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Reed83HOF

Case against first round TEs

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3 hours ago, racketmaster said:

I'd be surprised if we went TE in the first. Hockenson is going to be a very good TE and would be a good fit in Buffalo but I just don't see him as a special talent. The TE class is super deep this year and it is a position that teams regularly find excellent talents in the middle rounds. Here are my top reasons against TE in the first for the Bills.

 

1. People are sleeping on Tyler Croft. The Bills signed him quickly in free agency and he appeared to be high on their target list. He got a decent contract and when he got the starting spot in 2017 he was a productive tight end for the Bengals. I believe Croft is still only 25 years old and we may not have seen his best football yet. I do believe the Bills need to draft a tight end this year, but I don't think it is as big a need as some would have us believe.

 

2. The tight end class this year is very deep. It begins with Hockenson and his teammate Fant but there are at least 10-12 talented prospects at this position. A player like Trevon Wesco can be had in the 5th or 6th and if you watch his blocking ability (excellent) and how nimble he is with the ball in his hands he has some potential. There are a lot of interesting tight end prospects in the middle rounds from Jayce Sternberger to Kaden Smith. Many of these players show excellent potential and have had excellent college production. If the Bills wait, they can still find a good prospect in the middle rounds. George Kittle was an afterthought in the 2017 draft (5th round) as he had little production at Iowa and we have seen how he has exploded in the NFL.

 

3. If you examine the quality and elite tight ends playing in the league right now, you will notice that the majority of them come from the 2nd and 3rd rounds. In fact, when I looked at the numbers more came from the 2nd (30%) and 3rd (30%) than the 1st round (20%). And with the depth this year at the position I see no reason to think this trend won't continue. Hockenson may be the safest tight end pick, but can anyone really say that he will be better than a player like Jayce Sternberger. To me it is too close and for that reason I would wait at the position and draft for value beginning in the second round. And with the depth this year, I think there will be a productive player or two found in the 4th and 5th rounds.

 

The Tyler Kroft signing buys you time to develop a TE, who can excel in all 3 areas Beane looks at; developmental prospects simply are not to be taken in RD1 unless your team is built well enough and has had enough success you can afford that luxury; the Bills are not that team. 

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5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I have to say I don't buy this "help out Allen" thing.   What will help out Allen is (1) his continuing to learn how to read and recognize NFL defenses, (2) how to adjust the offense to what he sees in the defenst and (3) getting him an offensive line that protects him and supports a decent running game.  If he has those thinks, the Bills just need to have receivers who know how to run routes and hold on to the ball.  Receivers get open based on scheme, and a well-run offense with a QB who knows what he's looking at always gets a receiver open somewhere.  Sure, a stud TE or a stud #1 wideout makes life easier for a QB, but a stud receiver can't cover for an inadequate QB nearly as well as a stud QB can cover for an inadequate receiver.  

 

Allen HAS to be good, and getting a receiver to "make" him good is a bogus concept.  

 

Have you seen the low light clip of dropped passes from last year?  If you haven't, go watch it and then decide if you don't need talented pass catchers.  No matter how good a QB is a guy has to be able to catch the damn ball.

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14 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

 

Have you seen the low light clip of dropped passes from last year?  If you haven't, go watch it and then decide if you don't need talented pass catchers.  No matter how good a QB is a guy has to be able to catch the damn ball.

Shaw said: "the Bills just need to have receivers who know how to run routes and hold on to the ball" Being able to hold on to the ball is a prerequisite for a WR. Look at the top dynamic WRs in the NFL - how many SBs do those teams have with them on it?

 

Look at what NE does year in year out "Receivers get open based on scheme, and a well-run offense with a QB who knows what he's looking at always gets a receiver open somewhere." 

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2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Shaw said: "the Bills just need to have receivers who know how to run routes and hold on to the ball" Being able to hold on to the ball is a prerequisite for a WR. Look at the top dynamic WRs in the NFL - how many SBs do those teams have with them on it?

