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2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Some states allow independents to vote in the primary. 

 

But this conflation is because we're talking past one another, and about two topics at once. Joe has no chance to win the general. That's a lock. Joe may win the primary, only because as we learned in 2016 it's not a fair system. Its rigged and will be rigged again to favor the establishment candidate (which Joe is -- but he's not the only one). 

 

If he survives the primary, which I doubt, he'll have zero shot to win those independents back. None. Joe isn't a great uniter. He's not a good politician. He's a puppet who has no idea how to win a presidential campaign as he's proved 2x in the past already. 

 

I think you grossly underestimate how unpopular Donald Trump is and you grossly underestimate how many voters there are that don't vote in primaries.

 

In Iowa in 2016 roughly 350,000 votes were cast in the Democratic and Republican caucuses. In the general election, 1.4 million people voted. An increase of over 1 million people. 

 

I think Trump needs everything to go right in a year's time like it did in 2016. The Democrats in 2016 were way too arrogant in assuming Hilary would win. This time they won't make the same mistakes, and they'll pour all of their resources into flipping Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (three states Trump collectively won by roughly 70k votes). 

 

Saying Biden, who leads Trump by 10 or more points in essentially every poll, has no chance is just crazy talk at this point. 

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Just now, jrober38 said:

 

I think you grossly underestimate how unpopular Donald Trump is and you grossly underestimate how many voters there are that don't vote in primaries.

 

You're correct this is the crux of the issue. One of us is being lied to, tremendously. One isn't. 

 

We'll find out for sure in 2020, but I wouldn't want to be banking on anything which comes from proven liars and narrative engineers in the MSM -- which is where that whole "Trump is unpopular" stems from. There is a silent majority who is pissed and seething -- not about Trump, but about the assault on this country's philosophical foundation. 

 

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

In Iowa in 2016 roughly 350,000 votes were cast in the Democratic and Republican caucuses. In the general election, 1.4 million people voted. An increase of over 1 million people. 

 

Trump is going to win the general for clarity. The DNC primary is rigged and thus not as predictable. 

 

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

I think Trump needs everything to go right in a year's time like it did in 2016. The Democrats in 2016 were way too arrogant in assuming Hilary would win. This time they won't make the same mistakes, and they'll pour all of their resources into flipping Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (three states Trump collectively won by roughly 70k votes). 

 

They won't be too arrogant -- yet you and others (and mainly the media) keep pushing polls which show Trump's getting thumped. The same polls that were wrong/misleading the last time. 


The DNC is bleeding money, and being forced to spend more in states they had secured last time. 

The GOP is flush with twice the war chest they had last time, plus a better information outreach program to Trump supporters. 

 

Trump's gaining ground in blue states while the DNC is cratering in popularity. 

 

Trump will win in a walk in 2020. Mark it down. 

 

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Saying Biden, who leads Trump by 10 or more points in essentially every poll, has no chance is just crazy talk at this point. 

 

I say believing polls which we know are cooked, being pushed by people who we now know lied to our faces for three years about Trump/Russia conspiracy, is crazy. 

 

But that's me. 

 

I go by facts and reality, not talking points or propaganda.

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5 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

You're correct this is the crux of the issue. One of us is being lied to, tremendously. One isn't. 

 

We'll find out for sure in 2020, but I wouldn't want to be banking on anything which comes from proven liars and narrative engineers in the MSM -- which is where that whole "Trump is unpopular" stems from. There is a silent majority who is pissed and seething -- not about Trump, but about the assault on this country's philosophical foundation. 

 

 

Trump is going to win the general for clarity. The DNC primary is rigged and thus not as predictable. 

 

 

They won't be too arrogant -- yet you and others (and mainly the media) keep pushing polls which show Trump's getting thumped. The same polls that were wrong/misleading the last time. 


The DNC is bleeding money, and being forced to spend more in states they had secured last time. 

The GOP is flush with twice the war chest they had last time, plus a better information outreach program to Trump supporters. 

 

Trump's gaining ground in blue states while the DNC is cratering in popularity. 

 

Trump will win in a walk in 2020. Mark it down. 

 

 

I say believing polls which we know are cooked, being pushed by people who we now know lied to our faces for three years about Trump/Russia conspiracy, is crazy. 

 

But that's me. 

 

I go by facts and reality, not talking points or propaganda.

 

You don't appear to have any facts or stats, or any understanding whatsoever of how a national poll works. 

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1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

You don't appear to have any facts or stats, or any understanding whatsoever of how a national poll works. 

 

Incorrect. I have plenty of experience in polling and studying it’s strengths and weaknesses. I’m very involved in CA politics — I know the feelings well on both sides of the aisle from the people doing the work on the ground. 

