Reader Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 I stumbled upon 538's bizarre quarterback graph. They think Allen is the 2nd best QB in the division being slightly below average. There are some other, interesting tidbits in there. 538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, Reader said: I stumbled upon 538's bizarre quarterback graph. They think Allen is the 2nd best QB in the division being slightly below average. There are some other, interesting tidbits in there. 538 Big surprises for me are Jared Goff at 145 and Kirk Cousins at 171, just at a quick glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 That chart, if going by last week’s games, is suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 Results actually seem pretty reasonable. Interesting that Mayfield and Allen are in a dead heat tie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Reader said: I stumbled upon 538's bizarre quarterback graph. They think Allen is the 2nd best QB in the division being slightly below average. There are some other, interesting tidbits in there. 538 He's 2nd out of 10(Darnold came in 4th behind Fitz?) so I'm going to guess they're might be something throwing the average off(Brady). Then comparing him to other divisions he's tied with Baker Mayfield and Mitchel Trubisky and 1pt higher than Lamar Jackson and Derek Carr. Edited September 11, 2019 by Warcodered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, Reader said: I stumbled upon 538's bizarre quarterback graph. They think Allen is the 2nd best QB in the division being slightly below average. There are some other, interesting tidbits in there. 538 You have to look into their methodology to see where/why this happens. This is all data driven:Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression between ESPN’s Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses. The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 Keenum above Stafford? Roethlisberger over Brady? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reader Posted September 11, 2019 Author Share Posted September 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Keenum above Stafford? Roethlisberger over Brady? Allen is tied for 17th I think, and I think he and about 6-8 more quarterbacks are ahead of Goff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Reader said: Allen is tied for 17th I think, and I think he and about 6-8 more quarterbacks are ahead of Goff. Very strange chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StHustle Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 Mahomes best QB in the league? Ok I can buy that. Big Ben a close second???? GTFOH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said: The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3 I refuse to take up a hobby that involves more work than Grade 11 Algebra. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 43 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said: You have to look into their methodology to see where/why this happens. This is all data driven:Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression between ESPN’s Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses. The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3 I guess my remaining question is where do these multipliers on each of these stats come from? Not to get too meta, but i’d rather know the thinking behind the formula itself, rather than just the formula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 This data was published before the season started, so it does not include Week 1 results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big C Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 23 minutes ago, cage said: This data was published before the season started, so it does not include Week 1 results The page says it was updated today. Not totally sure how to read that, but nothing too crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said: You have to look into their methodology to see where/why this happens. This is all data driven:Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression between ESPN’s Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses. The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3 A number of variables, which I agree is needed to evaluate a QB. I’d like to know why each variable is weighted by a specific amount. How was that determined? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RememberTheRockpile Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said: You have to look into their methodology to see where/why this happens. This is all data driven:Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression between ESPN’s Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses. The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3 It isn't "data driven" as ESPN's Total QBR is loaded with subjective judgements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BidsJr Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 2 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: I refuse to take up a hobby that involves more work than Grade 11 Algebra. Wait didn't Algebra happen in 7th grade? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 3 hours ago, GoBills808 said: That chart, if going by last week’s games, is suspect If I understand what they're doing, it's a statistical model based on a bunch of stuff, but for QB it uses a 10 game rolling average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: If I understand what they're doing, it's a statistical model based on a bunch of stuff, but for QB it uses a 10 game rolling average I wonder if they weight playoff games differently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: I wonder if they weight playoff games differently They try to be transparent, I just don't have the patience to wade through it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaBu Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 4 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: I refuse to take up a hobby that involves more work than Grade 11 Algebra. But this is just 5th grade math, at least where I went to school. ➕ ➖ ✖️ ➗ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Interesting. Allen has a higher score than Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, and Jackson. 5 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said: Big surprises for me are Jared Goff at 145 and Kirk Cousins at 171, just at a quick glance. I got made fun of for saying Goff is not a great QB back when he got his new contract. I've watched quite a bit of him and I think he is a good QB, just not great, and I kind of doubt he will ever be great. He doesn't have that clutch gamer ability. Can't put the team on his back. So I'm not surprised his score is average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 7 hours ago, Reader said: I stumbled upon 538's bizarre quarterback graph. They think Allen is the 2nd best QB in the division being slightly below average. There are some other, interesting tidbits in there. 538 Who else would be second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefenseWins Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, BidsJr said: Wait didn't Algebra happen in 7th grade? Back when I was in HS (admittedly quite a # of years ago now) Math 11 was Trigonometry. Math 10 was Geometry and I believe Math 9 was Algebra. Math 12 was Calculus... Edited September 12, 2019 by DefenseWins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 6 hours ago, MJS said: Interesting. Allen has a higher score than Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, and Jackson. I got made fun of for saying Goff is not a great QB back when he got his new contract. I've watched quite a bit of him and I think he is a good QB, just not great, and I kind of doubt he will ever be great. He doesn't have that clutch gamer ability. Can't put the team on his back. So I'm not surprised his score is average. I tend to agree that he's more of a good QB than great, nothing stands out about his game to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 8 hours ago, BidsJr said: Wait didn't Algebra happen in 7th grade? The Grade 11 turned it up a notch. Further, at that age, we were able to handle the hammers and chisels for the stone tablets that much easier. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreggTX Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Results on many stats are skewed after just 1 game. They saw what I saw -- A QB whose accuracy and ball placement looked much better that made several bonead plays. His "bonehead" plays all came after he'd been flushed from the pocket or under duress. The OL will get better and when Josh wasn't hurried, he was throwing dimes. He needs to handle pressure better. No one is better when they're running for their life, but handling it well is still a competitive advantage. An incomplete pass is better than a sack, or worse, a pick. He needs to learn to always put 2 hands on the ball before taking a hit. It will come for him. At least now that I know that he can aim, I like his chances better. Let's see how Allen looks in week 2. Big games for Zay and Isaiah against the Giants #3 & #4 DB's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 13 hours ago, GoBills808 said: Keenum above Stafford? Roethlisberger over Brady? Since it seems like their formula is influenced by QBR in some way, over the past 10 games: Big Ben: 65.52 Brady: 65.09 Keenum: 53.96 Stafford: 50.96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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