 

Look at what NE does year in year out "Receivers get open based on scheme, and a well-run offense with a QB who knows what he's looking at always gets a receiver open somewhere." 

 

Edelman and Gronk are just schemed open...  Please.  Those guys win vs coverage all the time.

 

Do you think Chiefs fans are upset they have Kelce and T Hill because they can't really tell how good Mahomes is now because of all the talent around him..

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My biggest argument FOR drafting a tight end in the first round was aptly stared by an earlier poster: The NFL is becoming a passing league. Having that big, fast tight end that DBs can’t take down one on one and LBs can’t run with is a vital aspect of today’s short yard and red zone offense. Vital enough to spend a first round pick on.

 

As as far as taking a few years to learn the position, so what? For the most part, only running backs are plug-and-play. And their importance is diminishing. And does anybody really believe  that the high quality tight ends who have worked through the learning curve and are now hitting on all cylinders would ever be allowed to hit the open market? Would Philly really let Ertz walk? And would you be willing to pay the price to get him? Especially when TJ will probably be better than him?

 

in this draft, I can easily see three tight ends being taken in the first round. I can also see a tight end being taken before any wideouts are taken. Welcome to the new NFL.  

 

And for the record, I would be happy with 5 or so different guys at 9. TJ is one of them. DK, not so much, but I would live with it. 

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2 hours ago, Wayne Cubed said:

CBS Sports Dane Brugler believes Alabama TE OJ Howard has a "complete tight end."

 

That's getting a bit personal...

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1 minute ago, eball said:

 

That's getting a bit personal...

 

Haha whoops, what can I say the guy likes what he likes.

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1 hour ago, HeHateMe said:

 

Have you seen the low light clip of dropped passes from last year?  If you haven't, go watch it and then decide if you don't need talented pass catchers.  No matter how good a QB is a guy has to be able to catch the damn ball.

Did you see where I said the Bills need receivers who know how to run routes and hold on to the ball?   I didn't say damn ball, but I could have. 

1 hour ago, HeHateMe said:

 

Edelman and Gronk are just schemed open...  Please.  Those guys win vs coverage all the time.

 

Do you think Chiefs fans are upset they have Kelce and T Hill because they can't really tell how good Mahomes is now because of all the talent around him..

Gronk is freak who is a great runner for his size.  I've already excepted Gronk from my discussion of drafting tight ends.   

 

Edelman is just a very good athlete who works and studies incredibly hard and gets open, yes, because of scheme.  There are plenty of guys in the league with same ability to get open in the short game, but none of them plays in a scheme that takes advantage.    Do you really think Edelman has that kind of success playing ANYWHERE else in the league.   Patriot receivers are notoriously mediocre as soon as they leave Belichick and Brady.  

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17 hours ago, inaugural balls said:

 

So we can never have a relevant TE?

The Bill's have been in existence for 60 years and not 1 year have they had an elite top 5 TE.  I want Oliver before TJ but if Ed is gone you pick the "Hock". It's like 2 picks in one. An extra blocking lineman and a playmaking safety valve for Josh.

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31 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Did you see where I said the Bills need receivers who know how to run routes and hold on to the ball?   I didn't say damn ball, but I could have. 

Gronk is freak who is a great runner for his size.  I've already excepted Gronk from my discussion of drafting tight ends.   

 

Edelman is just a very good athlete who works and studies incredibly hard and gets open, yes, because of scheme.  There are plenty of guys in the league with same ability to get open in the short game, but none of them plays in a scheme that takes advantage.    Do you really think Edelman has that kind of success playing ANYWHERE else in the league.   Patriot receivers are notoriously mediocre as soon as they leave Belichick and Brady.  

 

So you agree we need good pass catchers, glad we are on the same page there.

 

Edelman only gets open because of scheme... smh I'm done with you.  If there was ever less of a need for scheme between players it's with Edelman and Brady.  Get a clue.  

