Case against first round TEs

[BruceVilanch]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Some experts have Fant in their top 10 on their big board.  It wouldn't be a Tim Tebow or Darrius Heyward-Bay reach.

What about an EJ manuel level reach?

[#34fan]

4 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

BTW I really like Hock, loved Shockey, like Howard, Engram and Njuko. The issue is the production at that draft position, the cost and the other players at more impactful positions.The positional value just does not justify the investment when there are other players who will add more production and value over the life of their contract

 

What could be more impactful than 3rd down conversions and TD's?  -Especially to a team with a 30th -ranked offense last season... What could be of more help on the field to a young, big-armed QB?

 

I think if we let the Jets, or the Cheats take Hockenson, we're going to regret it...  And regret it for a looooong time.

[YattaOkasan]

14 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

BTW I really like Hock, loved Shockey, like Howard, Engram and Njuko. The issue is the production at that draft position, the cost and the other players at more impactful positions.The positional value just does not justify the investment when there are other players who will add more production and value over the life of their contract

So on positional value I think there is first round value (I think other posters agree) BUT the return on that capital takes longer. 

 

This is why I am intrigued with Hock but sorta just want a stud pass rusher instead because we seem to wanting to win now.  If you’re pounding for Hock you’re probably try to set up for the long term.  

Edited April 24, 2019 by YattaOkasan

[BakersBills]

There’s a lot of good ones in this draft, Hockenson Fant sternberger Smithx2 any of those are instant upgrades imo

[billsfan1959]

6 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Let's see the success rate of first round TEs? Who are the players that were OK (TOP 10 players for a 3-6 year period who flirted with the top 5 at times? Very few outright busts?

 

The TE position is overvalued on this board and by some teams. So here is a little TE history

 

First round TEs in NFL history

 

1.) Games Played...In the 1997 draft, Kansas City selected Tony Gonzalez with the 13th overall pick and to date, his 270 games played are the most for a first round tight end.

2.) Receptions... Gonzalez leads all first round tight ends and all at his position with 1,325 catches. The second-highest total by a first round tight end is Greg Olson's 666, followed by Ozzie Newsome at 662.

3.) Receiving Yards...The first round benchmark is Gonzalez, with 15,127 yards, with fellow first-rounders Ozzie Newsome (7,980) and Greg Olson (7,847) the only others to gain at least 7,500 yards.

4.) Touchdowns...Among first round tight ends, Gonzalez again is in sole possession for the title with 111 scores. Vernon Davis tops active first-rounders with 62, followed by Greg Olson with 57. Dallas Clark is the only other first round tight end with at least fifty touchdowns (53).

 

Now a little more info:

 

1.) NFL teams have utilized 978 draft selections to select players at the tight end position,

a) 740 out of the 978 appeared in an NFL game.

b.) 83 in < 10 games 

 

2.) 11 TEs (in NFL history) played in at least 200 games,

a.) 3 are HOFers, Tony Gonzalez (270), Jackie Smith (210) and Shannon Sharpe (204)

 

3.) 500+ receptions (in NFL history) = 14 TEs,

a.) 4 of the 14 are HOFers Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Kellen Winslow and Ozzie Newsome.

b.) Gonzalez receptions (1,352), Jason Witten (Dallas; 2003-17, 19) is the only other tight end with at least 1,000 (1,152).

c.) Sharpe (815), Greg Olson (666), Newsome (662) and Jimmy Graham (611) are the only other tight ends to inch past the 600-catch level.

 

4.) 9 TEs in NFL history at least 7,000 yards receiving:

a.) Gonzalez ( 15,127 ), Shannon Sharpe (10,060 yards), Ozzie Newsome (7,980) and Jackie Smith (7,918). The only other tight end with at least 10,000 yards (12,448) is Jason Witten.

b.) Rob Gronkowski, (7,861 yards). The other three members are all currently active - Greg Olson has gained 7,847 yards, followed by Vernon Davis (7,439) and Jimmy Graham (7,436).

 

5.) 12 TEs (in NFL history) have at least 50TDs

a.)  Gonzalez (111 TDs). Gronkowski (79 TDs) and Jimmy Graham leads all active tight ends with 71. Shannon Sharpe (62 TDs).

b.) Only others with 60+ TDs are: Witten (68), Vernon Davis (62) and former Redskin Jerry Smith (60).

c.) Greg Olson (57) Wesley Walls (54) Dallas Clark (53) Ben Winter Coates (50)

 

6.) Except for Sharpe (seventh round), Jerry Smith (ninth) and Coates (fifth), all members of the 50-Touchdown Club went during the first three rounds of the draft.

 

Edit: @Nihilarian @Mojo44@billsfan1959 Sorry I don't see the value in Round1 and history as a predictive indicator of RD1 success for a TE is pretty damn bleak

I had two points regarding your assertions.

 

First, you can make the same argument (specious as it is) about any position drafted in the first round, as success (per your definition) rates are low for all of them.

 

Second, draft history has no predictive value regarding individual players. I have addressed this same argument with posters who cite the lack of success of QBs in the NFL that had sub 60% completion rates in college as a predictive indicator of Josh Allen's success/failure.

 

(1) The sample size of TEs drafted in the first round is too small to draw any significant statistical conclusions and (2)  even if there was a large enough sample size, it would have no relevance whatsoever regarding whether or not Hockenson should be selected in the first round or whether or not he will be successful. Those are group statistics. 

 

For example, if I told you that the average life expectancy of a male in the US was 72 years of age and that 70% of all men die by the time they are 82,  it would not mean that you have a 70% chance of dying by the time you are 82 years old. As a matter of fact, it would mean nothing at all in regard to your personal life expectancy.  That would depend on variables unique to you.  Statistics might suggest that 70% of all men die by the time they are 82 years old; however, they cannot in any way say whether you are in the 70% that will die by age 82 or the 30% that will live longer. 

 

 It is the same with Hockenson. He will succeed or fail based solely on variables unique to him. The statistical analyses of any group of tight ends, or how well or how poorly any specific tight end played, or where they were selected in the draft, in the entire history of the NFL, has no relevance at all to Hockenson.

 

None.

Edited April 24, 2019 by billsfan1959

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

 

 

Plus I think there was one guy a few years back who didn't perform all that well, right?

