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Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh


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10 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

He was the 30th ranked QB in the NFL. Outperformed whose prognosis?

Mayfield, Darnold, and even Rosen were ranked higher.

This is who he outperformed:

image.thumb.png.197c78b7a68ba6f27b1da34fff30ed7d.png

You’re showing the list of the website that Schatz is a part of. Wow, great evidence, and how the hell do believe Rosen was better than Allen. Worst stats, had 3 pick sixes and did nothing dynamic. At least Allen was doing something with his legs and passing other qbs haven’t done. 

7 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

This is what you are using to argue Allen was a good passer last year?

 

Allen compared to no one in the NFL was Elway. 

No, that’s what your saying I said compared to Peterman and Anderson at least he looked like he belong. Are talent level was horrific on all fronts. As a total package, Allen showed things that can make him a stud like Vick

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7 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

Analysts only change their opinions after the mathematical analysis confirms that they should. Whether you follow them in thought or not, you know that's what they do. If you disagree with an opinion of an analyst, you can be right, but you'll be wrong more often than right.

If the above wasn't true, every team wouldn't always be beefing up their analytics department. That's simply how player evaluation is done, now.

 

Good for Schatz if, should Allen's "analytics" improve, he changes his opinion. Not all commentators, even if they base their opinions on "objective standards," will.

 

And there is often room for different interpretations of statistics, or analyses that point in different directions, as anyone who follows such analysis knows. It's not as cut and dried as you characterize it. 

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19 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I'll take a shot.  We want to believe that Josh's improvement, the defenses' all around play and their 4 and 4 record at the close have the Bills starting the off season as a team in the middle third of the league.  He's saying that defensive performance is more random, Josh doesn't have it in him and they really entered the off season as bottom dwelling team.  Thus, all the offseason improvements, while he likes them, do not get them a shot into the upper third of the league.

Are you Aaron’s friend? That paragraph that Happy Quoted is indefensible. Aaron Shatz his pants on that one. 

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20 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Good for Schatz if, should Allen's "analytics" improve, he changes his opinion. Not all commentators, even if they base their opinions on "objective standards," will.

 

And there is often room for different interpretations of statistics, or analyses that point in different directions, as anyone who follows such analysis knows. It's not as cut and dried as you characterize it. 

The thing is Schatz and other analytics guys don't have an opinion, just an interpretation of the data.  If the data changes, they change their assessment.  Conveniently  they are never wrong, and also never right.  Sure Allen's 'numbers' might not indicate he is primed for success.  But the context in which those numbers were produced needs to be considered.  If you believe, as the Bills leadership does, in the 'potential' of Allen and improve the context such as fewer dropped passes and less pressure from the defense then the data may reveal improvement.  Or it may not.  At this point I'm willing to trust the judgment of our GM and HC over some data gathers with a couple spreadsheets.      

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7 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

This is what you are using to argue Allen was a good passer last year?

 

Allen compared to no one in the NFL was Elway. 

No, that’s what your saying I said compared to Peterman and Anderson at least he looked like he belong. Are talent level was horrific on all fronts. As a total package, Allen showed things that can make him a stud like Vick 

37 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Good for Schatz if, should Allen's "analytics" improve, he changes his opinion. Not all commentators, even if they base their opinions on "objective standards," will.

 

And there is often room for different interpretations of statistics, or analyses that point in different directions, as anyone who follows such analysis knows. It's not as cut and dried as you characterize it. 

He said if Allen improved its cause of the talent we brought him to surround him with.  So not good on Schatz. 

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2 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

It’s not shocking that those rankings come from Football Outsiders  Depending on the metric you go by, you’ll find Allen ranked closer to Darnold and higher than Jackson and Rosen.

 

But even going by your logic, a “parody of an NFL QB” probably certainly be ranked lower than 30th.  In no way, would a “parody” be ranked higher than Lamar Jackson, who is “not a parody” right?