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3 hours ago, Wayne Cubed said:

Geez, could your man crush be more obvious for Hock... Anyways just for fun...

 

What they thought of OJ Howard:

Gil Brandt, Has Howard as the 13th best player in the draft.

Todd McShay has Howard going #4 to the Jags. 

Ex-scout for several NFL teams Daniel Jeremiah ranks Alabama TE OJ Howard 7th  best player in the draft, the safest pick and a top 10 pick.

Ex-Buffalo Bill, ex-NFL scout NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks says "Howard is the most complete tight end prospect to enter the league in the past decade." Said he could go top ten.

Walter Football's Charlie Campbell compares Alabama TE OJ Howard to Carolina Panthers TE Greg Olsen.

CBS Sports Dane Brugler believes Alabama TE OJ Howard has a "complete tight end."

Mel Kiper sent Alabama tight end OJ Howard  to the Jets at No. 6 overall

 

And one more for ya..

Mike Mayock, former scout, former NFLN Analyst draft guru and current Raiders GM has OJ Howard going #6 to the Jets

 

See what I did there? You are putting far far too much stock in the media personalities opinion of Hockenson. And with all those lofty expectations, how was Howard preformed thus far? Well it's all ready been pointed out in this thread so, I'm sure you've seen. PFF had Howard rated as the worst performer of the entire 1st round in 2017.

 

I get it, you are really banging the table for Hock, you've made ya mind up. I honestly don't care what all those people think of Hockenson, I've watched him and I've made my own mind up on him. The GMs for 32 teams have made up their own mind on him and he'll go where they think he should based on what they believe his value is.

If you read about OJ Howard you would have seen that many thought he was "underutilized"  at Alabama! So what a lot of scouts saw was what they thought/ projected he could do in the NFL.

 

First off, as a rookie OJ went to an NFL offense that was ranked 18 in points, 9th in yards with a troubled QB throwing that went 3-10 in 2017.  Not only that, OJ Howard has ended up on injured reserve in his two seasons in the NFL 14 game starts in 2017, 8 game starts in 2018.  Kind of difficult to properly evaluate a player when has been seriously injured in his only two seasons. 

 

Not every NFL player realizes their potential as TE Eric Ebron also fell on his face in Detroit until he went to Indy and has Andrew Luck throwing his way last season. Different scheme?  Anyway, I never banged the table for OJ Howard and I get the comparison that when fans see a draft failure they think it will apply to the next guy at that position. There is also a steep learning curve for tight ends in the NFL and sometimes it takes time.

 

 

Watch the college game film on both players and you will see for yourself the difference between the two players. Hock is an unreal blocker and only two dropped passes in two seasons! Jeez, could the Bills use a receiver that catches nearly everything thrown his way? All I saw last season in Buffalo was drop after drop by most Bills receivers. 

 

Yes, I'm a fan and I like Hockenson just like i liked Josh Allen last season when so many Bills fans were discrediting him like they are with Hock. The difference is that while the Bills could really use a Gronkowski type TE, they could also use a #1 WR, a star LT, a DT, a pass rusher. This year isn't like last season where they were looking for the face of the franchise QB.

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4 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

If you read about OJ Howard you would have seen that many thought he was "underutilized"  at Alabama! So what a lot of scouts saw was what they thought/ projected he could do in the NFL.

 

First off, as a rookie OJ went to an NFL offense that was ranked 18 in points, 9th in yards with a troubled QB throwing that went 3-10 in 2017.  Not only that, OJ Howard has ended up on injured reserve in his two seasons in the NFL 14 game starts in 2017, 8 game starts in 2018.  Kind of difficult to properly evaluate a player when has been seriously injured in his only two seasons. 

 

Not every NFL player realizes their potential as TE Eric Ebron also fell on his face in Detroit until he went to Indy and has Andrew Luck throwing his way last season. Different scheme?  Anyway, I never banged the table for OJ Howard and I get the comparison that when fans see a draft failure they think it will apply to the next guy at that position. There is also a steep learning curve for tight ends in the NFL and sometimes it takes time.