[maryland-bills-fan]

10 hours ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

I don't care.  Hockenson will be the next Gronkowski.  Take him at 9!
- JM57

   The OP cautioned that it might take 2-5 years before the TE understands the pro game and develops the instinctive smarts to be good at blocking edge rushers, blitzing (or not blitzing) linebackers, finding the soft spots in zones and analyzing what defense is actually being played (versus 'shown'), so they can find the seam and not screw their QB.

    Are you willing to wait 3 or more years for this?   College offenses are usually spread offenses and the defenses are built to stop them.  The TE has a whole new learning curve.  Might it be better to use more mature players here? 

 

10 hours ago, inaugural balls said:

 

So we can never have a relevant TE?

Yes you can.  Draft a good guy in a later round and get him trained. Also, substitue TE's who have different performance envelopes and run plays that use their best abilities.  You get a mismatch because the LB/safeties have to be generalists because they have to defend against run/short pass/ bump for long pass on every play.

 

10 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I am still a Hockenson at #9 guy.  I think he is the best TE prospect to come out of college in the last 20 years.  If he is there at #9, and it is looking increasingly likely that he will already be gone, I think the Bills should grab him and not look back.

 

Elite run blocker.

Elite pass blocker.

Elite receiver.

Process guy.

True #1 weapon for Allen.

Position of need.

Kittle from same program, Pro-Bowl year 2

 

I don't know how you pass on him.

 

IF you get a great DE/DT/LB  who is better.

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

That article is irrelevant as most of the teams with top tight ends are also top offensive teams. Now all NFL teams are looking to find one of those top tight ends for their offense. 

 

Zack Ertz Eagles 116 receptions, the #2 receiver in 2018, playoffs!

 

Travis Kelce 103 receptions Kansas City, playoffs

 

Gronk, Patriots, playoffs, super bowl winners

 

George Kittle, SF, 88 receptions for 1377 yards

 

Austin Hooper, Falcons 71 receptions

 

Jared Cook, Raiders, 68 receptions

 

Eric Ebron, Colts, 66 receptions, playoffs

 

Teams have discovered what the Patriots have known for years about having a top pass catching TE. What happened in the past is in the past.

 

I see three tight ends going in the first round this year. Hock, Noah Fant and Irv Smith. 

 

 

 

 

You picked the top seven TEs?

 

Eagles 14

Chiefs 1

Pats 5

Niners 16

Falcons 6

Raiders 23

Colts 7th

 

Three out of the top seven are ranked 14th or below in offense. I don't think you made your point.

 

I'd argue that if you look at the good teams on your list here what they have in common is that they're QB'd by some of the best in the business. That's probably not going to be the case in Buffalo, at least for another two or three years, if it happens, and I hope that it does.

 

 

And you're being a bit choosy about who are the best TEs.  The top ten in receptions are

 

1) Ert

2) Kelce

3) Kittle

4) Hooper

5) Cook

6) Ebron

7) Rudolph

8 ) Njoku

9) Graham

T-1010) Burton

T-10) Reed

 

Four out of those 11 teams made the playoffs.

 

Top ten in yards:

 

1) Kittle

2) Kelce

3) Ertz

4) Cook

5) Ebron

6) Gronk

7) Hooper

8 )  Njoku

9) Graham

10) Rudolph

 

Three out of those 10 teams made the playoffs.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Simon Says]

10 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

But,15 or so have gone in the first round since 03

[maryland-bills-fan]

8 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

That article is irrelevant as most of the teams with top tight ends are also top offensive teams. Now all NFL teams are looking to find one of those top tight ends for their offense. 

 

Zack Ertz Eagles 116 receptions, the #2 receiver in 2018, playoffs!

 

Travis Kelce 103 receptions Kansas City, playoffs

 

Gronk, Patriots, playoffs, super bowl winners

 

George Kittle, SF, 88 receptions for 1377 yards

 

Austin Hooper, Falcons 71 receptions

 

Jared Cook, Raiders, 68 receptions

 

Eric Ebron, Colts, 66 receptions, playoffs

 

Teams have discovered what the Patriots have known for years about having a top pass catching TE. What happened in the past is in the past.

 

I see three tight ends going in the first round this year. Hock, Noah Fant and Irv Smith. 

 

 

Gee, you forgot to consider whether these were pretty damn good offensive teams BEFORE they got this TE, or did the TE make them an offensive juggernaught.     A high draft pick TE, is a luxury AFTER you get the rest right.  High grade OT before spending a high 1st pick on a TE.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

Passing on Hock at 9 would be inconceivable!

Knowing what we know now, would you have drafted any of these TEs in the first round?

 

 

No, I wouldn't.

 

Ridiculous argument, though.

 

I mean, sure, if we knew how Hockenson was going to turn out, then yeah you'd draft him based on that. But we very much don't know the future.

 

They got drafted where they were based on what people knew at the time, same as will happen this and every year.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Nanker]

10 hours ago, dubs said:

 

Paraphrasing: What are you going to do with Hock?  Put him at D Tackle or watch him sit on the bench while the bills get the ball stuffed down their throat!?!?

 

did I do that right?

 

 

Thanks for pointing out that The Bills have just one pick in this Draft and are completely out of cap space so signing any FAs is off the table too. 

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Heath Miller in 2005 drafted 30th overall borderline HOF career contributor on some very successful Steelers teams. 

 

Vernon Davis in 2006 was drafted 6th overall and he turned in a good career.

 

Mercedes Lewis in 2006 drafted 28th overall and he played a long career turning in a 6 year stretch where he was one of the top 10

tightends in the league and probably would have been better had he not been on an awful team most of his career.

 

Greg Olsen in 2007 was drafted 30th overall and turned in a HOF career

 

Dustin Keller in 2008 was drafted 30th overall and turned into one of the top 5 TE's in the league for a 2-3 year period before a catastrophic injury derailed his career. 

 

Brandon Pettigrew in 2009 was drafted 20th overall never an elite TE but turned in a 4 year stretch of top 10 to 5 production before injury derailed his career. 

 

Jermaine Gresham in 2010 was drafted 21st overall opened his career with a 5 year stretch turning in top 10 to 5 production before injuries knocked him down a peg although he hung around longer than Pettigrew and Keller.

 

Tyler Eifert the first true bust of this bunch although Eifert put together a very good 2015 he never eclipsed 500 yards outside of that one season. 

