If the Bills want to make the postseason, all they have to do is beat the teams with worse records than them. They have four such games remaining and only need to win three, in all likelihood. It starts this week with a struggling offense at home against the Broncos. Playoff Odds: Bills up to 66% chance of postseason berth The Buffalo Bills maintained a healthy lead in the AFC playoff race with their win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. With their 7-3 record, they have a 66% chance of making the playoffs according to the New York Times Playoff Simulator. That's up from 60% a week ago but down from 72%, where they sat before the loss to the Cleveland Browns. According to the Times, Buffalo only has a 3% chance of winning the AFC East, a disappointing number. Even if Buffalo beats the New England Patriots in Week 16, the number only climbs slightly to 8%, but it would dramatically impact their overall chances of making the playoffs. A win on Sunday boosts Buffalo chances to 78%, but a loss drops them to just 48%, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 I’m thinking we root for Houston, in order to push Indy down ever further... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 On 11/19/2019 at 10:44 AM, SlimShady'sGhost said: In past seasons, at the midway point,the Bills were always chasing the WC. This season they have control of the WC. Just Win Baby!!! Yeah it wasn't long ago we would already be trying to convince ourselves that we can win out the next 6 and 2 other teams could lose 2 more games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, RiotAct said: I’m thinking we root for Houston, in order to push Indy down ever further... Nope. Thats the opposite of what we want Full AFC Playoff Standings 1. New England Patriots (9-1) 2. Baltimore Ravens (8-2) 3. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) 4. Indianapolis Colts (6-4, head-to-head win over HOU) 5. Buffalo Bills (7-3) 6. Houston Texans (6-4, head-to-head loss to IND, head-to-head win over OAK) You / We want Houston to fall further down the ladder Edited November 21, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 AND The LAST thing we need to see is a Houston Indy TIE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 wow you’re right; I completely forgot that Indy is currently leading the AFCS. What a weak division. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 I actually think the Jets have a good shot to upset the Raiders. WC team coming east for a 1:00 game. Gut feeling no other reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 49 minutes ago, RiotAct said: wow you’re right; I completely forgot that Indy is currently leading the AFCS. What a weak division. Weak?. Tough Inter division competition might fit better. Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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