 

 

Watch the college game film on both players and you will see for yourself the difference between the two players. Hock is an unreal blocker and only two dropped passes in two seasons! Jeez, could the Bills use a receiver that catches nearly everything thrown his way? All I saw last season in Buffalo was drop after drop by most Bills receivers. 

 

Yes, I'm a fan and I like Hockenson just like i liked Josh Allen last season when so many Bills fans were discrediting him like they are with Hock. The difference is that while the Bills could really use a Gronkowski type TE, they could also use a #1 WR, a star LT, a DT, a pass rusher. This year isn't like last season where they were looking for the face of the franchise QB.

 

I appreciate your response but I'm not comparing the player or them as draft prospect. I'm comparing what was said about them coming out. It's easy to play that game. 

 

And Hockenson would be coming into an offense ranked 30th, so I'm not quite sure what you are getting at with that point.

 

Look the point of this thread is that looking at TEs they don't particularly preform well in their rookie contracts, with some exceptions. It takes them a while to adjust to the NFL. A first round pick, especially at 9, you want to come in and have an instant impact. You get these players for 5 years on the cheap an you get elite production from them, hopefully.  Sure, Hockeson is a safe pick but he probably won't light the league up next year.  IMO, he's not the next Gronk. Is he a good TE, yes for sure and the Bills need that but the value for that isn't at 9 when there could be players that could come in and transform the team right away.

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26 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

 

So you agree we need good pass catchers, glad we are on the same page there.

 

Edelman only gets open because of scheme... smh I'm done with you.  If there was ever less of a need for scheme between players it's with Edelman and Brady.  Get a clue.  

Edelman has nice punt-return man quickness and change of direction.  That's a real skill.   

 

But all you see from Edelman are the plays where the scheme gives him a favorable one on one matchup, especially against linebackers, but not necessarily.  That favorable matchup might just be what part of the field the defense is giving him. And it's almost always on very short routes.   Longer routes, he doesn't have the speed to beat DBs, so he isn't much of a threat there.  You don't see him creating space 15 yard sideline patterns.  

 

He's a talented guy, works his tail off, but he is a product of their scheme, just like Welker before him.   Good punt return man who's in a scheme that suits his particular skills.  

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7 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

I appreciate your response but I'm not comparing the player or them as draft prospect. I'm comparing what was said about them coming out. It's easy to play that game. 

 

And Hockenson would be coming into an offense ranked 30th, so I'm not quite sure what you are getting at with that point.

 

Look the point of this thread is that looking at TEs they don't particularly preform well in their rookie contracts, with some exceptions. It takes them a while to adjust to the NFL. A first round pick, especially at 9, you want to come in and have an instant impact. You get these players for 5 years on the cheap an you get elite production from them, hopefully.  Sure, Hockeson is a safe pick but he probably won't light the league up next year.  IMO, he's not the next Gronk. Is he a good TE, yes for sure and the Bills need that but the value for that isn't at 9 when there could be players that could come in and transform the team right away.

Aside from the fact that Josh Allen was a rookie last season and injured for 5 games. The 2018 Buffalo Bills threw deep more often than any other NFL team (percentage wise) and part of the problem was that the Bills were so bad on offense was the drop percentage by Bills receivers! Between Zay Jones and Kelvin Benjamin they missed on 85 targets.

 

While new receiver John Brown 43.3 catch% and Zay Jones 54.9 catch%, Robert Foster 61.4 catch% will stretch defenses and you have McCoy 73.9 catch%, Beasley 74.7 catch% for the underneath to mid range stuff. The Bills don't have a reliable tight end like Gronk, Ertz, Kelce that will help a young QB further develop and catch those mid to deep passes.  