 

From 2005 to 2013 there were 8 Tight Ends drafted in the first round. I would say 3-4 were great players. Davis, Olsen, and Miller that more than justified their first round billing. I would then say that Lewis is borderline as while he was never elite he was a good player consistently for a long time and probably would have been a top 5 TE in the league had he been on a better team. 

 

I would then say 3 players Pettigrew, Gresham, and Keller gave you 4 years or more of top 10 production at their position before injuries derailed their careers or declined their careers. So can you call them busts? That depends, in the NFL 4 years isn't a short time to produce at an elite level, but for a player drafted in the first round you at least want 7-8 highly productive years. So I would put them as a semi-bust. 

 

I would only say that 1 TE drafted in the first round is really a bust and that's Eifert who only turned in one good season. That leaves the TE position in the first round at the following hit rate. 

 

50% Hit (HOF or borderline HOF career) 

37.5 Somewhere in the middle (4-5 years of high end production) 

12.5% Outright Bust (No prolonged stretch of production)

 

 

Heath Miller is a borderline HOF player? No, he really isn't. With two pro bowls in eleven seasons, he really is not a borderline HOFer.

 

Marcedes Lewis managed 1006 yards total in his first three years. A good solid guy, but as a first rounder, not a great pick. One pro bowl in 13 years.

 

Greg Olsen may indeed be a HOFer, though it's not a sure thing. But as the OP points out, he was not especially productive in his first five years. Do we want to wait that long?

 

Dustin Keller ... "one of the top 5 TEs in the league for a 2-3 year period"? Really? Not seeing that, dude, not at all. One year over 687 yards and was never a great blocker. In what year was he top 5? 2011, when he ranked 17th in both receptions and yards? 2010, when he was 11th in receptions and 9th in yards? In 2011 he was at least a bit close, 9th in receptions and 6th in yards. Not much of a blocker and was never a big TD guy, which is one of the main reasons you want a TD ... 17 TDs in five years. Zero pro bowls. Yeah, not seeing that at all. 

 

Brandon Pettigrew? "4 year stretch of top 10 to 5 production"? Zero pro bowls. 

 

Good grief, dude, are you trolling your own argument here? 17 TDs in 7 years? You've wildly overestimated pretty much every one of these guys. "50% HOF or borderline HOF career"? Of that bunch of mostly pretty decent players? Seriously? Good grief. Most of them wouldn't be in consideration for the Hall of Very Good.

 

Other than Olsen these guys were disappointments for first rounders. And Olsen as pointed out took till well into his second contract to become top-flight.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

11 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

Outside of the quarterback position, tight ends have the steepest learning curve when transitioning to the NFL. The reason it can take years for a player to acclimate to an offense and develop into a starter is that the position demands a player to be a dependable piece in both the running and passing game. That means understanding the blocking scheme and how to read defenses from a blocking and passing game perspective. It's also a time for these 21-22-year olds, who are competing against the most athletic and skilled players they've ever faced, to continue to fill out their frame and learn technique because there is zero room for error in the trenches. Then there is always the time it takes to polish your route running, possibly expanding your route tree and gaining rapport with your quarterback. Until a player can develop an all-around game they'll be pigeonholed into a limited role.

 

Drafting and developing a tight end is the ultimate patience play and it can understandably be uncomfortable and difficult to hold strong when you see other first-rounders become instant impact players. The Lions are a perfect example of this. They drafted Eric Ebron 10th overall in 2014 and low and behold the next seven picks would make a Pro Bowl while still on their rookie deal.  Those players selected would include the likes of Aaron Donald and Odell Beckham. Last offseason, Detroit decided to move on from Ebron as they determined that he wasn't worth the price tag of his 5th-year option ($8.25M). 

 

Both the franchise and the player are in a tough spot. Eric Ebron arguably wasn't worth paying $8.25M but he also was progressing like the majority of successful tight ends do. And that's exactly the point! It is really worth investing your most important draft asset into a player who may take years to develop and you may not see the benefit until four years down the road or until their second contract? Is there a better use of your resources?

 

Greg Olsen has a similar story to Ebron. He was taken 31st overall in the 2007 draft by the Chicago Bears. He put up respectable production his first four years and heading into his 5th season he was shipped off to Carolina where he continued to grow and later became a Pro Bowler and All-Pro on his 2nd and 3rd contracts.

 

http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/replacing-gronkowski

 

Numerous tight ends made a huge impact early on...

Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, Reed- They just happened to be picked up in rds 2-3.

 

if you re did those respective drafts today, they’d certainly be first rounders. 

 

To me this whole line of thought speaks more about a past problem projecting TEs from college to pros or teams overvaluing a position they don’t use enough in their scheme.  

 

So whatever tangibles have pushed some of these others into rd 1 in the past look to be the wrong ones. 

 

At some point folks are going to start getting it right 

 

 

 

 

[racketmaster]

I'd be surprised if we went TE in the first. Hockenson is going to be a very good TE and would be a good fit in Buffalo but I just don't see him as a special talent. The TE class is super deep this year and it is a position that teams regularly find excellent talents in the middle rounds. Here are my top reasons against TE in the first for the Bills.

 

1. People are sleeping on Tyler Croft. The Bills signed him quickly in free agency and he appeared to be high on their target list. He got a decent contract and when he got the starting spot in 2017 he was a productive tight end for the Bengals. I believe Croft is still only 25 years old and we may not have seen his best football yet. I do believe the Bills need to draft a tight end this year, but I don't think it is as big a need as some would have us believe.

 

2. The tight end class this year is very deep. It begins with Hockenson and his teammate Fant but there are at least 10-12 talented prospects at this position. A player like Trevon Wesco can be had in the 5th or 6th and if you watch his blocking ability (excellent) and how nimble he is with the ball in his hands he has some potential. There are a lot of interesting tight end prospects in the middle rounds from Jayce Sternberger to Kaden Smith. Many of these players show excellent potential and have had excellent college production. If the Bills wait, they can still find a good prospect in the middle rounds. George Kittle was an afterthought in the 2017 draft (5th round) as he had little production at Iowa and we have seen how he has exploded in the NFL.

 

3. If you examine the quality and elite tight ends playing in the league right now, you will notice that the majority of them come from the 2nd and 3rd rounds. In fact, when I looked at the numbers more came from the 2nd (30%) and 3rd (30%) than the 1st round (20%). And with the depth this year at the position I see no reason to think this trend won't continue. Hockenson may be the safest tight end pick, but can anyone really say that he will be better than a player like Jayce Sternberger. To me it is too close and for that reason I would wait at the position and draft for value beginning in the second round. And with the depth this year, I think there will be a productive player or two found in the 4th and 5th rounds.