 

On the other hand, I bet you still consume news from the MSM even after they’ve been exposed as liars. 

 

One of us will be wildly wrong. The other won’t be.   

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25 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I think you grossly underestimate how unpopular Donald Trump is and you grossly underestimate how many voters there are that don't vote in primaries.

 

In Iowa in 2016 roughly 350,000 votes were cast in the Democratic and Republican caucuses. In the general election, 1.4 million people voted. An increase of over 1 million people. 

 

I think Trump needs everything to go right in a year's time like it did in 2016. The Democrats in 2016 were way too arrogant in assuming Hilary would win. This time they won't make the same mistakes, and they'll pour all of their resources into flipping Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (three states Trump collectively won by roughly 70k votes). 

 

Saying Biden, who leads Trump by 10 or more points in essentially every poll, has no chance is just crazy talk at this point. 

 

I think you’re reporting to confirmation biases.  You think he’s wildly unpopular because he’s wildly unpopular with people you talk to, and he’s reported to be wildly unpopular by media and pop culture figures he’s wildly unpopular with.

 

They've been saying the same things for more than three years, beating that propaganda drum publicly; but behind closed doors they’re absolutely terrified, which is why the steady stream of propaganda continues uninterrupted.

 

To be clear, I don’t like Trump. He has a nasty authoritarian streak which would repulse me in any other environment.  In a normal election cycle he’d have my “hold my nose” vote based to two issues:  his war on the global and domestic modern human slave trade, and child sex slavery; and his anti-globalism.  In this environment I will enthusiastically vote for him because infanticide, forced gun confiscation, the Green New Deal, open borders, free college and healthcare for illegals, guilty until proven innocent, unpersoning/deplatforming of conservatives, unisex children’s locker rooms, normalization of pedophelia, etc. are so abhorrent that I’m literally willing to shoot people over a good deal of them if push comes to shove.

 

Covington was enlightening.  Kavanaugh was enlightening.  Hell yes we’re coming for your guns was enlightening.  A coup attempt was enlightening.  Epstein and his merry horde of kiddie ***** was enlightening.

 

You think people see these things and say, “Ya know what, I pulled for Trump in the last cycle, and my 401k has doubled, but I just don’t want to live in a world where people who rape kids go to prison, so Democrats from now on!”

 

That’s an insane thing to believe; and it means that you’re overlooking the overwhelming majority of the country, which is exactly what they want you to do.

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3 hours ago, TakeYouToTasker said:

 

I think you’re reporting to confirmation biases.  You think he’s wildly unpopular because he’s wildly unpopular with people you talk to, and he’s reported to be wildly unpopular by media and pop culture figures he’s wildly unpopular with.

 

They've been saying the same things for more than three years, beating that propaganda drum publicly; but behind closed doors they’re absolutely terrified, which is why the steady stream of propaganda continues uninterrupted.

 

To be clear, I don’t like Trump. He has a nasty authoritarian streak which would repulse me in any other environment.  In a normal election cycle he’d have my “hold my nose” vote based to two issues:  his war on the global and domestic modern human slave trade, and child sex slavery; and his anti-globalism.  In this environment I will enthusiastically vote for him because infanticide, forced gun confiscation, the Green New Deal, open borders, free college and healthcare for illegals, guilty until proven innocent, unpersoning/deplatforming of conservatives, unisex children’s locker rooms, normalization of pedophelia, etc. are so abhorrent that I’m literally willing to shoot people over a good deal of them if push comes to shove.

 

Covington was enlightening.  Kavanaugh was enlightening.  Hell yes we’re coming for your guns was enlightening.  A coup attempt was enlightening.  Epstein and his merry horde of kiddie ***** was enlightening.

 

You think people see these things and say, “Ya know what, I pulled for Trump in the last cycle, and my 401k has doubled, but I just don’t want to live in a world where people who rape kids go to prison, so Democrats from now on!”

 

That’s an insane thing to believe; and it means that you’re overlooking the overwhelming majority of the country, which is exactly what they want you to do.

 

I'm going off the polls.


When Trump took office, his disapproval rating was around 40%. After 3 months it's consistently been in the 51-56% range and his approval rating can't get above 42%. 

 

Despite what some people think. the polls in 2016 were accurate. National polls said Hilary would win by about 3 points just before the election, and she won the popular vote by 2 points. If current polls hold Trump is going to be destroyed in the next election. You can't trail by 10 points in the popular vote and have any hope of winning.

