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Reed83HOF

Case against first round TEs

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Outside of the quarterback position, tight ends have the steepest learning curve when transitioning to the NFL. The reason it can take years for a player to acclimate to an offense and develop into a starter is that the position demands a player to be a dependable piece in both the running and passing game. That means understanding the blocking scheme and how to read defenses from a blocking and passing game perspective. It's also a time for these 21-22-year olds, who are competing against the most athletic and skilled players they've ever faced, to continue to fill out their frame and learn technique because there is zero room for error in the trenches. Then there is always the time it takes to polish your route running, possibly expanding your route tree and gaining rapport with your quarterback. Until a player can develop an all-around game they'll be pigeonholed into a limited role.

 

Drafting and developing a tight end is the ultimate patience play and it can understandably be uncomfortable and difficult to hold strong when you see other first-rounders become instant impact players. The Lions are a perfect example of this. They drafted Eric Ebron 10th overall in 2014 and low and behold the next seven picks would make a Pro Bowl while still on their rookie deal.  Those players selected would include the likes of Aaron Donald and Odell Beckham. Last offseason, Detroit decided to move on from Ebron as they determined that he wasn't worth the price tag of his 5th-year option ($8.25M). 

 

Both the franchise and the player are in a tough spot. Eric Ebron arguably wasn't worth paying $8.25M but he also was progressing like the majority of successful tight ends do. And that's exactly the point! It is really worth investing your most important draft asset into a player who may take years to develop and you may not see the benefit until four years down the road or until their second contract? Is there a better use of your resources?

 

Greg Olsen has a similar story to Ebron. He was taken 31st overall in the 2007 draft by the Chicago Bears. He put up respectable production his first four years and heading into his 5th season he was shipped off to Carolina where he continued to grow and later became a Pro Bowler and All-Pro on his 2nd and 3rd contracts.

 

http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/replacing-gronkowski

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4 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Outside of the quarterback position, tight ends have the steepest learning curve when transitioning to the NFL. The reason it can take years for a player to acclimate to an offense and develop into a starter is that the position demands a player to be a dependable piece in both the running and passing game. That means understanding the blocking scheme and how to read defenses from a blocking and passing game perspective. It's also a time for these 21-22-year olds, who are competing against the most athletic and skilled players they've ever faced, to continue to fill out their frame and learn technique because there is zero room for error in the trenches. Then there is always the time it takes to polish your route running, possibly expanding your route tree and gaining rapport with your quarterback. Until a player can develop an all-around game they'll be pigeonholed into a limited role.

 

Drafting and developing a tight end is the ultimate patience play and it can understandably be uncomfortable and difficult to hold strong when you see other first-rounders become instant impact players. The Lions are a perfect example of this. They drafted Eric Ebron 10th overall in 2014 and low and behold the next seven picks would make a Pro Bowl while still on their rookie deal.  Those players selected would include the likes of Aaron Donald and Odell Beckham. Last offseason, Detroit decided to move on from Ebron as they determined that he wasn't worth the price tag of his 5th-year option ($8.25M). 

 

Both the franchise and the player are in a tough spot. Eric Ebron arguably wasn't worth paying $8.25M but he also was progressing like the majority of successful tight ends do. And that's exactly the point! It is really worth investing your most important draft asset into a player who may take years to develop and you may not see the benefit until four years down the road or until their second contract? Is there a better use of your resources?

 

Greg Olsen has a similar story to Ebron. He was taken 31st overall in the 2007 draft by the Chicago Bears. He put up respectable production his first four years and heading into his 5th season he was shipped off to Carolina where he continued to grow and later became a Pro Bowler and All-Pro on his 2nd and 3rd contracts.

 

http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/replacing-gronkowski

I don't care.  Hockenson will be the next Gronkowski.  Take him at 9!
- JM57

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47 hours and 12 minutes to go!!!! will we make it?

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You can make an argument that besides Line and QB. The TE position is in the field more than any other position in football (assuming they are very good). I say go without shock at 9. 

 

I was was a big Fant guy over Hock. I’m starting to turn. 