[ROCBillsBeliever]

11 hours ago, fansince88 said:

47 hours and 12 minutes to go!!!! will we make it?

 

We shall all expire, my friend. Take heart, though... there's always next year ???

[maryland-bills-fan]

8 hours ago, #34fan said:

Hm. Maybe go back and watch some Iowa games... Because of Iowa's offensive style, Hock ended up doing may of the things he'll be asked to do in the pros.

 

I don't think he's anything like Ebron at NC or Olsen at the U.... TBH, I've never seen a better route running TE at the college level... And a better run-blocking TE, you simply won't find.

 

Hock is one of a kind... If you were talking about Drew Sample, or kahale Warring, I might agree, but Hock is in a completely different category... -Easy money at 9.

Have you ever considered that:

 

#1 the Iowa tight ends got more catches and more targets then ALL their wide receivers.

 

#2 they mostly were playing against college linebackers who ever will play in the NFL.     Look at their schedule last year:

     and look at when they played against.   Here are the best linebackers they played.    How will they do when the LB's are smarter and a half second faster in the 40?

 

Using Walter Football

college OLB

#17   Andre Van Ginkel                Wisconsin               round 5-7

#18  R. Connelly                            Wisconsin               round 5-7

 

college ILB

#7  Blake Cashman,                  Minnesota                round 3-5

#11 T.J. Edwards,                     Wisconsin                 round 3-5

 

By the way,  the success rates of drafted LB making the nlf by round is approximately

round               success %

3                           34%

4                           16%

5                           4%

6                           5% 

7                            2%

 

Might you suspect that a team who throws more to the TE than all the WR is runnng a gimmic offense?  Does that translate to the pros?

Edited April 24, 2019 by maryland-bills-fan

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Have you ever considered that:

 

#1 the Iowa tight ends got more catches and more targets then ALL their wide receivers.

 

#2 they mostly were playing against college linebackers who ever will play in the NFL.     Look at their schedule last year:

     and look at when they played against.   Here are the best linebackers they played.    How will they do when the LB's are smarter and a half second faster in the 40?

 

Might you suspect that a team who throws more to the TE than all the WR is runnng a gimmic offense?  Does that translate to the pros?

This just might be the worst assessment I have read regarding Hockenson….

 

Have you actually watched any film on him? 

[DefenseWins]

Very, very few players dominate as soon as they step on an NFL playing field - regardless of position played. There is a learning curve that ALL players go through. You are drafting a player for the long term. That is one reason coaches don't like to play rookies if at all possible. It simply takes time for a player to adjust to going up against the best of the best on a weekly basis. TE's also tend to be handicapped a bit because they usually excell at either blocking or pass catching but usually not both. Remember that in college an athlete can get by on natural ability because he is not going up against great opposition on a weekly basis. College results can be very misleading. If you draft an OT early with the intent to play him from day one he is gonna be playing all 3 downs for you every offensive series. That is not necessarily true of TE's. A lot also depends, as others have pointed out in this thread, on how many other offensive weapons are present on the roster as well. Eric Moulds and Bruce Smith were not all everything in their rookie seasons just to name a couple. I could name many, many more players who didn't shine straight away.

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

12 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

This just might be the worst assessment I have read regarding Hockenson….

 

Have you actually watched any film on him? 

Yes.  I'm an old guy. If you put me in a football uniform and had me run pass patterns against an even older slower guy, I might look pretty good.  Be aware of what most nfl rookies say.  They can't believe the speed of the pro game.  Part of that is speed and part of that is that the players are all smart and instictive.

 

[zonabb]

Totally flawed logic. The TA position has gone through a rapid transition and change in its role and importance in the game. By this failed argument, you should ignore that evolution, the stats put up by the players list by round and not draft a TE in round 1 even if you feel like he's a 100 catch, 1,000 yard player. But if a WR is projected as such, then get him in round 1. Got it. Totally logical. 

[JM57]

28 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

Might you suspect that a team who throws more to the TE than all the WR is runnng a gimmic offense?  Does that translate to the pros?

 

I would suspect that means that Iowa, a noted NFL TE factory, had NFL talent at that position and not at WR...

[billsfan1959]

Just now, maryland-bills-fan said:

Yes.  I'm an old guy. If you put me in a football uniform and had me run pass patterns against an even older slower guy, I might look pretty good.  Be aware of what most nfl rookies say.  They can't believe the speed of the pro game.  Part of that is speed and part of that is that the players are all smart and instictive.

 

And this is relevant to Hockenson, how?

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Gee, you forgot to consider whether these were pretty damn good offensive teams BEFORE they got this TE, or did the TE make them an offensive juggernaught.     A high draft pick TE, is a luxury AFTER you get the rest right.  High grade OT before spending a high 1st pick on a TE.

The Buffalo Bills went out and drafted their franchise QB before the offensive line was worth a damn!

My lord that 2018 Buffalo Bills O line was one of the worst the last two decades! Then, they only had one good player on that line out of five and his play went south due to such inferior talent next to him. 

 

Ever hear the phrase, "you strike while the fire is hot"? The Bills did that last year with the QB because the Bills FO saw their future franchise QB in a very rich QB draft. The prospects this year pale in comparison. 

 

This year the draft looks to have a "Tony Gonzalez" type TE. Now, top tight ends aren't usually considered first round material...unless of course the scouts grade them as such!

 

Gonzalez was was graded as a first round pick back in 1997 and KC decided to trade from #18 to #13 and draft him. This year the draft has a possible three tight ends graded in the first round, TJ Hockenson, Irv Smith and Noah Fant.  The thing is, Hock isn't just graded as a first rounder! He has been graded as a top 10 pick by the majority of the media/ex-scouts.

 

Look at the people grading this player,

Gil Brandt, Has Hock as the 6th best player in the draft.

Todd McShay has Hock going #7 to the Jags.

Ex-scout for several NFL teams Daniel Jeremiah compares Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to former TV broadcaster Jason Witten and a top 10 pick.

Ex-Buffalo Bill, ex-NFL scout NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks lists Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson is one of the "gold jacket" prospects in the 2019 NFL Draft class. A top ten pick.

Walter Football's Charlie Campbell compares Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to Philadelphia Eagles TE Zack Ertz.