 

With regards to savings, 58% of Americans have less than $1000 saved in the bank. They haven't seen anything double over the past 2.5 years because they don't have any money. Trump cut taxes, and with that money corporations have mostly just bought back stock and have invested hardly any of their savings into capital projects. Most of the benefits in the Trump economy have gone to corporations and the top 1%. Wages have mostly been kept in check, as has been the case for about 40 years. The stock market has done great, but most Americans have limited exposure to the markets. 

 

This upcoming election is going to be very interesting. Trump's base loved him, but a ton of people (likely more than 50% of the country) hate him. Biden (not my preference) is an easy choice for a lot of people because I think the perception is he won't screw anything up. He's not going to spook the markets, he's not going to revolutionize healthcare, etc. His platform will cater entirely to independent voters who can't stand Trump on a moral basis, and hardcore democrats will come along as well because they can't stand Trump for four more years. 

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4 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

You don't appear to have any facts or stats, or any understanding whatsoever of how a national poll works. 

 

I think you need to look at polls state by state.  It is, after all, an electoral college system.

Here are two Wisconsin poll results from Wisconsin in early November, 2016. They don’t support your assertion. Both had Clinton winning.   And I’d add that nobody liked Trump in 2016, either. 

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5976.html

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/

 

 

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1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

I'm going off the polls.


When Trump took office, his disapproval rating was around 40%. After 3 months it's consistently been in the 51-56% range and his approval rating can't get above 42%. 

 

Despite what some people think. the polls in 2016 were accurate. National polls said Hilary would win by about 3 points just before the election, and she won the popular vote by 2 points. If current polls hold Trump is going to be destroyed in the next election. You can't trail by 10 points in the popular vote and have any hope of winning.

 

With regards to savings, 58% of Americans have less than $1000 saved in the bank. They haven't seen anything double over the past 2.5 years because they don't have any money. Trump cut taxes, and with that money corporations have mostly just bought back stock and have invested hardly any of their savings into capital projects. Most of the benefits in the Trump economy have gone to corporations and the top 1%. Wages have mostly been kept in check, as has been the case for about 40 years. The stock market has done great, but most Americans have limited exposure to the markets. 

 

This upcoming election is going to be very interesting. Trump's base loved him, but a ton of people (likely more than 50% of the country) hate him. Biden (not my preference) is an easy choice for a lot of people because I think the perception is he won't screw anything up. He's not going to spook the markets, he's not going to revolutionize healthcare, etc. His platform will cater entirely to independent voters who can't stand Trump on a moral basis, and hardcore democrats will come along as well because they can't stand Trump for four more years. 

 

Polls are not used to gauge public sentiment, they’re a PsyOp used to manipulate.

 

If you’re poll watching, you’re wrong.

 

Further, statistics are empty.  Raw population data is irrelevant, and even if it weren’t, employment across the board for minorities and women is at an all time high, and low end wage growth is accelerating.  At the same time blue collar workers are directly benefitting from the economy.  They have job security, and the 32% of Americans who have 401k savings are seeing their retirement benefits spike against a backdrop of perceived economic anemia in which they were told their jobs weren’t coming back.

 

These are people who were told they didn’t matter, and were called racist #######s in the last cycle.  They voted Trump anyway, have seen massive benefit for doing so, and are now being called literal Nazi’s by people who rape kids and murder infants.

 

If you think these people have been swayed, you’re nuts.  At the same time the left’s waging of raw culture war has been redpilling people en masse.

 

One of the side effects of the culture war being waged, and the hatefulness of the left tearing down people, with their willingness to destroy lives over political disagreement, and calls to open violence...  do you believe Trump supporters are extremely likely to share their views?

 

You’re in for a rude awakening.

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Polls will be even more skewed now because only far-left liberals will answer them.  Everyone else fears getting targeted by the PC mob. It's so prevalent it even got a name recently; "cancel culture."

 

THat is what happened in 2016 and it's gotten worse since then. People went silent, and voted in secret. It's also the reason why many on the left have started to call for open elections, so they can black-list the wrong-thinkers.

 

 

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19 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

Again, this is from the Times. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/15/opinion/joe-biden.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

 

Joe has no chance to win. They don't want him, won't accept him as the candidate, and darn sure won't turn out for him in a general. 

 

Let me ask you a question. If he does win the nomination is there someone he could pick as his VP that could change this?  

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2 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Let me ask you a question. If he does win the nomination is there someone he could pick as his VP that could change this?  

 

His campaign wanted Abrams for this reason. She rejected their offer. It has to be a woman of color to appease the racist identity politics lovers who comprise the progressive left — Harris won’t do it. Not sure there’s anyone who would.  