 

Sure, Beasley and Shady will help in the short pass game but when the team goes for a two tight end look and the defense thinks "stop the run" now you have a TE that can slip a block and make a play. A position that can block DE's, can outrun LBers and be difficult for DB's to tackle on an elite level has been a position of need for the Buffalo Bills in forever. Charles Clay was supposed to be that player....21 receptions for 184 yards with a 58.3 catch% last season. 

 

Dunno about you, but I would love to have a TE in Buffalo who only dropped two passes the last two seasons and who could be the go to guy in a pass heavy offense. 

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Posted (edited)

 

7 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

#1 the Iowa tight ends got more catches and more targets then ALL their wide receivers.

 

Might you suspect that a team who throws more to the TE than all the WR is runnng a gimmic offense?  Does that translate to the pros?

 

If anything, more targets is an even bigger selling point. You want the kid who can handle 80-100 targets, IMO.  Look at what the league's top TE's  cranking out:

 

Travis Kelce 2018        150 targets

Zach Ertz 2018             156 targets

George Kittle 2018       136 targets

Rob Grokowski 2017   105 targets

 

You bet your @ss it translates to the pro's... If you don't have great wideout, or a RB who's prolific in the passing game like the Saints, Rams, and Patriots do,    a reliable TE is the next best bet.

 

I get your point about Value... I truly wish we didn't need an excellent blocking/catching TE...  I wish there'd be one as-good available in the 3rd-4th, but there isn't.

Hockenson @ 9 starts helping this offense from day 1.

 

7 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

#2 they mostly were playing against college linebackers who ever will play in the NFL.     Look at their schedule last year:

     and look at when they played against.   Here are the best linebackers they played.   

 

Using Walter Football

college OLB

#17   Andre Van Ginkel                Wisconsin               round 5-7

#18  R. Connelly                            Wisconsin               round 5-7

 

college ILB

#7  Blake Cashman,                  Minnesota                round 3-5

#11 T.J. Edwards,                     Wisconsin                 round 3-5

 

By the way,  the success rates of drafted LB making the nlf by round is approximately

round               success %

3                           34%

4                           16%

5                           4%

6                           5% 

7                            2%

 

 

What comp did Kelce play against at Cincinatti? 

 

What about George Kittle? He comes from the exact same system at Iowa, and he's not lagging in the least...

 

As far a the LB competition goes, I'm sure Hock played a few Lorenzo Alexanders (UDFA), Matt Judons (5th round), and Danny Trevathans (6th round) as well...-We just don't know those kids names yet.  

 

 

Edited by #34fan
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I'm anti-1st round TE. Especially that high. My case: the batting average of busts for every TE taken in the 1st round.

 

Also the relatively low production for many that weren't quite busts. We're shooting for that rare tier one TE, of which there's maybe 2 or 3 clear top guys, that really end up anywhere in the draft. Seems like one of the riskiest positions to go high in.

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48 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

Look the point of this thread is that looking at TEs they don't particularly preform well in their rookie contracts, with some exceptions. It takes them a while to adjust to the NFL. A first round pick, especially at 9, you want to come in and have an instant impact. You get these players for 5 years on the cheap an you get elite production from them, hopefully.  Sure, Hockeson is a safe pick but he probably won't light the league up next year.  IMO, he's not the next Gronk. Is he a good TE, yes for sure and the Bills need that but the value for that isn't at 9 when there could be players that could come in and transform the team right away.

This is correct. Nowhere has it ever been said that you don't need a TE or the Bills should never have one and I believe everyone is in agreement with that...

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52 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

Look the point of this thread is that looking at TEs they don't particularly preform well in their rookie contracts, with some exceptions. It takes them a while to adjust to the NFL. A first round pick, especially at 9, you want to come in and have an instant impact. You get these players for 5 years on the cheap an you get elite production from them, hopefully.  Sure, Hockeson is a safe pick but he probably won't light the league up next year.  IMO, he's not the next Gronk. Is he a good TE, yes for sure and the Bills need that but the value for that isn't at 9 when there could be players that could come in and transform the team right away.