The Athletic's Dane Brugler believes Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson has a "complete skill set."

Mel Kiper sent Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson to the Lions at No. 8 overall

 

I could go on and on with the scouts. The point here is that not many tight ends have ever been graded this high...ever! for several reasons. Like Josh Allen and watching him play at Wyoming, it was like watching a eighth graders playing against a senior. Hock was the same way.

 

TJ Hockenson doesn't just block people, he "rag dolls" them! He pancakes them! He is an elite blocker.

 

Hock doesn't just "catch" footballs...he catches everything!  In his two seasons at Iowa he dropped only two passes. Last season he dropped one out of 49 passes. 

 

Some of you can go on and on whining about no tight end is first round worthy... and yet there is an exception to everything. I can recall before last years draft 98% of this board hated the idea of drafting Josh Allen and most wanted Josh Rosen. So much so that I kept reading that the Bills FO should give up the farm in 2018 (meaning the majority of the early draft picks) to trade up with the NY Giants at #2 and ahead of the Jets at #3 to draft Josh Rosen. Some even wanted to give up this years first rounder too. Just goes to show...

Edited April 24, 2019 by Nihilarian

[maryland-bills-fan]

 

38 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

And this is relevant to Hockenson, how?

You failed to notice that Hockenson's performance was all against linebackers who will probably not make a NFL roster.  Film showing wonderful things needs to consider that it shows the performance against relatively slower linebackers who don't react as quickly as the best linebackers.  When you watch film, you don't see the absolute speeds but the relative speeds of those players. 

[eball]

12 hours ago, mrags said:

 

I was was a big Fant guy over Hock. I’m starting to turn. 

 

After seeing Fant's Wonderlic scores I'm wondering how he ties his own shoelaces.

[WideNine]

13 hours ago, mrags said:

You can make an argument that besides Line and QB. The TE position is in the field more than any other position in football (assuming they are very good). I say go without shock at 9. 

 

I was was a big Fant guy over Hock. I’m starting to turn. 

 

I was in your shoes last fall. Was digging into receivers the Bills should target and came away unimpressed.

 

Just too little gap between the guys that had a late 1st round grade and the crowded field with 2nd round grades. I started focusing then on the TE class in particular Fant who was considered the top prospect.

 

I was trying to understand why the Hawks coach Ferentz was sitting Fant and playing their red shirt sophomore Hockenson and came away understanding why Hock was a special 3 down TE that was hard to take off the field.

 

That did not fully explain why Fant "the destroyer of secondaries" was warming the pine. Sure he has critical drops on occasion and the blocking was not as polished, but IMO the effort was there and he was almost impossible to cover.

 

He was certainly in the coaches doghouse and I have no idea why. We have seen rumors from scouts that he is a "coach killer" not sure why.

 

The difference maker to me was that Fant was the athletic flex TE more in the mold of Ebron and Hernandez, Hernandez had better hands. Hockenson was more that complete TE a coach could leave on the field and as a red shirt sophomore there was still room for the kid to grow into his frame and get stronger.

 

I still think Fant has amazing athletic skills and could end up being better. His resume just has more unexplainable questions. That and the occasional drops. I admittedly had a low tolerance for dropped passes after last season.

 

Skills alone they are both very good TE prospects in a year where the WR class lacks clear blue-chip talent hence I think the bump into the early 1st round.

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by WideNine

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

22 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

The Buffalo Bills went out and drafted their franchise QB before the offensive line was worth a damn!

My lord that 2018 Buffalo Bills O line was one of the worst the last two decades! Then, they only had one good player on that line out of five and his play went south due to such inferior talent next to him. 

 

Ever hear the phrase, "you strike while the fire is hot"? The Bills did that last year with the QB because the Bills FO saw their future franchise QB in a very rich QB draft. The prospects this year pale in comparison. 

 

This year the draft looks to have a "Tony Gonzalez" type TE. Now, top tight ends aren't usually considered first round material...unless of course the scouts grade them as such!

 

Gonzalez was was graded as a first round pick back in 1997 and KC decided to trade from #18 to #13 and draft him. This year the draft has a possible three tight ends graded in the first round, TJ Hockenson, Irv Smith and Noah Fant.  The thing is, Hock isn't just graded as a first rounder! He has been graded as a top 10 pick by the majority of the media/ex-scouts.

 

Look at the people grading this player,

Gil Brandt, Has Hock as the 6th best player in the draft.

Todd McShay has Hock going #7 to the Jags.

Ex-scout for several NFL teams Daniel Jeremiah compares Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to former TV broadcaster Jason Witten and a top 10 pick.

Ex-Buffalo Bill, ex-NFL scout NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks lists Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson is one of the "gold jacket" prospects in the 2019 NFL Draft class. A top ten pick.

Walter Football's Charlie Campbell compares Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to Philadelphia Eagles TE Zack Ertz.

The Athletic's Dane Brugler believes Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson has a "complete skill set."

Mel Kiper sent Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson to the Lions at No. 8 overall

 

I could go on and on with the scouts. The point here is that not many tight ends have ever been graded this high...ever! for several reasons. Like Josh Allen and watching him play at Wyoming, it was like watching a eighth graders playing against a senior. Hock was the same way.

 

TJ Hockenson doesn't just block people, he "rag dolls" them! He pancakes them! He is an elite blocker.

 

Hock doesn't just "catch" footballs...he catches everything!  In his two seasons at Iowa he dropped only two passes. Last season he dropped one out of 49 passes. 

 

Some of you can go on and on whining about no tight end is first round worthy... and yet there is an exception to everything. I can recall before last years draft 98% of this board hated the idea of drafting Josh Allen and most wanted Josh Rosen. So much so that I kept reading that the Bills FO should give up the farm in 2018 (meaning the majority of the early draft picks) to trade up with the NY Giants at #2 and ahead of the Jets at #3 to draft Josh Rosen. Some even wanted to give up this years first rounder too. Just goes to show...

 

...FWIW, seems to be that TE spot is 2nd most neglected right behind QB spot (pre Josh) in this club's lore......Pete, Jay R and probably Campbell were the last good ones.....some day we need to get a top flight TE so we can smoke the opposition like they have smoked us for YEARS......

[Canadian Bills Fan]

[Jumpsuit Jim]

So the thesis of this post is “Tight Ends aren’t worth a first round pick because they rarely develop into elite 1st round football players before their rookie contract runs out”.

