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538 Quarterback chart

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I stumbled upon 538's bizarre quarterback graph. They think Allen is the 2nd best QB in the division being slightly below average. There are some other, interesting tidbits in there.

 

538

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4 minutes ago, Reader said:

I stumbled upon 538's bizarre quarterback graph. They think Allen is the 2nd best QB in the division being slightly below average. There are some other, interesting tidbits in there.

 

538

Big surprises for me are Jared Goff at 145 and Kirk Cousins at 171, just at a quick glance.

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19 minutes ago, Reader said:

I stumbled upon 538's bizarre quarterback graph. They think Allen is the 2nd best QB in the division being slightly below average. There are some other, interesting tidbits in there.

 

538

He's 2nd out of 10(Darnold came in 4th behind Fitz😂) so I'm going to guess they're might be something throwing the average off(Brady). Then comparing him to other divisions he's tied with Baker Mayfield and Mitchel Trubisky and 1pt higher than Lamar Jackson and Derek Carr.

Edited by Warcodered

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25 minutes ago, Reader said:

I stumbled upon 538's bizarre quarterback graph. They think Allen is the 2nd best QB in the division being slightly below average. There are some other, interesting tidbits in there.

 

538

You have to look into their methodology to see where/why this happens. This is all data driven:

Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression between ESPN’s Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses.

  • The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3

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3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Keenum above Stafford? Roethlisberger over Brady?

 

Allen is tied for 17th I think, and I think he and about 6-8 more quarterbacks are ahead of Goff.

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1 minute ago, Reader said:

 

Allen is tied for 17th I think, and I think he and about 6-8 more quarterbacks are ahead of Goff.

Very strange chart

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25 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

  • The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3

I refuse to take up a hobby that involves more work than Grade 11 Algebra.

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43 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

You have to look into their methodology to see where/why this happens. This is all data driven:

Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression between ESPN’s Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses.

  • The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3

 

I guess my remaining question is where do these multipliers on each of these stats come from? Not to get too meta, but i’d rather know the thinking behind the formula itself, rather than just the formula. 

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This data was published before the season started, so it does not include Week 1 results

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23 minutes ago, cage said:

This data was published before the season started, so it does not include Week 1 results

 

The page says it was updated today.

 

Not totally sure how to read that, but nothing too crazy. 

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1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

You have to look into their methodology to see where/why this happens. This is all data driven:

Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression between ESPN’s Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses.

  • The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3

A number of variables, which I agree is needed to evaluate a QB.  I’d like to know why  each variable is weighted by a specific amount.  How was that determined?

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1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

You have to look into their methodology to see where/why this happens. This is all data driven:

Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression between ESPN’s Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses.

  • The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3

It isn't "data driven" as ESPN's Total QBR is loaded with subjective judgements. 

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2 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

I refuse to take up a hobby that involves more work than Grade 11 Algebra.

 

Wait didn't Algebra happen in 7th grade?

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3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

That chart, if going by last week’s games, is suspect 

 

If I understand what they're doing, it's a statistical model based on a bunch of stuff, but for QB it uses a 10 game rolling average

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If I understand what they're doing, it's a statistical model based on a bunch of stuff, but for QB it uses a 10 game rolling average

I wonder if they weight playoff games differently

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4 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

I refuse to take up a hobby that involves more work than Grade 11 Algebra.

 

But this is just 5th grade math, at least where I went to school.      ✖️    :)

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Interesting. Allen has a higher score than Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, and Jackson.

5 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Big surprises for me are Jared Goff at 145 and Kirk Cousins at 171, just at a quick glance.

 

I got made fun of for saying Goff is not a great QB back when he got his new contract. I've watched quite a bit of him and I think he is a good QB, just not great, and I kind of doubt he will ever be great. He doesn't have that clutch gamer ability. Can't put the team on his back. So I'm not surprised his score is average.

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7 hours ago, Reader said:

I stumbled upon 538's bizarre quarterback graph. They think Allen is the 2nd best QB in the division being slightly below average. There are some other, interesting tidbits in there.

 

538

 

Who else would be second

 

 

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5 hours ago, BidsJr said:

 

Wait didn't Algebra happen in 7th grade?

 

Back when I was in HS (admittedly quite a # of years ago now) Math 11 was Trigonometry. Math 10 was Geometry and I believe Math 9 was Algebra. Math 12 was Calculus...

 

Edited by DefenseWins

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6 hours ago, MJS said:

Interesting. Allen has a higher score than Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, and Jackson.

 

I got made fun of for saying Goff is not a great QB back when he got his new contract. I've watched quite a bit of him and I think he is a good QB, just not great, and I kind of doubt he will ever be great. He doesn't have that clutch gamer ability. Can't put the team on his back. So I'm not surprised his score is average.

I tend to agree that he's more of a good QB than great, nothing stands out about his game to me.

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