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1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

His campaign wanted Abrams for this reason. She rejected their offer. It has to be a woman of color to appease the racist identity politics lovers who comprise the progressive left — Harris won’t do it. Not sure there’s anyone who would.  

 

Alexandria

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1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

His campaign wanted Abrams for this reason. She rejected their offer. It has to be a woman of color to appease the racist identity politics lovers who comprise the progressive left — Harris won’t do it. Not sure there’s anyone who would.  

 

Dammit.  That means I'm going to be even more racist for not voting for a candidate who belongs to a party I'm absolutely boycotting.  

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2 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

His campaign wanted Abrams for this reason. She rejected their offer. It has to be a woman of color to appease the racist identity politics lovers who comprise the progressive left — Harris won’t do it. Not sure there’s anyone who would.  

Michelle? If 44 isn't exposed beforehand they'd win pretty big with her and there's no way he'd last a full term. That's reason for her to hold her nose and accept the VP role. She'd be in the WH for a decade and the Republic would be destroyed. 

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If Democratic Party leaders aren’t re-watching last week’s debate in Houston, they should. If they have watched it and aren’t freaking out over what they see, it’s fair to ask  whether they actually want Donald Trump to win a second term. That session was a debacle for the party and the field: Nearly three tortuous hours of tails wagging dogs, petty sniping, and a lack of vision all the Lasik surgery in the world couldn’t cure.

 

The knock from Republicans, Never-Trumpers, and moderate Democrats is that most of the 2020 candidates are too far to the left and out of touch. Last week’s display confirmed it. This was a definitive example of a party controlled by its fringe elements, preferring purity over victory.

 

Houston featured a grab bag of turn-offs for independent voters.

 

First, the elitist policy prescriptions put forth by most of the candidates have the dubious distinction of being out of step with most Americans while also being hugely expensive.

 

Next, the field displayed an inability to understand that their words will reach the ears of all who will vote next November, not just those that show up to snowy Iowa churches in February.

 

More at the link:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Political Cartoons by AF Branco

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, B-Man said:
 

 

If Democratic Party leaders aren’t re-watching last week’s debate in Houston, they should. If they have watched it and aren’t freaking out over what they see, it’s fair to ask  whether they actually want Donald Trump to win a second term. That session was a debacle for the party and the field: Nearly three tortuous hours of tails wagging dogs, petty sniping, and a lack of vision all the Lasik surgery in the world couldn’t cure.

 

The knock from Republicans, Never-Trumpers, and moderate Democrats is that most of the 2020 candidates are too far to the left and out of touch. Last week’s display confirmed it. This was a definitive example of a party controlled by its fringe elements, preferring purity over victory.

 

Houston featured a grab bag of turn-offs for independent voters.

 

First, the elitist policy prescriptions put forth by most of the candidates have the dubious distinction of being out of step with most Americans while also being hugely expensive.

 

Next, the field displayed an inability to understand that their words will reach the ears of all who will vote next November, not just those that show up to snowy Iowa churches in February.

 

More at the link:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Political Cartoons by AF Branco

 

 

 

 

 

The thing is, since it's primary season they are all lurching left to curry favor from the progressive wing, for which could provide a small advantage in the primary polls. Whether or not they believe most of the crap they are spewing is almost besides the point.

In the general election, they will make a hard turn back towards the center, hoping to get the moderate voter who hasn't been paying much attention to what they were saying before. The media will help them appear more centrist and won't hold them accountable to what they said previously, because #orangeman bad.

 

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20 minutes ago, Gavin in Va Beach said:

 

The thing is, since it's primary season they are all lurching left to curry favor from the progressive wing, for which could provide a small advantage in the primary polls. Whether or not they believe most of the crap they are spewing is almost besides the point.

In the general election, they will make a hard turn back towards the center, hoping to get the moderate voter who hasn't been paying much attention to what they were saying before. The media will help them appear more centrist and won't hold them accountable to what they said previously, because #orangeman bad.

 

 

There's a chance we're in "But this time it's different!" territory now, though.  There's a certain set of progressives that simply won't show up at the polls if the candidate swerves centrist this time - just as a set didn't show up for Hillary when the DNC ***** over Bernie in 2016.  But this set is already disenchanted with the entire system, and would be happy to burn it down to get what they "deserve," so not showing up for an election they fundamentally do not believe is honest or representative of them isn't much of a stretch.

 

The Democrats may truly have a tiger by the tail this time, and be unable to let go.

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23 minutes ago, Gavin in Va Beach said:

 

The thing is, since it's primary season they are all lurching left to curry favor from the progressive wing, for which could provide a small advantage in the primary polls. Whether or not they believe most of the crap they are spewing is almost besides the point.