 

Most football analysts will say that the easiest, most plug-and-play out of the box from college to pro position is running back. I have also heard football people saying that one of the hardest transitions (outside of quarterback) is O Line because collegiate football is so different offensively than pro. 

 

So if we apply the original thesis to all positions, we should take running backs in the first round and offensive linemen in the latter rounds. 

 

I find the OP’s thesis to be a recipe for failure.  Null and void. 

[WideNine]

18 minutes ago, Jumpsuit Jim said:

So the thesis of this post is “Tight Ends aren’t worth a first round pick because they rarely develop into elite 1st round football players before their rookie contract runs out”.

 

Most football analysts will say that the easiest, most plug-and-play out of the box from college to pro position is running back. I have also heard football people saying that one of the hardest transitions (outside of quarterback) is O Line because collegiate football is so different offensively than pro. 

 

So if we apply the original thesis to all positions, we should take running backs in the first round and offensive linemen in the latter rounds. 

 

I find the OP’s thesis to be a recipe for failure.  Null and void. 

 

A well thought out counterpoint.

 

Also, the past is not always a clear predictor of the future. A good place to start, but should be a weighted consideration.

 

We should also consider the game where player roles evolve with schemes that rise and fall in popularity, where CBA and free agency limit how players can be used or coached.

 

All these things impact the importance of positions and the kind of investment and expectations fans should have regarding their team's approach to filling those roles.

 

All this being said, my support of taking a solid TE early does not mean I will be upset if the Bills go defense first.

 

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by WideNine

[Shaw66]

13 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

Outside of the quarterback position, tight ends have the steepest learning curve when transitioning to the NFL. The reason it can take years for a player to acclimate to an offense and develop into a starter is that the position demands a player to be a dependable piece in both the running and passing game. That means understanding the blocking scheme and how to read defenses from a blocking and passing game perspective. It's also a time for these 21-22-year olds, who are competing against the most athletic and skilled players they've ever faced, to continue to fill out their frame and learn technique because there is zero room for error in the trenches. Then there is always the time it takes to polish your route running, possibly expanding your route tree and gaining rapport with your quarterback. Until a player can develop an all-around game they'll be pigeonholed into a limited role.

 

Drafting and developing a tight end is the ultimate patience play and it can understandably be uncomfortable and difficult to hold strong when you see other first-rounders become instant impact players. The Lions are a perfect example of this. They drafted Eric Ebron 10th overall in 2014 and low and behold the next seven picks would make a Pro Bowl while still on their rookie deal.  Those players selected would include the likes of Aaron Donald and Odell Beckham. Last offseason, Detroit decided to move on from Ebron as they determined that he wasn't worth the price tag of his 5th-year option ($8.25M). 

 

Both the franchise and the player are in a tough spot. Eric Ebron arguably wasn't worth paying $8.25M but he also was progressing like the majority of successful tight ends do. And that's exactly the point! It is really worth investing your most important draft asset into a player who may take years to develop and you may not see the benefit until four years down the road or until their second contract? Is there a better use of your resources?

 

Greg Olsen has a similar story to Ebron. He was taken 31st overall in the 2007 draft by the Chicago Bears. He put up respectable production his first four years and heading into his 5th season he was shipped off to Carolina where he continued to grow and later became a Pro Bowler and All-Pro on his 2nd and 3rd contracts.

 

http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/replacing-gronkowski

This is quite interesting.   I'm not sure it's correct, but it has logic on its side.  

 

So it follows that the smart move in looking for tight ends is to draft one in later rounds and keep doing it until one turns into a star.   And look for a star in free agency.  In the meantime, what you need is a guy (exactly the kind of guy McDermott loves) who will spend all of his time and energy and whatever athletic ability he has learning all the difficult stuff you describe.  That guy likely will be as productive as a first-round, future Pro Bowl guy while the future Pro-Bowl guy is learning all the stuff he has to learn.   

 

This analysis brings me back to a conclusion I reached several years ago, which is that tight end just isn't that important a position that it makes sense to use an early first-round choice on one.  It's not so much that the position isn't important, because it's become more important in the past 10 years; it's just that you get better value at other positions high in the first-round.  It just isn't very likely that you're going to find a tight end high in the first round who is going to change your team in his first two or three years.   Sure, you MIGHT find a Gronk, but you can get a good offensive tackle high in the first round, and he's going to play for you from day one and make an impact on your team.  The chances of finding a Gronk, who impacts your team from day one, are pretty small.  

 

I know fans love one tight end coming out, but I'll be disappointed if that's the Bills' pick at 9.   I mean, if he's the pick, I'm sure Beane will know what he's doing, but I view a tight end pick at 9 as a high risk proposition.   With a much higher likelihood of success, you can get an offensive or defensive lineman at 9, and I believe that success in the first round is one of the most important principles in good team building.   QB is the only position that merits a high-risk, high-reward approach in the first round.   Spiller and Maybin were high-risk, high-reward, and those picks impacted the Bills' future for years.  

[Reed83HOF]

10 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

So on positional value I think there is first round value (I think other posters agree) BUT the return on that capital takes longer. 

 

This is why I am intrigued with Hock but sorta just want a stud pass rusher instead because we seem to wanting to win now.  If you’re pounding for Hock you’re probably try to set up for the long term.  

The purpose of this post was to spur discussion on this topic and positional value in RD1. As I have said I like Hock and have high on my list of prospects based on talent, but there are some issues. 

 

The general thought on RD1 players is that they should be immediate contributors in today's NFL, it isn't the pre-free agency and pre-salary cap era, where they can sit on the bench and ripen; they need to play now. TE production there first few years is generally very low, the need to go through the learning curve of playing OL and WR in the NFL - that is 2 positions they need to become proficient in.

 

TE in the first round is a luxury pick and contribute very little during their rookie contract. If you can get 90% of the player in RD2 or lower, the contributions you rely on to win now are lessened, they have more time to develop and the cost of the contract is minimized so you can spend more on the premium positions that are able to contribute to winning now. Taking a player in RD1 to play in the long run is a waste of RD1 resources.

[Reed83HOF]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is quite interesting.   I'm not sure it's correct, but it has logic on its side.  