The point of this thread was to say that history indicates tight ends shouldn't be selected in the 1st round. That argument is a non-starter as there is absolutely no correlation between the history of drafting tight ends (in any round) and where Hockenson should be selected or how successful he will be. All the rest is pure speculation, such as your assertion he " he probably won't light the league up next year." 

 

People are welcome to their opinions; however, trying to wrap them up in some sort of scientific/statistical confirmation is, IMO, ridiculous.

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13 minutes ago, #34fan said:

If anything, more targets is an even bigger selling point. You want the kid who can handle 80-100 targets, IMO.  Look at what the league's top TE's  cranking out:

 

Travis Kelce 2018        150 targets

Zach Ertz 2018             156 targets

George Kittle 2018       136 targets

Rob Grokowski 2017   105 targets

 

You bet your @ss it translates to the pro's... If you don't have great wideout, or a RB who's prolific in the passing game like the Saints, Rams, and Patriots do,    a reliable TE is the next best bet.

 

I get your point about Value... I truly wish we didn't need an excellent blocking/catching TE...  I wish there'd be one as-good available in the 3rd-4th, but there isn't.

Hockenson @ 9 starts helping this offense from day 1.

 

I'm not sure you get the point on value

 

Travis Kelce 2018        150 targets - Drafted 3rd rd 2013

Zach Ertz 2018             156 targets - Drafted 2nd rd 2013

George Kittle 2018       136 targets - Drafted 5th rd 2017

Rob Grokowski 2017   105 targets  - Drafted 2nd rd 2010

 

So why do I need a TE drafted in RD1, let alone at pick #9? As stated above, OJ Howard had similar comments about him as Hock and other highly rated TEs the last 10 years.

 

A TE does not become reliable within his first couple years, look at the stats for all of them! Their production is amazingly similar to Zay Jones's first 2 years. Very few in NFL history have over 500 receptions and 50 TDs out of the 948 drafted and only 8 are in the HOF.

 

Look at who is listed as top TEs and they are not RD1 players (with a rare exception). Look at the RD1 TEs and look when they became productive, their production does not equal the value of a first round selection. 

3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

The point of this thread was to say that history indicates tight ends shouldn't be selected in the 1st round. That argument is a non-starter as there is absolutely no correlation between the history of drafting tight ends (in any round) and where Hockenson should be selected or how successful he will be. All the rest is pure speculation, such as your assertion he " he probably won't light the league up next year." 

 

People are welcome to their opinions; however, trying to wrap them up in some sort of scientific/statistical confirmation is, IMO, ridiculous.

 

And QBs shouldn't be drafted in the first round, neither should DE, nor DL, nor CBs, now WRs, nor OT, nor OG, nor LB, nor P, nor K etc.

 

Going off of your premise:

 

All round valuations based on positions are "non-starter as there is absolutely no correlation between the history of drafting tight ends any position (in any round) and where Hockenson any player should be selected or how successful he will be. All the rest is pure speculation, such as your assertion he " he probably won't light the league up next year." 

 

People are welcome to their opinions; however, trying to wrap them up in some sort of scientific/statistical confirmation is, IMO, ridiculous."

 

Now that is a ridiculous statement.

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5 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

It's not about redoing a draft. What did those players contribute in their first 2-4 years in the league? Who are the numerous TEs who had a huge impact early on and what was the roster like on those teams? The production out of a first rounder is just not quite there...

 

Gronk

image.thumb.png.b69b0cd432e59a025b05a34eac4aeb51.png

 

Ertz

image.thumb.png.cf2c370660853fc47f63a94c73c6c76a.png

 

Shockey

image.thumb.png.67b46d1124f83c5391be2de5e40e2227.png

 

 

 

90 catches and 1300 yards 17 tds  is pretty darn good for a second year right end. Over 70 catches for Ertz in years 3-4.

 

kelce years 2-4 are outstanding. 