 

Also go read the article by Ryan Talbot.  He explains how you could see progress in Allen after coming back from the elbow injury.  Also, a “parody” probably doesn’t lead a team with bad talent around them to a 4-4 record. 

 

Again, not saying that Allen is a great QB yet....but yes he has performed better than the bleak outlook from old man Schatz

 

Because a second rate analytics site like Football Outsiders are right 100% of the time... don’t you know?

 

Something tells me @Kemp is a big fan of Mike Schopp 

 

Total schoop fanboy

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18 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

 

 

Quote

The one thing this board tends to agree on is that the Bills will never really be the team we want them to be without a very good QB at the helm, so there is enormous hope/pressure/concern regarding that state of affairs.

 

 

You could say that about any NFL team.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

Here's your logic:

Elway greatly improved during his career, so Allen will, too.

The very basics of analytics and common sense points out that that makes no sense.

For every Elway, there are 10 other QBs each season that begin their career poorly who don't get any better. What other than your beliefs tell you that Allen will follow a similar arc to Elway?

My comment was more tongue in cheek than anything else. Lighten up. 

 

IMO, Allen showed enough glimpses to suggest he won’t be one of those 10 that doesn’t improve. Especially from a command of the game standpoint. It was obvious that the game was beginning to slow down for him a bit.

 

Not everything he did was a disaster. He made some plays and I choose to give him credit for that rather than act like he never did anything positive at all.

 

He’s got a ways to go, but I like where he is given his experience playing the position and the potential he has shown. 

 

 

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I liked what I saw from Allen last year.  He looked like he belonged out there.  He has to learn to read defenses better, to stay in the pocket more, get rid of the ball quicker and get better Comp %.  He will have a better OL this year, hopefully a better running game, and better receivers.  I like that he is willing to stand in there and take the long ball more than most other QBs in the league.  He may never be a highly accurate passer but I believe he will improve in that category.  I just don't think Allens unique skill level fits the analytical model of what a QB is supposed to be;  his ability to run and his cannon for an arm puts a lot of additional pressure on a defense which Dabol can use to help create mismatches that will help Allen succeed.  If Allen was an average running QB with an average arm the statistics would definitely be less favorable for Allen to succeed.  So I think Allen has a lot more upside than what analytics might imply.  He is an outlier that doesn't fit the mold of what analytics consider for success as an NFL QB.  Let's hope he continues to develop along those lines and still retain what makes him unique.

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I meant to add that Schatz and others of his ilk can only understand things from a statistical point of view. That is extremely limiting.

 

In short, they don’t understand there’s a HUGE difference between being a passer and being a quarterback. 

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15 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

He didn't accomplish anything.

 

They went 6-10 and their offense was bottom of the barrel.

 

Lead the team to a winning record and put up some quality numbers and people will respect him and the Bills... if that's what you care about.

 

Josh went 5-5 in the games he started and finished last year.  Putting the 6-10 record on his is disingenuous.

 

12 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

He was the 30th ranked QB in the NFL. Outperformed whose prognosis?

Mayfield, Darnold, and even Rosen were ranked higher.

This is who he outperformed:

image.thumb.png.197c78b7a68ba6f27b1da34fff30ed7d.png

 

How do Allen's 631 yards and 8 TD's rushing factor into that?  Or is it conveniently ignored?

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38 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Josh went 5-5 in the games he started and finished last year.  Putting the 6-10 record on his is disingenuous.

In addition to disingenuous, it’s specious, egregious, and willfully ignorant (as spoken by Jackie Chiles).

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Never heard of this guy but basically he is correct. If Allen doesn’t get better this team isn't going anywhere.  Eventually he needs to be a pocket passer. I think he will. I think a better OL and WR group will allow him to improve. I’m all in on Allen and have been since before the draft.  I wanted Allen, Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield in that order, but honestly only wanted Allen or Rosen.

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38 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

You're kidding, right?

 

It’s an excuse and not entirely valid like much of his criticism of Allen.  As much as we hate him, Tom Brady is frequently lauded for his work ethic, among other things.  If all QB’s had a strong work ethic, it wouldn’t be a big deal.  