 

So it follows that the smart move in looking for tight ends is to draft one in later rounds and keep doing it until one turns into a star.   And look for a star in free agency.  In the meantime, what you need is a guy (exactly the kind of guy McDermott loves) who will spend all of his time and energy and whatever athletic ability he has learning all the difficult stuff you describe.  That guy likely will be as productive as a first-round, future Pro Bowl guy while the future Pro-Bowl guy is learning all the stuff he has to learn.   

 

This analysis brings me back to a conclusion I reached several years ago, which is that tight end just isn't that important a position that it makes sense to use an early first-round choice on one.  It's not so much that the position isn't important, because it's become more important in the past 10 years; it's just that you get better value at other positions high in the first-round.  It just isn't very likely that you're going to find a tight end high in the first round who is going to change your team in his first two or three years.   Sure, you MIGHT find a Gronk, but you can get a good offensive tackle high in the first round, and he's going to play for you from day one and make an impact on your team.  The chances of finding a Gronk, who impacts your team from day one, are pretty small.  

 

I know fans love one tight end coming out, but I'll be disappointed if that's the Bills' pick at 9.   I mean, if he's the pick, I'm sure Beane will know what he's doing, but I view a tight end pick at 9 as a high risk proposition.   With a much higher likelihood of success, you can get an offensive or defensive lineman at 9, and I believe that success in the first round is one of the most important principles in good team building.   QB is the only position that merits a high-risk, high-reward approach in the first round.   Spiller and Maybin were high-risk, high-reward, and those picks impacted the Bills' future for years.  

 

It has really made me re-think this position. Especially when I started to look into career stats, 500+ receptions, 50+ TDs etc = there are not many in NFL history ~11-14 of them with only 8 in the HOF. For a first rounder who catches passes I would want someone who will have more that 500 career catches and 50 TDs, especially in the top 10. I agree 100% with your conclusion. 

 

@BADOLBILZ has the best positions on what should be taken in round wise (QB, Pass Rusher, CB, LT, WR are Rd1 one guys - I'm close with this not exact LOL). There is a reason for this, they impact your chances of winning and losing each game the most and can contribute quickly. This matches up well with the free agency $$ you see when these guys hit the marketplace. 

[Reed83HOF]

3 hours ago, Georgie said:

But,15 or so have gone in the first round since 03

Who are the 15 and what are their stats there first 2-4 years in the league? What other impact players who would contribute to wins or losses were bypassed to pick these players? I'm not doing the homework on your claim, show me the data...

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

The purpose of this post was to spur discussion on this topic and positional value in RD1. As I have said I like Hock and have high on my list of prospects based on talent, but there are some issues. 

 

The general thought on RD1 players is that they should be immediate contributors in today's NFL, it isn't the pre-free agency and pre-salary cap era, where they can sit on the bench and ripen; they need to play now. TE production there first few years is generally very low, the need to go through the learning curve of playing OL and WR in the NFL - that is 2 positions they need to become proficient in.

 

TE in the first round is a luxury pick and contribute very little during their rookie contract. If you can get 90% of the player in RD2 or lower, the contributions you rely on to win now are lessened, they have more time to develop and the cost of the contract is minimized so you can spend more on the premium positions that are able to contribute to winning now. Taking a player in RD1 to play in the long run is a waste of RD1 resources.

I agree with this, except I think it's extremely hard to prove.   The pro-TE folks aren't buying it.  

 

I've pretty much come around to the view that the winning formula is to have a franchise QB and have good total talent on the team, regardless of the rest of the positions.  That's Belichick's approach.   Shut-down corner is about the only position where he really wants a special talent.   

 

I think McB are following this approach.  They want really good athletes dedicated to their team concept, and they want to get better every day, every week, every year.  Year by year they upgrade the talent by taking the most talented players available to them.   And in evaluating talent, I think they factor in the positions that players play.   We had a brief discussion a couple weeks ago about how a guy who is a spectacular 3-4 LB prospect needs to be evaluated based on his importance to the team in the scheme the team plays, so no matter how good he is in the 3-4, the question is how good will he be in the 4-3.  That is, 3-4 skills aren't fundamental to how the Bills play football.   The extreme, silly example is the best punter in the history of football may be in the draft class, but he isn't your BPA because punting isn't fundamental to how you play football.  

 

Similarly, unless you're going to do what Belichick did with Gronk and Hernandez, tight end isn't fundamental to how the Bills want to play football.  Protecting to the quarterback is fundamental.  Getting at the other QB is fundamental.  Having a HOF tight end isn't any more important to the Bills' philosophy than a HOF OLB or a HOF wideout.  Taking a shot at the potential of a tight end makes more sense than taking a shot at a first-round punter,  but it makes less sense than taking a shot at the potential in a lineman.  

[Reed83HOF]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Numerous tight ends made a huge impact early on...

Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, Reed- They just happened to be picked up in rds 2-3.

 

if you re did those respective drafts today, they’d certainly be first rounders. 

 

To me this whole line of thought speaks more about a past problem projecting TEs from college to pros or teams overvaluing a position they don’t use enough in their scheme.  

 

So whatever tangibles have pushed some of these others into rd 1 in the past look to be the wrong ones. 

 

At some point folks are going to start getting it right 

 

 

 

 

It's not about redoing a draft. What did those players contribute in their first 2-4 years in the league? Who are the numerous TEs who had a huge impact early on and what was the roster like on those teams? The production out of a first rounder is just not quite there...

 

Gronk

 

Ertz

 

Shockey

 

 

[Wayne Cubed]

1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:

Look at the people grading this player,

Gil Brandt, Has Hock as the 6th best player in the draft.

Todd McShay has Hock going #7 to the Jags.

Ex-scout for several NFL teams Daniel Jeremiah compares Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to former TV broadcaster Jason Witten and a top 10 pick.

Ex-Buffalo Bill, ex-NFL scout NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks lists Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson is one of the "gold jacket" prospects in the 2019 NFL Draft class. A top ten pick.

Walter Football's Charlie Campbell compares Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to Philadelphia Eagles TE Zack Ertz.

The Athletic's Dane Brugler believes Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson has a "complete skill set."

Mel Kiper sent Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson to the Lions at No. 8 overall

Geez, could your man crush be more obvious for Hock... Anyways just for fun...

 

What they thought of OJ Howard:

Gil Brandt, Has Howard as the 13th best player in the draft.

Todd McShay has Howard going #4 to the Jags. 

Ex-scout for several NFL teams Daniel Jeremiah ranks Alabama TE OJ Howard 7th  best player in the draft, the safest pick and a top 10 pick.