In the general election, they will make a hard turn back towards the center, hoping to get the moderate voter who hasn't been paying much attention to what they were saying before. The media will help them appear more centrist and won't hold them accountable to what they said previously, because #orangeman bad.

 

Of course they will try to turn back to the center for the general, but with all the stupidshit that they've said is thrown back at them via video they'll have a difficult time in doing so.

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17 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Of course they will try to turn back to the center for the general, but with all the stupidshit that they've said is thrown back at them via video they'll have a difficult time in doing so.

The thing you guys are missing is that ALL of the remaining candidates have gone left. You can’t put a sheet of paper between ANY of them. I have no idea how their primary voters are going to make decision between any of them.

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8 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The thing you guys are missing is that ALL of the remaining candidates have gone left. You can’t put a sheet of paper between ANY of them. I have no idea how their primary voters are going to make decision between any of them.

 

Simple.  They'll vote who they're told to vote for.

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SNL Hits Nail On The Head With DNC Debate Skit

 

There aren’t a whole lot of laughs coming out of SNL’s political sketches these days. One has the impression the writers are a bit more demoralized than usual. With the constant drumbeat of hysteria from the Left, it’s easy to believe they simply don’t have much feeling left in their funny bones.

 

But every once in a while the crew of the long-running sketch show can’t ignore the news cycle and actually come up with something funny. On Saturday’s episode, SNL took on the lates round of Democrat debates, and some of the impressions are spot on. Most notable is surprise guest alumni Maya Rudolph, who does a send-up of Kamala Harris that is simultaneously eerily accurate and gloriously over the top.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, B-Man said:

SNL Hits Nail On The Head With DNC Debate Skit

 

There aren’t a whole lot of laughs coming out of SNL’s political sketches these days. One has the impression the writers are a bit more demoralized than usual. With the constant drumbeat of hysteria from the Left, it’s easy to believe they simply don’t have much feeling left in their funny bones.

 

But every once in a while the crew of the long-running sketch show can’t ignore the news cycle and actually come up with something funny. On Saturday’s episode, SNL took on the lates round of Democrat debates, and some of the impressions are spot on. Most notable is surprise guest alumni Maya Rudolph, who does a send-up of Kamala Harris that is simultaneously eerily accurate and gloriously over the top.

 

 

 

 

That was glorious. Everyone should take the 10 minutes to watch this at some point. A perfect rendition of how each candidate is crazier than the next.

If SNL, who forgot what funny is decades ago, is doing this now, the left is in even worse shape than I had imagined.

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1 hour ago, Hedge said:

 

That was glorious. Everyone should take the 10 minutes to watch this at some point. A perfect rendition of how each candidate is crazier than the next.

If SNL, who forgot what funny is decades ago, is doing this now, the left is in even worse shape than I had imagined.

 

It really needs John Belushi as a "Samurai Candidate," though.  Or even a classic Conehead.

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2 hours ago, Gary Busey said:

whoa right wingers like SNL again?

 

I thought SNL was part of what was leading this country to CIVILWAR

 

 Not too surprisingly Gary having trouble with reading comprehension again. 

 

5 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

There aren’t a whole lot of laughs coming out of SNL’s political sketches these days. One has the impression the writers are a bit more demoralized than usual. With the constant drumbeat of hysteria from the Left, it’s easy to believe they simply don’t have much feeling left in their funny bones.

 

But every once in a while the crew of the long-running sketch show can’t ignore the news cycle and actually come up with something funny. On Saturday’s episode, SNL took on the lates round of Democrat debates, and some of the impressions are spot on. Most notable is surprise guest alumni Maya Rudolph, who does a send-up of Kamala Harris that is simultaneously eerily accurate and gloriously over the top.

 

 

 

 

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On September 17, 2019 at 10:57 AM, Deranged Rhino said:

 

His campaign wanted Abrams for this reason. She rejected their offer. It has to be a woman of color to appease the racist identity politics lovers who comprise the progressive left — Harris won’t do it. Not sure there’s anyone who would.  

Warren is a WOC

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28 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Warren is a WOC

 

Well, 1/1024th WoC.

 

But really, how can we quantify her lifelong struggles in dealing with her non-white racial identity as a very, very, very, very, very small fraction, when her parents had to elope because blah blah blah?!?

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19 hours ago, Gary Busey said:

whoa right wingers like SNL again?

 

I thought SNL was part of what was leading this country to CIVILWAR

The reason right wingers watch SNL is because they want an excuse to be outraged

 

The reason left wingers watch SNL is for positive self reinforcement

 

Nobody watched SNL because it's funny

 

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