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33 minutes ago, K-9 said:

In addition to disingenuous, it’s specious, egregious, and willfully ignorant (as spoken by Jackie Chiles).

 

I told him not to put the balm on.

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16 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Never heard of this guy but basically he is correct. If Allen doesn’t get better this team isn't going anywhere.  Eventually he needs to be a pocket passer. I think he will. I think a better OL and WR group will allow him to improve. I’m all in on Allen and have been since before the draft.  I wanted Allen, Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield in that order, but honestly only wanted Allen or Rosen.

This can be said of any second year starting QB whose team is on the outside looking in. It’s just the nature of the beast. 

 

He is already a pocket passer. Like all QBs, he needs pockets to work in that don’t collapse in two and a half seconds (the average time it took to sack him according to PFF; shortest time in the league), and, most importantly, he needs to develop more poise and learn to trust in what he sees as the plays develop. It was interesting that when he returned from injury, he wasted no time in taking off. Patience takes time to learn at this level. But he made some plays while the pocket was breaking down that show me he has what it takes. He’s a smart player, his occasional hero ball tendency not withstanding.

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3 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Never heard of this guy but basically he is correct. If Allen doesn’t get better this team isn't going anywhere.  Eventually he needs to be a pocket passer. I think he will. I think a better OL and WR group will allow him to improve. I’m all in on Allen and have been since before the draft.  I wanted Allen, Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield in that order, but honestly only wanted Allen or Rosen.

 

While Josh needs to get better (and I doubt you'd find anyone who says otherwise), he wasn't the only one who needs/needed to get better.  That's what Schatz conveniently ignored, if not pooh-poohed (I think that's what that horrible sentence that was quoted was trying to say, i.e. that the Bills didn't improve as much as fans think they did just because Josh will kill any improvements made, and that's idiotic).  There was also no accounting for Josh getting 3rd team reps prior to the season or the improvement he showed after returning from injury.

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22 hours ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

Have to hope he's all wrong but it is only his 2nd season, and we'll see.

The fail factor for Josh is less going into his 2nd season than going into his first;  however, he could still be a flop.  There's a long list of QB flash in the pans in the National Football League.  To assume he's going to light it up is wishful thinking at this point.  Being a stellar QB in the National Football League happens with less than 1% of the applicants.  Go Bills!!!  

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28 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Work ethic alone wont get you there but he has a ton of other intangibles that I believe also support it including great measurables. 

 

...good call.....and the best part is he vows to work his tail off only to get better.....his quote from a recent interview, "OUR team and OUR family" tells me a helluva lot about this kid.....sure as hell is no "ME" in his repertoire..........

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On 5/25/2019 at 12:11 PM, ScottLaw said:

Not sure why people get up in arms over all this stuff. 

 

These guys do a lot of research on these players and then give a prediction based on their research. It's a nice job to have because it doesn't matter if they are right or wrong, they'll still have a job.... it's just his opinion on a player that happened to be picked by that Bills. It has no barring on if Allen will be successful or not so I never understood why people got pissed over this stuff.

 

 

This is the thing. I highly doubt this guy did any "in depth research" besides looking at who the Bills added in free agency and the draft.

 

Did he actually watch any of last years games to see Allen getting better with each and every game? Not to mention that last Dolphins game in which josh Allen threw for 3 TDs and ran for 2 more! If this were any other team I think the media would have gone batsh!t crazy over Allen!

 

Then most of the top NFL analysts that watched Allen's last few games stated there wasn't a more exciting QB that they would rather watch. That Miami game in which the Dolphins were helpless to stop Allen is a big reason as to why Adam Gase was fired IMO. 

 

Then look at Allen's surrounding cast to see the Bills offensive line was about as bad as it gets last season and the receiving corps had the number two targeted WR catch only 37.1 percent of his targets!  