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6 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

I don't care.  Hockenson will be the next Gronkowski.  Take him at 9!
- JM57

 

image.thumb.png.32ecf3ebe62f671f3d60dcca85f282f4.png

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The success or failure of any other tight end chosen in round 1 (or any round) is irrelevant to Hockenson. 

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The NFL Network had their annual big mock draft where they get together 8 “analysts”. Bucky Brooks, picking for the Bills, took Noah Fant at 9 after Hockenson went 7th. If that scenario happens I’ll probably break my TV. That would be one of the biggest NFL draft reaches I’ve ever seen. 

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18 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

image.thumb.png.32ecf3ebe62f671f3d60dcca85f282f4.png

I agree with you, Reed.  I was just pointing out that some posters (e.g. JM57) don't care and still want Hockenson at 9, regardless.

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30 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Outside of the quarterback position, tight ends have the steepest learning curve when transitioning to the NFL. The reason it can take years for a player to acclimate to an offense and develop into a starter is that the position demands a player to be a dependable piece in both the running and passing game. That means understanding the blocking scheme and how to read defenses from a blocking and passing game perspective. It's also a time for these 21-22-year olds, who are competing against the most athletic and skilled players they've ever faced, to continue to fill out their frame and learn technique because there is zero room for error in the trenches. Then there is always the time it takes to polish your route running, possibly expanding your route tree and gaining rapport with your quarterback. Until a player can develop an all-around game they'll be pigeonholed into a limited role.

 

Drafting and developing a tight end is the ultimate patience play and it can understandably be uncomfortable and difficult to hold strong when you see other first-rounders become instant impact players. The Lions are a perfect example of this. They drafted Eric Ebron 10th overall in 2014 and low and behold the next seven picks would make a Pro Bowl while still on their rookie deal.  Those players selected would include the likes of Aaron Donald and Odell Beckham. Last offseason, Detroit decided to move on from Ebron as they determined that he wasn't worth the price tag of his 5th-year option ($8.25M). 

 

Both the franchise and the player are in a tough spot. Eric Ebron arguably wasn't worth paying $8.25M but he also was progressing like the majority of successful tight ends do. And that's exactly the point! It is really worth investing your most important draft asset into a player who may take years to develop and you may not see the benefit until four years down the road or until their second contract? Is there a better use of your resources?

 

Greg Olsen has a similar story to Ebron. He was taken 31st overall in the 2007 draft by the Chicago Bears. He put up respectable production his first four years and heading into his 5th season he was shipped off to Carolina where he continued to grow and later became a Pro Bowler and All-Pro on his 2nd and 3rd contracts.

 

http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/replacing-gronkowski

 

So we can never have a relevant TE?

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Posted (edited)

I am still a Hockenson at #9 guy.  I think he is the best TE prospect to come out of college in the last 20 years.  If he is there at #9, and it is looking increasingly likely that he will already be gone, I think the Bills should grab him and not look back.

 

Elite run blocker.

Elite pass blocker.

Elite receiver.

Process guy.

True #1 weapon for Allen.

Position of need.

Kittle from same program, Pro-Bowl year 2

 

I don't know how you pass on him.

 

Edited by Inigo Montoya
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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, inaugural balls said:

 

So we can never have a relevant TE?

 

Chances sure seem to be greater outside of RD1

 

Edit: purpose of this isn't to troll or anything like that. I found it a very interesting article that made a lot of great points about this position. A rookie TEhas a lot on their plate and you rarely see the RD1 guys work out on their first contract.

 

For every Shockey, you're stumbling across Jerramy Stevens, Marcedes Lewis (Breakout YR 5), Jermaine Gresham, Daniel Graham, Kyle Brady (Breakout YR 7) etc who disappointed on their rookie deals.

Edited by Reed83HOF
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2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

The success or failure of any other tight end chosen in round 1 (or any round) is irrelevant to Hockenson. 

I agree.  I think the success of the individual is a function of good college experience, athletic ability, effort exerted, learning ability of the player, teaching ability of the coaching staff, and the effectiveness of the offensive system in which the player is asked to function.  From everything I have read about Hockenson, he had good development at Iowa, is very athletic, is a high effort guy, and is a very smart player.  The team owns the responsibility to teach what is lacking and put him in a system that fits his ability.  He is the best TE prospect that has come along in a long time.  If he is the BPA at pick #9, there should be no hesitation.  There is a real chance that he will be gone before Pick #9.