Ex-Buffalo Bill, ex-NFL scout NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks says "Howard is the most complete tight end prospect to enter the league in the past decade." Said he could go top ten.

Walter Football's Charlie Campbell compares Alabama TE OJ Howard to Carolina Panthers TE Greg Olsen.

CBS Sports Dane Brugler believes Alabama TE OJ Howard has a "complete tight end."

Mel Kiper sent Alabama tight end OJ Howard  to the Jets at No. 6 overall

 

And one more for ya..

Mike Mayock, former scout, former NFLN Analyst draft guru and current Raiders GM has OJ Howard going #6 to the Jets

 

See what I did there? You are putting far far too much stock in the media personalities opinion of Hockenson. And with all those lofty expectations, how was Howard preformed thus far? Well it's all ready been pointed out in this thread so, I'm sure you've seen. PFF had Howard rated as the worst performer of the entire 1st round in 2017.

 

I get it, you are really banging the table for Hock, you've made ya mind up. I honestly don't care what all those people think of Hockenson, I've watched him and I've made my own mind up on him. The GMs for 32 teams have made up their own mind on him and he'll go where they think he should based on what they believe his value is.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Wayne Cubed

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

It has really made me re-think this position. Especially when I started to look into career stats, 500+ receptions, 50+ TDs etc = there are not many in NFL history ~11-14 of them with only 8 in the HOF. For a first rounder who catches passes I would want someone who will have more that 500 career catches and 50 TDs, especially in the top 10. I agree 100% with your conclusion. 

 

@BADOLBILZ has the best positions on what should be taken in round wise (QB, Pass Rusher, CB, LT, WR are Rd1 one guys - I'm close with this not exact LOL). There is a reason for this, they impact your chances of winning and losing each game the most and can contribute quickly. This matches up well with the free agency $$ you see when these guys hit the marketplace. 

I agree.  I think it's easy to fall in love with the best NFL tight ends, because they seem to make a lot of plays, but in the grand scheme I think it's unusual for a tight end to be a major long-term impact player for your team.   Look at Graham when he went to Seattle.   He was going to make their offense devastating.   The reality is it's tough for a TE to be the guy who drives the offense.  

 

I don't know about BADO's list, only because I'm not even sold on wideouts.   Other than QB, shut-down corner and an occasional safety, I don't think skill position players have the impact on the team that linemen and linebackers do.  

 

I think BPA is defined in part by importance to the team.  Not in terms of need, just in terms of how important the position is the schemes you're running.   I think more or less every coach will tell you that the overall strength of his offensive line and his defensive line is more important than the overall strength of his receiver room.  That translates into this:  if you have a receiver prospect and an offensive line prospect, and their potential to be All-Pro is exactly equal, the lineman is your BPA.   Not because you have a need, but because your team is better served long-term with a star lineman than a star receiver.  

 

And I put tight end behind the wideouts in that analysis.   So I think it's hard for a TE to be your BPA at 9.   The position just isn't as important as some others.  In other words, I think a tight end who is worth a pick at 9 just isn't as important to the team as an offensive tackle who is worth a pick at 9.   

[Reed83HOF]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with this, except I think it's extremely hard to prove.   The pro-TE folks aren't buying it.  

 

I've pretty much come around to the view that the winning formula is to have a franchise QB and have good total talent on the team, regardless of the rest of the positions.  That's Belichick's approach.   Shut-down corner is about the only position where he really wants a special talent.   

 

I think McB are following this approach.  They want really good athletes dedicated to their team concept, and they want to get better every day, every week, every year.  Year by year they upgrade the talent by taking the most talented players available to them.   And in evaluating talent, I think they factor in the positions that players play.   We had a brief discussion a couple weeks ago about how a guy who is a spectacular 3-4 LB prospect needs to be evaluated based on his importance to the team in the scheme the team plays, so no matter how good he is in the 3-4, the question is how good will he be in the 4-3.  That is, 3-4 skills aren't fundamental to how the Bills play football.   The extreme, silly example is the best punter in the history of football may be in the draft class, but he isn't your BPA because punting isn't fundamental to how you play football.  

 

Similarly, unless you're going to do what Belichick did with Gronk and Hernandez, tight end isn't fundamental to how the Bills want to play football.  Protecting to the quarterback is fundamental.  Getting at the other QB is fundamental.  Having a HOF tight end isn't any more important to the Bills' philosophy than a HOF OLB or a HOF wideout.  Taking a shot at the potential of a tight end makes more sense than taking a shot at a first-round punter,  but it makes less sense than taking a shot at the potential in a lineman.  

I'm in 100% agreement. I get the arguments on the pro-TE guys side of the fence; they can certainly be game changers, they create mismatches and can open up the field up. I am all for having one or 2 and I want them on my team. The TE we signed in FA will give us a couple years to groom someone we presumably draft this year, waiting a couple years for the first rounder to be an everyday player and impact the win column is not what I want out of a first rounder. 

 

What Beane has said about TE's this offseason: 

 

1.) “To me, you draft the best player available,” Beane said. “If the so-called premium positions are gone, or if you don’t have a guy that is up there at a premium position, you shouldn’t take him.”

 

2.) Beane said he breaks down tight ends in three categories: pass catcher, run blocker, and pass blocker. “So as we’re going through these tight ends those are the three areas we focus on,” Beane said. “We did privates with certain guys and we went to pro days with guys from a lot of positions and that position as well.”

 

3.) "There's some guys that are some really good blockers but maybe they're not as good as receivers. There's some guys that you really don't want to block in a six tech but they're great in the passing game. So similar to receivers, there's different flavors at tight end and we've done our homework there. Free agency will be first, but the draft, there's some depth at tight end. From my point of view, and same as free agency, there's some guys that are really good athletes that maybe we need to improve their blocking. Or maybe they weren't asked to block, so we’ve got to do some more research and maybe they can once they’re taught, but there will be a growth opportunity for them if given the opportunity, whatever team they're on.”

 

4.) “If there’s truly depth at any position,” he said, “then that allows you push that need down the draft.”

 

I think we can all agree on what the premium positions are (QB, PR, CB, OT, and to a degree WR)

 

I'm not trying to convince anyone to change their viewpoint and agree with me. I am hoping that some of our fellow posters are able to see and understand the flip side of the coin and have a healthy discussion. It makes us all better!