 

There were real reasons the Bills offensive line coach/run game coordinator was fired and replaced because the Bills line couldn't run block for the RB's for crap and they couldn't pass block worth a damn either. The WR coach was fired and replaced because of so many dropped balls...between Zay Jones and Kelvin Benjamin it was 80 missed targets...80! 

 

This year's offensive line should be immensely improved with a quality veteran NFL experienced center to help call protections. The right side of the line should be greatly upgraded with quality veteran experienced NFL players as should the LG position. (unless they start the rookie Cody Ford at RT/RG)

 

The offensive coaching staff improved, the offensive player talent improved O line, WR, RB,TE.  There are reasons for the majority of people with a brain to see the only way Josh Allen fails this season is if somehow he morphs into Nathan Peterman. Ain't gonna happen!

 

Bills fans should be very excited to see what the 2019 NFL season brings us! 

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Honest question. Do you think you'd still have the same optimism if the season ended at NE? As much as I've altered my stance and become open to the possibility that Allen can be the guy, I still find myself asking that question.

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19 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Honest question. Do you think you'd still have the same optimism if the season ended at NE? As much as I've altered my stance and become open to the possibility that Allen can be the guy, I still find myself asking that question.

 

Darnold's last game was at New England and he played like crap. Do you feel less optimistic about his future?

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33 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Darnold's last game was at New England and he played like crap. Do you feel less optimistic about his future?

I'm actually not a big Darnold guy, but that's a completely fair point. Foxborough is where rookie QB's go to die.

 

My question pertained more to the Miami game where one could argue we were playing against a lame duck opponent. How much does that game factor into the optimism and does it skew perception? To be fair, you'd also have to dismiss the low point at Green Bay.

Edited by LSHMEAB
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4 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Work ethic alone wont get you there but he has a ton of other intangibles that I believe also support it including great measurables. 

Well yes this.....my point was basically when you combine things this is a reason for feeling good about success

 

He is NOT a finished product but how could anyone expect him to be with what he had to work with last year.......

28 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Honest question. Do you think you'd still have the same optimism if the season ended at NE? As much as I've altered my stance and become open to the possibility that Allen can be the guy, I still find myself asking that question.

If you go back and check the games (just trust me on this) you will find that BB OWNS rookie qbs...he just does

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15 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

When you combine it with insane arm talent good things happen

 

you do remember that he comes with insane arm talent and athletism right?

 

Your definition of insane arm talent is he can throw it hard and far. Mine is accuracy and the ability to think fast. By athleticism you mean running?

Again, he might become good, but last season did not serve as an indicator that it's definitely coming.

11 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

It’s not shocking that those rankings come from Football Outsiders  Depending on the metric you go by, you’ll find Allen ranked closer to Darnold and higher than Jackson and Rosen.

 

But even going by your logic, a “parody of an NFL QB” probably certainly be ranked lower than 30th.  In no way, would a “parody” be ranked higher than Lamar Jackson, who is “not a parody” right?

 

Also go read the article by Ryan Talbot.  He explains how you could see progress in Allen after coming back from the elbow injury.  Also, a “parody” probably doesn’t lead a team with bad talent around them to a 4-4 record. 

 

Again, not saying that Allen is a great QB yet....but yes he has performed better than the bleak outlook from old man Schatz

 

Because a second rate analytics site like Football Outsiders are right 100% of the time... don’t you know?

 

Something tells me @Kemp is a big fan of Mike Schopp 

 

Don't know who Schopp is.

 

The 30th ranked QB is a positive indicator?

I don't know anyone involved with analytics who said Allen looked good based on the numbers. If you know of one I would be happy to read their work.

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9 hours ago, Dr. K said:

Good for Schatz if, should Allen's "analytics" improve, he changes his opinion. Not all commentators, even if they base their opinions on "objective standards," will.

 

And there is often room for different interpretations of statistics, or analyses that point in different directions, as anyone who follows such analysis knows. It's not as cut and dried as you characterize it. 

 

Like I told someone else, if you have analytics from a different source that's positive , I'd be happy to read it.