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7 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

I agree with you, Reed.  I was just pointing out that some posters (e.g. JM57) don't care and still want Hockenson at 9, regardless.

I know - I wanted you to see that

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32 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

I don't care.  Hockenson will be the next Gronkowski.  Take him at 9!
- JM57

 

Paraphrasing: What are you going to do with Hock?  Put him at D Tackle or watch him sit on the bench while the bills get the ball stuffed down their throat!?!?

 

did I do that right?

 

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Chances sure seem to be greater outside of RD1

 

Honestly, I don't think we're drafting TE with our first pick.

 

But I think a top end TE is essential for JA's progression and rounding out the offense. A top TE prospect should be able to contribute much earlier, IMO.

Edited by inaugural balls

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1 minute ago, inaugural balls said:

 

Honestly, I don't think we're drafting TE with our first pick.

 

But I think a top end TE is essential for JA's progression and rounding out the offense. A top end end prospect should be able to contribute much earlier, IMO.

 

I entirely agree! He has to have good hands to handle the rickets coming at him from Allen - no body catchers need apply. Also I prefer good YAC, I don't want someone who will catch it and fall right over (i'm looking at you Scott Chandler)

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The OP’s rationale for not taking a TE was this high can be applied just as appropriately to WR’s, CB’s and other non QB positions. Not a compelling take to me. I’m not sure I want Hock at 9 but not for this reason. 

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Bills2ref said:

The NFL Network had their annual big mock draft where they get together 8 “analysts”. Bucky Brooks, picking for the Bills, took Noah Fant at 9 after Hockenson went 7th. If that scenario happens I’ll probably break my TV. That would be one of the biggest NFL draft reaches I’ve ever seen. 

Some experts have Fant in their top 10 on their big board.  It wouldn't be a Tim Tebow or Darrius Heyward-Bay reach.

Edited by Doc Brown

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2 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

The OP’s rationale for not taking a TE was this high can be applied just as appropriately to WR’s, CB’s and other non QB positions. Not a compelling take to me. I’m not sure I want Hock at 9 but not for this reason. 

Do a comparison for those other position on the learning curve and getting value out of their contracts in RD1and let's compare. I would be willing to bet that it isn't anywhere near as compelling as this....Read the article

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1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

Some experts have Fant in their top 10 on their big board.  It wouldn't be a Tim Tebow or Darrius Heyward-Bay reach.

Teams do take TEs in RD, but the relative positional value for the pick and the production received during their rookie contract is almost always not worth it.

Just now, Mojo44 said:

Don’t believe everything you read.

Like your post? :lol:

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10 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Teams do take TEs in RD, but the relative positional value for the pick and the production received during their rookie contract is almost always not worth it.

Like your post? :lol:

 OK, it’s very simple. The article is a bunch of BS “data“ which is not probative and you cannot make a decision based on that stuff. You cannot sink your teeth into it. It is just another example of the ubiquitous pre-draft ***** that goes on these days. 

 

 Like I said, it’s simple. Your team has made evaluations  of the top players. You have a certain context in terms of where your team is at right now as far as its development is concerned. You see a seriously talented tight end who you believe, based on all of your assessment of him, can make a major difference on the team. If that is the case, and you have no other player rated ahead of him regardless of position, you take him. Like I said, it is that simple. Why you’re laughing out loud at me It makes me wonder what you’re doing with your hand. 

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Tight ends taken in the first round have a pretty good success rate. Yes some of them have had careers that were OK (Top 10 players for a 3-6 year period flirted with top 5 at times) and careers that started out great but then got derailed due to injury. There are others that were some HOF or near HOF talent. Very few were outright busts. Tight end is a need I wouldn't mind taking a tight end at 9 if Hock is really that kind of caliber of prospect. 

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45 minutes ago, inaugural balls said:

 

So we can never have a relevant TE?

 

Sure we can,just don’t draft him in the 1st round. 

Round 3 seems to be a great spot.

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1 hour ago, fansince88 said:

47 hours and 12 minutes to go!!!! will we make it?

It’s looking bleak 

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