 

I guess I can go as far as to say if they do draft a TE in Rd 1 he better be more like gronk or Kelce than shockey 

 

 

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19 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

Outside of the quarterback position, tight ends have the steepest learning curve when transitioning to the NFL. The reason it can take years for a player to acclimate to an offense and develop into a starter is that the position demands a player to be a dependable piece in both the running and passing game. That means understanding the blocking scheme and how to read defenses from a blocking and passing game perspective. It's also a time for these 21-22-year olds, who are competing against the most athletic and skilled players they've ever faced, to continue to fill out their frame and learn technique because there is zero room for error in the trenches. Then there is always the time it takes to polish your route running, possibly expanding your route tree and gaining rapport with your quarterback. Until a player can develop an all-around game they'll be pigeonholed into a limited role.

 

Drafting and developing a tight end is the ultimate patience play and it can understandably be uncomfortable and difficult to hold strong when you see other first-rounders become instant impact players. The Lions are a perfect example of this. They drafted Eric Ebron 10th overall in 2014 and low and behold the next seven picks would make a Pro Bowl while still on their rookie deal.  Those players selected would include the likes of Aaron Donald and Odell Beckham. Last offseason, Detroit decided to move on from Ebron as they determined that he wasn't worth the price tag of his 5th-year option ($8.25M). 

 

Both the franchise and the player are in a tough spot. Eric Ebron arguably wasn't worth paying $8.25M but he also was progressing like the majority of successful tight ends do. And that's exactly the point! It is really worth investing your most important draft asset into a player who may take years to develop and you may not see the benefit until four years down the road or until their second contract? Is there a better use of your resources?

 

Greg Olsen has a similar story to Ebron. He was taken 31st overall in the 2007 draft by the Chicago Bears. He put up respectable production his first four years and heading into his 5th season he was shipped off to Carolina where he continued to grow and later became a Pro Bowler and All-Pro on his 2nd and 3rd contracts.

 

http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/replacing-gronkowski

I agree however they would be drafting an IOWA TE and Iowa is a TE factory. Iowa TE's develop faster like Dallas Clark. Kittle in SF last year and a couple others.

 

Personally I would let someone else develop them and try and get them on 2nd contract like you mentioned is when they show better results.

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Anti TE guys are ignoring that first year players are usually not studs right off the bat and there is a learning curve for all rookies no matter the position.. Because we think production may not be as high in year 1 and 2 as it is in their prime, we probably shouldn't draft anybody by that logic..

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Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

  • If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates.
  • TEs have a pretty reasonable chance of turning out in most rounds.

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It is foolish to take a tight end inside of the top 10.

 

Remember how awesome Coby Fleener was supposed to be?  Exactly.

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10 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

The point of this thread was to say that history indicates tight ends shouldn't be selected in the 1st round. That argument is a non-starter as there is absolutely no correlation between the history of drafting tight ends (in any round) and where Hockenson should be selected or how successful he will be. All the rest is pure speculation, such as your assertion he " he probably won't light the league up next year." 

 

People are welcome to their opinions; however, trying to wrap them up in some sort of scientific/statistical confirmation is, IMO, ridiculous.

 

And you are completely missing the point. No one is trying to correlate the round a player is selected and whether they will be successful or not. It's about positional value. I think coaches/GMs understand which positions transition better to the NFL and where that value is. 

 

4 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

Anti TE guys are ignoring that first year players are usually not studs right off the bat and there is a learning curve for all rookies no matter the position.. Because we think production may not be as high in year 1 and 2 as it is in their prime, we probably shouldn't draft anybody by that logic..

 

I can show you a player taken from a premier position(QB, OT, EDGE, CB) that WAS a stud right away. Multiple players in fact.

3 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

  • If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates.
  • TEs have a pretty reasonable chance of turning out in most rounds.

 

So now we only care if our number 9 pick is a bust or not?  I mean come on, that's ridiculous.

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