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9 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

The thing is Schatz and other analytics guys don't have an opinion, just an interpretation of the data.  If the data changes, they change their assessment.  Conveniently  they are never wrong, and also never right.  Sure Allen's 'numbers' might not indicate he is primed for success.  But the context in which those numbers were produced needs to be considered.  If you believe, as the Bills leadership does, in the 'potential' of Allen and improve the context such as fewer dropped passes and less pressure from the defense then the data may reveal improvement.  Or it may not.  At this point I'm willing to trust the judgment of our GM and HC over some data gathers with a couple spreadsheets.      

 

Of course they have an opinion. You even knew their opinions before the draft. Mayfield graded out the highest with Allen the lowest (of the top guys).

 

All Head Coaches and GMs now consider the analytics. Every team has a growing analytics department. That doesn't mean they will follow the analytics to every detail, but there's enough evidence now that in every sport, analytics are a pretty good guide to pay attention to. This is no longer a debatable issue.

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8 hours ago, K-9 said:

My comment was more tongue in cheek than anything else. Lighten up. 

 

IMO, Allen showed enough glimpses to suggest he won’t be one of those 10 that doesn’t improve. Especially from a command of the game standpoint. It was obvious that the game was beginning to slow down for him a bit.

 

Not everything he did was a disaster. He made some plays and I choose to give him credit for that rather than act like he never did anything positive at all.

 

He’s got a ways to go, but I like where he is given his experience playing the position and the potential he has shown. 

 

 

 

Sorry, I didn't know it was tongue-in-cheek. That's sometimes tough to see in writing.

I am not disputing that you may turn out to be right about his future, but the odds are against you. I am disputing the notion that he was anywhere near good enough as a passer last year. His support did suck, but he did, too. He has a far better cast this season so he has no excuse to not show big improvement. Can we agree on that?

8 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Josh went 5-5 in the games he started and finished last year.  Putting the 6-10 record on his is disingenuous.

 

 

How do Allen's 631 yards and 8 TD's rushing factor into that?  Or is it conveniently ignored?

 

I don't believe rushing is included, but I'm not disputing he's a good runner. I'm disputing that he was a good passer last season. 

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7 hours ago, Doc said:

 

You're kidding, right?

 

Nope.

 

I suppose a couple have made it to the NFL without it, but I bet they weren't around long.

7 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Never heard of this guy but basically he is correct. If Allen doesn’t get better this team isn't going anywhere.  Eventually he needs to be a pocket passer. I think he will. I think a better OL and WR group will allow him to improve. I’m all in on Allen and have been since before the draft.  I wanted Allen, Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield in that order, but honestly only wanted Allen or Rosen.

 

You still have Mayfield 4th in that group?

6 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...good call.....and the best part is he vows to work his tail off only to get better.....his quote from a recent interview, "OUR team and OUR family" tells me a helluva lot about this kid.....sure as hell is no "ME" in his repertoire..........

 

What an athlete says is totally meaningless. All that matters is how he performs.

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As others have noted the degree to which Allen polarizes these so called QB "experts" is weird.  I can't recall so much venom spewed at a player like that which some of these analytics guys hurl.  My take is they realize that if Allen succeeds it indicates that their precious equations are crap.  And that threatens their paycheck. 

 

As someone who spent a LONG career working in R&D and made use of all sorts of mathematical modeling & analytics techniques the attempt by these guys to model QB performance using analytics is laughable.   There are simply to many variables to make the calculations worth much.  When I see a QBASE score of 37.3% I can't help but be amazed at the arrogance of these guys who believe their calculation is accurate to a TENTH of a DECIMAL PLACE!  Really!   How about "37.3" +/- 50%.  There I fixed it for you Shantz.

 

Allen may not get better then he is.  He may flounder going forward and turn out to be a bust at QB.  He may never be anything other then an average QB in the NFL.  Or he may be the next John Elway.  At this point in his career who knows.  I don't need silly equations to tell me that.  Watching the NFL closely will tell you this.  But anyone who has watched a fair amount of the NFL would say that there is reason for optimism that Allen may in fact be a very good NFL QB.  Using my advanced eyes analytics technique (AEAT) I calculate that there is a 34.5892% chance of Allen being an above average to excellent QB. 

 

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Like I told someone else, if you have analytics from a different source that's positive , I'd be happy to read it.

 

 

In a curious set of circumstances, ESPN and Football Outsiders formed some sort of alliance.  One product of that is Total QBR and I would assume Aaron Schatz had something to do with its creation.  Well, here is the 2018 result with Josh right there with Baker and ahead of some bonafide, highly paid NFL starters.  

 

He could have said that he doesn't see a "traditional" NFL starting QB or a "prototypical" one.  I could agree with that.  He could give him credit for improved play or say his development as a passer is paramount to his future success and it has a long way to go.  Agreed. He could have credited Josh with finding ways to be effective for his team in the midst of a poor, unstable supporting cast as many of us do.  I just found it odd that he is seemingly unmoved from his harsh, predraft assessment.  Josh's rookie year should have moved the dial, imo.

 

 

21 Nick Mullens, SF 5.9 23.6 -2.8 1.8 29.0 334 56.2 54.2
22 Matthew Stafford, DET 1.7 25.8 4.2 4.2 49.2 647 50.9 53.8
23 Baker Mayfield, CLE 9.4 34.8 0.9 3.6 51.5 580 55.7 53.6
24 Josh Allen, BUF 2.9 -1.8 24.1 3.5 35.6 461 52.3 52.2
25 Eli Manning, NYG 2.3 30.2 2.0 2.4 54.8 684 51.2 51.6
26 Alex Smith, WSH 4.6 17.8 5.5 2.9 35.0 422 53.8 49.4
27 Derek Carr, OAK -1.2 27.3 2.5 0.2 50.8 669 49.3 49.0
28 Sam Darnold, NYJ -3.0 23.5 3.3 -1.1 36.6 510 47.9 48.4
29 Case Keenum, DEN -4.0 26.9 4.2 3.5 50.6 685 47.9 46.9
30 Blake Bortles, JAX -8.6 9.3 11.6 -1.6 30.5 515 44.1 45.8
RK PLAYER PTS ADDED PASS RUN PENALTY TOTAL EPA QB PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR
31 Lamar Jackson, BAL -1.2 6.6 13.8 0.4 27.7 338 48.7 45.1
32 Ryan Tannehill, MIA -18.0 -6.3 3.6 0.8 13.4 363 33.1 35.4
33 Josh Rosen, ARI -35.3 -13.6 3.3 1.2 7.9 491 26.6 25.9
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58 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Like I told someone else, if you have analytics from a different source that's positive , I'd be happy to read it.

 

Why would folks waste their time?  Analytics can not proactively predict a young QB's future prospects any better then a beer swilling fan gobbling down chicken wings at the local bar & grill.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Kemp said:

I don't believe rushing is included, but I'm not disputing he's a good runner. I'm disputing that he was a good passer last season. 

 

Are you disputing the state of his OL, WR's and the fact that he was a raw rookie who was thrust into the starting role?  To hear some talk, it's like he was a multi-year vet in a familiar offense and working with a great supporting cast.

 

3 hours ago, Kemp said:

Nope.

 

I suppose a couple have made it to the NFL without it, but I bet they weren't around long.

 

You said that it was impossible to make it to the NFL without a great work ethic.  Not make it in the NFL.  There have been many QB's who made it to the NFL who didn't have a great work ethic, and they obviously failed.

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It's his opinion and that's his right to express it.  He'll get more publicity here by his stance than jumping on the Josh band wagon.  But, let's face facts, Josh is very inexperienced and don't plenty of us have some doubts??

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47 minutes ago, Stallions said:

It's his opinion and that's his right to express it.  He'll get more publicity here by his stance than jumping on the Josh band wagon.  But, let's face facts, Josh is very inexperienced and don't plenty of us have some doubts??

No more doubts then any other QB going into his second year.

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